The Bum's NLCS & ALCS Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Tigers, Yankees Battle For American League Flag

Veteran Andy Pettitte will open the 2012 ALCS for the New York Yankees.

It wasn’t an easy road for either the Tigers or the Yankees to reach the ALCS, both pushed to five games in the division round.

But here they are again, meeting in the playoffs for the third time since 2006. And for the Yankees, they’re hoping the third time is a charm after losing in the ALDS in both 2006 and a year ago against Jim Leyland’s Tigers.

For Joe Girardi’s squad, there also isn’t much time to rest after finishing up with the Orioles on Friday. Game One will come Saturday night at Yankee Stadium, with veteran lefty Andy Pettitte getting the start against Detroit’s Doug Fister.

First pitch on Saturday night will be at 8:05 p.m. (ET), with TBS providing the TV coverage.

Right off the bat, there are a couple of interesting developments as this series opend. First, neither of the respective aces on each staff, CC Sabathia (Yankees) or Justin Verlander (Tigers), will be pitching this weekend in the Bronx as each were involved in decisive games in the ALDS. It looks like they will probably face off in Game 3 on Tuesday in Detroit, and, if the series runs the distance, likely in Game 7 (which would be at Yankee Stadium) as well.

We’ll also see which of these teams can perform best about their respective aces, who combined for four of the six wins these sides recorded in their ALDS.

Also, there’s a good chance that Girardi might keep the slumping Alex Rodriguez out of the starting lineup as he did in the decisive Game 5 vs. the Orioles. A-Rod, just 2-for-16 thus far in the postseason, was pulled for pinch-hitter Raul Ibañez (who proceeded to hit a game-tying homer in the ninth, then the game-winning homer in his next at bat) in Game 3 vs. Baltimore, then was pulled again in Game 4 before the benching in Game 5.

Expect Girardi to keep A-Rod on the bench at the outset vs. Detroit as well, considering how he went 2-for-18 in last year's ALDS vs. the Tigers, including going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in a 3-2 home loss in the decisive Game 5. And with Detroit likely to be starting all right-handers in this series, don’t be surprised if Rodriguez is on the bench quite a bit.

A-Rod is hardly the only struggling Yankee hitter at the moment, however. Thus far in the postseason, Robinson Cano is 2-for-22; Nick Swisher is 2-for-18; and former Tigers OF Curtis Granderson is only 3-for-19, but did homer in a two-hit performance on Friday vs. the Orioles.

If the Yankees can’t hit, there will be extra pressure on the veteran southpaw Pettitte to keep the Bronx Bombers in the game. But Pettitte looked sharp enough (despite getting tagged with the loss) in Game 2 of the ALDS vs. the Birds, allowing only three runs and seven hits while walking just one in seven innings, and he’s 19-11 during his career in the postseason.

Pettitte also pitched his best this season at home, recording a 1.85 ERA in seven starts at Yankee Stadium. He didn’t face Detroit this season, and is 10-9 with a 3.66 ERA in his career against the Tigers.

Jim Leyland counters with Fister, no stranger to the Yankees after facing them in the playoffs a year ago. Fister went 1-1 with a 6.52 ERA in two ALDS games against New York last year as he returns to the site where he prevailed in Game 5 by allowing one run over five innings. The Fresno State product faced the Yankees once this season, allowing two runs and eight hits over 6 1/3 IP of a 4-3 loss at Comerica Park on August 9 (a game in which Fister did not get a decision).

The Tigers righty yielded two runs over seven innings Sunday and did not get a decision in a 5-4 home win over the A's.

All eyes in this series are also going to be on Detroit’s Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera, who turned in a season to remember with a .330 average, 44 homers and 139 RBIs. He went 5-for-20 with one RBI in the ALDS vs. Oakland, but is only a .179 hitter in 11 postseason games against the Yankees.

Cabrera has, however, hit safely in all 13 of his LCS games, batting .360 with six homers, 13 RBIs and 14 runs scored. Now, however, he is protected in the lineup by 1B Prince Fielder, who will also be looking to improve upon his .192 postseason BA.

Detroit enters the ALCS hot, having won 11 of its last 15 games. It has also been involved in lots of low-scoring games lately, with only one of its last nine 'over' in the process. The Yankees won four of the season regular-season meetings, taking two of three in The Bronx in late April before splitting a 4-game set at Comerica Park in early August. Five of the seven regular-season meetings went 'over' as well.

[StarDust Bum]

Cardinals & Giants Unlikely NLCS Participants

Madison Bumgarner will start Game 1 of the NLCS for the San Francisco Giants.

For a good portion of each respective NLDS, it looked as if it would be Washington and Cincinnati, the teams with the best regular-season records in the league, squaring of in the NLCS. It didn’t seem likely that we would be watching a San Francisco-St. Louis series instead.

But, that’s exactly what we’ve got as the NLCS begins Sunday night in San Francisco. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. (ET), with big FOX providing the TV coverage of a matchup between the last two World Series winners.

Fitting, perhaps, that they get together after all.

As of early Saturday, only half of the Game 1 pitching matchups had been announced, but it would appear as if Lance Lynn has a good shot to get the call for the Cardinals, especially with Jaime Garcia sidelined by rotator cuff inflammation that will likely require surgery. The Giants will go with Madison Bumgarner, whose turn is next in the rotation after Matt Cain started the decisive fifth game in the Cincinnati NLDS. Ryan Vogelsong will get the call for Game 2.

Of course, the buzz has yet to abate from either of the NLDS these teams were involved in over the past week, both concluding in dramatic fashion. For the Giants, it was rallying from a 2-0 deficit against the Reds by winning the last three games in Cincinnati. For the Cardinals, it was a dramatic rally from an early 6-0 deficit in Game 5 against the Nationals, and scratching for four runs in the ninth inning, all with two outs and even down to the last strike, to eliminate Washington in shocking fashion.

These two have faced off in the NLCS before as well, first in 1987, when the Cardinals survived a Jeffrey Leonard power display to beat the Giants in a riveting seven-game series, before San Francisco got its revenge in five games in 2002, sending Barry Bonds to his only World Series that would ultimately end in disappointment against the upstart Angels.

For the Giants and manager Bruce Bochy, it will be worth watching to see if the lanky lefty Bumgarner has shaken the effects of a poor NLDS effort in Game 2 vs. the Reds when he allowed four runs and seven hits in just 4 1/3 IP of an eventual 9-0 loss. Bumgarner’s last few regular-season starts were also shaky, as he has now allowed four or more runs in six of his last eight outings, with the Giants winning only three of those games.

Bumgarner lost a pair of decisions vs. the Redbirds this season, allowing seven runs and 10 hits over 13 IP covering the two starts, striking out 10 and walking only one in the process. In his career, Bumgarner is 2-2 vs. St. Louis, with a 3.68 ERA and a fairly-solid 1.06 WHIP.

Despite the loss last Sunday vs. the Reds, Bumgarner has been effective this season at AT&T Park, posting a 10-3 record and 2.38 ERA. One of those few home losses, however, was inflicted by the Cardinals.

As the series progresses, we’ll see what Bochy does with his rotation, and if he decides to give Tim Linceucm, who was effective out of the bullpen in the NLDS, a starter’s role, perhaps at the expense of Barry Zito, who wasn’t sharp in Game 4. San Francisco, however, has won 12 straight games started by Zito, so Bochy might not want to tamper with a winning formula, either.

Cards manager Mike Matheny might have no choice other than to start Lynn, who was used out of the bullpen in the Washington series. Vet Chris Carpenter, now 10-3 in his career during the postseason after a solid effort in last Wednesday’s 8-0 win over the Nats, likely gets the call for Game 2.

If it’s Lynn on the mound, the Cards will merely be turning to an 18-game winner, although the Ole Miss alum was pulled from the rotation late in the summer after a series of shaky outings. Lynn returned to the rotation in mid-September and produced solid if not spectacular efforts in his last four starts, posting a 2.19 ERA in the process while posting wins in all of the outings.

Lynn faced the Giants only once this season, although that was when he was slumping in early August, allowing four runs and eight hits over six innings of an eventual 4-2 loss at Busch Stadium.

The teams also split their six regular-season meetings, including a 2-game set at AT&T Park and a 4-game set at Busch.

[StarDust Bum]

ALCS starts Saturday night in the Bronx

DETROIT TIGERS

at NEW YORK YANKEES


American League Championship Series Game 1
First pitch: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

The Yankees are looking for payback facing the same Tigers team that eliminated them from the playoffs last year, when the clubs begin the ALCS on Saturday night.

Both teams survived thrilling five-game series thanks to stellar pitching performances from their aces in Game 5 of the ALDS. Detroit's Justin Verlander threw a shutout in a 6-0 win in Oakland and New York left-hander CC Sabathia also went the distance in a 3-1 victory over Baltimore. This ALCS will begin with Tigers right-hander Doug Fister facing Yankees left-hander Andy Pettitte. Fister pitched very well in Game 2 of the ALDS, allowing just two runs on seven innings with 8 K's and just two walks. He also got the job done in the decisive Game 5 of the 2011 ALCS in Yankee Stadium, holding New York to one run over five innings in a 3-2 victory. Pettitte was the only Yankees starter saddled with a loss in the ALDS, as he gave up three runs in seven innings. He was even less effective the last time he faced the Tigers in 2008, allowing five runs in six innings. Considering the Yankees have played 34 innings in the past three days of intense baseball, they must be exhausted starting this series off with no rest. The pick here is for DETROIT to open the ALCS with the Game 1 victory.

Fister is 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in four career postseason games (three starts, one relief appearance). He did not fare well in his relief outing in Game 2 of last year's ALDS, which was also in Yankee Stadium, giving up six runs on seven hits in just 4.2 innings. The right-hander has thrown the ball pretty well since the start of September, going 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his final six regular-season starts before his ALDS victory. Although his career numbers versus New York in the regular season aren't great (1-2, 5.18 ERA, 1.48 WHIP in four starts), he did throw quality starts against the Bombers in his only two matchups over the past three seasons, allowing just five runs in 13.1 innings (3.38 ERA). With the offensive struggles the Yankees had in the ALDS, posting a collective .211 batting average and .333 slugging percentage, Fister should be able to post another quality start. Although Detroit's bullpen is well rested with two days off, the group was not very effective in the ALDS with a 5.00 ERA over nine innings.

Pettitte will be making his 44th postseason start, compiling a 19-11 record with a 3.83 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in his extensive playoff career. He has never faced the Tigers in any of these outings though. In 23 regular-season starts against Detroit, he is 10-9 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The left-hander has been very good versus American teams this year, going 4-3 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in eight starts. He has been even better in his home ballpark, tallying a 4-1 record with a 1.85 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in seven starts. If he gets into trouble Saturday, he knows that his bullpen has got his back. In the ALDS, Yankees relievers have allowed just one run in 11.1 innings (0.79 ERA) with 10 strikeouts and zero walks. Detroit's offense has outscored New York during the 2012 playoffs so far, averaging 3.2 runs per game and batting .252. However, the Yankees have won six of the 10 meetings in 2012, averaging 5.8 runs per game with a .287 BA and slugging .482. Detroit has 4.8 runs, a .294 BA and .465 SLG against New York in 2012.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, October 13

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DETROIT (91 - 76) at NY YANKEES (98 - 69) - 8:05 PM
DOUG FISTER (R) vs. ANDY PETTITTE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 91-76 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 23-27 (-14.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
DETROIT is 121-186 (-51.5 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
DETROIT is 39-45 (-14.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 4-14 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 87-73 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 53-50 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
DETROIT is 8-16 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 47-44 (-12.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
FISTER is 12-32 (-18.4 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
FISTER is 10-26 (-15.4 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 92-57 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
NY YANKEES are 119-103 (-19.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 70-76 (-23.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 6-4 (+2.3 Units) against DETROIT this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

DOUG FISTER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
FISTER is 2-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.60 and a WHIP of 1.466.
His team's record is 2-3 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-2. (+0.8 units)

ANDY PETTITTE vs. DETROIT since 1997
PETTITTE is 9-6 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.35 and a WHIP of 1.335.
His team's record is 11-7 (-0.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 13-5. (+7.1 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, October 13

Detroit is 9-13 in last 22 road games; they had to wait and see who won last night before flying to NYC. Tigers were 4-6 vs Bronx this season, with seven of 10 games played in Motor City-- Detroit hasn't been in Big Apple since late April, when they lost two of three. Fister is 1-1, 2.57 in last four starts, he allowed two runs in 6.1 IP in his only start vs Bronx this season. Pettitte is 2-2, 2.28 in four starts since coming off DL; he didn't pitch against the Tigers. Sabathia saved the Bronx bullpen with his complete game win last night.




MLB

Saturday, October 13

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ALCS Gm.1 betting preview: Tigers at Yankees
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Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (-135,8.5- overnight odds- not official )

ALCS tied 0-0.

The New York Yankees have no time to rest from their hard-fought triumph over the Baltimore Orioles in the American League Division Series as they host the Detroit Tigers in Game One of the AL Championship Series on Saturday. CC Sabathia tossed a four-hitter and Curtis Granderson went 2-for-3 with a homer as New York posted a 3-1 victory in the decisive fifth game of the ALDS on Friday. Granderson entered the contest just 1-for-16 with nine strikeouts in the series.

Less than 24 hours after wrapping up the series, the Yankees will take on a Tigers team that nearly squandered a 2-0 series lead against the Oakland Athletics. Reigning AL MVP and Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander struck out 11 in a four-hit shutout in Game 5 at Oakland on Thursday, sending Detroit to the ALCS for the second consecutive year. It advanced to the second round last season by defeating New York in the ALDS.
The Yankees went 6-4 against the Tigers during the regular season, taking two of three at Yankee Stadium and four of seven at Comerica Park.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for cool temperatures in the mid-40s this evening in New York. Winds will blow out to left field at 8 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Doug Fister (0-0, 2.57 ERA) vs. Yankees LH Andy Pettitte (0-1, 3.86)

Fister pitched seven innings against Oakland in Game 2 of the ALDS, allowing two runs and six hits with two walks and eight strikeouts en route to a no-decision. The 28-year-old faced New York once during the regular season and did not factor in the decision despite yielding only two runs over 6 1/3 frames. Fister, who is 1-2 with a 5.18 ERA in four career regular-season starts against the Yankees, gave up one run over five innings to pick up the win versus New York in Game 5 of the 2011 ALDS.

Pettitte took the loss in Game 2 of the ALDS against Baltimore, surrendering three runs and seven hits in seven innings. The 40-year-old, whose 19 victories are the most in postseason history, did not face the Tigers this year but is 10-9 with a 3.66 ERA in 23 career starts against the AL Central champions. He has not faced Detroit since 2008. Pettitte is 2-1 in three playoff starts at the new Yankee Stadium.

TRENDS:

* Yankees are 5-1 in Pettitte’s last six starts vs. Tigers.
* Under is 4-1 in Pettitte’s last five starts vs. Tigers.
* Tigers are 4-0 in their last four Saturday games.
* Under is 6-1-2 in Tigers last nine overall.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Pettitte was the only starting pitcher from either the Yankees or Orioles to allow three or more runs in a game during their Division Series.

2. The Tigers have won each of their two playoff meetings with the Yankees, taking the 2006 ALDS in four games and last year's first-round series in five contests.

3. Barring a rainout, New York will become the first team in playoff history to host games on five consecutive days.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Saturday, October 13

American League

AL Championship Series, Game One (Series Tied, 0-0)
Detroit at NY Yankees, 8:05 ET TBS
Fister: 3-13 TSR away with a line of +125 to -125
Pettitte: 8-0 TSR vs. AL Central opponents


MLB
Dunkel

Detroit at NY Yankees
The Yankees look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is coming off a 6-0 win over Oakland and is 3-7 in Doug Fister's last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. New York is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 13

Game 901-902: Detroit at NY Yankees (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 16.559; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 17.495
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130); Under

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Playoff Record :

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/12/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1110 Detail

10/11/12 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*1220 Detail

10/10/12 5-*0-*1 100.00% +*2520 Detail

10/09/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*240 Detail

10/08/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1110 Detail

10/07/12 4-*4-*0 50.00% +*55 Detail

10/06/12 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail

10/05/12 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1610 Detail

Total: 24-13 64.86% + 6235

Saturday, October 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 8:00 PM ET NY Yankees -135 500

NY Yankees - Under 8 500

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 14

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ST LOUIS (92 - 76) at SAN FRANCISCO (97 - 70) - 8:05 PM
LANCE LYNN (R) vs. MADISON BUMGARNER (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-3 (+1.0 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

LANCE LYNN vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LYNN is 0-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 7.15 and a WHIP of 1.324.
His team's record is 0-2 (-3.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
BUMGARNER is 2-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.62 and a WHIP of 1.061.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.3 units)

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DETROIT (91 - 76) at NY YANKEES (98 - 69) - 4:05 PM
ANIBAL SANCHEZ (R) vs. HIROKI KURODA (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 6-4 (+2.3 Units) against DETROIT this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

ANIBAL SANCHEZ vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SANCHEZ is 1-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 7.27 and a WHIP of 1.845.
His team's record is 1-1 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

HIROKI KURODA vs. DETROIT since 1997
KURODA is 0-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.293.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, October 14

Bronx has played three extra inning games in last four days, which is why the Sabathia CG Friday was such a big deal, but now they're down 1-0 and have yet to face Verlander. Detroit is 10-13 in last 23 road games, 5-6 vs Bronx this season, with seven of 11 games played in Motor City-- they split four games here. Sanchez is 1-1, 1.25 in his last three starts; he got crushed in 12-8 loss to Bronx August 8, allowing seven runs in three IP. Kuroda is 2-0, 2.62 in his last three starts, but is going on three days' rest here, first time this year; he had a 3.38 RA in two no-decisions vs Detroit this year (17H in 13.1 IP).

Lynn was 4-0, 2.38 in four September starts, but somehow hasn't gotten start in playoffs yet; he allowed three runs in 3.2 IP in four relief stints in playoffs vs Braves/Nats. Lynn lost 4-2 to Giants August 7, allowing four runs in six IP. Bumgarner is 2-5, 7.22 in his last eight starts; he was 0-2, 4.73 in two starts vs St Louis this year. Cardinals pulled off miracle finish late Friday night, now head west winners in 12 of their last 17 games- they split six games with the Giants this year, splitting pair here in May. SF has edge in prep time.




MLB

Sunday, October 14

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Trend Report
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4:07 PM
DETROIT vs. NY YANKEES
Detroit is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
NY Yankees are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games at home

8:07 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
St. Louis is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against St. Louis


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MLB

Sunday, October 14

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NLCS betting preview: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
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St. Louis Cardinals (88-74) vs. San Francisco Giants (94-68)

Regular season head-to-head: The Giants and Cardinals split a two-game series at AT&T Park in May and split four games at Busch Stadium in August.

Series odds: Giants -120, Cardinals +100 courtesy of sportsbook.ag

PITCHING

Chris Carpenter, who has a 10-2 postseason record with a 2.86 ERA, will get the ball at least twice in this series. But The Cardinals will be without Jaime Garcia against the Giants. The lefty exited after two innings vs. Washington because of a strained rotator cuff and was taken off the roster. That will put more pressure on Adam Wainwright, who was hammered in a no-decision against the Nationals on Friday, allowing six runs on seven hits in just 2 2/3 innings of work, and Kyle Lohse.

Giants’ starters had a 5.16 ERA in the series against the Reds. Tim Lincecum could be the X-factor after pitching exceptionally well out of the bullpen in the NLDS. Manager Bruce Bochy has gone on the record saying he will “revamp” his rotation to include Lincecum against the Cardinals. Relievers Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla held their own in the NLDS and have shared the closer’s role effectively in the absence of the injured Brian Wilson.

Edge: Tie

HITTING

The Giants’ .194 team batting average was the second-worst of any team to win a division series in the Wild Card era. But San Francisco batters had an uncanny ability to come through in the clutch late in the series against Cincinnati. The Giants were 0-for-12 with six strikeouts with runners in scoring position in the first three games and 5-for-15 with two homers in Games 4 and 5.

The Cardinals pounded out 32 runs (6.4 per game) in five games against a solid Nationals’ pitching staff. The new Mr. October, David Freese, is once again proving he’s a fall performer with his .381 batting average this postseason. Carlos Beltran has also been an offensive juggernaut for St. Louis, boasting a .409 average with two key homers. The Cardinals have also been getting an unexpected offensive contribution from infielder Daniel Descalso, who has six RBIs in his last six contests.

Edge: Cardinals

INTANGIBLES

The Cardinals have won their last six elimination playoff games and will play in their seventh NLCS in the last 12 years. St. Louis enters on a high after overcoming a six-run deficit in Game 5 to dispose of the Nationals.

The Giants became the ninth team to overcome a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-five postseason series and first to do it by winning the final three games on the road, rallying past Cincinnati.

Edge: Tie. The past two World Series champions meet to see who gets a chance to compete for baseball supremacy in 2012. Both of these clubs boast rosters full of players that are proven playoff performers.


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MLB

Sunday, October 14

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ALCS betting preview: Tigers at Yankees
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Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (-115, 8.5)

Detroit leads series 1-0

If the New York Yankees hope to capture their 28th world championship this postseason, they'll have to do it without their captain. New York attempts to even the American League Championship Series at one win apiece when it hosts the Detroit Tigers on Sunday evening. Derek Jeter will be watching from the sidelines after fracturing his left ankle in the 12th inning of Detroit's 6-4 victory in the series opener on Saturday.

After fielding Jhonny Peralta's grounder, Jeter collapsed to the ground and remained there before being helped to the dugout, with his left foot never touching the ground. Jeter, who recorded his 200th career playoff hit in the second inning, has been one of the Yankees' best hitters this postseason, going 9-for-27 with a double, triple and two RBIs. He also leads the team with four runs scored.

New York limited Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera to one hit in four at-bats and held Prince Fielder to a pair of singles, including one that plated a run. But the Yankees couldn't contain Delmon Young, who delivered an RBI single in the sixth inning, belted his franchise playoff-record sixth home run in the eighth and snapped a 4-4 tie in the 12th with a run-scoring double.

TV: 4:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid 60s. Winds are expected to blow SSW at 13 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (0-1, 2.84 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Hiroki Kuroda (0-0, 2.16)

Sanchez pitched well in his first career playoff appearance on Tuesday but still was tagged with the loss after allowing two runs and five hits over 6 1/3 innings in Game 3 of the AL Division Series against Oakland. He went just 4-6 in 12 starts with Detroit after being acquired from Miami but was strong down the stretch, yielding two runs or less in six of his final eight outings. Sanchez was tagged for seven runs and seven hits over three innings of a loss to New York on Aug. 8.

Kuroda will be pitching on three days' rest for the first time in his major-league career. The 37-year-old settled for a no-decision in Game Three of the ALDS against Baltimore on Wednesday after allowing just two runs and five hits over 8 1/3 innings. Kuroda, who recorded 11 of his 16 regular-season victories this year at home, is 0-1 with a 3.72 ERA in three career starts versus the Tigers.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in New York.
* Tigers are 19-40 in the last 59 meetings in New York.

UMP TRENDS - Rob Drake:

* Over is 3-0-1 in Drakes last four games behind home plate.
* Home team is 9-3 in Drakes last 12 games behind home plate.
* Yankees are 8-1 in their last nine games with Drake behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Yankees stars Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher are a combined 10-for-93 with 31 strikeouts this postseason.

2. New York will be playing at home for the fifth consecutive day, becoming the first team to do so in postseason history.

3. Swisher is 1-for-34 lifetime in the playoffs with runners in scoring position.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

St. Louis at San Francisco
The Cardinals look to build on their 8-2 record in their last 10 games following an off day. St. Louis is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 14

Game 903-904: St. Louis at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 16.793; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.167
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+115); Over

Game 905-906: Detroit at NY Yankees (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 15.774; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 17.280
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Cardinals (88-74) at Giants (94-68)

Game: 1
Venue: AT&T Park
Date: October 14, 2012 8:07 PM EDT

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - As many times as he gets asked, Cardinals closer Jason Motte still has no perfect answer for how St. Louis found a way to win at Washington after trailing 6-0 and advance to the NL championship series again.

``These guys just prove what big hearts they have and how much they go out there and work their butts off,' said Motte, Friday night's winning pitcher in Game 5. ``Someone asked me last night how we keep doing it, and I said, `I don't know, maybe we're just stubborn. We just don't give up.' That's kind of how you have to be.'

The San Francisco Giants get it, all right. They've been doing it the same way.

The last two World Series winners sure are showing their championship mettle in mid-October.

St. Louis manager Mike Matheny will watch the game again, once things slow down, so he can truly appreciate just what his Cardinals accomplished in beating the Nationals - the team with baseball's best record this season.

San Francisco skipper Bruce Bochy doesn't need another look to know how impressive the reigning World Series champions' ninth-inning comeback was for a 9-7 victory in the nation's capital.

Bochy's team had its own remarkable rally that's not quite as fresh as the Cardinals' feat: Three road wins at Cincinnati to advance after dropping the first two games of the division series at home to the Reds.

They will face off in Game 1 of the NLCS on Sunday night at San Francisco's AT&T Park. Left-hander Madison Bumgarner gets the ball for the Giants against 6-foot-5 right-hander Lance Lynn.

``Both teams had their backs against the wall,' Bochy said. ``It's impressive what the Cardinals did. And, really, if you look at the game we had and the game they had, they were similar. We were up 6-0, barely hung on, and they found a way to get it done. ... I think that says a lot about the two clubs, the character of the clubs and how hard they fight - and it should be a really hard-fought series here.'

Bumgarner, a 16-game winner this year, lost Game 2 of the NL division series here to Cincinnati. But the strong left-hander is not one to get rattled, and he gained his share of experience during the Giants' surprising run to the World Series title in 2010 - the first for the franchise since moving West in 1958.

``I felt good last time, things just didn't go my way,' Bumgarner said. ``That's the way this game is.'

While the Giants became the eighth team to erase a 2-0 deficit to win a best-of-five series and first in major league history to do it on the road, the Cardinals earned the biggest comeback ever in a winner-take-all postseason game, according to STATS LLC.

``It really hasn't sunk in,' Matheny said after an all-night, cross-country trip to the Bay Area. ``I see a knockdown-drag out ahead of us. I'm certain Major League Baseball has to be very pleased with the caliber of baseball that's happened so far in this postseason. And I don't see any reason why the excitement wouldn't continue. We're looking at two well-rounded teams.'

These clubs have played twice previously in the NLCS, most recently in 2002. The Barry Bonds-led Giants went on to the World Series only to fall short in the decisive Game 7 against the wild-card Angels after coming within six outs of a championship in Game 6.

Daniel Descalso hit a tying, two-out single, and Pete Kozma added a go-ahead, two-run single to lead the Cardinals' rally. Now, Descalso gets to play back home in his native Bay Area, where he grew up going to Athletics games across San Francisco Bay in Oakland.

``It was a long night for us,' Descalso said. ``It's nice we had this day off to kind of regroup and get a little rest. But it's hard not to be excited after a game like last night, the way that game ended, and to get on a plane and fly all the way across country. We're still recovering.'

The Giants, all the while, waited out the game on their team plane still parked on the tarmac in Cincinnati. Players gathered around iPads to watch the improbable comeback by a Cardinals club managed by former Giants catcher, Matheny.

The Cardinals have won all six of their games when facing elimination the past two years, down to their final strike not once but twice against the Texas Rangers in last year's World Series before prevailing.

This time, they faced the same situation against the team with a majors-best 98 wins.

``I don't why we do it. We love the dramatics. I'd like us to not keep waiting until the last strike,' pitcher Kyle Lohse said, ``because that's too much for my heart to handle.'

The Giants barely beat St. Louis to the West Coast after getting delayed more than three hours as their plane refueled and dealt with mechanical problems.

Initially, the plane had enough fuel to take the NL West winners to Washington. Instead, the Giants got to come home. They landed at 5:09 a.m.

``Everyone was rooting and cheering for the Cardinals because we wanted to go home,' third baseman Pablo Sandoval said. ``I was cheering for St. Louis. I was excited to be back home. Probably almost everybody was cheering for the Cardinals. Every guy was happy to be home. Once we were in the air, I slept the whole flight.'

Yankees manager Joe Girardi fell asleep before the NL clincher ended. The last thing he remembered, the Cardinals were trailing 7-5. His television was still on, and when he opened his eyes at one point he saw the final score.

``I said, `What happened?'' he said. ``I looked at it, the game was over and I closed my eyes and went back to bed. Pretty amazing. You think about the games, and you are down 6-0 and you're able to come back. And you keep going at it. This first round was probably as good as it gets. Probably as good of baseball as we have seen when you talk about eight teams playing.'

Bochy will carry all five of his starting pitchers again this round, with Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito available out of the bullpen. Matt Cain is expected to go in Game 3, following fellow right-hander Ryan Vogelsong in Monday's Game 2.

Road weary and riding high, the Cardinals and Giants are counting on more close games and playing all 27 outs no matter who is on the mound.

``It's definitely a fun matchup,' said Giants catcher Buster Posey, whose grand slam helped seal Game 5 against the Reds. ``These should be some fun games to watch. Both teams have good arms, good offenses. And the resiliency of both teams is the strength of both teams.'

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Tigers (88-74) at Yankees (95-67)

Game: 2
Venue: Yankee Stadium
Date: October 14, 2012 4:07 PM EDT

After another long night in the Bronx, the New York Yankees will now be without their captain as they try to avoid a two-game deficit in the AL championship series.

Derek Jeter is out for the rest of the postseason with a broken left ankle for the Yankees, who will send Hiroki Kuroda to the mound on three days' rest as they try to draw even with the Detroit Tigers on Sunday in Game 2.

The Yankees dropped Saturday's opener 6-4 in 12 innings despite rallying from four runs down in the ninth on two-run homers by Ichiro Suzuki and Raul Ibanez off Tigers closer Jose Valverde.

But the defeat became an afterthought when Jeter fractured his ankle in the 12th. It happened when he dove to his left for a grounder hit by Jhonny Peralta, was unable to put weight on his left leg and had to be helped off the field by manager Joe Girardi and trainer Steve Donahue.

"They talked about a three-month recovery period," Girardi said. "Won't jeopardize his career, but he will not be playing any more for us this year."

Jeter, who will not need surgery, recorded his 200th career postseason hit Saturday and is tied with Suzuki for the team lead with nine hits in the playoffs. Girardi said that Eduardo Nunez, who was left off the ALCS roster, will be added to replace Jeter.

The manager compared losing Jeter to how the Yankees lost iconic closer Mariano Rivera to a torn ACL in May.

"We have to find a way to try to get it done," Girardi said. "I think some people left us for dead when Mo went down and here we are in the ALCS."

This unprecedented stretch of five playoff home games in as many days concludes Sunday after New York won in 12 innings Wednesday and lost in 13 on Thursday in a division series against Baltimore.

These teams needed aces Justin Verlander of Detroit and CC Sabathia of New York to capture decisive Game 5s, leaving those pitchers unavailable this weekend. Verlander will start Game 3 on Tuesday in Detroit and Sabathia Game 4 the next day.

It means that a loss by Kuroda (0-0, 2.16 ERA) would leave the Yankees down 2-0 ahead of facing the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and MVP in Verlander in the third game on the road.

Kuroda has never pitched on short rest. Girardi had few Game 2 options with the ALCS starting one day after the Yankees took Game 5 over the Orioles.

"I am not crazy about it, but there is not really a lot I can do about it, so we have to live with it," Girardi said. "The extra wild card was added, and this is a function of that because the TV schedule was set."

Girardi re-installed Alex Rodriguez in the lineup Saturday in the No. 6 slot after benching the three-time AL MVP on Friday. Rodriguez went 0 for 3 to drop to 2 for 19 with 10 strikeouts in the playoffs, failing with the bases loaded in the first inning in the ALCS opener before he was replaced by a pinch-hitter for the third straight start.

Detroit, meanwhile, was victorious but has questions to ask about Valverde. The closer blew a two-run lead in the ninth inning with a chance to eliminate Oakland in a 4-3 road loss Wednesday, and his career postseason ERA has ballooned to 8.79.

``We really want to put our heads together and discuss it first, to be honest with you, and get together as a coaching staff and talk about it,' Tigers manager Jim Leyland said.

Delmon Young bailed out the beleaguered closer by doubling in the go-ahead run in the 12th. Young, who homered three times in last year's division series against the Yankees, also went deep in Game 1 as part of a three-hit night.

The Tigers will get their third look this year at Kuroda, who had a 3.38 ERA and no decisions in two regular-season outings.

Kuroda is unsure of what to expect Sunday after yielding two runs over 8 1-3 innings Wednesday in a 3-2, 12-inning win over the Orioles.

"This is probably the shortest rest that I have ever had in my baseball career, but at this point of the season, you know, we can't really be talking about anything but to win," Kuroda said through an interpreter. "So I'm just going to prepare myself to win this game, like I always have been, throughout the season."

Kuroda's lone career LCS start was a disaster in 2009 with the Dodgers. He lasted 1 1-3 innings and was charged with six runs in an 11-0 defeat at Philadelphia in Game 3.

The right-hander is 11-6 with a 2.69 ERA in 20 home starts this year including Wednesday's outing, and is 5-2 with a 1.99 ERA in eight overall day outings.

Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera is 4 for 9 with two homers lifetime against Kuroda.

Anibal Sanchez (0-1, 2.84) will start for the Tigers. Sanchez has never pitched at the current Yankee Stadium, but has fond memories of the Bronx since he won his big-league debut in the old one with Florida in 2006.

"I think about it, you know, that's my first time in the new stadium, the Yankee Stadium," Sanchez said. "I got my debut in the old stadium, and this was the first time my mom come to U.S."

The right-hander's only other career start against New York came Aug. 8 when he was tagged for seven runs over seven-plus innings in a 12-8 defeat.

[StarDust Bum]

2012 MLB Playoff Results

October 12, 2012

Overall Results:
-- Road teams are 12-9
-- Favorites are 10-11
-- Favorites that won are 6-4 on the Run-Line (-1.5)
-- The 'under' is 11-10

American League Championship Series N.Y. Yankees vs. Detroit
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Detroit (+122) at N.Y. Yankees 6-4 UNDERDOG OVER (7.5)
2 Detroit at N.Y. Yankees Sun Oct. 14 - -
3 N.Y. Yankees at Detroit Tue Oct. 16 - -
4 N.Y. Yankees at Detroit Wed Oct. 17 - -
5* N.Y. Yankees at Detroit Thu Oct. 18 - -
6* Detroit at N.Y. Yankees Sat Oct. 20 - -
7* Detroit at N.Y. Yankees Sun Oct. 21 - -

National League Championship Series St. Louis vs. San Francisco
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 St. Louis at San Francisco Sun Oct. 14 - -
2 St. Louis at San Francisco Mon Oct 15 - -
3 San Francisco at St. Louis Wed Oct 17 - -
4 San Francisco at St. Louis Thu Oct 18 - -
5* San Francisco at St. Louis Fri Oct 19 - -
6* St. Louis at San Francisco Sun Oct 21 - -
7* St. Louis at San Francisco Mon Oct 22 - -

American League Divisional Series

N.Y. Yankees vs. Baltimore
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 N.Y. Yankees (-170) at Baltimore 7-2 FAVORITE OVER (7.5)
2 N.Y. Yankees at Baltimore (+117) 3-2 UNDERDOG UNDER (8)
3 Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees (-175) 3-2 FAVORITE UNDER (8.5)
4 Baltimore (+150) at N.Y. Yankees 2-1 UNDERDOG UNDER (8.5)
5 Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees (-200) 3-1 FAVORITE UNDER (7.5)

Detroit vs. Oakland
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Oakland at Detroit (-185) 4-1 FAVORITE UNDER (7.5)
2 Oakland at Detroit (-155) 5-4 FAVORITE OVER (7.5)
3 Detroit at Oakland (-135) 2-0 FAVORITE UNDER (7)
4 Detroit at Oakland (-105) 4-3 FAVORITE PUSH (7)
5 Detroit (-130) at Oakland 6-0 FAVORITE UNDER (6.5)

National League Divisional Series San Francisco vs. Cincinnati
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Cincinnati (+120) at San Francisco 5-2 UNDERDOG OVER (6.5)
2 Cincinnati (+140) at San Francisco 9-0 UNDERDOG OVER (7)
3 San Francisco (+130) at Cincinnati 2-1 UNDERDOG UNDER (7.5)
4 San Francisco (+135) at Cincinnati 8-3 UNDERDOG OVER (8)
5 San Francisco (+115) at Cincinnati 6-4 UNDERDOG OVER (7)

Washington vs. St. Louis
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Washington (+105) at St. Louis 3-2 UNDERDOG UNDER (7)
2 Washington at St. Louis (-105) 12-4 FAVORITE OVER (7.5)
3 St. Louis (+100) at Washington 8-0 UNDERDOG OVER (7.5)
4 St. Louis at Washington (-110) 2-1 FAVORITE UNDER (8)
5 St. Louis (+118) at Washington 9-7 UNDERDOG OVER (6.5)

[StarDust Bum]

NLCS begins Sunday in San Francisco

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS


National League Championship Series Game 1
First pitch: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -135, St. Louis +125, Total: 7

The past two World Series champions continue their quest for another title when St. Louis visits San Francisco for Game 1 of the NLCS on Sunday night.

Both teams were able to complete impressive comebacks in the NLDS, as the Cardinals erased a 6-0 deficit in the decisive Game 5 in Washington to win 9-7, while the Giants won three straight road games in Cincinnati to overcome an 0-2 series hole. Sunday's series begins with St. Louis right-hander Lance Lynn facing Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner. Lynn, who will be making his first-ever playoff start, has led his team to six straight victories when he starts. However, Bumgarner has struggled recently, allowing at least four runs in six of his past eight starts (6.15 ERA, 1.71 WHIP), including a loss in Game 2 of the NLDS when he allowed four runs in 4.1 innings. And Sunday could be another rough outing considering how well St. Louis hits left-handed starters, scoring 5.5 runs per game and posting a 32-19 record (.627) in 2012. The Cards are also putting up 6.3 runs per game in the 2012 postseason, far better than the 3.6 runs per game that San Francisco has. The pick here is for underdog ST. LOUIS to begin the NLCS with the Game 1 victory.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Cardinals:

ST. LOUIS is 43-19 (69.4%, +27.2 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST. LOUIS 5.4, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 3*).

Lynn (17-5, 3.67 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) has been in a relief role so far in the playoffs, allowing three runs on four hits and two walks in just 3.2 innings. Lynn was much more effective during last year's World Series run, going 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in 11 innings of work out of the bullpen. He replaced the injured Jaime Garcia in Game 2 of the NLDS, earning the victory in a 12-4 blowout win. Lynn has led his team to a 21-8 record when he starts this season, including 12-5 on the road despite a mediocre 3.92 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Lynn has struggled in his two career appearances versus San Francisco, both starts. In June of 2011, he allowed five runs in 5.1 innings, and this season, he surrendered four runs on eight hits and three walks in six innings on August 7, losing 4-2. He has never pitched in AT&T Park, but he should be able to hold a Giants lineup in check, considering they average 3.7 runs per game at home this year. Lynn has averaged just 5.8 innings per start this season, but will be expected to go at least seven innings with an overused bullpen that has been terrible on the road this season, going 9-18 with a 4.34 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 11 blown saves in 31 chances.

Bumgarner (16-12, 3.47 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) has been tremendous at home this season, going 10-4 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Although his first playoff start in 2012 didn't go as planned (4.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER), he pitched very well in the 2010 postseason, going 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in four games (3 starts, 1 relief appearance). The southpaw has faced St. Louis four times in his career with pretty good success, going 2-2 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, racking up three quality starts and 20 K's in 27.1 IP. But his least effective outing against the Cards was his lone home tilt, when he allowed four runs in 7.1 innings in a 4-1 loss on May 16. Bumgarner averages 6.4 innings per start and has a strong bullpen to rely on. San Francisco relievers are 25-19 with a 3.54 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 81% save conversion rate overall, and are even more efficient at home, going 11-8 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Sunday, October 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit 3 Bot 9 Detroit +134 500

NY Yankees 0 Under 8 500

St. Louis - 8:00 PM ET St. Louis +111 500

San Francisco - Over 7 500

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, October 15

National League

NL Championship Series, Game Two (St. Louis Leads, 1-0)
St. Louis at San Francisco, 8:05 ET FOX
Carpenter: 4-12 TSR pitching off BB team wins
Vogelsong: 11-3 TSR after allowing 1 or 0 ER's last start


MLB

Monday, October 15

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NLCS betting preview: Cardinals at Giants
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St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants (-111, 6.5)

St. Louis leads series 1-0.

The San Francisco Giants are still seeking their first win at home in the postseason as they prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series. The Giants dropped the best-of-seven series opener 6-4 on Sunday when David Freese and Carlos Beltran each hit two-run homers to lead the Cardinals’ attack. San Francisco, which is in danger of losing its first two games at home for the second straight playoff series, turns to Ryan Vogelsong in Game 2. Matt Cain will start Game 3, with Tim Lincecum expected to start Game 4 despite throwing two scoreless innings in relief on Sunday. The Giants’ rotation hasn’t recorded a quality start through six postseason games, and Madison Bumgarner’s status is in doubt after another shaky outing in Game 1.

While the Giants have been outscored 20-6 in their three postseason losses at AT&T Park, the Cardinals quickly made themselves comfortable on Sunday. Freese’s home run pushed his career postseason total to six, and Beltran’s blast was his 14th career postseason home run in 108 at-bats. Freese has 25 RBI in his first 25 career postseason games, tying him for second all time behind Lou Gehrig, who had 32. After struggling early in the season, the Cardinals’ bullpen is peaking at the right time. Six St. Louis relievers tossed 5 1/3 scoreless innings on Sunday, with Jason Motte recording his second save of the postseason. Second baseman Daniel Descalso, a native of the San Francisco Bay Area, had two hits in Game 1 and is batting .308 (8-for-26) in the postseason.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, FOX

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s under clear skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 9 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants RH Ryan Vogelsong (0-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Chris Carpenter (1-0, 0.00)

Vogelsong earned a no-decision in his first career playoff start in Game 3 of the NLDS against Cincinnati, giving up one run on three hits over five innings. His 2.86 ERA in 15 regular-season home starts ranked 10th in the NL, and he finished the regular season with a 0.53 ERA over his final three starts. Beltran is 4-for-11 with a home run against Vogelsong, who threw seven scoreless innings and gave up three hits in a 15-0 win at Busch Stadium on Aug. 8.

Carpenter is set to make his fifth start of the season and the sixth NLCS start of his career after pitching 5 2/3 shutout innings in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Nationals. He’s 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA in eight career starts against the Giants, including 2-0 with a 4.26 ERA at AT&T Park. He’s one win shy of tying Greg Maddux and Curt Schilling for the fifth-most playoff victories in history (11). Hunter Pence is 5-for-27 with seven strikeouts against Carpenter, who missed the first 150 games of the season with a right shoulder injury.

TRENDS:

*Cardinals are 6-1 in Carpenter’s last seven starts vs. Giants.
* Cardinals are 5-0 in their last five games as an underdog.
* Giants are 1-4 in their last five playoff games as a favorite.
* Over is 7-0 in Giants last seven playoff home games.

UMP TRENDS-Chris Guccione

* Over is 4-0-1 in Guccione’s last five games behind home plate.
* Giants are 4-1 in their last five games with Guccione behind home plate.
* Over is 4-0 in Guccione’s last four Monday games behind home plate.
* Home team is 5-0 in Guccione’s last five games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Beltran’s .824 slugging percentage in 29 playoff games is the highest in baseball history.

2. Lincecum has thrown 8 1/3 relief innings in the postseason, allowing three hits, two walks and one earned run with nine strikeouts.

3. The Cardinals’ Yadier Molina has 57 postseason hits, tied for third all-time among catchers.

[StarDust Bum]

Carpenter looks to give Cards 2-0 NLCS lead

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS


National League Championship Series Game 2 - St. Louis leads series 1-0
First pitch: Monday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -110, St. Louis +100, Total: 6.5

The Giants will look to even the NLCS at 1-1 with Ryan Vogelsong taking the hill against Chris Carpenter on Monday night.

Carpenter has a magic touch when it comes to postseason baseball with a 10-2 career record and 2.88 ERA. In just four starts this season after shoulder surgery, Carpenter had a 2.78 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with a 1-2 record, averaging just 5.7 innings per start. Vogelsong ended the year with a 3.33 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, but was remarkably better at home all season with a 2.86 ERA and 1.20 WHIP at AT&T Park. He also has been spectacular lately with a 0.56 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his past three starts. Given the series opener, in which both teams' starters did not make it out of the fourth inning, the team with the more durable starter may bring his team a big benefit in this one. Whereas Carpenter has struggled to go deep into games, and is supported by a bullpen that has a 10-18 record on the road, Vogelsong has averaged 6.3 innings per start at home this year. And with the Cardinals 42-44 on the road this year, take SAN FRANCISCO to even the series on Monday.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also side with the Giants:

ST LOUIS is 7-16 (-14.5 Units) against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The average score was ST LOUIS 3.5, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 3*).

CARPENTER is 4-12 (-15.8 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). The average score was CARPENTER 2.6, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 3*).

The Giants had no problem winning at home this season with a 48-33 record (.593) in the regular season, but they are now 0-3 at AT&T Park since the playoffs began. Vogelsong will look to change that despite his historical struggles against the Cardinals. In six career starts he has a 1-4 record, 6.83 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He did, however, own the Redbirds in his lone start against them this season, holding them to just three hits over seven shutout innings of a 15-0 victory. And he has one of baseball’s best bullpens at his back, with Giants relievers registering a 3.16 ERA and 1.20 WHIP at home, where they have converted 24 of 30 (80%) save opportunities.

Carpenter has not faced the Giants this year, but has done so eight times in his career, compiling a 4-1 record, 3.57 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He was the winner in both of his previous outings in San Francisco. The real issue for him though, is if his team can hold a lead once he leaves. Cardinals relievers have a 4.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP on the road with just 21 saves in 32 opportunities (65%). Play against.