Tweet
posted some plays on my site on tuesday so lines moved a little
I like Min/Sea under 39.5 & Car/Was over 46 and may make official plays
2* Balt -3 over Cleveland
I posted this early Tuesday, the line is now 3.5. I still like Balt at 3.5, but if you could buy the half at -125 or better I would do so
If you follow my site you now that I love home dogs and VERY rarely wager on road favs, but I really like Baltimore in this game. Remember, that road favs are about 47% ATS (and push 3% of time), so you can win but you have be selective. When you see value you have to take it. Baltimore was over valued before their last game at Houston, and now I think they are under valued and there is over reacion to that game. In their first meeting Balt was an 11 point fav. Altough that game was close, it was a terrible situation for the Ravens. Last week SD was about a FG fav at Clev. Do you think that Balt is only 0.5 points better that SD? No way! Statistically, Balt will run all over the Browns. They are 4th in YPR, while Cleveland is 22nd in YPR allowed (4.4 YPR). Cleveland's O is bad (21st in YPR an 28th in YPPA). Balt's D is the same D as old, but I think that their offensive coordinator will slow down their no huddle offense and give the D more rest. Baltimore is coming off a blowout loss and a bye which puts them in a great position for a big win here! I have a 68-32 ATS trend because of this fact. My calculated line is Balt -5.5...easy win. Sometimes the "square" play is the right play.
2* Pit +3.5 over N.Y. Giants
Get this in ASAP to lock in the key number of 3.5
When I run my stats, it amazes me that the Giants aren't giving up 30 PPG. They allow 8.3 YPPA (30th) and 4.6 YPR (25th). Their red zone D is good which compensates, but this bend but don't break D will not last. Eventually this is going to lead to points. Pit is 2nd in YPPA allowed and will be able to slow down Manning and the G men. My calculated line is NYG -1.5 so there is line value on the Steelers. This is a classic let down game for the Giants also. They are off 2 consecutive division games (and SF before that which was a huge game) and now play a non-conference opponent (the most meaningless game in terms of playoff birth). I think the Steelers get the win here, I would take 10-20% of your bet on the money line also. Pitt will be forced to travel on game day due to the hurricane. I am not sure how this will affect their play, but half the Giants players lost their homes and they were effected all week, so hopefully these cancel out.
2* Carolina +3.5 over Washington
This will be 3 by gametime so I would lock it in as soon as possible
This is a battle of 2 good offenses and 2 terrible defenses. In these game I love the dog, especially when getting over a FG. These teams are almost identical statistically. Wash is 2nd in YPR and 2nd in YPPA. Carolina is 8th in YPR and 2nd in YPPA. Both run D's are middle of the pack and their pass D's are at the bottom. The Schedule position strongly favors carolina and I have a 76-31 ATS trend favoring the panthers due to ther 5 consecutive losses. I think Carolina get the win here also and would make a small wager on the money line.
I like Min/Sea under 39.5 & Car/Was over 46 and may make official plays
2* Balt -3 over Cleveland
I posted this early Tuesday, the line is now 3.5. I still like Balt at 3.5, but if you could buy the half at -125 or better I would do so
If you follow my site you now that I love home dogs and VERY rarely wager on road favs, but I really like Baltimore in this game. Remember, that road favs are about 47% ATS (and push 3% of time), so you can win but you have be selective. When you see value you have to take it. Baltimore was over valued before their last game at Houston, and now I think they are under valued and there is over reacion to that game. In their first meeting Balt was an 11 point fav. Altough that game was close, it was a terrible situation for the Ravens. Last week SD was about a FG fav at Clev. Do you think that Balt is only 0.5 points better that SD? No way! Statistically, Balt will run all over the Browns. They are 4th in YPR, while Cleveland is 22nd in YPR allowed (4.4 YPR). Cleveland's O is bad (21st in YPR an 28th in YPPA). Balt's D is the same D as old, but I think that their offensive coordinator will slow down their no huddle offense and give the D more rest. Baltimore is coming off a blowout loss and a bye which puts them in a great position for a big win here! I have a 68-32 ATS trend because of this fact. My calculated line is Balt -5.5...easy win. Sometimes the "square" play is the right play.
2* Pit +3.5 over N.Y. Giants
Get this in ASAP to lock in the key number of 3.5
When I run my stats, it amazes me that the Giants aren't giving up 30 PPG. They allow 8.3 YPPA (30th) and 4.6 YPR (25th). Their red zone D is good which compensates, but this bend but don't break D will not last. Eventually this is going to lead to points. Pit is 2nd in YPPA allowed and will be able to slow down Manning and the G men. My calculated line is NYG -1.5 so there is line value on the Steelers. This is a classic let down game for the Giants also. They are off 2 consecutive division games (and SF before that which was a huge game) and now play a non-conference opponent (the most meaningless game in terms of playoff birth). I think the Steelers get the win here, I would take 10-20% of your bet on the money line also. Pitt will be forced to travel on game day due to the hurricane. I am not sure how this will affect their play, but half the Giants players lost their homes and they were effected all week, so hopefully these cancel out.
2* Carolina +3.5 over Washington
This will be 3 by gametime so I would lock it in as soon as possible
This is a battle of 2 good offenses and 2 terrible defenses. In these game I love the dog, especially when getting over a FG. These teams are almost identical statistically. Wash is 2nd in YPR and 2nd in YPPA. Carolina is 8th in YPR and 2nd in YPPA. Both run D's are middle of the pack and their pass D's are at the bottom. The Schedule position strongly favors carolina and I have a 76-31 ATS trend favoring the panthers due to ther 5 consecutive losses. I think Carolina get the win here also and would make a small wager on the money line.
Comment