The Bum's NFL December Best Bets !

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NFL

Dunkel

Week 13

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 2

Game 339-340: Seattle at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 135.112; Chicago 136.656
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3 1/2); Over

Game 341-342: Minnesota at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 124.480; Green Bay 140.252
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 16; 42
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7 1/2); Under

Game 343-344: San Francisco at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.464; St. Louis 127.502
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 15; 46
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 7; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-7); Over

Game 345-346: Arizona at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 126.046; NY Jets 128.310
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: N Y Jets by 4 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4 1/2); Over

Game 347-348: Carolina at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 125.706; Kansas City 125.942
Dunkel Line: Even; 36
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Under

Game 349-350: Indianapolis at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 130.891; Detroit 132.313
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Detroit by 5; 51
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+5); Over

Game 351-352: Jacksonville at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 119.308; Buffalo 131.083
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 12; 41
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-5 1/2); Under

Game 353-354: New England at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 146.076; Miami 129.501
Dunkel Line: New England by 16 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 7 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7 1/2); Under

Game 355-356: Houston at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.278; Tennessee 131.170
Dunkel Line: Houston by 3; 52
Vegas Line: Houston by 6; 47
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+6); Over

Game 357-358: Tampa Bay at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 135.326; Denver 143.808
Dunkel Line: Denver by 8 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Under

Game 359-360: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.383; Baltimore 137.929
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 361-362: Cleveland at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 129.891; Oakland 122.374
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 7 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 363-364: Cincinnati at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.820; San Diego 133.723
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 42
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2 1/2); Under

Game 365-366: Philadelphia at Dallas (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 121.848; Dallas 136.507
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10; 43
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-10); Over


MONDAY, DECEMBER 3

Game 367-368: NY Giants at Washington (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 137.592; Washington 131.257
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-2 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Seahawks (6-5) @ Bears (8-3)—Seattle’s starting CBs may be suspended soon for PED use, but are expected to play here; once they’re out we’ll look to play against Seattle, with games going over total. Chicago was held to 10-6-7 points in its three losses (Pack-Texans-49ers); they’re 5-1 at home, 3-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 20-17-6-1-18 points. Seattle is 1-5 on road despite being favored in half the games; they’re 2-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 4-6-7-4-3 points- they’ve won regular season games here last two years (23-20/38-14) but lost 35-24 in ’10 playoffs; Hawks lead 9-6 overall in series. Seattle allowed 20+ points in three of last four games. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-8 vs spread; NFC West road underdogs are 6-5. Four of last five Chicago home games stayed under total; three of last four Seattle games went over.

Vikings (6-5) @ Packers (7-4)—Green Bay hasn’t played well in two post-bye games, limping past Lions 24-20 (never got inside Detroit red zone despite +3 turnover margin), getting waxed by Giants last week. Pack is home for first time in four weeks; they’re 2-3 as home favorites, winning last four at Lambeau by 13-1-9-14 points. Packers scored 34.3 ppg in winning last four series games; Vikings lost five of last six visits here, with losses by 2-34-5-4-38 points. Fading Minnesota lost three of last four games, allowing 29.5 ppg (14 TDs on last 46 drives), after allowing average of 18.7 ppg in first seven games; they’re 1-4 on road, 1-2 as road dog, losing away games by 3-12-10-18 points Three of last four Viking games went over total, as have three of five Green Bay home games. Home favorites are 2-3 vs spread in NFC North divisional games.

49ers (8-2-1) @ Rams (4-6-1)—Teams battled to 24-24 tie (SF -12) three weeks ago in Candlestick, with both teams missing FGs to win it; Niners are 7-1-1 in last nine series games, winning four of last five visits here, with wins by 1-1-22-7 points. Rams are 4-1 in games where spread was 3 or less points; they’re 0-5-1 in other games, losing last two home games by 10-14 points. St Louis is 7-3 vs spread as a dog, 3-1 at home. All eight SF wins this year are by 7+ points; they’re 4-1 on road, 3-1 as road favorites, winning away games by 8-34-21-10 points. Kaepernick’s mobility gives them another dimension, but fact is they were losing in Superdome last week until defense scored two TDs off Brees. Last three 49er games, last five Ram games all went over the total. Underdogs are 5-1-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games.

Cardinals (4-7) @ Jets (4-7)—Arizona lost last seven games after 4-0 start; in last two games, Cardinal offense scored three TDs on 28 drives, while giving up three TDs to opposing defenses. Redbirds are 1-4 on road, 2-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 14-7-14-4 points. If they had a decent QB, they’d be a contender, but they don’t. Jets lost five of last six games, with last three losses by 21-21-30 points; they’re 2-4 at home this year, 3-1 vs spread as a favorite, with only home wins by 20-21 points. Gang Green is 1-7 when their turnover ratio is worse than +3. Jets won last five series meetings by average score of 35-15, winning last one 56-35 here back in ’08. Last time Cardinals beat Jets was in ’75. NFC West road underdogs are 6-5 vs spread; AFC East home favorites are 4-3. Five of last seven Arizona games stayed under the total.

Panthers (3-8) @ Chiefs (1-10)—Very tough to lay points on road with 3-8 Panther squad that was fired up for rare MNF appearance, and is now travelling on short week, but since late rally vs Chargers fell short in Week 4, Kansas City has three offensive TDs on 76 drives (0 for 21 in last two games), while allowing three return TDs to opponents; they’ve now lost seven games in row, are 0-6 at home for first time since 1976. KC has 83 points in last seven games (11.9 ppg). Carolina covered last four road games, winning last two (Wash/Phil). Three of last four Carolina road games went over total; last three Chief games stayed under. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 4-0 on road; AFC West underdogs are 6-13, 2-5 at home. Bad teams have very little enthusiasm from fans, therefore very small, if any home field advantage.

Colts (7-4) @ Lions (4-7)—Indy had -4 turnover ratio in three of four losses; they’re 7-1 otherwise, making them live dog here; Colts won/covered five of last six games, with only loss in Foxboro- they’re 4-3 vs spread as underdog, 1-3 on road. Detroit has only two takeaways (-5) in last three games; they’ve lost last three weeks, allowing 30.7 ppg (nine TDs/10 FGA on last 37 drives)- their last seven TDs allow all came on drives of 74+ yards, so they’re not stopping anyone, and Colts have good offense, converting 16 of last 30 3rd down plays. Lions are 2-3 vs spread as underdog, 1-2 at home. Indy won last three series games by average score of 34-16, but that was with Manning at QB. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Indy games, 1-4 in last five Detroit games. AFC South underdogs are 11-9 vs spread, 5-5 on road; NFC North favorites are 10-11, 6-8 at home.

Jaguars (2-9) @ Bills (4-7)—Buffalo is 4-0 when it allows 17 or less points, 0-7 when it doesn’t. December trip up north for Florida team is generally bad news for visitors, but since Henne became QB, Jags scored 37-24 points in last two games (7 TDs on last 25 drives), and appear energized. Jax is also 5-0 vs spread on road, with losses by 3-3-9-6 points, but three of those five road games were in domes. Buffalo lost four of last five games, with only win vs Miami (Florida team coming north); Bills are 2-2 SU at home, 3-1 vs spread as favorites this year, with home wins by 18-5 points. Jaguars won four of six visits here, winning 36-26 in last trip here, two years ago. AFC East favorites are 7-5 vs spread, 4-3 at home; AFC South underdogs are 10-9, 5-5 on road. Three of last four Buffalo games stayed under the total.

Patriots (8-3) @ Dolphins (5-6)—New England has five return TDs in last two games; Miami hasn’t forced a turnover in its last four games. Last week was first time Dolphins won without positive turnover ratio (1-6). Patriots won four in row, eight of last 10 series games, winning four of last five visits here, with wins by 21-20-27-14 points. NE is 17-6-1 vs spread in last 24 games as a divisional road favorite; they’re 4-2 on road, this year, with all four wins by 21+ points. Pats’ losses are by 1-1-2 points, so in reality, they’re seven points away from being 11-0 right now. Miami is 3-2 at home, with three of five games decided by exactly 3 points. Over last decade, Miami is 5-9 as a divisional home dog. Last nine Patriot games went over the total; under is 5-1-1 in last seven Miami games. Home teams are 2-6 vs spread in AFC divisional games, home dogs are 0-3.

Texans (10-1) @ Titans (4-7)—Tennessee’s development of young Locker as QB of future took major hit when they fired OC Palmer Monday; now you have 2nd-year QB with very little experience, a rookie OC, and a 2nd-year HC with an Impatient 86-year old owner who never should’ve let Jeff Fisher get out of Nashville in first place. Titans lost 38-14 (+13) at Houston in Week 4; Texans had two return TDs, +3 turnover ratio in game that was only 14-7 at half. Potential trap game for Houston, which plays in Foxboro next week; they’re 5-0 on road this year, 2-1-1 as road favorite, winning road games by 20-6-6-7-3 points. Titans are 4-5 as underdogs this year, 2-2 at home. Six of last nine Houston games went over total; three of last four Titan games stayed under. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season.

Buccaneers (6-5) @ Broncos (8-3)—Denver won last six games, failed to cover last two, despite winning by 7-8 points; they’re 3-1 as Mile High favorites, with home wins by 12-31-20-7 points, and loss to Houston. Bronco defense has improved greatly; opponents converted just six of last 42 third down plays. Bucs had 4-game win streak snapped last week; they’re 5-1-1 as an underdog this year, 4-0 on road, winning last three games on foreign soil while scoring 35 ppg. Broncos won five of seven series games, with last four all decided by 4 or less points; Bucs lost three of four visits here, with only win in ’93, and last two losses by 4-3 points. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 9-1 vs spread this season; AFC West favorites are 5-5, 3-3 at home. Six of last eight Tampa games, five of last seven Broncos tilts went over the total.

Steelers (6-5) @ Ravens (9-2)—Pittsburgh scored 16-10-14 points in last three games, losing last two with backup QBs playing, scoring just single FG in second half of those games; Batch-led Steelers had 8 turnovers (-7) last week, first NFL team in 11 years to do that, so Big Ben’s recovery probably accelerated here, as Ravens beat Pitt 13-10 (-3.5) two weeks ago at Heinz, despite being outgained 311-200. Ravens were +3 in turnovers that game, are +7 in last four; they’re 2-3 as home favorites this year, winning at home by 31-1-7-2-35 points. Baltimore scored only 13-16 points in last two games, but won both with defense, converted 4th-and-29 swing pass on game-tying drive last week. Pitt is 2-4 on road, losing by 12-3-3-6 points; they’re Home teams covered four of first six AFC North divisional games. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Steeler games, 3-1 in last four Raven games.

Browns (3-8) @ Raiders (3-8)— Cleveland is 3-3 since last six games since starting out 0-5; they’re 0-5 on road, though, with four losses by 7 or less points. Browns beat rival Steelers at home last week, forcing eight turnovers from 37-year old, 3rd-string QB Batch; they’re 3-7-1 vs spread in game following their last 11 wins. Oakland lost last four games, allowing 42.3 ppg (20 TDs on last 48 drives), 182.5 rushing yards/game; they’re 2-3 at home, beating Steelers/Jaguars by FG each. Raiders are 0-3 as a favorite this year; since 2006, they’re a ridiculous 4-16 vs spread when favored. Home team won last three series games, with Browns losing 26-24/24-17 in last two visits here. AFC North underdogs are 6-7 vs spread, 4-4 on road; AFC West favorites are 5-5, 3-3 at home. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Cleveland games, 1-5 in last six Raider games.

Bengals (6-5) @ Chargers (4-7)—San Diego couldn’t stop Ray Rice from getting first down on 4th-and-29 last week, which led to tying FG in OT loss that officially ended its season; Chargers lost six of last seven games, with only win vs hideous Chiefs- they’re 2-3 at home, and forced total of only nine turnover in non-Chief games (10 takeaways in two games vs KC). Bengals won last three games allowing 9.7 ppg (two TDs on 35 drives); they’re 6-0 when they score 27+ points, 0-5 when they don’t. San Diego allowed 30+ points in four of its last seven games- they haven’t had TD drive of less than 78 yards since Week 6. Chargers are 8-3 in last 11 series games, winning five of last six played here. AFC West teams are 5-8 vs spread in non-divisional home games; AFC North teams are 6-8 on road. Under is 6-2 in last eight Bengal games, 2-6 in last eight San Diego games.

Eagles (3-8) @ Cowboys (5-6)—Eagles are in tank, losing last seven games (0-6 vs spread in last six); national TV cameras didn’t help them last week, likely won’t help here, especially with WR Jackson now out for year (ribs)- their three wins are by 1-1-2 points, so they’re seven points away from being 0-11. Dallas beat them 38-23 (-1) three weeks ago at the Linc, despite being outgained by 75 yards- Pokes had three return TDs in same quarter. Cowboys are 6-19-1 vs spread in last 26 games as a favorite, 2-5 this year; they’re 2-3 at home this year, 0-4 as home favorite, beating Bucs by 6, Browns by 3. Foles hasn’t been awful at QB for Eagles; he is a Dallas kid (Westlake Carroll HS). Eagles have two takeaways (-8) in last five games. Home teams are 1-6 vs spread in NFC East games, home favorites 1-4. All five Eagle road games stayed under the total; three of last four Dallas home games went over.

Giants (7-4) @ Redskins (5-6)—Washington scored go-ahead TD with 1:32 left to take 23-20 lead in Week 7’s first meeting, but Manning hit on 77-yard TD pass on first play after kickoff to give Giants dramatic win, their 7th in last nine series games. Big Blue is 0-4 when they score 20 or less points, 7-0 when they score more; Redskins allowed 21+ points in nine of 11 games. Both teams have played better since their bye; Redskins scored 31-38 points in beating other two division rivals; they’ve had three extra days to prepare since Turkey Day win. Giants looked invigorated in crushing Green Bay last week. Home teams are 1-6 vs spread in NFC East games, home underdogs 0-2. Last three Giant games, three of last four Washington games stayed under the total. Last four years, team that won first series meeting also won the second; Giants won five of last six visits here.

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NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 13

Seattle at Chicago (-3.5, 37.5)

Jay Cutler returned against the Vikings last week and led four straight scoring drives in the first and second quarters as Chicago cruised to a 28-10 win. The Seahawks should have their full secondary ready to attack Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall, as the potential suspensions for CBs Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner, who both tested positive for a banned stimulant, are under appeal. Seattle is 1-5 on the road this season and has suffered all five of those road losses by a touchdown or less, including last week’s 24-21 setback at Miami. Bears RB Matt Forte (ankle) has been limited in practice but says he will be ready to go for Sunday. These teams have played over the total in their last seven meetings.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-9.5, 46.5)

The Vikings and Packers square off in a crucial game for their playoff prospects Sunday at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is coming off a 38-10 prime-time loss to the New York Giants and is now a game behind the division-leading Bears. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has the highest QB rating in the league (105.6), but he has been held under 300 yards passing in four consecutive games. However, he will have one of his favorite targets back on the field this week, as WR Greg Jennings will make his return after missing seven games because of abdominal surgery. These teams have played over the total in seven of their last eight meetings.

San Francisco at St. Louis (7.5, 40)

The last time Alex Smith started at QB he was knocked out of the game and the 49ers ended up tying the St. Louis Rams after Colin Kaepernick stepped in and helped overcome a 17-7 deficit. This time, Kaepernick will get the start over a healthy Smith when San Francisco visits the Rams. The Niners’ passing game will have to be efficient because the ground game has been in a funk as of late. Frank Gore rushed for 97 yards on 21 carries in the first meeting with St. Louis this season, but has been held under 100 yards in four straight games. St. Louis could be without top WR Danny Amendola (heel), who has missed practice this week because of the injury. The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

Arizona at New York Jets (-4.5, 36.5)

Both of these clubs are coming off lopsided home losses that dropped them to 4-7 on the campaign. The Cardinals have stumbled to seven consecutive defeats following a 4-0 start but they do own a victory at New England, a team that has defeated the Jets twice, including a 49-19 beating on Thanksgiving night. Arizona hasn’t scored 20 points since Week 4 and is averaging a paltry 12.7 points during its seven-game skid. The Jets have taken the last five meetings and none of New York's remaining five opponents currently has more than four wins. The under is 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last six road games.

Carolina at Kansas City (3, 40.5)

Cam Newton threw for a pair of touchdowns and rushed for two more as Carolina posted a 30-22 victory over Philadelphia on Monday night. Newton could be in line for another field day against Kansas City, which can match its longest losing skid in franchise history with a ninth straight loss on Sunday. The Chiefs are counting on Brady Quinn to spark an offense that has mustered just three touchdowns in the last seven contests. With RB Jonathan Stewart likely sidelined with a high ankle sprain, DeAngelo Williams will receive the bulk of the carries in the backfield for the Panthers. Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.

Indianapolis at Detroit (-5, 51)

The Lions suffered their third straight loss with a 34-31 overtime setback to Houston on Nov. 22, but the talk resonating from the game centered on the intent of Ndamukong Suh's kick to the groin of QB Matt Schaub. Commissioner Roger Goodell elected not to suspend the mammoth defensive tackle, but the league issued a $30,000 fine instead. Interim Colts coach Bruce Arians has won six of eight contests while filling in for Chuck Pagano and Indy has covered in five of its last six games overall.

Jacksonville at Buffalo (-6, 44.5)

The Bills have tumbled down the standings following four losses in five games, including last week's 20-13 defeat at Indianapolis. Buffalo continues to struggle in the red zone, managing only one touchdown in each of its last two games, and has surrendered a punt return for a score in consecutive weeks. The Jaguars have come to life under backup QB Chad Henne and snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 24-19 victory over Tennessee last week. Henne has thrown for 615 yards with six touchdowns and one interception in his two appearances this campaign. Surprisingly, Jacksonville is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.

New England at Miami (9, 51)

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots look to extend their five-game winning streak when they visit Miami. New England has scored 108 points in its last two games, the third-highest two-game total in NFL history. The Patriots have put up at least 37 points in each of their last four games and the scary part is that they’ve taken their foot off the gas in each one. Miami has been gashed through the air this season. The Dolphins rank 27th against the pass and they can’t count on the takeaways when they face Brady, who has been picked off just three times on the season. These teams have played over the total in their last four meetings.

Houston at Tennessee (6.5, 47)

The Texans have won five straight, including back-to-back overtime victories against Jacksonville and Detroit, and need just one more win to break the franchise record of 10 set last season. Houston also will clinch a playoff spot with a win or tie. Tennessee has lost three of four, including a 24-19 loss at Jacksonville last week, to fall two games off the wild card pace with five games to play. The Titans’ stop unit is among the league's worst and is ranked 31st in scoring and 29th in total yards. Houston is 5-0 on the road with four of those wins coming by seven points or less.

Tampa Bay at Denver (-8, 50.5)

The Buccaneers had their four-game winning streak snapped with last week's one-point home loss to Atlanta, but remain in a three-way tie with the Seahawks and Vikings for the final playoff spot in the NFC. Tampa Bay had rolled up an average of nearly 35 points during its four-game winning streak, but bogged down at critical moments in the 24-23 loss to the Falcons. The Broncos can wrap up their second straight AFC West title with a victory. Denver enters on a six-game winning streak, but the Bucs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-9.5, 35)

Pittsburgh, which has lost two straight without QB Ben Roethlisberger, desperately needs a win when it travels to Baltimore to avoid seeing its playoff hopes take another hit. Roethlisberger is back practicing in a limited capacity but has been ruled out, so veteran Charlie Batch will start. The Ravens can clinch a playoff berth with a win, and if their victory is paired with a Cincinnati loss at San Diego, they'll lock up the division crown. Baltimore enters on a four-game winning streak and has won 15 consecutive regular-season home games - the longest active streak in the NFL. The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall.

Cleveland at Oakland (1, 38)

Cleveland recorded eight turnovers against injury-ravaged Pittsburgh last week en route to a 20-14 triumph. Rookie QB Brandon Weeden suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter of the victory, but is probable to be under center Sunday. Oakland could receive a boost in the backfield as Darren McFadden has resumed practicing and is in line to return after missing the last three contests with an ankle sprain. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.

Cincinnati at San Diego (1, 45.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals have put themselves in a wild card position with three straight wins. The Bengals have demolished the Giants, Chiefs and Raiders by an average of 21.3 points over the last three weeks. Andy Dalton has thrown for nine touchdowns and no interceptions in that span while the defense has been able to get pressure on opposing QBs and defend well against the passing game. That’s bad news for the Chargers, who have struggled passing and stopping the pass. San Diego has dropped six of its last seven games and has surrendered at least 30 points in four of those setbacks. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-10.5, 43)

The Eagles haven't tasted victory since Week 4, when they improved to 3-1 with a 19-17 triumph over the Giants. Injuries have ravaged the offense and Andy Reid is basically a lame-duck coach waiting for the axe to fall at season's end. On top of injuries to key cogs, Michael Vick (concussion) and LeSean McCoy (concussion), top wideout DeSean Jackson has been placed on IR with fractured ribs. Dallas, which is last in the league with an average of 78.7 rushing yards, may receive a boost Sunday as RB DeMarco Murray (foot) could be available. The Eagles are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

New York Giants at Washington (1, 51)

New York avoided a major downward spiral last Sunday night, when it posted a convincing 38-10 home victory over the Packers. Prior to the win, the Giants suffered losses at home to Pittsburgh and in Cincinnati. But not everything that came out of Sunday's win over the Packers was good as RB Andre Brown suffered a broken leg and is out for the remainder of the season. David Wilson could see more playing time in place of Brown, who leads the NFC with eight rushing touchdowns. Washington suffered a 27-23 setback to the Giants in Week 7 at MetLife Stadium. But New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four meetings with the Redskins.

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Bucs at Broncos: What bettors need to know

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos (-8.5, 50.5)

The signing of Peyton Manning has reaped huge dividends for the Denver Broncos, who can wrap up their second straight AFC West title with a victory over the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. Whereas the Broncos lost their final three last season in backing into the division title, Manning has guided them to six consecutive victories and into contention for a possible first-round bye in the postseason. The Buccaneers had their four-game winning streak snapped with last week's one-point home loss to Atlanta, but remain in a three-way tie with the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings for the final playoff spot in the NFC. Denver has not won seven straight since the 1998 season, when it won the second of back-to-back Super Bowl titles.

TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Broncos -8.5, O/U 50.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (6-5): Tampa Bay had rolled up an average of nearly 35 points during its four-game winning streak, but bogged down at critical moments in the 24-23 loss to the Falcons. Quarterback Josh Johnson failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season following a stretch of six straight games with multiple scoring passes. The Buccaneers also struggled in the running game, with rookie Doug Martin held to 50 yards on 21 carries following a four-game stretch in which he amassed 592 yards and five touchdowns. Tampa Bay's defense, which ranks last in the league against the pass (315.5 yards), lost CB Eric Wright to a four-game suspension for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-3): Manning, the league's only four-time MVP, had 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions to insert himself into the conversation for the award once again after sitting out last season while undergoing multiple neck surgeries. Denver's running game got a huge jolt when oft-injured Knowshon Moreno came out of mothballs to rush for 85 yards on 20 carries in last week's 17-9 win at Kansas City. Moreno, a former first-round pick, had not played since Week 2 but filled the void left by the injury to Willis McGahee, who is expected to be sidelined for six to eight weeks. Linebacker Von Miller had eight sacks in four games in November, pushing his total to 14 and giving the Broncos a league-best 37.

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 13 games.
* Over is 7-1 in Buccaneers’ last eight games overall.
* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four December games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas has gone over 100 yards in three of five home games.

2. Bucs wideouts Vincent Jackson (20.4) and Mike Williams (16.9) rank among the top five in the NFC in yards per catch.

3. Manning produced one of the greatest comebacks in league history against Tampa Bay in 2003, rallying Indianapolis from a 21-point deficit in the final four minutes of regulation for a 38-35 overtime win.

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Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks and six least popular picks in LVH handicapping contest, which has 700+ contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........

6) Seattle Seahawks, 162
5) San Francisco 49ers, 165
4) Minnesota Vikings, 172
3) Chicago Bears, 182
2) Houston Texans, 193
1) Cincinnati Bengals, 210

25) Oakland Raiders, 63
26) Buffalo Bills, 60
28) Dallas Cowboys, 55
29) Arizona Cardinals, 54
30) Green Bay Packers, 45
31) New Jersey Giants, 39

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NFL weather watch: Rainy in Buffalo, Oakland

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-6, 42.5)

Site: Ralph Wilson Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with a 100 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 18 mph.

New England at Miami (7.5, 51)

Site: Sun Life Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-70s with a 25 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the ENE at 14 mph.

Houston at Tennessee (6.5, 47)

Site: LP Field

Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-60s with a 25 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the south at 12 mph.

Cleveland at Oakland (1, 37.5)

Site: O.co Coliseum

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 100 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 18 mph.

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Total Talk - Week 13

December 2, 2012

Week 12 Recap

After watching three shootouts on Thanksgiving, the ‘under’ produced a 9-3 mark on Sunday. I’m not sure what’s tougher to stomach, needing 10 points in one half to cash an ‘over’ ticket or listening to broadcaster Al Michaels reminding you that you still need it? For those who had the ‘over’ in the Packers-Giants, we apologize and hope it didn’t hurt too much. The MNF battle between Carolina and Philadelphia went ‘over’ which cut into the dominance of the ‘under’ (25-12) in games under the lights. On the season, the ‘over/under’ is knotted at 88-88-1.

Divisional Rematches

Finally, a divisional rematch went ‘under’ the number. It happened this past Thursday as Atlanta beat New Orleans, 23-13. Even though the final outcome didn’t threaten the closing number (54), a lot of points were left off the board. Thanks Drew Brees! Despite that result, the ‘over’ is still 10-3 (77%) this season when opponents meet in their second divisional game. I believe all things will balance out in the end and the difference with this week’s rematches is that the first meetings recently took place.

San Francisco at St. Louis: This pair met three weeks ago and the final score was a 24-24 tie. Including this game, four of the last five have gone ‘over’ the number. What’s different about this week’s meeting is the number, which is hovering around 41 points. That’s the highest total in the last seven encounters. The Rams have seen the ‘over’ cash in its last five games. Make a note that both these teams posted 31 last week and each club got 14 points from their defense.

Houston at Tennessee: These teams met on Sept. 30 and Houston blasted Tennessee 38-14 but two of the touchdowns were from the Texans defense. The Texans have shown some offense the last two weeks (43, 34) and they’re rested after the Thanksgiving Day win. Tennessee’s defense is still suspect, ranked second worst in points allowed (30.5 PPG). It appears that the Texans score but ‘over’ bettors will need the Titans to do their job and that’s tough at times with Jack Locker at QB. The ‘over’ has cashed in the last four in this series.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: If you’re playing this game, don’t pat yourself on the back if you win and don’t cry if you lose. Not having Ben Roethlisberger has watched the Steelers put up 10 and 14 points the last two week. Defensively, they’ve only allowed 33 combined points, 13 of them coming to Baltimore two weeks ago at home. The Ravens have scored 44, 31, 23, 31 and 55 points in their five home games this season. So another explosion wouldn’t be surprising, but still tough to pull the trigger here. Three of the last four in this series has gone ‘over’ the number.

Philadelphia at Dallas: Here’s another game that’s probably not worth wagering but since it’s the SNF chase game, we’ll take a closer look. The Cowboys beat the Eagles 38-23 in Week 10 on the road. Dallas led 10-7 at half before outscoring the Birds 28-16 in the final 30 minutes, and 21 of those points from the ‘Boys came from the defense and special teams. Dallas has been exposed defensively at home this season, giving up 34, 29, 20 and 38 in the last four games. Not sure what you’re going to get out of the Eagles and their banged-up offense but the defense is allowing 25.6 PPG this season. The ‘under’ had hit in the three previous meetings before the first matchup this season.

N.Y. Giants at Washington: This is one of four totals this week that listed above 50 points (51). The Redskins and Giants both looked good last week, each club posting 38 points. Now you’re on MNF and the game actually means something for once. These teams met in mid-October and New York secured a 27-23 win albeit with a late touchdown. The combined 50 points stayed ‘under’ the closing total of 51 points. Including this outcome, the ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings. You might have to toss out those results, since the ‘Skins are a different offense under RG3.

Line Moves

The smart money produced a 1-3 mark last weekend but should’ve gone 2-2 if the aforementioned Giants-Packers game doesn’t stay ‘under.’ Keep an eye on Carolina-Kansas City since a lot of outside issues are affecting the game. It might be better to pass that game all together, probably the better choice even before the tragedy. Here are the early moves for Week 13 at CRIS, which all leaned to the ‘under.’

Minnesota at Green Bay: Lined opened 47 and dropped to 45 1/2
Jacksonville at Buffalo: Line opened 45 ½ and dropped to 44
Carolina at Kansas City: Line opened 41 ½ and dropped to 39
Cincinnati at San Diego: Line opened 47 ½ and dropped to 45

Fearless Predictions

Week 12 produced a 3-1 mark and $190 of profit. The losing ticket was the Falcons team total (26) against Tampa Bay. They scored 24 and had plenty of chances to get there. On the season, we’re in the black for $670. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Philadelphia-Dallas 43

Best Under: Tampa Bay-Denver 51

Best Team Total: Over Philadelphia 16 1/2

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 34 Philadelphia-Dallas
Under 60 Tampa Bay-Denver
Under 45 Arizona-N.Y. Jets

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NFL | MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 14 points or less last game
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
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NFL | SEATTLE at CHICAGO
Play On - Any team vs the money line (SEATTLE) off an upset loss as a road favorite, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season
105-52 since 1997. ( 66.9% | 0.0 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
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NFL | NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (MIAMI) an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a win by 6 or less points
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

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Cardinals-Jets: 'It is an ugly game to cap'

The Arizona Cardinals have lost seven games in a row and have covered only once in their past eight. The New York Jets, meanwhile, have won only one of their past five and have covered only one of their last four.

What does it add up to?

"It is an ugly game to cap," says Mike Perry, oddsmaker at Sportsbook.ag. "The Jets are awful, but the Cards are a whole other level of bad. Arizona is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight. So I can see why 73 percent of the money is on the Jets."

Yes, believe it or not, bettors love the Jets this weekend and on Saturday they pushed New York from a 4.5-point fave to a 5.5-point fave.

It may be hard to fathom if you've watched Mark Sanchez this year or if you watched the Jets get obliterated by the Pats last week. Sanchez has an NFL-worst four red-zone interceptions this year. He has 10 interceptions overall and three fumbles against just 12 TDs.

In Cardinals land, meanwhile, rookie QB Ryan Lindley is expected to start again ahead of an injured Kevin Kolb (questionable). Lindley threw four picks with no TDs last game. To make matters worse Arizona is dinged up at wide receiver with injuries to Early Doucet and Andre Roberts.

Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt was asked about his depth at wide receiver Friday and he replied: "Is that what we have, depth?"

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NFL tech notes this weekend!

SEATTLE at CHICAGO...Pete Carroll 7-4 vs. line TY, 18-8 vs. number last 26 since early 2011. Carroll 5-0 as dog TY, 11-1 last 12 as dog, 16-2 last 18 as dog since early 2011. Lovie only one cover last four at home TY. Seahawks "under" 7-4 in 2012, "under" 4-2 on road. Tech edge-Seahawks and slight to "under," based on tam and "totals" trends.

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY...Ugh! Vikes haven't beaten Pack since the big Favre Minnesota year of 2009, losing last four (1-3 vs. line). Vikes, however, only 1-4 vs. line this season on road, 4-8 last 12 away against line since early LY. Pack has covered only 2 of last 6 vs. line at Lambeau since late LY. "Overs" 7-1 last 8 meetings, and Pack "over" 19-9 since late in 2010 season. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at ST. LOUIS...Rams have actually covered last two vs. 49ers since late LY (including recent SU draw at Candlestick) and are 4-1 vs. spread last five in series. Rams won and covered first three at home (all as dog) TY before recent loss to Jets. Rams also "over" last five this season, and "over" 4-1 last five meetings vs. 49ers. SF 4-1 vs. line away in 2012. Tech edge-Rams and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ARIZONA at NY JETS...Cards have lost last seven SU and had dropped six in a row vs. the number prior to Nov. 18 cover vs. Falcons. Whisenhunt "under" 8-3 this season and "under" 14-5-1 last 20 since early 2011. Cards also 9-5 last 14 as dog. Jets "over" 6-4-1 TY and "over" 34-16 last 50 since late 2009. Tech edge-slight to Cards, based on extended Whisenhunt dog marks.

CAROLINA at KANSAS CITY...Panthers have actually covered their last three on the road this season in a pattern very close to Jacksonville's "road-in-Jag" this season, as visiting team has covered last eight Panthers games in 2012 prior to Monday vs. Eagles. Chiefs 2-4 vs. points at Arrowhead TY and 2-5 last seven since late 2011. Tech edge-Panthers, based on team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at DETROIT...Lions again no covers last three TY, and only 7-15-1 vs. number last 23 on board since early 2011. Detroit 3-7-1 against number last 11 at Ford Field. Lions also "over" 7-3-1 TY, now "over" 30-15-3 last 48 since late in 2009 campaign. Colts have covered 5 of last 6 TY. Tech edge-Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO..."Road in Jag" trend continues, as visitor is 10-1 vs. spread in Jag games this season, with J'ville 5-0 against spread on road. Chan "over" 17-11 since late 2010. Tech edge-Jags and slight to "over," based on road-in-Jag and Bills' "totals" trends.

NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI...Dolphins 1-3 SU and vs. line last four this season. Belichick has won and covered 4 of last 5 at Miami. Road team 8-2 against spread last 10 in series. Belichick "over" 9-2 TY and now "over" 37-12 since late in 2009 campaign. "Overs" last four in series. Tech edge-Patriots and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

HOUSTON at TENNESSEE...Munchak just 4-8 vs. number last 12 at LP Field. Kubiak 21-8-1 against number last 30 on board, and Kubiak 5-1 vs. line last six in series. "Overs" 13-4 last 17 in series since 2003. Tech edge-Texans and "over," based on team and series trends.

TAMPA BAY at DENVER...Schiano has covered 4 of last 5 and 8 of last 11 this season, he's also 5-1 as dog. Broncos have won last six SU and covered 4 of those. Bucs also "over" 5-2 last seven TY, Denver "over" 5-2 last seven and "over" 34-16 since late in 2009 campaign. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Bucs, based on "totals" and team trends.

PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE...Baltimore has now beaten Steelers three in a row SU. Four of last six meetings decided by exactly three points. Big Ben-less Steel earned narrow cover in 13-10 loss at Heinz Field Nov. 18. Steel only 4-12 vs. line last 16 away from home after loss at Cleveland. Ravens 2-6 against line last 8 at M&T Bank Stadium. Tech edge-slight to Ravens, based on extended Steeler road spread woes.

CLEVELAND at OAKLAND...Browns 6-4-1 vs. line TY, 10-4-1 last 15 and 12-5-1 last 18 against spread. Raiders 1-4 vs. points at home TY, 3-7 last 10 against points as host. Browns also "under" 8-3 in 2012 and 22-9-1 since late in 2010 season, though Raiders "over" 17-10 since last season. Tech edge-Browns, based on team trends.

CINCINNATI at SAN DIEGO...Norv 1-6 SU and 2-5 vs. line last seven TY, Norv also "over" 6-2 last 8 TY, reversing previous "under" string. Marvin Lewis 10-4-1 last 15 vs. spread on road and "over" 9-5 last 14 away. Tech edge-Bengals and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS...Something has to give here. Birds 1-9 vs. line TY lost 38-23 vs. Dallas on Nov. 11 at Linc. But Cowboys 0-5 vs. line at home TY, no covers last eight at Arlington, 2-11 vs. points at home since 2011, 2-12 last 14 against points as host. Tech edge-slight to Eagles, based on Cowboys' extended home woes.

NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON (Monday, December 3)...Shan has covered last four vs. Giants including narrow 27-23 SU loss at Met Life Stadium on Oct. 21. But loss by Giants at Cincy on Nov. 11 was first on road after eight straight covers (nine if counting Jets game when G-Men wore white uniforms last December). Giants also "under" 13-5 last 18 since late in 2011 season. Tech edge-Skins and slight to "under," based on series and recent trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Top 5 NFL Trends

CAR
KC Under is 9-0 in KC last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

SF
STL STL are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

SF
STL Under is 7-0 in STL last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

PHI
DAL Under is 7-0 in PHI last 7 road games.

IND
DET IND are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in December.

[StarDust Bum]

Weather information......

Its pouring cats and dogs in the bay area....watch that total on the Raiders game....and winds up to 40mph....

Anyone else can confirm from the east bay?

[StarDust Bum]

1 hour before Kickoff

NFL Consensus Picks

December 2, 2012 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Seattle +3 1122 29.36% Chicago -3 2700 70.64% View View

1:00 PM Arizona +6 1815 48.39% N.Y. Jets -6 1936 51.61% View View

1:00 PM Jacksonville +6 1932 51.77% Buffalo -6 1800 48.23% View View

4:25 PM Cleveland -1 1222 54.68% Oakland +1 1013 45.32% View View

1:00 PM Minnesota +7 2030 54.91% Green Bay -7 1667 45.09% View View

8:20 PM Philadelphia +10.5 1898 56.66% Dallas -10.5 1452 43.34% View View

4:25 PM Pittsburgh +8 1267 57.62% Baltimore -8 932 42.38% View View

1:00 PM Indianapolis +7 2257 58.10% Detroit -7 1628 41.90% View View

4:25 PM Cincinnati -1 2352 59.73% San Diego +1 1586 40.27% View View

1:00 PM New England -8 2403 61.63% Miami +8 1496 38.37% View View

4:05 PM Tampa Bay +9.5 2416 63.08% Denver -9.5 1414 36.92% View View

1:00 PM San Francisco -7.5 2596 64.13% St. Louis +7.5 1452 35.87% View View

1:00 PM Carolina -5.5 2452 65.95% Kansas City +5.5 1266 34.05% View View

1:00 PM Houston -7 3046 76.04% Tennessee +7 960 23.96% View View
Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Seattle 37 Chicago 1213 49.51% 1237 50.49% View View

1:00 PM Arizona 36.5 N.Y. Jets 1356 54.00% 1155 46.00% View View

4:25 PM Pittsburgh 36.5 Baltimore 841 54.82% 693 45.18% View View

1:00 PM San Francisco 41 St. Louis 1453 56.58% 1115 43.42% View View

1:00 PM Jacksonville 41.5 Buffalo 1439 57.26% 1074 42.74% View View

1:00 PM Carolina 41 Kansas City 1363 57.75% 997 42.25% View View

1:00 PM Houston 47 Tennessee 1449 58.62% 1023 41.38% View View

4:05 PM Tampa Bay 50 Denver 1561 60.64% 1013 39.36% View View

4:25 PM Cincinnati 46 San Diego 1548 63.11% 905 36.89% View View

4:25 PM Cleveland 39.5 Oakland 968 63.52% 556 36.48% View View

1:00 PM New England 51 Miami 1674 63.70% 954 36.30% View View

1:00 PM Indianapolis 51 Detroit 1734 66.01% 893 33.99% View View

1:00 PM Minnesota 47 Green Bay 1691 66.42% 855 33.58% View View

8:20 PM Philadelphia 44 Dallas 1606 67.28% 781 32.72% View View
Highlighted consensus picks over 59%. For more information, see our FAQ pag

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, December 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Chicago -3 500
Chicago - Under 37 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +7 500
Green Bay - Over 47 500

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET San Francisco -7.5 500
St. Louis - Over 41 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Arizona +6 500
N.Y. Jets - Over 36.5 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Carolina -5.5 500
Kansas City - Over 41 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Detroit -7 500
Detroit - Over 51 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +6 500
Buffalo - Over 41.5 500

New England - 1:00 PM ET New England -8 500
Miami - Over 51 500

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Houston -7 500
Tennessee - Under 47 500

Tampa Bay - 4:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +9.5 500
Denver - Under 50.5 500

Pittsburgh - 4:25 PM ET Pittsburgh +8 500
Baltimore - Under 36.5 500

Cleveland - 4:25 PM ET Oakland +1 500
Oakland - Under 39.5 500

Cincinnati - 4:25 PM ET San Diego +1 500
San Diego - Over 46 500

[Kaptain]

get em BUM....thanks Podna