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**Udog** · 10-20-2012, 08:46 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Some NFL knowledge, with Week 7 here......

-- Patriots are 23-7 vs spread in game following their last 30 losses.

-- Rams faced three rookie QBs in first six games; not this week.

-- Cleveland is 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven road games.

-- Titans covered only twice in their last ten games.

-- Carolina covered twice in its last seven home games.

-- If you add up all 16 NFC teams, they're 33-5 as underdogs this year.

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Random stuff with the weekend here........

13) Have to laugh at Bronx Bomber fans suggesting that Alex Rodriguez get traded, usually for another team’s top young pitching prospect. Uh-uh, ain’t going to happen. Rest of major leagues doesn’t exist to be a safety net for your failures, and ARod's contract is a huge albatross right now.

12) Why would any of the other 29 major league teams trade for ARod? Why? How much of the $22.8M average salary (over the NEXT FIVE YEARS) would Bronx have to eat in order for you to bail them out of having him on their team? 70%? 80%?

If Bronx ate 75% of his contract, the new team would have to pay him an average of $5.7M a year, but if his skills are declining now, what will they be like in 2017? And it almost has to be an AL team, so he can DH now and then. We won’t even get into his…..um….lack of focus during games. Good luck getting rid of him.

11) Game of musical chairs between college conferences is still being played out. CAA expanded with College of Charleston, but was turned down by Davidson, pair of Southern Conference schools.

10) Its not often you see puddles in fair territory in a big league ballpark, but there were two pretty big ones at the Cardinal game Wednesday, after the 3+hour rain delay.

I got in a good-sized nap during that delay, so thanks for that.

9) Timberwolves’ star forward Kevin Love broke his hand, is now out 6-8 weeks; he hurt the hand doing knuckle pushups, which will probably now be outlawed in Minnesota. I know they're illegal in my house.

8) Thru six weeks, best red zone offenses in NFL, based on points per possession: Packers 6.12, 49ers 5.75, Broncos 5.65.

Worst: Jets 3.26, Chiefs 3.47, Rams 3.79.

7) Best red zone defenses: Bucs 3.44, Seahawks 3.69, Cardinals 3.71. Worst: Colts 5.95, Bills 5.71, Cowboys 5.58.

6) New Jersey DMV isn’t allowing people to smile on license pictures anymore; seems that it screws up the facial-recognition software. Terrific.

5) A high school kid in Washington made a 67-yard FG; kid in Utah made a 65-yarder.

Penn State and few other D-I schools need to contact these kids, because their kickers are life-and-death to make 35-yarders right now.

4) Was watching an NBA preseason game and someone took a foul line jumper; you just don’t see many of those anymore. Everything is dunks, 3’s and end-of-shot clock fadeaways.

3) San Diego State will be playing basketball in Big West after this season; they’re going to be like UNLV was 25 years ago, an absolute power, since they’re already raking in lot of talented transfer players.

They are far and away better than any current BW program. Not sure how the football team will fare playing in the Big East (seriously, they are) but the hoops team is set for as long as Steve Fisher is coaching there.

2) Red Sox want Toronto skipper John Farrell to be their next manager; they’re apparently talking compensation with the Blue Jays now, but what if all that falls through? How could Farrell go back to Toronto next year? Will Toronto stall the Red Sox, then just fire Farrell after Boston hires someone else? Weird situation.

1) Then there are the Rockies, who interviewed Jason Giambi for their vacant manager’s job. I’d have thought Giambi would manage a strip club before he managed a ballclub, but you never know. Takes a tremendous leap of faith to hire someone (Ventura/Matheny worked out well) who has never managed before. Anywhere.

**Udog** · 10-20-2012, 08:47 AM

NASCAR betting: Hollywood Casino 400 preview

As the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Kansas Speedway for Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400, choosing a favorite might seem easy. Then again, past statistics might actually mean nothing at all with the track getting a recent facelift.

For the first time in the history of the Chase and since 1999, the top three contenders for the title are the three previous race winners at the track the series is racing at. Denny Hamlin won at Kansas in the spring, Jimmie Johnson won this race last season and Brad Keselowski won the Kansas race last spring.

However, Kansas has been repaved since its last event and the turns now have variable banking – 17 degrees to 20 degrees – that replaces the 15 degrees (apron to wall) of the former layout. Teams got a chance to try out the new surface during a short two-day testing session this week, but don’t except past success to equal future victory.

Brad Keselowski is still in control of the points lead. After finishing outside the Top 10 at Charlotte last week, Keselowski lost half of his lead and enters Kansas seven markers ahead. While he did have a bad finish last week, keep in mind he did lead the most laps on the 1.5-mile Charlotte track, coming up short in the end after a fuel-mileage gamble that was played wrong. Keselowski could make up for his mistake with a win Sunday.

“We can’t wait to get to Kansas to prove that our finish at Charlotte was an anomaly, a blip on the radar,” Keselowski told reporters. “And going to a track where we’ve won before gives us a little extra confidence, although it is a new surface that we’ll be breaking in. We were able to take part in the tire test there a few weeks ago and they did an outstanding job with the repave. It’s smooth and fast, and while it may be one-groove for a few races, I think we’ll see it become a very competitive place. I would definitely like to be the first driver to win on the new surface.”

Jimmie Johnson parleyed his fuel mileage gamble last week into a strong third place finish. Johnson is the defending winner of this race and was third here in the spring. Johnson’s frustration at having gone winless since Indy could come to an end Sunday. Remember though, Kansas is usually a fuel mileage race and that’s something Johnson has yet to completely master.

Denny Hamlin won the spring race here but was 16th in this race last season. He was third the year prior but 12th then fifth. He could surprise this weekend but with his up and down record and given the unknowns that make the notebooks obsolete, it could be a day of simply surviving for Hamlin.

Clint Bowyer has never been known for his prowess on 1.5 tracks. However, last week at Charlotte Bowyer was able to conserve enough fuel and get in a position to score his first win on a 1.5 mile track. There’s something to be said for momentum and heading to the 1.5 track Bowyer considers his home track, Bowyer could just stage a repeat this Sunday.

“A lot of confidence, a lot of momentum, everything that comes off of a win,” Bowyer said. “But to be able to do it rolling into home, and Kansas is very special, a lot of testing over the next couple days, looking forward to getting there and seeing what we have for a race car and the new repave.”

Kasey Kahne was a favorite last week and came up far short of expectations. He’s never won at Kansas although he was second in this race last year and 8th in the spring. The two races prior to his runner up finish last season, Kahne finished outside the top 10. Kahne could be strong Sunday, but may just hope to finish inside the top 10.

Greg Biffle made the biggest gain in the points last week with a fourth place finish at Charlotte. Baffle now heads to Kansas where he’s a two time winner and finished fifth here in the spring. He also has the second highest driver rating in the field, second only to Johnson. If Biffle is on his game this weekend, he could just be the driver to beat Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr. was second here in the spring, but his record at Kansas prior to that is less than stellar. In four of the last five races prior to this year, Truex finished outside the top 20. He also has the lowest driver rating among the Chase field. Never say never, but a win at Kansas is probably not in Truex’s future.

Tony Stewart has had a quiet Chase thus far. A 13th place finish last week at Charlotte didn’t help his cause. Heading to Kansas might give him some glimmer of hope; after all he does have two wins here and the third highest driver rating. But Stewart has finished outside the top 10 in his last two visits here including a 13th here in the spring. He’s been hot and he’s been cold here; lately he seems colder than hotter.

Jeff Gordon has been in the Chase then out of the Chase. He started at the bottom and made it as high as sixth. After finishing 18th last week at Charlotte Gordon fell three spots and now enters Kansas in ninth. Gordon does have two wins here, but those came a decade ago. He was 21st here in the spring and engine woes in this race last year relegated him to a 34th. Gordon is struggling and especially so at the 1.5 mile tracks. Don’t look to victory lane for Gordon this week.

Kevin Harvick had a career best finish of third here in 2010. Since then he’s finished sixth in the spring and in this race last year and 11th in the spring race last season. Harvick has been a no-show during the Chase and that probably won’t change Sunday.

Matt Kenseth has never won here, but that could change this weekend. Kenseth has finished fourth here in the last two races including the spring race. Kenseth won at Talladega and could definitely add another win this Sunday.

Dale Earnhardt Jr., will be setting out another race as he recovers from the effects of a concussion. It will be fun to watch his replacement Regan Smith try and keep the No. 88 Chevy in the top 10.

Non-Chasers.

Carl Edwards would love nothing more than to add to Kansas Speedway victory to his resume. The Missouri native considers Kansas his home track, but has never finished better than second here. He was ninth in the spring race but with nothing to lose, Edwards could go all the way Sunday.

Mark Martin running a part time schedule for Michael Waltrip Racing has been competitive in every race he’s entered. Martin has two top-five and four top-10 finishes plus a pole in his most recent six races. Martin is a Kansas winner (2005) and finished 10th in last year’s fall event.

Seven of the 13 races have been won from a top-10 starting position. Two drivers have won from the pole: Joe Nemechek in 2004 and Jimmie Johnson in 2008. The furthest back in the field that a race winner started was 25th, by Brad Keselowski last season.

Favorites:

Brad Keselowski
Greg Biffle
Matt Kenseth
Non-Chasers
Carl Edwards
Mark Martin

Odds to win the Hollywood Casino 400 (Courtesy of JustBet)

Denny Hamlin 5-1
Jimmie Johnson 5-1
Greg Biffle 7-1
Kasey Kahne 8-1
Kyle Busch 8-1
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Matt Kenseth 12-1
Jeff Gordon 12-1
Carl Edwards 12-1
Tony Stewart 15-1
Clint Bowyer 15-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-1
Mark Martin 15-1
Kevin Harvick 20-1
Regan Smith 30-1
Joey Lagano 40-1
Ryan Newman 60-1
Kurt Busch 75-1
Sam Hornish, Jr. 100-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-1
Jeff Burton 200-1
Paul Menard 200-1
Trevor Bayne 300-1
A.J. Allmendinger 300-1
Aric Almirola 300-1
Jamie McMurray 300-1
Juan Montoya 300-1
Bobby Labonte 300-1
Danica Patrick 300-1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50-1

**Udog** · 10-20-2012, 08:49 AM

CFL
Dunkel

Hamilton at Calgary
The Tiger-Cats look to take advantage of a Calgary team that is coming off a 32-21 win over Winnipeg and is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games following an ATS victory. Hamilton is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by only 5. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+7). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 20

Game 495-496: Montreal at Saskatchewan (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 111.771; Saskatchewan 118.390
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 5 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 3 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-3 1/2); Under

Game 2497-498: Hamilton at Calgary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 113.443; Calgary 119.041
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Calgary by 7; 56
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+7); Over

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 17

Saturday, October 20

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MONTREAL (9 - 6) at SASKATCHEWAN (8 - 7) - 10/20/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 95-63 ATS (+25.7 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 4-2 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HAMILTON (5 - 10) at CALGARY (9 - 6) - 10/20/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 4-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Home (34-26). Favorites (26-33), Over (27-31-2). West 19-9 vs East.
Home underdogs are 12-5 in the CFL this season (0-3 last week).

Montreal (9-6) @ Saskatchewan (8-7)-- Roughriders (+6) lost 28-17 at Montreal in Week 12, turning ball over three times in game they trailed 22-6 at half-- Riders are 5-2 SU at home, 2-2 as home favorites, winning in Regina by 16-3-52-5-6 points. Alouettes went long way towards clinching East last week when they beat Toronto 27-12; Als are 3-4 on road, 1-3 as road dogs. Faves covered six of their seven away games. Montreal allowed less than 20 points in four of its last five wins. Four of last five Montreal games stayed under the total.

Hamilton (5-10) @ Calgary (9-6)-- Stampeders were 2-3 when they won 31-20 at Hamilton (+4) in Week 7, game that started them on current 7-3 run; Stamps ran ball for 233 yards in that game, rallying back from 10-7 halftime deficit. Calgary is 5-2 at home, 3-4 as home favorites, winning home games by 28-3-1-41-24 points. TiCats failed to cover any of last five road games, losing by 7-12-14-22-15 points- they're 1-4 vs spread as road dogs. 11 of 15 Hamilton games went over total; under is 7-3-1 in Calgary's last 11. Stamps playing for home field in first round of playoffs.

CFL

Week 17

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Trend Report
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Saturday, October 20

3:30 PM
MONTREAL vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Montreal is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing Montreal
Saskatchewan is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

7:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. CALGARY
Hamilton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Calgary's last 14 games when playing Hamilton

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CFL

Week 17

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Canadian Bacon: Week 17 CFL betting preview
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With only three games remaining on the regular season schedule, the drive to the postseason continues for CFL teams in Week 17.

Montreal Alouettes at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-3.5, 53)

The Alouettes (9-7) are the only team in the East with a winning record after they avoided a third straight loss with a 24-12 victory over the Argos last week. Quarterback Anthony Calvillo has completed less than 54 percent of his pass attempts over the last five games, something that has happened only once during his previous 10 outings in 2012. The 19-year CFL veteran has looked mediocre at times this season and has voiced his frustration in dealings with the media over the last few weeks.

The Roughriders are one of the hottest teams in the league since the start of September, winning five of their last six games. However, Kory Sheets has cooled off as of late. The running back has scored just once in his last five games, which is a far cry from his efforts earlier in the campaign when he recorded at least one TD in five straight contests. The teams have played under the total in four of the last five meetings.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Calgary Stampeders (-7, 56)

The Tiger-Cats managed just three points through the first three quarters in front of their hometown fans, eventually leading to a 37-17 loss to British Columbia last week. The Hamilton defense surrendered 476 yards to the Lions and was stuck on the field for just under 40 minutes in the contest, limiting the opportunities for the league’s best offensive unit (29.2 points per game) led by QB Henry Burris.

Calgary has already secured a spot in the playoffs, thanks to a 9-6 mark after it took out Winnipeg last week. Quarterback Kevin Glenn led the way for the Stampeders, converting 21 of 29 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns. The Stamps won the most recent battle with the Tiger-Cats, who are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with Calgary, by a score of 31-20 in August

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Announcement

Saturday's Trends and Indexes - 10/20 (MLB, CFL, WNBA, Misc.)

Saturday's Trends and Indexes - 10/20 (MLB, CFL, WNBA, Misc.)

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