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**Udog** · 12-06-2012, 10:58 AM

NFL odds: Week 14 opening line report

The NFL schedule makers got one right in Week 14 of the season, headlining the slate with a showdown between the top two Super Bowl favorites.

The Houston Texans, priced at +450 to win the Super Bowl, visit the New England Patriots (+350 to win Super Bowl XLVII) on Monday Night Football.

Oddsmakers opened the Patriots as high as 5-point home favorites, however, that spread has since been bet down to as low as -4 at some online books.

“Someone is taking the lead on this and thinks it’s too high,” Jimmy Vaccaro, veteran oddsmaker with William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, told Covers. “But they may not keep it, and there could be buyback by the time this one kicks off.”

New England has won six straight contests to improve to 9-3 SU (7-5 ATS) and sits behind Houston in the AFC playoff picture. The Texans, at 11-1 SU (8-4 ATS), are in the driver’s seat in the conference and trying to hold on to home-field advantage in the final four weeks of the season.

These teams seem destined to play each other in the postseason and Monday’s game will be a good primer for a potential playoff encounter. Vaccaro doesn’t expect either side to hold anything back or worry about tipping their hand before the postseason.

“I don’t know what these two teams don’t know about each other at this point with the scouting world today,” he says. “Chances are the people in Houston weren’t watching the Texans play. They were watching the New England game on Sunday.”

Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins (Pick, 47)

After losing to the Steelers and third-string QB Charlie Batch Sunday, oddsmakers are washing their hands of the Ravens heading into Week 14.

Baltimore is set as a pick’em heading into Washington and Vaccaro could see this spread moving in favor of the Redskins, no matter what happens between them and the Giants Monday.

“I don’t really consider them an elite team,” Vaccaro says of Baltimore. “You saw Batch, who is as old as me, carve up their defense. You can only imagine that Robert Griffin will get his share.”

Vaccaro says this could move to Washington -2.5 if the Redskins defeat New York on Monday Night Football. If they lose, he still expects Washington to go off as a slight home favorite by Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (-4.5, 37.5)

The Chiefs came away with an emotional win over Carolina Sunday, just a day after LB Jovan Belcher shot and killed his girlfriend then shot himself at Arrowhead Stadium in front of coach Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Pioli.

Vaccaro says that while the tragedy has a huge impact on Kansas City and its players, this line would have been similar if the Chiefs and Browns played before the incident.

“There really isn’t an incentive to move this game,” he says. “It’s not like a push past six or a move to a field goal. It’s the right number and will likely stay put.”

San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (N/A)

Books are waiting on the status of Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, who has missed the past three games with a shoulder injury to his throwing arm and a dislocated rib. Third-string QB Charlie Batch led Pittsburgh to a 23-20 win over Baltimore Sunday, passing for 276 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

Vaccaro, who believes Roethlisberger will sit out again, says the Steelers should be around a 3.5-point home favorite with Batch under center. That spread would jump to Steelers -8 with Roethlisberger’s return.

“I think Batch can handle it. San Diego, as far as towel tossers go, is right at the top of the list,” he says. “San Diego gives away these games in the fourth quarter and now has to get on a plane and fly east to take a Pittsburgh team that is all juiced up.”

**Udog** · 12-06-2012, 11:03 AM

Three NFL teams ready for a surprise Super Bowl run

The New York Giants’ run to the Super Bowl started in Week 14 last season, with a thrilling 3-point win over the Dallas Cowboys. From there, the Giants won three of their final four games to earn the NFC’s fourth seed and steamrolled through the playoffs en route to their second championship in five years.

The season before, the Green Bay Packers followed a similar path, translating wins in the final two games of the season into a No. 6 seed before winning three straight road playoff games and knocking off Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV.

Point is, it's around this time that finding the hidden futures value becomes crucial. Spot it before we start to see some major swings, and you'll be laughing come February.

Here are three NFL teams picking up steam heading into Week 14 and their odds to win Super Bowl XLVII:

Washington Redskins (+4,000)

Hopefully you were wise to Washington before Monday’s win over the Giants. That high-profile victory bumped the Redskins from 100-1 to 40-1 to win the Super Bowl at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas.

Washington has won three straight divisional matchups and is just one game behind the Giants for the NFC East lead. The Redskins have a very winnable remaining sked, set as1-point favorites at home to Baltimore this Sunday before visiting Cleveland and Philadelphia, then hosting Dallas in the season finale.

Seattle Seahawks (+3,500)

The risk with taking a shot on Seattle to win the Super Bowl was that the Seahawks couldn’t win away from CenturyLink Field. But, that was before they rolled into the Windy City and stole one from the Bears in Week 13. Just a week after losing in Miami, Seattle showed it doesn’t need the 12th Man to get the job done.

The Seahawks head into Week 14 winners of three of their last four contests, holding out hope for a wildcard spot in the NFC. They’re big 10.5-point home faves hosting Arizona Sunday and follow that divisional clash with two of their final three outings at home (at Buffalo, vs. San Francisco, vs. St. Louis).

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2,000)

After losing to Cleveland in Week 12, the Steelers had nowhere to go but up – and did just that with a win over Baltimore last Sunday. Pittsburgh has been hampered by injuries all season and is still waiting for QB Ben Roethlisberger to return from injuries to his throwing shoulder and ribs. But as long as the defense continues its high level of play, Pittsburgh has a shot to win out.

We could have looked to Cincinnati (+6,000) as the sleeper in the AFC North, but the Bengals are peaking a little too soon and have built a four-game winning streak against some inferior competition. The Steelers’ win over the Ravens was a huge character win for the franchise and it seems like everyone is getting healthy all at once.

**Udog** · 12-06-2012, 11:04 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 14

Denver at Oakland
The Raiders look to build on their 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 meetings with Denver. Oakland is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by only 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+10 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6

Game 101-102: Denver at Oakland (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 133.693; Oakland 126.244
Dunkel Line: Denver by 7 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+10 1/2); Under

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 9

Game 105-106: Baltimore at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.474; Washington 134.590
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over

Game 107-108: Kansas City at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 119.738; Cleveland 131.638
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 12; 34
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 6; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6); Under

Game 109-110: San Diego at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.723; Pittsburgh 134.385
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 111-112: Tennessee at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 124.006; Indianapolis 133.259
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5); Under

Game 113-114: NY Jets at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 130.587; Jacksonville 124.870
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-2 1/2); Over

Game 115-116: Chicago at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 135.833; Minnesota 128.974
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7; 33
Vegas Line: Chicago by 2 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2); Under

Game 117-118: Atlanta at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 133.575; Carolina 132.165
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3 1/2); Over

Game 119-120: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 122.491; Tampa Bay 137.437
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 15; 44
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 7; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-7); Under

Game 121-122: St. Louis at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 132.615; Buffalo 129.411
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 3; 45
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over

Game 123-124: Dallas at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.704; Cincinnati 134.024
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over

Game 125-126: Miami at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.501; San Francisco 145.464
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 19; 35
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 10; 39
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-10); Under

Game 127-128: New Orleans at NY Giants (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 135.415; NY Giants 136.134
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 56
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 5; 53
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+5); Over

Game 129-130: Arizona at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 121.605; Seattle 138.189
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 16 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10; 36
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10); Under

Game 131-132: Detroit at Green Bay (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 129.802 Green Bay 139.596
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10; 47
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-6 1/2); Under

MONDAY, DECEMBER 10

Game 133-134: Houston at New England (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 141.139; New England 142.851
Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: New England by 3 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 12-06-2012, 11:04 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, December 6

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DENVER (9 - 3) at OAKLAND (3 - 9) - 12/6/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 43-69 ATS (-32.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-44 ATS (-24.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 25-46 ATS (-25.6 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 9

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BALTIMORE (9 - 3) at WASHINGTON (6 - 6) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 48-81 ATS (-41.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 10) at CLEVELAND (4 - 8) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 8) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 5) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (4 - 8) at INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 4) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (5 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 10) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (8 - 4) at MINNESOTA (6 - 6) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 8-28 ATS (-22.8 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (11 - 1) at CAROLINA (3 - 9) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 5-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 9) at TAMPA BAY (6 - 6) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (5 - 6 - 1) at BUFFALO (5 - 7) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 126-161 ATS (-51.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 126-161 ATS (-51.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
BUFFALO is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (6 - 6) at CINCINNATI (7 - 5) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DALLAS is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
CINCINNATI is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (5 - 7) at SAN FRANCISCO (8 - 3 - 1) - 12/9/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (5 - 7) at NY GIANTS (7 - 5) - 12/9/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (4 - 8) at SEATTLE (7 - 5) - 12/9/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (4 - 8) at GREEN BAY (8 - 4) - 12/9/2012, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 147-107 ATS (+29.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 10

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HOUSTON (11 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (9 - 3) - 12/10/2012, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 151-111 ATS (+28.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 12-06-2012, 11:05 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Broncos (9-3) @ Raiders (3-9)—Oakland lost last five games (0-5 vs spread), allowing 37.8 ppg; they’re 1-3 as home underdog this year, 9-14-1 since ’08. Denver won last seven games (5-2 vs spread), scoring 30+ points six times, with road wins by 11-8-22-8 points; they’re 2-1 as road favorites this year, 6-4 since 2009. Fox’s defense is creating shorter fields for his offense; eight of last 11 Denver TD’s were on drives of less than 60 yards. Broncos (-6.5) crushed Raiders 37-6 in Week 4, outrushing Oakland 165-56 (TY 503-237)- they were 10-16 on 3rd down, Oakland 1-12. Manning was 30-39/338 passing. Denver won three of last four visits here, but haven’t swept Raiders since ’06. Eight of last 10 series games were decided by 14+ points. AFC West home teams are 3-5 vs spread in division games; home dogs are 1-2. Six of last eight Denver games, five of last seven Bronco games went over the total. Note: Raiders' coach Allen has been away from team this week, due to the death of his father.

Ravens (9-3) @ Redskins (6-6)—Washington is 3-0 since its bye, beating all three division rivals, running ball for 172.7 ypg; short week for them, coming off physical win over Giants in RGIII’s first MNF appearance. Redskins are 3-3 at home but won three of last four. Last three Baltimore games were decided by a FG, with Ravens scoring only three offensive TD’s on 35 drives; they split pair with Big Ben-less Steelers, beat sliding Chargers in OT, hardly impressive. Baltimore allowed 101.8 rushing yards per game in five post-bye games, after allowing 209.3 ypg in last three pre-bye games- they won three of four series games in once/every four years local rivalry, winning 20-17/17-10 in two visits here, last of which was in ’04; average total in four games was 27.8. NFC East home teams are 4-10 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC North road teams are 8-8. Four of last five Redskin games stayed under total.

Chiefs (2-10) @ Browns (4-8)—Cleveland is 4-3 in last seven games after 0-5 start, winning three of last four at home (wins by 10-1-6 points). Since 2008, they’re 3-8-2 as home favorites (0-0 in ’12). In three post-bye games, Browns allowed 65.7 ypg on ground, so will be up to ex-Brown Quinn to move KC thru air. Going to be tough week for Chiefs (Jovan Belcher’s funeral), as reality sets in about what happened Saturday; they played best game of year the next day, but now go on road where they’re 2-3 as underdogs, losing by 18-28-18-3 points, with win in OT at Superdome in game they trailed 24-6. Like QB Quinn, KC coach Crennel was once canned by Browns; reality is, he’s probably about to be fired by Chiefs, too. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 6-14 vs spread, 3-8 on road; NFC North favorites are 10-13, 6-10 at home. Under is 5-0-1 in last six Cleveland games, 3-1 in last four Chief games.

Chargers (4-8) @ Steelers (7-5)—Last five Pitt games were all decided by 6 or less points, with last three vs divisional rivals; Steelers won emotional game over rival Ravens last week behind 37-year 3rd-string QB Batch. Hard to endorse laying big number with Steelers until Big Ben comes back, but San Diego has now lost four in row, seven of last eight games, as Turner regime plays out string. Bolts are lost last four road games, by 7-1-10-7 points; they’re 1-3 as underdogs this year, 2-6 in last eight games as road dog. Pitt won eight of last nine series games, winning last three by 1-11-10 points. Chargers lost last six visits here by average score of 28-17; last time they won here was in ’94 playoffs. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 6-14 vs spread, 3-8 on road; NFC North favorites are 10-13, 6-10 at home. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Steeler games, but 1-4 in last five Charger road games.

Titans (4-8) @ Colts (8-4)—Indy’s storybook season continued last week, Colts scoring two TD’s in last 2:39 to pull out wild 35-33 win in Detroit, its sixth win in last seven games; they’ve won seven of last eight games vs Titans, nipping them 19-13 in OT (+3.5) in Nashville six weeks ago, scoring first TD of day with 3:24 left to tie game. Colts ran ball for 171 yards, outgained Titans 457-339. Indy is 5-1 at home this year, 2-1 as favorite, with home wins by 3-3-4-3-7 points; this is first time this year they’ve been favored by more than a FG. Tennessee lost last four visits here, with three of four losses by 10+ points; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs this year, with road losses by 28-24-23-5 points (won at Miami/Buffalo). Titans are 2-8 in games where their turnover ratio is worse than +2. AFC South home teams are 2-6 vs spread in divisional games, 1-3 when favored. Under is 4-1-1 in Indy games, 4-1 in titans’ last five games.

Jets (5-7) @ Jaguars (2-10)—Dysfunctional Jets are road favorite despite not knowing which one of their three lousy QB’s will start; they ran ball for 177 yards last week, but struggled to beat a team 7-6; Cardinals were second team in last 50 years to throw 30+ passes and gain less than 75 yards doing it. Jets are 3-2 vs spread when favored this year, 1-0 on road; they’re 2-3 SU on road, winning at Miami/St Louis. Jaguars are 1-5 at home, with all five losses by 17+ points; only games they’ve won, they gave up 17-19 points. Jets scored less than 10 points in three of last five games. This is Jets’ first game on grass since Week 3 (1-1 in ’12). Home side won seven of 10 series games; Jets are 0-3 here, getting outscored by total of 69-3 in last two visits, last of which was in ’06. AFC East favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 3-2 on road. AFC South underdogs are 11-10, 5-4 at home. Three of Jets’ last four road games went over; four of six Jaguar home games stayed under total.

Bears (8-4) @ Vikings (6-6)—Chicago lost three of last four games, Minnesota lost four of last five, so obviously critical game here; Bears (-6.5) drilled Vikings 28-10 at home two weeks ago, their sixth straight series win, converting 11-19 on 3rd down, using turnovers to score TDs on short drives of 34-13 yards in game they led 25-3 at half. Minnesota didn’t score on two of three drives inside red zone, averaged only 3.2 ypa. Four of Bears’ last five series wins were by 14+ points- they won last two visits here, 40-14/17-12. Vikings are 5-1 when they score 21+ points, 1-5 when they don’t; they’re 5-1 at home, with only loss a Thursday game vs Bucs. Minnesota ran ball for 240 yards last week at Lambeau, but turned ball over twice, 7th time in last eight games they had 2+ giveaways. Home teams are 4-4 vs spread in NFC North games, home dogs are 1-1. Chicago’s last four road games went over the total.

Falcons (11-1) @ Panthers (3-9)—If Falcons win #1 seed in NFC, they could get to Super Bowl without playing any more outdoor games after today. Atlanta (-7) snuck past Panthers 30-28 in Week 4, despite scoring only one TD on four red zone drives; they’ve won last five series games, scoring 30+ points in all five- they won 31-10/31-23 in last two visits here. Falcons had three extra days to prepare after finally beating rival Saints last game; they’re 5-1 on road, 2-1-1 as road favorites, winning by 16-24-7-13-1 point, with loss in New Orleans. Carolina lost four of last five games, getting beat at somber Arrowhead last week; they’ve lost last five home games, by 29-4-5-22-6 points. Panthers are 4-3 as underdogs this year, but 1-3 at home. NFC South home underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in divisional games this year. Six of last eight Falcon games stayed under total; three of last four Carolina games went over.

Eagles (3-9) @ Buccaneers (6-6)—Philly (only wins by 1-1-2 points) is playing out string; can’t expect big effort from them here, after playing in primetime last two weeks. Eagles lost eight games in row, allowing 26+ points in last seven, 30+ in last four (gave up 12 TD’s on 29 drives in last three games); they’re 2-4 as a dog this year, 2-2 on road, losing away games by 21-2-15-25-5 points, with only win 17-16 at Cleveland in Week 1. Bucs allowed 26.2 ppg in last five games, losing last two; they’re 3-3 at home this year, 2-1 as home faves, winning home games by 6-28-10 points- they’re 5-0 when allowing less than 21 points. Eagles scored 10.8 ppg in four road games on grass. Teams last met in ’09; Eagles are 2-3 in five visits here, with last one in ’06. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 7-5 vs spread, 6-3 on road; NFC South favorites are 10-8, 6-7 at home. Five of last seven Iggle games, seven of last nine Tampa games went over the total.

Rams (5-6-1) @ Bills (5-7)—St Louis is 4-0-1 in division games, 1-6 outside NFC West; they’re 1-5 away from home, and a dome team playing in western NY in December, but they’re also finding ways to win (three defensive TD’s in last two games, all by Jenkins) and just played rival 49ers tough twice in four weeks (1-0-1). Bills ran ball 46 times last week, passed it only 17, so up to sturdy Ram defense to contain Spiller and make former Ram Fitzpatrick beat them thru air. Buffalo covered four of five tries as a favorite this season; they’ve won five of last six games in seldom-played series, with average total in last five meetings, 57; don’t forget Fisher’s Titans tore Bills’ fans hearts out with Music City Miracle in ’99 playoffs. NFC West underdogs are 12-6 vs spread, 8-5 on road; AFC East favorites are 8-6, 5-4 at home. Five of last six St Louis games, four of last five Buffalo home games went over total.

Cowboys (6-6) @ Bengals (7-5)—Well-coached Bengals (Gruden/Zimmer top coordinators) won/covered last four games, allowing 10.5 ppg (two TDs on last 45 drives); they’re just 3-3 at home, but won 31-13/34-10 in last two at home-- contention has sparked fan interest. Can’t ignore fact that in last four games, just in second half of those games, Dallas has scored 28-23-28-28 points, so they make great adjustments at halftime and put points on board. Pokes are 3-3 SU on road, 2-1 as road dogs, with losses by 20-2-6 points- their defense has fallen off, allowing 142-183 rushing yards last two games, creating few chances for offense. Six of last seven Dallas TDs came on drives of 75+ yards, though defense did chip in with clinching TD at end of Philly game last week. NFC East underdogs are 7-5 vs spread, 6-3 on road. AFC North favorites are 8-9, 4-5 at home. Six of last nine Dallas games went over total; four of last five Bengal games stayed under.

Dolphins (5-7) @ 49ers (8-3-1)—Miami lost four of last five games after promising start, but only one of losses was by more than 7 points (were -4 in turnovers in 37-3 home loss to Titans); Dolphins are 2-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 20-3-3-5 points. Problem is, they’ve had only one takeaway in last five games (-8), and lost field position by 21-10-10-3 yards in last four games. 49ers got upset in St Louis last week; they’re 3-3 as home favorites this year, winning at Candlestick by 8-42-7-25 points, losing to Giants, tying Rams. After being +28 in turnovers LY, they’re only +5 this year, which is still good- they’ve had field position edge in last six games. Mobile QB Kaepernick has infused run game that gained 123-144-148 yards in his three starts. Miami is 6-5 in seldom-played series, 3-2 here, with last visit in ’04. NFC West favorites are 7-6 vs spread, 5-4 at home; AFC East underdogs are 8-7, 5-6 on road. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Miami games, 1-3 last four 49er games.

Saints (5-7) @ Giants (7-5)—Sean Payton was once fired as Giants’ OC, felt he took special delight in pounding them as head coach (won last three meetings, scoring 30-48-49 points), he will be missed here. Saints lost last two weeks to slide out of playoff contention, but have four extra days to prep here, with Giants having played on Monday, NO last Thursday. Saints are 2-4 on road, with losses by 8-1-20-10 points, with wins at Tampa/Oakland. Giants lost three of last four games; they’re 2-4 as home favorites this year, 4-2 SU, winning by 7-14-4-28 points, losing to Cowboys/Steelers. Expect big Blue to pound ball vs defense that allowed 120-144-124 yards on ground last three games. Home side won seven of last eight series games, with Saints losing four of last five visits here. NFC South underdogs are 9-5 vs spread, 9-2 on road; NFC East favorites are 4-13, 3-8 at home. Six of Saints’ last nine games went over; last four Giant games stayed under.

Cardinals (4-8) @ Seahawks (7-5)—Lindley was 10-31/72 yards last week, making him second QB in last 50 years to throw 30+ passes and gain less than 75 yards. Arizona’s lack of competent QB play has turned a 4-0 start into a 4-8 debacle; they’re 3-2 as road underdog, losing away games by 14-7-14-4-1 point. In last three weeks, Cardinals lost games where they were +5/+3 in turnovers, which rarely happens. Seahawks won/covered all five home games; they were underdog in three of them- they’ve got home wins by 20-2-1-10-21 points. Wilson’s first NFL start was 20-16 (-1.5) loss in desert in Week 1, when Seattle scored only 13 points in four red zone drives, and averaged 3.8 ypa. Home side won five of last six series games; Redbirds lost seven of last nine visits here, losing 22-10/13-10 in last two. Underdogs are 6-1-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games, 2-0-1 on road. Six of last eight Arizona games stayed under total; four of last five Seattle games went over.

Lions (4-8) @ Packers (8-4)—Green Bay had 13-yard edge in field position, snuck past Lions 24-20 (-3.5) in Detroit three weeks ago, its third series win in row and 13th in last 14 tries. Lions lost last 18 visits to Lambeau, though last two years they lost by 2-4 points. Last time Detroit won at Lambeau I was unmarried and had hair (1991). Now I’m bald/divorced. Lions scored 31-33 points last two weeks, lost both games; in second half of last four games, they’ve allowed 21-17-20-21 points, just in 2nd half!!! Detroit is 2-4 SU on road, 2-1 as road dog, losing away games by 8-3-6-10 points. Packers trailed last three games at half, kicking three FGs (no TD’s) on last four red zone drives; they allowed 147-240 rushing yards in last two games, and are 3-3 as home favorites, winning at Lambeau by 13-1-9-14-9 points (lost to 49ers). NFC North favorites are 4-4 vs spread, 3-3 at home. Five of last six Detroit games went over total; four of last five Green Bay games stayed under.

Texans (11-1) @ Patriots (9-3)— Easy to overlook that New England is +24 in turnovers this year (+11 in last four games), a remarkable number; 49ers were +28 LY, and they have chance to beat that. Third week in row on road for Houston, historically a red flag for any team, but Texans are 6-0 on road, with pair of 6-point wins and an OT win at Detroit. Top two teams in AFC square off in possible playoff preview; Texans’ offense is geared towards good weather- they snuck past Bears 13-6 in sloppy night game four weeks ago. Have to wonder about Houston defense after Jaguars/Lions scored 37-31 points in games 2-3 weeks ago, Wes Welker blew out his knee last time teams met, a 34-27 Houston win in season finale few years ago; Patriots won two of three series games, winning 40-7 in only meeting here in ‘06. AFC East favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 5-4 at home; AFC South underdogs are 11-10, 6-6 on road. Nine of last ten New England games went over total; three of Texans’ last four road games stayed under.

**Udog** · 12-06-2012, 11:06 AM

NFL

Week 14

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 6

8:20 PM
DENVER vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

Sunday, December 9

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. CLEVELAND
Kansas City is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland's last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Kansas City

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
St. Louis is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Buffalo's last 15 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. CINCINNATI
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 7-11-3 ATS in its last 21 games
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. TAMPA BAY
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. MINNESOTA
Chicago is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. JACKSONVILLE
NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
Jacksonville is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Tennessee is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. WASHINGTON
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
Atlanta is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games

4:05 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 games at home
San Francisco11-2-1 SU in its last 14 games at home

4:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. SEATTLE
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona

4:15 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. NY GIANTS
New Orleans is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Giants last 7 games

8:20 PM
DETROIT vs. GREEN BAY
Detroit is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Green Bay's last 21 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

Monday, December 10

8:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. NEW ENGLAND
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of New England's last 10 games

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**Udog** · 12-06-2012, 11:06 AM

NFL

Thursday, December 6

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Thursday Night Football: Broncos at Raiders
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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+10.5, 48)

With a division title already in their pocket, the Denver Broncos still have a first-round bye in their sights as they prepare for Thursday night's road game against the AFC West-rival Oakland Raiders in the Week 14 opener. Denver secured its 12th division crown with a 31-23 home triumph over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. It was the seventh consecutive victory for the Broncos, who have repeated as AFC West champions for the first time since 1986-87.

With four contests remaining, Denver is tied for the second seed in the conference with the AFC East champion New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens, who all are two games behind the top-seeded Houston Texans. The Broncos manhandled the Raiders in Week 4 as Peyton Manning threw for 338 yards and three touchdowns while Willis McGahee rushed for 112 yards and a score. Oakland enters the rematch hoping to end its losing streak, which reached five games with a 20-17 setback against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. The Raiders have allowed an average of 37.8 points during their slide.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Denver opened as high as a 12-point favorite and has been bet down to as low as -10. The total has moved from 49.5 to 48.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds are expected to blow west at 5 mph.

CONSENSUS: Covers Consensus is siding with the Broncos, with 54 percent on Denver. As for the total, 51 percent of consensus picks are on the under.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (9-3, 6-6 ATS): Executive Vice President of Football Operations John Elway was elated to acquire Manning last offseason. The former Broncos superstar quarterback has watched Manning pass him on two lists in the last two weeks. After moving past Elway for second place on the NFL's all-time list for victories by a starting QB, Manning set the franchise record for most touchdown passes in a single season on Sunday with three scoring tosses that raised his total to 29. He eclipsed the previous mark shared by Elway and Jake Plummer. The Broncos are not satisfied with winning the division title, a sentiment echoed throughout the locker room following Sunday's win. "That's not our biggest goal," cornerback Champ Bailey said. "It's just one thing out of the way." Coach John Fox added, "It's just a starting point, really."

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (3-9, 3-9 ATS): Oakland's losing streak is its longest since the club dropped six in a row in 2007 under first-year coach Lane Kiffin. Tight end Brandon Myers had 14 receptions Sunday against Cleveland, matching the franchise record set versus Jacksonville on Dec. 21, 1997, by Tim Brown. Myers now has 69 catches on the season, the most by a Raiders tight end since Todd Christensen hauled in 95 passes in 1986. Quarterback Carson Palmer has thrown for 300 yards in seven games this season. It's the most 300-yard performances by an Oakland signal-caller since Rich Gannon had 10 in 2002. Coach Dennis Allen believes RBs Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson will be in the lineup Thursday. Allen left the Raiders following Sunday's game to be with his father, who is dealing with a serious medical issue, but is expected to rejoin the team Wednesday.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Oakland.
* Broncos are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Underdog is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Fox is the second coach in NFL history to inherit a last-place club and guide it to division titles in his first two years.

2. Oakland K Sebastian Janikowski's 51-yard field goal on Sunday was the 40th of his career of at least 50 yards, tying him with Morten Andersen for third place on the all-time list in that category.

3. Janikowski has converted 124 consecutive extra points and is 24-for-26 on field-goal attempts this season. His only two misses were from 64 and 61 yards.

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**Udog** · 12-06-2012, 11:07 AM

NFL

Thursday, December 6

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Tale of the tape: Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
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The Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders renew acquaintances in an old-fashioned AFC West grudge match on Thursday night. Find out which side has the edge with our tale of the tape.

Offense

Denver was held to only 17 points in Kansas City two weeks ago, but responded this past Sunday by scoring 31 points in a win over the Bucs. The Broncos have now scored at least 30 points in six of their last seven games, with QB Peyton Manning having thrown exactly three touchdowns in seven of the last nine contests. Running back Willis McGahee is sidelined, but Knowshon Moreno has shouldered the load the last two weeks, running the ball 40 times for 154 yards. Denver has scored 38 and 37 points in its last two matchups against Oakland.

The Raiders can't get out of their own way right now, with QB Carson Palmer having tossed at least one interception in eight consecutive games. He did throw for 351 yards and two touchdowns against Cleveland last Sunday, but Oakland still managed only 17 points in another losing effort. Since scoring 32 points against Tampa Bay back on November 4, the Raiders have produced a grand total of 64 points over their last four games. Running back Darren McFadden is expected to play for the first time since Week 9 Thursday night.

Edge: Denver

Defense

While the Broncos offense has gotten most of the press, it's been their defense that has been truly dominant lately, allowing 23 points or less in six straight games. They've been particularly tough away from home where they've held the opposition to 3.8 yards per rush and 9.1 yards per pass play this season. They limited the Raiders to six points on 237 total yards of offense in their first meeting this season and the case can be made that they're playing even better as a unit now.

Oakland has had to get by with an injury-depleted defense all season, but that's no excuse for giving up over 30 points on seven different occasions. The Raiders did hold the Browns to only 20 points last Sunday, only masking the fact that they gave up close to 500 total yards of offense and allowed a pedestrian Cleveland passing attack to rack up 364 yards through the air. They're hoping to have their defensive anchor, Richard Seymour, back on the field. But after missing the last four games along with practice time this week, that's a long shot at best.

Edge: Denver

Special teams

If there's one area where the Broncos haven't dominated, it's on special teams. Their return game has been average, gaining just shy of 11 yards per punt return and 23.5 yards on kickoffs. Matt Prater has been less than reliable kicking field goals, making good on only 17 of 22 attempts. Of course, he hasn't been called into duty all that often, with Peyton Manning leading the offense into the end zone more often than not.

The Raiders have been putrid on punt returns, gaining an average of just 5.6 yards per return. They've only been slightly better returning kicks, still falling well below the league average at 21.5 ypr. The good news, Oakland does have one of the best kickers in football in Sebastian Janikowski. He's 18 for 20 on field-goal attempts this season with both misses coming from beyond 60 yards.

Edge: Denver

Word on the street

"We always say people remember what you do in December. So that's what we have ahead of us. We've got a division game coming up. Hopefully, we get to 5-0 in the division. There's a lot to play for. We'll see where that leads us." -- Broncos head coach John Fox on what his team has left to accomplish after wrapping up the AFC West title last Sunday.

"Week in and week out, it's like it's the same: can't stop the run, can't stop the pass. Things just aren't going well on defense. Right now, I guess we're just a bad defense. We can't really hide it." -- Raiders cornerback Michael Huff on the current state of their defense.

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**Udog** · 12-06-2012, 12:32 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, December 6, 2012

(TC) Denver at Oakland, 8:25 ET
Denver: 11-2 Over with a total of 42 to 49.5 points
Oakland: 2-12 ATS at home off 3+ games allowing 400+ total yards

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Baltimore at Washington, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 12-3 ATS off a SU loss as a home favorite
Washington: 3-13 ATS at home after gaining 175+ rushing yards

Kansas City at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 6-0 Under vs. AFC North opponents
Cleveland: 0-7 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games

San Diego at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 6-1 ATS after scoring 14 points or less
Pittsburgh: 1-5 ATS vs. AFC West opponents

Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 1-9 ATS vs. division opponents
Indianapolis: 9-0 Under vs. division opponents

NY Jets at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 13-4 ATS off a SU win / ATS loss
Jacksonville: 9-2 Under off a road loss

Chicago at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 8-28 ATS away in December
Minnesota: 12-1 Over off 3+ division games

Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 29-9 ATS away after allowing 400+ total yards
Carolina: 0-6 ATS playing with same-season revenge

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 1-7 ATS vs. conference opponents
Tampa Bay: 8-1 Over off BB losses

St. Louis at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 11-2 ATS off BB division wins
Buffalo: 15-29 ATS off ATS wins in 3 of their last 4 games

Dallas at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 1-12 ATS off a SU win
Cincinnati: 11-2 ATS off 4+ Unders

Miami at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
Miami: 16-5 Under in road games
San Francisco: 8-1 ATS at home off a road game

New Orleans at NY Giants, 4:25 ET
New Orleans: 9-2 ATS off an Under
NY Giants: 8-2 Under after losing 2 of their last 3 games

Arizona at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Arizona: 11-24 ATS away off a non-conference game
Seattle: 11-2 ATS in home games

Detroit at Green Bay, 8:30 ET
Detroit: 1-8 ATS after scoring 30+ points
Green Bay: 8-1 ATS vs. division opponents

Monday, December 10, 2012

Houston at New England, 8:40 ET
Houston: 8-0 ATS away with a line of +3 to -3
New England: 15-6 Over off 3+ wins

(TC) = Time Change

**Udog** · 12-07-2012, 11:16 AM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

If you think the shopping malls are busy this time of year, take a look at the odds for Week 14 of the NFL season. Oddsmakers have been frantically juggling numbers this week with early action forcing some notable adjustments.

We talk to Bert Osborne, sportsbook manager at the South Point in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves heading into the weekend.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: -9, Move: -7.5

Some online books opened the Bucs as big as 9-point home favorites but early money on the Eagles has dropped that spread just outside of a touchdown. Osborne opened this line at Bucs -7.5 and expects money to come back on Tampa Bay by Sunday.

“This could easily go to -8,” Osborne told Covers. “Besides the sharp guys coming in and pushing it, I don’t know who would bet the Eagles right now.”

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings – Open: +1, Move: +3

Oddsmakers put their faith in Minnesota’s home record, setting the Vikings as slight 1-point home dogs. However, money has been steady on the Bears and has moved this spread to a field goal as of Thursday afternoon.

“I bounced between 2.5 and 3, and right now we’re at -3,” says Osborne. “The money, in straight bets and parlays, is pushing towards Chicago. But the percentage of bets on this one will come in on Saturday and Sunday.”

Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5

Some markets opened this game as a pick’em, but after a big win on Monday Night Football, the betting public is siding with the Redskins and has this line on the verge of a key number. Osborne expects this line to creep to a field goal very soon with early limit plays on Washington.

“They’re on the bandwagon now with the Redskins,” says Osborne. “Ever since that impressive Thanksgiving Day showing in Dallas, people have decided to stay with them. We won’t bother sitting at -2.5 and playing with the money. We’ll go straight to -3.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns – Open: -4.5, Move: -7

The Chiefs head to Cleveland just a week removed from tragedy and an emotional win at home Sunday. The early action on this game is fading an emotionally-drained Kansas City, with nothing but Browns bets.

“It’s going to be a big one with both straight bets and the cards,” Osborne says of the split in action. “We took some limit plays at -6 and sit 6.5 but it will tough to push through to -7.”

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +1, Move: +3

We’re not sure if bettors are siding with Mark Sanchez, like Jets coach Rex Ryan, or just fading a terrible Jags team, but the early money is on New York. Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew remains a question mark for Sunday after missing the past six games with a foot injury.

“We’re a little higher on the Jets right now,” says Osborne. “This looks like one everyone will be taking to round out their eight-teamer on Sunday morning.”

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants – Open: -6, Move: -4.5

It seems the public has more faith in the Saints than they do in the Giants for this battle of two-faced teams, dropping the spread to as low as 4.5 at some online shops. Osborne says action has been a two-way street since he opened at -5 but that will change come game day.

“When Sunday comes around, we’ll need the Saints for this one,” he says.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots – Open: -4.5, Move: -3

The sharps grabbed Houston as big as they could get them, taking the spread as low as a field goal at some books. Most Las Vegas spots are dealing the hook at Patriots -3.5 and that has garnered a slight lean for New England action in both straight-up wagers and parlay cards.

“We won’t be going back up to -4 on this one,” says Osborne.

**Udog** · 12-07-2012, 06:37 PM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 14

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 14's action.

Baltimore at Washington (-1, 47.5)

Baltimore owns a two-game lead in the AFC North but is coming off a disappointing loss to the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens have won 15 consecutive games following a loss – the longest streak of its kind. During those games, the Ravens outscored opponents, 441-249, and won by an average margin of 12.8 points. Linebacker Terrell Suggs (biceps) is questionable and Baltimore will have to wait one more week before Ray Lewis (triceps) is eligible to return. The Redskins knocked off the New York Giants on Monday to keep their slim playoff hopes alive and have won three straight. These teams have played under the total in their last four meetings.

Kansas City at Cleveland (-6.5, 38)

Cleveland is expected to have all 53 players on the active roster available and healthy for the first time this season. The Browns were one of the top teams in the NFL in pass defense last season and have started to get stronger in that area in 2012 since CB Joe Haden returned to the lineup on Oct. 14. All four of Cleveland’s wins have come since Haden’s return. Keeping the focus on the field is the biggest challenge for Kansas City after Jovan Belcher’s murder-suicide last weekend. Chiefs LB Derrick Johnson (hamstring), who leads the team with 97 tackles, did not practice on Wednesday and is questionable. The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-9.5, 41)

The Steelers will have quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder) back under center when they host San Diego. The Steelers have won seven of the past eight meetings with the Chargers - and 14 straight in Pittsburgh - and San Diego coach Norv Turner is 0-6 against Pittsburgh. San Diego hasn’t cracked 300 total yards in its past three games and QB Philip Rivers is having perhaps his worst season as a starter, having thrown 15 interceptions against 18 touchdowns. Pittsburgh has held seven straight opponents under 300 total yards, allowing an average of 234 yards during that stretch. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six against teams with losing records.

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-5, 48)

Fresh off a stunning last-second victory over the Detroit Lions, Andrew Luck and the Colts take aim at their third consecutive victory when they host the Titans. The Colts have won six of seven to move one game ahead of Pittsburgh and Cincinnati for the No. 5 playoff seed and are riding a four-game home winning streak. A change in offensive coordinators did nothing to change the fortunes of Tennessee, who were held out of the end zone until the final 94 seconds of last week's 24-10 loss to Houston. The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 5-0 against the number in their last five against teams with a losing record.

New York Jets at Jacksonville (2.5, 38)

Rex Ryan thought long and hard about giving Mark Sanchez another start this week after throwing three interceptions in an ugly performance against Arizona last week. Sanchez and the Jets visit Jacksonville with their playoff hopes a long shot and their offense in shambles. Sanchez has turned the ball over 45 times in the past three seasons, second most in the NFL and he ranks last in the league in passer rating. With Maurice Jones-Drew, Jalen Parmele and Rashad Jennings injured, the Jaguars are planning to give former fullback and fourth-string RB Montell Owens the start Sunday. Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.

Chicago at Minnesota (2.5, 39)

With LB Brian Urlacher likely to miss the rest of the regular season with a hamstring injury, the Bears will look to keep pace with the Green Bay Packers atop the NFC North when they visit the skidding Vikings. Chicago has dominated the series of late, winning six consecutive meetings against a Minnesota team that has dropped two straight and four of its last five games. One of those losses was a 28-10 defeat at Chicago on Nov. 25. The Vikings are also dealing with the loss of a star player after putting WR Percy Harvin (ankle) on season-ending injured reserve. The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.

Atlanta at Carolina (3.5, 48)

Atlanta has taken the last five meetings with Carolina, including a 30-28 home win in Week 4. The Falcons have already clinched the NFC South title, and now they can start working on ensuring the road to the Super Bowl goes through Atlanta. Any positive momentum Carolina gained from its Monday night win at Philadelphia in Week 12 was squandered in last week's 27-21 loss at Kansas City. The Panthers have been pedestrian on both sides of the ball most of the season, and the defense was especially lackluster against the Chiefs, allowing 158 rushing yards and 355 total yards. Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (-9, 47.5)

The Buccaneers have damaged their playoff chances after dropping two straight games, but the Eagles are now residing at the bottom of a canyon following eight consecutive losses. Eagles coach Andy Reid has declared rookie QB Nick Foles as the team's starting quarterback for the rest of the season. Philadelphia's troubles led to Reid firing defensive line coach Jim Washburn earlier in this week. He was replaced by Tommy Brasher, who held the job under Reid from 1999-2005 prior to retiring. The Bucs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six overall.

St. Louis at Buffalo (-3, 42)

St. Louis shocked San Francisco in overtime last week, marking the second time this season the Rams took the powerful 49ers into extra time. Cornerback Janoris Jenkins has scored three TDs in the past two games, more than the Rams offense has generated. Quarterback Sam Bradford remains inconsistent and his top target, Danny Amendola, is once again questionable with a foot injury. The Bills gained a season-best 232 rushing yards last Sunday vs. the Jags to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. A once-porous defense has also improved. In the past three weeks Buffalo has allowed just 244.0 yards per game. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

Dallas at Cincinnati (-3, 46)

While the Bengals sit two games removed of AFC North-leading Baltimore, the Cowboys' deficit is just one behind the New York Giants in the suddenly competitive NFC East. Dallas secured its third win in four tries by scoring 21 fourth-quarter points en route to a 38-33 victory over reeling Philadelphia on Sunday night. And the Bengals are looking to record to push their winning streak to five games after securing a victory over San Diego last week. Cowboys QB Tony Romo will need to be on alert against a Cincinnati defense which leads the NFL with 39 sacks. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS during their current four-game winning streak.

Miami at San Francisco (-10, 39)

The Dolphins have dropped four of five but played well in the past two weeks, beating the Seahawks and losing by seven to the Patriots. Miami will be without LT Jake Long, the former No. 1 overall pick who suffered a torn triceps last week. The controversial switch from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick at quarterback hit its first speed bump in the overtime loss to St. Louis. Kaepernick committed a huge blunder when his errant pitch led to the tying touchdown with three minutes remaining. He was also sacked three times but ran for 84 yards and threw for 208 yards to earn his fourth consecutive start this Sunday. The 49ers are allowing a league-low 14.3 points per game but the Dolphins are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with winning records.

New Orleans at New York Giants (-4.5, 53)

The last two weeks have been a disaster for the Saints, with QB Drew Brees throwing a total of seven interceptions in losses to the 49ers and Falcons. Brees was picked off five times and did not have a touchdown pass in a 23-13 loss at Atlanta on Nov. 29, breaking his NFL-record string of 54 straight games with at least one TD pass. The Saints need to win all four of their remaining games to have a shot at a postseason berth and still have games against playoff hopefuls Tampa Bay and the Dallas. New York will lean on running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and David Wilson against the New Orleans run defense. The New Orleans rushing defense has been dreadful, allowing opposing backs to shred them for an average of 153.8 yards this season. The home team is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Arizona at Seattle (-10, 36)

Seattle is in position for the final wild-card spot and hopes one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL will help solidify that. The Seahawks, who are 5-0 straight up and ATS at CenturyLink Field, have a one-game cushion over four teams - Washington, Dallas, Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Arizona, which has lost eight straight since a 4-0 start, has spun its quarterback carousel again. Coach Ken Whisenhunt announced Wednesday he will go back to John Skelton, who was 1-4 as a starter before being benched for rookie Ryan Lindley. These teams have played under the total in their last four meetings.

Detroit at Green Bay (-7, 50.5)

The Lions haven't won a game at Lambeau Field since 1991. That's s streak of 20 straight losses, 21 counting a playoff game in 1994. But injuries are rearing their head for Green Bay, which is expected to be without wideout Jordy Nelson (hamstring), LB Clay Matthews (hamstring) and RB James Starks (knee) on Sunday night. The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus NFC North foes.

Houston at New England (-3.5, 50.5)

In addition to their 12-game win streak in December, the Patriots also have an NFL-best 42-5 record in the final month of the year since 2001, which includes a perfect 4-0 in 2011. New England has finished undefeated in December four times during that span, including 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2011. Additionally, New England is 19-1 in the last four games of the regular season since 2007. The Texans are without CB Brice McCain, their best slot defender, due to a broken foot and could march out top corner Johnathan Joseph at less than 100 percent. Joseph missed the last two games due to a tender hamstring. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday night games.

**Udog** · 12-08-2012, 10:22 PM

Where the action is: Week 14 NFL line moves

Baltimore at Washington – Open: pick, Move: -2.5

The Ravens are thin at the linebacker position this week and the public is starting to believe in the Redskins after Monday’s win over the Giants. Most Vegas books now have Washington as high as a 2.5-point favorite.

“This game has seen a lot of line movement since opening as a pick,” Bryan told Covers. “There has been a lot of public action on the Redskins based on the media surrounding RG3. The sharps have also backed Washington with a lack of faith in Baltimore as a road team.“

New York Jets at Jacksonville – Open: +1, Move: -3

Rex Ryan has been under pressure to make a change at quarterback all week, but Mark Sanchez will be back under center against a banged up Jacksonville squad. The Jags are devastated by injuries in the backfield and will be without WR Cecil Shorts (concussion) Sunday. Money is pouring in on the Jets for the second straight week but it’s the total that really has the attention of bettors.

“For the average TV viewer this may be the worst game on the board in Week 14,” says Bryan. “For bettors this game has shown some opportunity as the sharps have hit the opening total line at over 38.5. The public has chosen to back the under buoyed on the quarterback issues that have burdened the Jets all season long.”

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay – Open: -7, Move: -9

The Bucs are the best cover team in the league and the Eagles are the worst. This discrepancy has the betting line in a constant state of flux, and has some offshores setting Tampa Bay as high as 9-point favorites.

“The public’s interest in Tampa Bay, heightened by their lack of faith in the struggling Eagles, has created a number that sharps are seeing some value in,” notes Bryan. “The backing of the Philly side by these bettors has pushed the opening line of -8.5 back slightly to -7 to maintain balance on both sides.”

Atlanta at Carolina – Open: +3, Move: +3.5

A public backed Falcons team has seen this game shoot to a 6-to-1 bet count, according to BetDSI. But surprisingly, this line hasn’t wavered drastically throughout the week.

“This will be a big decision game for the books if things stay this way through Sunday's kick off," says Bryan. “Because of the small spread on a currently popular team in the Falcons, the teaser action will add up quickly as well with public bettors getting Atlanta as an underdog option.”

**Udog** · 12-08-2012, 10:27 PM

NFL

Sunday, December 9

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Cowboys at Bengals: What bettors need to know
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Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 46)

The Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys are making their respective pushes toward the postseason. The Bengals will look to record their second five-game winning streak in two years when they host the Cowboys in the Queen City on Sunday. Andy Dalton overcame a two-interception performance by running for a 6-yard score in Cincinnati's 20-13 triumph over San Diego last week.

While the Bengals sit two games removed of AFC North-leading Baltimore, the Cowboys' deficit is just one behind the New York Giants in the suddenly competitive NFC East. Dallas secured its third win in four tries by scoring 21 fourth-quarter points en route to a 38-33 victory over reeling Philadelphia on Sunday night. Tony Romo tossed three touchdown passes in the win to become the franchise's leader in that department.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Bengals -3, O/U 46

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with an 85 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the SE at 13 mph.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (6-6): DeMarco Murray rushed for 83 yards and a touchdown in his return from a six-game absence due to a sprained right foot. With the legitimate threat of a running game, Romo may find the passing lanes more attractive by way of using play-action. Favorite target Jason Witten has 30 receptions in his last four games while talented wideout Dez Bryant has collected six touchdowns in that span.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (7-5): BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who has rushed for 100-plus yards in three straight games, is on pace for a career-high 1,180 yards. Like Dallas, a vaunted rushing game will create holes for Dalton as well. That could only spell good news for former Georgia wideout A.J. Green, who will likely be reunited with Cowboys cornerback and Southeastern Conference rival Morris Claiborne (Louisiana State). Green has failed to score in his last two contests following a nine-game touchdown streak.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Bengals' last four games overall.
* Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Under is 7-2 in Cowboys last nine road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Cowboys NT Josh Brent was arrested on charges of intoxication manslaughter after flipping his car Saturday morning in an accident that killed his teammate and passenger Jerry Brown, who was signed to the team's practice squad in October. Brent did not make the trip to Cincinnati.

2. Romo will need to be on alert against Cincinnati, which leads the NFL with 39 sacks.

3. C Phil Costa became the 10th Dallas player - and sixth starter - to go on injured reserve. Costa partially dislocated his ankle versus Carolina on Oct. 21 and failed to completely recover.

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**Udog** · 12-08-2012, 10:29 PM

NFL

Sunday, December 9

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Saints at Giants: What bettors need to know
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New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (-4.5, 53)

Eli Manning and Drew Brees are supposed to be two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The results have not matched the narrative of late. The defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants have dropped three of their last four games and have squandered a healthy lead in the NFC East. Just one game up in the division, the Giants will be looking to pad their lead when they host Brees and the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.

The Saints had won five of six games following an 0-4 start, giving their fans some hope of a late move into playoff contention. But the last two weeks have been a disaster, with Brees throwing a total of seven interceptions in losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Atlanta Falcons. Manning’s touchdown-to-interception ratio has been a big concern to the Giants as well, with the Super Bowl MVP going three straight games without a TD pass before engineering a win over Green Bay in Week 12. He found the end zone again on Monday but led only one field goal drive in the second half of a loss to Washington.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Giants -4.5, O/U 53

WEATHER: Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-40s with a 50 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the NE at 3 mph.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-7): Brees was picked off five times and did not have a touchdown pass in a 23-13 loss at Atlanta on Nov. 29, breaking his NFL-record string of 54 straight games with at least one TD pass. The week before, Brees had two interceptions returned for touchdowns in a 31-21 loss to San Francisco. Brees has been forced to take chances this season because of New Orleans’ league-worst defense, which has surrendered an average of 440.5 yards and 27.3 points. The rushing defense has been particularly poor, allowing opposing backs to shred through for 153.8 yards. Brees’ own rushing attack has not been much help, either. The Saints need to win all four of their remaining games to have a shot at a postseason berth and still have games against playoff hopefuls Tampa Bay and the Dallas Cowboys.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (7-5): New York started off strong and is lucky to be in a division with no other dominant teams, keeping them a game up in the East. The Giants have split the season series with Washington and Dallas but still have tough road games at Atlanta and Baltimore coming up over the next two weeks. Manning seems to be pulling out of his funk and has a chance to put up big numbers against the New Orleans’ secondary. Manning threw for 406 yards and a pair of TDs in a loss at the Saints last season. New York could also lean on running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and David Wilson against the New Orleans run defense.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Giants’ last four games overall.
* Giants are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record.
* Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five December games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees threw for 363 yards, four TDs and 0 INT, and also ran for a score in the 49-24 win over the Giants last season.

2. New York T Sean Locklear is out for the season after suffering a knee injury on Monday. He will be replaced by veteran David Diehl.

3. New Orleans TE Jimmy Graham has a TD reception in 12 of his last 16 games.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (Thursday, December 6 - Monday, December 10)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (Thursday, December 6 - Monday, December 10)

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