NFL week 11 with4* Play

[roccodean]

Analysis and more plays to follow
Based on 1-5*

4* Ariz +10 over Atl

[10DimeBry]

Interesting pick. Good spot for zona. Atl couldn't cover the big # vs Oakland so zona seems like a good choice here. Gl

[Spark]

Good luck roc

[roccodean]

thanks guys...spark Ill have my write up soon...Ill tell you why I love them so much.

[jmarty6969]

gl rocco

[roccodean]

just finished running all my trends and Ariz might be a 5*...will update if officialy

[jcindaville]

Bol Rocco

[vinnyvegas]

GL Buddy...Falcons have trouble w/ big lines to cover

[roccodean]

4* Arizona +10 over Atlanta
I absolutely love Arizona here! As you can tell I am not high on Atlanta, because they are simply not that good. They are an abysmal 30th in YPR allowed and 26th in YPPA. Their strength is their passing game (5th, 7.9 YPPA), but Arizona''s pass D is solid (6.9 YPPA, 10th). There is no way Atlanta should be a double digit favorite. When the public sees a good team lose they think they will "bounce back", hence the line adjustment here. But, I have a 122-63 ATS stat that defies this bounce back logic. Arizona is off a bye. I like backing bad teams that are off a bye, especially if they went into the bye bad (Ariz lost by 14 to GB). This sets them up for a great 59-31 ATS trend (this was also on the Rams last week-winner). Because of their recent poor play they qualify for a 22-8 ATS trend (also applied to Cinci last week-winner). I think Arizona will be very competitive in this game and will easily cover. My calculated line on this is Atl -7. Give me the dog with a big 4* play!

2* Oakland over New Orleans
This line may climb by gametime when the public starts taking N.O.
New Orleans has the worst D I have seen since I have been running my numbers! They allow 5.1 YPR (second to last) and 8.6 YPPA (last). I can throw for 400 yards on them. They are still a publicly backed team because the public loves betting offense, thats why this line is high. Oakland will be able to move the ball effectively against them and cover this number at home. Because of their blowout loss last week Oakland qualifies for many trends including on that is 110-51 ATS. My calculated line is NO -2. I like Oakland and think they can get the win and would put a few bucks on the money line.

[Mark Richt]

4* Arizona +10 over Atlanta
I absolutely love Arizona here! As you can tell I am not high on Atlanta, because they are simply not that good. They are an abysmal 30th in YPR allowed and 26th in YPPA. Their strength is their passing game (5th, 7.9 YPPA), but Arizona''s pass D is solid (6.9 YPPA, 10th). There is no way Atlanta should be a double digit favorite. When the public sees a good team lose they think they will "bounce back", hence the line adjustment here. But, I have a 122-63 ATS stat that defies this bounce back logic. Arizona is off a bye. I like backing bad teams that are off a bye, especially if they went into the bye bad (Ariz lost by 14 to GB). This sets them up for a great 59-31 ATS trend (this was also on the Rams last week-winner). Because of their recent poor play they qualify for a 22-8 ATS trend (also applied to Cinci last week-winner). I think Arizona will be very competitive in this game and will easily cover. My calculated line on this is Atl -7. Give me the dog with a big 4* play!

2* Oakland over New Orleans
This line may climb by gametime when the public starts taking N.O.
New Orleans has the worst D I have seen since I have been running my numbers! They allow 5.1 YPR (second to last) and 8.6 YPPA (last). I can throw for 400 yards on them. They are still a publicly backed team because the public loves betting offense, thats why this line is high. Oakland will be able to move the ball effectively against them and cover this number at home. Because of their blowout loss last week Oakland qualifies for many trends including on that is 110-51 ATS. My calculated line is NO -2. I like Oakland and think they can get the win and would put a few bucks on the money line.

You certainly have provided some good insight as to why Zona might cover. I agree that is a lot of points. But to say that "Atlanta simply is not good" is a bit of a stretch. Tough to call a one loss team in the NFL "simply not a good team". That is a bit egregious in nature. Not trying to bust your balls but wanted to point out and question how you could make a comment like that about a one-loss team. Maybe they are over rated (subject to opinion) but they are a good team at worst. My two cents...thanks for the play and write up.

[roccodean]

They are a solid (not great) team, but they are simply over rated.

[LeRoy]

GL Rocco Lets hit both plays tomorrow

[DenJamTuck]

LOL...Roc how many cold ones to say I love Arizona. I love it brotha, I'm on Ari and Oaktown with ya...Les do dis

[mavskidd02]

You certainly have provided some good insight as to why Zona might cover. I agree that is a lot of points. But to say that "Atlanta simply is not good" is a bit of a stretch. Tough to call a one loss team in the NFL "simply not a good team". That is a bit egregious in nature. Not trying to bust your balls but wanted to point out and question how you could make a comment like that about a one-loss team. Maybe they are over rated (subject to opinion) but they are a good team at worst. My two cents...thanks for the play and write up.

"not that good" is different than "not good." It's a comparative term.

"The 86 Mets are the greatest team of all-time!"
"They're not that good...."

A subjective term, that as you stated yourself is open to opinion. Just my two cents.

GL Rocco, I'm on 'em as always.

[roccodean]

1* Cleveland +7.5 over Dallas
Espn: News flash...Dallas is not that good and Cleveland is not that bad. Dallas got a fake win last week with 3 special teams/defensive TD's and now they are over a TD fav? On the other hand cleveland has been playing competitive ball and is off a bye. They qualify for the same 59-31 ATS trend as the Cards. They also qualify for an 80-39 ATS trend playing on bad teams off a bye. Cleveland's D is solid (17th in YPR allowed and 10th in YPPA), while Dallas' run game is terrible (30th in YPR with 3.6) and pass game is average. Cleveland will be able to run the ball effectively vs a dallas D that allows 4.1 YPR. My number is Dal -6. Give me the Brownies with the points.
.
1* Tease Carolina +7.5/SF -0.5
CAR
TB has been riding high...let's go against them! Their pass D is horrible (30th in NFL) and will be eaten up by Carolinas good pass o (4th in YPPA). This is a bad schedule position for TB (3rd out of 4th road) and a great schedule spot for carolina (2nd consec home dog).
SF
I wish both Smith and Cutler were playing bc this would be an easy SF play. Smith is expected to play, but the line is to high now that Cutler is out, but I don't see SF losing SU. Chicago is a solid team, but has been winning on defense/special teams which is unlikely to continue. I don't see Chi scoring against the Niners stout D (4th vs run and pass) esp with Campbell at the helm. Conversely, the Bears are 17th vs the run and SF averages over 5 YPR (1st in league). Harbaugh will be preaching to the team as if the lost last week (they tied) and they will be fully focused.

Also, if we hit Car, and they announce that Smith not playing will be a good middle oppor on Chi.