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1* Tenn over Pitt
Would wait til close to gametime to see if could get +7
This years Steelers are not the Steelers of old. They should not be almost a TD road fav on a short week. They are 2nd to last in YPR and 18th in YPPA. Their defense used to be their strong point, but they are middle of the road against the run (15th) and decent versus the pass (10th YPPA). Don't get me wrong, Tennessee is not good, but they are better than their 30-7 shellacking last week versus the Vikings. This actually sets them up for a 60-35-1 ATS (63%). Give me the Titans against the overrated Steelers who are giving too many points simply because of their name.
2* Miami over St. Louis (probable upgrade to 3*)
Would see if this line gets to 3
Until the public and Vegas realizes how good the Phins are there is extreme value on them. They allow an absurd 2.7 YPR (1st in league) and their pass D is pretty good too allowing 7 YPPA (13th). They are above average in the air (12th YPPA) and average rushing the ball (4 YPR). I fired a 4* on the Rams last week, but was because of their great schedule spot. They are not a good football team. They are 24th in YPR and 21st in YPPA. Their pass D is pretty good, but their run D is 23rd. They rams are coming off 2 upset wins and their is a 55-27 ATS trend against them (for this plus other variables). This is a big schedule game for Miami because they are off 2 road games, and have 2 road games next. They have a bye next week and I like to wager on teams with a bye next week.
2* Seattle over NE
The public is going to be on NE, so I would wait until close to gametime
The Seahawks have the second best D in the league (behind SF) allowing only 3.2 YPR (2nd in NFL) and 6 YPPA (2nd in NFL). If anyone can slow down NE's offense it is them.. The Pats D struggles allowing 7.7 YPPA (23rd), so the Hawks will be able to move the ball effectively. The Pats are in a tough schedule spot (3rd road game out of last 4) and they face a division rival in the NYJ next week. This is a good schedule spot for the Hawks-they are off 2 road games and have to play 2 road after this…they need this game. The Seahawks set up for a great 57% ATS trend (over 300+ games). My calculated line is NE -2.5. Gimme the live dog at home!
2* GB over Houston (possible 3* upgrade)
Would see if this line climbs before gametime
Houston has played a cupcake schedule so far and now they have to face an above average team. These teams are pretty equal statistically, and I have the line at Houston -3. So when I saw it was over the key number of 3 I jumped on GB. After GB's loss as a 7 point fav, they fall into a great trend that is 138-78-8 (64%) ATS. GB has been over valued until this point (as evident by their 3 straight ATS losses), but now I think they are undervalued in this spot.
1* Tenn over Pitt
Would wait til close to gametime to see if could get +7
This years Steelers are not the Steelers of old. They should not be almost a TD road fav on a short week. They are 2nd to last in YPR and 18th in YPPA. Their defense used to be their strong point, but they are middle of the road against the run (15th) and decent versus the pass (10th YPPA). Don't get me wrong, Tennessee is not good, but they are better than their 30-7 shellacking last week versus the Vikings. This actually sets them up for a 60-35-1 ATS (63%). Give me the Titans against the overrated Steelers who are giving too many points simply because of their name.
2* Miami over St. Louis (probable upgrade to 3*)
Would see if this line gets to 3
Until the public and Vegas realizes how good the Phins are there is extreme value on them. They allow an absurd 2.7 YPR (1st in league) and their pass D is pretty good too allowing 7 YPPA (13th). They are above average in the air (12th YPPA) and average rushing the ball (4 YPR). I fired a 4* on the Rams last week, but was because of their great schedule spot. They are not a good football team. They are 24th in YPR and 21st in YPPA. Their pass D is pretty good, but their run D is 23rd. They rams are coming off 2 upset wins and their is a 55-27 ATS trend against them (for this plus other variables). This is a big schedule game for Miami because they are off 2 road games, and have 2 road games next. They have a bye next week and I like to wager on teams with a bye next week.
2* Seattle over NE
The public is going to be on NE, so I would wait until close to gametime
The Seahawks have the second best D in the league (behind SF) allowing only 3.2 YPR (2nd in NFL) and 6 YPPA (2nd in NFL). If anyone can slow down NE's offense it is them.. The Pats D struggles allowing 7.7 YPPA (23rd), so the Hawks will be able to move the ball effectively. The Pats are in a tough schedule spot (3rd road game out of last 4) and they face a division rival in the NYJ next week. This is a good schedule spot for the Hawks-they are off 2 road games and have to play 2 road after this…they need this game. The Seahawks set up for a great 57% ATS trend (over 300+ games). My calculated line is NE -2.5. Gimme the live dog at home!
2* GB over Houston (possible 3* upgrade)
Would see if this line climbs before gametime
Houston has played a cupcake schedule so far and now they have to face an above average team. These teams are pretty equal statistically, and I have the line at Houston -3. So when I saw it was over the key number of 3 I jumped on GB. After GB's loss as a 7 point fav, they fall into a great trend that is 138-78-8 (64%) ATS. GB has been over valued until this point (as evident by their 3 straight ATS losses), but now I think they are undervalued in this spot.
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