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**Udog** · 10-28-2012, 10:16 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks and six least popular picks in LVH handicapping contest, which has 700+ contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........

6) New Orleans Saints, 172
5) San Diego Chargers, 206
4) Miami Dolphins, 216
3) Washington Redskins, 220
2) New Jersey Giants, 295
1) Philadelphia Eagles, 303

26) Cleveland Browns, 83
27) Pittsburgh Steelers, 81
28) Tennessee Titans, 79
29) Chicago Bears, 73
30) St Louis Rams, 68
31) Jacksonville Jaguars, 31

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday.....

13) USC’s 39-36 loss at Arizona really helps Kansas State, since Oregon/Notre Dame still have to play the Trojans, so it’ll put a crimp in their strength of schedule. What happens if Alabama-Oregon-Notre Dame-Kansas State all win out? Chaos, that’s what.

12) If you had NC State +7.5 at North Carolina Saturday, you might be the victim of worst bad beat in college football history. State led 35-32 until UNC tied the game with 1:24 left, then when Wolfpack punted after a 3-and-out, Giovani Bernard ran the punt back 74 yards for the winning TD with 0:13 left. But you had the Wolfpack +7.5, right?

For some unknown reason, UNC’s punter fakes the PAT and the Tar Heels get two points and the cover!!!

Carolina coach Larry Fedora has some ‘splaining to do, people. I didn’t have either side in the game, but it appears as if Carolina was blatantly trying to beat the pointspread, no?

11) USC WR Marquis Lee caught 16 passes for 345 yards; the other Trojans caught 15 for 148. But Arizona upset the Trojans 39-36, forcing five USC turnovers (+4), in a penalty-marred game (total of 27 penalties for 246 yards).

Big win for Rich Rodriguez’ team, which trailed 21-13 at the half.

10) Florida-Georgia was another flagfest (24 penalties for 227 yards), and a very sloppy game to boot, with far too much yapping between players. 539 total yards, 227 penalty yards, but Georgia beat Florida for the second year in row, 17-9. Big win for Mark Richt.

9) Texas A&M 63, Auburn 21, at Auburn. Aggies play a freshman QB, but Auburn is in total freefall. As long as Nick Saban is running amok with th Crimson Tide, the Auburn job is a death trap. They won the national title two years ago, and will probably change coaches this winter.

8) Washington Huskies might be weirdest team in America; they upset Oregon State 20-17, their second top 10 upset of the year, but they’ve also lost three games by 30+ points. Hard to figure, but at 4-4, and with Utah-Colorado-Cal-Wazzu left to play, Washington figures to go bowling.

7) In the NBA, Oklahoma City traded James Harden to Houston in a six-player deal; San Antonio Spurs are only team in league that didn’t make a trade this offseason.

6) Rutgers was unbeaten, until bowl-bound Kent State of MAC outrushed them 224-96 and upset the Knights 35-23. Rutgers threw six INTs, was -5 in turnovers, so its easy to see how they lost.

5) Michigan QB Denard Robinson left (elbow) with an injury in second quarter; his replacement was 3-16 for 38 yards passing, as Wolverines got beat 23-9 at Nebraska.

How does Michigan not have a QB who can pass?

4) Big day for two kick returners; Utah’s Reggie Dunn had a couple of 100-yard TDs on kick returns; UCF’s Quincy McDuffie had kick return TDs of 97/98 yards, as both teams had decisive wins.

3) South Florida led 23-3 at halftime over Syracuse, but fell apart in second half and lost on the last play, 37-36, their sixth loss in a row. Bulls had 369 rushing yards and still lost.

2) Would’ve been nice to see Oregon State-Washington game, but DirecTV doesn’t have the Pas-12 Network. Does it help a league to have its games hidden from a big chunk of the country?

1) Our thoughts and prayers to South Carolina RB Marcus Lattimore, who hurt his knee Saturday, an injury that appeared to be very serious. Get well soon, young man.

**Udog** · 10-28-2012, 10:17 AM

NASCAR betting: TUMS Fast Relief 500 preview

If the last visit to Martinsville Speedway is any indication, Sunday’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Series TUMS Fast Relief 500 could shake up the points standings more than any of the Chase races to date.

In April, Chase drivers Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer and Jeff Gordon tangled on the last restart. The trio went from the front of the field to outside the Top 10. Should a similar scenario play out this Sunday, the thin margins among those at the top of the Chase standings could be even thinner.

Brad Keselowski has raced - and survived - to maintain his lead in the standings thus far. He escaped a huge points loss at Kansas due primarily to the misfortunes of others last week. Keselowski's stats here don’t bode well for him and Martinsville could be his Achilles' heel.

In his last five races at Martinsville, Keselowski has only finished inside the Top 10 once. That was in the spring race, when he finished ninth after the leaders crashed out. This could be another week when he hopes just to survive.

Jimmie Johnson has six wins here - second most among the Top 12 drivers. He was in position for the win in April before disaster struck. As last week at Kansas proved, though, Johnson’s lucky horseshoe is back and he could be tough to beat Sunday.

“It should be a good track for us,” Johnson told reporters. “We did the 2013 test a month or so ago, so we’ve been on the track recently; and granted the cars aren’t the same so it will be different, but at least we’ve had some laps on the track. We’ve done a little short track testing that should pay off and make us more competitive. I feel like it’s a good opportunity for us to get points and hopefully if we’re not in the points lead, we can get awfully close to it or take it there.”

Denny Hamlin could be another driver that will be tough to beat this week. He has three wins in the last six races here, but hasn’t been to victory lane since 2010. He was sixth in the spring and fifth in this race last season last year. Hamlin has been a little quiet in the last few races; this could be the week he finally makes some noise.

Clint Bowyer has been the surprise of the Chase and that could continue this week. Bowyer was running in the lead group in April when he was caught up in the final melee and scored 10th. He was 19th in this race last year, but unlike last year he’s with a new team and a new crew chief Brian Pattie. Pattie has led his team to championship form this season and that could continue Sunday.

“Martinsville is really a little more like Atlanta in terms of strategy – usually the best cars run up front,” Pattie said.”It can go green for a long time and the tires are worth something. You have to have forward bite and be really good in the center. The place is so short that two tires can be worth a couple tenths which is huge on a racetrack like Martinsville. I’m glad we are going to a track that the tires matter. At the end of the race the strategies are all over the board, but the same guys always run up front there and it’s always the fastest guys from practice. Hopefully we are one of those guys. I’m really looking forward to it. Our new car is really a hot rod and looks really good, so hopefully she runs good too.”

Kasey Kahne has been struggling lately and his record at Martinsville indicates that those struggles might continue. He started from the pole in the spring but a blown engine relegated him to a 38th finished. Prior to that, he finished outside the top ten in last six races here. In only his second race here with Hendrick Motorsports he could reverse that trend, he certainly had the speed in the spring, but don’t be surprised if Kahne finishes outside the top ten once again.

Martin Truex Jr. was fifth here in the spring, and eighth last season. He’ll need to bank on that recent success if he hopes to finish strong Sunday. In the five races prior to the last two, Truex has finished outside the top twenty in four. He’s never won at Martinsville and that probably won’t change Sunday, but he could score a much needed top five finish.

Tony Stewart is the defending winner of this race and was seventh in the spring. The three races prior to that though Stewart finished outside the top 20. Stewart’s win last October was a hard earned battle that saw him nearly lose a lap. Stewart used sheer determination and some great pit work to come back and win. If he displays that kind of grit Sunday, Stewart could go all the way.

Jeff Gordon had a great race in the spring despite the finish and overall has a pretty solid record at Martinsville. He was third here last season and fifth last spring. His record of top fives in five of the six races prior bodes well for him and could see him near the front Sunday.

Matt Kenseth was fourth here in the spring but 31st in this race last year, sixth last spring. Prior to that he had finishes outside the top 10 in five of the last six races at Martinsville. But coming off the win last week, his third of the season and his second in the Chase, Kenseth could be a dark horse and could be a surprise Sunday.

Kevin Harvick has been relatively silent during the Chase. This could be his week to make some noise however. Sure he was 19th here in the spring, but he won this race last spring and was fourth in this race last year. If Harvick hopes to be noticed in the Chase this could be his best race to date to do just that.

Greg Biffle looked strong last week at Kansas until meeting with the outside wall. He tumbled in the standings, and heads to Martinsville hoping for redemption. Unfortunately his past stats don’t bode well. In the last six races here, Biffle finished outside the top ten in five. If he’s looking for redemption he’ll have trouble finding it here.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is back in the game after two weeks on the bench while he nursed a concussion. Martinsville isn’t a bad place for Earnhardt to return. He was third here in the spring and had solid finishes prior to that with a seventh in this race last year and a second last spring.

Non-Chasers
Carl Edwards has never won here, but he was 11th in the spring and ninth in this race last season. Edwards has been searching for a win, and this could be the race where this underdog scores a shocking victory.

AJ Allmendinger was second here in the spring. He ran strong nearly all day and seemed to be very comfortable with the short track style of racing. Yes he’s with a different team but at a track where speed isn’t necessarily king, Allmendinger could be a surprise.

Bottom line: 19 races have been won from the pole, the last by Denny Hamlin in October 2010. Kurt Busch won the 2002 fall race from the 36th starting position, the furthest back a race winner has started.

Favorites:
Jimmie Johnson
Tony Stewart
Jeff Gordon

Non-Chase
Carl Edwards
AJ Allmendinger

Odds to win TUMS Fast Relief 500 (Courtesy of JustBet)

Denny Hamlin 7-2
Jimmie Johnson 4-1
Jeff Gordon 7-1
Tony Stewart 8-1
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Kyle Busch 10-1
Kasey Kahne 12-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12-1
Clint Bowyer 15-1
Kevin Harvick 18-1
Martin Truex Jr. 18-1
Ryan Newman 25-1
Joey Lagano 40-1
Matt Kenseth 40-1
Greg Biffle 40-1
Carl Edwards 40-1
Brian Vickers 50-1
Paul Menard 100-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-1
Juan Montoya 100-1
Jeff Burton 100-1
Aric Almirola 100-1
Jamie McMurray 100-1
Kurt Busch 100-1
Sam Hornish, Jr. 200-1
David Gilliland 300-1
Travis Kvapil 300-1
Bobby Labonte 300-1
Regan Smith 300-1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50-1

**Udog** · 10-28-2012, 10:18 AM

CFL
Dunkel

Edmonton at Montreal
The Alouettes look to take advantage of an Edmonton team that is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. Montreal is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-4 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28

Game 297-298: Edmonton at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 111.300; Montreal 117.692
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 6 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Montreal by 4 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-4 1/2); Under

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 18

Sunday, October 28

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EDMONTON (7 - 9) at MONTREAL (10 - 6) - 10/28/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in home games in October games since 1996.
MONTREAL is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 5-0 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 5-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 18

Home (35-29). Favorites (27-36), Over (31-31-2). West 20-10 vs East.
Home underdogs are 12-5 in the CFL this season.

Edmonton (7-9) @ Montreal (10-6)-- Alouettes have quietly gone 8-3 in last 11 and are tied for second-best record in league; they beat Eskimos 38-25 (+1) on road back in Week 8, outgaining hosts 452-272 in game they led 28-8 at half. Montreal is 4-4 as a home favorite this year, winning home games by 11-1-12-5-11-21 points, losing to Argos/Bombers. Edmonton lost its last three away games by average score of 43-14 (0-3 vs spread); they're 3-4 as road underdogs. Last four Eskimo games went over the total. Game means lot more to Edmonton than it does the Alouettes.

CFL

Week 18

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
EDMONTON vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games on the road
Edmonton is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Montreal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games

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CFL

Week 18

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Canadian Bacon: Week 18 CFL betting preview
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With only two games remaining on the regular season schedule, the drive to the postseason continues for CFL teams in Week 18.

Edmonton Eskimos at Montreal Alouettes (-4.5, 52.5)

The Montreal Alouettes have already locked up top spot in the Eastern Division after their 34-28 victory over Saskatchewan last week and will host the division finals game on Nov. 18. The Als may go into cruise control in the final two weeks but that doesn’t mean they will rest their veteran QB Anthony Calvillo. “I don’t want to have the players looking at me saying ‘Oh, he is taking a day off because he is 40 years old,’” Calvillo said Thursday.

The Eskimos hold a tie-breaker over Saskatchewan and have to win at least one of their last two games on the schedule in order to secure a cross-over spot in the playoffs. Edmonton also has a chance to sneak into the postseason if Hamilton and Winnipeg both split their final two games. Montreal won the only prior meeting this season back on Aug. 17 by a score of 38-25, as Calvillo threw for 327 yards and four TDs. The Als have taken five in a row from Edmonton, which failed to cover the spread in all five of those losses.

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**Udog** · 10-28-2012, 10:24 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 28

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SAN FRANCISCO (104 - 73) at DETROIT (95 - 79) - 8:05 PM
MATT CAIN (R) vs. MAX SCHERZER (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 (+4.0 Units) against DETROIT this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

MATT CAIN vs. DETROIT since 1997
No recent starts.

MAX SCHERZER vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
SCHERZER is 1-3 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 5.12 and a WHIP of 1.396.
His team's record is 1-3 (-3.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)

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MLB
Short Sheet

Sunday, October 28

World Series, Game Four (San Francisco Leads, 3-0)
San Francisco at Detroit, 8:05 ET FOX
Cain: San Francisco 13-3 SU off a combined score of 3 runs or less
Scherzer: Detroit 9-2 Over off 3+ losses

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, October 28

Detroit is first team since 1966 to get shut out in consecutive World Series games; they've won eight of last nine home games, are 4-1 at home in playoffs, allowing total of nine runs, but no one has ever come back from down 3-0 to win a World Series. Giants won their last six games by the combined score of 32-4. Cain is 2-2, 3.52 in four playoff starts; he finished sixth inning in only one of his last five starts. Scherzer is 1-0, 1.64 in two playoff starts, 6-1, 1.52 in all games since August 15. Under is 9-3-1 in last dozen Detroit games, 5-9-1 in last fifteen San Francisco games. Not impossible to come back from down in a series 3-0, '04 Red Sox did it, but its never been done in a World Series.

MLB

Sunday, October 28

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World Series Game 4 betting preview: Giants at Tigers
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San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers (-150, 6.5)

Giants lead series 3-0

Series odds: Giants -1200, Tigers +850

The San Francisco Giants attempt to complete a four-game sweep and capture their second World Series championship in three years Sunday, when they take on the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. San Francisco, which faced elimination six times this postseason, has put Detroit in a similar position after posting back-to-back 2-0 victories. The Giants became the first team to record consecutive shutouts in the World Series since 1966, when the Baltimore Orioles blanked the Los Angeles Dodgers three straight times.

After sweeping the New York Yankees in the American League Championship Series, the Tigers sat for five days while waiting for their next opponent. The layoff has affected them offensively as they have scored only three runs over the first three games of the series and have registered a total of seven hits over the last two contests. Detroit sluggers Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder have gone a combined 3-for-19. The Tigers now look to join the 2004 Boston Red Sox as the only teams in major-league history to overcome a 3-0 playoff series deficit. Boston accomplished the feat against the Yankees in the ALCS.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, FOX

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s under cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 16 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants RH Matt Cain (2-2, 3.52 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Max Scherzer (1-0, 0.82)

Cain is coming off his best performance of the postseason, a triumph over St. Louis in Game Seven of the National League Championship Series in which he scattered five hits over 5 2/3 scoreless innings. The 28-year-old went 1-2 while allowing three runs in each of his previous three playoff starts. Cain, who was 8-2 in 17 regular-season road outings and has gone 1-1 away from home this postseason, has never faced Detroit in his career.

Scherzer has not pitched since Oct. 18, when he yielded one run and two hits while striking out 10 in 5 2/3 innings as the Tigers completed a four-game sweep of the New York Yankees in the ALCS. The 28-year-old was just as effective in Game Four of the AL Division Series against Oakland, yielding an unearned run and three hits in 5 1/3 frames while settling for a no-decision. Scherzer has not fared well versus San Francisco in his career, going 1-3 with a 5.12 ERA in four starts.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1-1 in Scherzer’s last six starts overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Giants’ last five World Series road games.
* Giants are 6-2 in Cain’s last eight road starts.
* Tigers are 0-6 in their last six World Series games.

UMP TRENDS- Brian O’Nora

* Under is 17-4-1 in O'Noras last 22 games behind home plate.
* Road team is 4-1 in O'Noras last five games behind home plate.
* Road team is 4-1 in O'Noras last five interleague games behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. San Francisco has won a franchise-record six consecutive playoff games and has not trailed in any of them.

2. Detroit was shut out only twice during the regular season. It has been blanked three times already this postseason.

3. The Tigers have lost six straight World Series games dating back to 2006

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**Udog** · 10-28-2012, 11:33 AM

MLB
Dunkel

San Francisco at Detroit
The Giants look to close out the series and build on their 9-2 record in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150. San Francisco is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28

Game 907-908: San Francisco at Detroit (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 18.207; Detroit (Scherzer) 16.779
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125); Over

Announcement

Sunday's Trends and Indexes - 10/28 (MLB, CFL, Misc.)

Sunday's Trends and Indexes - 10/28 (MLB, CFL, Misc.)

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