NFL week 13

[roccodean]

1* Detroit over Indy (possible upgrade to 2*)
1* at -5.5 or better
Would with until closer to gametime to bet this. When the public starts backing Indy and Luck, the number may drop.
Indy might be 7-4, but their not as good as their record indicates. They struggle on the road and they have the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL. On the road they have lost to Chicago (41-21), the Jets (35-9), and NE (59-24). This their 3rd road game in the last 4. On the other hand, Detroit has its 3rd consecutive home game (and 10 days rest) and lost their first 2. Statistically Indy is just not good. They are 22nd in YPR and 18th in YPPA. Defensively, they are 21st vs the run and pass. Detroit's offense is mediocre (16th in YPR and YPPA) but will take advantage of Indy's bad D. Their pass D is solid (8th in YPPA) and should be able to slow down Luck. The Lions qualify for a 46-16 ATS trend due to their high scoring loss last week. I am not suprised that Vegas set this line over 4 because Detroit will win this game...give me the Lions.

[Kaptain]

gl Sunday with the Lions

[mgdog96]

Good Luck. I like Det at home also..

[Alafan]

Bump GL

[roccodean]

Final early games below
May add Oakland on later games if line goes to +3

Leans:
SD- if this was mid season SD would be 3-4*. Stats/trends/schedule favor them, but after last weeks loss I don't know where their head is and they may give up on the season. I do like them in a tease (to 7.5 or greater).


1* Detroit -5 over Indy
1* at -5.5 or better
Indy might be 7-4, but their not as good as their record indicates. They struggle on the road and they have the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL. On the road they have lost to Chicago (41-21), the Jets (35-9), and NE (59-24). This their 3rd road game in the last 4. On the other hand, Detroit has its 3rd consecutive home game (and 10 days rest) and lost their first 2. Statistically Indy is just not good. They are 22nd in YPR and 18th in YPPA. Defensively, they are 21st vs the run and pass. Detroit's offense is mediocre (16th in YPR and YPPA) but will take advantage of Indy's bad D. Their pass D is solid (8th in YPPA) and should be able to slow down Luck. The Lions qualify for a 46-16 ATS trend due to their high scoring loss last week. I am not suprised that Vegas set this line over 4 because Detroit will win this game...give me the Lions.

1* Min +8 over GB
1* at +7.5 or better
Green Bay should not be favored by over a TD. They are not the same team as the last couple years. Their D is average (15th vs the run and 11th vs the pass). Offensively, they have zero running game (23rd in YPR). Obviously their strength is the passing game and Rodgers. But, the Vikings only allow 6.7 YPPA (6th in league). The Vikes average an awesome 5.3 YPR (2nd in NFL) and will be able to keep Rodgers off the field as much as possible. You will hear people say "the Packers just got blown out so they are going to have a bounce back week". But, because of the blowout the line is inflated and teams that lost by 21 or more points in one week and were favored the following week are just 25-25 ATS. Give me the Viks!

1* Washingon +3 over NYG (Monday Night) (possible 2* upgrade)
1* at +3 or better
I fired on the G Men last week, but this week they are going to get an L. Their D is not good (24th vs the run and 29th vs the pass). The Skins have one of the best offenses in the league and will be able to move the ball effectively as they average 5.2 YPR (3rd) and 8.3 YPPA (1st) ! The Skins D is not good, but I think they will outscore the Giants. There is a good long term trend against NYG (114-70-7 ATS). The Skins qualify for an 80-38 ATS win based of their UD win last week and now being a HD. My calculated number is NYG -1 so there is value on the Skins here.

[jt4545]

Gl today

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco