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**Udog** · 10-15-2012, 08:51 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- If you take away Jose Valverde, which you can't but if you did, Detroit pitchers have thrown 40.1 consecutive scoreless innings.

-- I'm tired of guys on really good teams always saying "No one respects us. No one gives us a chance." People are frontrunners, they always think the good teams will win. Find a better way to motivate yourself.

-- Greedy bastard update: Gas stayed at $4.14/$4.12 a gallon at the two Mobil stations near my house, which means the gutless bastards across street at Sunoco's over-priced gas is at $4.10 a gallon. Like it matters.

-- When you combine the salaries of the nine position players Baltimore used Friday, it is less than what Alex Rodriguez was paid ($30M) in '12.

-- FOX's Chris Myers made a strong statement Sunday, saying that Joe Philbin, the new Miami coach, was a huge loss for the Packers this year. Most times, network guys just suggest such things; Myers came right out and said it, emphatically.

-- Bronx Bombers have played 169 games this year, 12 against Detroit; Joe Girardi got tossed in four of those 12, only one of the other 157.

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a NFL Sunday....

13) Want to hear a staggering stat? NFC teams have combined to go 32-5 against spread this season as an underdog; 9-1 in division games, 23-4 outside the division. AFC teams are 19-24, 1-5 in divisional games.

12) George Allen was fond of saying, "More games are lost than won." He would've enjoyed today's games, and not just because Redskins won. Five teams were -2 or worse in turnovers; all five lost.

Six teams scored a TD on defense/special teams; Kansas City-Tampa Bay each had one in their game- the other four all won their games.

11) Kansas City is pathetic; they've turned ball over 20 times, 2+ times in every game. Losing 38-10 to the Buccaneers is a call for heads to roll.

10) Ravens won 31-29 but may have lost Ray Lewis/LaDarius Webb for the year with injuries; suddenly, Baltimore may be an offense-driven team.

9) All four teams in the AFC East are 3-3. Rams are 3-3, and are in last place in NFC West, behind three 4-2 teams.

8) Giants had a 20-yard edge in average field position in a romp over the 49ers at Candlestick; Giants/Dallas were only two teams with 10+ yard edge in field position so far this week. When the 49ers don't get turnovers from their defense, they're pretty much like anyone else.

7) Kevin Kolb got hurt, John Skelton rallied the Cardinals from behind, but then threw an awful INT in OT, as Buffalo came west and pulled out a 19-16 win in the desert. Jay Feely tied the game with a 61-yard FG for the Redbirds, who lost for the first time in their last 10 games that were decided by less than seven points.

6) Oakland outgained the Falcons 474-286, but somehow lost 23-20 at the gun in the Georgia Dome; they outrushed Atlanta, 149-45, picked Ryan off three times but also turned ball over three times themselves.

5) Cincinnati looked good after a 3-1 start, but now they've lost to Miami and Cleveland in consecutive weeks. Bengals outgained Cleveland by 110 yards, but NFL teams that are -3 in turnovers seldom win.

4) Dolphins' WR Brian Hartline was leading NFL in receiving yardage, but didn't catch a pass against St Louis; special teams killed the Rams, as rookie kicker Zuerlein had his first bad day as a pro-- they also fumbled a kickoff that proved costly in a 17-14 game.

3) Redskins broke their 8-game home losing streak, running ball for 183 yards, passing for 176 in a 38-26 win over Minnesota.

2) Three teams had 100+ penalty yards Sunday; they all won.

1) Tom Brady wasn't good in New England's 24-23 loss at Seattle; Patriots had ball in Seahawks' red zone six times, scored one TD, three FGs, with an unspeakably bad intentional grounding penalty costing them an easy FG at the end of the half, and another INT near the Seattle goal line.

How the Patriot defense let Sidney Rice behind them with a 23-17 lead in the last 1:20 is unfathomable. Seattle averaged 9.8 yards per pass attempt, same team that had scored two TDs on 21 drives in previous two games.

**Udog** · 10-15-2012, 08:52 AM

College football odds: Week 8 opening line report

Stock up on Doritos and Budweiser. College football will be one heck of a ride this week, starting Thursday and finishing up late Saturday night.

Oregon and its fastbreak offense that never rests gets it rolling Thursday night at Tempe in a Pac-12 North-South crossover game - and that’s just an appetizer. Several key games will have an impact on rankings, BCS standings, league titles and the Heisman voting.

Here’s an early look at several important games, with help from Peter Korner, founder of the Las Vegas oddsmaking firm The Sports Club.

Oregon Ducks (-12) at Arizona State Sun Devils

Oregon (6-0 SU, 2-4 ATS) has beefed up its numbers with a soft non-league schedule and three soft Pac-12 pop tarts, but the fun starts in Tempe against the Sun Devils (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS). Both teams were off this weekend.

“All of my (five-member) staff were pretty much in the same spot on this game,” Korner told Covers. “One had it at -11.5, and one had it at 13, so we settled at 12. I can imagine that we’ll see some money on Arizona State as a double-digit home underdog.”

South Carolina Gamecocks (+3) at Florida Gators

The old ball coach may have outsmarted himself with that onside kick late against LSU, possibly ceding 30 to 35 yards in field position even though the Gamecocks (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) had two timeouts in their pocket.

“We see this as basically two even teams,” says Korner, “with Florida getting the 3-point home edge. That’s a tough place to play.”

All eyes will be on Florida QB Jeff Driskell, who ran for 177 yards on Saturday against Vanderbilt (Tim Tebow’s best was 166).

Kansas State Wildcats (+4) at West Virginia Mountaineers

The bloom is off the rose after WVU stepped in it at Lubbock Saturday, but the Mountaineers can scramble the Big 12 race big-time with a win at home against unbeaten (and 4-1-1 ATS) Kansas State.

“This should be a fun game to watch,” says Korner.

And why not? K-State has been over 50 points three times, and WVU is scouring dormitory cafeterias for defensive players.

“We had some variance of opinion on this one, with opinion from WVU -1.5 to 6, and we settled at 4,” says Korner.

The O/U will be out Tuesday and don’t be surprised if it’s more than 70 points.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-4) at Temple Owls

Not much love anywhere for the Big East, but the conference now has three teams in the Top 25, and that was before Rutgers, Louisville and Cincinnati all won on Saturday. Rutgers is 4-2 ATS (6-0 SU) and is getting props after wins over Syracuse and Arkansas.

“We were all in the same ballpark on this game,” says Korner. “Low number.”

**Udog** · 10-15-2012, 08:53 AM

MLB
Dunkel

St. Louis at San Francisco
The Giants look to build on their 9-2 record in Ryan Vogelsong's last 11 starts as a home favorite. San Francisco is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 15

Game 907-908: St. Louis at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.946; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 17.015
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 15

Giants are now 0-3 at home in playoffs, outscored 20-6; road team won all six of their playoff games. Vogelsong is 2-0, 1.64 in his last four starts; he blanked St Louis on three hits for seven innings August 8. Cardinals won 13 of their last 18 games- they're 4-3 against Giants this season, 2-1 here. Carpenter has a 2.78 RA in four starts this year; his win at Washington last week was his first in '12. Visiting teams are 16-9 in the playoffs so far this month.

MLB

Monday, October 15

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Trend Report
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8:07 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games

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**Udog** · 10-15-2012, 07:39 PM

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 15

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ST LOUIS (93 - 76) at SAN FRANCISCO (97 - 71) - 8:05 PM
CHRIS CARPENTER (R) vs. RYAN VOGELSONG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 93-76 (-1.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 60-57 (-11.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 30-37 (-14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 93-76 (-1.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 167-103 (+61.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 97-71 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 60-40 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 44-27 (+15.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 97-71 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
VOGELSONG is 20-12 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
VOGELSONG is 20-12 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
VOGELSONG is 14-5 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
VOGELSONG is 19-8 (+11.5 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 53-38 (+15.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 18-10 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.
CARPENTER is 21-11 (+11.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997. (Team's Record)
CARPENTER is 12-3 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-21 (-12.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-4 (-0.3 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

CHRIS CARPENTER vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
CARPENTER is 4-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.57 and a WHIP of 1.321.
His team's record is 6-2 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.4 units)

RYAN VOGELSONG vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
VOGELSONG is 1-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 6.83 and a WHIP of 1.552.
His team's record is 1-5 (-4.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)

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**Udog** · 10-15-2012, 07:40 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, October 15

National League

NL Championship Series, Game Two (St. Louis Leads, 1-0)
St. Louis at San Francisco, 8:05 ET FOX
Carpenter: 4-12 TSR pitching off BB team wins
Vogelsong: 11-3 TSR after allowing 1 or 0 ER's last start

**Udog** · 10-15-2012, 07:43 PM

MLB

Monday, October 15

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NLCS betting preview: Cardinals at Giants
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St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants (-111, 6.5)

St. Louis leads series 1-0.

The San Francisco Giants are still seeking their first win at home in the postseason as they prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series. The Giants dropped the best-of-seven series opener 6-4 on Sunday when David Freese and Carlos Beltran each hit two-run homers to lead the Cardinals’ attack. San Francisco, which is in danger of losing its first two games at home for the second straight playoff series, turns to Ryan Vogelsong in Game 2. Matt Cain will start Game 3, with Tim Lincecum expected to start Game 4 despite throwing two scoreless innings in relief on Sunday. The Giants’ rotation hasn’t recorded a quality start through six postseason games, and Madison Bumgarner’s status is in doubt after another shaky outing in Game 1.

While the Giants have been outscored 20-6 in their three postseason losses at AT&T Park, the Cardinals quickly made themselves comfortable on Sunday. Freese’s home run pushed his career postseason total to six, and Beltran’s blast was his 14th career postseason home run in 108 at-bats. Freese has 25 RBI in his first 25 career postseason games, tying him for second all time behind Lou Gehrig, who had 32. After struggling early in the season, the Cardinals’ bullpen is peaking at the right time. Six St. Louis relievers tossed 5 1/3 scoreless innings on Sunday, with Jason Motte recording his second save of the postseason. Second baseman Daniel Descalso, a native of the San Francisco Bay Area, had two hits in Game 1 and is batting .308 (8-for-26) in the postseason.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, FOX

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s under clear skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 9 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants RH Ryan Vogelsong (0-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Chris Carpenter (1-0, 0.00)

Vogelsong earned a no-decision in his first career playoff start in Game 3 of the NLDS against Cincinnati, giving up one run on three hits over five innings. His 2.86 ERA in 15 regular-season home starts ranked 10th in the NL, and he finished the regular season with a 0.53 ERA over his final three starts. Beltran is 4-for-11 with a home run against Vogelsong, who threw seven scoreless innings and gave up three hits in a 15-0 win at Busch Stadium on Aug. 8.

Carpenter is set to make his fifth start of the season and the sixth NLCS start of his career after pitching 5 2/3 shutout innings in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Nationals. He’s 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA in eight career starts against the Giants, including 2-0 with a 4.26 ERA at AT&T Park. He’s one win shy of tying Greg Maddux and Curt Schilling for the fifth-most playoff victories in history (11). Hunter Pence is 5-for-27 with seven strikeouts against Carpenter, who missed the first 150 games of the season with a right shoulder injury.

TRENDS:

*Cardinals are 6-1 in Carpenter’s last seven starts vs. Giants.
* Cardinals are 5-0 in their last five games as an underdog.
* Giants are 1-4 in their last five playoff games as a favorite.
* Over is 7-0 in Giants last seven playoff home games.

UMP TRENDS-Chris Guccione

* Over is 4-0-1 in Guccione’s last five games behind home plate.
* Giants are 4-1 in their last five games with Guccione behind home plate.
* Over is 4-0 in Guccione’s last four Monday games behind home plate.
* Home team is 5-0 in Guccione’s last five games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Beltran’s .824 slugging percentage in 29 playoff games is the highest in baseball history.

2. Lincecum has thrown 8 1/3 relief innings in the postseason, allowing three hits, two walks and one earned run with nine strikeouts.

3. The Cardinals’ Yadier Molina has 57 postseason hits, tied for third all-time among catchers.

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**Udog** · 10-15-2012, 08:05 PM

NFL odds: Week 7 opening line report

Week 6 of the NFL season was the betting equivalent of coming across the middle and getting your bell rung by a helmet-to-helmet hit – WTF just happened?

If you were one of the public players siding with the favorites, you had your pockets turned inside out. Heading into the Monday night game, underdogs went a silly 11-2 ATS in Week 6.

The New York Giants’ win over the San Francisco 49ers, the Seattle Seahawks’ shocker over the New England Patriots, and the Green Bay Packers’ triumph over the Houston Texans were the hardest games to swallow if you gladly gave the points.

Those three losers were supposed to be the cream of the crop, as far as the Super Bowl futures odds were concerned. And now, heading into Week 7, football bettors’ heads are spinning like Barry Sanders in the open field.

“I think with the case of Green Bay-Houston, it says more about not underestimating the Packers,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Covers. “Some places dropped their odds a lot before that win. That was a statement from Green Bay in a must-win situation and it puts them back on schedule. Another big win like that and you'll see Green Bay's odds make a significant jump.”

Green Bay was set as a suggested 6-point road favorite in St. Louis for Week 7 while Houston, off its first loss of the year, faces the Baltimore Ravens as 5-point home chalk Sunday.

The Ravens will be without CB Lardarius Webb and LB Ray Lewis, the team’s emotional leader on and off the field. Baltimore’s defense is already without the services of LB Terrell Suggs and is a shell of its former self - ranked 26th in the league.

“I don’t have a point value for him,” Korner says of Lewis’ impact to the spread. “It’s tough to put a value on what he does. (The Ravens) are down two very good players but we have to look at their impact on a play-to-play basis, and you can’t really put a value on that."

"Lewis isn’t the same player he used to be, but he is a very valuable player," says Korner. "I'm not factoring his absence into the odds and I don't think bettors will either."

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-7, 49.5)

The Giants, who thumped the Niners in San Francisco, are 7-point home favorites against the Washington Redskins. Korner says his group of oddsmakers brought spreads between -6.5 and -9 to the table but settled on a touchdown, trying to estimate the public’s opinion on this NFC East rivalry game.

“The Giants are obviously one of the top teams,” says Korner. “They perform so well in crunch time at the end of the season but have the ability to have a stinker earlier on. Washington played a good game, so it’s making these divisional games very tough for gamblers to predict.”

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.5, 47)

The Patriots let a 13-point lead slip away in Seattle Sunday and now return home to face a divisional foe, which has looked strong in its past two outings. New England is the biggest favorite on the Week 7 board, giving 10.5 points to the New York Jets.

“This is too high,” admits Korner. “I originally came with -8 because I think the Jets will keep it close, but some of our other guys came in as high as -12. I changed it to -9 and sent out -9.5, but some places have gone as high as -11 with this. There’s a big difference between 9.5 and 10.5. That’s a lot of points for dog players.”

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-5, 47.5)

The Bears are coming off the bye week and hosting a Lions squad that pulled out a must-win game against the Philadelphia Eagles in overtime Sunday.

“This is such a good game,” says Korner. “The Lions are a good team and much better than their record indicates, but Chicago is a really good team. This will go up before it comes down. I see this line coming in around -6 on Monday.”

As for the total, Korner says these NFC North rivalries always bring up memories of grind-it-out defenses and tough runs. But the total could go up with the way the Lions and Bears can strike on offense -plus the appeal of the over during the Monday night games. The total opened as low as 47 at some online books while the Sports Club sent out a suggested number of 48 points.

Announcement

Monday's Trends and Indexes - 10/15 (MLB, CFL, WNBA, Misc.)

Monday's Trends and Indexes - 10/15 (MLB, CFL, WNBA, Misc.)

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