NFL Week 12

[roccodean]

2* NYG -2.5 over GB
Getting this in early
analysis to follow

[ravenmaniac]

Bol. I was thinking the same thing

[roccodean]

2* SD over Balt (possible upgrade)

[CheCheBoFumbe]

GL Rocco

[roccodean]

May also add KC, Buf, TB

2* NYG -2.5 over GB (possible upgrade)
Posted on Tuesday-the line is 2.5 now
2* at -3 or better
I was on the Bengals 2 weeks ago when they beat the NY...now give me the G men! The Giants are off a 31-13 shellacking and had 2 weeks to think about it (bye last week). On the other hand, the Packers are off 5 straight up wins (and 4/5 covers) and riding high...until Sunday night. It's funny how the media's memory is 2 weeks max. Atfter GB struggled in the early weeks they were asking "is Green Bay done". Now that they have been playing better everybody forgets this. You have to look at the body of work. GB has no run game (25th) and are below average defensively (15th vs the run and 18th vs the pass). The Giants will be able to exploit this with the 8th best rushing offense (YPR) and 14th passing offense (YPPA). There is a 58-25 ATS trend favoring the G Men based on their loss before a bye.

2* SD over Balt (possible upgrade)
Posted on Tuesday-the public will be betting Balt so I would wait to get the best line
The public is going to be wondering why an 8-2 team (Balt) is only a slight favorite vs a 4-6 team. Because the record only tells you a small part of how good/bad a team is. These teams stats are nearly identical. SD is 22nd in rushing offense and 16th in passing offense, while Balt is 16th and 14th. Defensively SD can stop the run (6th) and pass (14th). The once dominant Baltimore D is now average. This is a HORRIBLE schedule spot for the Ravens. It is their 4th road game in their last 5 and they are in a Steelers sandwich. The Ravens are +12 in turnover diff also, a trend that is unlikely to continue. So, you've got a home dog that is equally good (if not slightly better) against a team in a terrible schedule spot...gimme the Bolts!

[3rdmckid]

thanks for the hard work rocco !!

[ravenmaniac]

Gl Rocco. I am not betting the game but here is stat you didn't mention which I think says a lot as to why the Ravens are 8-2 even though their defensive stats are not up to their usual standards. Baltimore is number 1 in red zone defense. They have a bend but don't break defense. They give up a lot of yards but once inside the 20 they hold teams to FGs rather than TDs. In addition their offense is number 7 in red zone offense. Once they are inside the 20 they score more TDs than FGs. Another reason why Baltimore is favored is S.D. is a turnover machine.

[roccodean]

Thank Raven. You are right, whenever a teams record is better/worse than their record it is either red zone off/def &/or 3rd down off/def. SD is only -3 in TO's this year. Good luck!

[roccodean]

May add Buf,TB
KC qualifies for multiple great trends including a 46-16 ATS trend if you have the man parts to bet.
Also, DD home dogs are 62-31-2 ATS since 1995

[flashypants]

gl pal

[Kaptain]

gl today

[Tnbreakers]

Gl!

[jt4545]

Good luck today

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco

[roccodean]

thanks all

sorry late but SD and NYG both 2*