NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Tuesday, November 6 - Saturday, November 10)

[Udog]

Where the action is: NCAAF Week 11 line moves

College football bettors are in the home stretch of the schedule, keeping the Week 11 odds on the move throughout the week. We talk to Jay Rood, sportsbook director at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest adjustments heading into Saturday’s action.

Miami Hurricanes at Virginia Cavaliers – Open: +2.5, Move: -1

The Cavaliers opened as 2.5-point home dogs at some online markets and were quickly bet up to 1-point favorites following their upset win over North Carolina State last week. Rood opened Virginia at -1 but has taken nothing but Miami money since. The Hurricanes have improved each week and took down Virginia Tech as 1-point underdogs last week – they’re fifth ATS victory in the past six games.

“It looks like this one could close at a pick or even Miami -1,” Rood told Covers.

Wisconsin Badgers at Indiana Hoosiers – Open: +5.5, Move: +7.5

Money on the Badgers has pushed this spread past the key number at most books. MGM opened at a touchdown and took instant action on Wisconsin, moving the spread to 7.5 before settling back at the original stand. The Hoosiers are in the thick of the Big Ten race but need wins in their final three games to shock the conference, starting with a home victory over the Badgers.

“Indiana has been better lately but they seem to get throttled in games in which they should get throttled,” says Rood. “That said, Wisconsin hasn’t really been itself and Indiana could be better at home.”

Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona Wildcats – Open: -31, Move: -28.5

A few sharp plays were enough to move this Pac-12 spread off its opener. However, Rood sees Arizona money on the way and expects the line to go back up closer to the 1:30 p.m. ET start time, which is 11 a.m. MT. Arizona starting QB Matt Scott was ruled doubtful by the team Friday due to a concussion and junior B.J. Denker is expected to start in his place.

“I don’t think anyone really has faith in Colorado,” says Rood. “I think the sharps are taking what they saw as an overinflated power rating. We’ll see Arizona money come game day.”

Penn State Nittany Lions at Nebraska Cornhuskers – Open: -6.5, Move: -9

This Big Ten battle has moved past a touchdown and is sitting as high as -9 at some online books. Rood says this line move wasn’t forced by one or two big sharp plays but rather the accumulation of money on the Huskers.

“If we go as high as -9, I expect some buyback,” he says. “Penn State has been backed well this season despite what happened there.”

Rood also points out that a lot of wagers are coming in on the under for this game, driving the number down from as high as 54 to 51 points. The forecast in Lincoln is calling for strong winds, blowing south at 22 mph and temperatures in the low 20s.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers - Open: -14, Move: -16

After such a crushing loss to Alabama last week, bettors are keeping their space when it comes to LSU this Saturday. Rood says there has been very little action on this SEC clash, outside of a bit of parlay money on the Tigers.

“No one’s really tipping their hand for this one,” Rood says of the betting patterns. “Chances are we’ll need Mississippi State come Saturday.”

Utah Utes at Washington Huskies – Open: -1, Move: +1.5

This Pac-12 spread has hopped the fence after opening with Washington as a slight home fave at some markets. The MGM Mirage is dealing Utah -1 and sharps have been happy to give the one point.

With this 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff standing as one of the last games on the Week 11 board, Rood says a lot more action will come in on this game later Saturday.

“This one is going to be an issue for us as far as the parlay cards are concerned,” he says. “A lot of late tickets will be running into this game.”

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Saturday's games
Top games
Missouri lost three of last four games, is 1-5 in first season of SEC play (4-5 overall), but they played tough defense last week, losing 14-7 (+17) at Florida; Tigers outgained Florida 335-276 but threw four picks, were -3 in turnovers. It was 4th time in five weeks Mizzou held opponent under 20 points. Tennessee has opposite problem; they lost four of last five games, with only win 55-48 over Troy of Sun Belt (TY, 722-718, Troy); Vols have only two takeaways in last four games, have allowed 23+ points in first half in each of last six games. Tennessee is 1-3 as favorite this year, 0-3 at home; Mizzou is 2-3 as underdog, 2-1 on road. SEC home favorites are 13-10 vs spread in conference play. All eight of Tennessee’s lined games went over total; six of last seven Mizzou games stayed under.

Stanford beat Oregon State last two years with Luck under center (38-0/38-13), but are still just 4-7 in last 11 games vs Beavers; Cardinal is +8 in turnovers in last four series games, winning 36-28/38-0 in last two played here. Favorites covered six of last nine series games (3-4 in last seven here). 7-1 Beavers won SU all four times they were underdog this year; they’re 14-6 vs spread in last 20 games as road dogs. Stanford was held to 13 points in both losses (@Washington/@ Notre Dame) this year; they’re 1-3 as home favorites this year, after having covered 14 of previous 21 games in that role. Cardinal hasn’t turned ball over in last two games, has +11 turnover ratio this season. Pac-12 home favorites are 12-9 vs spread in league play. Both teams are starting QB who began season as the backup.

LSU has to bounce back from huge effort/bigger disappointment in last-minute loss vs Alabama last week; they’ve won last 12 games vs Mississippi State, and covered 15 of last 18 (3-3 in last six). Bulldogs lost last seven visits here (2-5 vs spread), with four of last five by 18+ points; they’ve been crushed 38-7/38-13 last two weeks (trailed both games 24-0 at half), after starting season 7-0, so they need big effort here to avoid freefall (finish with Arkansas/Ole Miss). Tigers are 3-4 as favorites this year, 2-2 at home; their last three I-A wins were all by five or less points. Tigers have 20 takeaways in last seven games, are +8 in turnovers last three games. Seven of eight MSU games, four of last five LSU games stayed under the total. Big number for LSU to cover with possible post-Bama hangover, but they’re 12-7-1 vs spread in game following last 20 losses.

Fresno State covered eight of last nine games, four of five on road; only one of last five opponents scored more than 20 points. Bulldogs covered seven of last nine as a road favorite. Nevada’s defense has fallen apart, allowing 37-39-48 points in last three games; they’ve scored 31+ points in all three losses this year- since ’02 they’re 10-7 as home underdogs, 2-0 since ’10. In last four games, Nevada foes converted 32 of 59 on 3rd down. Wolf Pack won last four games with Fresno State by average score of 43-28; underdogs are 6-3-1 vs spread in last 10 series games, 4-1 in last five played here, with Bulldogs losing last two visits, 35-34/41-28. MWC home underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in league play. Four of last five Fresno games stayed under total; last three Nevada games went over.

Other Notes
-- Wyoming failed to cover last five tries as a road favorite.
-- Temple is 10-3-1 vs spread in last 14 games as a home underdog.
-- Memphis won/covered its last six games vs Tulane.
-- Underdogs covered seven of last nine Houston-Tulsa games.

-- Michigan covered just six of last 19 conference home games.
-- UL-Lafayette covered 14 of last 16 tries as a road underdog. Underdogs covered seven of last eight Virginia-Miami games.
-- Visiting team covered last six Texas-Iowa State games.

-- Rutgers covered six of its last seven games with Army.
-- Underdog covered five of last six Kansas-Texas Tech games.
-- Syracuse is 3-10 vs spread in last 13 Big East home games.
-- Road team is 11-5-1 vs spread in Ole Miss-Vanderbilt games.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 10

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Oregon State at Stanford: What bettors need to know
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Oregon State at Stanford (-5, 44.5)

Redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan will make his first start at quarterback when No. 15 Stanford hosts No. 12 Oregon State on Saturday in a critical Pac-12 North showdown. The teams are tied for second with 5-1 records, and both play first-place Oregon in the next two weeks. With Stanford and Oregon State ranked in the nation’s top 20 in scoring defense, the game figures to be a low-scoring contest. Stanford is hoping a change in quarterback improves its passing offense, which ranks ninth in the Pac-12. At Oregon State, quarterback Cody Vaz is set to make his second straight start in place of Sean Mannion, who lost the job after throwing four interceptions two weeks ago in a loss to Washington. The Beavers are 3-1 on the road this season, while Stanford has won seven straight home games and 18 of its last 19.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Stanford -5, O/U 44.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the NNW at 8 mph.

ABOUT OREGON STATE (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12): The Beavers are 7-1 for the first time since 2000, and are second in the Pac-12 in scoring defense behind Stanford. Senior cornerback Jordan Poyer, who leads the Beavers with five interceptions, is expected to play after missing last Saturday’s 36-26 victory over Arizona State with a knee injury. Terron Ward rushed for a career-high 146 yards last week, but rushing yards figure to be at a premium with Stanford ranked No. 1 and Oregon State No. 5 in the nation in run defense. Leading rusher Storm Woods (knee) is expected to return Saturday after sitting out last week.

ABOUT STANFORD (7-2, 5-1): The Cardinal are allowing only 16.6 points per game, and their defense has held the last three opponents to a combined minus-36 rushing yards. Stanford's pass defense ranks 10th in the conference, but safety Ed Reynolds recorded his third interception return for a touchdown during last week’s 48-0 victory over Colorado. Stepfan Taylor ranks fourth in the Pac-12 in rushing and is 53 yards away from reaching 1,000 yards for the third season in his career. Hogan gets the start at quarterback over Josh Nunes after passing for 184 yards and two touchdowns and running seven times for 48 yards against the Buffaloes.

TRENDS:

* Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Beavers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-0 in Stanford’s last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Stanford has won the last two games against Oregon State and three of the previous four, including last season’s 38-13 victory in Corvallis.

2. Oregon State is 51-3 since the start of the 2004 season when leading after three quarters.

3. Stanford leads the conference in turnover margin at plus-11.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 10

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Texas A&M at Alabama: What bettors need to know
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Texas A&M at Alabama (-13.5, 57)

Top-ranked Alabama dodged a major bullet in its national title defense last week, but the Crimson Tide face another tough test Saturday with No. 14 Texas A&M traveling to Tuscaloosa for the first time. The teams are meeting for the first time since 1988; Alabama has won three of four previous meetings. The Crimson Tide can clinch the SEC West title by beating the Aggies or by winning their Iron Bowl matchup with Auburn on Nov. 24. Texas A&M would have to beat Alabama and Missouri (Nov. 23) and also have the Crimson Tide lose to Auburn to make its way to the SEC Championship Game.

That's a far-fetched scenario for the Aggies, not least of all because it involves knocking off the Crimson Tide. Alabama won its first eight games by an average of 32.5 points before needing a late touchdown pass from A.J. McCarron to pull out a 21-17 win at LSU last week. The Crimson Tide's vaunted defense did give up big chunks of yardage on the ground and through the air against LSU, and it will face a major challenge against the Aggies and freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Alabama -13.5, O/U 57.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with clear skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 6 mph.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (7-2, 4-2 SEC): The Aggies have proven they can compete with the SEC's powers in their first year in the league - their only losses were 20-17 vs. Florida and 24-19 vs. LSU - but this is their last chance to knock off one of the conference's elite teams. Coach Kevin Sumlin's offense, led by Manziel, has averaged 559.6 total yards, which is on pace to break the SEC record of 534.4 set by Florida in 1995. The Aggies rank fifth in the nation in total offense and fourth in scoring (44.67).

ABOUT ALABAMA (9-0, 6-0): The Crimson Tide looked vulnerable for the first time this season against LSU, but McCarron and the offense were up to the task down the stretch. The defense likely will face its biggest test yet, but Alabama has the athletes to contain Manziel much like LSU did. Alabama also has a weapon in senior Jeremy Shelley, the only kicker in the nation who has not missed an extra point or field goal this season. Shelley is 43-for-43 on PATs and has made all nine of his field goal attempts.

TRENDS:

* Under is 3-0-1 in Crimson Tide’s last four home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Aggies’ last six vs. a team with a winning record.
* Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.
* Crimson Tide is 1-5 ATS in its last six November games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Alabama and Louisiana Tech are the only teams in the nation that have not thrown an interception this season. McCarron has thrown a school-record 289 passes without a pick.

2. Texas A&M has scored first in every game this season and 14 straight dating to 2011. The Aggies have scored on seven of nine opening drives this year.

3. Alabama has scored in 151 consecutive games, the longest streak in program history.


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[Udog]

College football betting weather watch: Week 11

Northwestern at Michigan (-8.5, 51.5)

Site: Michigan Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s under mostly cloudy skies. Winds will blow from the south at 12 mph.

Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (2.5, 62)

Site: Rynearson Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and overcast conditions. Winds will blow from the SSE at 13 mph.

Colorado at Arizona (-29, 66)

Site: Arizona Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 35 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow from the west at 14 mph.

Penn State at Nebraska (-8, 51)

Site: Memorial Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with a 25 chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be strong out of the south at 23 mph.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State (-10, 77)

Site: Boone Pickens Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the SSE at 27 mph.

Baylor at Oklahoma (-21.5, 76)

Site: Oklahoma Memorial Stadium

Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will gust out of the south at 26 mph.

Wyoming at New Mexico (2, 54)

Site: University Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s and a 40 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the west at 24 mph.

Air Force at San Diego State (-7.5, 58)

Site: Qualcomm Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 35 percent chance of showers. Winds will prevail out of the WNW at 13 mph.

San Jose State at New Mexico State (20.5, 55)

Site: Aggie Memorial Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-60s with a 20 percent chance of rain. Winds will be strong out of the SW at 25 mph.

Western Michigan at Buffalo (2.5, 54)

Site: UB Stadium

Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the low-50s with a 45 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the ESE at 9 mph.

UNLV at Colorado State (1, 53.5)

Site: Hughes Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures just below the freezing mark with a 60 percent chance of snow. Winds will be light out of the north.

Idaho at BYU (-39.5, 49)

Site: LaVell Edwards Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-20s with a 55 percent chance of snow. Winds will be light out of the WNW.

[Udog]

College cramming: Great betting tidbits for Week 11

-Navy has won five straight games (covering three), thanks to the play of freshman QB Keenan Reynolds. Reynolds took over five games ago and led a game-winning drive over Air Force to start the streak. The Middies were averaging 14.5 points per game before Reynolds took over and now scoring more than 28 per game.

-Kenny Miles will get the start at RB in South Carolina's first game back since the Marcus Lattimore knee injury two weeks ago. Miles is a senior with some starting experience. Stopping the run is one thing Arkansas does well though, with the fifth-best rush defense in the SEC with 121.4 yds against per game.

-The Gamecocks-Razorbacks total moved down two points to 52.5 this week, one of the bigger total moves on the board.

-Colorado-Arizona also moved down two points to 66. Wildcats QB Matt Scott was listed as doubtful in Friday's injury report, along with two other key starters, guard Chris Putton and safety Jourdon Grandon. Junior B.J. Denker will likely start at QB for Zona. His experience consists of 13 completions on 23 attempts, all this season. Arizona's last five games have played over.

-Two BYU football players were involved in an alleged assault at a restaurant Thursday night. Cougar senior safety Joe Sampson and sophomore linebacker Zac Stout were suspended by the team and have since withdrawn from BYU. Stuff like this is a big deal for a team like BYU, which has strick Honor Code. Sampson had 33 tackles, one for loss and 2 pass breakups this season, while Stout saw limited time. BYU is -39 hosting Idaho in snow and cold temps Saturday night.

- It is going to be coooold in Pullman when UCLA travels to face Washington State. Temperatures expected to be below freezing in the low 20s. Bruins favored by 16 with the total set at 60.5.

- Looking for possible reasons why 4-5 Syracuse is only a 2-point underdog against 9-0 Louisville this week? Here are three: 1. The Orange have the best total offense in the Big East. 2. Cuse ranks first in the conference in tackles for loss. 3. Louisville's defense is averaging 216 yards rushing against over its past three games.

- Miami has covered three straight games and its last four games have played under, thanks in part because it has started to clean up some serious defensive woes. But starting safety Deon Bush will be out and starting OLB Denzel Perryman is hobbling heading into Virginia this week. Those are two huge injuries for a defense just starting to find its feet. Sharps bet Miami from -1 to +1 this week.

- Mismatch: TCU has lost 24 turnovers this season. Only five teams in the nation have given up more, none of whom are any good. Kansas State leads the nation with only four turnovers lost this year. TCU is getting 7.5 points at home.

- Purdue is on a five-game losing streak (1-4 ATS). The Boilermakers have struggled on both sides of the ball but head coach Danny Hope says a major problem on offense has been third downs. Purdue is converting a measly 30.1 percent of third downs in Big Ten play. The good news? Iowa has the worst third-down efficiency defense of any conference foe Purdue has faced so far (40.6 percent). The Boilermakers are +4.5 at Iowa.

- USC has been fined and reprimanded by the Pac-12 for deflating footballs in Saturday’s 62-51 loss against Oregon. This report from USAToday’s Game On says one of the student managers was deflating game balls during the first half, apparently to give the Trojans an edge in gripping the ball. It’s a bizarre incident and not the first time USC has been up to some funny business this season, according to the report. Not sure what it means for bettors. Perhaps you shouldn’t be surprised if a few close calls don’t go USC’s way for the remainder of the season.

- The under is now a perfect 9-0 in Bowling Green games this season after a 26-14 win over Ohio, the only team with a perfect under record in the nation. Tennessee is the only perfect over team in the nation with an 8-0 record in its games.

- "What'd you say about my sideline demeanor?" Kind of funny audio clip with a caller who tries to rip Nebraska coach Bo Pelini on call-in show. Pelini handled it well. Perhaps lost in all of that is that Nebraska is the most penalized team in the Big Ten. Huskers are 7.5-point home faves vs. Penn State this week and 4-1 ATS as home faves this season.

- Texas A&M has scored first in every game this season and 14 straight dating to 2011. The Aggies have scored on seven of nine opening drives this year. Most books have props on who will score first in a game and though no odds are out as of Thursday, we're guessing A&M will most certainly be the underdog to score first against Alabama at Bryant-Denny.

- Iowa State has held all nine of its opponents under their season scoring average. The Cyclones will need to continue the trend this week in order to cover the 10.5 points against Texas, which averages 40.3 points per game.

- Michigan coach Brady Hoke said yesterday that Denard Robinson is now day-to-day for this week's game. The line moved from Michigan -11.5 to -10 for the Wolverines' game at home vs. Northwestern with the upgrade in his status.

- A Georgia win this week will secure the SEC East and a spot in the conference championship game when the Bulldogs travel to Auburn. Georgia is a 15.5-point road favorite after opening at 15. The Bulldogs have force nine turnovers in a pair of wins and covers the last two weeks.

- Look ahead alert: Rutgers -17 vs. Army (Cincy next game), La. Tech -20 at Texas State (Utah State next game), Oregon -28 at Cal (Stanford next game), Fresno State -2.5 at Nevada (Air Force next game, though bye next week).

- Air Force is tied atop the MWC at 4-1 and still has a solid shot at winning the conference. The Fly Boys were a 20-1 flier to win the conference before the season - impressive considering they’ve had 21 players make their first college start this year, second most in the nation. They are +9.5 at San Diego St. and are making a cross-country trek after a disappointing loss at Army last week.

- Maryland has more issues than National Geographic right now. Besides being down to their millionth-string QB, the Terps also lost their best defensive player last week – to yet another ACL injury. That’s why they’re +31.5 at Clemmy.

- Inspired or emotionally exhausted? That’s the call you have to make if you’re betting Rutgers this week. The Werblin Recreation Center on campus housed displaced victims of Hurricane Sandy and the Rutgers football team lent a hand while on bye. Rutgers is -17 hosting Army.

- With Denard Robinson day-to-day, Michigan will go to a hard-nosed, rushing-style offense if he doesn't play which is more suitable to coach Brady Hoke’s liking. It worked brilliantly last week against Minnesota when the Wolverines bowled over the Gophers for a convincing win and cover.

- There are four games with spreads of 30 points or more this week: Clemson -31 vs. Maryland; Arizona -30.5 vs. Colorado; Boise State is -30 (at the Orleans) at Hawaii; BYU is -38.5 vs. Idaho.

- There are four games with over/unders of more than 70 points this week: WVU at Oklahoma State 79; Baylor at Oklahoma 77; Marshall at UAB 74.5; La. Tech at Texas State 71.

- Utah looks like it may have turned a corner on the season. The Utes have won and covered their last two games and are 1.5-point faves at Washington this week. The Utes are the best kickoff return team in the nation, by the way, with 35.33 yards per return.

- Note: there are only 21 teams in the FBS averaging more than 25 yards on kickoff returns. No idea why more teams aren't taking a knee when the ball is kicked into the end zone on kickoffs.

- Northern Illinois is 6-0 SU and ATS against conference opponents this season. Keep in mind for next week when the Huskies face Toledo.

- UMass (0-9) and Southern Miss (0-9) are the only two teams left in the FBS without a straight up win this season. Both are 2-7 against the spread.

- When you’re talking about your QB situation and you’re saying things like, “I’ve spoken to all of them”, you know you’re in trouble. Cincy’s QB situation is so desperate, three guys are competing for the starting job this week in practice. Cincy is a 10.5-point fave at Temple, though Munchie Legaux threw six INTs and completed just 45 percent over his passes over the past three games.

- On that note - Temple's defense has completely fallen apart, allowing 127 points over the past three games. The Owls lost and failed to cover all three, while all three also played over.

- Nose tackle Mike Atkinson out for the season for Boise State with a torn ACL. This is one of those huge injuries for a team that won’t impact the pointspread, but shouldn’t be overlooked by bettors.

- That said, Hawaii coach Norm Chow said of Boise, whom his team plays this week: “We obviously have a tough time matching up physically with Boise State – that’s obvious. Just look at the tape.”

- Clemson is on a six-game streak where the Tigers have won and covered and have scored at least 37 points in each game.

- Minnesota is -3 at Illinois this week. The Gophers were 8.5–point road faves this year to open the season against a bad (but now improving) UNLV squad. The last time Minnesota was favored on the road before that was the season opener in 2009 (-7 at Syracuse). Oddly, the Gophers won both those games in overtime by three points.

- Oregon State is thriving with Cody Vaz under center. The Beavers are 3-0 straight up and ATS in games Vaz has started this season in place of the injured Sean Mannion, who is now out for the season. Vaz is better with ball security than Mannion and has seven touchdowns against just one interception. The Beavs are +4.5 at Stanford this week.

- Favorites went 5-0 ATS in the Pac-12 last week and also in the Big Ten - if you got Nebraska early in the week before the Huskers moved to +1. Faves are now 55-55 ATS in the Pac-12 this year and 51-56-1 in the Big Ten.