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**Udog** · 10-21-2012, 09:13 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks and six least popular picks in LVH handicapping contest, which has 700+ contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........

6) Green Bay Packers, 172
5) St Louis Rams, 189
4) Cleveland Browns, 190
3) Dallas Cowboys, 207
T1) Washington Redskins, 209
T1) Cincinnati Bengals, 209

25) New Jersey Giants, 117
26) Pittsburgh Steelers, 107
27) Indianapolis Colts, 104
28) Tennessee Titans, 97
29) New Jersey Jets, 91
31) Jacksonville Jaguars, 86

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday.......

13) I'm old enough to remember how helpless Kansas State's football team was before Bill Snyder came to Manhattan; the coaching job he's done with the Wildcats ranks up there with any in the history of the game. K-State went to Morgantown and crushed West Virginia 55-14. Could the national championship trophy be coming to the Little Apple?

12) Well, they'd have to beat Alabama to win the national title, and it does not look too likely that the Crimson Tide is losing anytime soon. Alabama went to Knoxville and methodically drubbed the Vols 44-13. All of this because Nick Saban chose Daunte Culpepper over Drew Brees when he was coaching the Dolphins. Otherwise, he'd still be in Miami.

11) Congrats to the Duke Blue Devils, who scored a TD with 0:13 left to not only beat rival North Carolina, but to become bowl eligible for first time since 1993. Tar Heels lost in Durham for first time since 1988.

10) Baylor's defensive coordinator better start looking for a new job; Bears lost 56-50 to Texas, have now lost games this year when they scored 63 and 50 points. Either that, or allocate more recruiting assets to defense.

9) Unbeaten Rutgers was down 10-0 at half at Temple, but did what good teams do; they spanked the Owls in second half, and won 35-10. Knights and Louisville are a pair of unbeatens in the Big East.

8) Louisiana Tech is really good; they had a 56-21 lead at halftime of a 70-28 demolition of an overmatched Idaho squad. If Tech scored 57 points on Texas A&M last week, you know they're torching WAC defenses.

7) Northwestern led Nebraska 28-16 with 7:00 left, but collapsed down the stretch and lost 29-28 to the Cornhuskers, who threw the ball for 342 yards. Looked a lot like their late collapse in a loss at Penn State.

6) This happened Friday night, but it bears mentioning; SMU scored four TDs on defense in a bizarre 72-42 win over favored Houston. They ran back three INTs for scores and also ran a fumble back, as Cougars turned ball over nine times. Did I mention Houston was favored?

5) When San Diego State beat Colorado State last week, they didn't have a penalty, the first time since 1973 they went penalty-less in a game.

4) The new SEC schedule is creating scnearios where teams are playing three quality teams on consecutive Saturdays, which rarely happened until now. West Virginia/South Carolina looked awful this week, and that is a big reason why. Up until now, teams would put in a bye week before their bigger games. This is more like an NFL schedule.

3) Penn State had lost eight of its last nine games against Iowa, but they went to Iowa City and thrashed the Hawkeyes, 38-14, fifth win in a row for Bill O'Brien's club, after an 0-2 start.

2) You wait and see; if K-State QB Collin Klein becomes frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy, NBC and other Notre Dame apologists will push for Irish LB Monti Te'o to become the first defensive winner of the award.

1) UL-Monroe did it again, winning 43-42 in OT at Western Kentucky; down 42-35 in OT, the Warhawks scored a TD, then went for the win and got it, adding another chapter in the story of what will soon become their first winning season at the I-A level.

**Udog** · 10-21-2012, 09:13 AM

NASCAR betting: Hollywood Casino 400 preview

As the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Kansas Speedway for Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400, choosing a favorite might seem easy. Then again, past statistics might actually mean nothing at all with the track getting a recent facelift.

For the first time in the history of the Chase and since 1999, the top three contenders for the title are the three previous race winners at the track the series is racing at. Denny Hamlin won at Kansas in the spring, Jimmie Johnson won this race last season and Brad Keselowski won the Kansas race last spring.

However, Kansas has been repaved since its last event and the turns now have variable banking – 17 degrees to 20 degrees – that replaces the 15 degrees (apron to wall) of the former layout. Teams got a chance to try out the new surface during a short two-day testing session this week, but don’t except past success to equal future victory.

Brad Keselowski is still in control of the points lead. After finishing outside the Top 10 at Charlotte last week, Keselowski lost half of his lead and enters Kansas seven markers ahead. While he did have a bad finish last week, keep in mind he did lead the most laps on the 1.5-mile Charlotte track, coming up short in the end after a fuel-mileage gamble that was played wrong. Keselowski could make up for his mistake with a win Sunday.

“We can’t wait to get to Kansas to prove that our finish at Charlotte was an anomaly, a blip on the radar,” Keselowski told reporters. “And going to a track where we’ve won before gives us a little extra confidence, although it is a new surface that we’ll be breaking in. We were able to take part in the tire test there a few weeks ago and they did an outstanding job with the repave. It’s smooth and fast, and while it may be one-groove for a few races, I think we’ll see it become a very competitive place. I would definitely like to be the first driver to win on the new surface.”

Jimmie Johnson parleyed his fuel mileage gamble last week into a strong third place finish. Johnson is the defending winner of this race and was third here in the spring. Johnson’s frustration at having gone winless since Indy could come to an end Sunday. Remember though, Kansas is usually a fuel mileage race and that’s something Johnson has yet to completely master.

Denny Hamlin won the spring race here but was 16th in this race last season. He was third the year prior but 12th then fifth. He could surprise this weekend but with his up and down record and given the unknowns that make the notebooks obsolete, it could be a day of simply surviving for Hamlin.

Clint Bowyer has never been known for his prowess on 1.5 tracks. However, last week at Charlotte Bowyer was able to conserve enough fuel and get in a position to score his first win on a 1.5 mile track. There’s something to be said for momentum and heading to the 1.5 track Bowyer considers his home track, Bowyer could just stage a repeat this Sunday.

“A lot of confidence, a lot of momentum, everything that comes off of a win,” Bowyer said. “But to be able to do it rolling into home, and Kansas is very special, a lot of testing over the next couple days, looking forward to getting there and seeing what we have for a race car and the new repave.”

Kasey Kahne was a favorite last week and came up far short of expectations. He’s never won at Kansas although he was second in this race last year and 8th in the spring. The two races prior to his runner up finish last season, Kahne finished outside the top 10. Kahne could be strong Sunday, but may just hope to finish inside the top 10.

Greg Biffle made the biggest gain in the points last week with a fourth place finish at Charlotte. Baffle now heads to Kansas where he’s a two time winner and finished fifth here in the spring. He also has the second highest driver rating in the field, second only to Johnson. If Biffle is on his game this weekend, he could just be the driver to beat Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr. was second here in the spring, but his record at Kansas prior to that is less than stellar. In four of the last five races prior to this year, Truex finished outside the top 20. He also has the lowest driver rating among the Chase field. Never say never, but a win at Kansas is probably not in Truex’s future.

Tony Stewart has had a quiet Chase thus far. A 13th place finish last week at Charlotte didn’t help his cause. Heading to Kansas might give him some glimmer of hope; after all he does have two wins here and the third highest driver rating. But Stewart has finished outside the top 10 in his last two visits here including a 13th here in the spring. He’s been hot and he’s been cold here; lately he seems colder than hotter.

Jeff Gordon has been in the Chase then out of the Chase. He started at the bottom and made it as high as sixth. After finishing 18th last week at Charlotte Gordon fell three spots and now enters Kansas in ninth. Gordon does have two wins here, but those came a decade ago. He was 21st here in the spring and engine woes in this race last year relegated him to a 34th. Gordon is struggling and especially so at the 1.5 mile tracks. Don’t look to victory lane for Gordon this week.

Kevin Harvick had a career best finish of third here in 2010. Since then he’s finished sixth in the spring and in this race last year and 11th in the spring race last season. Harvick has been a no-show during the Chase and that probably won’t change Sunday.

Matt Kenseth has never won here, but that could change this weekend. Kenseth has finished fourth here in the last two races including the spring race. Kenseth won at Talladega and could definitely add another win this Sunday.

Dale Earnhardt Jr., will be setting out another race as he recovers from the effects of a concussion. It will be fun to watch his replacement Regan Smith try and keep the No. 88 Chevy in the top 10.

Non-Chasers.

Carl Edwards would love nothing more than to add to Kansas Speedway victory to his resume. The Missouri native considers Kansas his home track, but has never finished better than second here. He was ninth in the spring race but with nothing to lose, Edwards could go all the way Sunday.

Mark Martin running a part time schedule for Michael Waltrip Racing has been competitive in every race he’s entered. Martin has two top-five and four top-10 finishes plus a pole in his most recent six races. Martin is a Kansas winner (2005) and finished 10th in last year’s fall event.

Seven of the 13 races have been won from a top-10 starting position. Two drivers have won from the pole: Joe Nemechek in 2004 and Jimmie Johnson in 2008. The furthest back in the field that a race winner started was 25th, by Brad Keselowski last season.

Favorites:

Brad Keselowski
Greg Biffle
Matt Kenseth
Non-Chasers
Carl Edwards
Mark Martin

Odds to win the Hollywood Casino 400 (Courtesy of JustBet)

Denny Hamlin 5-1
Jimmie Johnson 5-1
Greg Biffle 7-1
Kasey Kahne 8-1
Kyle Busch 8-1
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Matt Kenseth 12-1
Jeff Gordon 12-1
Carl Edwards 12-1
Tony Stewart 15-1
Clint Bowyer 15-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-1
Mark Martin 15-1
Kevin Harvick 20-1
Regan Smith 30-1
Joey Lagano 40-1
Ryan Newman 60-1
Kurt Busch 75-1
Sam Hornish, Jr. 100-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-1
Jeff Burton 200-1
Paul Menard 200-1
Trevor Bayne 300-1
A.J. Allmendinger 300-1
Aric Almirola 300-1
Jamie McMurray 300-1
Juan Montoya 300-1
Bobby Labonte 300-1
Danica Patrick 300-1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50-1

**Udog** · 10-21-2012, 09:14 AM

WNBA
Dunkel

Minnesota at Indiana
The Lynx look to bounce back from their 76-59 loss in Game 3 and build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games following an ATS defeat. Minnesota is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 21

Game 681-682: Minnesota at Indiana (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 119.540; Indiana 115.235
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 4; 146
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-1 1/2); Under

WNBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 21

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MINNESOTA (32 - 10) at INDIANA (28 - 15) - 10/21/2012, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 48-35 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road games against Eastern conference opponents since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 84-121 ATS (-49.1 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
INDIANA is 59-88 ATS (-37.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 5-4 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 5-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Sunday, October 121

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. INDIANA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Minnesota's last 15 games when playing Indiana
Indiana is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Indiana is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota

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**Udog** · 10-21-2012, 09:16 AM

MLB
Dunkel

St. Louis at San Francisco
The Giants are coming off a 5-0 win on Friday and look to build on their 10-2 record in Ryan Vogelsong's last 12 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. San Francisco is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 21

Game 923-924: St. Louis at San Francisco (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.225; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 16.735
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 21

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ST LOUIS (95 - 78) at SAN FRANCISCO (99 - 73) - 7:35 PM
CHRIS CARPENTER (R) vs. RYAN VOGELSONG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 95-78 (-2.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 95-78 (-2.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 62-58 (-10.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 32-39 (-15.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CARPENTER is 2-9 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 99-73 (+19.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 99-73 (+19.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
VOGELSONG is 21-12 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
VOGELSONG is 21-12 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 23-12 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 81-61 (+26.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off since 1997.
ST LOUIS is 55-40 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CARPENTER is 12-4 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-6 (+0.1 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

CHRIS CARPENTER vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
CARPENTER is 4-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.368.
His team's record is 6-3 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-5. (-1.6 units)

RYAN VOGELSONG vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
VOGELSONG is 2-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 5.75 and a WHIP of 1.417.
His team's record is 2-5 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-4. (-1.3 units)

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MLB
Short Sheet

Sunday, October 21

National League

NL Championship Series, Game Six (St. Louis Leads, 3-2)
St. Louis at San Francisco, 7:35 ET FOX
Carpenter: St. Louis 15-6 Over playing with rest
Vogelsong: 12-3 TSR after allowing 1 or 0 ER's last start

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, October 21

Carpenter is 1-3, 4.05 in five starts this year, giving up five runs (two earned) in four IP vs San Francisco in Monday's Game 2. He allowed two runs in five IP in only start against the Giants LY. He was 4-0, 3.25 in his six postseason starts LY. Vogelsong is 3-0, 1.86 in his last five starts, allowing one run in his seven IP in Game 2- he's allowed one run in 14 IP vs St Louis this year. San Francisco lost three of its last four home games; seven of their last ten games overall went over the total. Cardinals won seven of last ten road games; six of their last nine games overall went over the total.

MLB

Sunday, October 21

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Trend Report
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7:37 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games
San Francisco is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home

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MLB

Sunday, October 21

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NLCS betting preview: Cardinals at Giants
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St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants (-115, 6.5)

St. Louis leads series 3-2.

The St. Louis Cardinals have blown a 3-1 lead in a postseason series three times in their history, but they’re not thinking about that as they head west for the rest of the National League Championship Series. Instead, St. Louis is looking to rebound from a 5-0 loss in Game 5 that trimmed their series lead to 3-2 with Game 6 looming on Sunday. The San Francisco Giants proved they can win the hard way after taking three straight against Cincinnati to capture the NL Division Series, and they have Ryan Vogelsong and Matt Cain lined up to start the final two games of the NLCS. Pablo Sandoval has homered in each of his last two games, and he’s hitting .310 (13-for-42) with three home runs in 10 postseason games.

The Cardinals are seeking more offensive consistency after batting .198 through the first three games of the series and going 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position in Game 5. While Matt Holliday went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts on Friday, Carlos Beltran had a double and a stolen base after missing Game 4 with a strained left knee. The Giants are also hoping to get more production from the heart of their order, starting with MVP candidate Buster Posey, who is 3-for-18 with three walks in the NLCS. Hunter Pence and Gregor Blanco have both struggled this postseason, but manager Bruce Bochy has been reluctant to replace either outfielder with Xavier Nady. Pence is one of the Giants' clubhouse leaders, but he's hitting just .154 (6-for-39) in the playoffs.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, FOX

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 11 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Chris Carpenter (1-1, 1.86 ERA) vs. Giants RH Ryan Vogelsong (1-0, 1.50)

Carpenter is looking to redeem himself after allowing five runs (two earned) over four innings against the Giants in Game 2. Pence is 5-for-28 with seven strikeouts against Carpenter, who is 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA in eight career starts against San Francisco. Carpenter, who is one win shy of tying Greg Maddux and Curt Schilling for the fifth-most playoff victories in history (11), missed the first 150 games of the season with a right shoulder injury.

Vogelsong has been a pleasant surprise this postseason, posting a 1.50 ERA and allowing only seven hits in 12 innings over two starts. He gave up one run over seven frames in Game 2, and he threw seven scoreless innings in a 15-0 win at Busch Stadium on Aug. 8. Yadier Molina is 3-for-14 and Beltran is 6-for-13 with a home run against Vogelsong, who finished the regular season with a 0.53 ERA over his final three starts.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 8-0 in their last eight games following a loss.
* Giants are 4-1 in Vogelsong’s last five starts.
* Over is 5-0 in Cardinals’ last five playoff games as an underdog.
* Over is 8-0 in Giants’ last eight playoff home games.

UMP TRENDS- Jerry Layne:

* Over is 10-2 in Layne’s last 12 games behind home plate.
* Cardinals are 9-1 in their last 10 games with Layne behind home plate.
* Road team is 15-6 in Layne’s last 21 games behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Giants are looking to become the seventh team to win a League Championship Series after trailing 3-1 since the best-of-seven format was adopted in 1985.

2. Carpenter has started with a chance for his team to clinch a playoff series four times in his career, with the Cardinals going 3-1. He has a 1.93 ERA in those starts over 28 innings.

3. The Giants are 4-1 when scoring four or more runs in the postseason and 1-4 when scoring three runs or fewer.

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Announcement

Sunday's Trends and Indexes - 10/21 (MLB, CFL, WNBA, Misc.)

Sunday's Trends and Indexes - 10/21 (MLB, CFL, WNBA, Misc.)

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