The Bum's NLCS & ALCS Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Cardinals (88-74) at Giants (94-68)

Game: 2
Venue: AT&T Park
Date: October 15, 2012 8:07 PM EDT

Poor starting pitching and spotless bullpen work was the story for both teams in the NL championship series opener.

With Chris Carpenter on the mound in Game 2 for the St. Louis Cardinals, the first part of that equation could change Monday night.

Carpenter brings a 10-2 career postseason record into this outing as the Cardinals look to take a 2-0 series lead and drop the San Francisco Giants to 0-4 at home in the playoffs.

St. Louis took Game 1 on Sunday 6-4. Each starter - Lance Lynn for the Cardinals and Madison Bumgarner for the Giants - lasted 3 2-3 innings and was charged with all the runs.

Six relievers for St. Louis yielded two hits over the final 5 1-3 innings while five for San Francisco did not give up a hit over the same span.

The Cardinals may not need such stellar work from their bullpen Monday with Carpenter (1-0, 0.00 ERA) starting. The veteran pitched 5 2-3 innings Wednesday in an 8-0 victory at Washington in Game 3 of a division series, lowering his ERA to 2.88 in 16 career postseason outings.

"He's a competitor, like I've never seen," manager Mike Matheny said. "The guy just finds a different gear when it becomes his turn to do something special."

Carpenter, who was limited to three 2012 starts while recovering from shoulder surgery, joined Virgil Trucks of the 1945 Tigers as the second starting pitcher to win a playoff game without winning in the regular season.

"I feel good physically," Carpenter said. "I think my stuff has gotten better and better. And I'm hoping that that's the case for this next one here."

The right-hander is 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA in eight career starts against the Giants, winning both previous outings at AT&T Park.

Carpenter has fared well against Hunter Pence, who is 5 for 27 versus him including the playoffs. Ryan Theriot is 7 for 15 against Carpenter, but he has yet to start this postseason.

If Carpenter pitches well, that will put pressure on Ryan Vogelsong (0-0, 1.80) to keep pace. The Giants starter is well aware of who he is up against Monday.

"He's got a good postseason track record," Vogelsong said. "He's got a good track record to begin with and he's been throwing the ball really good lately. He's obviously going to be tough."

Vogelsong made his postseason debut last Tuesday at Cincinnati in Game 3 of that series, allowing one run over five innings in a 2-1, 10-inning victory.

The right-hander won his lone 2012 start against the Cardinals on Aug. 8 with seven innings of three-hit ball in a 15-0 rout. He had gone 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA in his previous five starts against them.

Vogelsong is looking forward to pitching at home, where his ERA was 2.86 compared to his 3.87 road mark in the regular season.

"It's no secret, I've said in the past, that I definitely feed off the energy that this crowd brings,' he said. "I'm sure it's going to be pretty intense tomorrow night. It's pretty intense on a regular-season game here in the middle of June. So tomorrow night should be extra energetic.'

Being at home hasn't been an advantage this postseason for the Giants, who have allowed their opponents to score first in all three defeats and fell behind 6-0 on Sunday.

"We've shown how resilient we can be," manager Bruce Bochy said. "We hate to lose them at home, but it happens. And we've got to wash this one off and come out and be ready to go tomorrow."

The Giants are batting .165 at home in the playoffs, with Pence (1 for 12), Marco Scutaro (2 for 13), Angel Pagan (2 for 14) and Pablo Sandoval (2 for 12) all failing to produce an RBI.

Carlos Beltran and David Freese each had two-run homers for St. Louis. Beltran improved to 10 for 26 (.385) with three homers and six RBIs this postseason.

"Right now I'm really enjoying myself," Beltran said. "Right now I'm seeing the ball well. I feel like I have a good approach at the plate, I feel like I'm not trying to do too much, and good things are happening."

Cardinals second baseman Daniel Descalso, who lives in San Francisco's hip Marina neighborhood in the offseason, added two hits Sunday. Descalso was one of the stars of the Cardinals' 9-7 win over the Nationals in Game 5 on Friday with a tying two-run single with two outs in the ninth inning.

St. Louis is 8-3 in NL road playoff games over the last two years.

"The way we play the game, we have been in this type of situation before in the regular season,' Beltran said. "These guys have this mentality of not panicking."

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/14/12 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2225 Detail
10/13/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1225 Detail
10/12/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1110 Detail
10/11/12 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*1220 Detail
10/10/12 5-*0-*1 100.00% +*2520 Detail
10/09/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*240 Detail
10/08/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1110 Detail
10/07/12 4-*4-*0 50.00% +*55 Detail
10/06/12 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail
10/05/12 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1610 Detail

Total: 28-15 65.11% +7235

Monday, October 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis - 8:00 PM ET San Francisco -110 500

San Francisco - Over 6.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Tigers Send Verlander To Mound With 2-0 Lead Over Yankees

New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
MLB Betting Preview
Date: 10/16/2012, 8:00 p.m. (ET) TBS
Opening Lines: Tigers -180, O/U 7


Series So Far: The Tigers jumped on the New York Yankees in Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS to take a 2-0 lead back home to Detroit. Saturday's series opener saw the Tigers blow a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the ninth when Jose Valverde served up a pair of 2-run homers, but Detroit eventually pulled off a 6-4 win in 12 innings. That 4-run outburst proved to be New York's lone offense in the series so far after Anibal Sanchez and Phil Coke combined on a 4-hit shutout Sunday for a 3-0 victory. Motown backers cashed underdog tickets at the baseball betting window each contest, getting +120 in Game 1 and +125 in Game 2, while the 'over/under' split the two tilts.

Much has been made about the season-ending injury to Derek Jeter in Saturday's matchup along with the blown call by 2B umpire Jeff Nelson on Sunday. The real reason why New York was forced to go the 5-game distance in the ALDS vs. Baltimore and finds itself down 2-0 in the ALCS has been the lack of scoring. The Yankees have plated 20 runs in seven postseason games, and nine of those came in two ninth-inning outbursts (ALDS Game 1 vs. the Orioles, ALCS Game 1 vs. the Tigers). New York ranked second in the majors during the regular season with 4.96 run per game.

Pitching Matchup: Detroit will have ace Justin Verlander on the hill at Comerica Park for Game 3 while the Yankees turn to Phil Hughes in hopes of climbing back into this series. Verlander was the difference in the ALDS vs. the Oakland Athletics, winning Games 1 and 5 to push the Tigers into the ALCS. Last year's AL MVP and Cy Young winner worked 16 innings with 11 strikeouts combined, giving up a solo homer to Coco Crisp leading off the opener before shutting the A's out from that point on. Verlander faced New York three times during the regular season with the Tigers winning one of those games. His ledger in the three assignments included 20-1/3 innings total and seven earned runs allowed (3.09 ERA) to go with 22 strikeouts.

Hughes pitched well in his ALDS appearance vs. Baltimore, pitching into the seventh of Game 4 and allowing just one run on a Nate McLouth homer. He closed the regular season with a 5.19 ERA in six September starts, but the Yanks provided enough offense to win four of those outings. He split his two regular season assignments vs. the Tigers, both starts coming at Comerica Park while Hughes posted a 3.38 ERA in 13+ innings and limited Detroit hitters to a .235 average.

Odds & Ends: New York won four of the seven regular season games played between the clubs in Detroit, with the 'over' also going 4-3. Sam Holbrook is slated to call the balls and strikes in Game 2. He was 19-12 'over' along with three 'pushes' on totals in the regular season. A cool, humid evening is in the current forecast for Detroit on Tuesday; temps are expected to hover in the mid-to-uppers 50s for most of the game with a 12-15 mph wind from the south (in from right-center towards the 3B on-deck circle).

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Yankees (95-67) at Tigers (88-74)

Game: 3
Venue: Yankee Stadium
Date: October 16, 2012 8:07 PM EDT

DETROIT (AP) - There were times this year when Justin Verlander took the mound while his team was reeling a bit - and the right-hander's presence was Detroit's best shot at snapping out of a momentary funk.

Now, the hard-throwing ace is in a different situation. Led by Verlander, the Tigers' rotation has been absolutely terrific this postseason, and his job is simply to keep this remarkable run going against the slumping New York Yankees.

``I think pitching, much like hitting, is contagious,' Verlander said. ``Guys go out there night in and night out and see guys have a good game, and the next day he wants to have a good game, so on and so forth. And I think that's what we are feeding on right now.'

The Tigers won the first two games of the AL championship series in New York, holding the Yankees scoreless except for one brief uprising against closer-in-limbo Jose Valverde. With the exception of Valverde, no Detroit pitcher has allowed an earned run since Game 3 of the division series against Oakland.

Verlander takes the mound Tuesday night in Game 3 of the ALCS. The reigning AL MVP won both his starts against the A's, throwing a shutout in the decisive fifth game.

``As a rotation, right now things are going well,' Verlander said during Monday's off-day. ``It is nice to see us get rolling as a group, and hopefully we can continue it through the World Series.'

Detroit's starters have posted an 0.94 ERA in the playoffs this year. The postseason record for a starting staff pitching at least seven games is 1.05, set by the 1920 Cleveland Indians, according to STATS LLC.

Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister and Anibal Sanchez are off to that type of start this year.

Detroit's pitching display has gone hand in hand with New York's horrendous slump. Derek Jeter is out for the year after breaking an ankle in Game 1 of this series, and the Yankees desperately need their other stars to start hitting. Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher are a combined 12 for 107 - for a .112 batting average - in the playoffs.

Add catcher Russell Martin, and five regulars are below .200, hitting a combined 17 for 133 with 42 strikeouts - 25 more strikeouts than hits. They have a combined seven RBIs, four of those by Cano.

``We can't score seven runs, eight runs in one at-bat,' first baseman Mark Teixeira said. ``It's momentum. When things are going bad, they can be really bad, but when things are going good, we're capable of putting up a whole bunch of runs.'

The Yankees have actually had a decent amount of success against Verlander. He faced New York three times this season, and the Yankees won twice. Phil Hughes, who will start Game 3 for New York, pitched a complete game against Verlander in a win over the Tigers on June 3.

``Obviously Verlander is a great pitcher, but he is human and we know we can score off him,' Hughes said. ``I just have to do a better job than he does. It's going to be a challenge, but, like I said, I'm looking forward to it.'

In his most recent start against the Yankees, on Aug. 6, Verlander struck out 14 in eight innings.

``You want to face familiar pitchers, even if he happens to be the best pitcher on the planet,' Teixeira said.

With the starters pitching brilliantly, Detroit's big concern right now is the bullpen. Valverde allowed the Yankees to tie Game 1 with four runs in the ninth, and although the Tigers won 6-4 in the 12th, Detroit manager Jim Leyland needed to change plans a bit. He used Phil Coke to close out a 3-0 win in Game 2, and the left-hander pitched the final two innings.

Coke may be a viable option against a New York lineup with plenty of left-handed power, but it's clear the situation is still in flux.

``I am just going to play it out and see what happens, see what kind of matchup there is,' Leyland said. ``Find out who they have coming up, who the matchup will be, probably go from there. I am hoping that Valverde in the very near future is ready to take back over. As I said, that is pretty important that we have him.'

Of course, if Detroit's rotation keeps up its record pace, the pressure on the bullpen could be minimal. Can the Yankees possibly hit this poorly for another few days? Leyland is skeptical.

``We're just hoping we can keep the Yankees from swinging the bats too good,' Leyland said. ``You are certainly concerned about it because they are just too good. They are too good of hitters and you know they will break out at some point. You just try to shut them down to the best of your ability and scratch out a few runs. The runs are pretty much at a premium so far.'

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

NY Yankees at Detroit
The Tigers look to take advantage of a New York team that is 3-13 in Phil Hughes' last 16 road starts against teams with a winning record. Detroit is the pick (-180) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 16

Game 909-910: NY Yankees at Detroit (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.002; Detroit (Verlander) 17.053
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180); Over




MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 16

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NY YANKEES (98 - 71) at DETROIT (93 - 76) - 8:05 PM
PHIL HUGHES (R) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 2-10 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Tuesday this season.
NY YANKEES are 28-32 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
NY YANKEES are 18-30 (-15.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HUGHES is 1-11 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 58-34 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 54-34 (+17.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
VERLANDER is 39-11 (+19.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 70-32 (+23.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 27-6 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 19-4 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 15-0 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 184-116 (+21.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 49-44 (-10.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
DETROIT is 93-76 (-8.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 89-73 (-8.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 54-50 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-6 (-0.5 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

PHIL HUGHES vs. DETROIT since 1997
HUGHES is 4-4 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.130.
His team's record is 4-4 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-3. (+0.8 units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
VERLANDER is 6-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.94 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 8-8 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-10. (-6.4 units)

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MLB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, October 16

American League

AL Championship Series, Game Three (Detroit Leads, 2-0)
NY Yankees at Detroit, 8:05 ET TBS
Hughes: Yankees 18-8 Under off BB losses
Verlander: 24-4 TSR as a favorite of -175 to -250




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 16

Verlander is 6-0, 0.82 in his last six starts, allowing four runs in 44 IP, but he is 1-1, 5.31 in three starts vs Bronx this year. Bombers figure to play better on road, away from front-running Big Apple nitwits, but they've scored in only one of 21 series innings. Hughes is 0-1, 5.00 in his last three starts but pitched well in last start, vs Orioles; he is 1-1, 3.38 vs Detroit this year. Visiting teams are 16-10 in playoffs so far this month. Aside from Valverde, Tiger pitchers have tossed 40.1 consecutive scoreless innings. Detroit won its last six home games.




MLB

Tuesday, October 16

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Trend Report
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8:07 PM
NY YANKEES vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Detroit
NY Yankees are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing at home against NY Yankees


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MLB

Tuesday, October 16

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ALCS betting preview: Yankees at Tigers
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New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers (-178, 7)

Detroit lead series 2-0.

The Detroit Tigers are in perfect position to put a stranglehold on the New York Yankees in the American League Championship Series as they send ace Justin Verlander to the mound Tuesday in Game 3 while owning a 2-0 series lead. Detroit posted a 6-4 victory in 12 innings in the series opener as Delmon Young collected three RBIs, including the game-winner. Young also notched the game-winning RBI in Game 2, but the story for the Tigers was Anibal Sanchez, who yielded just three hits and struck out seven over seven scoreless innings.

Save for two innings, the Yankees' offense has struggled mightily this postseason. The club scored five runs in the ninth inning of Game 1 of the AL Division Series against Baltimore and four in the ninth of Saturday's series opener versus Detroit. In its other 70 playoff innings, New York has totaled 11 runs. Robinson Cano, who ended the regular season on a 24-for-39 tear, is hitting .063 in the playoffs and is mired in an 0-for-26 drought, the longest in one postseason in major-league history. Curtis Granderson (.115) has struck out 14 times in 26 at-bats and Alex Rodriguez (.130) 12 times in 23 at-bats.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s under mostly cloudy skies. Winds will blow in from right field at 10 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees RH Phil Hughes (0-0, 1.35 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Justin Verlander (2-0, 0.56)

Hughes came up with a strong performance in Game 4 of the ALDS but settled for a no-decision after allowing one run and four hits with three walks and eight strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings. The 26-year-old was 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts at Comerica Park during the regular season, tossing a four-hitter on June 3 before yielding four runs in 4 1/3 innings of a loss on Aug. 7. Hughes faced Detroit twice in relief during last year's ALDS, allowing two hits and striking out four over 2 1/3 scoreless frames.

After allowing just one run and three hits over seven innings in a Game 1 victory over Oakland in the ALDS, Verlander tossed a four-hit shutout in the decisive fifth game of the series. He issued five walks over 16 innings and struck out 11 in each contest. The 29-year-old went 0-1 with a 5.11 ERA in his first two starts of the year against New York before yielding two unearned runs and striking out a career high-tying 14 in eight innings of a home victory on Aug. 6. Verlander, who pitched one inning in last year's ALDS opener before the rains came and ended his night, yielded four runs and fanned 11 over eight frames in a Game 3 victory.

TRENDS:

* Yankees are 0-7 in their last seven playoff games as an underdog.
* Tigers are 5-0 in their last five playoff games as a favorite.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Yankees’ last five playoff games as an underdog.
* Over is 4-1 in Tigers’ last five League Championship games.

UMP TRENDS- Sam Holbrook

* Over is 3-0-1 in Holbrook’s last four games behind home plate.
* Tigers are 6-0 in their last six games with Holbrook behind home plate.
* Yankees are 2-9 in their last 11 games with Holbrook behind home plate.
* Home team is 9-2 in Holbrook’s last 11 Tuesday games behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Hughes' complete-game victory over Detroit on June 3 came against Verlander.

2. Verlander led the major leagues with 239 strikeouts during the regular season, while teammate and Game Four starter Max Scherzer was second with 231.

3. New York is 4-4 in a playoff series in which it lost the first two games, while Detroit has completed sweeps both times it took a 2-0 series lead. Since the LCS expanded to seven games in 1985, 20 of the 23 clubs that won the first two games went on to capture the series.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/15/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/14/12 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2225 Detail
10/13/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1225 Detail
10/12/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1110 Detail
10/11/12 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*1220 Detail
10/10/12 5-*0-*1 100.00% +*2520 Detail
10/09/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*240 Detail
10/08/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1110 Detail
10/07/12 4-*4-*0 50.00% +*55 Detail
10/06/12 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail
10/05/12 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1610 Detail

Total: 30-15-0 66.66% +8265


Tuesday, October 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Yankees - 8:00 PM ET NY Yankees +169 500

Detroit - Under 7 500


Good Luck All !!

[StarDust Bum]

The Yankees had the hottest bat at the plate and couldn't get that tieing run in.......

[StarDust Bum]

NLCS betting preview: Giants at Cardinals

San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals (-122, 7)

Series tied 1-1.

The San Francisco Giants evened the National League Championship Series against the St. Louis Cardinals at one game apiece Monday, with the tone of the series changing dramatically after Matt Holliday’s hard slide into second baseman Marco Scutaro in the first inning. Scutaro stayed in the game and hit a bases-clearing single in the fourth inning before leaving in the fifth for X-rays on his left hip, which were negative. The aggressive slide appeared to ignite the Giants, who went on to snap a three-game postseason home losing streak with the 7-1 victory. If Scutaro is forced to miss any time, former Cardinals infielder Ryan Theriot would start at second base. Theriot is 12-for-22 lifetime against Kyle Lohse, St. Louis’ Game 3 starter.

The Cardinals are looking for more consistency as they head back to St. Louis. They’ve had only 11 hits in three playoff losses while scoring 41 runs in their five wins. Right fielder Carlos Beltran hit two doubles in three at-bats Monday for his 13th career multihit postseason game, and he is 12-for-29 (.414) this postseason. Holliday appeared rattled after his slide in the first inning, going hitless in his next three at-bats and committing a critical error in the fourth. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been outstanding during the playoffs, but has worked 34 innings in eight games. Ryan Vogelsong gave the Giants’ bullpen some much-needed rest when he tossed seven strong innings in Game 2.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, Fox

WEATHER: Thunderstorms are in the forecast with a 78 percent chance of rain. Winds are expected to blow SW at 13 mph and temperatures will fall into the low 60s.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants RH Matt Cain (1-1, 5.06 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Kyle Lohse (1-0, 2.13)

Cain is seeking his first quality outing of the postseason after failing to escape the sixth inning in his previous two starts. He is 2-3 with a 4.94 ERA in eight career starts against the Cardinals, including 1-1 with a 6.94 ERA in two outings this season. Holliday is 8-for-40 with 10 strikeouts against Cain, who will be pitching on five days’ rest. When starting on five days' rest this season, Cain lost only once in 12 outings while posting a 2.42 ERA.

Lohse has allowed two runs on eight hits over 12 2/3 innings in two starts this postseason, including Game 4 of the NL Division Series against Washington when he yielded one run over seven frames. Lohse led the Cardinals in starts and innings during the regular season, and he was 8-1 in 16 home starts with a 2.33 ERA. He’s 3-2 with a 3.78 ERA in five career starts against the Giants, who are set to face him for the first time this season.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Giants are 10-1 in Cain's last 11 starts as road underdogs.
* Cardinals are 7-0 in their last seven games following a loss.

UMP TRENDS - Bill Miller:

* Over is 7-3 in Millers last 10 games behind home plate.
* Giants are 5-1 in their last six games with Miller behind home plate.
* Home team is 10-3 in Millers last 13 games behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. In the last five postseason games, the Giants' bullpen has allowed two earned runs on 13 hits, with 19 strikeouts in 22 innings, for a 0.82 ERA.

2. National League teams are 3-10 at home during this postseason.

3. Giants RHP Tim Lincecum is expected to make his first start of the postseason in Game 4 after allowing one run on three hits with nine strikeouts in three relief appearances.

[StarDust Bum]

Books cheer against Giants, Tigers as World Series draws closer

Earlier this summer, we polled sportsbooks in Las Vegas and online about which baseball teams had the potential to do the most damage if they won the World Series.

Of the six teams featured, the St. Louis Cardinals are the only ones remaining in the postseason mix, tied 1-1 with the San Francisco Giants in the National League Championship Series.

As all MLB bettors know, it was the Cardinals who cashed in big for backers last October, handing books a big loss with World Series odds as high as 500-1 en route to an improbable championship.

Oddsmakers played it careful with St. Louis this summer, keeping its World Series futures between 12-1 and 20-1 for most of the season. However, the Cardinals were as high as 35-1 after posting a 13-16 record in May.

“They’re a quality team and have kind of underachieved as well,” Jay Kornegay, executive director of the LVH Superbook, told Covers back in July. “They have a loyal following no matter where you go and have a history of support in the futures book.”

But it’s St. Louis’ NLCS opponent that has some Nevada books sweating out the cold October nights. The Giants were as big as 50-1 to win the World Series this season and brought in a lot of futures bets when they got hot at the end of the summer, going 37-19 through August and September.

“With the Giants, we’re a small loser,” Jimmy Vaccaro, veteran oddsmaker for William Hill in Las Vegas, told Covers. “We got most of the bad ones out of the way. The Giants would be a small nick.”

It’s a different story online, where UK-based sportsbook bet365.com took very little action on San Francisco’s futures.

“No one has really touched them,” Aron Black, of bet365.com, told Covers. “We taken a few plays at bigger prices, but they are the best runner we have by a wide margin.”

According to Black, he’s cheering just a touch louder for the New York Yankees to comeback from a 0-2 hole against the Detroit Tigers in the ALCS. Detroit winning the World Series would be their worst result, offering odds on the Tigers as high as 18-1.

The Yankees would be the second worst outcome due to their public following that has taken New York’s World Series odds all season. St. Louis would be the third least-profitable finish, even though they offered the Cardinals as high as +2,500 to win the World Series.

“Of all the teams, no one is a real bad result,” says Black. “Detroit and New York are both losing positions, but not for any great deal. It’s been a great season for trading the MLB outright book. We have had money on numerous runners who did not make the playoffs or went out early.”

bet365.com currently has Detroit priced as a +110 favorite to win the World Series, followed by St. Louis (+225), San Francisco (+350), and New York (+1,100).

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, October 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Francisco - 4:00 PM ET San Francisco +115 500

St. Louis - Over 7 500

[StarDust Bum]

Tigers go for ALCS sweep over Yankees

NEW YORK YANKEES

at DETROIT TIGERS


American League Championship Series Game 4 – Detroit leads series 3-0
First pitch: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -110, Detroit +100, Total: 7

Looking to avoid an embarrassing ALCS sweep, the Yankees will send ace CC Sabathia to the mound against Max Scherzer in Detroit on Wednesday night.

No matter how well Sabathia pitches, he cannot win a game by himself. The Yankees have scored just one run in their past two games and are averaging a pitiful 2.0 runs per game in their past seven contests. Sabathia has been in dominant form in leading his team to five straight wins, throwing at least eight innings in all five starts. This includes two ALDS outings where he went 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Scherzer, however, has also been quite good. Since the beginning of August, he is 6-1 and his Tigers team is 9-3 in those dozen Scherzer starts. He allowed just one unearned run in his lone postseason start so far, and owns a 1.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his past three starts. Although Sabathia is a postseason veteran with a 7-1 record and 3.09 ERA in 13 outings since joining the Yankees, he struggled against the Tigers last year. When Detroit beat New York last year in the playoffs, Sabathia pitched three times (two starts), compiling 8.2 innings of duty, with eight walks (2.08 WHIP) and six runs (6.23 ERA). He won all three starts against the Tigers this year, but had an average run support of 8.7, a figure he cannot expect with the struggling lineup behind him. As home underdogs, take DETROIT to complete the sweep.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also side with the Tigers:

Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (DETROIT) - with a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a rested bullpen - threw <= 2 innings in each of the last 2 games. (89-60 since 1997.) (59.7%, +45.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), starting a well-rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. (115-64 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.2%, +54.6 units. Rating = 3*).

The New York lineup has been just abysmal with a .200 average in the playoffs and .158 in the ALCS. So, the pressure is on the pitching. Having pitched in the AL Central, Sabathia has plenty of experience pitching against the Tigers. In 37 career starts he is 18-12 (team 22-15) with a 4.48 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. In his three wins this year against them, he had a 3.32 ERA. Overall on the season, Sabathia has a 3.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, though those numbers jump to 3.87 and 1.30, respectively, on the road. Even if Sabathia cannot go the distance in this one, he is supported by a bullpen that has been awesome in the playoffs. New York relievers have a 1.96 ERA and 1.04 WHIP so far in the postseason.

The Detroit lineup has not been spectacular, but it has been good enough in the postseason. In their past four games, all wins, the Tigers are averaging 4.3 runs per game. Delmon Young has been a key part of it and loves mashing in the playoffs with seven career postseason HR, a team record. He hit a long ball Tuesday, his second of the series and fifth in eight career playoff games versus the Yankees. Scherzer (3.64 ERA, 1.26 WHIP in 2012) also loves pitching against New York. Although he did not make it out of the fifth inning in his last start (4.2 IP, 3 ER), that is the only career loss he has against them. He owns a 4-1 record in five career starts with a 2.73 ERA. He threw six shutout innings against the Yankees in winning Game 2 of the 2011 ALCS. Look for this strikeout machine (239 K's in 193 IP) to take the Tigers to the World Series.

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Yankees (95-67) at Tigers (88-74)

Game: 4
Venue: Yankee Stadium
Date: October 17, 2012 8:07 PM EDT

This time, ending the New York Yankees' season means the Detroit Tigers will return to the World Series for the first time in six years.

CC Sabathia will try to prevent a celebration, but the Yankees' bats may be more important to keeping the champagne corked.

Max Scherzer looks to help the Tigers complete the first postseason sweep of the Yankees in 32 years Wednesday night at Comerica Park.

Detroit eliminated the Yankees in five games of last year's division series, but the postseason run fell short of the World Series.

The Tigers have a chance to keep that from happening this year after putting themselves on the brink of a sweep in this ALCS by winning 2-1 in Game 3. Justin Verlander limited the Yankees to three hits in 8 1-3 innings, making his only mistake on Eduardo Nunez's homer in the ninth.

That performance came after Anibal Sanchez and Phil Coke combined to fan 10 Yankees and hold them to four hits in Monday's 3-0 victory.

"We put ourselves in a decent position, but that's all we have done," manager Jim Leyland said.

It's been 36 postseason series since New York has been swept, dating to the 1980 ALCS against Kansas City.

The offense isn't providing much hope of avoiding a similar fate this time. The Yankees are hitting .200 in the playoffs and .158 in the ALCS, on track to be a record low for New York in a postseason series, eclipsing a .171 average against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 1963 World Series.

"There were some good at_bats (Tuesday). The ball was not carrying tremendously well, we know that," manager Joe Girardi said. "But I think (Verlander) ended up with three strikeouts. So our guys put the ball in play and tried to get on base, but, you know, when you face Verlander, you know what you're up against.

"The thing that you do is you keep encouraging the guys and you keep telling them, 'Hey, find a way, find a way to get it done.'"

New York's offensive shortcomings likely means Sabathia (2-0, 1.53 ERA) needs to toss another gem to keep the Yankees' season alive.

The left-hander is one out shy of tossing complete games in both of his postseason starts.

"I always want to go out and try to shut the other team down and give us as many opportunities to score," Sabathia said. "As cold as we are, we can get just as hot, especially with our lineup and the veterans we have and great players we have."

Success in the playoffs certainly isn't new for Sabathia. He's 7-1 with a 3.09 ERA in 13 games - 12 starts - since moving to New York in 2009. However, he wasn't very effective in three meetings - two starts - against the Tigers in last year's division series, surrendering six runs and eight walks in 8 2-3 innings.

The 2009 ALCS MVP was much better against them this year, winning all three starts behind a 3.32 ERA. However, he was helped by an offense that averaged 8.7 runs.

One of those victories came opposite Scherzer in a 6-2 win in the Bronx. Sabathia allowed two runs with eight strikeouts in eight innings, while Scherzer had a career-high seven walks and allowed three runs in 4 2-3.

The Tigers' right-hander was 4-0 with a 2.39 ERA in his previous five games - four starts - against New York, including two in the 2011 division series.

Despite the Yankees' offensive struggles, Scherzer isn't taking the AL East champions lightly.

"You know, anytime you catch a team that's hot or a team that's struggling, to me, it doesn't really matter," Scherzer said. "They're going to come at you with a game plan to try to knock you out of the game. That's simply as it is. And they are going to come ready to attack me, so I have to be ready to attack them."

Scherzer's only appearance in this postseason was wasted in last Wednesday's 4-3 loss at Oakland in Game 4 of the division series. He allowed one unearned run with eight strikeouts in 5 1-3 innings before closer Jose Valverde surrendered three runs in the ninth.

Delmon Young is looking to continue his postseason success after hitting a solo homer Tuesday. He's 4 for 13 with two home runs and five RBIs in this series.

Young's seven career playoff homers is a Tigers record, and he's hit five of them - one off Sabathia - in eight games against New York while batting .313 with eight RBIs.

"He had a great postseason last year and he picked up right where he left off," Leyland said.

Miguel Cabrera's success isn't quite as surprising. The Triple Crown winner is 4 for 11 in this series and is batting .361 with six homers and 15 RBIs during his record 16-game hitting streak in LCS play.

It will be interesting to see if Girardi benches struggling third baseman Alex Rodriguez for the second straight game.

Rodriguez was left on the bench Tuesday after going 5 for 41 in 11 playoff games over the last two postseasons, including 3 for 23 with 12 strikeouts in six contests this year.

Rodriguez is 1 for 12 in his career versus Scherzer.

Only the 2004 Boston Red Sox - against the Yankees - have overcome a 3-0 deficit in a postseason series.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

San Francisco at St. Louis
The Giants look to build on their 10-1 record in Matt Cain's last 11 starts as a road underdog. San Francisco is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 17

Game 911-912: San Francisco at St. Louis (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 16.685; St. Louis (Lohse) 16.275
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+105); Over

Game 913-914: NY Yankees at Detroit (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.007; Detroit (Scherzer) 17.047
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-110); Under




MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 17

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SAN FRANCISCO (98 - 71) at ST LOUIS (93 - 77) - 4:05 PM
MATT CAIN (R) vs. KYLE LOHSE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 21-11 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 53-39 (+14.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 98-71 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 49-35 (+17.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 98-71 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 483-473 (+49.0 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-2 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games in playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 37-30 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 93-77 (-2.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 10-17 (-9.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
ST LOUIS is 93-77 (-2.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 60-58 (-12.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 30-38 (-15.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-4 (+0.7 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.7 Units)

MATT CAIN vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
CAIN is 2-3 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.94 and a WHIP of 1.415.
His team's record is 3-5 (-2.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.3 units)

KYLE LOHSE vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LOHSE is 3-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.290.
His team's record is 3-2 (+0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.2 units)

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NY YANKEES (98 - 71) at DETROIT (93 - 76) - 8:05 PM
C.C. SABATHIA (L) vs. MAX SCHERZER (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-6 (-0.5 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. DETROIT since 1997
SABATHIA is 18-12 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.48 and a WHIP of 1.299.
His team's record is 22-15 (+0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 21-16. (+3.6 units)

MAX SCHERZER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SCHERZER is 4-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 2.73 and a WHIP of 1.382.
His team's record is 4-1 (+4.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-4. (-3.3 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 17

Lohse is 3-0, 2.84 in his last five starts; he didn't pitch against the Giants this year. Cardinals won seven of his last ten home starts, are 6-3 in last nine home games overall. Giants won four of last five road games; visitors are 6-1 in their playoff games this fall. Cain inferred that he might throw at Holliday after his slide into second base hurt Scutaro's leg in Game 2. Cain is 1-1, 4.60 in his last three starts; he didn't finish 6th inning in any of them; he is 1-1, 6.94 in two starts vs St Louis this season.

Scherzer is 5-1, 1.52 in his last 10 outings, but has been hampered by injuries; would expect quick hook on him once he gets past 5th inning; he allowed three runs in 4.2 IP in his only start vs Bronx this year. Sabathia is 4-0, 1.52 in his last five starts; he is 3-0, 4.15 in three starts vs Detroit this season. Bombers scored in only two of 30 series innings. Visiting teams are 16-11 in playoffs so far this month. Aside from Valverde, Tiger pitchers have allowed one run in their last 48.2 innings. Detroit won its last seven home games.




MLB

Wednesday, October 17

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Trend Report
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4:07 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
St. Louis is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games

8:07 PM
NY YANKEES vs. DETROIT
NY Yankees are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games
Detroit is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


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MLB

Wednesday, October 17

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NLCS betting preview: Giants at Cardinals
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San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals (-122, 7)

Series tied 1-1.

The San Francisco Giants evened the National League Championship Series against the St. Louis Cardinals at one game apiece Monday, with the tone of the series changing dramatically after Matt Holliday’s hard slide into second baseman Marco Scutaro in the first inning. Scutaro stayed in the game and hit a bases-clearing single in the fourth inning before leaving in the fifth for X-rays on his left hip, which were negative. The aggressive slide appeared to ignite the Giants, who went on to snap a three-game postseason home losing streak with the 7-1 victory. If Scutaro is forced to miss any time, former Cardinals infielder Ryan Theriot would start at second base. Theriot is 12-for-22 lifetime against Kyle Lohse, St. Louis’ Game 3 starter.

The Cardinals are looking for more consistency as they head back to St. Louis. They’ve had only 11 hits in three playoff losses while scoring 41 runs in their five wins. Right fielder Carlos Beltran hit two doubles in three at-bats Monday for his 13th career multihit postseason game, and he is 12-for-29 (.414) this postseason. Holliday appeared rattled after his slide in the first inning, going hitless in his next three at-bats and committing a critical error in the fourth. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been outstanding during the playoffs, but has worked 34 innings in eight games. Ryan Vogelsong gave the Giants’ bullpen some much-needed rest when he tossed seven strong innings in Game 2.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, Fox

WEATHER: Thunderstorms are in the forecast with a 78 percent chance of rain. Winds are expected to blow SW at 13 mph and temperatures will fall into the low 60s.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants RH Matt Cain (1-1, 5.06 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Kyle Lohse (1-0, 2.13)

Cain is seeking his first quality outing of the postseason after failing to escape the sixth inning in his previous two starts. He is 2-3 with a 4.94 ERA in eight career starts against the Cardinals, including 1-1 with a 6.94 ERA in two outings this season. Holliday is 8-for-40 with 10 strikeouts against Cain, who will be pitching on five days’ rest. When starting on five days' rest this season, Cain lost only once in 12 outings while posting a 2.42 ERA.

Lohse has allowed two runs on eight hits over 12 2/3 innings in two starts this postseason, including Game 4 of the NL Division Series against Washington when he yielded one run over seven frames. Lohse led the Cardinals in starts and innings during the regular season, and he was 8-1 in 16 home starts with a 2.33 ERA. He’s 3-2 with a 3.78 ERA in five career starts against the Giants, who are set to face him for the first time this season.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Giants are 10-1 in Cain's last 11 starts as road underdogs.
* Cardinals are 7-0 in their last seven games following a loss.

UMP TRENDS - Bill Miller:

* Over is 7-3 in Millers last 10 games behind home plate.
* Giants are 5-1 in their last six games with Miller behind home plate.
* Home team is 10-3 in Millers last 13 games behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. In the last five postseason games, the Giants' bullpen has allowed two earned runs on 13 hits, with 19 strikeouts in 22 innings, for a 0.82 ERA.

2. National League teams are 3-10 at home during this postseason.

3. Giants RHP Tim Lincecum is expected to make his first start of the postseason in Game 4 after allowing one run on three hits with nine strikeouts in three relief appearances.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Wednesday, October 17

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ALCS betting preview: Yankees at Tigers
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New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers (-105, 7)

Detroit leads series 3-0

The New York Yankees turn to their ace as they attempt to stave off elimination and extend the American League Championship Series when they take on the Detroit Tigers in Game 4 at Comerica Park on Wednesday.

New York dropped a 2-1 decision Tuesday as ace Justin Verlander tossed 8 1/3 superb innings to give Detroit a 3-0 series lead. Delmon Young belted a solo home run and Miguel Cabrera extended his LCS hitting streak to a major league-record 16 games with an RBI double for the Tigers, who are one victory away from their 11th World Series appearance.

Young's blast was his franchise-record seventh postseason homer and fifth in eight games against New York, which calls upon CC Sabathia to help avoid a sweep. The Yankees have been let down by their offense during the playoffs. Robinson Cano is hitting .083 (3-for-36) as he ended an 0-for-29 drought - the longest in one postseason in major league history - in the ninth inning Tuesday and Curtis Granderson has gone 3-for-29 (.103) with 15 strikeouts. Alex Rodriguez, who has been benched in two of the last five playoff games and been removed for a pinch hitter in the other three, is batting .130 (3-for-23) with 12 strikeouts while Nick Swisher is 4-for-26 (.154).

The Tigers, who have not won a world championship since 1984, are seeking their first World Series berth since 2006, when they lost in five games to the St. Louis Cardinals.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for a 72 percent chance of rain later in the evening while temperatures will fall into the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow south at 11 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees LH CC Sabathia (2-0, 1.53 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Max Scherzer (0-0, 0.00)

Sabathia registered two of New York's three victories over Baltimore in the AL Division Series, including a four-hitter in the decisive Game 5 on Friday. The 32-year-old, who is 3-2 with a 5.20 ERA in six career ALCS starts, went 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA against the Tigers this season and 2-0 at Comerica Park. But Sabathia struggled versus Detroit in last year's ALDS, allowing six runs over 8 2/3 innings in two starts and a relief appearance.

Scherzer pitched well in Game 4 of the ALDS against Oakland, allowing an unearned run and three hits over 5 1/3 innings while walking one and striking out eight. The 28-year-old, who finished second to Verlander for the major-league lead in strikeouts with 231, took the loss in his only start of the season against New York on April 29 after yielding three runs on seven hits and seven walks in 4 2/3 innings. Scherzer tossed six scoreless innings in a victory over the Yankees in Game 2 of last year's ALDS.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 4-1 in Scherzers last five starts vs. Yankees.
* Under is 4-1 in Scherzers last five starts vs. Yankees.
* Yankees are 4-1 in Sabathias last five starts vs. Tigers.
* Over is 4-1 in Sabathias last five starts vs. Tigers.
* Yankees are 2-5 in the last seven meetings.

UMP TRENDS - Jeff Nelson:

* Over is 3-1-1 in Nelsons last five games behind home plate.
* Yankees are 4-1 in their last five games with Nelson behind home plate.
* Tigers are 2-5 in their last seven games with Nelson behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. New York has scored all five of its runs in this series and 11 of its 21 in the postseason in the ninth inning.

2. Detroit's starting pitchers had tossed 37 2/3 straight innings in the series without allowing an earned run before Eduardo Nunez's homer off Verlander in the ninth Tuesday. It is the longest streak since the 44-inning run by the starters for the 1905 New York Giants.

3. Verlander came within three outs of becoming the first pitcher to throw consecutive playoff shutouts since Orel Hershiser accomplished the feat in 1988 with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, October 17

National League

NL Championship Series, Game Three (Series Tied, 1-1)
San Francisco at St. Louis, 4:05 ET FOX
Cain: San Francisco 9-2 SU in road games in playoff games
Lohse: St Louis 10-17 SU when the total is 7 or less

American League

AL Championship Series, Game Four (Detroit Leads, 3-0)
NY Yankees at Detroit, 8:05 ET TBS
Sabathia: NY Yankees 9-17 SU on road after game with a combined score of 4 or less
Scherzer: Detroit 26-8 SU in home games after allowing 2 runs or less