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**Udog** · 10-11-2012, 08:49 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Some NFL trends to peruse, with Week 6 on the horizon.....

-- Steelers covered twice in their last ten road games.

-- Texans are 8-2-1 vs spread in last 11 home games.

-- Chiefs covered seven of last ten in game before a bye.

-- Giants covered six of last eight games as a road underdog.

-- Redskins are 5-10 vs spread in last 15 non-divisional games.

-- Falcons covered eight of last nine in game before a bye.

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Our NFL List of 13...........

32) Titans—Odd Stat of the Day: Home underdogs are 5-5 vs spread in divisional games this year; 5-0 in NFC games, 0-5 in AFC.

31) Jaguars—Are planning to play one game a year in London every year, starting next season; they want the British to adopt the Jags as their team, and take vacations to Florida to watch them play. Alrighty then.

30) Chiefs—GM Scott Pioli is another so-called genius whose made a career out of knowing Tom Brady. Seriously, Brady should get a cut out of these nitwits’ salaries.

??) Raiders—0-9 vs spread in game following their last nine byes.

??) Redskins—Finally put kicker Billy Cundiff out of his misery after he missed 31-yard FGs in consecutive games.

8) Chargers—Philip Rivers is this generation’s Billy Kilmer, same number and all. Bolts need a sturdier left tackle.

7) Bears—Lovie Smith teams consistently force a lot of turnovers; they’ve got five defensive TDs in last three games.

6) Giants—Very explosive with ball; should be good game in Candlestick Sunday. Had tremendous balance vs Browns last week.

5) Ravens—That isn’t Ray Lewis’ mom in that NFL/safety commercial with Tom Brady, its an actress. The doctor in that commercial is an actor, too.

4) 49ers-- +5 in turnovers this year, making them +33 in last 21 regular season games. Have revenge motive this weekend vs Giants.

3) Patriots—Interesting article written by Greg Bedard this week about the terminology teams use in their offenses. New England’s requires much more memorization than most teams’ do.

2) Texans—Played scared Monday night, in game they should’ve won by 2 TDs. Better show more nerve when they face better teams, like in next two weeks. Have an awful lot of offensive weapons.

1) Falcons—Survived close games with lesser teams (Panthers/Redskins) last two weeks. Need to start putting these teams away earlier.

**Udog** · 10-11-2012, 08:50 AM

WNBA
Dunkel

Indiana at Connecticut
The Sun look to take advantage of an Indiana team that is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games in Connecticut. Connecticut is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 11

Game 611-612: Indiana at Connecticut (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 113.999; Connecticut 121.288
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 7 1/2; 143
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4 1/2); Under

WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 11

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INDIANA (25 - 14) at CONNECTICUT (28 - 10) - 10/11/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 81-120 ATS (-51.0 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
INDIANA is 30-52 ATS (-27.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
INDIANA is 56-87 ATS (-39.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games since 1997.
CONNECTICUT is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 11-19 ATS (-9.9 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 7-7 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 8-7 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
10 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Thursday, October 11

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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
INDIANA vs. CONNECTICUT
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 7 games when playing on the road against Connecticut
Indiana is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Connecticut
Connecticut is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Connecticut's last 7 games

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**Udog** · 10-11-2012, 08:56 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Detroit at Oakland
The A's look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 0-6 ATS in Justin Verlander's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Oakland is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+120). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 11

Game 933-934: San Francisco at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.061; Cincinnati (Latos) 16.018
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); Under

Game 935-936: St. Louis at Washington (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 17.126; Washington (Detwiler) 15.522
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Over

Game 937-938: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Saunders) 16.822; NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.613
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+125); Under

Game 939-940: Detroit at Oakland (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.715; Oakland (Parker) 16.478
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+120); Over

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, October 11

Huge amount of pressure on favored Washington to stay alive here, seeing as best pitcher Strasburg is healthy but inactive. Detwiler is 1-2, 7.03 in his last five starts; he allowed seven runs (three earned) in 2.1 IP vs St Louis in his last start, Sept 30. He is 1-0, 3.00 in his last three home starts. Eight of ten series games have gone over total. Lohse won Wild Card game Friday; he is 3-0, 3.28 in his last four starts. He allowed 12 runs in 11.2 IP in two no-decisions vs Washington this season.

Cain is 3-1, 2.10 in his last five starts, but is 0-2, 6.17 against Reds this year, including Game 1 loss at home. Latos came in after Cueto got hurt and threw 57 pitches, allowing one run in four IP. He is 2-0, 1.13 in his last four outings. Giants are 13-7 in last 20 games, Reds 12-8; road team is 4-0 in this series, so huge pressure on Cincy not to gag after leading in series 2-0. Under is 10-3 in Cincinnati's last 13 home games, 7-4 in last eleven Giant road games. Winner moves on to NLCS.

Girardi pinch-hit for ARod in 9th inning last night, was rewarded with pair of HRs by Ibanez, so Bronx advances to ALCS with win here. Road team is 13-8 in Bronx-O's games this season; Orioles are 6-4 at this site. Saunders is 4-2, 2.80 in his last seven starts; he won only start vs Bronx, allowing two runs in 5.2 IP Sept 8. Hughes is 1-1, 7.16 in his last three starts, 2-2, 5.16 in his four starts vs Baltimore this season. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. O's are now 30-10 in one-run games, 16-3 in extra-inning games, but all three losses were to Bronx.

Detroit lost 13 of last 21 road games, but Verlander is 3-0, 0.90 vs Oakland in '12, 5-0, 1.03 in his last five starts overall. Parker is 4-1, 2.90 in his last six starts, 0-2, 3.75 vs Detroit this season. Oakland won eight in row and 10 of last 11 home games. Home side won all four series games; visitors are 9-3 in other playoff series. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Oakland games, 4-1-1 in last six Detroit games. A's were down 3-1 in 9th inning last night, scored three to stay alive; they have momentum, but Verlander is tough nut to crack.

MLB

Thursday, October 11

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Trend Report
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1:07 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CINCINNATI
San Francisco is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games on the road
San Francisco is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cincinnati's last 19 games
Cincinnati is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against San Francisco

4:07 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. WASHINGTON
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis

7:37 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NY YANKEES
Baltimore is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Yankees's last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore

9:37 PM
DETROIT vs. OAKLAND
Detroit is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
Oakland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games at home

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**Udog** · 10-11-2012, 09:37 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 11

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SAN FRANCISCO (96 - 70) at CINCINNATI (99 - 67) - 1:05 PM
MATT CAIN (R) vs. MAT LATOS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 38-20 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
CINCINNATI is 99-67 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CINCINNATI is 43-23 (+16.5 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
CINCINNATI is 99-67 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 40-22 (+14.4 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
LATOS is 23-10 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
LATOS is 23-10 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 96-70 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 482-473 (+47.9 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games in playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 36-30 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 96-70 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 48-35 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
LATOS is 18-28 (-13.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 6-5 (+1.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.8 Units)

MATT CAIN vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
CAIN is 4-6 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.66 and a WHIP of 1.317.
His team's record is 4-7 (-5.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-5. (+0.0 units)

MAT LATOS vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LATOS is 4-3 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 0.892.
His team's record is 5-6 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-5. (+0.3 units)

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ST LOUIS (91 - 75) at WASHINGTON (99 - 66) - 4:05 PM
KYLE LOHSE (R) vs. ROSS DETWILER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 91-75 (-2.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 28-36 (-15.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 91-75 (-2.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 48-37 (+8.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 99-66 (+21.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 35-20 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
WASHINGTON is 96-66 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
WASHINGTON is 70-46 (+16.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 51-37 (+14.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 19-9 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-5 (-0.2 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.8 Units)

KYLE LOHSE vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
LOHSE is 4-2 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 5.35 and a WHIP of 1.275.
His team's record is 8-4 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-7. (-2.9 units)

ROSS DETWILER vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
DETWILER is 0-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 11.59 and a WHIP of 3.863.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

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BALTIMORE (95 - 71) at NY YANKEES (97 - 68) - 7:35 PM
JOE SAUNDERS (L) vs. PHIL HUGHES (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 91-56 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
NY YANKEES are 72-41 (+18.1 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
HUGHES is 20-3 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
BALTIMORE is 87-61 (+36.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 63-56 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 67-52 (+25.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 40-30 (+18.0 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
BALTIMORE is 55-43 (+27.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BALTIMORE is 27-24 (+12.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
BALTIMORE is 95-71 (+37.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 47-36 (+27.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BALTIMORE is 44-31 (+21.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
NY YANKEES are 119-102 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 10-11 (+3.3 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
10 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-1.8 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

JOE SAUNDERS vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SAUNDERS is 3-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.48 and a WHIP of 1.602.
His team's record is 5-3 (+2.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.2 units)

PHIL HUGHES vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
HUGHES is 6-4 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 5.33 and a WHIP of 1.480.
His team's record is 8-6 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-3. (+6.0 units)

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DETROIT (90 - 76) at OAKLAND (96 - 70) - 9:35 PM
JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. JARROD PARKER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 20-27 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 90-76 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 9-18 (-14.8 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -150 this season.
DETROIT is 38-45 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 86-73 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 52-50 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
VERLANDER is 3-8 (-8.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 59-36 (+27.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
OAKLAND is 51-40 (+21.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OAKLAND is 29-21 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
OAKLAND is 96-70 (+37.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 51-30 (+21.6 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
OAKLAND is 90-67 (+32.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 66-42 (+32.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
OAKLAND is 64-41 (+32.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-5 (+0.0 Units) against OAKLAND this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.9 Units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. OAKLAND since 1997
VERLANDER is 9-5 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.54 and a WHIP of 1.138.
His team's record is 9-6 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-10. (-5.9 units)

JARROD PARKER vs. DETROIT since 1997
PARKER is 0-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

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**Udog** · 10-11-2012, 09:42 AM

MLB

Thursday, October 11

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NLDS betting previews: Giants at Reds, Cardinals at Nationals
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San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (-123, 7)

Series is tied 2-2

Riding a wave of momentum, the San Francisco Giants look to make history in the decisive Game 5 of the National League Division Series against the Cincinnati Reds. If the Giants can win their third straight game, they’ll be the first NL team to ever come back from an 0-2 deficit in the Division Series to win. NL teams are 0-21 since the Division Series was added in 1995, and overall 38 of the 42 teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in the Division Series have advanced. Despite the odds, the Giants have to feel good about their chances after tying the series Wednesday with an impressive 8-3 win. The Reds were forced to start Mike Leake in Game 4, but they’ll have 14-game winner Mat Latos pitching on four days' rest in Game 5.

After batting .126 as a team in the first three games of the series, the Giants’ offense came to life in Game 4 with 11 hits and three home runs. The top three hitters in the Giants lineup - Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro and Pablo Sandoval - combined to go 6-for-11 with three doubles, two home runs, and five RBIs after going 4-for-37 (.108) in the first three games. While the Reds have left 17 runners on base in their last two games, Giants manager Bruce Bochy has pushed all the right buttons and was able to rest relievers Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt on Wednesday. The Reds did not lose three consecutive home games at any point during the regular season, and the Giants have not swept a three-game series in Cincinnati since 1999.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, TBS\

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow SSW at 6 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Reds RH Mat Latos (0-0, 2.25 ERA) vs. Giants RH Matt Cain (0-1, 5.40)

Latos threw 57 pitches over four innings in relief in Game 1 and went 7-1 with a 2.46 ERA over his last 14 regular-season starts. Pablo Sandoval is 6-for-29 (.207) against Latos, who is 4-3 with a 2.19 ERA in 11 career starts against the Giants, including 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in two starts this season. Latos hasn’t recorded a loss in eight outings and has given up one run or less in his past four appearances.

Cain’s scoreless inning streak to begin his postseason career ended at 23 1/3 innings in Game 1, when he allowed three runs over five innings. Cain took two of his five losses this season against the Reds, allowing eight earned runs in 13 innings, including four home runs. Ryan Ludwick is 8-for-22 (.364) with three home runs against Cain, who gave up homers to Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce in the series opener.

TRENDS:

* Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Cincinnati.
* Giants are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Cincinnati.
* Giants are 2-7 in Cains last nine starts vs. Reds.

UMP TRENDS - Tom Hallion:

* Road team is 6-1 in Hallions last seven games behind home plate.
* Over is 4-1 in Hallions last five Thursday games behind home plate.
* Giants are 4-1 in Cains last five starts with Hallion behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Reds starter Johnny Cueto was placed on the disabled list with an oblique strain on Wednesday, and he won’t be eligible to return unless the Reds reach the World Series.

2. The Giants are seeking to become the first major league team to overcome an 0-2 deficit in a five-game postseason series by winning three consecutive games on the road.

3. Beginning with Game 6 of the 2002 World Series, Reds manager Dusty Baker’s teams are 1-8 when playing with a chance to clinch a postseason series.

St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (+103, 8)

St. Louis leads series 2-1

The first playoff game in Washington in 79 years did not go exactly as planned. If the second one isn’t much better, then the city won’t get a third. The St. Louis Cardinals will be looking to close out the best-of-five series behind Kyle Lohse on Thursday. The Washington Nationals, who trail 2-1, will try to find some offense and even things up. The Nationals have stranded 30 runners in the series and were shut out in Game 3.

Washington’s offensive issues are most apparent in rookie Bryce Harper, who is 1-for-15 in the series, and Adam LaRoche (1-for-11), leaving Ryan Zimmerman on an island between them in the lineup. The Cardinals have been able to jump on Washington’s starters quickly in the last two games, exploding for four runs in the first two innings of each contest. That breathing room has given St. Louis manager Mike Matheny the luxury of setting up his bullpen and going to it at the first signs of struggle from his starter. Matheny also has a hot lineup, with Carlos Beltran and David Freese each batting over .400 in the series.

TV: 4:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: The forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the high 50s. Wind are expected to blow SW at 6 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Kyle Lohse (16-3, 2.86 ERA) vs. Nationals LH Ross Detwiler (10-8, 3.40)

Lohse is part of the reason St. Louis is in the NLDS after striking out six and yielding two runs in 5 2/3 innings to earn a win against the Atlanta Braves in the wild card game. The right-hander posted his two worst starts of September against Washington. Lohse was reached for a combined 12 runs (nine earned) on 17 hits in 11 2/3 innings but did not factor in the decision in either game. LaRoche, Danny Espinosa and Michael Morse each homered off Lohse while Harper went 3-for-6.

Detwiler will be making his first start since Sept. 30 and did not instill a lot of confidence in Nationals fans during his last two turns. The 26-year-old was knocked around for 12 runs (eight earned) in 7 1/3 innings in that span, issuing eight walks and three home runs. The ugliest one came against St. Louis, when Detwiler walked five in just 2 1/3 frames. Beltran reached him for a two-run homer in that game. Detwiler, who grew up a Cardinals fan in Missouri, has been at his best at Nationals Park, posting an 8-2 record with a 2.59 ERA.

TRENDS:

* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Washington.
* Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Lohses last five starts vs. Nationals.
* Cardinals are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Washington.

UMP TRENDS - Jim Joyce:

* Home team is 4-0 in Joyces last 4 games behind home plate.
* Over is 19-7 in Joyces last 26 games behind home plate.
* Nationals are 2-5 in their last 7 games with Joyce behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Washington has not dropped back-to-back games at home since falling to Philadelphia on July 31 and Aug. 1.

2. Cardinals LF Matt Holliday fouled a ball off his left leg in the eighth inning on Wednesday. He stayed in and delivered a two-run single but was lifted for a pinch runner after limping down the line.

3. Nationals SS Ian Desmond is having a strong series offensively, going 7-for-12, but went 0-for-6 against Lohse in the regular season.

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**Udog** · 10-11-2012, 09:44 AM

MLB

Thursday, October 11

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ALDS betting previews: Orioles at Yankees, Tigers at A's
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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-149)

New York leads series 2-1

The Baltimore Orioles were two outs away from taking a 2-1 lead in the American League Division Series. Now they're one loss away from having their magical season come to an end as they attempt to stave off elimination Thursday against the Yankees in New York. Behind a brilliant pitching performance by Miguel Gonzalez and solo home runs from fellow rookies Ryan Flaherty and Manny Machado, Baltimore held a 2-1 advantage Wednesday until Raul Ibanez hit a one-out homer in the ninth inning while pinch-hitting for the struggling Alex Rodriguez.

The game-tying blast came off Orioles closer Jim Johnson, who entered the series opener with the score tied and proceeded to yield five runs while recording just one out. Ibanez provided more heroics in the 12th inning on Wednesday, crushing Brian Matusz's first pitch of the frame for his second blast of the night and a 2-1 series lead. The Orioles fell to 16-3 in extra-inning games this year, with all three losses coming against the Yankees. The first two setbacks occurred on April 10-11. Baltimore also dropped to 76-1 when leading after seven innings.

New York has won two of the last three games in which it has trailed after eight innings. Prior to Oct. 2 against Boston, it was 0-58 in such contests this year. Rodriguez is 1-for-12 with seven strikeouts thus far in the series. Derek Jeter, who left Wednesday's game after eight innings with a foot injury, hit his fifth career playoff triple in the third frame to tie George Brett and Rafael Furcal for the most all time.

TV: 7:37 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds are expected to blow WSW at 7 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles LH Joe Saunders (1-0, 1.59 ERA) (3-3, 3.63) vs. Yankees RH Phil Hughes (16-13, 4.23 ERA)

Saunders is coming off a solid effort in the wild-card game against Texas on Friday, when he allowed one run and six hits over 5 2/3 innings. The 31-year-old improved to 3-1 lifetime versus the Yankees on Sept. 8 as he yielded two runs and five hits in 5 1/3 frames. Saunders faced New York twice in the 2009 AL Championship Series while with the Los Angeles Angels, coming away with a no-decision in Game Two despite allowing two runs in seven innings before surrendering three runs in only 3 1/3 frames and suffering the loss in the series-ending Game Six.

Hughes has struggled over his last three starts, allowing a total of 13 runs in 16 1/3 innings while going 1-1. The 26-year-old lasted only 4 2/3 frames at Toronto on Sept. 30, escaping with a no-decision despite surrendering five runs and eight hits. Hughes went 2-2 with a 4.76 ERA in four starts against the Orioles this season and is 6-4 with a 5.10 ERA in 17 career meetings, including three relief appearances.

TRENDS:

* Over is 8-2-1 in Hughes' last 11 starts vs. Orioles.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Yankees are 6-2 in Hughes' last eight starts vs. Orioles.
* Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in New York.
* Orioles are 29-60 in the last 89 meetings in New York.
* Orioles are 25-57 in the last 82 meetings.

UMP TRENDS - Fieldin Culbreth:

* Over is 8-1 in Culbreths last 9 games behind home plate vs. New York.
* Home team is 4-1 in Culbreths last 5 games behind home plate.
* Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games with Culbreth behind home plate.
* Under is 20-7 in Culbreths last 27 games behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Hughes had most of his success during the regular season at home, where he went 11-4 with a 3.74 ERA in 16 starts.

2. Ibanez is the first player to hit two home runs in a postseason game in which he did not start.

3. The Orioles have allowed 12 runs thus far in the series. Johnson has surrendered six of them.

Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics (+131)

Series is tied 2-2

The Oakland Athletics made a habit of dramatic wins during the regular season and have carried that over into the playoffs. After leading the majors with 14 walk-off wins during the regular season, the Athletics had their first of the playoffs in Game 4 on Wednesday, staving off elimination and forcing a decisive Game 5. Their reward is another date with Justin Verlander, who will start for the Detroit Tigers opposite Jarrod Parker.

The Tigers were counting the days until the start of the American League Championship Series with a 3-1 lead in the ninth inning on Wednesday but Seth Smith clubbed a two-run double to tie it and Coco Crisp won it with a single to right two batters later. Oakland was miffed about the postseason format after dropping the first two on the road but have no complaints anymore with a chance to advance in their own ballpark on Thursday night. Detroit has not lost three in a row since a four-game slide from Sep. 7-10.

TV: 9:37 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds are expected blow WSW at 7 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Justin Verlander (1-0, 1.29 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Jarrod Parker (0-1, 2.84)

Verlander dominated in Game 1, allowing one run on three hits while striking out 11 and walking four. The reigning Cy Young and MVP has allowed two earned runs or less in his last five starts dating back to the regular season and has gone 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA in three starts against Oakland this season. Verlander has made nine starts in his career at O.co Coliseum, going 4-4 with a 2.47 ERA.

Parker could not quite match up with Verlander in Game 1, allowing three runs (two earned) and seven hits in 6 1/3 innings. The rookie right-hander’s own error allowed the go-ahead run to score in the third and Alex Avila reached him for a solo home run in the fifth. Parker still managed to post his seventh straight quality start. Like most Athletics pitchers, Parker has been better at home, going 6-5 with a 2.61 ERA in 15 starts at the Coliseum.

TRENDS:

* Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Oakland.
* Tigers are 4-0 in Verlanders last four starts vs. Athletics.
* Under is 5-1 in Verlanders last six road starts vs. Athletics.
* Under is 8-2 in Verlanders last 10 starts vs. Athletics.
* Tigers are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Oakland.

UMP TRENDS - Wally Bell:

* Under is 5-1 in Bells last six games behind home plate.
* Road team is 6-1 in Bells last seven games behind home plate.
* Tigers are 11-23 in their last 34 games with Bell behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Detroit Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera is 5-for-16 (.312) in the series but has yet to home or drive in a run.

2. Oakland RF Josh Reddick kicked off the rally in the ninth with a single to improve to 2-for-14 with eight strikeouts in the series.

3. Tigers slugger Prince Fielder broke out of a slump with a home run in a 2-for-4 performance. He had been 1-for-12 in the first four games

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**Udog** · 10-11-2012, 11:26 AM

MLB
Short Sheet

Thursday, October 11

National League

NL Division Series, Game Five (Series Tied, 2-2)
San Francisco at Cincinnati, 1:05 ET TBS
Cain: San Francisco 31-14 Over away with a line of +125 to -125
Latos: Cincinnati 18-4 SU revenging a loss as a home favorite

NL Division Series, Game Four (St. Louis Leads, 2-1)
St Louis at Washington, 4:05 ET TBS
Lohse: St. Louis 16-5 SU away after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Detwiler: Washington 31-16 Over off BB Overs

American League

AL Division Series, Game Four (New York Leads, 2-1)
Baltimore at NY Yankees, 7:35 ET TBS
Saunders: Baltimore 23-8 Under after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less
Hughes: 20-3 TSR at home in night games

AL Division Series, Game Five (Series Tied, 2-2)
Detroit at Oakland, 9:35 ET TNT
Verlander: 3-8 TSR away in night games
Parker: Oakland 10-2 SU off BB wins by 2 runs or less

Announcement

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 10/11 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 10/11 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

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