NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thursday, November 1 - Saturday, November 4)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 3

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What bettors need to know: Alabama at LSU
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Alabama at LSU (8, 39.5)

Alabama should finally get a test when the top-ranked Crimson Tide visit Death Valley on Saturday night to face No. 5 LSU in a rematch of last season’s BCS National Championship Game. The undefeated Tide have won every game by at least 19 points and just demolished a very good Mississippi State team. Alabama leads the nation in scoring defense (8.1), while LSU ranks ninth (14.6). The fifth-ranked Tigers had a week off to prepare following wins over ranked foes South Carolina and Texas A&M. Alabama has won three of the past five meetings with LSU, including the 21-0 shutout in the title game, and leads the all-time series 46-25-5.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Alabama -8, O/U 41.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with a slight 20 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the south.

ABOUT ALABAMA (8-0, 3-0 SEC): Running behind the nation’s top offensive line, T.J. Yeldon (649 yards, 7.0 yards per carry, seven touchdowns) and Eddie Lacy (596 yards, 5.5, seven) have battered opponents into submission. Quarterback AJ McCarron has thrown 18 touchdown passes without an interception, with freshman wide receiver Amari Cooper (32 catches, 472 yards, five touchdowns) emerging as a major threat. The defense has allowed opponents to enter the red zone only 15 times in eight games. Only one of Alabama’s last 22 opponents has gained 300 total yards.

ABOUT LSU (7-1, 3-1): Freshman running back Jeremy Hill stole the show in LSU’s wins over the Aggies and Gamecocks, running for 251 yards and three touchdowns on 35 carries. He is part of a dynamic backfield that includes Kenny Hilliard (420 rushing yards, six touchdowns) and Michael Ford (357, three). But the Tigers rank 90th nationally in pass efficiency as quarterback Zach Mettenberger is hitting 56.6 percent of his throws with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. Defensive end Sam Montgomery (nine tackles for loss, four sacks) leads a fierce front seven, while linebacker Kevin Minter has 75 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss and three sacks.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
* Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Crimson Tide is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Crimson Tide’s last five road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Dating to last season, McCarron has thrown 262 straight passes without an interception, an Alabama record and the second-longest streak in SEC history.

2. Alabama is 34-for-35 in the red zone - 26 touchdowns and eight field goals.

3. Under Les Miles, LSU is 5-1 following a scheduled open date and 36-1 in Saturday night home games. The Tigers have won a school-record 22 straight in Death Valley.


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[Udog]

Where the action is: NCAAF Week 10 line moves

This weekend’s college football schedule is littered with marquee matchups. While the public sizes up those big games, the wiseguys are making things interesting with the rest of the slate. We talk to Aron Black of bet365.com about some of the notable line moves on the Week 10 board.

For an inside look at the lines for Week 10’s biggest matchups, including Alabama at LSU, check out our mid-week line report with John Avello, sportsbook director of the Wynn in Las Vegas.

Oklahoma Sooners at Iowa State Cyclones – Open: ISU +10.5, Move: ISU +12.5

The Sooners are coming off a high-profile loss to Notre Dame last weekend and star RB Damien Williams may not be able to go against Iowa State due to an ankle injury. That injury and another to OL Lane Johnson, who is probable, drew the early money to ISU before the public sided with the Sooners.

“History between the two teams says OU in a walk, but Iowa State has been a bit notorious in recent years of taking down bigger-name teams,” says Black. “On a weekend where the focus is on larger BCS-implication games, Iowa State may see this as an opportunity to get some good press if they can pull off the upset.”

Black says if Williams is able to go, the spread could climb as high as 13.5 by kickoff.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks – Open: Arkansas -5.5, Move: Arkansas -9

The Razorbacks have been the biggest disappointment of the college football season, but perhaps oddsmakers were sinking the Hogs too far down their power ratings for this one. Arkansas opened -5.5 and has since moved as high as -9 with sharp action on the home side.

Tulsa comes into Saturday having won seven in a row since dropping the opener to ISU, posting a 3-3 ATS mark in lined games during that stretch. However, that 7-1 SU mark may be a big misleading thanks to a ton of cupcake opponents.

“Most will probably swerve this game, in my opinion,” says Black. “It’s a tough call to take a home team who should win, but have to pay a much steeper price now, or take a road team who is playing very well but against supposed inferior teams than Arkansas.”

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Maryland Terrapins – Open: Maryland +6.5, Move: Maryland +9

The Terps are digging deep into their QB depth chart after losing four quarterbacks to injury. Maryland hands the ball to linebacker-turned-passer Shawn Petty. Black says Georgia Tech really isn’t worthy of being this big a road favorite, but it’s been all Jackets money with the Terps trapped in QB hell.

“Everyone loves a story like this, especially if Petty can steer the Terps to a win,” says Black. "It’s a movie-style plot and good luck to him. We’ll be hoping he can at least cover the points.”

Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State Buckeyes – Open: OSU -24.5, Move: OSU -27.5

Bettors have zero confidence in Illinois heading to Columbia this Saturday. The Illini have yet to win a conference game and are being handed their asses to the tune of 26 points per game over their last five outings – all losses (0-5 ATS).

Black is, however, concerned about Ohio State's motivation due to its bowl ban and wonders when the team will start to take their foot off the gas. The Buckeyes are undefeated but have managed to cover just once in their last three contests.

“Ohio State just keeps playing good enough to win and, although they have only seen some wins by a nose or short head, they are 9-0 and have the Illini beaten in pretty much every aspect,” says Black. “However, everyone knows that no matter what Ohio State does, this year is not going to see any titles, or BCS or any official accolades.”

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans – Open: MSU -1.5, Move: MSU +1.5

This Big Ten spread has flipped at some books, making the Spartans slight home underdogs Saturday. Michigan State is just 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five contests while Nebraska is coming off back-to-back wins following its loss to Ohio State. The under has also moved for this conference clash, dropping from 44.5 to 44, and Black sees it falling even further by kickoff.

“I would expect a hard-hitting game with defense being the key on both sides,” he says. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line go a bit to Michigan State but it’s pretty much a pick’em regardless. The under looks to be the play.”

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Update

Saturday's games
Top games
Underdogs covered 10 of last 11 ULL-ULM games, with Ragin’ Cajuns winning last four, last two by one point each; last three series games were decided by total of six points. ULL won its last three visits here, but this is first winning team Warhawks have fielded at I-A level; ULM scored 31+ points in its last six games- Auburn (28-31) is only team to hold them under 31. ULM is 3-6-1 vs spread as a home favorite under Berry; three of their four league wins are by 14 points. ULL lost ESPN mid-week games the last two weeks, both as favorites; they’re 13-2 vs spread in last 15 games as a road dog. Sun Belt home favorites are 3-13 against spread in league play.

USC is 6-2 but best team they’ve beaten is probably Utah, hardly world beaters; they turned ball over five times in 39-36 loss at Arizona last week. Favorites covered seven of last nine Oregon-USC games; Ducks split last four visits here, winning 53-32 (-6.5) in 2010, 28-17 (-1) in ’00. Trojans are underdog for first time this year; they’re 0-2 as home dog under Kiffin. Oregon is 9-5 as road favorites under Kelly; they won 43-21 (-9) at Arizona State in only true road game this season. There was shooting at a Halloween party on USC campus Wednesday night; not sure if that dampens mood on campus this week, but it did happen and distractions are rarely good.

Underdogs covered last four Arizona State-Oregon State games, with Sun Devils losing four of last five visits here, last two by total of 5 points. ASU gave up 43-45 points in losing home games last two weeks; since ’02, they’re 12-21-2 vs spread as road underdogs. Since 2009, Oregon State is just 3-9 as home favorites; they’re 1-1 this year, allowing total of 20 points in three home wins, by 3-13-14 points. Former backup QB Vaz is getting starting nod at QB for OSU, after former starter Mannion (knee) struggled in loss at Washington last week. Pac-12 home favorites are 9-8 vs spread in conference play. Five of seven Beaver games, four of last six ASU games stayed under the total.

Favorites are 9-5 in last 14 Arizona-UCLA games; Wildcats won their last five games with UCLA, all by 7+ points, winning last two in Rose Bowl, 29-21/31-10. Arizona scores lot of points; they’ve scored 35+ in two of three losses; since ’06, they’re 10-12-1 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year, losing 49-0 (+23) at Oregon, 54-48 OT (+9) at Stanford. UCLA is 2-5 vs spread in last seven games as a home favorite; they’re 6-0 this year when scoring 21+ points, 0-2 when they don’t. Four of last six I-A opponents scored 36+ points against Arizona. Wildcats’ last four games went over the total. Pac-12 home teams are 17-16 vs spread, favorites are also 17-16.

Other Notes
-- Penn State covered 10 of last 13 as a road favorite.
-- Favorite covered five of last six Vanderbilt-Kentucky games.
-- California covered 13 of last 21 Pac-12 home games.
-- Oklahoma is 16-6-1 vs spread in game following its last 23 losses.

-- Indiana is favored in a league game for the first time in five years.
-- Underdog is 6-0-1 vs spread in last seven Pitt-Notre Dame games.
-- Auburn covered once in its last 12 non-conference games.
-- Home side covered six of last eight UConn-USF games.

-- South Florida is only team in D-I without an interception this year.
-- Home side covered seven of last nine Wyoming-Colorado State games; this is a pretty big rivalry.
-- Road team covered last seven Hawai'i-Fresno State games.
-- Home side covered eight of last nine Arizona-UCLA games.

[Udog]

College cramming: Great betting tidbits for Week 10

-Connecticut has the worst red zone efficiency defense in the country. The Huskies have failed to cover in five straight games and are 8-point underdogs at South Florida today. Hawaii has the second worst red zone efficiency D and it has also failed to cover in its past five. (33.5-pt dogs at Fresno St. today.)

-From ESPN: "The Oregon offense has scored a touchdown on 80 percent of its drives inside the 20 when the game margin is within 28 points. That ranks second in the nation behind Texas. The Oregon defense is best in the FBS in this category at 22 percent (four TDs allowed in 18 drives)." The total bounced back up to 70 for the Ducks-Trojans overnight at a couple of books.

-- Pitt’s top rusher Ray Graham, top receiver Devin Street and top kick returner Lafayette Pitts are in some trouble. They’ve been charged with simple assault and conspiracy in connection with an incident last month involving three other students. News came out Friday afternoon they will not be held out against Notre Dame Saturday.

-- Four injured QBs - three of them got hurt in the past week - mean Maryland is starting freshman linebacker Shawn Petty at QB this week. He learned the offense two weeks ago. His backup is freshman tight end Brian McMahon. Surprise! The Terps are 8-point home dogs this week vs. Ga. Tech.

-- LSU holds the nation’s longest home winning streak at 22 games. The Tigers are a less impressive 10-12 ATS during that streak. Incidentally, they were 9.5-point underdogs the last time they lost at home on Oct. 10, 2009 (13-3 to Florida), same spread as this week versus Alabama.

-- From the Wall Street Journal: Iowa State hasn't beaten Oklahoma since Eisenhower was president - the worst home losing streak to an opponent in college football. The Cylones are 12.5-point dogs to the Sooners this week. Featured in the list to the right are the worst home losing streaks to an opponent in college. Minnesota also looks to beat Michigan at home for the first time since '77. The Gophers are 10-pt dogs.

-- Hot: Clemson has covered five in a row and has ratcheted up at least 37 points in every game since its first this year against Auburn. Clemmy is laying 12.5 at Duke.

-- Cold: Virginia is 0-9-1 ATS (against the spread in its last 10 games going back to last season. The Cavs are coming off a bye and are 10.5-point dogs at N.C. State.

-- Indiana is the only FBS team not to lose a fumble this season. The Hoosiers have covered four straight games, all as bow-wows. Oddsmakers have caught up to them though and they’re laying 2 at home against Iowa this week.

-- Iowa is scoring a touchdown per game less this year than last year (20.4 ppg vs. 27.5 ppg). Hawkeyes have failed to score 20 points in five of eight games this season and blame is falling on QB James Vandenberg. Still, Iowa is seeing its highest total of the season (56) at Indiana Saturday.

-- Missouri played under in five of its last six games. It’s kind of simple formula: Respectable defense (334 yards against per game, 24th in the country) and an offense with two gagging QBs. Last week’s 33-point outburst was largely due to great field position. Total is 42.5 at Florida this week.

-Sportsbook.ag reports they are seeing 88% of their action on Oregon at USC this week as of Friday afternoon. The Ducks have gone from -7.5 to -8.5.

-Oregon dismantled a horrible Colorado team last week. Every team that has played Colorado so far this season, lost its next game.

-- Mississippi State opened at +1.5 and moved to +6.5 this week at home vs. Texas A&M. Wynn sportsbook director John Avello: “(Mississippi State) is going to test this Texas A&M team for sure. Texas A&M is a good team year in and year out, and they’re OK on the road. But they don’t always go on the road and dominate and they’ve only had a few weak road games this year.”

-- Georgia coach Mark Richt called linebacker Jarvis Jones ‘the best player in America’ this week. Jones ranks No. 1 in the nation in tackles for loss (2.33 per game), No. 1 in forced fumbles (.83 per game) and No. 2 in sacks (1.42 per game). In last week’s victory over Florida, he had three sacks, forced two fumbles and recovered two fumbles. May be safe to say Jones’ nagging ankle injury is finally healed.

-- Penn State has outscored foes 66-0 in the first quarter. Nittany Lions are only FBS team not to allow first-quarter point. On a separate note, the under is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings between Penn State and Purdue.

-- Mismatch: Rice ranks fourth in rushing offense in C-USA with 183.6 yards a game. Tulane ranks 11th in rush defense, allowing 247.5 yards per game. Tulane hasn't won a homecoming game since 2006 and is getting 5.5 points against Rice at home.

-- UNLV has its homecoming this week. The Rebs stink, yes, but they're 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four games and they're actually 4-point faves to New Mexico. UNLV has been a favorite against an FBS opponent only three times over the past three seasons and all three times its been against New Mexico.

-- There are three totals have have held above 70 points this week: Arizona-UCLA (71), Kansas-Baylor (71), Texas State-La. Tech (73). Oregon-USC jumped up to 70 at a couple of books overnight Friday.

-- Some notes about La. Tech, 7-1 over/under record this season: No interceptions thrown. (Alabama is the only other team that hasn't thrown an INT yet.) Louisiana Tech has more red-zone touchdowns (44) this year than 115 FBS schools have red-zone trips.

-- Boston College has been held to 32 and eight rushing yards respectively in its past two games. Not surprisingly, the Eagles are the worst rushing team in the ACC.

-- Colorado State has relied on third-string QB Connor Smith its past two games, thanks to injuries to the Rams' top two passers. Let's just say they're relying more on their running game right now, which ranks 113th in the nation. They are 7.5-point dogs at Wyoming.

- Auburn gave up a school-record 671 yards in last week's 63-21 loss to Texas A&M. They've now lost five in a row but are 22.5-point favorites over New Mexico State this week.

[Udog]

College football betting weather watch: Week 10

Vanderbilt at Kentucky (6.5, 46)

Site: Commonwealth Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be light out of the east.

Akron at Kent State (-20, 59)

Site: Dix Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with a 50 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the north at 11 mph.

Iowa at Indiana (-2.5, 55.5)

Site: Memorial Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with a 50 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the east.

Kansas at Baylor (-17, 71)

Site: Floyd Casey Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out of the south at 9 mph.

Texas at Texas Tech (-7, 67)

Site: Jones AT&T Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 25 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the north at 10 mph.

Louisiana-Lafayette at Louisiana-Monroe (-9.5, 62)

Site: James L. Malone Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-80s with a 35 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be light out of the west.

Texas-San Antonio at Louisiana Tech (-30.5, 73)

Site: Joe Aillet Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-80s with a 35 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be light out of the south.

Alabama at LSU (8, 39.5)

Site: Tiger Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-60s with a 25 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the south.

Arizona State at Oregon State (-3.5, 56)

Site: Reser Stadium

Forecasts are predicting temperatures in the mid-50s with a 50 percent chance of rain. Winds will be calm.