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**Udog** · 10-26-2012, 08:38 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Some college football trends to peruse, with Week 8 upon us........

-- Ohio U covered five of last six games against Miami.

-- Oregon is 19-9-2 vs spread in last 30 Pac-12 home games.

-- Vanderbilt covered five of last six as a home favorite.

-- Wisconsin won 11 of last 13 as a home favorite.

-- Northwestern covered five of last seven games with Iowa.

-- Wyoming covered six of last seven as a double digit underdog.

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things to look for this weekend..........

13) 6-0 Falcons are getting points at turnover-prone Philly; Andy Reid has never lost coming off a regular season bye. Michael Vick vs his old team. Matt Ryan vs his hometown team. Interesting.

12) Florida is favored to beat Georgia for 19th time in last 23 years, but they may have to actually throw the ball here, something they haven’t done much in their last three wins.

11) World Series moves to the Motor City; Tigers have to win at least two of next three to take it back to San Francisco.

10) Unbeaten Oregon State is only -4.5 at Washington, which lost 52-17 at Arizona last week. Sounds like a trap game for the Beavers.

9) Will the Patriots utilize Scotland Yard to spy on the Rams’ practices in London? Don't laugh; they've spied on the Rams before.

8) San Diego heads east to Cleveland, knowing there will be changes if they don’t start winning soon. As for the Browns, they probably already know change is on the way.

7) Notre Dame is driven by defense; Oklahoma is by far the best passing team they’ve faced so far. Good primetime game for ABC.

6) Dolphins ran ball well in their first game with the Jets, until Reggie Bush got hurt. Jets won in OT; can Miami pull an upset in the rematch?

5) Ohio State-Penn State are two best teams in Big Dozen; too bad neither one can go to a bowl game this year. No one coaches other people’s recruits better than Urban Meyer.

4) Giants won shootouts in their last three visits to Dallas; they have revenge motive here, after losing season opener to Cowboys at home. Dallas looks confused a lot during games, often at key times.

3) Can unbeaten Mississippi State keep it close at Alabama? Can anyone? Bulldogs are unbeaten and getting 24 points here.

2) Raiders-Chiefs are both desperate for wins, but Oakland won its last five visits here. Brady Quinn is now 3-10 as an NFL starter.

1) Saints-Broncos should be fun Sunday night. Brees-Manning. Saints beat the Manning-less Colts 62-7 LY. Check the Denver weather if you’re investing in the over.

**Udog** · 10-26-2012, 08:38 AM

NASCAR betting: TUMS Fast Relief 500 preview

If the last visit to Martinsville Speedway is any indication, Sunday’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Series TUMS Fast Relief 500 could shake up the points standings more than any of the Chase races to date.

In April, Chase drivers Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer and Jeff Gordon tangled on the last restart. The trio went from the front of the field to outside the Top 10. Should a similar scenario play out this Sunday, the thin margins among those at the top of the Chase standings could be even thinner.

Brad Keselowski has raced - and survived - to maintain his lead in the standings thus far. He escaped a huge points loss at Kansas due primarily to the misfortunes of others last week. Keselowski's stats here don’t bode well for him and Martinsville could be his Achilles' heel.

In his last five races at Martinsville, Keselowski has only finished inside the Top 10 once. That was in the spring race, when he finished ninth after the leaders crashed out. This could be another week when he hopes just to survive.

Jimmie Johnson has six wins here - second most among the Top 12 drivers. He was in position for the win in April before disaster struck. As last week at Kansas proved, though, Johnson’s lucky horseshoe is back and he could be tough to beat Sunday.

“It should be a good track for us,” Johnson told reporters. “We did the 2013 test a month or so ago, so we’ve been on the track recently; and granted the cars aren’t the same so it will be different, but at least we’ve had some laps on the track. We’ve done a little short track testing that should pay off and make us more competitive. I feel like it’s a good opportunity for us to get points and hopefully if we’re not in the points lead, we can get awfully close to it or take it there.”

Denny Hamlin could be another driver that will be tough to beat this week. He has three wins in the last six races here, but hasn’t been to victory lane since 2010. He was sixth in the spring and fifth in this race last season last year. Hamlin has been a little quiet in the last few races; this could be the week he finally makes some noise.

Clint Bowyer has been the surprise of the Chase and that could continue this week. Bowyer was running in the lead group in April when he was caught up in the final melee and scored 10th. He was 19th in this race last year, but unlike last year he’s with a new team and a new crew chief Brian Pattie. Pattie has led his team to championship form this season and that could continue Sunday.

“Martinsville is really a little more like Atlanta in terms of strategy – usually the best cars run up front,” Pattie said.”It can go green for a long time and the tires are worth something. You have to have forward bite and be really good in the center. The place is so short that two tires can be worth a couple tenths which is huge on a racetrack like Martinsville. I’m glad we are going to a track that the tires matter. At the end of the race the strategies are all over the board, but the same guys always run up front there and it’s always the fastest guys from practice. Hopefully we are one of those guys. I’m really looking forward to it. Our new car is really a hot rod and looks really good, so hopefully she runs good too.”

Kasey Kahne has been struggling lately and his record at Martinsville indicates that those struggles might continue. He started from the pole in the spring but a blown engine relegated him to a 38th finished. Prior to that, he finished outside the top ten in last six races here. In only his second race here with Hendrick Motorsports he could reverse that trend, he certainly had the speed in the spring, but don’t be surprised if Kahne finishes outside the top ten once again.

Martin Truex Jr. was fifth here in the spring, and eighth last season. He’ll need to bank on that recent success if he hopes to finish strong Sunday. In the five races prior to the last two, Truex has finished outside the top twenty in four. He’s never won at Martinsville and that probably won’t change Sunday, but he could score a much needed top five finish.

Tony Stewart is the defending winner of this race and was seventh in the spring. The three races prior to that though Stewart finished outside the top 20. Stewart’s win last October was a hard earned battle that saw him nearly lose a lap. Stewart used sheer determination and some great pit work to come back and win. If he displays that kind of grit Sunday, Stewart could go all the way.

Jeff Gordon had a great race in the spring despite the finish and overall has a pretty solid record at Martinsville. He was third here last season and fifth last spring. His record of top fives in five of the six races prior bodes well for him and could see him near the front Sunday.

Matt Kenseth was fourth here in the spring but 31st in this race last year, sixth last spring. Prior to that he had finishes outside the top 10 in five of the last six races at Martinsville. But coming off the win last week, his third of the season and his second in the Chase, Kenseth could be a dark horse and could be a surprise Sunday.

Kevin Harvick has been relatively silent during the Chase. This could be his week to make some noise however. Sure he was 19th here in the spring, but he won this race last spring and was fourth in this race last year. If Harvick hopes to be noticed in the Chase this could be his best race to date to do just that.

Greg Biffle looked strong last week at Kansas until meeting with the outside wall. He tumbled in the standings, and heads to Martinsville hoping for redemption. Unfortunately his past stats don’t bode well. In the last six races here, Biffle finished outside the top ten in five. If he’s looking for redemption he’ll have trouble finding it here.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is back in the game after two weeks on the bench while he nursed a concussion. Martinsville isn’t a bad place for Earnhardt to return. He was third here in the spring and had solid finishes prior to that with a seventh in this race last year and a second last spring.

Non-Chasers
Carl Edwards has never won here, but he was 11th in the spring and ninth in this race last season. Edwards has been searching for a win, and this could be the race where this underdog scores a shocking victory.

AJ Allmendinger was second here in the spring. He ran strong nearly all day and seemed to be very comfortable with the short track style of racing. Yes he’s with a different team but at a track where speed isn’t necessarily king, Allmendinger could be a surprise.

Bottom line: 19 races have been won from the pole, the last by Denny Hamlin in October 2010. Kurt Busch won the 2002 fall race from the 36th starting position, the furthest back a race winner has started.

Favorites:
Jimmie Johnson
Tony Stewart
Jeff Gordon

Non-Chase
Carl Edwards
AJ Allmendinger

Odds to win TUMS Fast Relief 500 (Courtesy of JustBet)

Denny Hamlin 7-2
Jimmie Johnson 4-1
Jeff Gordon 7-1
Tony Stewart 8-1
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Kyle Busch 10-1
Kasey Kahne 12-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12-1
Clint Bowyer 15-1
Kevin Harvick 18-1
Martin Truex Jr. 18-1
Ryan Newman 25-1
Joey Lagano 40-1
Matt Kenseth 40-1
Greg Biffle 40-1
Carl Edwards 40-1
Brian Vickers 50-1
Paul Menard 100-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-1
Juan Montoya 100-1
Jeff Burton 100-1
Aric Almirola 100-1
Jamie McMurray 100-1
Kurt Busch 100-1
Sam Hornish, Jr. 200-1
David Gilliland 300-1
Travis Kvapil 300-1
Bobby Labonte 300-1
Regan Smith 300-1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50-1

**Udog** · 10-26-2012, 08:40 AM

CFL
Dunkel

BC at Calgary
The Lions look to take advantage of a Calgary team that is coming off a win over and is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win. BC is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: BC (+4). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 26

Game 291-292: BC at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 118.270; Calgary 120.569
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 2 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Calgary by 4; 50
Dunkel Pick: BC (+4); Over

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 27

Game 293-294: Winnipeg at Hamilton (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 106.414; Hamilton 112.852
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 6 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 4 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-4 1/2); Under

Game 295-296: Toronto at Saskatchewan (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.791; Saskatchewan 114.711
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 4; 53
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 6; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+4); Over

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28

Game 297-298: Edmonton at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 111.300; Montreal 117.692
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 6 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Montreal by 4 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-4 1/2); Under

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 18

Friday, October 26

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (12 - 4) at CALGARY (10 - 6) - 10/26/2012, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-4 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-3 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, October 27

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WINNIPEG (5 - 11) at HAMILTON (5 - 11) - 10/27/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 6-4 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 7-3 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (7 - 9) at SASKATCHEWAN (8 - 8) - 10/27/2012, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 28

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EDMONTON (7 - 9) at MONTREAL (10 - 6) - 10/28/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in home games in October games since 1996.
MONTREAL is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 5-0 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 5-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 18

Home (35-29). Favorites (27-36), Over (31-31-2). West 20-10 vs East.
Home underdogs are 12-5 in the CFL this season.

British Columbia (12-4) @ Calgary (10-6)-- Lions won three in row, 10 of the last 12 after a 2-2 start, beating Calgary twice: 34-8 (+2.5) here back in Week 5, then 27-22 at home (-4.5) three weeks ago- the loss at McMahon was only other time this year BC was an underdog. Lions are 5-3 on road, losing by 3 in Regina, 5 in Montreal, 6 in Regina again. Stampeders won last seven games when they scored 30+ points; they're 2-4 when scoring less than 30, a number Lions gave up only twice all year. Calgary is 2-5 vs spread in its last seven home games. Under is 3-1-1 in Lions' last five games.

Winnipeg (5-11) @ Hamilton (5-11)-- Bombers won three of last five games, winning last two road games, at Toronto/Montreal, after losing first six road games this season (1-5 vs spread, now 3-5); they're also 2-0 vs Hamilton this year, winning 32-25 (+3) after a bye in Week 8, then 34-12 (+3.5) five weeks ago, both games were at home. TiCats lost three in row, nine of last 11 games; they've given up 35-37-34 points in last three games. Hamilton is 3-5 as a favorite this year. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Winnipeg games, six of last nine Hamilton games went over the total.

Toronto (7-9) @ Saskatchewan (8-8)-- Streaky Roughriders lost last two games; their last win was three weeks ago in Toronto, beating Argos 36-10 (+1.5). Riders are 4-4 as home favorites (5-3 SU), with only two home wins by more than six points. Argos lost last three games (all at home) by average score of 36-18, but they've covered their last five road games. Toronto is 5-5 vs spread when it allows 30 or less points, 1-6 if it allows more. Four of last five Toronto games stayed under; over is 3-1-1 in Riders' last five. Riders scored more than 30 points once in their last seven games.

Edmonton (7-9) @ Montreal (10-6)-- Alouettes have quietly gone 8-3 in last 11 and are tied for second-best record in league; they beat Eskimos 38-25 (+1) on road back in Week 8, outgaining hosts 452-272 in game they led 28-8 at half. Montreal is 4-4 as a home favorite this year, winning home games by 11-1-12-5-11-21 points, losing to Argos/Bombers. Edmonton lost its last three away games by average score of 43-14 (0-3 vs spread); they're 3-4 as road underdogs. Last four Eskimo games went over the total. Game means lot more to Edmonton than it does the Alouettes.

CFL

Week 18

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Trend Report
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Friday, October 26

9:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. CALGARY
British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary
British Columbia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Calgary is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing British Columbia
Calgary is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against British Columbia

Saturday, October 27

1:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. HAMILTON
Winnipeg is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 8 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Hamilton is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games

4:00 PM
TORONTO vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Toronto is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Toronto is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Saskatchewan is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing Toronto

Sunday, October 28

1:00 PM
EDMONTON vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games on the road
Edmonton is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Montreal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games

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CFL

Week 18

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Canadian Bacon: Week 18 CFL betting preview
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With only two games remaining on the regular season schedule, the drive to the postseason continues for CFL teams in Week 18.

B.C. Lions at Calgary Stampeders (-3.5, 50.5)

The Lions have already clinched the West and Calgary has already clinched a playoff berth, so both teams may rest some starters for this game. For the Leos, that includes first-string QB Travis Lulay, who has a sore shoulder, and backup QB Mike Reilly is expected to start.

Calgary posted its second straight win and third in its last four outings last week with a 34-32 victory over Hamiltons. It was a game played in snowy conditions that was decided by a short botched field goal that slipped off the icy kicking tee. There is still snow on the ground in Calgary and temperatures will be below freezing tonight.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-4.5, 56.5)

Winnipeg still has a chance to qualify for the playoffs but must win the final two games of the regular season and have Edmonton drop its final two contests. The Bombers put up a season-high 44 points in last week’s convincing win in Toronto, rallying behind the return of QB Buck Pierce. But it was the Winnipeg ground game that stole the show, racking up four majors and 260 yards in the victory.

The Tiger-Cats have dropped three straight and four of their last five games, but like the Bombers, still have an outside shot at a playoff berth if they can win out and get some outside help. The bad news is Hamilton hasn’t beaten Winnipeg in more than two calendar years, a span of six games. The Blue Bombers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Toronto Argonauts at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-6, 50.5)

Saskatchewan can't catch British Columbia for first place in the West but the Roughriders are not fighting for their playoff lives like Toronto, which needs to win at least one of its final two outings to clinch a postseason berth. The Argonauts have dropped five of their last six contests, including three in a row after being drubbed by Winnipeg last week.

Saskatchewan fell 34-28 last week to Montreal to fall to 8-8 on the campaign. The Roughriders posted a 36-10 victory in Toronto earlier this season, which means the Riders have now won two straight and seven of the last nine encounters with the Boatmen. The teams have played under the total in their last five meetings.

Edmonton Eskimos at Montreal Alouettes (-4.5, 52.5)

The Montreal Alouettes have already locked up top spot in the Eastern Division after their 34-28 victory over Saskatchewan last week and will host the division finals game on Nov. 18. The Als may go into cruise control in the final two weeks but that doesn’t mean they will rest their veteran QB Anthony Calvillo. “I don’t want to have the players looking at me saying ‘Oh, he is taking a day off because he is 40 years old,’” Calvillo said Thursday.

The Eskimos hold a tie-breaker over Saskatchewan and have to win at least one of their last two games on the schedule in order to secure a cross-over spot in the playoffs. Edmonton also has a chance to sneak into the postseason if Hamilton and Winnipeg both split their final two games. Montreal won the only prior meeting this season back on Aug. 17 by a score of 38-25, as Calvillo threw for 327 yards and four TDs. The Als have taken five in a row from Edmonton, which failed to cover the spread in all five of those losses.

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Announcement

Friday's Trends and Indexes - 10/26 (MLB, CFL, WNBA, Misc.)

Friday's Trends and Indexes - 10/26 (MLB, CFL, WNBA, Misc.)

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