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**Udog** · 10-22-2012, 07:02 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

USA Today pre-season college basketball poll

6) NC State-- Top-rated team in the ACC; its been a while.

5) Michigan-- One of three Big Dozen teams in top five.

4) Ohio State-- #1 or #2 seed in five of last seven NCAA tourneys

3) Kentucky-- Another almost all-new team, but still lot of talent.

2) Louisville-- So deep one of the walk-ons who was given a scholarship gave it back, so they could stay at the limit of 13.

1) Indiana-- Zeller kid won the 3-point shooting contest at practice.

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday..........

13) Before this weekend's games, according to The Gold Sheet, which knows stuff, if Alabama played Oregon on a neutral field, Bama would be a 4-point favorite; if Crimson Tide played Kansas State on a neutral field, they would be a 12-point favorite (that figure will be lower this week after K-State's 55-14 win at West Virginia).

All of which would make Oregon an 8-point favorite over K-State (as we said before, that figure will be lower this week). We will keep an eye on these numbers as the season goes along.

12) In their three wins, Buffalo allowed 17-14-16 points.

In their four losses, Bills allowed 48-52-45-35 points. Heading into this week, was there a living human who thought the Titans would score 35 in a road win? Excellent comeback led by Matt Hasselbeck.

11) Redskins scored on a 30-yard pass with 1:31 left to grab a 23-20 lead at Swamp Stadium, in what would've been their third win in a row against their division rival Giants, but then they somehow allowed Victor Cruz to get behind their defense, and 77 yards and 0:19 later, Giants had pulled out a 27-23 win.

Washington had 242 rushing yards, 232 passing, but turned ball over four times and kicked FGs on both their red zone visits. Hands down though, Washington is great fun to watch this year with RGIII under center.

10) Dallas Cowboys are struggling on offense, scoring 19 or less points in four of last five games; their coaches are also struggling getting personnel in and out of games- they used a timeout late at Carolina, narrowly avoiding a 12-man-on-field penalty on defense (they had 14 or 15).

Giants visits Big D with a revenge motive next week; Dallas coaches need to have it figured out better by then. Daryl Johnston was working the game on FOX; you could tell by his voice he was a little exasperated.

9) Only two 4:25 games this week: Jets-Patriots and Jaguars-Raiders, not very attractive. Only two 4:25 games next week: Giants-Dallas and Chiefs-Raiders, a little better, but not really that much better.

8) This is Sam Bradford's third season with Rams; he's had 23 different offensive linemen block for him, 30+ players catch passes. Too many.

7) If you care about such things, all seven Bowling Green games stayed under the total; they're the only I-A team without an over this season.

6) Tampa Bay Bucs had a 95-yard pass from Freeman-to-Jackson, but didn't score on the drive, and didn't turn the ball over- they were stopped on downs at the 2-yard line. That doesn't happen very often.

5) A movie named Paranormal Activity took in $30.2M last week; from the title, I wouldn't watch it if it was free on TV, but thats me. Hopefully everyone that paid to see it had a great time.

4) Steelers got terrific win in Cincinnati Sunday night, their first cover in last six road games; they ran ball for 160+ yards after a rough start. Pitt has now won eight of last nine visits to southwestern Ohio.

3) Cincinnati Bengals didn't have plays longer than 17 yards Sunday night, making them the second team this year (Seattle, Week 4) not to have at least one play of 20+ yards. Pittsburgh had eight explosive plays.

2) Arizona Cardinals had ball six times in first half Sunday at Minnesota; four of the six drives started in Viking territory, yet Redbirds scored only seven points. Big reason why Minnesota won.

1) It is October 22; Cardinals have played one game outdoors.

Speaking of October 22, forty years ago today the Oakland A's won the first of three consecutive World Series titles; that was a 1:00 game. Later that afternoon, the Rams beat Cincinnati on a 54-yard FG on the last play of the game. Pretty good afternoon for a 12-year old in upstate NY.

Imagine that though.....in 1972, Game 7 of World Series started at 1pm.

**Udog** · 10-22-2012, 07:03 AM

College football odds: Week 9 opening line report

What rubber there is still left on the tires hits the road in the SEC this coming Saturday as No. 1 Alabama and No. 3 Florida aim to continue to take care of business in advance of what everyone in the country believes will be their battle in the league championship game on Dec. 1.

What Alabama and Florida did to their opponents on Saturday, winning by nearly identical scores, should have resulted in criminal charges.

The Crimson Tide went on the road and crushed Tennessee, 44-13, prompting Vols coach Derek Dooley to gush, “They say they’re not a big-play offense, but they do it every game.” Alabama’s next three games (Mississippi State Saturday, followed by a trip to LSU and a home game against a decent Texas A&M team) are against opponents with a combined record of 19-2. If there’s going to be a takedown, it needs to be soon, because the Tide close with glorified scrimmages against West Carolina and Auburn.

The Gators did the Tide two points better, crushing South Carolina, 44-11, to move up to second in the BCS standings. Florida needs to take care of business at Georgia this week, and has only one more potential loss on the schedule (Nov. 24 at Florida State).

Here’s a look at three key games, with a thank you to Pete Korner, founder of The Sports Club, the premier oddsmaking service in Las Vegas:

Mississippi State (+24) at Alabama

Mississippi State hits hard and has enough offensive juice to have scored at least four TDs in every game but one this season, but the cupcake schedule includes nothing close to what Alabama will bring to the table on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. “By this point in the season,” says Korner, “Alabama has proven its worth. Though at 24 there will be some play on the dog.” Mississippi State is 7-0 but has not beaten a quality opponent, unless you count Troy.

Florida (-3.5) vs. Georgia (at Jacksonville)

The Bulldogs are catching the getting-better-every-week Gators at precisely the wrong time. “Pretty even game,” says Korner, “but it will be interesting to see who bettors like when this one goes to post.” Korner’s oddsmaking team had this game at between 3 and 5 before settling on 3.5.

Notre Dame (+10) at Oklahoma

Seat belt time for the No. 5 Irish, who travel to Norman and will have their hands full with a Sooner team that has averaged 52 points a game over the last three. “There should be a lot of money on this game,” says Korner. “We heard [Brent] Musberger called it a 7-point game, but we’re comfortable at 10.”

**Udog** · 10-22-2012, 07:04 AM

MLB
Dunkel

St. Louis at San Francisco
The Cardinals look to bounce back from last night's 6-1 loss and build on their 13-3 record in Kyle Lohse's last 16 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in the previous game. St. Louis is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+120). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 22

Game 927-928: St. Louis at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 16.776; San Francisco (Cain) 16.184
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+120); Over

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 22

Lohse is 2-0, 1.96 in three postseason starts this year; he put 12 men on base in 5.2 IP of Game 3, but only one of them scored- that was his only start this year against the Giants. Cain is 1-2, 4.43 in his last four starts, finishing sixth inning once; he is 1-2, 5.89 in three starts vs St Louis this year. San Francisco lost three of its last five home games; under is 7-3-1 in their last eleven games overall. Cardinals won seven of last 11 road games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten road games. St Louis scored 7-5-6 runs in its series wins; a total of two runs in the three losses. This is Game 7; managers will have lot shorter leash with the starting pitcher, if he struggles early.

MLB

Monday, October 22

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Trend Report
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8:07 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
St. Louis is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
San Francisco is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home

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**Udog** · 10-22-2012, 11:13 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 22

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ST LOUIS (95 - 79) at SAN FRANCISCO (100 - 73) - 8:05 PM
KYLE LOHSE (R) vs. MATT CAIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 95-79 (-3.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 42-46 (-8.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ST LOUIS is 95-79 (-3.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 58-52 (-6.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 62-59 (-11.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 32-40 (-16.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 100-73 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 168-103 (+62.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 100-73 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 63-41 (+18.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 23-13 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 55-41 (+14.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-6 (+1.1 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

KYLE LOHSE vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LOHSE is 4-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.46 and a WHIP of 1.410.
His team's record is 4-2 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.3 units)

MATT CAIN vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
CAIN is 2-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.83 and a WHIP of 1.370.
His team's record is 3-6 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-4. (+0.2 units)

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**Udog** · 10-22-2012, 11:14 AM

MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, October 22

National League

NL Championship Series, Game Seven (Series Tied, 3-3)
St. Louis at San Francisco, 8:05 ET FOX
Lohse: 21-7 TSR off BB starts allowing 2 ER's or less
Cain: San Francisco 11-3 Under at home off BB games allowing 2 runs or less

**Udog** · 10-22-2012, 11:34 AM

MLB

Monday, October 22

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NLCS Game 7 betting preview: Cardinals at Giants
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St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants (-138, 7)

Series is tied 3-3

The San Francisco Giants look to complete their second historic comeback of the postseason when they face the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series.

The Giants evened the series at three games apiece on Sunday with a 6-1 win behind seven strong innings from Ryan Vogelsong. San Francisco, which rallied from an 0-2 deficit to win the best-of-five NL Division Series, is seeking to become the seventh team to win an LCS after trailing 3-1 since the best-of-seven format was introduced in 1985. The Giants have won five straight when facing possible elimination during this postseason, but their 0-5 record in best-of-7 deciding games is the worst in major-league history.

The defending World Series champion Cardinals have won six straight winner-take-all games, and they’re hoping to have left fielder Matt Holliday available after he missed Game 6 with a back spasms. St. Louis has struggled to generate much offense this series, scoring just one run in its past 20 innings. The Cardinals’ defense has also been an issue, with several key errors contributing to an NLCS-record 10 unearned runs allowed.

The Giants have outscored St. Louis 10-1 in the last two games, and Marco Scutaro is leading the attack. The veteran second baseman is batting .458 (11-for-24) with five runs scored in the series, but the Giants are still waiting for Hunter Pence to produce in the middle of the order. Pence was 1-for-4 with three strikeouts on Sunday, and he’s 3-for-23 (.130) in the series. The Game 7 pitching matchup features the Giants’ Matt Cain against Kyle Lohse in a rematch of Game 3, when the Cardinals won 3-1.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, FOX

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for an 85 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow west at 13 mph earlier in the evening.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Kyle Lohse (1-0, 1.59 ERA) vs. Giants RH Matt Cain (0-1, 4.05)

Lohse will be looking to improve his control after allowing one run with five walks on 108 pitches over 5 2/3 innings in Game 3. Pence is 14-for-50 (.280) against Lohse, who is 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three starts this postseason. Lohse was 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 33 starts and a career-best 211 innings during the regular season, and he’s 3-2 with a 3.78 ERA in five career starts against the Giants.

Cain didn’t allow an unearned run over 21 1/3 innings in the 2010 playoffs during the Giants’ World Series run, but he hasn’t been quite as sharp during this postseason. He’s 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in three starts after yielding three runs over 6 2/3 innings in Game 3. Carlos Beltran is 7-for-19 with a home run against Cain, who is 2-3 with a 4.94 ERA in eight career starts against St. Louis.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Francisco.
* Under is 5-2 in Cains last 7 starts vs. Cardinals.
* Cardinals are 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss.
* Giants are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a home favorite.

UMP TRENDS - Gary Darling:

* Road team is 4-0 in Darlings last four games behind home plate.
* Home team is 16-7 in Darlings last 23 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
* Giants are 2-12 in their last 14 games with Darling behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Giants are 5-1 when scoring four or more runs in the postseason and 1-4 when scoring three runs or fewer. San Francisco is also 5-1 when scoring first this postseason.

2. St. Louis OF Jon Jay is batting just .184 (9-for-49) this postseason after going hitless in four at-bats in Game 6.

3. Giants C Buster Posey went 0-for-4 on Sunday and is 3-for-22 (.136) with no extra base hits and six strikeouts in the series.

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**Udog** · 10-22-2012, 12:14 PM

2012 NLCS: 5 Reasons the St. Louis Cardinals Will Win the NL Pennant in Game 7
By Clarence Baldwin Jr

So here we go. Just as I assumed before the series began, the 2012 NLCS has become a seven-game classic. The matchup on paper favors the Giants as their ace Matt Cain faces Kyle Lohse.

But don't be fooled by first glances. In spite of how the lineup looks on paper, there are some keys that I feel will ultimately carry St. Louis into their second straight World Series.

Here first, is key No. 5...

Believe it or not, it does matter. For each team's perspective lineups (assuming Matt Holliday plays tomorrow night), there is no contest in Game 7 experience: St. Louis would has seven starters who have played in a Game 7 (only Pete Kozma hasn't played in one).

By contrast, the Giants have no one with experience in a Game 7. Not Pagan, not Scutaro, not Posey, not even Pence or Blanco. History says, it does matter. In four of the last five postseason game Game 7's, the team with the most experience has prevailed (only the '08 Rays buck that trend).

What this says is, in a one game, winner take all setting, the pressure is different from "lose or you go home." The stakes are high for both teams, which changes the degree with which the game is played. Expect both managers to make some earlier decisions than normal. Case in point...

Here's a hypothetical: Let's say that Kyle Lohse throws a ton of pitches and wriggles out of a jam or two. Would it surprise you at all if Mike Matheny turned to his bullpen early and didn't risk Lohse getting into a situation he couldn't get out of?

I could easily see that happening. As such, having Wainwright available to pitch could be huge. While he hasn't been great on the road this year (four-plus ERA), Wainwright was absolutely filthy against San Francisco in Game 4.

And while the Giants could counter with Tim Lincecum (though it is doubtful with Cain pitching) right now, the advantage in the long relief goes to the Cardinals. So it would behoove St. Louis to get ahead early.

The combined nine "regulars" (Matt Carpenter included) for St. Louis hit a combined 33-for- 112 lifetime against Matt Cain. That's a .295 batting average. What that means is the Cardinals will have their chances to score.

It also means a slight deficit won't have the same type of foreboding that falling behind Ryan Vogelsong did. Over the last two years, the Cardinals have been more than just resilient: They have been very good. Their championship resolve will get tested against an elite pitcher tomorrow night. Expect them to respond like champions.

Some people are just night owls. In 2012, that has certainly applied to Kyle Lohse. Of his 16 regular-season wins, 12 of them have occurred in night games. As a matter of fact, he is tangibly better at night than in the daytime.

Let's compare: During the day, Lohse was 4-1 with a 3.55 ERA in 2012. But at night, he was a sparkling 12-2 with a 2.56 ERA. His effectiveness seems to have continued as such in the postseason.

Against the Nationals, Lohse went seven strong innings in Game 4 in Washington, leaving with a 1-1 tie. That was a night game. In the midday against San Francisco in Game 3 of this series, Lohse wriggled like bait on a fishing hook, but escaped after 5.2 innings with just one run allowed.

It is not a reach at this point: The guy is appreciably better at night. The San Francisco sunset is at approximately 6:22 p.m. PST. If the Cardinals have a lead at that time, they will win the pennant. You heard it here first.

Ultimately, the deciding factor here is what I will call in an unoriginal manner: "Cardinals Magic." This team has whatever that "it" is supposed to be. This was never going to be an easy series. The Giants are in many ways, a mirror image of St. Louis. I said that before the series began as well.

So how do you make a decision when two teams are so evenly matched? For me, it is going to be recent history. The Giants have won their last three elimination games, all against the Reds. The Cardinals have won their last eight, against the Astros, Phillies, Rangers, Braves and Nationals.

In other words, it hasn't mattered what scenario, what the circumstances and what the adversity, this team has found a way to win. What I will say is, they better not find themselves playing from behind too long. That is on Kyle Lohse. As I have shown you earlier, I don't worry so much about that.

What it will come down to is this gritty bunch looking the Giants in the eyes, staring down perhaps the most hostile of their road crowds during this run, and doing it one last time. They have been down to their last game, last inning, last out and last strike multiple times during these last two years. And they have remained standing. With the chips down one last time, I will go with the champs until they are dethroned.

The Giants impress me. The Cardinals make me believe.

Whoever wins will have survived. This will not be a blowout, nor will it be given away. St. Louis may lose, but I will go on record as saying they won't hand the Giants the pennant.

The knee-jerk reaction is to assume a tight pitching duel. I think that is actually likely. The key will be Lohse duplicating his Game 3 escape act because I anticipate the Giants having base runners. If he is able to give the Cardinals 6-plus innings, that means they will be in prime position to win.

Conversely, the first two innings will go a long way towards determining what kind of night the offense has against Matt Cain. Jump on him early and get a run or two and St. Louis will be in great shape. It's winner take all, and the real winner is anyone watching. It is going to be a classic.

**Udog** · 10-22-2012, 12:25 PM

NFL odds: Week 8 opening line report

Going undefeated through the first seven weeks of the NFL schedule isn’t what it used to be.

The Atlanta Falcons, who are 6-0 SU and coming off a bye week, aren’t getting much respect from oddsmakers in Week 7. The Falcons are 1-point road underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles – a 3-3 team that is coming off back-to-back losses before the bye. Some offshores opened Philadelphia as high as -2.5.

Plenty of bettors are pointing to Eagles head coach Andy Reid, who is notorious for strong showings coming off the bye week. He's 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS following a week off while Philadelphia, as a franchise, owns a 19-4 SU and a 16-7 ATS mark coming off the bye since 1990.

“I don’t know what people like about Philly,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club, told Covers. “I can only go by how they’re playing. And right now, they’re not playing that well.”

Korner says he was the only member of his five-person oddsmaking team that favored Atlanta on the road. He says his service only sent out Philadelphia -1 because they knew what the online books were going to post for Week 7.

“They have some serious chemistry issues,” Korner says about the Eagles. “In football, it is such a violent and emotional game, that chemistry keeps it all together.”

Philadelphia dropped to 3-3 SU (1-4-1 ATS) after a fourth-quarter collapse in a 26-23 overtime loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 6. That cost defensive coordinator Juan Castillo his job – a bullet many insiders suggest Castillo took for Reid, who has come under fire for his choice to stand by QB Michael Vick, despite Vick’s lackluster performances and turnover troubles (eight INTs, six fumbles).

“Vick doesn’t even look like he’s f-ing trying out there,” says Korner. “He seems like he’s going through the motions.”

The Falcons, on the other hand, remained perfect with a 23-20 win over the Oakland Raiders at home in Week 6. Atlanta failed to cover the 9.5-point spread and is just 1-2 ATS in its past three outings, sitting at 4-2 ATS on the year.

“What’s not to like about Atlanta?” asks Korner.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-1, 47.5)

Following a Week 1 loss to the Cowboys, the Giants have slowly built momentum and enter Week 7 at 5-2 SU off a tough win over the Washington Redskins this past weekend. However, oddsmakers have tabbed Dallas as a 1-point home favorite for this NFC East grudge match.

“The Giants are a big-game team and this is a revenge situation for them,” says Korner, who was the only member of his oddsmaking team to favor New York. “I sat there for about 60 seconds in silence before I put out what I wanted. This game is basically a pick’em. At one, you’re basically picking the winner.”

Korner says both sides have a loyal following so it may be hard to anticipate the late action. That massive fan base, along with the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff will make this game the most-bet contest on the board this coming Sunday.

“All that early money is going to funnel right into this game,” says Korner. “It will be the biggest game and will be the deciding game for books. It will have more money on it than the New Orleans-Denver Sunday night game.”

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (-6.5, 54.5)

Both teams look like they’ve got their grooves back heading into this Sunday night showdown of elite quarterbacks.

Drew Brees and the Saints are putting the pieces back together following back-to-back wins while Peyton Manning and the Broncos had the week off after their thrilling comeback win over the San Diego Chargers in Week 6.

Offshore books opened Denver a near-touchdown favorite, however, The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of Broncos -3.5.

Korner says there are two ways of looking at these numbers: Denver is good and has been very good at home. And, New Orleans is getting hot and is a very dangerous team.

“One more win and they’re right back to where they should be,” Korner says of the Saints. “Denver has the respect at home and offshore books have made that very clear.”

Korner believes the action is going to come in on New Orleans, with plenty of sharp money on the underdog come Sunday night.

“That’s not a bad place to be, especially for these marquee games,” he says of wise guys wagering on the dog. “This is going to be a great game to watch.”

The total for Sunday Night Football opened at 54.5 points, which is par for the course when it comes to the Saints this season. New Orleans has gone 5-1 over/under, regularly topping numbers in the 50's.

Announcement

Monday's Trends and Indexes - 10/22 (MLB, CFL, WNBA, Misc.)

Monday's Trends and Indexes - 10/22 (MLB, CFL, WNBA, Misc.)

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