NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Tuesday, November 20 - Saturday, November 24)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 24

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Michigan at Ohio State: What bettors need to know
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Michigan at Ohio State (-4, 55.5)

Ohio State is not eligible for the postseason this year. That means no Big Ten championship game and no BCS bowl at the end for a team that has yet to take a loss. The annual showdown with Michigan on Saturday in Columbus is big enough with the postseason still on the table, but this year the 20th-ranked Wolverines represent the Super Bowl for Ohio State. Michigan snapped a seven-game losing streak in the series last season. The Buckeyes are one of two teams in the FBS entering the weekend undefeated (along with Notre Dame) and will challenge a stout Wolverines defense with Braxton Miller and the spread offense. Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer is getting his first taste of the rivalry but is well aware of the tradition and the pressure to win this game. Michigan coach Brady Hoke earned the respect and adoration of the Wolverines faithful by snapping the seven-game losing streak and will be trying to guide his team to its first win in the Horseshoe since 2000.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE: Ohio State -4, 55.5 O/U.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the WNW at 13 mph.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (8-3, 6-1 Big Ten): The Wolverines will know by the time they take the field if they have a shot at the Big Ten championship game and the BCS bowl that goes to the winner. Currently tied with Nebraska atop the Legends Division, Michigan needs the Cornhuskers to lose at Iowa on Friday. Either way, the Wolverines will throw a new-look offense at the Buckeyes. Quarterback Devin Gardner took over when Denard Robinson went down with nerve damage in his throwing elbow and stayed at QB when Robinson returned last week. With Robinson serving as wide receiver, running back and option quarterback, Michigan rolled up 513 total yards in a 42-17 victory. Gardner threw for three touchdowns and rushed for three more. Hoke has suggested that Robinson may be able to throw some passes this week, though Gardner will likely start under center.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (11-0, 7-0): If it weren’t for the sanctions stemming from the end of Jim Tressel’s tenure, Meyer’s team would be fighting Notre Dame for the top spot in the BCS standings this week. Meyer has been quick to dismiss the what-ifs and focus on this week. Michigan has not faced a quarterback as dynamic as the Buckeye’s Miller, who has guided his team to the top scoring offense in the Big Ten at 38.2 points. Miller is a lot like Robinson at Michigan but has taken a big step forward this season and enters the final game with 1,850 passing yards and 1,214 yards on the ground. He will be looking to bounce back after a sub-par performance in last week’s 21-14 overtime victory at Wisconsin. Carlos Hyde scored the overtime winner in that game as Miller was held out of the end zone for the first time this season.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 5-0 in Wolverines’ last five November games.
* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings at Ohio State.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Ohio State has not finished undefeated since the 2002 squad won the National Championship.

2. Robinson totaled 337 yards of offense and five touchdowns in leading the Wolverines to a 40-34 victory in last season’s meeting.

3. Robinson needs one passing touchdown to become the first player in Big Ten history to post 50 passing TDs and 40 rushing TDs in his career.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 24

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Oregon at Oregon State: What bettors need to know
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Oregon at Oregon State (9.5, 66)

The 116th edition of the Civil War was on track to represent a chance for No. 4 Oregon to complete a perfect season. Now the Ducks might not even be playing in the Pac-12 title contest even if they beat No. 17 Oregon State in Corvallis on Saturday. Oregon’s perfect season was derailed in overtime by Stanford on Nov. 17 and now the Ducks have to beat Oregon State and have UCLA knock out Stanford to reach the conference championship game. The Beavers are 5-0 at home and are frothing to end Oregon’s four-game winning streak in the series. Oregon State would finish in a three-way for the North Division crown if it beats Oregon and Stanford loses, but the Cardinal claim the division title in that scenario since they defeated both Oregon schools.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network.

LINE: Oregon -9.5, 66 O/U.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s with an 85 percent chance of showers. Winds will be calm.

ABOUT OREGON (10-1, 7-1 Pac-12): The Ducks have won 15 consecutive road games, the longest active streak in the nation. Senior running back Kenjon Barner has rushed for 1,426 yards, but has failed to hit the century mark in either of the last two games. He had 66 yards against Stanford, one week after having only 65 against California. Redshirt freshman quarterback Marcus Mariota is completing 69.8 percent of his passes and has thrown 29 touchdown passes and only six interceptions. Senior linebacker Michael Clay has a team-best 82 tackles and had a staggering 20 against Stanford. The Ducks have intercepted 20 passes and returned four for touchdowns.

ABOUT OREGON STATE (8-2, 6-2): The Beavers have a stout defense that ranks second in the Pac-12 in scoring defense (18.6) and has intercepted 17 passes. Senior cornerback Jordan Poyer has six picks and 12 over his standout career. Oregon State defense is allowing opponents to convert only 28.9 percent of third-down opportunities. A year ago, Beavers’ opponents converted 47.4 percent. Sophomore quarterback Sean Mannion passed for 325 yards and matched a career-best with four touchdowns passes in a 62-14 dismantling of California. Sophomore Terron Ward rushed for 128 yards and two touchdowns against the Golden Bears.

TRENDS:

* Ducks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Beavers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Over is 4-1 in Ducks’ last five road games.
* Over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Oregon leads the series 59-46-10. Oregon State’s most-recent victory was a 38-31 double-overtime win in 2007.

2. The Beavers have turned the football over only 14 times, the fewest in the Pac-12.

3. The Ducks had scored 42 points or more in 13 straight games – an NCAA record – before tallying just 14 in the loss to Stanford.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 24

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Notre Dame at USC: What bettors need to know
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Notre Dame at USC (5, 45.5)

It all comes down to Saturday for No. 1 Notre Dame. Things broke right for the Fighting Irish last weekend, when No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Kansas State both fell, allowing Notre Dame to slip right into the top spot in the BCS standings. The only thing standing in the way now is rival Southern California. The Fighting Irish will visit the Trojans with a National Championship shot on the line Saturday night. Notre Dame enjoyed an easy victory over Wake Forest on Senior Day last week as the rest of the top three was falling apart around the country. USC began the season thinking this game would be their final stop before a shot at the BCS title, but things have not quite gone according to plan. The Trojans have dropped three of their last four games to fall out of BCS consideration but can head into the bowl season with smiles on their faces by keeping the rival Irish out of the title game. They will have to accomplish that with a first-time starter at quarterback, however, as redshirt freshman Max Wittek is taking the place of injured starter Matt Barkley.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE: Notre Dame -5, 45.5 O/U.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with clear skies. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (11-0): The Irish have been tested plenty of times in their first 11 games and have won by a touchdown or less five times thanks to a defense that has allowed an FBS-low 10.1 points. That unit could send linebacker Manti Te’o to the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York and even win him the award with a big performance Saturday. Notre Dame has allowed only eight touchdowns this season - tops in the country. But the most impressive thing about the Irish over the past few games has been the performance of quarterback Everett Golson. The redshirt freshman has thrown for seven touchdowns and two picks in the last three games and exploded for a season-high 346 yards and three touchdowns in the 38-0 victory over Wake Forest last Saturday.

ABOUT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (7-4): The Trojans have the offensive firepower to attack Notre Dame’s relative weaknesses in the defensive backfield. Wide receivers Marqise Lee and Robert Woods are arguably the top tandem in the nation and will make the transition to starting easier for Wittek. Barkley went down in the second half of last week’s 38-28 loss to rival UCLA with a shoulder injury and Wittek completed all three of his attempts for 40 yards. The precocious freshman was confident during an ESPN radio interview this week, saying “I’m gonna go out there, I’m gonna play within myself, within the system, and we’re gonna win this ballgame.” Wittek might have trouble running up the score against Te’o and company and could use some help from his own defense, which has been shredded for 46.3 points in the last three losses.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Pac-12 foes.
* Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Trojans’ last seven home games.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Notre Dame’s last nine road games.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Notre Dame is ranked No. 1 for the first time since 1993. The Irish have lost at USC as the No. 1 team twice before - in 1938 and 1965.

2. USC has taken nine of the last 10 meetings, with the lone setback coming in 2010, when Barkley missed the game because of injury.

3. Lee was named one of three finalists for the Biletnikoff Award honoring the nation’s top receiver


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Saturday, November 24, 2012

First Post

Michigan at Ohio State, 12:00 ET
Michigan: 3-12 ATS off BB games scoring 37+ points
Ohio State: 33-17 ATS at home off a road win

(TC) Vanderbilt at Wake Forest, 3:30 ET
Vanderbilt: 6-18 ATS off a home win by 17+ points
Wake Forest: 9-2 ATS off a SU loss

Connecticut at Louisville, 12:00 ET
Connecticut: 19-6 ATS after losing 3 of their last 4 games
Louisville: 2-10 ATS at home with a total of 45.5 to 49 points

Georgia Tech at Georgia, 12:00 ET
Georgia Tech: 6-0 Over off a home game
Georgia: 20-8 ATS vs. ACC opponents

(TC) Maryland at North Carolina, 3:00 ET
Maryland: 22-9 ATS off a conference loss by 21+ points
North Carolina: 0-6 ATS off a conference win

Virginia at Virginia Tech, 12:00 ET
Virginia: 1-8 ATS off an ATS loss
Virginia Tech: 39-22 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

(TC) Michigan State at Minnesota, 3:30 ET
Michigan State: 1-8 ATS as a favorite
Minnesota: 8-1 Under after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

(TC) Miami FL at Duke, 12:30 ET
Miami FL: 7-0 ATS vs. conference opponents
Duke: 7-1 Over as an underdog

Illinois at Northwestern, 12:00 ET
Illinois: 13-28 ATS off BB games scoring 17 points or less
Northwestern: 6-0 ATS in home games

(TC) Boston College at NC State, 3:00 ET
Boston College: 6-0 Under as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
NC State: 7-0 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games

(TC)Kentucky at Tennessee, 12:20 ET
Kentucky: 1-7 ATS as an underdog
Tennessee: 12-3 ATS off 3+ ATS losses

(TC) Wisconsin at Penn State, 3:30 ET
Wisconsin: 12-4 Over vs. conference opponents
Penn State: 5-1 ATS as a favorite

Rutgers at Pittsburgh, 12:00 ET
Rutgers: 11-3 ATS off an ATS win
Pittsburgh: 11-24 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards

Indiana at Purdue, 12:00 ET
Indiana: 9-22 ATS after gaining 475+ total yards
Purdue: 9-2 Over in home games

Texas State at Texas San Antonio, 2:00 ET
Texas State: 6-1 Under off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games
Texas SA: 3-0 ATS after allowing 325+ passing yards

Idaho at Utah State, 3:00 ET
Idaho: 2-9 ATS vs. conference opponents
Utah State: 10-0-1 ATS in all games this season

San Diego State at Wyoming, 3:30 ET
San Diego State: 13-26 ATS off BB wins
Wyoming: 28-13 ATS after gaining 325+ passing yards

(TC) Texas Tech at Baylor, 2:30 ET
Texas Tech: 28-13 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points
Baylor: 7-0 Over off a win by 21+ points

Auburn at Alabama, 3:30 ET
Auburn: 0-7 ATS off an ATS win
Alabama: 7-0 ATS at home with a total of 42.5 to 49 points


(TC) = Time Change

[Udog]

College football betting weather watch: Week 13

Michigan at Ohio State (-4, 53.5)

Site: Ohio Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark with a slight chance of snow. Winds will blow out of the WNW at 11 mph.

Virginia at Virginia Tech (-10, 49)

Site: Lane Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark and clear skies. Winds will blow out of the NW at 15 mph.

Rutgers at Pittsburgh (-1.5, 43.5)

Site: Heinz Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark with a slight chance of snow. Winds will blow out of the west at 14 mph.

Oregon at Oregon State (9.5, 66)

Site: Reser Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 100 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the west at 3 mph.

Wisconsin at Penn State (-2, 45.5)

Site: Beaver Stadium

Forecasts are projecting temperatures around the freezing mark and a 40 percent chance of a rain/snow mix. Winds will blow out of the WNW at 16 mph.

San Diego State at Wyoming (7, 55.5)

Site: Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with sunny skies. But winds will gust out of the WSW at 20 mph.

UNLV at Hawaii (3, 54)

Site: Aloha Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with a 40 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the ENE at 7 mph.