Announcement

**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 08:47 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Some NFL trends to ponder, with Week 9 on the horizon........

-- Seattle is 16-6-1 vs spread in last 23 home games.

-- Chicago is 10-3-2 vs spread as a road favorite.

-- Dolphins covered eight of their last nine on the road.

-- Ravens covered eight of last nine post-bye games.

-- Houston is 9-3-1 vs spread in last 13 home games.

-- Saints covered four of last five on Monday Night Football.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.........

13) Maryland had four QB’s at start of season; all four are now hurt, which means a freshman linebacker, who played QB in high school LY but wasn’t recruited as a QB will now start for the Terps against Georgia Tech Saturday. Kind of hope that game is on TV.

12) Saturday is November 3, and Virginia Cavaliers (0-7-1) still haven’t covered a game this year; Colorado is a dismal 1-7 vs spread. On plus side, are Northwestern (8-1) and Ole Miss (7-1).

11) If/when Nick Foles plays for the Eagles, he’ll became the first Arizona Wildcat alum to play QB in an NFL game since the immortal Bill Demory went 12-39 passing for the Jets in 1973-74.

10) NFL pushed the trading deadline back from Tuesday til Thursday afternoon, because NFL offices are closed Tuesday due to the hurricane. It might have to be pushed back further.

9) Over last five games, Giants have outsacked opponents 15-2; they have 13 takeaways (+9) in their last three games.

8) Dallas is 3-4; they’ve allowed a TD on offense/special teams in all four losses, and haven’t allowed one in any of the wins.

7) Do what you will with this information: Tony Romo’s career record in November: 19-2, with six straight wins.

6) Eagles haven’t started a drive in enemy territory since Week 2 vs Ravens; since then, opponents have started seven drives in Philly territory.

5) Carolina Panthers lost their last five games, last four all by 5 or less points; they’ve lost average field position by average of 7.4 yards a game, a decent amount. Only game they won field position, they won the game, too.

4) David Letterman taped his show Monday night without a studio audience, in deference to the hurricane; was odd hearing jokes told with no laughter. Denzel Washington was a guest, braving the elements to make it to the CBS studio in Manhattan.

3) Jim Leyland and all his coaches got a 1-year extension from the Tigers; Detroit gets Victor Martinez back next year, figures to be a strong team again, maybe even a little stronger.

2) Manu Ginobili missed half the Spurs’ games LY and is hurt again at start of this year; he makes $14M+ a year. Good thing he was healthy enough to play in the Olympics this past summer.

1) Nine youth football coaches or associates in South Florida are facing felony charges in connection with gambling on youth football.

As much as $20,000 was bet in one rivalry game a few weeks ago, and up to $100,000 has been wagered on the youth leagues' final championship games of the season. These are kids 15 years old and younger.

Those arrested could face as much as five years in prison.

**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 08:48 AM

NBA
Dunkel

San Antonio at New Orleans
The Hornets look to build on their 9-0 ATS record in their last 9 home games. New Orleans is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by just 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+7). Here are all of today's picks

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 31

Game 701-702: Indiana at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 118.241; Toronto 119.511
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 188
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+3); Over

Game 703-704: Denver at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 123.277; Philadelphia 120.216
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 3; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+2); Under

Game 705-706: Houston at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 113.847; Detroit 118.563
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 4 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 2 1/2; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2 1/2); Under

Game 707-708: San Antonio at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 126.115; New Orleans 121.602
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 188
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+7); Over

Game 709-710: Sacramento at Chicago (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 115.537; Chicago 124.183
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 8 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 6 1/2; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-6 1/2); Under

Game 711-712: Dallas at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 117.411; Utah 123.463
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 6; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 8 1/2; 189
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+8 1/2); Over

Game 713-714: Golden State at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 116.657; Phoenix 116.776
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 200
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+3); Over

Game 715-716: Memphis at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 119.576; LA Clippers 125.133
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-3 1/2); Under

Game 717-718: LA Lakers at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 116.546; Portland 115.546
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1; 195
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 08:49 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 31

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INDIANA (48 - 29) at TORONTO (23 - 43) - 10/31/2012, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-3 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 5-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (41 - 32) at PHILADELPHIA (42 - 37) - 10/31/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 40-24 ATS (+13.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-41 ATS (-27.1 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (34 - 32) at DETROIT (25 - 41) - 10/31/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 241-189 ATS (+33.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (60 - 20) at NEW ORLEANS (21 - 45) - 10/31/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 57-40 ATS (+13.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 50-27 ATS (+20.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 6-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (22 - 44) at CHICAGO (52 - 20) - 10/31/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 98-71 ATS (+19.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-0 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (36 - 34) at UTAH (36 - 34) - 10/31/2012, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 264-209 ATS (+34.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) in road games against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 7-1 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 7-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (23 - 43) at PHOENIX (33 - 33) - 10/31/2012, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 5-2 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 5-2 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (44 - 29) at LA CLIPPERS (44 - 33) - 10/31/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 59-88 ATS (-37.8 Units) against Southwest division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 7-6 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 8-6 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (46 - 32) at PORTLAND (28 - 38) - 10/31/2012, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 4-3 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 5-2 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 08:49 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 31

Its too early to get crazy with investing here, but what else is there to do? No football til Thursday, damn kids ringing the bell, asking for free candy. Here is some NBA information.......best of luck to you.

Obviously, no one is hot/cold right now; these are LY's numbers......

Hot Teams
-- 76ers won 11 of last 18 games. Nuggets won 11 of their last 17.
-- Hornets won six of their last nine games.
-- Bulls covered six of their last eight home games.
-- Grizzlies are 9-4 in their last thirteen games.

Cold Teams
-- Pacers lost their last three games LY, allowing 107 ppg. Raptors lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Pistons lost eight of their last 12 games. Houston lost seven of nine.
-- Spurs lost last four games in playoffs LY, after having won previous 20 games in a row before that.
-- Kings lost seven of last ten games, but covered last three.
-- Mavericks lost their last six games LY, but beat the Lakers easily last night. Jazz got swept in playoffs LY, 4-0 by the Spurs.
-- Warriors lost 10 of their last 11 games. Suns lost four of five.
-- Clippers lost six of their last seven games LY.
-- Lakers are vastly different team now, but they're 7-11 in last 18 games that counted. If you count exhibition games, Lakers are 0-9 this season. Portland lost its last seven games.

Totals
-- Six of last eight Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in Philly's last ten home games.
-- 12 of last 15 Detroit games went over the total.
-- Four of Spurs' last five games went over total.
-- Four of last five Sacramento games went over.
-- Last six Utah games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Golden State games.
-- Five of last seven Clipper games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine Portland home games went over total.

Last Year's Series Records
-- Pacers were 3-0 vs Toronto LY, with all three wins by five points.
-- Nuggets won here, 108-104 in OT, in only meeting LY.
-- Pistons lost 97-80 at Houston in LY's meeting.
-- Spurs were 4-0 vs New Orleans LY, winning by 2-3 points here.
-- Bulls beat Sacramento twice LY, by 10-6 points.
-- Dallas won three of four vs Jazz LY, with two games in Utah decided by total of five points.
-- Warriors won two of three against Phoenix LY.
-- Clippers beat Memphis in seven games in playoffs last spring.
-- Home side won all three Laker-Portland games LY; LA lost 107-96 in their only visit here.

**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 08:50 AM

NBA

Wednesday, October 31

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
INDIANA vs. TORONTO
Indiana is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Indiana is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Toronto is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indiana

7:00 PM
DENVER vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. DETROIT
Houston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Detroit is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Houston

8:00 PM
SACRAMENTO vs. CHICAGO
Sacramento is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chicago's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Sacramento

8:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. NEW ORLEANS
San Antonio is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games
New Orleans is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing San Antonio

9:00 PM
DALLAS vs. UTAH
Dallas is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Utah's last 19 games when playing at home against Dallas

10:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Golden State's last 9 games on the road
Golden State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing Golden State
Phoenix is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Golden State

10:30 PM
LA LAKERS vs. PORTLAND
The total has gone OVER in 7 of the LA Lakers last 9 games when playing on the road against Portland
LA Lakers are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Portland is 11-2 SU in their last 13 games when playing at home against LA Lakers

10:30 PM
MEMPHIS vs. LA CLIPPERS
Memphis is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Memphis is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing Memphis
LA Clippers are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games when playing Memphis

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**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 11:46 AM

NBA

Wednesday, October 31

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Lakers at Trail Blazers: What bettors need to know
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Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers (+4, 191.5)

The Los Angeles Lakers seek to bounce back from a highly disappointing season debut when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday. The Lakers brought in center Dwight Howard and point guard Steve Nash in the offseason after back-to-back second-round playoff exits but the star-studded Lakers lost 99-91 while being outplayed by all the role players on the Dallas Mavericks. Portland has a new coach in Terry Stotts and an impressive rookie in point guard Damian Lillard.

The Trail Blazers finished 10 games below .500 last season and have a new general manager in Neil Olshey in addition to a new coach in Stotts, who was an assistant with the Dallas Mavericks. Forward LaMarcus Aldridge remains Portland’s top cog. Los Angeles guard Kobe Bryant played in the opener despite a painful foot injury and it remains to be seen how spry he will be for an early-season back-to-back. Howard had 19 points and 10 rebounds but was a woeful 3-for-14 from the free-throw line.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, Time Warner Cable SportsNet (Los Angeles), Comcast SportsNet Northwest (Portland), NBATV

LINE: Los Angeles opened as a 4-point road favorite. The total is set at 191.5.

ABOUT THE LAKERS (0-1, 0-1 ATS): Nash had a poor outing in his Los Angeles debut with just seven points and four assists. He never seemed to fully get in the flow while being outplayed by Dallas counterpart Darren Collison. “Obviously, it was a disappointing night for us,” Nash said. “We have high expectations and we didn’t play well. It wasn’t good enough.” The 38-year-old Nash and Bryant are still searching for a comfort level due to the injury Bryant suffered in the preseason.

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (2011-12: 28-38): Lillard was the sixth overall pick in June’s draft and he stood out in the preseason by leading all rookies with a 16.2 average. There has been chatter about him being a top candidate for Rookie of the Year honors. “I don’t feel like I have anything else to prove to people as far as me belonging in the league,” Lillard said. “I just want to keep getting better. My only goal is to keep improving myself so I can help my team win games.”

TRENDS:

* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Portland.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 23-10 ATS in the last 33 meetings.
* Lakers are 11-28 ATS in the last 39 meetings.
* Lakers are 4-17 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Portland.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Portland has won 16 of its last 20 home games against the Lakers.

2. The Lakers shot just 38.7 percent (12-of-31) from the free-throw line in the loss to Dallas.

3. Aldridge averaged 25 points and nine rebounds in three games against Los Angeles last season.

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**Udog** · 10-31-2012, 11:50 AM

Football lines that make you go hmmm...

I’m not sure what the slogan is for the Mid-American Conference or if it even has one. But among the betting community, the MAC is known as the place where the sharps hang out.

Every Sunday night, sportsbooks open the lines for college football’s upcoming slate and each week there are a handful of MAC games with odds jumping all over the board. If you ask someone in the know, they’ll tell you there are only three or four wagers on those games, but all of them were limit plays from well-respected handicappers.

Sharps are drawn to the mystery of the MAC. While BCS conferences get constant media coverage and the most care from the oddsmakers, smaller conferences – like the MAC – have softer lines and team news is a little harder to come by. If you’re willing to put in the work, there is value to be had in betting the MAC.

One of the MAC lines already on the move this week is the spread for Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo. The Redhawks (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS), coming off a huge upset over then-undefeated Ohio, are as big as 4-point road underdogs visiting the Bulls, who have just one win this season.

At first glance, this spread seems to be on the wrong side, with Buffalo picking up its only win against an FCS program. However, a closer look at the Bulls’ opponents may clear up the confusion.

Buffalo has faced an uphill climb all season, with its seven FBS opponents posting a combined record of 44-14 SU and featuring five one-loss teams - the only exceptions being Big East programs Pitt and UConn. Buffalo has also been an underdog in all but one of those FBS contests, giving 3-points to Kent State in Week 4.

The Bulls also returned star RB Bo Oliver – arguably the most explosive player in the MAC - in a 25-20 loss to Toledo last weekend. He rushed for 101 yards in his first game since suffering a knee sprain in that loss to the Golden Flashes in mid September.

Sharp MAC money has already moved this week's spread off the key number of -3 at post and took it as high as -4.5 before some buyback came in on Miami (Ohio).

Here are some other spreads making football bettors go “hmmm…” as we head into the weekend:

NCAAF

Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-6.5, 67)

It’s been a while since the Red Raiders were handing the points to their hated rivals, the Longhorns. In fact, the last time Texas Tech was a favorite versus Texas was in 2004. Remember 2004? This is what 2004 looked like…ugh

The Horns hooked the Red Raiders for a 51-21 thrashing as 2.5-point road underdogs in that game, led by dynamic QB Vince Young and stud RB Cedric Benson. This year's version of Texas football doesn’t have the horses like the 2004 squad, but is still a dangerous team (averaging 41.5 points – eighth in the land).

NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders (-1, 45.5)

The Bucs have been one of the best bets of the NFL season and finally managed to win and cover by exposing the Minnesota Vikings on national TV last Thursday, winning 36-17 as 5.5-point road underdogs.

Tampa Bay has been oh-so close in plenty of games this year, taking the fight to New York, Dallas Washington and New Orleans, and is much better than its 3-4 SU record suggests. But, books are expecting a letdown from the Buccaneers when they travel cross country to face the Raiders in Week 9.

Oakland is coming off back-to-back wins over Jacksonville and Kansas City, which means about as much as a Lindsay Lohan stint in rehab. Someone had to win those games. The Silver and Black have been faves three times this year and have failed to cover in all three.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+3.5, 42.5)

Cleveland is playing better – we’ll be the first to admit that. But considering how bad the Browns have been there was nowhere to go but up.

They shocked the NFL with a 7-6 win over the San Diego Chargers and a hat tip goes out to the weather in Ohio which shackled Philip Rivers and the Bolts' attack. If the teams weren’t playing in the middle of a mud hole, the outcome would have definitely been different.

The Browns better hope for more wind, rain and slop when the rival Ravens come to town Sunday. Baltimore (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) had a bye week to lick its wounds after a nasty loss to Houston and tries to get back on track, with its sights set at the AFC’s top seed.

The Ravens failed to cover as 11.5-point home faves versus the Browns in Week 4 but have come away with the cash in their last four trips to Cleveland.

Announcement

Wednesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/31 (NBA, NCAAB, CFL, Misc.)

Wednesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/31 (NBA, NCAAB, CFL, Misc.)

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