Announcement

**Udog** · 11-27-2012, 10:43 AM

NFL odds: Week 13 opening line report

The New England Patriots have no problem kicking teams when they’re down.

The Patriots have rolled to five straight wins (3-2 ATS) since losing to Seattle in Week 6, facing a soft stretch of schedule that featured St. Louis, Buffalo, Indianapolis, and the New York Jets twice.

In that span, New England has averaged a dynamite 43.8 points per game and has turned up the intensity even more in its previous two outings, hanging 59 and 49 points on the Colts and Jets respectively – easily covering as big favorites in both games.

“New England doesn’t f@ck around. They play to win,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club, told Covers. “Just look at the scores they’re putting up.”

Korner’s group of oddsmakers sent out a suggested spread of Patriots -9.5 on the road against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13. Most early offshore lines concur, setting New England as 9-point road chalk, but some are dealing the Pats as low as touchdown faves.

Korner says the way New England is steam-rolling the competition, books will have no shortage of money on the favorite, putting them in a precarious position of rooting for the Dolphins come Sunday afternoon.

“New England isn’t coasting,” says Korner. “The top record in the conference and home field is still up for grabs. New England needs that home field over Houston.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-9, 38)

The spread you see above is the suggested line with Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger out of Sunday’s AFC North rivalry game with the Ravens. As for the spread, if Big Ben is back under center, Korner says it could be down as low as a field goal.

“It could be down to -3 or -4,” he says. “(Roethlisberger) is worth a lot, especially compared to his backups.”

Pittsburgh has lost back-to-back outings since its starting QB went down versus Kansas City in Week 10, leaning on backups Byron Leftwich (who was injured in Week 11) and Charlie Batch, who threw three interceptions in a loss to Cleveland in Week 12.

The total would also see a boost as well with Roethlisberger back under center. If he is officially ruled out, Korner doesn’t expect the spread to climb to -10, due to the low number (38) suggested for the game.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 56)

The Saints looked like they were back from the dead after handing the Falcons their first loss of the season a few weeks ago. But, New Orleans took one on the chin from San Francisco this past weekend – losing 31-21 – and now faces a must-win situation on the road in Week 13.

“That loss ruled out this line turning sharply towards New Orleans,” says Korner, who doesn’t see it dropping below a field goal. “This is a do-or-die game for the Saints, and that’s the great equalizer in this game for books to draw two-way action.”

The 56-point total is the highest in the NFL this season and matches the number from New Orleans’ meeting with Denver back in Week 8, which went as high as 56 before closing at 55 points.

“This is one of the highest totals of the year,” says Korner. “It’s indoors on a fast track.”

New Orleans and Atlanta played over the 54-point total in Week 10, with the Saints winning 31-27 at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos (-7, 50)

Books and bettors believe in the Broncos with this spread, setting Denver as a touchdown favorite versus a Tampa Bay team that has been competitive in every game this season – win or lose.

The Broncos are especially tough at home, where they are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. Denver is averaging more than 31 points per game at Mile High, and an improved Bucs offense - ranked fourth in the NFL in points (28.2 ppg) - has this total opening as high as 50.5 points.

“Tampa Bay is competitive and can put up some points,” says Korner. “It’s going to be a entertaining, high-scoring game.”

**Udog** · 11-27-2012, 10:44 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, November 29

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NEW ORLEANS (5 - 6) at ATLANTA (10 - 1) - 11/29/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 2

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SEATTLE (6 - 5) at CHICAGO (8 - 3) - 12/2/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (6 - 5) at GREEN BAY (7 - 4) - 12/2/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 146-107 ATS (+28.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (8 - 2 - 1) at ST LOUIS (4 - 6 - 1) - 12/2/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 125-161 ATS (-52.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 91-125 ATS (-46.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 97-128 ATS (-43.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 45-68 ATS (-29.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 125-161 ATS (-52.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 4-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (4 - 7) at NY JETS (4 - 7) - 12/2/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (3 - 8) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 10) - 12/2/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 45-24 ATS (+18.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 64-37 ATS (+23.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 43-21 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 4) at DETROIT (4 - 7) - 12/2/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
DETROIT is 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 9) at BUFFALO (4 - 7) - 12/2/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (8 - 3) at MIAMI (5 - 6) - 12/2/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 151-111 ATS (+28.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 45-24 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (10 - 1) at TENNESSEE (4 - 7) - 12/2/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (6 - 5) at DENVER (8 - 3) - 12/2/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (6 - 5) at BALTIMORE (9 - 2) - 12/2/2012, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (3 - 8) at OAKLAND (3 - 8) - 12/2/2012, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (6 - 5) at SAN DIEGO (4 - 7) - 12/2/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 108-143 ATS (-49.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 8) at DALLAS (5 - 6) - 12/2/2012, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 3

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NY GIANTS (7 - 4) at WASHINGTON (5 - 6) - 12/3/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 27-48 ATS (-25.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-27-2012, 10:44 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, November 29, 2012

(TC) New Orleans at Atlanta, 8:25 ET NFL
New Orleans: 11-1 ATS in the second half of the season
Atlanta: 9-23 ATS at home off BB wins

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Seattle at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 14-1 Over as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Chicago: 9-4 ATS off a division game

Minnesota at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 36-20 Over after scoring 3 or less first-half points
Green Bay: 8-1 ATS off BB road games

San Francisco at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 10-2 ATS off a road game
St. Louis: 8-1 Under off a SU win as an underdog

Arizona at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 12-29 ATS away with a total of 35.5 to 38 points
NY Jets: 16-3 ATS at home off a home loss

Carolina at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 11-6 ATS vs. AFC West opponents
Kansas City: 12-2 Under off a divison game

Indianapolis at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 28-14 ATS away after allowing 14 points or less
Detroit: 21-39 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Jacksonville at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 11-2 ATS off 3+ games allowing 400+ total yards
Buffalo: 2-8 ATS off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games

New England at Miami, 1:00 ET
New England: 8-1 ATS away off 3+ Overs
Miami: 18-37 ATS off a SU win as an underdog

Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Houston: 8-1 ATS after scoring 30+ points
Tennessee: 1-8 ATS vs. division opponents

Tampa Bay at Denver, 4:05 ET
Tampa Bay: 14-5 ATS as a road underdog
Denver: 14-5 Over off a road game

Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 6-1 ATS off a road loss
Baltimore: 8-2 Under off BB ATS wins

Cleveland at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Cleveland: 1-5 ATS off a SU win as an underdog
Oakland: 19-8 Under off BB losses by 10+ points

Cincinnati at San Diego, 4:25 ET
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS away off an ATS win
San Diego: 10-1 Over off an Under

(TC) Philadelphia at Dallas, 8:30 ET NBC
Philadelphia: 6-0 Under revenging a home loss by 14+ points
Dallas: 4-12 ATS vs. division opponents

Monday, December 3, 2012

(TC) NY Giants at Washington, 8:40 ET ESPN
NY Giants: 9-2 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Washington: 2-9 ATS off a road game

(TC) = Time Change

**Udog** · 11-27-2012, 10:45 AM

NFL

Week 13

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 29

8:20 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New Orleans's last 16 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games

Sunday, December 2

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games on the road
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
New England is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Miami
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
Miami is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. DETROIT
Indianapolis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Houston

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Green Bay's last 11 games at home
Green Bay is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. KANSAS CITY
Carolina is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kansas City's last 13 games at home
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. BUFFALO
Jacksonville is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
San Francisco4-0-1 SU in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-7-1 SU in its last 9 games ,when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 5 games

4:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. DENVER
Tampa Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Denver's last 24 games at home
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

4:15 PM
CINCINNATI vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of San Diego's last 17 games at home

4:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Baltimore is 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

4:15 PM
CLEVELAND vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Oakland
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oakland's last 9 games at home

8:20 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DALLAS
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Dallas's last 22 games at home

Monday, December 3

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Giants last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of the NY Giants last 11 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Washington is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants

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**Udog** · 11-29-2012, 09:28 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 13

New Orleans at Atlanta
The Falcons look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 Thursday games. Atlanta is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 29

Game 301-302: New Orleans at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 133.547; Atlanta 138.869
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2); Under

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 2

Game 339-340: Seattle at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 135.112; Chicago 136.656
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3 1/2); Over

Game 341-342: Minnesota at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 124.480; Green Bay 140.252
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 16; 42
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7 1/2); Under

Game 343-344: San Francisco at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.464; St. Louis 127.502
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 15; 46
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 7; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-7); Over

Game 345-346: Arizona at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 126.046; NY Jets 128.310
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: N Y Jets by 4 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4 1/2); Over

Game 347-348: Carolina at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 125.706; Kansas City 125.942
Dunkel Line: Even; 36
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Under

Game 349-350: Indianapolis at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 130.891; Detroit 132.313
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Detroit by 5; 51
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+5); Over

Game 351-352: Jacksonville at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 119.308; Buffalo 131.083
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 12; 41
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-5 1/2); Under

Game 353-354: New England at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 146.076; Miami 129.501
Dunkel Line: New England by 16 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 7 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7 1/2); Under

Game 355-356: Houston at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.278; Tennessee 131.170
Dunkel Line: Houston by 3; 52
Vegas Line: Houston by 6; 47
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+6); Over

Game 357-358: Tampa Bay at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 135.326; Denver 143.808
Dunkel Line: Denver by 8 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Under

Game 359-360: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.383; Baltimore 137.929
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 361-362: Cleveland at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 129.891; Oakland 122.374
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 7 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 363-364: Cincinnati at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.820; San Diego 133.723
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 42
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2 1/2); Under

Game 365-366: Philadelphia at Dallas (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 121.848; Dallas 136.507
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10; 43
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-10); Over

MONDAY, DECEMBER 3

Game 367-368: NY Giants at Washington (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 137.592; Washington 131.257
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-2 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 11-29-2012, 09:30 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Saints (5-6) @ Falcons (10-1)—New Orleans (+2) beat Falcons 31-27 at home three weeks ago, Atlanta’s only loss this year, outrushing them 148-46 for 11th win in last 13 series games; Saints won last three visits here, all by exactly three points. Five of last six series games were decided by 4 or less points. Falcons’ last three games were also all decided by 4 or less points; they’re 5-0 at home, with all five wins by 6 or less points (2-3 as HF). Atlanta is 6-4-1 vs spread in last 11 games as a divisional home favorite. Saints are 5-1 when they score 28+ points, 0-5 when they don’t; they’re 2-2 as underdog this year, 1-1 on road. Atlanta allowed 28+ points in only two games, but one of them was against Saints. Last three NO games went over the total; five of last seven Falcon games stayed under. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season.

Seahawks (6-5) @ Bears (8-3)—Seattle’s starting CBs may be suspended soon for PED use, but are expected to play here; once they’re out we’ll look to play against Seattle, with games going over total. Chicago was held to 10-6-7 points in its three losses (Pack-Texans-49ers); they’re 5-1 at home, 3-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 20-17-6-1-18 points. Seattle is 1-5 on road despite being favored in half the games; they’re 2-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 4-6-7-4-3 points- they’ve won regular season games here last two years (23-20/38-14) but lost 35-24 in ’10 playoffs; Hawks lead 9-6 overall in series. Seattle allowed 20+ points in three of last four games. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-8 vs spread; NFC West road underdogs are 6-5. Four of last five Chicago home games stayed under total; three of last four Seattle games went over.

Vikings (6-5) @ Packers (7-4)—Green Bay hasn’t played well in two post-bye games, limping past Lions 24-20 (never got inside Detroit red zone despite +3 turnover margin), getting waxed by Giants last week. Pack is home for first time in four weeks; they’re 2-3 as home favorites, winning last four at Lambeau by 13-1-9-14 points. Packers scored 34.3 ppg in winning last four series games; Vikings lost five of last six visits here, with losses by 2-34-5-4-38 points. Fading Minnesota lost three of last four games, allowing 29.5 ppg (14 TDs on last 46 drives), after allowing average of 18.7 ppg in first seven games; they’re 1-4 on road, 1-2 as road dog, losing away games by 3-12-10-18 points Three of last four Viking games went over total, as have three of five Green Bay home games. Home favorites are 2-3 vs spread in NFC North divisional games.

49ers (8-2-1) @ Rams (4-6-1)—Teams battled to 24-24 tie (SF -12) three weeks ago in Candlestick, with both teams missing FGs to win it; Niners are 7-1-1 in last nine series games, winning four of last five visits here, with wins by 1-1-22-7 points. Rams are 4-1 in games where spread was 3 or less points; they’re 0-5-1 in other games, losing last two home games by 10-14 points. St Louis is 7-3 vs spread as a dog, 3-1 at home. All eight SF wins this year are by 7+ points; they’re 4-1 on road, 3-1 as road favorites, winning away games by 8-34-21-10 points. Kaepernick’s mobility gives them another dimension, but fact is they were losing in Superdome last week until defense scored two TDs off Brees. Last three 49er games, last five Ram games all went over the total. Underdogs are 5-1-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games.

Cardinals (4-7) @ Jets (4-7)—Arizona lost last seven games after 4-0 start; in last two games, Cardinal offense scored three TDs on 28 drives, while giving up three TDs to opposing defenses. Redbirds are 1-4 on road, 2-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 14-7-14-4 points. If they had a decent QB, they’d be a contender, but they don’t. Jets lost five of last six games, with last three losses by 21-21-30 points; they’re 2-4 at home this year, 3-1 vs spread as a favorite, with only home wins by 20-21 points. Gang Green is 1-7 when their turnover ratio is worse than +3. Jets won last five series meetings by average score of 35-15, winning last one 56-35 here back in ’08. Last time Cardinals beat Jets was in ’75. NFC West road underdogs are 6-5 vs spread; AFC East home favorites are 4-3. Five of last seven Arizona games stayed under the total.

Panthers (3-8) @ Chiefs (1-10)—Very tough to lay points on road with 3-8 Panther squad that was fired up for rare MNF appearance, and is now travelling on short week, but since late rally vs Chargers fell short in Week 4, Kansas City has three offensive TDs on 76 drives (0 for 21 in last two games), while allowing three return TDs to opponents; they’ve now lost seven games in row, are 0-6 at home for first time since 1976. KC has 83 points in last seven games (11.9 ppg). Carolina covered last four road games, winning last two (Wash/Phil). Three of last four Carolina road games went over total; last three Chief games stayed under. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 4-0 on road; AFC West underdogs are 6-13, 2-5 at home. Bad teams have very little enthusiasm from fans, therefore very small, if any home field advantage.

Colts (7-4) @ Lions (4-7)—Indy had -4 turnover ratio in three of four losses; they’re 7-1 otherwise, making them live dog here; Colts won/covered five of last six games, with only loss in Foxboro- they’re 4-3 vs spread as underdog, 1-3 on road. Detroit has only two takeaways (-5) in last three games; they’ve lost last three weeks, allowing 30.7 ppg (nine TDs/10 FGA on last 37 drives)- their last seven TDs allow all came on drives of 74+ yards, so they’re not stopping anyone, and Colts have good offense, converting 16 of last 30 3rd down plays. Lions are 2-3 vs spread as underdog, 1-2 at home. Indy won last three series games by average score of 34-16, but that was with Manning at QB. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Indy games, 1-4 in last five Detroit games. AFC South underdogs are 11-9 vs spread, 5-5 on road; NFC North favorites are 10-11, 6-8 at home.

Jaguars (2-9) @ Bills (4-7)—Buffalo is 4-0 when it allows 17 or less points, 0-7 when it doesn’t. December trip up north for Florida team is generally bad news for visitors, but since Henne became QB, Jags scored 37-24 points in last two games (7 TDs on last 25 drives), and appear energized. Jax is also 5-0 vs spread on road, with losses by 3-3-9-6 points, but three of those five road games were in domes. Buffalo lost four of last five games, with only win vs Miami (Florida team coming north); Bills are 2-2 SU at home, 3-1 vs spread as favorites this year, with home wins by 18-5 points. Jaguars won four of six visits here, winning 36-26 in last trip here, two years ago. AFC East favorites are 7-5 vs spread, 4-3 at home; AFC South underdogs are 10-9, 5-5 on road. Three of last four Buffalo games stayed under the total.

Patriots (8-3) @ Dolphins (5-6)—New England has five return TDs in last two games; Miami hasn’t forced a turnover in its last four games. Last week was first time Dolphins won without positive turnover ratio (1-6). Patriots won four in row, eight of last 10 series games, winning four of last five visits here, with wins by 21-20-27-14 points. NE is 17-6-1 vs spread in last 24 games as a divisional road favorite; they’re 4-2 on road, this year, with all four wins by 21+ points. Pats’ losses are by 1-1-2 points, so in reality, they’re seven points away from being 11-0 right now. Miami is 3-2 at home, with three of five games decided by exactly 3 points. Over last decade, Miami is 5-9 as a divisional home dog. Last nine Patriot games went over the total; under is 5-1-1 in last seven Miami games. Home teams are 2-6 vs spread in AFC divisional games, home dogs are 0-3.

Texans (10-1) @ Titans (4-7)—Tennessee’s development of young Locker as QB of future took major hit when they fired OC Palmer Monday; now you have 2nd-year QB with very little experience, a rookie OC, and a 2nd-year HC with an Impatient 86-year old owner who never should’ve let Jeff Fisher get out of Nashville in first place. Titans lost 38-14 (+13) at Houston in Week 4; Texans had two return TDs, +3 turnover ratio in game that was only 14-7 at half. Potential trap game for Houston, which plays in Foxboro next week; they’re 5-0 on road this year, 2-1-1 as road favorite, winning road games by 20-6-6-7-3 points. Titans are 4-5 as underdogs this year, 2-2 at home. Six of last nine Houston games went over total; three of last four Titan games stayed under. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season.

Buccaneers (6-5) @ Broncos (8-3)—Denver won last six games, failed to cover last two, despite winning by 7-8 points; they’re 3-1 as Mile High favorites, with home wins by 12-31-20-7 points, and loss to Houston. Bronco defense has improved greatly; opponents converted just six of last 42 third down plays. Bucs had 4-game win streak snapped last week; they’re 5-1-1 as an underdog this year, 4-0 on road, winning last three games on foreign soil while scoring 35 ppg. Broncos won five of seven series games, with last four all decided by 4 or less points; Bucs lost three of four visits here, with only win in ’93, and last two losses by 4-3 points. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 9-1 vs spread this season; AFC West favorites are 5-5, 3-3 at home. Six of last eight Tampa games, five of last seven Broncos tilts went over the total.

Steelers (6-5) @ Ravens (9-2)—Pittsburgh scored 16-10-14 points in last three games, losing last two with backup QBs playing, scoring just single FG in second half of those games; Batch-led Steelers had 8 turnovers (-7) last week, first NFL team in 11 years to do that, so Big Ben’s recovery probably accelerated here, as Ravens beat Pitt 13-10 (-3.5) two weeks ago at Heinz, despite being outgained 311-200. Ravens were +3 in turnovers that game, are +7 in last four; they’re 2-3 as home favorites this year, winning at home by 31-1-7-2-35 points. Baltimore scored only 13-16 points in last two games, but won both with defense, converted 4th-and-29 swing pass on game-tying drive last week. Pitt is 2-4 on road, losing by 12-3-3-6 points; they’re Home teams covered four of first six AFC North divisional games. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Steeler games, 3-1 in last four Raven games.

Browns (3-8) @ Raiders (3-8)— Cleveland is 3-3 since last six games since starting out 0-5; they’re 0-5 on road, though, with four losses by 7 or less points. Browns beat rival Steelers at home last week, forcing eight turnovers from 37-year old, 3rd-string QB Batch; they’re 3-7-1 vs spread in game following their last 11 wins. Oakland lost last four games, allowing 42.3 ppg (20 TDs on last 48 drives), 182.5 rushing yards/game; they’re 2-3 at home, beating Steelers/Jaguars by FG each. Raiders are 0-3 as a favorite this year; since 2006, they’re a ridiculous 4-16 vs spread when favored. Home team won last three series games, with Browns losing 26-24/24-17 in last two visits here. AFC North underdogs are 6-7 vs spread, 4-4 on road; AFC West favorites are 5-5, 3-3 at home. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Cleveland games, 1-5 in last six Raider games.

Bengals (6-5) @ Chargers (4-7)—San Diego couldn’t stop Ray Rice from getting first down on 4th-and-29 last week, which led to tying FG in OT loss that officially ended its season; Chargers lost six of last seven games, with only win vs hideous Chiefs- they’re 2-3 at home, and forced total of only nine turnover in non-Chief games (10 takeaways in two games vs KC). Bengals won last three games allowing 9.7 ppg (two TDs on 35 drives); they’re 6-0 when they score 27+ points, 0-5 when they don’t. San Diego allowed 30+ points in four of its last seven games- they haven’t had TD drive of less than 78 yards since Week 6. Chargers are 8-3 in last 11 series games, winning five of last six played here. AFC West teams are 5-8 vs spread in non-divisional home games; AFC North teams are 6-8 on road. Under is 6-2 in last eight Bengal games, 2-6 in last eight San Diego games.

Eagles (3-8) @ Cowboys (5-6)—Eagles are in tank, losing last seven games (0-6 vs spread in last six); national TV cameras didn’t help them last week, likely won’t help here, especially with WR Jackson now out for year (ribs)- their three wins are by 1-1-2 points, so they’re seven points away from being 0-11. Dallas beat them 38-23 (-1) three weeks ago at the Linc, despite being outgained by 75 yards- Pokes had three return TDs in same quarter. Cowboys are 6-19-1 vs spread in last 26 games as a favorite, 2-5 this year; they’re 2-3 at home this year, 0-4 as home favorite, beating Bucs by 6, Browns by 3. Foles hasn’t been awful at QB for Eagles; he is a Dallas kid (Westlake Carroll HS). Eagles have two takeaways (-8) in last five games. Home teams are 1-6 vs spread in NFC East games, home favorites 1-4. All five Eagle road games stayed under the total; three of last four Dallas home games went over.

Giants (7-4) @ Redskins (5-6)—Washington scored go-ahead TD with 1:32 left to take 23-20 lead in Week 7’s first meeting, but Manning hit on 77-yard TD pass on first play after kickoff to give Giants dramatic win, their 7th in last nine series games. Big Blue is 0-4 when they score 20 or less points, 7-0 when they score more; Redskins allowed 21+ points in nine of 11 games. Both teams have played better since their bye; Redskins scored 31-38 points in beating other two division rivals; they’ve had three extra days to prepare since Turkey Day win. Giants looked invigorated in crushing Green Bay last week. Home teams are 1-6 vs spread in NFC East games, home underdogs 0-2. Last three Giant games, three of last four Washington games stayed under the total. Last four years, team that won first series meeting also won the second; Giants won five of last six visits here.

**Udog** · 11-29-2012, 09:32 AM

NFL

Thursday, November 29

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Thursday Night Football: Saints at Falcons
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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 56)

The Atlanta Falcons look to avenge their only loss of the season Thursday when they kick off Week 13 with a rematch with the NFC South-rival New Orleans Saints at the Georgia Dome.

Atlanta opened the season with eight straight victories before running into a hot New Orleans team that posted a 31-27 triumph at home on Nov. 11. Tight end Jimmy Graham caught seven passes for a career-high 146 yards and two touchdowns and Jabari Greer broke up a pass in the end zone on fourth-and-goal late in the fourth quarter to preserve the Saints' fourth win in five games.

Atlanta has squeaked out a pair of wins since the loss to New Orleans, posting a four-point triumph over Arizona before edging the Buccaneers 24-23 in Tampa Bay on Sunday. Seven of the Falcons' 10 victories have been by seven points or less. After opening the campaign with four consecutive setbacks, the Saints got back in playoff contention by winning five of their next six contests. But their postseason hopes took a hit Sunday as they fell to NFC West-leading San Francisco at home, 31-21.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The Falcons opened as 3.5-point favorites and have dropped to -3 at some markets. The 56 points total ties the highest total of the season and has dropped to 55.5 at some books.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-6, 6-5 ATS): New Orleans would have vaulted into sixth place - and a wild card spot - in the NFC with a win over San Francisco. Instead, it sits in 11th and faces two more division leaders over the next two weeks. Quarterback Drew Brees extended his NFL-record streak of consecutive games with a touchdown pass to 54 with three scoring tosses but also had two passes intercepted and returned for TDs. He now has 31 touchdown strikes this year, making him just the third QB in league history to reach the 30-TD plateau in five or more seasons. Brees joins Brett Favre (nine) and Peyton Manning (six) in that category. Brees (2008-12) and Favre (1994-98) are the only two to do it in five consecutive campaigns. Wide receiver Marques Colston notched a franchise-record 56th touchdown of his career Sunday. He had been tied with Deuce McAllister atop the franchise list.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (10-1, 6-4-1 ATS): Sunday's margin of victory could have been larger had Matt Bryant not struggled. The kicker missed a 22-yard field-goal attempt as time expired in the first half and failed to convert a 48-yarder with eight seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. It was the second time in four games Bryant has missed a pair of attempts. Wide receiver Julio Jones showed no signs of injury against Tampa Bay, catching six passes for 147 yards - including an 80-yard touchdown reception in the third quarter. Jones had been limited in practice last week due to a sore right ankle. Quarterback Matt Ryan has now led five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter this season and 21 during his five-year career. Running back Michael Turner capped the latest one Sunday, scoring on a 3-yard run with 7:55 remaining.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Saints have won four straight and 11 of the last 13 meetings between the division rivals.

2. Graham and Atlanta's Tony Gonzalez became the first pair of tight ends to have at least 120 yards receiving and two TDs in the same game.

3. Gonzalez caught a pair of scoring passes in the first meeting, the first making him the first tight end in NFL history with 100 touchdown receptions.

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**Udog** · 11-29-2012, 09:35 AM

NFL

Thursday, November 29

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Tale of the tape: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
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Time is running out on the Saints, as they travel to Atlanta to face the rival Falcons Thursday night. Find out how this matchup breaks down in all three facets of the game with our tale of the tape.

Offense

New Orleans was held under 28 points for the first time in four games against San Francisco last Sunday. Drew Brees threw for only 267 yards in the loss, but did find the end zone three times to go along with two interceptions. Brees has thrown 11 picks already this season after tossing only 14 all of last year. Perhaps he's trying to do too much, with the Saints ground game stuck in neutral. They ran for just 59 yards on 21 attempts last Sunday, and are averaging 91.5 rush yards per game on the season.

Atlanta has been the picture of consistency on offense this season, scoring at least 23 points in all but one of its 11 games. Matt Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards in four consecutive games, while Jacquizz Rodgers appears to be slowly overtaking Michael Turner as the team's feature running back. With Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez enjoying tremendous success, the Falcons’ ground game has become a bit of an afterthought this season.

Edge: Atlanta

Defense

Not surprisingly, we've seen the Saints defense take a step back in the post-Gregg Williams era. They did appear to be gaining some traction, having held their last three opponents to a combined 57 points before giving up 31 against the 49ers. Their defense - or lack thereof - is a big reason why the Saints have been outgained in terms of total yardage in each of their last seven contests. Note that New Orleans has held its own defensively in this series, giving up 24 points or less in regulation time in five of its last six meetings with Atlanta.

The Falcons haven't been healthy on the defensive side of the football for much of the season, but have still put up some solid numbers. They've been gashed by the run at times, allowing 4.8 yards per rush on the year, but have made up for it with a secondary that allows just seven yards per pass play. Asante Samuel, Dunta Robinson, and Peria Jerry have all missed practice time this week, but at least two of the three are expected to play Thursday night.

Edge: Atlanta

Special teams

The Saints have been atrocious on punt returns this season, averaging a paltry 5.8 yards per return. It's unlikely we'll see them break through in that department against a Falcons special teams unit that allows only 7.6 ypr. The good news is, the Saints’ kick return game has been much better, gaining a whopping 27.9 ypr. Specialist Courtney Roby has been a big contributor. Kicker Garrett Hartley hasn't been busy, converting on only nine of 12 field goal attempts.

Like the Saints, the Falcons have struggled returning punts, but have performed above the league average on kickoffs. They'll go against a New Orleans special teams unit that allows close to nine yards per punt return, and 22 yards on kickoffs. Few kickers have been as reliable as Matt Bryant this season. He's had a heavy workload, and has made the most of it, converting 26-of-31 field goal attempts.

Edge: Atlanta

Word on the street

"It makes it more juicy. It makes the rivalry better. And I like competing against these guys. We always know we're gonna get a good game." -- Saints safety Roman Harper referring to the trash talk leading up to this week's game.

"Ten and one is great, but I'll tell you what I've said since the beginning of the season: We're just jockeying for position. We just want to put ourselves in the best position, playing the best football." -- Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez speaking about his team's NFC-best record.

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**Udog** · 12-01-2012, 07:52 AM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 13

Seattle at Chicago (-3.5, 37.5)

Jay Cutler returned against the Vikings last week and led four straight scoring drives in the first and second quarters as Chicago cruised to a 28-10 win. The Seahawks should have their full secondary ready to attack Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall, as the potential suspensions for CBs Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner, who both tested positive for a banned stimulant, are under appeal. Seattle is 1-5 on the road this season and has suffered all five of those road losses by a touchdown or less, including last week’s 24-21 setback at Miami. Bears RB Matt Forte (ankle) has been limited in practice but says he will be ready to go for Sunday. These teams have played over the total in their last seven meetings.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-9.5, 46.5)

The Vikings and Packers square off in a crucial game for their playoff prospects Sunday at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is coming off a 38-10 prime-time loss to the New York Giants and is now a game behind the division-leading Bears. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has the highest QB rating in the league (105.6), but he has been held under 300 yards passing in four consecutive games. However, he will have one of his favorite targets back on the field this week, as WR Greg Jennings will make his return after missing seven games because of abdominal surgery. These teams have played over the total in seven of their last eight meetings.

San Francisco at St. Louis (7.5, 40)

The last time Alex Smith started at QB he was knocked out of the game and the 49ers ended up tying the St. Louis Rams after Colin Kaepernick stepped in and helped overcome a 17-7 deficit. This time, Kaepernick will get the start over a healthy Smith when San Francisco visits the Rams. The Niners’ passing game will have to be efficient because the ground game has been in a funk as of late. Frank Gore rushed for 97 yards on 21 carries in the first meeting with St. Louis this season, but has been held under 100 yards in four straight games. St. Louis could be without top WR Danny Amendola (heel), who has missed practice this week because of the injury. The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

Arizona at New York Jets (-4.5, 36.5)

Both of these clubs are coming off lopsided home losses that dropped them to 4-7 on the campaign. The Cardinals have stumbled to seven consecutive defeats following a 4-0 start but they do own a victory at New England, a team that has defeated the Jets twice, including a 49-19 beating on Thanksgiving night. Arizona hasn’t scored 20 points since Week 4 and is averaging a paltry 12.7 points during its seven-game skid. The Jets have taken the last five meetings and none of New York's remaining five opponents currently has more than four wins. The under is 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last six road games.

Carolina at Kansas City (3, 40.5)

Cam Newton threw for a pair of touchdowns and rushed for two more as Carolina posted a 30-22 victory over Philadelphia on Monday night. Newton could be in line for another field day against Kansas City, which can match its longest losing skid in franchise history with a ninth straight loss on Sunday. The Chiefs are counting on Brady Quinn to spark an offense that has mustered just three touchdowns in the last seven contests. With RB Jonathan Stewart likely sidelined with a high ankle sprain, DeAngelo Williams will receive the bulk of the carries in the backfield for the Panthers. Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.

Indianapolis at Detroit (-5, 51)

The Lions suffered their third straight loss with a 34-31 overtime setback to Houston on Nov. 22, but the talk resonating from the game centered on the intent of Ndamukong Suh's kick to the groin of QB Matt Schaub. Commissioner Roger Goodell elected not to suspend the mammoth defensive tackle, but the league issued a $30,000 fine instead. Interim Colts coach Bruce Arians has won six of eight contests while filling in for Chuck Pagano and Indy has covered in five of its last six games overall.

Jacksonville at Buffalo (-6, 44.5)

The Bills have tumbled down the standings following four losses in five games, including last week's 20-13 defeat at Indianapolis. Buffalo continues to struggle in the red zone, managing only one touchdown in each of its last two games, and has surrendered a punt return for a score in consecutive weeks. The Jaguars have come to life under backup QB Chad Henne and snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 24-19 victory over Tennessee last week. Henne has thrown for 615 yards with six touchdowns and one interception in his two appearances this campaign. Surprisingly, Jacksonville is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.

New England at Miami (9, 51)

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots look to extend their five-game winning streak when they visit Miami. New England has scored 108 points in its last two games, the third-highest two-game total in NFL history. The Patriots have put up at least 37 points in each of their last four games and the scary part is that they’ve taken their foot off the gas in each one. Miami has been gashed through the air this season. The Dolphins rank 27th against the pass and they can’t count on the takeaways when they face Brady, who has been picked off just three times on the season. These teams have played over the total in their last four meetings.

Houston at Tennessee (6.5, 47)

The Texans have won five straight, including back-to-back overtime victories against Jacksonville and Detroit, and need just one more win to break the franchise record of 10 set last season. Houston also will clinch a playoff spot with a win or tie. Tennessee has lost three of four, including a 24-19 loss at Jacksonville last week, to fall two games off the wild card pace with five games to play. The Titans’ stop unit is among the league's worst and is ranked 31st in scoring and 29th in total yards. Houston is 5-0 on the road with four of those wins coming by seven points or less.

Tampa Bay at Denver (-8, 50.5)

The Buccaneers had their four-game winning streak snapped with last week's one-point home loss to Atlanta, but remain in a three-way tie with the Seahawks and Vikings for the final playoff spot in the NFC. Tampa Bay had rolled up an average of nearly 35 points during its four-game winning streak, but bogged down at critical moments in the 24-23 loss to the Falcons. The Broncos can wrap up their second straight AFC West title with a victory. Denver enters on a six-game winning streak, but the Bucs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-9.5, 35)

Pittsburgh, which has lost two straight without QB Ben Roethlisberger, desperately needs a win when it travels to Baltimore to avoid seeing its playoff hopes take another hit. Roethlisberger is back practicing in a limited capacity but has been ruled out, so veteran Charlie Batch will start. The Ravens can clinch a playoff berth with a win, and if their victory is paired with a Cincinnati loss at San Diego, they'll lock up the division crown. Baltimore enters on a four-game winning streak and has won 15 consecutive regular-season home games - the longest active streak in the NFL. The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall.

Cleveland at Oakland (1, 38)

Cleveland recorded eight turnovers against injury-ravaged Pittsburgh last week en route to a 20-14 triumph. Rookie QB Brandon Weeden suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter of the victory, but is probable to be under center Sunday. Oakland could receive a boost in the backfield as Darren McFadden has resumed practicing and is in line to return after missing the last three contests with an ankle sprain. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.

Cincinnati at San Diego (1, 45.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals have put themselves in a wild card position with three straight wins. The Bengals have demolished the Giants, Chiefs and Raiders by an average of 21.3 points over the last three weeks. Andy Dalton has thrown for nine touchdowns and no interceptions in that span while the defense has been able to get pressure on opposing QBs and defend well against the passing game. That’s bad news for the Chargers, who have struggled passing and stopping the pass. San Diego has dropped six of its last seven games and has surrendered at least 30 points in four of those setbacks. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-10.5, 43)

The Eagles haven't tasted victory since Week 4, when they improved to 3-1 with a 19-17 triumph over the Giants. Injuries have ravaged the offense and Andy Reid is basically a lame-duck coach waiting for the axe to fall at season's end. On top of injuries to key cogs, Michael Vick (concussion) and LeSean McCoy (concussion), top wideout DeSean Jackson has been placed on IR with fractured ribs. Dallas, which is last in the league with an average of 78.7 rushing yards, may receive a boost Sunday as RB DeMarco Murray (foot) could be available. The Eagles are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

New York Giants at Washington (1, 51)

New York avoided a major downward spiral last Sunday night, when it posted a convincing 38-10 home victory over the Packers. Prior to the win, the Giants suffered losses at home to Pittsburgh and in Cincinnati. But not everything that came out of Sunday's win over the Packers was good as RB Andre Brown suffered a broken leg and is out for the remainder of the season. David Wilson could see more playing time in place of Brown, who leads the NFC with eight rushing touchdowns. Washington suffered a 27-23 setback to the Giants in Week 7 at MetLife Stadium. But New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four meetings with the Redskins.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-01-2012, 07:43 PM

Bucs at Broncos: What bettors need to know

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos (-8.5, 50.5)

The signing of Peyton Manning has reaped huge dividends for the Denver Broncos, who can wrap up their second straight AFC West title with a victory over the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. Whereas the Broncos lost their final three last season in backing into the division title, Manning has guided them to six consecutive victories and into contention for a possible first-round bye in the postseason. The Buccaneers had their four-game winning streak snapped with last week's one-point home loss to Atlanta, but remain in a three-way tie with the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings for the final playoff spot in the NFC. Denver has not won seven straight since the 1998 season, when it won the second of back-to-back Super Bowl titles.

TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Broncos -8.5, O/U 50.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (6-5): Tampa Bay had rolled up an average of nearly 35 points during its four-game winning streak, but bogged down at critical moments in the 24-23 loss to the Falcons. Quarterback Josh Johnson failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season following a stretch of six straight games with multiple scoring passes. The Buccaneers also struggled in the running game, with rookie Doug Martin held to 50 yards on 21 carries following a four-game stretch in which he amassed 592 yards and five touchdowns. Tampa Bay's defense, which ranks last in the league against the pass (315.5 yards), lost CB Eric Wright to a four-game suspension for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-3): Manning, the league's only four-time MVP, had 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions to insert himself into the conversation for the award once again after sitting out last season while undergoing multiple neck surgeries. Denver's running game got a huge jolt when oft-injured Knowshon Moreno came out of mothballs to rush for 85 yards on 20 carries in last week's 17-9 win at Kansas City. Moreno, a former first-round pick, had not played since Week 2 but filled the void left by the injury to Willis McGahee, who is expected to be sidelined for six to eight weeks. Linebacker Von Miller had eight sacks in four games in November, pushing his total to 14 and giving the Broncos a league-best 37.

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 13 games.
* Over is 7-1 in Buccaneers’ last eight games overall.
* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four December games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas has gone over 100 yards in three of five home games.

2. Bucs wideouts Vincent Jackson (20.4) and Mike Williams (16.9) rank among the top five in the NFC in yards per catch.

3. Manning produced one of the greatest comebacks in league history against Tampa Bay in 2003, rallying Indianapolis from a 21-point deficit in the final four minutes of regulation for a 38-35 overtime win.

**Udog** · 12-01-2012, 09:24 PM

NFL

Sunday, December 2

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Vikings at Packers: What bettors need to know
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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, 45.5)

After absorbing big hits to their NFC North title hopes last week, the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers square off in a crucial game for their playoff prospects Sunday at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is coming off a 38-10 prime-time loss to the New York Giants and has fallen a game behind the division-leading Chicago Bears, who thumped the Vikings 28-10. Minnesota is two games back in the division and in a three-way tie for the final wild card.

It's the first of two meetings over the next five weeks; the teams will wrap up the regular season against one another in Minnesota. The Packers have won four straight meetings and nine of the past 12 against the Vikings, and they've won nine straight against division rivals.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Packers -9.5, O/U 45.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the WSW at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (6-5): Minnesota is one of the more surprising playoff contenders thanks to running back Adrian Peterson's speedy recovery from surgery to repair a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Peterson leads the league with 1,236 rushing yards and has recorded five straight 100-yard games. Quarterback Christian Ponder has been less consistent. After a solid start to the season, he has thrown nine interceptions in the past seven games and he has averaged just 150.4 passing yards over the past four. The Vikings have gone 1-3 during that stretch.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (7-4): Green Bay's five-game winning streak came to a crashing halt Sunday night against the Giants, as the Packers were dominated on both sides of the ball. The division title is still very much in play, though, with four of Green Bay's five remaining games against division opponents, including a trip to Chicago in Week 15. Aaron Rodgers has the highest quarterback rating in the league (105.6), but he has been held under 300 yards in four consecutive games. The passing game could get a bit of a boost this week, as receiver Greg Jennings will make his return after missing seven games because of abdominal surgery.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Over is 7-1 in Packers’ last eight games following a loss.
* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Rodgers has thrown a touchdown pass in 35 consecutive home games, including the postseason.

2. Peterson has five career 100-yard rushing games against the Packers, and he has scored a rushing touchdown in seven of his past eight games against
Green Bay, including four straight at Lambeau Field.

3. Vikings WR Percy Harvin (ankle) is listed as doubtful.

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**Udog** · 12-02-2012, 08:48 AM

NFL weather watch: Rainy in Buffalo, Oakland

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-6, 42.5)

Site: Ralph Wilson Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with a 100 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 18 mph.

New England at Miami (7.5, 51)

Site: Sun Life Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-70s with a 25 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the ENE at 14 mph.

Houston at Tennessee (6.5, 47)

Site: LP Field

Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-60s with a 25 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the south at 12 mph.

Cleveland at Oakland (1, 37.5)

Site: O.co Coliseum

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 100 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 18 mph.

**Udog** · 12-02-2012, 11:44 AM

Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: +2.5, Move: +4

The Chiefs will be playing with heavy hearts after the suicide of LB Jovan Belcher and this game was taken off the board when news broke of the tragedy early Saturday morning. Since the game re-opened, money has been pouring in on the Panthers.

“It's tough to predict how someone will react to an unthinkable tragedy such as this,” Perry told Covers. “My opinion is that most of the Kansas City players will be more focused than usual as a result.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos – Open: -7, Move: -9.5

Offshores have the Broncos as high as 9.5-point favorites against the best cover team in the league heading into action on Sunday.

“Tampa Bay has been a bettor’s dream this season, but Peyton Manning is one of the top players that bettors love to back,” Perry notes. "Around 62 percent of the money is on the spread and behind the Broncos."

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans – Open: +4.5, Move: +6.5

The Texans opened as low as 4-point faves at some books, but public money has been driving this spread up to nearly a touchdown.

“The Texans are the second-most popular early play,” according to Perry. "Over 80 percent of the cash is on the spread, trailing only Carolina (91%)."

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets – Open: -4, Move: -6

It’s been a long time since bettors have had any faith in Rex Ryan’s Jets, but the money is pouring in on them at home against a Cardinals squad that has dropped seven straight games.

“We haven’t been this long on the Jets since their Week 1 game at Miami when New York was -1 and won 23-20,” says Perry. “Over 70 percent of the action is on the Jets.”

**Udog** · 12-02-2012, 10:18 PM

NFL

Monday, December 3

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Monday Night Football: Giants at Redskins
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New York Giants at Washington Redskins (2.5, 50)

With a pair of victories over division rivals, the Washington Redskins kept alive their slim hopes for a trip to the playoffs. They try for a third straight win over an NFC East rival on Monday night when they host the division-leading New York Giants. Washington appeared to be far out of the playoff picture after a string of three straight losses that began with a 27-23 road setback against the Giants in Week 7. But after their bye week, the Redskins manhandled the Philadelphia Eagles and jumped out to a huge lead in Dallas on Thanksgiving before holding on for a 38-31 triumph over the Cowboys. With star rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III at the helm, Washington is just one game behind Seattle for the second wild card in the conference but also has Tampa Bay and Minnesota in its way.

New York avoided a major downward spiral last Sunday night, when it posted a convincing 38-10 home victory over the surging Green Bay Packers. Prior to the win, the Giants suffered losses at home to Pittsburgh and in Cincinnati. New York, which is two games ahead of both Washington and Dallas in the division, ranks fourth in the NFC but trails San Francisco by 1 1/2 games for second place and a first-round bye in the playoffs.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Giants -2.5, O/U 50

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with partly cloudy conditions. Winds will blow out of the SSE at 4 mph.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (7-4): Quarterback Eli Manning owns a 7-2 record in his last nine starts against Washington. In his only previous Monday night meeting with the Redskins on Dec. 21, 2009, Manning threw three touchdown passes without an interception. Not everything that came out of Sunday's win over the Packers was good as running back Andre Brown suffered a broken leg and is out for the remainder of the season. David Wilson could see more playing time in place of Brown, who is second in the NFC with eight rushing touchdowns.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (5-6): Griffin performed well in his first career game against the Giants, completing 20 of 28 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns while running for 89 yards on nine carries. Griffin was even better in his next two divisional games as he threw four TD passes against both the Eagles and Cowboys, becoming the first rookie in league history to do have at least four scoring strikes in consecutive games. Running back Alfred Morris is second among rookies with 982 yards. Washington is allowing an average of 301.4 passing yards, the second-worst mark in the NFL.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games on grass.
* Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC East foes.
* Under is 6-1 in Giants’ last seven road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Redskins’ last five games overall.
* Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Giants have won 10 of the last 13 meetings between the teams but were swept in the season series in 2011.

2. Washington is second in the league with an average of 162.9 rushing yards.

3. With three TD passes against Green Bay, Manning became the first Giant with 200 career scoring tosses.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thursday, November 29 - Monday, December 3)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thursday, November 29 - Monday, December 3)

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