Announcement

**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 11:53 AM

NFL odds: Week 9 opening line report

We usually save our “Lines that make you go hmmm…” for later in the week, but Week 9’s Monday night matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints has everyone – from books to bettors – scratching their heads.

“This is a really tough game,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Covers. “The initial perception is that this is going to be a really good game, exciting with lots of scoring. But, in reality, it’s looking like a 17-14 game.”

Korner’s crew of oddsmakers sent out a suggested spread of Saints -5. Online books opened the game as low as New Orleans -3. Regardless of the opening line, it’s safe to say Week 9’s marquee Monday Night Football game features the two most disappointing teams of the 2012 season.

New Orleans, hindered by all the offseason drama of Bountygate, is 2-5 SU (3-4 ATS) and coming off an embarrassing 34-14 loss to the Denver Broncos Sunday night. The Eagles are also limping into Week 9, falling to 3-4 SU (1-5-1 ATS) after a 30-17 flogging by the undefeated Atlanta Falcons.

“I’m lost on this game,” laughs Korner. “One team will have to win, in that case we’ll go with the home team.”

Korner was baffled by the betting patterns for the Falcons-Eagles game, which saw Philadelphia open as the favorite and draw action throughout the course of the week. He’s even more surprised that many online books have opened this week’s spread as low as a field goal.

Korner admits New Orleans hasn’t performed much better, but the Saints are far from the hot mess that has become the Eagles’ season.

Quarterback Michael Vick continues to limit the offense, which has scored just 17.1 points per game (30th in the NFL). Rumors are picking up momentum that head coach Andy Reid – whose job is on the chopping block - may look to backup QB Nick Foles in an attempt to save the season and his job.

“I think Reid’s time is coming to an end,” says Korner.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.5, 42.5)

By now, we’ve all read the cringe-inducing stats regarding the Chiefs and their futility this season and you could make an argument that Kansas City is the worst NFL team we’ve seen in some time.

The odds for Thursday night’s meeting between the Chiefs and Chargers are teetering on double digits at some markets while others have this standalone game as low as Bolts -8.

Korner says two of his oddsmakers brought spreads of 7.5 to the table while others had it as high as 10. He’s suggesting keeping this number as high as possible and sent out San Diego -9.5, even suggesting a move to -10 or above.

“You don’t want to be cheering for Kansas City come Thursday night,” he says.

Korner is throwing out the Chargers’ 7-6 loss to the Cleveland Browns Sunday, believing the bad weather had a lot to do with San Diego’s lack of offense. Quarterback Philip Rivers went just 18 for 34 and finished with 154 yards and no touchdowns.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3.5, 47)

The Giants escaped a second-half collapse versus the Dallas Cowboys Sunday to improve to 6-2 and now return home to host the Pittsburgh Steelers, who beat up on New York’s NFC East rivals, the Washington Redskins, in Week 8.

Korner sent out the G-Men at -5 while online books are offering the defending champs as low as a field goal. He says people are thinking about New York’s dreadful second half in Dallas and forgetting the one important thing.

“New York won that game,” says Korner. “The Giants just plain win. For them to be 3-point favorites in Dallas, it should warrant them being bigger than 3-point favorites at home to a Pittsburgh team that isn’t the same ole Pittsburgh team.”

“It’s a really good game, and the Giants seem to always win these big games”

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-5, 47.5)

Korner believes football bettors are getting a deal on the Falcons as 5-point favorites, after sending out the lone unblemished squad as touchdown chalk at home on Sunday night.

“This is cheap,” says Korner. “(Atlanta) has firepower, it’s explosive, it’s playing good defense. If they can handle Philly on the road, they can surely handle Dallas at home.”

Korner says a lot of the parlay money for Sunday will be tied into this Sunday nighter, making it one of the deciding games of the Week 9 slate.

**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 11:53 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 9

Kansas City at San Diego
The Chargers look to bounce back from their 7-6 loss to Cleveland last week and build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. San Diego is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Chargers favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 1

Game 301-302: Kansas City at San Diego (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 120.947; San Diego 134.078
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13; 39
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7 1/2); Under

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 4

Game 415-416: Denver at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 138.631; Cincinnati 129.723
Dunkel Line: Denver by 9; 51
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: Arizona at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 128.916; Green Bay 137.878
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 9; 49
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 11; 44
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+11); Over

Game 419-420: Miami at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 130.178; Indianapolis 131.441
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+2 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: Baltimore at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.684; Cleveland 129.428
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3 1/2); Under

Game 423-424: Buffalo at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 125.396; Houston 137.930
Dunkel Line: Houston by 12 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Houston by 10; 47
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-10); Over

Game 425-426: Carolina at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.186; Washington 131.606
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3 1/2); Under

Game 427-428: Detroit at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 128.145; Jacksonville 127.085
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3 1/2); Over

Game 429-430: Chicago at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 132.832; Tennessee 131.474
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3 1/2); Under

Game 431-432: Minnesota at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.755; Seattle 134.770
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 5; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+5); Over

Game 433-434: Tampa Bay at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 135.223; Oakland 128.261
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 7; 49
Vegas Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1 1/2); Over

Game 435-436: Pittsburgh at NY Giants (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.073; NY Giants 143.582
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 9 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3); Under

Game 437-438: Dallas at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 131.415; Atlanta 139.787
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Under

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 5

Game 439-440: Philadelphia at New Orleans (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 133.836; New Orleans 132.938
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 56
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 11:56 AM

Guys,

This report will update and I'll throw it in as soon as I see it.

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, November 1

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KANSAS CITY (1 - 6) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 4) - 11/1/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 4

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DENVER (4 - 3) at CINCINNATI (3 - 4) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 41-68 ATS (-33.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 106-142 ATS (-50.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (4 - 4) at GREEN BAY (5 - 3) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 145-107 ATS (+27.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (4 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 3) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (5 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 6) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (3 - 4) at HOUSTON (6 - 1) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 6) at WASHINGTON (3 - 5) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 47-80 ATS (-41.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 16-36 ATS (-23.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (3 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 6) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (6 - 1) at TENNESSEE (3 - 5) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (5 - 3) at SEATTLE (4 - 4) - 11/4/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (3 - 4) at OAKLAND (3 - 4) - 11/4/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 36-66 ATS (-36.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 28-62 ATS (-40.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (4 - 3) at NY GIANTS (6 - 2) - 11/4/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (3 - 4) at ATLANTA (7 - 0) - 11/4/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 5

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 5) - 11/5/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 148-110 ATS (+27.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing on Monday night since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-40 ATS (-25.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 11:59 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, November 1, 2012

(TC) Kansas City at San Diego, 8:25 ET NFL
Kansas City: 6-0 Under off a division game
San Diego: 18-7 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Denver at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Denver: 13-3 ATS after gaining 500+ total yards
Cincinnati: 14-4 Over vs. conference opponents

Arizona at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 9-2 Under in road games
Green Bay: 8-2 ATS off a non-conference game

Miami at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Miami: 15-5 ATS in road games
Indianapolis: 10-22 ATS at home off ATS losses in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

Baltimore at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 8-1 Over off a loss
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games

Buffalo at Houston, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 12-3 Over as an underdog
Houston: 15-4 ATS vs. conference opponents

Carolina at Washington, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 9-1 Over as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Washington: 1-5 ATS as a favorite

Detroit at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 4-17 ATS as a road favorite
Jacksonville: 7-0 ATS after losing 4 of their last 5 games

Chicago at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 28-13 Under away vs. non-conference opponents
Tennessee: 39-18 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Minnesota at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Minnesota: 23-10 Over away off BB home games
Seattle: 9-2 ATS in home games

Tampa Bay at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Tampa Bay: 26-12 ATS after scoring 30+ points
Oakland: 11-24 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Pittsburgh at NY Giants, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 1-8 ATS off a home win
NY Giants: 12-4 ATS off BB wins by 6 points or less

(TC) Dallas at Atlanta, 8:30 ET NBC
Dallas: 6-0 Over after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Atlanta: 3-13 ATS at home off 3+ wins

Monday, November 5, 2012

(TC) Philadelphia at New Orleans, 8:40 ET ESPN
Philadelphia: 13-4 ATS away on Monday Night Football
New Orleans: 13-5 Over vs. conference opponents

(TC) = Time Change

** Week 9 Byes: New England, NY Jets, San Francisco, St. Louis **

**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 12:00 PM

NFL

Week 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Thursday, November 1

8:20 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SAN DIEGO
Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Kansas City

Sunday, November 4

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Arizona is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 10 games at home
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. CINCINNATI
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. HOUSTON
Buffalo is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Buffalo is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Miami's last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Miami

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. TENNESSEE
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Washington is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Carolina

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. JACKSONVILLE
Detroit is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Detroit is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

4:05 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Minnesota is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Seattle's last 17 games at home

4:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. OAKLAND
Tampa Bay is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Oakland is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games at home

4:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. NY GIANTS
Pittsburgh is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games at home
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home

8:20 PM
DALLAS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas

Monday, November 5

8:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

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**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 11:00 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Chiefs (1-6) @ Chargers (4-3)—San Diego lost three in row since waxing Chiefs 37-20 (-2.5) at Arrowhead Sept 30, game where Chiefs turned ball over six times (-5), leading to Bolts’ 10-yard edge in average field position. KC has severe QB problems, with Quinn getting knocked goofy Sunday, and Cassel coming back from injury, was tossed around like piñata by Raiders Sunday; Chiefs have yet to lead any game in regulation this year- they trailed 24-6 in only game they won, at Saints. KC lost seven of last nine series games and last four visits here, by 1-29-31-3 points; long travel on short week makes this a tough task, even under normal circumstances. Chargers have only two 2nd half TD’s in last five games; since 2003, they’re 12-8-1 vs spread as divisional home favorite. AFC West home teams are 1-4 vs spread in divisional games. Five of Chiefs’ seven games went over the total.

Broncos (4-3) @ Bengals (3-4)—Denver survived gauntlet of early season primetime games vs quality foes, now head into softer part of schedule after hanging 35/34 points on Chargers/Saints; they’ve won 12 of last 14 games vs Bengals, winning last three, all by 5 or less points. Broncos scored 14 TD’s on last 40 drives; they’re 0-2 on artificial turf, losing to Falcons/Patriots, maybe two best teams in NFL. Bengals lost last three games before their bye, turning ball over eight times (-3); they’re 9-5-1 as home dogs since ’08, but covered just one of last four in that role- they’ve lost two of three at home this year, with only win against the Browns. Cincy is 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 games as a post-bye underdog (4-11-1 SU in last 16 post-bye games). AFC North teams are 6-13 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-1 as home dogs. Three of last four Bengal games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (4-4) @ Packers (5-3)—Arizona is only third team to be 4-4 after starting season 4-0; they head east on short week after dismal showing in 24-3 home loss to 49ers Monday night. Redbirds lost last eight games in Dairyland, with six of eight losses by 17+ points, but they did win last series meeting, 51-45 in OT in ’09 playoffs, when Warner was their QB-- their last win in Green Bay was in 1947. Packers are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a pre-bye favorite; they sleepwalked past Jaguars last week 24-15, getting outgained by 103 yards- they’re 1-3 as home favorites this year, after being 15-7 from 2009-11. Cardinals scored 91 points in first four games, 36 points in last four (3 TD’s on last 48 drives); opponents are taking Fitzgerald away, and no other viable options have emerged. NFC North faves are 7-10 vs spread in non-divisional games. Seven of eight Arizona games stayed under total.

Dolphins (4-3) @ Colts (4-3)—Back in May, no one figured winner of this game would hit halfway mark over .500. Miami won last its three games, allowing 12 ppg (3 TD’s on last 35 drives); they allowed 30-23-24 points in losses, 14 or less in wins- they’re 2-2 on road, and have been killing teams on special teams, with blocked punt/onside kick at Jets last week, just in first quarter. Colts won three of last four games; five of their last six were decided by 5 or less points, or in OT. Indy is 3-1 at home, with only loss when Jaguars hit 75-yard TD pass in last 2:00 after Colts had taken lead. Indy won last three series games, by 6-5-4 points, but that was in Manning era. Miami won five of last six visits here, mostly back when teams were AFC East rivals. AFC South home teams are 7-3 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last three Miami games and four of last six Colt contests stayed under total.

Ravens (4-3) @ Browns (2-6)—Baltimore lost 43-13 at Houston in last pre-bye game, outgained 420-176; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win 9-6 over woeful Chiefs, but Ravens won/covered nine of last ten post-bye games, so interesting to see if week off helped at all. Browns (+2.5) snuck past Chargers 7-6 in rain last week, their second straight home win; they’re 7-20 vs hated Ravens (former Browns), losing last nine series games, with six of nine by 10+ points. Ravens won first meeting 23-16 (-11), a Week 4 Thursday game, when Baltimore outrushed Browns 101-43 and threw ball for 337 yards, but now with Webb/ Lewis out for year, who steps up for their defense? Since ’08, Baltimore is 5-2 vs spread as an AFC North road favorite; Browns are 8-5 in last 13 games as divisional home underdog. Home teams covered three of first four AFC North divisional games. Five of seven Baltimore games went over the total.

Bills (3-4) @ Texans (6-1)—Mario Williams returns to Houston as expensive flop for Buffalo, which allowed 35+ points in all four losses, including last game before bye, when Titans scored on last play to win weird 35-34 game. Bills allowed 17 or less points in its three wins, but Texans are 3-1 as home favorites this year, scoring 33.8 ppg at Reliant (11 TDs on 43 home drives)- they’re 18-12-3 in last 33 games as home faves. Buffalo is scoring 18.5 ppg on road, 32.3 at home; they’re 3-6-1 in last 10 games as road dogs- their last two games overall were decided by total of four points. Bills are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as post-bye underdog (5-2 last seven SU), Texans are 3-1 as post-bye favorites, but lost five of last seven post-bye games SU. AFC East underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. Four of last five Houston games, five of seven Buffalo games went over total.

Panthers (1-6) @ Redskins (3-5)—This year’s most exciting rookie QB meets LY’s most exciting rookie QB; both teams are struggling, with Carolina losing last five games (last four by 5 or less points), Redskins losing three of last four. Panthers outgained Chicago 416-210 last week, but were poor in red zone (one TD, three FGs on four trips) and had 11-yard disadvantage in field position. Washington hasn’t held an opponent under 22 points this year- they’re 1-2 at home, with average total in three games, 58.0. Home side won last seven series games, with Carolina winning last two (20-17/33-20) after losing seven of first eight series meetings. Panthers are 0-5 at Washington, but all five losses were by 4 or less points. Five of last six series totals were 37 or less. NFC East favorites are 3-9 vs spread in non-divisional games. NFC South road underdogs are 7-1. Six of eight Washington games went over the total.

Lions (3-4) @ Jaguars (1-6)—Detroit’s three wins this year are all by 4 or less points, with winning points all coming in last 0:30 or in OT; Lions are 1-3 on road, with underdog covering three of four games. Over last decade, Detroit is 1-5-2 vs spread as a road favorite (0-1 in ’12), but they’re 5-2-2 vs spread in last nine games vas AFC teams. Jags have been awful at home, losing by 20-17-38 points (average score, 32-7); they’re 3-8 in last 11 games as home underdog- they’ve scored five offensive TDs in last four games, with two of five drives on short field (16-13 yards). Jax ran ball for just 61.3 ypg in last four games. Home side lost three of four series games, only one of which was decided by less than 15 points; Detroit lost both visits here, 37-22 in ’98, 23-17ot in ’04. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-10 against the spread. Four of last six Jaguar games stayed under total.

Bears (6-1) @ Titans (3-5)— Cutler played college ball in Nashville (Vanderbilt) so this is homecoming for him, after Chicago escaped with 23-22 home win over gritty Panthers last week (Bears were outgained 416-210); Bears have 23 takeaways in seven games (+12), and scored six TD’s on defense/special teams in last five games, hiding an offense that struggled in two games since bye (3.4/3.9 ypa last two games, allowing 11 sacks). Last three Titan games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT; last week’s OT loss to Colts was first close game Tennessee lost this year- four of its five losses are by 23+ points. Expect Bears to try and run ball vs Titan defense that allowed 166-171 rushing yards the last two weeks. AFC South underdogs are 8-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Three of last four Chicago games, four of last six Titan games went over total.

Vikings (5-3) @ Seahawks (4-4)—Seattle been much better at home; they’re 3-0 there, allowing 14 ppg while upsetting Packers/Patriots (giving up only four TDs on 30 drives)- they allow 20.4 ppg on road (8 TDs/50 drives). Seahawks are 0-2 as favorites this year (both games were on road); underdogs are 7-1 vs spread in their games this year- since ’05, they’re 22-12-1 vs spread as home favorites. Vikings are running ball for 105 ypg on road this year, 130 ypg at home- they had three extra days to prepare after bad home loss to Bucs. Minnesota is 1-3 when it allows 23+ points; they’ve given up 13-13-14 points in its their other wins. Teams haven’t met since ’09; Vikings won last two meetings, but lost four of six visits here. Six of last seven series games were decided by 17+ points. NFC North teams are 9-12 vs spread in non-divisional games. Six of eight Seattle games stayed under the total, as did five of Vikings’ last seven.

Buccaneers (3-4) @ Raiders (3-4)— Oakland won six of eight series games; last loss was to Gruden in SB XXXVII ten years ago; Bucs are 0-4 in Black Hole, losing by average score of 35-13. This year’s Raiders are showing signs of life after 1-4 start, beating pair of stiff teams after encouraging 23-20 loss at unbeaten Falcons- they’re 2-1 at home, but both wins (Pitt/Jax) were by a FG- since losing that Super Bowl, Oakland is 8-21 vs spread when favored at home. Bucs had extra time here after encouraging Thursday win at Minnesota; they’re 3-0 as road underdogs this year, as Vincent Jackson has proven to be valuable downfield target for Freeman. Bucs also ran ball for 134 yards/game in three weeks since their bye, so they’re getting better balance. NFC South road teams are 9-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last four Tampa Bay games, four of last six Raider games went over the total.

Steelers (4-3) @ Giants (6-2)—Real life intrudes; anyone who lives in New Jersey has had a rough week. Giants’ prep here has to have been disrupted. That said, if Archie Manning hadn’t strong-armed Chargers into trading his youngest son to Swamp, Giants would’ve drafted Big Ben, and NFL history would be different. Home teams lost four of last five series games, with Giants winning last meeting at Heinz in ’08. Pitt won three of last five visits here, but haven’t faced Big Blue here since ’04. Giants are 1-3 as home favorites this year, winning last three games in Swamp by 7-14-4 points; they’re coming off pair of wins over division rivals Redskins/Cowboys- underdogs covered seven of their eight games. Pitt is 1-3 on road this year, allowing 31-34-26 points in losses; they’ve allowed only one opponent (Raiders) to rush for 100+ yards. Giants are 1-3 vs spread when running ball for less than 100 yards. Since ’06, Steelers are 11-20-1 vs spread as road underdogs. Three of last four Steeler games stayed under; three of last four Giant games went over.

Cowboys (3-4) @ Falcons (7-0)—All three Dallas games since its bye went down to last minute, with Pokes losing two of three; loss to Giants last week was heartbreaker, rallying back from 23-0 deficit to take lead, before coming up just short. Cowboys are 2-2 on road; they’ve allowed 17 or less points in all three wins, 27+ in its four losses. Atlanta is NFL’s last unbeaten team; they’re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 6-2-3 points- since ’07, they’re 20-9-1 as home favorites. Atlanta scored 23+ points in every game this year, 27-30-23 in three home games. Dallas is 16-8 vs Falcons, winning last two meetings, last of which was in ’09; they’re 7-5 on Peachtree Street, winning last two visits- their last loss here was in ’93. NFC South home favorites are 3-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Three of last four Dallas games went over the total.

Eagles (3-4) @ Saints (2-5)— Two desperate, struggling teams; could be Vick’s last chance to keep starting job- if he can’t move ball against defense that allowed 513-530 yards in two games since its bye, then rookie Foles could see action. Philly also had disruptions this week after hurricane; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win in last 2:00 in Cleveland, hardly a green flag. Saints are putrid on defense but had scored 24+ points in every game until last week’s debacle in Denver, when they were outgained 530-252, with much of the 252 in garbage time. NO is 0-4 when it scores less than 31 points, but scary to back struggling visitor that recently canned its DC against Brees’ offense. Teams haven’t met since Saints won 40-22 in last meeting at Linc, three years ago; Eagles are 8-4 in last 12 visits here, 8-8 overall. NFC East road underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.

**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 11:21 PM

NFL

Thursday, November 1

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Tale of the tape: Kansas City at San Diego
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The last-place Kansas City Chiefs head to San Diego for a critical mid-season AFC West showdown with the Chargers Thursday night. Find out how this matchup breaks down with our tale of the tape.

Offense

Lost. That's the word that best describes the Chiefs offense right now. Kansas City has scored a grand total of 32 points over its last three games, losing all three by a combined 41-point margin. The Chiefs have done a terrific job of phasing out their biggest offensive threat, RB Jamaal Charles, as he's carried the ball only 17 times in the last two weeks. The Chiefs’ QB competition is anything but heated, with Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn taking turns stinking it up.

The weather can take some of the blame for the Chargers’ problems on offense last week, but not all of them. Norv Turner has said that he plans on scaling back the offense and that seemed apparent in Cleveland, as the Bolts ran the ball 34 times and dinked and dunked their way to only six points in a losing effort. Quarterback Philip Rivers is in the midst of his worst season to date, throwing for just over 1,600 yards, 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Last week's game marked the first time since the season opener that he didn't throw an interception.

Edge: San Diego

Defense

The Chiefs were supposed to be much better defensively this season after a brutal, injury-plagued 2011 campaign, but that hasn't been the case so far. They've given up at least 24 points in six of seven games, allowing over 30 points on four different occasions. Away from home, they've been torched for a whopping 7.1 yards per play. In last week's 10-point loss to the Raiders, Kansas City failed to record a single sack but did hold Carson Palmer to just 14 completions on 28 pass attempts.

San Diego's defense got off to a terrific start, holding its first two opponents to just 24 points combined. It's been all downhill from there, however, as the Chargers have given up at least 20 points in four of their last five contests. They did limit the Browns to only seven points last week, but Cleveland went the ultra-conservative route after scoring an early touchdown and given the poor weather conditions. San Diego is averaging less than a sack per game at home this season.

Edge: San Diego

Special teams

With their offense struggling, the Chiefs would love to get a boost from their special teams Thursday night. They've been solid returning punts, averaging over 12 yards per return, but fall just under the league average in terms of kick return yardage, averaging 22.5 ypr. They've yet to notch a return touchdown but have given up one. Field goal kicker Ryan Succop has been perfect when called upon, going 8 for 8 on field goal attempts.

The Chargers continue to give Eric Weddle punt returning duty, even though he's given them little to no production in that department. Perhaps he'll find some room to run against a Chiefs team that is allowing over 14 yards per punt return. San Diego has been slightly better returning kickoffs, but is missing the presence of Eddie Royal. Nick Novak has been an adequate replacement for Nate Kaeding, making good on 7 of 8 field goal attempts over the last four games.

Edge: Chiefs

Word on the street

"The lead, it's very important, especially because we've never had a lead this year. It would be very important to start off a game and especially good since we're playing on Thursday night on national TV." -- Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles on the fact the team hasn't held a lead this season.

“You’re coaching on a week-to-week basis. I’m coaching to do the best job I can to get our team ready to play Kansas City. All those other conversations, they’re going to take place. You know they’re going to take place.” - Chargers head coach Norv Turner when asked about his job security.

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**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 11:24 PM

NFL

Thursday, November 1

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Thursday Night Football: Chiefs at Chargers
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Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.5, 42.5)

Two struggling AFC West teams attempt to end losing streaks as the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers kick off Week 9 on Thursday night. Kansas City suffered its fourth straight loss Sunday, when it dropped a 26-16 decision to the Oakland Raiders. The Chiefs, who never led in the contest, erased a 6-0 deficit but fell behind for good in the final minute of the second quarter and went on to lose at home to the Raiders for the sixth consecutive time.

San Diego dropped its third straight on Sunday, losing a 7-6 decision at Cleveland. The Chargers outgained the Browns with 265 total yards but were unable to find the end zone, settling for a pair of field goals by Nick Novak. The Chargers won the first battle between the division rivals on Sept. 30, posting a 37-20 triumph at Kansas City as they capitalized on six turnovers and scored 27 points in the first half.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The Chargers opened as high as -10 and have been bet down as low as -7.5 at some online books. The total has dropped from 44 to 42.5 points.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-60s. Winds are expected to blow WNW at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-6, 2-5 ATS): Kansas City's offense has struggled mightily as it has found the end zone just once over its last three games. After posting only two field goals in a home loss to Baltimore on Oct. 7, the Chiefs recorded their only touchdown in a setback at Tampa Bay on Oct. 14 on a fumble return following a blocked punt. They nearly were held without an offensive TD by Oakland, but Matt Cassel hit Dexter McCluster with a 10-yard scoring strike with just under 2 1/2 minutes remaining in the game. Cassel will return to the starting lineup Thursday in favor of Brady Quinn, who was ruled out of the game after sustaining a concussion against the Raiders. LB Derrick Johnson is looking to make his 101st career start.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (3-4, 3-4 ATS): KR Richard Goodman's day did not last long Sunday as he injured his hamstring during his 21-yard return on the opening kickoff and did not return. Goodman has averaged 27.6 yards on 18 kickoff returns this season. QB Philip Rivers made his 103rd consecutive start. It is the second-longest streak among active quarterbacks behind the 127-game run by Eli Manning of the New York Giants. RB Ryan Mathews nearly posted his first 100-yard game of the season Sunday, falling five yards short. Mathews had a season-high 24 carries, two more than his total in a loss to Denver on Oct. 15.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in San Diego.
* Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 9.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Kansas City's lone victory came in overtime at New Orleans.

2. San Diego has scored a total of six points over its last six quarters.

3. The Chiefs lead the NFL with 25 turnovers.

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**Udog** · 11-02-2012, 09:54 AM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

With the calendar turning to November, books and bettors have a tighter grasp on the NFL teams heading into Week 9. We take a closer look at which lines have been on the move, in Las Vegas and online, with help from Jay Rood, sportsbook director at the MGM Mirage, and Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans – Open: Texas -12, Move: -10

It’s been all public money on the Texans so far in Nevada and online. Perry reports 70 to 80 percent of the action is on Houston while Rood says the sharps are sitting this one out. The number opened as high as -12, however, most markets are dealing the key number of 10 as of Thursday.

“Wise guys haven’t come in on this one at all,” Rood told Covers. “We might go to 11 and (sharps) might take a pop and move it back to 10.5.”

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts – Open: Colts +1, Move: +2.5

The Dolphins, winners of three in a row, have been wiseguy darlings this season. However, the sharp money hasn’t influenced this move yet. Rood says the money has been pretty split with a slight lean to Miami.

“It’s a tough game for the betting public to figure out,” he says. “I don’t see it going up right now. If the sharps are getting involved in it, it may move (to the key number of -3).”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders – Open: Raiders -1, Move: Pick

Money on the Bucs has moved this spread as far as a pick for Sunday’s game. Tampa Bay is another team drawing the admiration of sharps in recent weeks. Rood says the action has been split as of Thursday but the move to a pick’em at certain books may be an indication of where this line will end up.

“The +1 could be disappearing quickly and I could see it coming down to a pick at most places closer to game time,” he says.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks – Open: Seahawks -2.5, Move: -4.5

This spread was as high as -5 before buyback came in on the Vikings. Minnesota is coming off a crushing home loss last Thursday and travels for just the third time this season to the toughest stadium in the NFL. The spread isn’t the only thing on the move for this game. The total has dropped from 39.5 to 38.5.

“It’s going to be a test for Minnesota,” says Rood. “Minnesota’s defense is going to have to step up and give the offense a shot to win the game. It could be a test of wills on defense and a matter of whose horse can get going first – (Marshawn) Lynch or (Adrian) Peterson.”

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons – Open: Falcons -7, Move: -4

One online book opened this Sunday Night Football showdown as high as a touchdown. Most books are now dealing -4 with sharp bets coming in early on the Cowboys. Perry says they opened the spread at -5 and went to -5.5 before wise guys came back on Dallas. Sixty to 70 percent of the money is on the Falcons, however.

“As long as Dallas doesn’t shoot themselves in the foot, they can play with anyone in the league,” says Rood. “From a result perspective, nothing would shock me. I could see Dallas come out and stoke the Falcons by three touchdowns. And, I could see it be the complete opposite.”

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints – Open: Saints -3.5, Move: -3

Two struggling franchises take the Monday night spotlight, with the early money coming in on the Eagles and moving to the key number of a field goal.

“The sharks bit hard on this one at 3.5,” says Perry, “dropping the number to 3. Money is virtually down the middle, with 51 percent on the Saints.”

**Udog** · 11-02-2012, 10:01 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 9

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 9:

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 47.5)

Cowboys’ slow starts vs. Falcons fast first quarters

The Cowboys play their best football when behind on the scoreboard, which has kind of been the way all their games are going. Dallas ranks 30th in the NFL in first-quarter points, averaging just two per game, and was outscored 13-0 in the first quarter of last week’s loss to New York.

Atlanta, on the other hand, has stayed perfect in the standings thanks to its strong starts. The Falcons offense is averaging 6.7 points per first quarter – fourth in the NFL – and the team has trailed after one frame only once this season, outscoring foes 48-13 in the first quarter.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10, 47)

Bills’ run defense vs. Arian Foster

Buffalo’s defensive line might as well have a turnstile the way opposing teams are rushing through it. The Bills rank dead last in the league in defending the run, giving up 176.9 yards on the ground per game. They were gashed for 195 yards and two scores from Tennessee RB Chris Johnson last weekend. Buffalo has given up nearly two rushing touchdowns per game this season, another NFL worst.

Foster leads the league in scores on the ground, rumbling into the end zone 10 times and sits fifth in total rushing yards with 659. He’ll have plenty of fuel in the tank after a bye which followed a 98-yard, two-score performance against Baltimore in Week 7.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 38.5)

Sheltered Vikes vs. Soggy CenturyLink Field

Surprise, surprise. The extended forecast is calling for rain in Seattle. There’s a 50 percent chance of showers and game-time temperatures are expected to slip into the low 50s. Add to that environment the always-boisterous “12th Man” at CenturyLink Field, and the Vikes are in hostile territory in Week 9.

That shouldn’t phase a bunch of tough guys from Minnesota, except for the fact the Vikings are sheltered under the cozy confines of the Metrodome most weeks. Minnesota has played just one outdoor game this season – a 38-28 loss at Washington – and is 1-2 SU and ATS away from home this season.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52.5)

Eagles’ field position vs. Saints’ punting

Part of the Eagles’ struggles on offense has come from poor field position. Philadelphia ranks 31st in the league in starting field position, beginning drives at an average of the 24.9-yard line. In 83 possessions this year, the Eagles have started at their own 40-yard line of better just eight times. The Eagles rank third worst in punt return yardage (5.6 yards per return) and i26th in the NFL in kick return yards (20.2 yards per kick return).

The Saints aren’t doing a lot of things right but have been one of the best punting team in the NFL this season. New Orleans’ big boot Thomas Morstead boasts an average punt of 51.3 yards (second highest in the NFL) and the return coverage is keeping that at 46.4 average yards net on punts – tops in the league.

**Udog** · 11-02-2012, 11:02 PM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 9

Carolina at Washington (-3.5, 47)

The Panthers are trying to salvage a season that has gone awry because of five losses by six points or fewer. They've dropped five straight and QB Cam Newton is mired in a sophomore slump. Newton has thrown eight interceptions and only five touchdowns. The Washington defense has been dreadful this season, allowing more than 350 total yards in every game and more than 420 four times. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Arizona at Green Bay (-11, 43.5)

Arizona was among the league's biggest surprises after opening the campaign with four straight victories, but they have come to a screeching halt during their current four-game skid, scoring a total of three touchdowns and averaging only nine points per game during that span. The Packers are going for a fourth straight victory but are missing top receiver Greg Jennings (abdominal) and fellow wideout Jordy Nelson is nursing a hamstring injury. Green Bay has played over the total in four of its last five games and faces its lowest number of the season Sunday (43.5).

Detroit at Jacksonville (4, 44)

The Lions squeaked out a 28-24 decision over the Seahawks last week and look to post back-to-back wins for the first time against the Jaguars, who will try to avoid a five-game losing skid. Jacksonville put up 341 yards of total offense last week against Green Bay without star RB Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) and QB Blaine Gabbert threw for a season-high 303 yards and a score. Jacksonville also held the dangerous Green Bay offense to a season-low 238 total yards. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Chicago at Tennessee (3.5, 43.5)

Matt Hasselbeck will start at QB in place of the injured Jake Locker but will be going up against a Chicago defense that is tied for the league lead with 16 interceptions. Titans RB Chris Johnson has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the last three weeks and will try to take some pressure off Hasselbeck. However, the Bears’ stop unit is yielding a league-best 77.9 yards per game while forcing 12 fumbles this season. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Denver at Cincinnati (3.5, 47.5)

The Bengals must find a way to slow down Peyton Manning, who went 7-0 with 17 TDs and three INTs against Cincinnati as a member of the Colts. Manning has quieted some of his early-season critics by throwing 12 TDs while being picked off just once over the last four games. Denver may also get a boost on defense with the return of CB Tracy Porter, who has missed the last two games while dealing with the side effects from seizures. The Bengals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.

Baltimore at Cleveland (3.5, 42.5)

The Ravens are coming off a bye week and have emerged victorious in the last nine meetings against the Browns - including a 23-16 triumph on Sept. 27. Cleveland stood tall and held San Diego to just a pair of field goals in a 7-6 victory last Sunday. Rookie RB Trent Richardson showed no effects of a rib injury and gashed the Chargers for a season-best 122 yards and a TD. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last five games overall.

Buffalo at Houston (-10, 47.5)

Buffalo is ranked last in nearly every defensive statistic including allowing an NFL-leading 32.4 points per game. Led by Arian Foster, Houston’s elite running game could have its way with a Bills team that is allowing an average of 176 yards a game on the ground and has surrendered 937 yards rushing over their last four games. Buffalo DE Mario Williams underwent wrist surgery last week but expects to play in his return to Houston. The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.

Miami at Indianapolis (1, 43)

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill’s availability for this game is in question due to a bone bruise in his left knee but he was at practice on Wednesday, splitting snaps with backup Matt Moore. The Miami special teams unit was stellar in last week’s win over the Jets, becoming the first team in 20 years to block a punt, block a field goal and recover an onside kick. Andrew Luck is one 300-yard passing performance away from tying Peyton Manning’s rookie mark with four and has already helped double Indianapolis’ win total from last season. The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

Minnesota at Seattle (-4, 38.5)

The Seahawks suffered their second straight loss in gut-wrenching fashion, surrendering the winning touchdown with 20 seconds to play in last week's 28-24 loss at Detroit. Minnesota will be looking to rebound from an embarrassing 36-17 home loss to Tampa Bay, its second defeat in three games following a 4-1 start to the season. The Seahawks are 3-0 at home this season with impressive victories over Dallas, Green Bay and New England. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six at CenturyLink Field.

Tampa Bay at Oakland (-1, 46.5)

Bucs QB Josh Freeman has passed for 10 TDs against two INTs in his past four games and RB Doug Martin had his best professional game against the Vikings last week, totaling 214 yards from scrimmage. Raiders’ tailback Darren McFadden also had a breakout performance last week, running for a season-high 114 yards in Oakland’s 26-16 win over the Chiefs. Tampa Bay is 3-0 ATS on the road this season.

Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants (-3.5, 47.5)

Eli Manning and the Giants offense will be up against the NFL's top-rated pass defense that is allowing just 182.6 passing yards per game. Even more impressive is that the Pittsburgh stop unit is getting it done without star S Troy Polamalu, who is set to miss his fourth consecutive game with a strained right calf. The Steelers rushing attack could receive a massive boost this Sunday with the possible return of both Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) and Isaac Redman (ankle). Jonathan Dwyer has filled in admirably for the injured duo, racking up 229 yards on the ground in consecutive Steeler victories. Pittsburgh is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games.

Dallas at Atlanta (-4, 47.5)

The Falcons, who are the lone undefeated team in the league, are coming off a convincing 30-17 rout at Philadelphia in which QB Matt Ryan threw three TD passes on their first three possessions. The victory moved Atlanta to 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and padded its lead in the division to four games over Tampa Bay. However, the Falcons have been far from dominant at home this season, winning their three games by a total of 11 points. The turnover-riddled Cowboys erased a 23-0 deficit at home against the Giants last week before falling late to absorb their third loss in four games. The Cowboys have played under the total in six of their last seven road games.

Philadelphia at New Orleans (-3, 51.5)

Eagles coach Andy Reid is feeling the heat after his squad dropped its third straight game last Sunday and was mulling a quarterback change this week. But Michael Vick will resume his traditional role of starting, albeit after guiding a flat offense once again in a 30-17 loss to undefeated Atlanta. Vick will have a chance to break out of his slump against a New Orleans defense that has yielded an average of 474.7 yards per game – 50 yards more than the 31st-ranked Buffalo defense. The Saints are the first team to allow 400 yards in seven consecutive games since 1950. The teams have played over the total in their last five meetings.

**Udog** · 11-03-2012, 11:56 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 4

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Broncos at Bengals: What bettors need to know
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Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (4, 48)

It took him some time to shake off the rust of a year-long layoff, but Peyton Manning is officially back. The NFL’s only four-time MVP has the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos rolling and he’ll try to keep it going on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals, who return from their bye week looking to end a three-game skid. Despite banging his thumb on a helmet early, Manning was 22-of-30 for 305 yards and three touchdowns in a dominating 34-14 victory over the New Orleans.

Manning has passed for over 300 yards in a franchise-record five straight games. He’s also the first player to record four straight games of 300-plus yards and three touchdowns with a completion percentage over 70 percent. The Bengals have had a week to devise ways to slow down Manning, who went 7-0 with 17 touchdowns and three interceptions against Cincinnati with the Colts. Denver has won three straight and 12 of the last 14 meetings. Willis McGahee ran for 101 yards and a score in last season’s 24-22 victory in Denver.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Broncos -4, O/U 48.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the north at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-3): Manning has quieted some of his early-season critics by throwing for 12 touchdowns and just one interception over the last four games. He orchestrated an offense that amassed 300 yards passing and 200 yards rushing for the first time in six years against New Orleans. The team got a brief scare when Manning smacked his thumb on a defender’s helmet in the second quarter (he didn't miss a play). Willis McGahee had 122 of the Broncos’ season-best 225 rushing yards and the 31-year-old is proving he still has plenty in the tank (he’s 10th in the league with 554 yards). Denver’s defense, ranked 14th in scoring (21.7) after holding New Orleans in check, will be without CB Tracy Porter. Porter, who has missed the last two games while dealing with side effects from seizures, has resumed practicing but didn't travel with the team to Cincinnati.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (3-4): While Manning’s resurgence has sparked the Broncos, the Bengals have hit a lull after a hot start due to the struggles of second-year quarterback Andy Dalton. “The Red Rifle” has thrown six interceptions during the losing streak and was held to 105 yards in a 24-17 loss to Pittsburgh prior to the bye week – his lowest total since his pro debut. The Bengals rely heavily on Dalton and second-year wideout A.J. Green, who has scored in six straight games and is tied for the league lead in touchdowns (7), because the rushing attack has been non-existent. Cincinnati is 23rd in rushing (96.6) with BenJarvus Green-Ellis averaging a mere 3.4 yards per carry.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in Broncos’ last six road games.
* Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Denver has outscored opponents 69-14 over the last six quarters, starting with the magical Monday night comeback against San Diego on Oct. 15.

2. Cincinnati, ranked 16th against the pass (233.1), has allowed just one 300-yard game this season when Cleveland's Brandon Weeden threw for 322 yards in Week 2.

3. Normally reserved Bengals coach Marvin Lewis challenged Dalton to be more of a leader, saying he needed him to “grab this football team by the back of its neck and (say) 'Let's go. Let's move forward.' "

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**Udog** · 11-03-2012, 11:58 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 4

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Steelers at Giants: What bettors need to know
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Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3.5, 48)

Two playoff contenders clash Sunday afternoon when the resurgent Pittsburgh Steelers travel to New York to face the defending Super Bowl champion Giants. The Giants are in complete control of the NFC East after holding on to beat Dallas despite blowing a 23-point lead last week, but they have to make up some ground on undefeated Atlanta to work their way into position for the NFC's top seed.

The Steelers have won two straight by getting back to playing smash-mouth football. They've averaged 148.5 rushing yards the past two weeks and allowed just 220 total yards per game during that span. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger might mix things up and try to exploit a Giants defense that allowed 415 passing yards to Dallas last week. New York has won four of the past six meetings, including a 21-14 victory in the most recent clash in 2008.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Giants -3.5, O/U 48.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the north at 8 mph.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (4-3): The rise of Pittsburgh's run game has come on the shoulders of Jonathan Dwyer, who started the season as the third-string back but has taken over the featured role with injuries to Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) and Isaac Redman (ankle). Ironically, Dwyer (quad) has been limited in practice this week and is listed as doubtful - as is Mendenhall - but Redman is on track to play.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-2): New York's offense has been balanced and effective with Eli Manning leading the passing game and Ahmad Bradshaw and Andre Brown heading the ground game. The defense has given up big chunks of yardage but has done a solid job of keeping opponents out of the end zone thanks to 24 turnovers.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Giants are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Steelers’ last five road games.
* Under is 6-0 in Giants’ last six games following an ATS win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Steelers have allowed only one team to top 100 yards rushing (Oakland, 119) and have not allowed an opponent to pass for 300 yards.

2. The Giants are 10-0 when Bradshaw tops 100 rushing yards. He has averaged 102 yards in his past four games against AFC teams.

3. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is in position to earn his 60th career victory.

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**Udog** · 11-04-2012, 12:01 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 4

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Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Falcons
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Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 47.5)

Having turned the NFC South race into a runaway, the Atlanta Falcons will look to remain perfect when they host the enigmatic Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. The league's lone undefeated team, the Falcons are coming off convincing 30-17 rout at Philadelphia in which quarterback Matt Ryan threw touchdown passes on their first three possessions. The victory moved Atlanta to 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and padded its lead in the division to four games over Tampa Bay.

The turnover-riddled Cowboys erased a 23-0 deficit at home against the New York Giants before falling late to absorb their third loss in four games. Dallas has not put together a solid all-around effort since beating the Giants on the road in the season opener. Ryan is 29-5 as a starter at the Georgia Dome, but Atlanta has been far from dominant at home this season, winning its three games by a total of 11 points.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Falcons -4, O/U 47.5.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-4): Quarterback Tony Romo has always been a lightning rod for criticism, but it's been justified this season as he has turned the ball over at an alarming pace. Romo was intercepted four times against the Giants to give him an NFL-worst 13 - three more than he thew all last season. Romo also threw for a career-high 437 yards in the game and was within an out-of-bounds fingertip of giving Dallas consecutive wins for the first time this season. The running game has struggled all season and has been non-existent with DeMarco Murray missing the last two games. Murray (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (7-0): Atlanta is coming off its most impressive outing of the season, scoring on its first six possessions to dismantle the Eagles. Ryan had the third-highest passer rating of his career (137.4) in throwing for 262 yards and the three TDs. Julio Jones had his first 100-yard game since Week 1 with five catches for 123 yards and one touchdown. Ryan has thrived despite a running game that ranks 24th in the league at 95.0 yards per game. Veteran Michael Turner has failed to average more than three yards per carry in four of the seven games, but he continues to get a sizable number of carries as the Falcons seek to maintain balance in their offense.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in Cowboys’ last seven road games.
* Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 9 games.
* Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Falcons are 28-0 when Ryan has a passer rating above 100, including 5-0 this season.

2. The Cowboys ranked fourth overall in total defense (292.4 yards per game) and third against the pass (187.7).

3. Atlanta TE Tony Gonzalez needs one TD pass to reach 100 for his career.

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