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Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 8
Saturday's games
Top games
Nebraska hasn't played Northwestern since 66-17 beatdown in a bowl 12 years ago; Cornhuskers had week off after getting crushed 63-38 at Ohio State- they're 0-2 on road this year, despite scoring 30+ points in both games- they allowed 344-371 rushing yards in the losses. Nebraska is 9-5-1 as road favorite under Pelini; Wildcats are 8-9 as home dog under Fitzgerald. 6-1 Northwestern had an 11-point 4th quarter lead in its only loss; they've converted just 5 of last 22 on third down, after being 10-17 in previous game. Big Dozen home teams are 9-6, home dogs 2-1.
4-3 New Mexico won three of last four games, ran ball for 300+ yards in all four games; since '08, they're 7-14 vs spread as road dogs, losing last four and seven of last eight games vs Air Force, losing last five visits to Academy by average score of 32-19. Favorites are 8-3 vs spread in last 11 series tilts. Flyboys allowed 285-252 rushing yards in last two games, one of which went OT, the other decided by one point. Four of last five AFA games were decided by 6 or less points; they're 3-11 vs spread in last 14 games as a home favorite. MWC home favorites are 4-0.
Clemson beat Virginia Tech twice LY (23-3 at home, 38-10 in ACC title game) after losing previous five games vs Hokies; underdogs won SU in last four series games. Tigers are 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as HF; they scored 45.3 ppg in last four games vs I-A opponents, even scoring 37 in game they lost. Tech is 0-2-1 vs spread in last three games as dog; they're 2-3 SU in last five games, and were down 20-0 to Duke LW but rallied to win going away. ACC home favorites are 8-6 against spread. Clemson allowed 49-31-31 points in its last three games.
BYU-Notre Dame haven't met since '05; Irish are playing solid defense, allowing 25 points in last four games (Stanford's only TD last week was scored by defense, though refs helped Irish out in OT, too)- since 2003, they're 16-29-3 vs spread as home favorites- their home wins this year are by 3-7-7 points. BYU got beat at home by Oregon State's backup QB last week; they're 0-2 on road, losing 24-21 (-4) at Utah, then 7-6 at Boise State (+6.5). Cougars covered five of last seven games as road dog. Notre Dame best not look ahead to next week's Oklahoma game.
Stanford is 0-2 on road, scoring 13 points in both games; they're 9-2 last 11 games as road favorite. This rivalry was moved here from its longtime spot on Rivalry Saturday because of its being close to Pac-12 title game; Stanford won 31-28/48-14 last couple years, after 1-7 series skid. Cal is 3-4 but won its last two games, allowing 17 points in each; Bears are 1-6 as home dog, since 2005. Cardinal lost four of last five visits here; they played in OT last two Saturdays, getting hosed on goal-line call in loss at ND last week. Underdogs covered four of last six series games.
Michigan State won/covered last four games with Michigan, winning last two visits here, 34-17/35-21; faves are 6-3-1 vs spread in last 10 series games. Wolverines won last two games, scoring 44-45 points, since loss at Notre Dame; they're 6-3 as home favorite under Hoke. State has been hurting on offense, scoring 16 or less points in three of last five games (2-3 SU, 0-5 vs spread; were favored in all five). Michigan outscored its last four opponents 61-6 in second half. Four of last five games for both sides stayed under total.
TCU is home dog for first time since 2006; since '03, they're 4-0 as home dog, but are also 1-6 in last seven games overall. as a dog. Brutal stretch of games starts here for Frogs, who might not be favored again this year. TCU won 49-21 at Baylor last week behind backup redshirt freshman QB Boykin- they've gained 961 TY in last two games. Texas Tech qon both its road games, is now 10-3-1 vs spread in last 14 games as a road favorite- they won at Texas State (58-10, -19), Iowa State (24-13, -2) in only two road games this year. Big X road teams are 10-5 vs spread in conference play; road favorites are 4-4.
Oregon State is unlikely 5-0, having been underdog in four games, away for three; Beavers won 42-24 at BYU last week with backup QB Vaz in lineup for starter Mannion (knee) who may be back here. OSU lost 27-8 (+5) at Utah LY, getting outrushed 225-32 in first meeting as conference rivals. Utes allowed 32 ppg in losing last three games, by 30-10-7; they are 6-5 in last 11 tries as road underdog, 0-3 SU on road this year, with losses by 7-30-7 points. OSU is just 2-9 vs spread in last 11 games as a home favorite; they've got home wins this year, by 3-13 points. Pac-12 home favorites are 4-7 vs spread in conference play.
Kansas State is 6-0, with road wins at Oklahoma/Iowa State; they've got terrific senior QB and +11 turnover ratio; they're 14-2 vs spread in their last 16 games as a road underdog. Wildcats already faced solid passing offenses in Miami/Oklahoma- they defend better than West Virginia-- in WVU's last three games, they allowed 63-49-45 points, so they're trying to outscore teams. Mountaineers are 3-5 under Holgorsen as home faves they played Baylor-Texas-Tex Tech last three weeks, brutal stretch for a college team. Big X home favorites are just 1-6 against the spread.
Texas A&M allowed 57 points to La Tech in Shreveport, will have to do lot better here, vs LSU team that had tough games vs Florida/So Carolina last two Saturdays, and has Alabama on deck after its bye. LSU scored a total of only 18 points in splitting pair of road games- they're 12-9-2 as road favorites under Miles, but 0-2 this year. Aggies had to hang on last week for 59-57 win after leading 34-7; since '04, they're 9-5-1 vs spread as home underdogs, and are dog here for first time in '12. A&M won five games in row since opening 20-17 loss to Florida, with La Tech best team they've beaten. SEC home underdogs are 4-5 against spread.
Spurrier's Gamecocks are 5-2 vs spread vs Florida, his alma mater, with 17-12/36-14 wins last two years, after being 1-12 in previous 13 games with Gators. Carolina had 215-239 rushing yards in those games, but not sure if Lattimore is playing here. Carolina played Georgia/LSU last two weeks, so tough scheduling spot for them; SC is 13-8-1 as road dog with Spurrier as coach. Florida has outscored opponents 98-23 in second half; they're 4-3 as home favorites under Muschamp, 1-1 this year. SEC home favorites are 10-6 vs spread this season. All three of Florida's games in The Swamp stayed under the total.
UL-Monroe won last three games since losing 47-42 to Baylor, 31-28 in OT at Auburn; this is 5th road game in seven weeks for Warhawks, who are 23-15 as road dogs since '06, 8-6 under coach Berry. ULM won two of three vs Western Kentucky, with all three games decided by 5 or less points, and road team winning last two. Hilltoppers won four games in row since 35-0 loss at Alabama; they're 2-4 as home favorites since they moved to I-AA. Monroe allowed total of 41 points in last three games. Sun Belt home teams are 3-9 vs spread in conference play, 2-5 if favored. Western Kentucky has covered its last 15 games overall.
Middle Tennessee won 49-28 at Ga Tech, go for another BCS scalp here, vs 6-0 Mississippi State squad that beat Tennessee at home last week and visits #1 Alabama next. Blue Raiders are 4-2 but lost to McNeese St, a I-AA team; they scored in last minute to win 34-30 at FIU last week- they're 13-15 as road underdogs under Stockstill. Miss State is 7-4 in its last 11 games as a home favorite. Teams haven't met since 2009, when Bulldogs (-4.5) beat MTSU 27-9. SEC non-conference home favorites are 6-13 vs spread. Sun Belt road underdogs are 12-4.
Other Notes
-- Kentucky is 6-14-1 vs spread in last 21 SEC home games.
-- Nebraska is 9-5-1 vs spread in game following last 15 losses.
-- Central Michigan covered only two of its last 20 games.
-- Temple is 10-3-1 vs spread in last 14 home games as a home dog.
-- Iowa covered seven of its last nine games with Penn State.
-- Underdog is 8-3 vs spread in East Carolina-UAB series.
-- Baylor beat Texas last two years, 48-24/30-22.
-- Iowa State covered eight of last 12 as a Big X road underdog.
-- NC State covered its last seven games coming off a bye.
-- Memphis is 6-12 vs spread in last 18 games as a home dog.
-- Auburn has been outscored 62-3 in the fourth quarter.
-- 10 of last 11 Florida State-Miami games were decided by TD or less.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 8
Saturday's games
Top games
Nebraska hasn't played Northwestern since 66-17 beatdown in a bowl 12 years ago; Cornhuskers had week off after getting crushed 63-38 at Ohio State- they're 0-2 on road this year, despite scoring 30+ points in both games- they allowed 344-371 rushing yards in the losses. Nebraska is 9-5-1 as road favorite under Pelini; Wildcats are 8-9 as home dog under Fitzgerald. 6-1 Northwestern had an 11-point 4th quarter lead in its only loss; they've converted just 5 of last 22 on third down, after being 10-17 in previous game. Big Dozen home teams are 9-6, home dogs 2-1.
4-3 New Mexico won three of last four games, ran ball for 300+ yards in all four games; since '08, they're 7-14 vs spread as road dogs, losing last four and seven of last eight games vs Air Force, losing last five visits to Academy by average score of 32-19. Favorites are 8-3 vs spread in last 11 series tilts. Flyboys allowed 285-252 rushing yards in last two games, one of which went OT, the other decided by one point. Four of last five AFA games were decided by 6 or less points; they're 3-11 vs spread in last 14 games as a home favorite. MWC home favorites are 4-0.
Clemson beat Virginia Tech twice LY (23-3 at home, 38-10 in ACC title game) after losing previous five games vs Hokies; underdogs won SU in last four series games. Tigers are 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as HF; they scored 45.3 ppg in last four games vs I-A opponents, even scoring 37 in game they lost. Tech is 0-2-1 vs spread in last three games as dog; they're 2-3 SU in last five games, and were down 20-0 to Duke LW but rallied to win going away. ACC home favorites are 8-6 against spread. Clemson allowed 49-31-31 points in its last three games.
BYU-Notre Dame haven't met since '05; Irish are playing solid defense, allowing 25 points in last four games (Stanford's only TD last week was scored by defense, though refs helped Irish out in OT, too)- since 2003, they're 16-29-3 vs spread as home favorites- their home wins this year are by 3-7-7 points. BYU got beat at home by Oregon State's backup QB last week; they're 0-2 on road, losing 24-21 (-4) at Utah, then 7-6 at Boise State (+6.5). Cougars covered five of last seven games as road dog. Notre Dame best not look ahead to next week's Oklahoma game.
Stanford is 0-2 on road, scoring 13 points in both games; they're 9-2 last 11 games as road favorite. This rivalry was moved here from its longtime spot on Rivalry Saturday because of its being close to Pac-12 title game; Stanford won 31-28/48-14 last couple years, after 1-7 series skid. Cal is 3-4 but won its last two games, allowing 17 points in each; Bears are 1-6 as home dog, since 2005. Cardinal lost four of last five visits here; they played in OT last two Saturdays, getting hosed on goal-line call in loss at ND last week. Underdogs covered four of last six series games.
Michigan State won/covered last four games with Michigan, winning last two visits here, 34-17/35-21; faves are 6-3-1 vs spread in last 10 series games. Wolverines won last two games, scoring 44-45 points, since loss at Notre Dame; they're 6-3 as home favorite under Hoke. State has been hurting on offense, scoring 16 or less points in three of last five games (2-3 SU, 0-5 vs spread; were favored in all five). Michigan outscored its last four opponents 61-6 in second half. Four of last five games for both sides stayed under total.
TCU is home dog for first time since 2006; since '03, they're 4-0 as home dog, but are also 1-6 in last seven games overall. as a dog. Brutal stretch of games starts here for Frogs, who might not be favored again this year. TCU won 49-21 at Baylor last week behind backup redshirt freshman QB Boykin- they've gained 961 TY in last two games. Texas Tech qon both its road games, is now 10-3-1 vs spread in last 14 games as a road favorite- they won at Texas State (58-10, -19), Iowa State (24-13, -2) in only two road games this year. Big X road teams are 10-5 vs spread in conference play; road favorites are 4-4.
Oregon State is unlikely 5-0, having been underdog in four games, away for three; Beavers won 42-24 at BYU last week with backup QB Vaz in lineup for starter Mannion (knee) who may be back here. OSU lost 27-8 (+5) at Utah LY, getting outrushed 225-32 in first meeting as conference rivals. Utes allowed 32 ppg in losing last three games, by 30-10-7; they are 6-5 in last 11 tries as road underdog, 0-3 SU on road this year, with losses by 7-30-7 points. OSU is just 2-9 vs spread in last 11 games as a home favorite; they've got home wins this year, by 3-13 points. Pac-12 home favorites are 4-7 vs spread in conference play.
Kansas State is 6-0, with road wins at Oklahoma/Iowa State; they've got terrific senior QB and +11 turnover ratio; they're 14-2 vs spread in their last 16 games as a road underdog. Wildcats already faced solid passing offenses in Miami/Oklahoma- they defend better than West Virginia-- in WVU's last three games, they allowed 63-49-45 points, so they're trying to outscore teams. Mountaineers are 3-5 under Holgorsen as home faves they played Baylor-Texas-Tex Tech last three weeks, brutal stretch for a college team. Big X home favorites are just 1-6 against the spread.
Texas A&M allowed 57 points to La Tech in Shreveport, will have to do lot better here, vs LSU team that had tough games vs Florida/So Carolina last two Saturdays, and has Alabama on deck after its bye. LSU scored a total of only 18 points in splitting pair of road games- they're 12-9-2 as road favorites under Miles, but 0-2 this year. Aggies had to hang on last week for 59-57 win after leading 34-7; since '04, they're 9-5-1 vs spread as home underdogs, and are dog here for first time in '12. A&M won five games in row since opening 20-17 loss to Florida, with La Tech best team they've beaten. SEC home underdogs are 4-5 against spread.
Spurrier's Gamecocks are 5-2 vs spread vs Florida, his alma mater, with 17-12/36-14 wins last two years, after being 1-12 in previous 13 games with Gators. Carolina had 215-239 rushing yards in those games, but not sure if Lattimore is playing here. Carolina played Georgia/LSU last two weeks, so tough scheduling spot for them; SC is 13-8-1 as road dog with Spurrier as coach. Florida has outscored opponents 98-23 in second half; they're 4-3 as home favorites under Muschamp, 1-1 this year. SEC home favorites are 10-6 vs spread this season. All three of Florida's games in The Swamp stayed under the total.
UL-Monroe won last three games since losing 47-42 to Baylor, 31-28 in OT at Auburn; this is 5th road game in seven weeks for Warhawks, who are 23-15 as road dogs since '06, 8-6 under coach Berry. ULM won two of three vs Western Kentucky, with all three games decided by 5 or less points, and road team winning last two. Hilltoppers won four games in row since 35-0 loss at Alabama; they're 2-4 as home favorites since they moved to I-AA. Monroe allowed total of 41 points in last three games. Sun Belt home teams are 3-9 vs spread in conference play, 2-5 if favored. Western Kentucky has covered its last 15 games overall.
Middle Tennessee won 49-28 at Ga Tech, go for another BCS scalp here, vs 6-0 Mississippi State squad that beat Tennessee at home last week and visits #1 Alabama next. Blue Raiders are 4-2 but lost to McNeese St, a I-AA team; they scored in last minute to win 34-30 at FIU last week- they're 13-15 as road underdogs under Stockstill. Miss State is 7-4 in its last 11 games as a home favorite. Teams haven't met since 2009, when Bulldogs (-4.5) beat MTSU 27-9. SEC non-conference home favorites are 6-13 vs spread. Sun Belt road underdogs are 12-4.
Other Notes
-- Kentucky is 6-14-1 vs spread in last 21 SEC home games.
-- Nebraska is 9-5-1 vs spread in game following last 15 losses.
-- Central Michigan covered only two of its last 20 games.
-- Temple is 10-3-1 vs spread in last 14 home games as a home dog.
-- Iowa covered seven of its last nine games with Penn State.
-- Underdog is 8-3 vs spread in East Carolina-UAB series.
-- Baylor beat Texas last two years, 48-24/30-22.
-- Iowa State covered eight of last 12 as a Big X road underdog.
-- NC State covered its last seven games coming off a bye.
-- Memphis is 6-12 vs spread in last 18 games as a home dog.
-- Auburn has been outscored 62-3 in the fourth quarter.
-- 10 of last 11 Florida State-Miami games were decided by TD or less.
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