The Bum's NLCS & ALCS Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Monday, October 22

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NLCS Game 7 betting preview: Cardinals at Giants
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St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants (-138, 7)

Series is tied 3-3

The San Francisco Giants look to complete their second historic comeback of the postseason when they face the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series.

The Giants evened the series at three games apiece on Sunday with a 6-1 win behind seven strong innings from Ryan Vogelsong. San Francisco, which rallied from an 0-2 deficit to win the best-of-five NL Division Series, is seeking to become the seventh team to win an LCS after trailing 3-1 since the best-of-seven format was introduced in 1985. The Giants have won five straight when facing possible elimination during this postseason, but their 0-5 record in best-of-7 deciding games is the worst in major-league history.

The defending World Series champion Cardinals have won six straight winner-take-all games, and they’re hoping to have left fielder Matt Holliday available after he missed Game 6 with a back spasms. St. Louis has struggled to generate much offense this series, scoring just one run in its past 20 innings. The Cardinals’ defense has also been an issue, with several key errors contributing to an NLCS-record 10 unearned runs allowed.

The Giants have outscored St. Louis 10-1 in the last two games, and Marco Scutaro is leading the attack. The veteran second baseman is batting .458 (11-for-24) with five runs scored in the series, but the Giants are still waiting for Hunter Pence to produce in the middle of the order. Pence was 1-for-4 with three strikeouts on Sunday, and he’s 3-for-23 (.130) in the series. The Game 7 pitching matchup features the Giants’ Matt Cain against Kyle Lohse in a rematch of Game 3, when the Cardinals won 3-1.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, FOX

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for an 85 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow west at 13 mph earlier in the evening.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Kyle Lohse (1-0, 1.59 ERA) vs. Giants RH Matt Cain (0-1, 4.05)

Lohse will be looking to improve his control after allowing one run with five walks on 108 pitches over 5 2/3 innings in Game 3. Pence is 14-for-50 (.280) against Lohse, who is 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three starts this postseason. Lohse was 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 33 starts and a career-best 211 innings during the regular season, and he’s 3-2 with a 3.78 ERA in five career starts against the Giants.

Cain didn’t allow an unearned run over 21 1/3 innings in the 2010 playoffs during the Giants’ World Series run, but he hasn’t been quite as sharp during this postseason. He’s 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in three starts after yielding three runs over 6 2/3 innings in Game 3. Carlos Beltran is 7-for-19 with a home run against Cain, who is 2-3 with a 4.94 ERA in eight career starts against St. Louis.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Francisco.
* Under is 5-2 in Cains last 7 starts vs. Cardinals.
* Cardinals are 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss.
* Giants are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a home favorite.

UMP TRENDS - Gary Darling:

* Road team is 4-0 in Darlings last four games behind home plate.
* Home team is 16-7 in Darlings last 23 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
* Giants are 2-12 in their last 14 games with Darling behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Giants are 5-1 when scoring four or more runs in the postseason and 1-4 when scoring three runs or fewer. San Francisco is also 5-1 when scoring first this postseason.

2. St. Louis OF Jon Jay is batting just .184 (9-for-49) this postseason after going hitless in four at-bats in Game 6.

3. Giants C Buster Posey went 0-for-4 on Sunday and is 3-for-22 (.136) with no extra base hits and six strikeouts in the series.

[StarDust Bum]

2012 NLCS: 5 Reasons the St. Louis Cardinals Will Win the NL Pennant in Game 7

So here we go. Just as I assumed before the series began, the 2012 NLCS has become a seven-game classic. The matchup on paper favors the Giants as their ace Matt Cain faces Kyle Lohse.

But don't be fooled by first glances. In spite of how the lineup looks on paper, there are some keys that I feel will ultimately carry St. Louis into their second straight World Series.

Here first, is key No. 5...

Believe it or not, it does matter. For each team's perspective lineups (assuming Matt Holliday plays tomorrow night), there is no contest in Game 7 experience: St. Louis would has seven starters who have played in a Game 7 (only Pete Kozma hasn't played in one).

By contrast, the Giants have no one with experience in a Game 7. Not Pagan, not Scutaro, not Posey, not even Pence or Blanco. History says, it does matter. In four of the last five postseason game Game 7's, the team with the most experience has prevailed (only the '08 Rays buck that trend).

What this says is, in a one game, winner take all setting, the pressure is different from "lose or you go home." The stakes are high for both teams, which changes the degree with which the game is played. Expect both managers to make some earlier decisions than normal. Case in point...

Here's a hypothetical: Let's say that Kyle Lohse throws a ton of pitches and wriggles out of a jam or two. Would it surprise you at all if Mike Matheny turned to his bullpen early and didn't risk Lohse getting into a situation he couldn't get out of?

I could easily see that happening. As such, having Wainwright available to pitch could be huge. While he hasn't been great on the road this year (four-plus ERA), Wainwright was absolutely filthy against San Francisco in Game 4.

And while the Giants could counter with Tim Lincecum (though it is doubtful with Cain pitching) right now, the advantage in the long relief goes to the Cardinals. So it would behoove St. Louis to get ahead early.

The combined nine "regulars" (Matt Carpenter included) for St. Louis hit a combined 33-for- 112 lifetime against Matt Cain. That's a .295 batting average. What that means is the Cardinals will have their chances to score.

It also means a slight deficit won't have the same type of foreboding that falling behind Ryan Vogelsong did. Over the last two years, the Cardinals have been more than just resilient: They have been very good. Their championship resolve will get tested against an elite pitcher tomorrow night. Expect them to respond like champions.

Some people are just night owls. In 2012, that has certainly applied to Kyle Lohse. Of his 16 regular-season wins, 12 of them have occurred in night games. As a matter of fact, he is tangibly better at night than in the daytime.

Let's compare: During the day, Lohse was 4-1 with a 3.55 ERA in 2012. But at night, he was a sparkling 12-2 with a 2.56 ERA. His effectiveness seems to have continued as such in the postseason.

Against the Nationals, Lohse went seven strong innings in Game 4 in Washington, leaving with a 1-1 tie. That was a night game. In the midday against San Francisco in Game 3 of this series, Lohse wriggled like bait on a fishing hook, but escaped after 5.2 innings with just one run allowed.

It is not a reach at this point: The guy is appreciably better at night. The San Francisco sunset is at approximately 6:22 p.m. PST. If the Cardinals have a lead at that time, they will win the pennant. You heard it here first.

Ultimately, the deciding factor here is what I will call in an unoriginal manner: "Cardinals Magic." This team has whatever that "it" is supposed to be. This was never going to be an easy series. The Giants are in many ways, a mirror image of St. Louis. I said that before the series began as well.

So how do you make a decision when two teams are so evenly matched? For me, it is going to be recent history. The Giants have won their last three elimination games, all against the Reds. The Cardinals have won their last eight, against the Astros, Phillies, Rangers, Braves and Nationals.

In other words, it hasn't mattered what scenario, what the circumstances and what the adversity, this team has found a way to win. What I will say is, they better not find themselves playing from behind too long. That is on Kyle Lohse. As I have shown you earlier, I don't worry so much about that.

What it will come down to is this gritty bunch looking the Giants in the eyes, staring down perhaps the most hostile of their road crowds during this run, and doing it one last time. They have been down to their last game, last inning, last out and last strike multiple times during these last two years. And they have remained standing. With the chips down one last time, I will go with the champs until they are dethroned.

The Giants impress me. The Cardinals make me believe.

Whoever wins will have survived. This will not be a blowout, nor will it be given away. St. Louis may lose, but I will go on record as saying they won't hand the Giants the pennant.

The knee-jerk reaction is to assume a tight pitching duel. I think that is actually likely. The key will be Lohse duplicating his Game 3 escape act because I anticipate the Giants having base runners. If he is able to give the Cardinals 6-plus innings, that means they will be in prime position to win.

Conversely, the first two innings will go a long way towards determining what kind of night the offense has against Matt Cain. Jump on him early and get a run or two and St. Louis will be in great shape. It's winner take all, and the real winner is anyone watching. It is going to be a classic.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Playoff Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/21/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/19/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% +*175 Detail
10/18/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% 0 Detail
10/17/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/16/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% 0 Detail
10/15/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/14/12 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2225 Detail
10/13/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1225 Detail
10/12/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1110 Detail
10/11/12 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*1220 Detail
10/10/12 5-*0-*1 100.00% +*2520 Detail
10/09/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*240 Detail
10/08/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1110 Detail
10/07/12 4-*4-*0 50.00% +*55 Detail
10/06/12 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail
10/05/12 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1610 Detail

Total: 35-20 63.63% +8576

Monday, October 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis - 8:00 PM ET San Francisco -133 500

San Francisco - Under 6.5 500