NFL Week 10

[roccodean]

based on 1-5*
analysis to follow

2* Jax over Indy
This may go to 3.5 by gametime so I would wait

2* Cin over NYG (probable upgrade to 3*)
This is +4 when posted, it may not go higher but I would wait

3* Carolina +4 over Denver (possible 4* upgrade)
I would get this in because it may drop to 3 by game time

2* St. Louis +11 over SF
Get this in ASAP, it will be 10 by gametime

[jmarty6969]

gl rocco

[Esquire Man]

Wow- Good luck with these picks Rocco

[jt4545]

Good luck roccodean

[roccodean]

2* Jax +3.5
I look at Indy’s stats and I wonder how they have a winning record…it’s because they have played the 3rd easiest schedule in the league thus far. Don’t believe the hype! Besides Indy being 18th in YPPA and Jax being last in YPPA, these teams are very similar. Another difference is Indy’s run D that is allowing 4.8 YPR (29th in NFL) ! Jax is going to pound the ball and keep this one low scoring and close. Indy is coming off a huge dog win and after the game Chuck Pagano gave a winning emotional speech. Now, they travel to one of the worst teams in the league on a very short week…this is a huge letdown spot for them. Don’t worry that Jax lost 5 games in a row. In fact, this actually gives them great line value and qualifies them for a 85-40 ATS trend. Jax already beat Indy and you may hear the genius sportscasters say how hard it is to beat a team twice. Now you can tell them that teams at .500 or better (Indy) are just 40% ATS (over 190+ games) with same season revenge against a team with a win percentage of less than .600 (Jax). Jax applies to another great long term trend (210-135 ATS) that plays against Indy based on their upset win last week. Give me Jax...similar team, over a FG division home dog, huge schedule and trend advantage! I think Jax will win straight up and would put a small wager on the money line also (10-20% of your line bet).

[roccodean]

3* Cin over NYG
Hard to say where this line will go, as of Sat night 80%+ of bets are on NYG but I know the sharps will be on Cin
Cinci is primed for a win here. They are playing their 3rd consecutive home game and lost their first 2. On the other hand, the Giants are off a hard fought Pitt game. Since 2006 teams that are favored or a dog of 3 or less are 18-44-1 ATS. As I stated last week the Giants D isn't good statistically, but they are stopping teams in the red zone. This bend but don't break D won't last. They are 28th vs the run and 30th vs the pass! Cinci is 7th in YPPA and will be able to exploit this. I think that the Bengals have a great chance for a win and I would put a couple bucks on the money line.

3* Carolina +4 over Denver
As of Sat night 80%+ of the bets are on Denver, but the sharps will be on Carolina-the public will bet Denver Sunday AM so it is hard to say where this settles
Denver is in a terrible schedule spot here. They are traveling from the west to east coast on back to back weeks as road favs. Also, in the past 5 games this is their 4th road game. To make matters worse, they are playing an NFC team this week (the least important game on the schedule) and fact SD (division opponent) next week. Carolina is not has bad as their record indicates. They have lost some close games and are very close to at least being .500 or having a winning record. They got a W last week in Washington (and a BWP win) and I think they get on a roll here. Carolina's offense is very good (9th in rushing offense and 1st in YPPA). Their D is average (15th vs the run and 16th vs the pass). Denver's stats are very good, but the schedule spot is too much to overcome. I also think Carolina has a great shot at the straight up win and would put a few bills on the money line.

2* St. Louis +12.5 over SF
Get this in ASAP, I predict it will drop by gametime
The Rams fall on the most trends that I can recall over the last 2 years and they are in a great schedule spot. Don't be afraid to bet double digit dogs in the NFL, in fact they are 54% ATS over the last 20 years. Due to their blowout loss the Rams qualify for a 112-68 ATS trend and a 81-31 ATS trend. Because of their dog loss and now being a big dog again they fall for a 44-26 ATS trend. Because they are coming off a loss and a bye they qualify for a ATS trend. Statistically, th-e Niners are obviously better (hence the double digit spread), but Seattle is a solid team. They are 13 in YPR and YPPA on the offensive side of the ball. -Defensively, they are 14th versus the pass and rush. The Niners D has been playing lights out, but this usually gives the opponent value and SF applies to a negative 108-151 trend. Love the Rams here.