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**Udog** · 11-06-2012, 08:43 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Some of the more interesting football matchups this weekend........

-- Louisville @ Syracuse-- Cards are 9-0, but only 2.5-point favorites.

-- Texas A&M @ Alabama-- Game opened at 16, bet down to 13.5.

-- West Virginia @ Oklahoma State-- Total is 79. Too low.

-- Kansas State @ TCU-- How badly is Collin Klein hurt?

-- Denver @ Carolina-- John Fox comes back to coach against the team that stupidly let him walk two years ago. He should hug the Panthers' owner for giving him the chance to get a much better job.

-- Texans @ Bears-- Super Bowl preview?

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.........

13) Carl Cheffers’ officiating crew is by far the worst in the NFL- they had the Saints-Redskins game, when a side judge blew his whistle stopping a Carolina run, even though he never stepped on the right sideline. When the crew huddled up to decide what to do, they gave Carolina the TD, figuring he would’ve scored even if the Redskin defenders hadn’t stopped because of the whistle. Don’t think that’s what supposed to happen.

This same crew was also on the Chargers-Saints Sunday night game last month, when even NBC’s Cris Collinsworth was taken aback by some of the calls in the Saints’ favor late in the game.

12) As if New Jersey hasn’t had a cruddy enough time lately, a small earthquake hit the Garden State very late Sunday night. Only a 2.0, but still, enough already.

11) Its possible that Saints’ coach Sean Payton could be a free agent after this season, since the NFL voided the contract he signed last year. Imagine how Saints fans will react if Payton goes to…say, Dallas? there is no salary cap for coaches, and don’t think Jerry Jones doesn’t have his checkbook ready.

10) What Jones should be doing is hiring a real football guy to replace himself as GM. He’s awful, and it is obviously hurting the team. Great promoter, great businessman, amateur personnel guy.

9) Arizona Cardinals’ QB coach is John McNulty, who had been the WRs coach the last three years; he was replaced as WRs coach by Frank Reich, who was Jim Kelly’s backup QB in Buffalo, but who also engineered two of the biggest comeback wins in football history, once while in college at Maryland, the other in that memorable playoff game for Buffalo against the Houston Oilers.

Wouldn’t it make more sense if the former NFL QB was the QB coach, and McNulty stayed coaching WRs? Arizona desperately needs their QBs to play better; you’d think someone who has walked in their shoes might be more able to help Skelton/Kolb through difficult times.

8) Rumors have free agent slugger Josh Hamilton asking for seven years, $175M. Good luck there. Problems are this: Hamilton will be 32 in May. He has played more than 133 games twice in six big league seasons. He is a recovering drug addict who is one bad night away from a year’s suspension, and he also struggles in day games.

Hamilton says its because medication he takes do something to his eyes that make it tougher to play well in sunlight. Whatever. You’re giving him $22M a year? I don’t think so. Put it this way; the guy who has Hamilton in my 16-team keeper fantasy league tried very hard all season to unload him, and no one would bite.

7) Before last week, I had never heard of Marshall McDougall, but he was a AA prospect the A’s traded for reliever Ricardo Rincon at the 2002 trading deadline; it is the scene in Moneyball when Billy Beane tells the A’s cheapskate owner that he’ll pay for Rincon out of his own pocket, but when he sells him down the road, he gets to keep the profit.

Anyway, McDougall never gets mentioned in the movie, but I looked him up; he made the big leagues with Texas in 2005, going 3-18 in a brief big league stint. He is still playing ball; he hit .341 in 145 AB’s in Mexican League this past summer, a full decade after he was traded for Rincon. Would be a good story if he made it back to the big leagues someday.

6) Odd stat this week; NFL teams usually have about 10 possessions per game; Chargers only had six Thursday night, because they had two defensive TD’s, other possessions by both teams were sustained drives.

In Tennessee’s ugly 51-20 loss to the Bears, Titans had the ball eight times…..in the first quarter alone!!! I’ve never seen anything close to that before. Three turnovers and a blocked punt dug them a 28-2 hole they never came close to getting out of.

5) In their last five games, Denver has outsacked opponents 17-2, 10-0 in the last three.

4) 49ers were +28 in turnovers last year, an extraordinary number- they went 13-3; halfway thru this season, the Bears are +16. Any wonder why they’re 7-1?

3) Over the first seven weeks of the NFL season, there was only one game with no turnovers in it; in last two weeks, there have been five; either offenses are getting better, or defenses are wearing down.

2) I dislike politics a lot, but it is baffling to me how Mr Romney can run for President and not do a commercial where he, and only he, speaks to the American public on why he should be President.

Why would he not do this? Who is advising him? What makes them think we should vote for him?

Are they just counting on people voting against the incumbent? Seems like an odd way to run an operation that is playing for very high stakes.

1) That said, please get out and vote today, no matter who you vote for; it’s the least we can do as citizens, to exercise the freedoms people risk their lives to protect.

**Udog** · 11-06-2012, 08:44 AM

Pucking the trends: AHL betting news and notes

No NHL. No problem. Check out the latest betting news and notes from the young guns in the AHL.

Hot Team: Abbotsford Heat

With a hat-trick against the Toronto Marlies last Friday, Roman Horak raised his goal total to 10 this season and tied Sven Baertschi for the team lead with 11 points. Horak and Baertschi are two big reasons the Heat have made doubleheaders in Abbotsford the most feared road trip in the AHL.

The Heat returned from their first road trip of the season with one win in three games, but Abbotsford has won five of six home games this season, outscoring its opponents 23-9 in the process. The Heat’s one blemish is a 3-2 shootout loss to Chicago, which they avenged the next night with a 4-1 win.

Lake Erie and Oklahoma City are the next teams set to travel to Abbotsford and test the Heat’s home dominance.

Cold Team: Peoria Rivermen

After looking like they were getting on the right track with a couple wins, the Rivermen dropped four straight at home. Making matters worse, three of the four losses were shutouts, leaving Peoria with serious questions to answer about their offense.

T.J. Hensick and Derek Nesbitt are tied for the team lead with five points, while top prospect Jaden Schwartz has four. One reason for the lack of scoring is the Rivermen’s unproductive power-play, which has one goal in 36 opportunities -- a 2.8% conversion rate good for last in the league.

**Udog** · 11-06-2012, 08:44 AM

NFL odds: Week 10 opening line report

Football bettors can usually draw a line through the schedule to indicate the exact week when Super Bowl contenders pull away from the Super Bowl pretenders. And Week 10 may be that week.

There are three double-digit spreads on the board in early November, with Buffalo getting 11 points in New England, St. Louis set as an 11-point pup in San Francisco, and Pittsburgh handing lowly Kansas City 11.5 points on Monday Night Football.

“The midway part of the season is when the teams start separating,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club, told Covers. “The good teams win, the bad teams lose, and that’s how the public bets them.”

Those double-digit spreads prove a certain divide between the top and bottom of the league. New England, San Francisco and Pittsburgh have a combined 16-8 record while their three opponents boast a collective 7-17 SU mark.

And while those spreads are some of the highest NFL gamblers have dealt with this season, Korner says those early lines aren’t high enough. His service sent out suggested spreads of 13 points for all three of those contests.

“Why wouldn’t you be high on these games if you were a sportsbook?,” Korner says. “Why would you want to have to cheer for the underdog come Sunday? I can explain why our lines are so high on these games. I can’t give any reasons to go lower.”

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, 41.5)

This is the main event of Week 10’s Sunday slate, pitting two 7-1 heavyweights against each other in the Windy City.

But while this Sunday Night Football slugfest has all the makings of a classic bout, Korner says it may be a bit overhyped. A win Sunday night would be a nice feather in the cap for either team, but with this being a non-conference contest between two division leaders, it probably won’t have much say in the grand scheme of things.

“It doesn’t really mean much. There isn’t anything at stake,” he says. “Although, it’s going to be a good game, it might be just that – a good game – and nothing else.”

Korner says his team of oddmakers brought spreads between a pick and Chicago -3 to the table, eventually sending out a suggested spread of Bears -2.5. Most online shops opened this game at -1 with some moving to -1.5.

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 48)

This AFC-versus-NFC matchup is one of the toughest spreads to get a grip on during Week 10.

The Chargers snapped a three-game losing streak against the Chiefs Thursday, thanks to a 21-point fourth quarter explosion. The Bucs continued their solid play, picking up their second straight “W” in a shootout with Oakland.

The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of Tampa Bay -1.5 and plenty of online books opened with similar odds. But instant action on the Buccaneers took the spread all the way to the key number of -3.

“San Diego is notorious for being a second-half team,” says Korner. “They start slow and then come on strong.”

“This is a pretty close game, not as high profile as some others and with two teams looking towards the playoffs,” he adds. “But it will not land on three, I can guarantee that.”

**Udog** · 11-06-2012, 08:48 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Orlando at Chicago
The Bulls look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 games against teams from the NBA Southeast Division. Chicago is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-9). Here are all of today's picks

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 6

Game 701-702: Orlando at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 111.245; Chicago 126.637
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 15 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 9; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-9); Under

Game 703-704: Toronto at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 118.268; Oklahoma City 124.890
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9; 199
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+9); Over

Game 705-706: Detroit at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 111.266; Denver 123.513
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 12; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 10; 197
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-10); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, November 6

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ORLANDO (2 - 0) at CHICAGO (2 - 1) - 11/6/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 99-73 ATS (+18.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-3 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (1 - 2) at OKLAHOMA CITY (1 - 2) - 11/6/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 2-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 2-1 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (0 - 3) at DENVER (0 - 3) - 11/6/2012, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, November 6

Hot Teams
-- Orlando won its first two games, by 13-21 points. Chicago won two of its first three games, but they're 0-2 as a home favorite.

Cold Teams
-- Harden-less Thunder lost two of first three games. Raptors lost two of first three games, losing by 2-7 points.
-- Denver started the season with an 0-3 road trip; this is their home opener. Pistons lost first three games, by 9-3-29 points.

Totals
-- Four of last five Orlando road games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- 13 of last 18 Detroit games went over the total.

Last Year's Series Records
-- Road team won all three Orlando-Chicago games LY; Bulls won last meeting 85-59.
-- Raptors lost 91-75 here in LY's only meeting.
-- Pistons lost 116-115 here in LY's only meeting.

NBA

Tuesday, November 6

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
TORONTO vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games
Toronto is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto

8:00 PM
ORLANDO vs. CHICAGO
Orlando is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Orlando is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Orlando
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Orlando

9:00 PM
DETROIT vs. DENVER
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Denver is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing Detroit
Denver is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Detroit

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NBA

Tuesday, November 6

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Game of the day: Raptors at Thunder
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Toronto Raptors at Oklahoma City Thunder (-8.5, 199)

Whatever the problem is with the Oklahoma City Thunder, it isn’t newcomer Kevin Martin. The defending Western Conference champs have dropped two of their first three games despite strong efforts from Martin, who has taken over James Harden’s vacated role as sixth man. Looking to take advantage of the brief stumble by the Thunder will be the Toronto Raptors, who visit Oklahoma City on Tuesday. The Raptors bring some momentum and a solid backcourt into the matchup.

The Thunder struggled defensively in the second half of a home loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday and did not help themselves with 21 turnovers. Martin was the bright spot off the bench and has hit 12 of 17 3-point attempts in the first three games. The Raptors have a backcourt that they believe they can build around, and the early returns from the Kyle Lowry-DeMar DeRozan pairing are strong. The two each scored 22 points and took turns scoring and distributing in a win over Minnesota on Sunday.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TSN (Toronto), Fox Sports Oklahoma (Oklahoma City), NBATV

LINE: OKC opened at -9 and has been bet down to -8.5. The total opened at 199 points.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (1-2, 1-2 ATS): Toronto brought in Lowry over the summer and signed DeRozan to an extension with the idea that the two could thrive together. After a bumpy first two games, those two came together against the Timberwolves on Sunday. Lowry was the main scorer during a surge in the second quarter that gave the Raptors the lead and DeRozan took over at the end. Toronto has also showed a willingness to buy into coach Dwane Casey’s defensive system, holding two of their first three opponents to 90 points or less.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS): Martin is not the same force on the pick-and-roll and does not get to the rim like Harden did, but he can certainly put up points in bunches. With the defense focusing on Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, Martin went for 28 points on 8-of-11 shooting in the 104-95 loss to Atlanta on Sunday. Defensively, Oklahoma City had trouble with Lou Williams and Jeff Teague of the Hawks and will need to correct that to stop DeRozan and Lowry. Durant has recorded a double-double in each of the first three games but has also turned the ball over 16 times.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
* Raptors are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Raptors are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Oklahoma City.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Martin has averaged 16.5 points on 39.0 percent shooting in 15 career games against the Raptors - his third-worst shooting percentage against any opponent.

2. The Thunder took last season’s meeting, 91-75, behind 23 points from Durant. Toronto forward Andrea Bargnani missed the second half of that game with a calf injury.

3. Lowry’s emergence has taken playing time from point guard Jose Calderon, who has seen his time drop from 25 minutes in the first game to 21 in the second and 14 in the third.

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NBA

Tuesday, November 6

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Bank shots: NBA betting news and notes
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Here are the best and worst bets in the NBA, so far…

Best ATS

New Orleans Hornets (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS)

The Hornets scored a big 89-82 win over the Chicago Bulls, minus Anthony Davis, as 9.5-point road underdogs Saturday. New Orleans got a great game from center Robin Lopez and out-muscled a Bulls team known for throwing its weight around. Davis is recovering from a concussion and is questionable for Wednesday’s game in Philadelphia. The No. 1 overall pick was stellar in his first one and a half games as a pro before catching an accidental elbow. His shot- blocking can only help New Orleans improve on its fourth-ranked defense, which is allowing 89 points a night.

Worst ATS

Boston Celtics (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)

The Celtics are tied with the Phoenix Suns for the worst bet to start the season, but who in their right mind is betting the Suns? Boston has a loyal following, which has suffered in the first week. Without a true center – Kevin Garnett has taken on that role – the Celtics are allowing opponents to score 101.7 points on 48 percent shooting (27th in the NBA). On offense, Boston has struggled to find a replacement for Ray Allen’s output and Avery Bradley’s injury compounds those problems.

Best Over

Dallas Mavericks (2-1 SU, 3-0 over/under)

The Mavs offense was supposed to stall without Dirk Nowitzki knocking down leaners from the wing. However, Dallas has put the gas pedal down and gone with a smaller, quick-hitting lineup that is averaging 106.3 points per game through the first three outings. New faces Darren Collison, O.J. Mayo and rookie Jae Crowder have helped pick up the scoring slack and oddsmakers have helped out as well, trimming the Mavericks’ totals due to Dirk’s absence.

Best Under

Oklahoma City Thunder (1-2 SU, 1-2 over/under)

There were a ton of teams to pick from for the best under bet, even a few 0-2 over/under squads. But, in the interest of uncovering value, the Thunder have to be the best under bet through three games – even though one did top the total. Last season, Oklahoma City averaged more than 103 points and ranked third in scoring. This year, OKC is puttering along at 95 points per game out of the blocks. The James Harden trade took away the Thunder’s boost off the bench, allowing for an offensive letdown when Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook take a seat. That’s a big hole in the game plan. Can Kevin Martin be that guy? Maybe he should try growing a beard.

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**Udog** · 11-06-2012, 10:32 AM

NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, November 6

Orlando at Chicago, 8:05 ET
Orlando: 2-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points
Chicago: 15-4 ATS off a non-conference game

Toronto at Oklahoma City, 8:05 ET NBATV
Toronto: 4-14 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points
Oklahoma City: 23-11 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite

Detroit at Denver, 9:05 ET
Detroit: 29-14 ATS after allowing 105+ points
Denver: 13-4 Under at home off an Over

Announcement

Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 11/6 (NBA, NCAAB, CFL, Misc.)

Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 11/6 (NBA, NCAAB, CFL, Misc.)

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