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Hope the run continues. Good luck.
I am short on time this week so the rest of my plays will be available on my website...prob wont have time to post here
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
1* 6 point tease: SF-1.5/Carolina +8
Play at SF -2.5 or better & Carolina +7.5 or better
You often hear recreational bettors say “teasing is for suckers”. Which, is true in college football and in some NFL plays. But, when teasing through 3 and 7 in the NFL, it is actually has a positive expected value. Hence, my play here.
I don’t see SF losing this game! Statistically, these 2 teams defenses are almost exactly the same, both dominant. But, SF has the advantage on the offensive side of the ball where they lead the league in YPR and are 7th in YPPA. The situational factors strongly favor SF with Sea coming off a huge home win and now traveling on a very short week, while SF is coming off a demoralizing home loss to the Giants. This puts the niners in a great trend position that is 80-29-3 ATS. The only reason I am not making the Niners a straight up play with the line is because my calculated line is SF -6, but I don’t see the niners losing this game straight up.
I love backing poor teams off their bye…which is the situation Carolina falls in. In fact, teams with a win percentage of less than .300 are 79-42 ATS as an underdog or pick after their bye week. Carolina will have success passing the ball, they average 8.6 YPPA (first in the NFL) and the Cowboys allow 7.6 YPPA (20th in NFL). Cam and Carolina are also strong (7th in YPR) in the run game and should be able to drain the clock and cover the 8 point spread. I don’t love the Panthers only getting 2 at home (I can see Dallas winning now that everyone is down on them), but I do at +8..
I am short on time this week so the rest of my plays will be available on my website...prob wont have time to post here
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
1* 6 point tease: SF-1.5/Carolina +8
Play at SF -2.5 or better & Carolina +7.5 or better
You often hear recreational bettors say “teasing is for suckers”. Which, is true in college football and in some NFL plays. But, when teasing through 3 and 7 in the NFL, it is actually has a positive expected value. Hence, my play here.
I don’t see SF losing this game! Statistically, these 2 teams defenses are almost exactly the same, both dominant. But, SF has the advantage on the offensive side of the ball where they lead the league in YPR and are 7th in YPPA. The situational factors strongly favor SF with Sea coming off a huge home win and now traveling on a very short week, while SF is coming off a demoralizing home loss to the Giants. This puts the niners in a great trend position that is 80-29-3 ATS. The only reason I am not making the Niners a straight up play with the line is because my calculated line is SF -6, but I don’t see the niners losing this game straight up.
I love backing poor teams off their bye…which is the situation Carolina falls in. In fact, teams with a win percentage of less than .300 are 79-42 ATS as an underdog or pick after their bye week. Carolina will have success passing the ball, they average 8.6 YPPA (first in the NFL) and the Cowboys allow 7.6 YPPA (20th in NFL). Cam and Carolina are also strong (7th in YPR) in the run game and should be able to drain the clock and cover the 8 point spread. I don’t love the Panthers only getting 2 at home (I can see Dallas winning now that everyone is down on them), but I do at +8..