Announcement

**Udog** · 11-30-2012, 09:35 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

-- Indianapolis covered eight of last 12 games as an underdog.

-- Titans covered twice in their last seven home games.

-- Patriots are 17-6-1 in last 24 games as a divisional road favorite.

-- Green Bay is 10-3-1 as a divisional home favorite.

-- Panthers covered seven of last nine as a road favorite.

-- Giants are 29-16 vs spread in last 45 road games.

******

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend...........

13) Its an amazingly bad NFL card for Week 13; they hitched national TV games to the NFC East this week, but except for the Giants, it’s a down year for that division.

Week is so bad that NBC didn’t flex out of the Eagle-Dallas game, and the Eagles have been in the tank for a while now.

12) BCS people have to be rooting like hell for Alabama to beat Georgia in SEC title game; a Bama-Notre Dame national title game is their best case scenario for good ratings.

11) Patriots have five return TDs in their last two games; Miami hasn’t forced a turnover in its last four games. Trap game for New England which hosts the 10-1 Texans next week.

10) Dome team from desert visiting the New Jersey swamp on December 2? Doesn’t sound good for a 4-7 Cardinal team that was once 4-0. As bad a season as the Jets have had, they’re 3-1 as a favorite this year.

9) Stanford hammered UCLA in Pasadena last week; the two teams meet again in the Pac-12 title game tonight in Palo Alto. Not often college teams meet twice in same season, much less two weeks in a row.

8) I almost fell out of my chair when I saw that BJ Upton got $75M for five years from Atlanta; with the winter meetings starting up, will any other ballplayers get paid stupid-high money?

Upton’s deal has to drive the market up a little.

7) Four of the top five scorers in college basketball are seniors, led by Coastal Carolina’s Anthony Raffa at 26 ppg; leading freshman scorer is Arizona State’s Jahii Carson, scoring 21 ppg. ASU will be a fun team to watch, now that they have a solid PG.

6) I’m predicting that the people who won Powerball Wednesday night will a) hear from a lot of their old friends this weekend and
b) make as many new friends as they want to have in the coming weeks. My advice: Change your phone number!!!!

5) Winner of the Northern Illinois-Kent State MAC championship game is headed to a BCS bowl game. Their game will be fun to watch, but I’m guessing FOX ain’t too happy about it. Not like those Tuesday/Wednesday MAC games on ESPN2 are ratings blockbusters.

4) Patriots-Texans-49ers are all heavy road favorites over divisional rivals; I’m trying to think which of the three underdogs has best chance to pull an upset. Probably Miami. Titans fired their offensive coordinator this week. Rams will have Niners’ full attention after the tie in Candlestick three weeks ago. Dolphins will need to create turnovers to pull the upset.

3) Total on the Oklahoma State-Baylor game is freakin’ 86. That means if game ends 43-42 and you bet over, you lose. I’ve never seen a total that high, that I can remember.

2) First Giant-Redskins game had a dramatic ending, with both teams scoring TDs in last 2:00, as Giants pulled out a 27-23 win. RGIII is worth watching, all by himself. Am thinking this could be a fun game.

1) Ravens-Steelers is only interesting if Roethlisberger is playing; can’t see Steelers winning with Charlie Batch under center. They had 8 turnovers last week in Cleveland, first NFL team in 11 years to do that.

**Udog** · 11-30-2012, 09:35 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Washington at New York
The Wizards look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road games. Washington is the pick (+13 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Knicks favored by only 11. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+13 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 30

Game 701-702: Phoenix at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 114.112; Toronto 115.766
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 703-704: Philadelphia at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 115.355; Charlotte 111.330
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3; 189
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Over

Game 705-706: Brooklyn at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 121.251; Orlando 112.811
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 8 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 707-708: Portland at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 114.855; Boston 117.723
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 3; 187
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 709-710: Washington at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 110.973; New York 121.795
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 11; 187
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 13 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+13 1/2); Under

Game 711-712: Cleveland at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 112.217; Atlanta 124.585
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 12 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 9; 187
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-9); Over

Game 713-714: Detroit at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 117.315; Memphis 124.621
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 7 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 11 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+11 1/2); Under

Game 715-716: Utah at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 117.840; Oklahoma City 130.997
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 13; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9; 204
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-9); Over

Game 717-718: Milwaukee at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 116.080; Minnesota 113.651
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 2 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 195
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+2 1/2); Under

Game 719-720: Indiana at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 118.035; Sacramento 113.315
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 5; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-1); Over

Game 721-722: Denver at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.544; LA Lakers 122.301
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3; 200
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+5 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 11-30-2012, 09:35 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, November 30

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PHOENIX (7 - 9) at TORONTO (3 - 13) - 11/30/2012, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 2-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 2-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (9 - 6) at CHARLOTTE (7 - 7) - 11/30/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 29-50 ATS (-26.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-2 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 5-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BROOKLYN (10 - 4) at ORLANDO (5 - 9) - 11/30/2012, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 5-4 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 7-2 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (6 - 9) at BOSTON (8 - 7) - 11/30/2012, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 3-0 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (1 - 12) at NEW YORK (10 - 4) - 11/30/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 67-93 ATS (-35.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 80-119 ATS (-50.9 Units) in November games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 278-335 ATS (-90.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
NEW YORK is 94-73 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 63-38 ATS (+21.2 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=91 points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 5-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 6-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (3 - 12) at ATLANTA (9 - 4) - 11/30/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 123-161 ATS (-54.1 Units) after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.
ATLANTA is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 5-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 6-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (5 - 11) at MEMPHIS (11 - 2) - 11/30/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 101-77 ATS (+16.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 54-36 ATS (+14.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in November games this season.
MEMPHIS is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
DETROIT is 36-21 ATS (+12.9 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 4-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (9 - 7) at OKLAHOMA CITY (12 - 4) - 11/30/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 202-162 ATS (+23.8 Units) in all games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-2 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (7 - 6) at MINNESOTA (6 - 8) - 11/30/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-0 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 2-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (7 - 8) at SACRAMENTO (4 - 10) - 11/30/2012, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 169-119 ATS (+38.1 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
SACRAMENTO is 33-46 ATS (-17.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 32-49 ATS (-21.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 13-32 ATS (-22.2 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 2-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (8 - 8) at LA LAKERS (7 - 8) - 11/30/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 135-177 ATS (-59.7 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
DENVER is 97-76 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 37-54 ATS (-22.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 8-6 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 8-6 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
10 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-30-2012, 09:36 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, November 30

Hot Teams
-- 76ers won five of last seven games, last two by total of five points.
-- Nets won nine of last 11 games, covered last four (2-2 as AU).
-- Knicks are off to 10-4 start (4-0 as HF).
-- Hawks won last six games but are 0-5 vs spread as a HF.
-- Memphis won 11 of last 12 games (5-2 as HF). Pistons won three of last four games (5-4 as AU).
-- Oklahoma City won 11 of last 13 games (6-4 as HF). Jazz won five of last six games (0-4-1 as AU).
-- Pacers won three of last four games (2-1 as AF).

Cold Teams
-- Toronto lost its last five games (1-2 as HU). Suns lost six of eight road games (2-0 as AU; favorites covered seven of their eight road games).
-- Charlotte lost three of last four games (3-3 as HU).
-- Magic lost nine of last 12 games (2-1 as F).
-- Boston lost four of last seven games (1-5-1 as HF). Trailblazers lost last three games, by 13-7-2 points.
-- Wizards are off to 1-12 start, but covered four of last five as road dog.
-- Cavaliers lost 10 of last 11 games, but covered four of last five.
-- Bucks lost four of last five games (4-0 as AU). Minnesota lost five of last six games (3-1 as HF).
-- Sacramento lost seven of its last nine games (2-4 as HU).
-- Nuggets lost last two games by a total of three points, covered four of five as a road underdog. Lakers lost three of last four games (5-3 as HF).

Totals
-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Toronto games.
-- Four of last five Philly games went over the total.
-- Last seven Brooklyn games stayed under the total. Orlando's last three games went over.
-- Five of last seven Boston games went over the total. Under is 5-2-1 in Portland's away games.
-- Four of last five Washington games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Cleveland games stayed under the total. Three of last four Hawk games went over.
-- Seven of last ten Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Thunder games went over the total.
-- Last three Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last 12 Indiana games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Denver road games went over total.

**Udog** · 11-30-2012, 09:38 AM

NBA

Friday, November 30

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
BROOKLYN vs. ORLANDO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 6 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Brooklyn's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Orlando is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Brooklyn

7:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. CHARLOTTE
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22 games at home
Charlotte is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games

7:00 PM
PHOENIX vs. TORONTO
Phoenix is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Phoenix is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing Phoenix

7:30 PM
PORTLAND vs. BOSTON
Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Portland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games

7:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NEW YORK
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing on the road against New York
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New York's last 9 games when playing at home against Washington

7:30 PM
CLEVELAND vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 12 games when playing Cleveland

8:00 PM
UTAH vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games at home
Oklahoma City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

8:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MEMPHIS
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Detroit is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Memphis is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit

8:00 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. MINNESOTA
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Milwaukee is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 14 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Minnesota is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

10:00 PM
INDIANA vs. SACRAMENTO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indiana's last 12 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Sacramento
Sacramento is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games at home
Sacramento is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

10:30 PM
DENVER vs. LA LAKERS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games on the road
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
LA Lakers are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games at home
LA Lakers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Denver

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**Udog** · 11-30-2012, 09:39 AM

NBA

Friday, November 30

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Game of the day: Denver Nuggets at L.A. Lakers
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Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers (-5, 205.5)

The woes of the Los Angeles Lakers haven’t ended with the hiring of Mike D’Antoni as coach. Los Angeles has lost three of its last four games entering Friday’s contest against the Denver Nuggets after a substandard shooting performance in Tuesday’s 79-77 loss to the Indiana Pacers. Denver has lost back-to-back games, including a 106-105 loss to the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. The Nuggets have blown 16-point leads in each of the defeats.

Los Angeles shot just 31.6 percent (24-of-76) from the field and 53.5 percent from the free-throw line in the loss to Indiana. Kobe Bryant had 40 points and 10 rebounds but also committed 10 turnovers. Bryant hit 5 of 11 3-point attempts while the rest of the Lakers were a combined 1-of-17. Denver’s one-point loss to the Warriors was excruciating in that not only did the Nuggets blew a 16-point lead, but Andre Iguodala’s apparent game-winning 3-point basket was reviewed and found to have left his hands after the buzzer sounded.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Altitude (Denver), Time Warner Cable SportsNet (Los Angeles)

ABOUT THE NUGGETS (8-8, 10-6 ATS): The back-to-back collapses are keeping Denver from being at the 10-win mark. Instead, the Nuggets are at .500 and sit four games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Northwest Division. Denver is 4-7 on the road after the loss to Golden State, and coach George Karl knew there was nothing to contest after the officials ruled Iguodala’s shot was late. “It seems like the clock started early for me,” Karl said. “There’s nothing to argue about. The camera says it’s in his hands.”

ABOUT THE LAKERS (7-8, 6-9 ATS): Forward Pau Gasol had just 10 points on 2-of-9 shooting against the Pacers and is averaging just 9.3 points over the past four games. Gasol isn’t a good fit in D’Antoni’s system and he also says he is being bothered by tendinitis in both knees. “I’m going to play through it and you try to keep it under control,” Gasol said. “It’s a little limiting, but it is what it is. There’s nothing I can do about it. Hopefully, it won’t force me to miss any games unless my performance is way down.”

TRENDS:

* Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Los Angeles.
* Under is 23-8 in the last 31 meetings.
* Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest.
* Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Lakers are 20-4 against the Nuggets at the Staples Center.

2. Denver PG Ty Lawson has nine assists in four of the past five games.

3. Los Angeles F Metta World Peace is four 3-point baskets away from becoming the 68th player in NBA history to reach 1,000.

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**Udog** · 11-30-2012, 09:39 AM

NBA

Friday, November 30

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The best basketball stats for NBA betting
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The endless stream of sports statistics can make even the most analytical handicapper’s head spin to the point of nausea.

And, truth be told, many NBA sharps don’t give the numbers a second glance, basing most of their plays on situational and matchup circumstances.

There are a few stats basketball bettors should lean on when breaking down a game, but these aren’t your general figures, found on the back of basketball cards (do they still have those?). We asked some the Covers Experts, some of the sharpest capping minds in the biz, which stats they consider the most valuable to NBA bettors.

Turnover percentage/Assist-to-turnover ratio

Turnovers can kill a team – and a bet. Careless play can quickly turn the momentum of a game, taking what should be points for your side and swinging them against your wager. Basketball bettors should keep a close eye on stats like turnover percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio.

If you look at the current NBA figures, heading into Thursday, the Los Angeles Lakers are the worst team in terms of turnover percentage – which should come as no surprise to anyone who has bet on L.A. this season. The Lakers, who are a dismal 6-9 ATS, are coughing up the ball on nearly 18 percent of their possessions.

On the other end of the scale, the New York Knicks have been able to take care of the basketball, posting a league-low 12.4 turnover percentage and also top the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.699). The Knicks happen to be one of the best bets at 10-4 SU and ATS to start the year.

“Assist-to-turnover ratio is a stat that I won't make a bet without checking,” says Covers Expert Teddy Covers.

Effective field goal percentage

This offensive stat is a clear way to factor 3-point shooting into a team or players’ field goal percentage, using the formula: Field goals + (0.5 x 3-pointers) / field goal attempts. A team could have a high field goal percentage but may not shoot a lot of 3-pointers, while a team with great range may suffer a bit for those low-percentage shots.

It’s not a shocker to see most of the NBA’s elite clubs top this category, led by the Miami Heat at 55.2 percent heading into Thursday’s showdown with the Spurs, who are third in EFG% at 52.8 percent. The Oklahoma City Thunder are second at 53.5 percent.

In fact, the top five teams in EFG% (Miami, OKC, San Antonio, New York, L.A. Clippers) are a combined 44-28-2 ATS, with the Heat as the only sub-.500 ATS team at 6-7 ATS heading into Thursday.

Pace factor

This unique stat is the brain child of ESPN’s NBA mastermind John Hollinger and is a must-use for totals bettors looking for an edge when it comes to the over/under. Pace factor is simply the average number of possessions a team uses per game, giving you a clearer idea of what teams are running and gunning and which ones are sitting on the ball.

“Stats are key for totals,” says Teddy Covers. “John Hollinger's pace ratings at ESPN.com control the market.”

As of Thursday, the Houston Rockets, with new weapons Jeremy Lin and James Harden, top the league in pace with an average of 97.7 possessions per outing. Houston is fifth in scoring (102.1 ppg) and has topped the total in nine of its 15 games so far, including a 5-2 over/under record on the road.

At the low bottom of the totem pole are the Brooklyn Nets, who average just 90.6 possessions per game. The Nets’ controlled pace has led to 95.6 points a night (18th in the NBA) and limited opponents to only 90.7 points per game – lowest in the league. That strategy has not only helped under bettors cash nine times in Brooklyn’s first 14 games, but Nets backers are also enjoying a 9-3-2 ATS windfall.

Free throw rate

Fouls and their subsequent free throws are a big part of betting basketball. How many of us have been burned by a needless whistle or a missed foul shot in the final seconds?

Free throw rate (free throws attempted/field goals attempted) can be interpreted numerous ways when applied to NBA betting. The stat shows which teams are the best at drawing fouls but needs more of a breakdown when looking at certain teams.

The Lakers lead the league in free throw rate, posting a massive 40.1 FTR which is nearly 12 more than the league average of 28.2. With the best front court in basketball, L.A. is getting to the foul line almost 32 times a game but shooting 66.8 percent from the charity stripe (second worst in the league). In a way, defenses may be getting their money’s worth by hacking the Lakers and those missing points don’t help when L.A. is drawing a pile of points from books most nights.

The Thunder, on the other hand, are second in free throw rate (37.1) and get to the line 27.4 times per game (second in NBA). But, unlike Los Angeles, Oklahoma City makes teams pay for those whistles, hitting an NBA-best 84.5 percent from the stripe. The Thunder recently thumped the Charlotte Bobcats, who allow a 30.6 FTR, 114-69 as 11.5-point home favorites. They made 21 of 23 from the foul line which helped cover that pile of chalk.

The worst team in terms of free throw rate (giving fouls more than getting fouled) is the Sacramento Kings, who boast a -14.16 in terms of FTR difference. The Kings are 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS despite being sizable underdog most nights.

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**Udog** · 11-30-2012, 09:39 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Tennessee at Georgetown
The Hoyas look to take advantage of a Tennessee team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 Friday games. Georgetown is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoyas favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 30

Game 723-724: Tennessee at Georgetown (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 59.445; Georgetown 70.972
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 11 1/2; 120
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 5 1/2; 124 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-5 1/2); Under

Game 725-726: Louisiana Tech at Georgia State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 57.545; Georgia State 61.591
Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 4
Vegas Line: Georgia State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (-1 1/2)

Game 727-728: Georgia at South Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 59.332; South Florida 59.939
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 1; 117
Vegas Line: South Florida by 4; 112
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+4); Over

Game 729-730: Utah at Texas State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 51.484; Texas State 52.715
Dunkel Line: Texas State by 1
Vegas Line: Texas State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+3)

Game 731-732: Oregon State vs. Kansas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 62.804; Kansas 74.950
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 12
Vegas Line: Kansas by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-11 1/2)

Game 733-734: Syracuse at Arkansas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 74.483; Arkansas 59.229
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 15 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 7 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-7 1/2); Under

Game 735-736: DePaul at Auburn (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 56.843; Auburn 53.847
Dunkel Line: DePaul by 3; 135
Vegas Line: DePaul by 1; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (-1); Under

Game 737-738: CS-Fullerton at Eastern Washington (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 58.563; Eastern Washington 50.598
Dunkel Line: CS-Fullerton by 8
Vegas Line: CS-Fullerton by 4
Dunkel Pick: Cs-Fullerton (-4)

Game 739-740: Montana at San Francisco (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 56.435; San Francisco 59.990
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5
Dunkel Pick: Montana (+5)

**Udog** · 11-30-2012, 09:40 AM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Friday, November 30

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TENNESSEE (4 - 1) at GEORGETOWN (4 - 1) - 11/30/2012, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1997.
GEORGETOWN is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGETOWN is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 88-61 ATS (+20.9 Units) as an underdog since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LOUISIANA TECH (6 - 1) at GEORGIA ST (3 - 3) - 11/30/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997.
LOUISIANA TECH is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISIANA TECH is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
LOUISIANA TECH is 1-0 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GEORGIA (2 - 4) at S FLORIDA (4 - 2) - 11/30/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UTAH (4 - 2) at TEXAS ST (3 - 3) - 11/30/2012, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OREGON ST (4 - 1) vs. KANSAS (5 - 1) - 11/30/2012, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SYRACUSE (4 - 0) at ARKANSAS (3 - 2) - 11/30/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
SYRACUSE is 48-26 ATS (+19.4 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
ARKANSAS is 71-101 ATS (-40.1 Units) as an underdog since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DEPAUL (3 - 3) at AUBURN (2 - 4) - 11/30/2012, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AUBURN is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CS-FULLERTON (3 - 2) at E WASHINGTON (1 - 5) - 11/30/2012, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CS-FULLERTON is 1-0 against the spread versus E WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
CS-FULLERTON is 1-0 straight up against E WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MONTANA (3 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 1) - 11/30/2012, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 37-23 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 37-23 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in November games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 65-97 ATS (-41.7 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 65-96 ATS (-40.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 36-58 ATS (-27.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 against the spread versus MONTANA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 straight up against MONTANA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DRAKE (2 - 3) at NEVADA (4 - 2) - 11/30/2012, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DRAKE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NEVADA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 11-30-2012, 09:40 AM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, November 30

-- Home side won all four SEC-Big East games last night, covering three. Georgetown, Tennessee are both off to 4-1 starts; Hoyas lost to #1 Indiana by 10, beat UCLA by 8 on neutral floor. Vols lost to Oklahoma State by 17; its best win was by 14 over UMass- both games were on nentral court. Vols have 80% of scoring back from LY's 19-15 team.
-- Louisiana Tech won last six games since losing opener at Texas A&M by 12, but none of teams they beat are ranked in top 200; Tech has three starters back from LY's 18-16 team. #173 Georgia State is 303, with all three losses to teams in top 120. CAA teams are 2-7 vs spread in games with spread of less than 5 points. WAC teams are 10-10.
-- South Florida won four of last five games since losing opener to UCF, only team to score more than 63 points vs USF. Georgia lost four of last five games, scoring 60 or less points in all five games; they're turning ball over 23.8% of time. Big East single digit favorites are 17-8 vs spread, 8-2 at home. SEC single digit underdogs are 6-9 against the spread.

-- Utah is 3-2 vs D-I teams, playing #338 schedule, losing by 7 at SMU Wednesday in first road game of year; Utes allowed 54 or less point in three wins, 74-62 in their losses. Texas State is 2-3 vs D-I teams- they're playing #3 pace in country, and are 0-3 scoring less than 80 points. Pac-12 teams are 8-6 if spread is less than 5. WAC teams are 10-10.
-- Kansas is off to 5-1 start, holding teams to 34.5% inside arc; Withey has been blocking lot of shots. All five Jayhawk wins are by 14+, with a 78-41 win over Pac-12's Washington State. Oregon State allowed 62.5 ppg in last four games; they're 4-1 so far, with loss to Alabama by 3 on a neutral court. Pac-12 road underdogs are 8-7 against the spread.
-- Syracuse doesn't usually venture out of central NY before Christmas, so this is unusual; Orangemen are 4-0 with all four wins by 13+: they've won on battleship near San Diego, so this isn't first road trip, but its the first true away game. Arkansas got sweptin Vegas last weekend, losing to Arizona State by 15, Wisconsin by 7, after being up 11 at half.
-- Auburn lost last three games, is 2-4, with last two losses by point at BC, in double OT to URI; Tigers are turning ball over 22% of time and making just 43% inside arc. First true road game for 3-3 DePaul team that lot twice on neutral court in Cancun. Blue Demons are playing fast, the #6 pace in country. Auburn is 0-3 allowing more than 51 points.

-- Fullerton scored 91.5 ppg in splitting first four games vs D-I teams, losing true road games at Stanford (81-68), Nevada (80-77); Titans have made half their 3-pointers so far, lead country in eFG% (62%). Titans beat Eastern Washington 91-76 LY at home. Eagles are 1-5 vs D-I teams, but this their home opener. Big West teams are 9-6 if spread is 5 or less.
-- Montana is struggling without injured star (foot) Cherry, splitting its first four games vs D-I teams, losing two of three on road- they lost by 25 at BYU Wednesday. San Francisco beat Griz last two years by 2-3 points; Dons are 2-1 vs D-I teams, losing by 12 at Stanford, winning by 20 over Columbia team that beat Villanova by 18. Big Sky teams are 2-6 if spread is 5 or less.
-- Nevada won four of last five games, sneaking past #279 Cal-Davis by a point Wednesday; Wolf Pack plays bench a lot, important since Reno is high altitude. Drake is 1-3 vs D-I teams, losing two of three last week in Anaheim. Nevada has three starters back from LY's 28-7 team, one of whom is star guard Burton, who is a future NBA player.

**Udog** · 11-30-2012, 09:40 AM

NCAAB

Friday, November 30

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Trend Report
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6:30 PM
TENNESSEE vs. GEORGETOWN
Tennessee is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Tennessee's last 25 games on the road
Georgetown is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Georgetown is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games at home

7:00 PM
GEORGIA vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Georgia's last 7 games on the road
Georgia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
South Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
South Florida is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games at home

7:00 PM
LOUISIANA TECH vs. GEORGIA STATE
Louisiana Tech is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Louisiana Tech is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Georgia State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Georgia State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

7:30 PM
TENNESSEE TECH vs. LIPSCOMB
Tennessee Tech is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
No trends available

8:00 PM
UTAH vs. TEXAS STATE
Utah is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
No trends available

8:00 PM
OREGON STATE vs. KANSAS
No trends available
Kansas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games

8:00 PM
NORTHWESTERN STATE vs. OKLAHOMA
No trends available
Oklahoma is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Oklahoma is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
SYRACUSE vs. ARKANSAS
Syracuse is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arkansas is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games at home
Arkansas is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games

9:00 PM
DEPAUL vs. AUBURN
DePaul is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of DePaul's last 5 games on the road
Auburn is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Auburn is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games at home

9:05 PM
CS FULLERTON vs. EASTERN WASHINGTON
CS Fullerton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Eastern Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing CS Fullerton
Eastern Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing CS Fullerton

10:00 PM
DRAKE vs. NEVADA
Drake is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Nevada is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Nevada is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

10:00 PM
MONTANA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Montana is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
San Francisco is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home

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**Udog** · 11-30-2012, 02:59 PM

NCAAB
Top 25 Short Sheet

Friday, November 30

Tennessee at Georgetown, 6:30 ET
Tennessee: 10-1 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Georgetown: 5-17 ATS off a combined score of 125 points or less

Oregon State at Kansas, 8:00 ET
Oregon State: 15-2 ATS away off 5+ games forcing 14 TO's or less
Kansas: 36-16 Under off 4+ wins by 10+ points

Syracuse at Arkansas, 8:30 ET
Syracuse: 9-0 ATS away off 3+ wins by 15+ points
Arkansas: 3-14 ATS off an ATS win

**Udog** · 11-30-2012, 03:01 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Friday, November 30

Phoenix at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Phoenix: 1-5 ATS as a road underdog
Toronto: 11-4 ATS after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more

Philadelphia at Charlotte, 7:05 ET
Philadelphia: 33-19 ATS after a non-conference game
Charlotte: 3-12 ATS in home games off a road loss

Brooklyn at Orlando, 7:05 ET
Brooklyn: 7-20 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5
Orlando: 8-0 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more

Portland at Boston, 7:35 ET
Portland: 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 85 points or less
Boston: 10-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival

Washington at New York, 7:35 ET NBATV
Washington: 0-8 ATS in road games on Friday nights
New York: 14-4 ATS in home games after playing a road game

Cleveland at Atlanta, 7:35 ET
Cleveland: 33-14 Under after having lost 4 of their last 5
Atlanta: 2-13 ATS in home games in November

Detroit at Memphis, 8:05 ET
Detroit: 1-9 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more
Memphis: 10-2 ATS in November

Utah at Oklahoma City, 8:05 ET
Utah: 31-49 ATS after playing a game as favorite
Oklahoma City: 22-10 ATS after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games

Milwaukee at Minnesota, 8:05 ET
Milwaukee: 73-46 Over after 3 or more consecutive unders
Minnesota: 29-45 ATS after one or more consecutive overs

Indiana at Sacramento, 10:05 ET
Indiana: 8-0 Under in a road game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5
Sacramento: 5-20 ATS in November

Denver at LA Lakers, 10:35 ET ESPN
Denver: 17-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
LA Lakers: 7-19 ATS off a home loss

**Kaptain** · 11-30-2012, 05:21 PM

as always, thanks U Dog

Announcement

Friday's Trends and Indexes - 11/30 (NBA, NCAAB, Misc.)

Friday's Trends and Indexes - 11/30 (NBA, NCAAB, Misc.)

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