NFL week 8

[roccodean]

1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units

4* Philadelphia over Atlanta (possible upgrade to 5*)
4* at -2.5 or better
This is my biggest be of the year-I feel they will win easily

2* K.C. over Oakland (probably 3* upgrade)
2* at -2 or better

2* Denver -6 over N.O.
This may go to 7, I would get it ASAP

1* Carolina over Chicago
1* at +7.5 or better

[ravenmaniac]

Bol Rocco. Philly is my GOY.

[st bobby]

gl I agree with them

[roccodean]

Philly -1
Denver -6

May make philly my 5* GOY

[roccodean]

4* Philadelphia -1 over Atlanta (possible upgrade to 5* Game Of Year)
4* at -2.5 or better
I would get this game in ASAP
This is a classic game of an underrated team (Phi) versus an overrated team (Atl) and on Monday you'll be hearing ESPN analysts saying "Is Philly back and are the Falcons fraud." To make money (in sports betting or investing) you have to get ahead of the market. Atlanta has no business being undefeated! They are the most over rated team in the league! A team's record is only a small piece at how good they really are. If you cover up the names of these teams and just look at the stats, Philly is the better team. Offensively, Philly averages 4.1 YPR (12th) and are 4th in YPPA. The Falcons defense is simply not good; they allow 5.2 YPR (second to last in the NFL) and are 23rd in YPPA allowed. Does this look like an undefeated teams stats? Defensively Philly is average against the run (17th), but one of the best in the league versus the pass (2nd). Atlanta's offense is very weak gaining only 3.7 YPR (27th) and they are 13th in YPPA.. Atl is undefeated in part because of their weak schedule (strength of schedule is last in NFL). Their opponents combined record is an abysmal 13-24. They won close games versus Caolina, Washington, and Oakland. Atl is +10 in turnovers (3rd in NFL), while Philly is -9 (2nd to last in NFL). If you are +1 in turnovers, you win about 75% of the time and this goes to 95% at +3 in turnovers. Hence, you can explain Atlanta's wins despite being a bad stat team due to turnovers. Turnovers are mostly luck/bad luck (75% independent in the NFL). After a ball is fumbled, it is recovered 50% of time by the offense and 50% by the defense. Everybody is talking about Vick's fumbles, but let's look at the body of work. Before this year, he played 111 games and fumbled 76 times (34 lost); that is about 0.6/game. This year he has played 6 games and has fumbled 9 times (lost 5); that is 1.5 fumbles/game. That is DOUBLE his career average. So, I don't see these fumbles continuing. Philly is off a home favorite loss and a bye…great position. If Philly is not -2 or worse in turnovers I cannot see them losing this game. Simply put, Philly is the better team that is underrated versus an overrated team in a good schedule position…I love the Eagles!

2* K.C. over Oakland (probably 3* upgrade)
2* at -2 or better
Let's be honest, both these teams are bad, but KC is in a good schedule position and has trends backing them. K.C. is off a bye and a blowout loss which sets them up to have a good game. They fall on a 80-43 ATS trend (same as Jax last week). KC is 4th in rushing offense and will be able to move the ball effectively versus a bd Oakland D. This is oaklands 3rd road game out of their last 4 also. K.C. is dead last (-15) in turnovers, a number that should regress...gimme the Chiefs.

2* Denver -6 over N.O.
This may go to 7, I would get it ASAP
The Saints are just not a good team. They allow 30 PPG and are 29th in rush D (YPR) and last in pass D (YPPA). Manning is going to have a field day against this team (4th in YPPA). Denver's defense is strong (6th in YPR and 10th in YPPA) and they Saint's offense won't be able to keep up with Denver's scoring. This is a sandwich game for the Broncos because they are off 2 road and are going on a 2 game road trip, a great position. I smell BLOWOUT city!

1* Carolina over Chicago
1* at +7.5 or better
In the stock market they say buy low, sell high. Well Carolina is low and Chicago is high, which gives us incredible line value. Chicago is slightly overrated and their offense is mediocre (10th in rushing and 18th in passing). While Carolina actually has some of the best offensive stats in the league; they are 6th in YPR and 3rd in YPPA. Chicago's D is good (9th vs run, 2nd vs pass), but they are in for a let down after a Monday night division game off a short week and now are facing a inferior opponent. Chi is 1st in TO diff (+13) which is a big reason for their wins, versus Carolina which is -6 in TO diff.

[LeRoy]

GL on the action Rocco

[CashMoney]

Nice Philly game write up good luck Rocco

[Winton]

Bump

[jt4545]

Good luck today

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco

[CheCheBoFumbe]

Thanks for the write ups, GL today.

[roccodean]

sorry bout the 5* loser boys,Philly just played a very lack luster game and got their clocks cleaned. hope to get it back next week!

[Sirporkie]

Get back on track next week rocco

[3rdmckid]

Not an eagles fan, but like your picks...to me its obvious that the team good or bad, has stopped playing for Reid. No indication if Reid is a great, good, or bad coach, just that the players are not showing any emotion on the field period. If Jeffrey Laurie doesn't see it he is in denial.......and how many times can Vick say he needs to play better ????? REALLY !!!! Good luck this week..........