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**Udog** · 10-24-2012, 07:53 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

-- ESPN.com reports that Marco Scutaro swung/missed only 62 times in 736 PA this season; Josh Hamilton /missed 65 times in his last 63 PA.

-- Bears already have 22 takeaways in six games, are +13 in turnovers; they’re on pace for a +35 season, which would be a record, I think.

-- AFC North teams are just 4-13 vs spread in non-divisional games.

-- Is it me, or is it weird that Auburn alum Cam Newton’s QB coach at Carolina is former Alabama coach Mike Shula? Seems like they could find someone who would be a better fit.

-- Over last 10+ years, Oakland Raiders are 16-32-2 vs spread in games where number was 3 or less points, in other words, highly competitive games. That’s really bad.

-- Ozzie Guillen/Bobby Valentine both went 69-92 this year, in their first year at their new job; neither will get a second year, as Guillen was canned by the Marlins Tuesday. Miami goes through lot of managers.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Our NFL List of 13.......

32) Jaguars—Outscored 95-20 in three home games; road team covered all six of their games.

31) Chiefs—Brady Quinn (3-10 record as starter) gets nod at QB this week; Raiders won their last five visits to Arrowhead.

30) Browns—Have 18 sacks, are +2 in turnovers; should be better than what they are, but what they are is 1-6.

29) Panthers— Cam Newton won a national title his last year in college, a national junior college title the year before that. He is learning how to deal with adversity in the NFL, as every QB has to. So far, not so good.

28) Lions-- Justin Timberlake/Jessica Biel sold their wedding pictures to People magazine for $300,000, and I wish I was making that up.

8) Ravens—With defense depleted by injury, offense has to step up; they were hideous in Houston. We’ll see how they come out of their bye week.

7) Packers—Looked sharper last two weeks; still laugh that Aaron Rodgers didn’t get a football scholarship coming out of high school. Went to a JC before playing at Cal.

6) Bears—Are already +13 in turnovers, with 22 takeaways, making them like LY’s 49ers. Urlacher looks revitalized. Can they keep it up?

5) 49ers—Opened at -4 over Arizona Monday, got quickly bet up to -7. Still not sold on Alex Smith as a championship QB.

4) Patriots— Belichick will probably have those English guards with the big hats spying on Rams' practices this week in London, not that that I'm still bitter about 2001. Nope, not me.

3) Texans—Need to see more; Ravens laid an egg Sunday. Not sold on Texans as favorite to win Super Bowl, but at +$485, they are right now.

2) Giants—Teams that do best against them take run away and make Giants one-dimensional with pass; they will always throw ball well, but in games they’ve struggled, Big Blue has run ball 19-25-19-19 times- they’ve run ball 30+ times in their better games.

1) Falcons—Undefeated, but an underdog in Philly this week, in another Michael Vick Bowl. Atlanta was poised to beat Philly last year, but Vick got hurt. Matt Ryan is a Philly kid.

**Udog** · 10-24-2012, 07:53 AM

Football lines that make you go hmmm...

There are beatings on the scoreboard and beatings on the field. Alabama prefers to do both.

The Crimson Tide have long been respected for their physical style, leaving opponents licking their wounds for weeks after their run in with Alabama. And plenty of college football bettors look to fade a program following a game with the Tide, knowing that last weekend’s wounds are still fresh.

Alabama’s opponents have gone just 2-3 SU (3-2 ATS) in the next matchup following a date with the defending national champs this year. Last season, foes finished with a combined 4-6 SU and ATS count (minus FCS Georgia Southern and Auburn in the final regular season game) after playing Nick Saban’s guys.

The Missouri Tigers and Tennessee Volunteers are the latest victims to peel themselves off the turf after being trampled by the Crimson Elephant in their most recent “efforts”.

The Tigers had the benefit of a bye week to glue together all the pieces following a 42-10 kick in the teeth by Bama in Week 7. The Volunteers, however, don’t have much time to ice down from a 44-13 thrashing before traveling to South Carolina Saturday.

Oddsmakers have thrown tough lines out for those two SEC punching bags, tagging Missouri as a 13.5-point home favorite versus 1-7 SU Kentucky and settling Tennessee as a two-touchdown pup in Columbia.

The Tigers are still without QB James Franklin but will want to put on a good show for homecoming Saturday. The Wildcats showed some fight against Georgia last week, but caught the Bulldogs in a look-ahead spot with Florida on deck in Week 9.

The Vols could have RB Rajion Neal, who leads the team in touchdowns (7), back in action after missing Alabama last weekend. But South Carolina is going to be pissed after getting blown out in Gainesville last Saturday.

Here are some other football odds making bettors go “hmmm…” heading into the weekend:

NFL

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (-6, 54.5)

The massive total may be stealing some of the thunder from this odd line that has NFL fans on the fence.

The Saints have climbed out of the “Bounty Gate” sludge with back-to-back wins but Denver stole America’s heart with a come-from-behind win on Monday Night Football before heading into the bye week.

Whether you think New Orleans is back or that Denver is dominant at home, all those points have to make you nervous.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 41)

Holy crap the Chiefs are favorites!

Kansas City, with Brady Quinn under center, is giving one point to the Raiders in Arrowhead this Sunday, marking the first time this year K.C. has been the betting chalk.

In fact, the Chiefs were favorites just four times last season, going 0-4 SU and ATS in those games including a 16-13 overtime loss to Oakland as – you guessed it – 1-point home faves.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 41.5)

This standalone Thursday nighter is hovering around the key number, showing that books have faith in the Vikings’ 5-2 SU start – but not too much faith.

Some places are dealing a hard touchdown, giving seven points to a scrappy Bucs squad that is much better than its 2-4 SU record suggests. Tampa Bay is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 road trips and has won and covered in its last five meetings with Minnesota, going back to 2001.

**Udog** · 10-24-2012, 07:55 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Detroit at San Francisco
The Tigers look to build on their 20-6 record in Justin Verlander's last 26 starts as a road favorite of -150 to -200. Detroit is the pick (-175) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 24

Game 901-902: Detroit at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 18.443; San Francisco (Zito) 17.543
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-175); Over

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 24

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DETROIT (95 - 76) at SAN FRANCISCO (101 - 73) - 8:05 PM
JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. BARRY ZITO (L)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 91-73 (-6.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 55-50 (-9.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
DETROIT is 9-16 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 18-24 (-10.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
DETROIT is 95-76 (-6.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 41-45 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 101-73 (+21.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 64-41 (+19.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 66-34 (+24.3 Units) against the money line in home games after shutting out their opponent since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 101-73 (+21.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ZITO is 23-11 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
ZITO is 23-11 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
ZITO is 13-6 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
ZITO is 16-6 (+12.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
ZITO is 12-5 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
ZITO is 9-1 (+11.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 56-34 (+19.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
VERLANDER is 73-35 (+23.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 71-32 (+24.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
VERLANDER is 0-0 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

BARRY ZITO vs. DETROIT since 1997
ZITO is 8-7 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 1.268.
His team's record is 9-8 (-5.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-7. (+1.3 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 24

Verlander is 7-0, 0.86 in his last seven starts, 3-0, 0.74 in three playoff starts; he was 4-0, 3.08 in five interleague starts this year. Giants won Zito's last 13 starts; he is 6-0, 2.20 in his last seven starts, was 1-1, 6.35 in two interleague starts. Tigers haven't played in six days; they're 15-4 in last 19 games, 7-2 in playoffs, 3-2 on road. Giants were down 2-0/3-1 in first two series; they are 7-5 in playoffs, 3-3 at home. Remember, no DH in games played in NL parks. Not sure if Tigers will play Young in LF in games here, since no DH. Under is 8-3-2 in last 13 Detroit games, 3-8-1 in last dozen Giant games.

MLB

Wednesday, October 24

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Trend Report
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8:07 PM
DETROIT vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
San Francisco is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games

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MLB

Monday, October 22

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World Series Game 1 betting preview: Tigers at Giants
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Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants (+153, 7)

Series prices: Detroit -160, San Francisco +140

Neither the Cincinnati Reds nor the St. Louis Cardinals were able to put away the San Francisco Giants when they had the chance. The American League champion Detroit Tigers get their opportunity beginning Wednesday, when they take on the National League champion Giants in Game 1 of the World Series at AT&T Park.

San Francisco was on the verge of being swept by Cincinnati in the best-of-five NL Division Series before rallying to win the final three contests. St. Louis captured three of the first four games of the NL Championship Series before the Giants went on to become the 12th team in major league history - and fifth NL club - to overcome a 3-1 series deficit as they won the franchise's 22nd NL pennant. San Francisco's starting pitchers were outstanding during the comeback, allowing only one run in 20 1/3 innings over the final three NLCS games. The Giants, who are appearing in their 19th overall World Series, fifth since moving from New York to San Francisco and second in three years, will face a Tigers team that has been resting since completing a four-game sweep of the New York Yankees in the ALCS on Thursday.

Detroit is making its 11th trip to the Fall Classic and first since 2006, when it lost to St. Louis. The Tigers have not won a championship since defeating the San Diego Padres in 1984. Manager Jim Leyland, whose roster includes reigning AL MVP and Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander and 2012 Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera, said ALCS MVP Delmon Young will play left field in Game 1 with no designated hitter in the NL park. Young, who appeared in left field in only 31 regular-season games, batted .353 (6-for-17) with two home runs and six RBIs in the ALCS, recording the game-winning RBI in all four contests.

San Francisco's Marco Scutaro was named the NLCS MVP as he went 14-for-28 (.500) after hitting only .150 (3-for-20) in the NLDS. Scutaro, who was acquired from the Colorado Rockies on July 26, tied the LCS record with his 14 hits while setting an LCS mark with six multi-hit performances.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, FOX

WEATHER: There is a 54 percent chance of rain Wednesday with temperatures in the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow WSW at 5 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Justin Verlander (3-0, 0.74 ERA) vs. Giants LH Barry Zito (1-0, 1.74)

Verlander is looking to remain perfect this postseason as he was dominant in his first three starts, allowing 10 hits and two runs over 24 1/3 innings with five walks and 25 strikeouts. The 29-year-old was less than impressive as a rookie in his first World Series, going 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts against St. Louis in 2006. Verlander's lone career outing against the Giants came on June 16, 2008, when he yielded three runs - two earned - and five hits with a walk and seven strikeouts in a no-decision.

San Francisco will counter with veteran Barry Zito, who came up with a huge effort in Game 5 of the NLCS to keep the Giants' hopes alive. The left-hander tossed 7 2/3 scoreless innings against St. Louis, allowing six hits and one walk while striking out six and delivering an RBI bunt single. Zito, who was kept off San Francisco's postseason roster during its run to the 2010 world championship, is 8-6 with a 2.91 ERA in 16 career starts against the Tigers.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 6-0 in their last six playoff games as favorites.
* Giants are 4-0 in their last four World Series home games.
* Under is 5-0 in Tigers' last five interleague games.
* Under is 8-2-1 in Giants' last 11 interleague home games.

WALK-OFFS:

1. On the three previous occasions when one LCS lasted seven games and the other ended in a sweep, the team that went the distance went on to win the World Series.

2. The Giants have won six world championships while the Tigers have captured four.

3. San Francisco outscored its opponents 36-9 while going 6-0 in elimination games and routed St. Louis 20-1 over the final three NLCS contests. The Giants posted the first Game Seven victory in franchise history Monday against the Cardinals.

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**Udog** · 10-24-2012, 11:27 AM

MLB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

World Series, Game One (Series Tied, 0-0)
Detroit at San Francisco, 8:05 ET FOX
Verlander: Detroit 2-11 SU away off BB home games
Zito: 15-3 TSR in the second half of the season

Announcement

Wednesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/24 (MLB, CFL, WNBA, Misc.)

Wednesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/24 (MLB, CFL, WNBA, Misc.)

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