NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thursday, October 11 - Monday, October 15)

[Udog]

NFL

Week 6

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Sunday Night Football: Packers at Texans
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Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans (-3.5, 47.5)

Even while maintaining their spotless record to open the season, the Houston Texans suffered a significant loss Monday night. They'll look to keep rolling without one of their top defenders as they welcome the high-octane Green Bay Packers to town Sunday evening. Houston will be without the services of Brian Cushing for the remainder of the season after the All-Pro linebacker suffered a torn knee ligament in Monday's narrow victory over the New York Jets.

Cushing's absence will provide the Texans with their stiffest test of the season, as they face a Packers team off to a miserable start but still capable of burning opposing defenses. Green Bay squandered an 18-point lead over the weekend, dropping a 30-27 decision to the host Indianapolis Colts. Aaron Rodgers appears to be rounding into form - having thrown seven touchdowns over his last two games - but the running game is now in limbo following a serious foot injury to primary back Cedric Benson.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Texans -3.5, O/U 47.5.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-3): Benson was placed on IR but given the "designated to return" tag, meaning he is eligible to come back in Week 14. Head coach Mike McCarthy believes Benson will return at some point during the season, but in the meantime the Packers will go with the "hot hand." Alex Green is expected to get the bulk of the carries against the Texans, with James Starks also seeing action. Wide receiver Greg Jennings did not practice Wednesday and is expected to miss this week's game with a groin ailment.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (5-0): Cushing doesn't believe his season-ending injury has derailed the Texans' title aspirations. "WE are STILL winning THIS year's Super Bowl," he posted on his Facebook page. Nevertheless, his absence will put more pressure on a defense led by standout defensive lineman J.J. Watt, who leads the NFL with a whopping 8.5 sacks through the first five games of the season. He has a favorable matchup this week against a Packers offensive line that has surrendered 21 sacks so far, second-most in the NFL.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.
* Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Packers’ last seven games following a loss.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Texans have been far more effective at protecting the quarterback than Green Bay, allowing a league-low three sacks to date.

2. Houston WR Andre Johnson caught eight passes for 119 yards and a score in Week 1, but has just nine total receptions in four games since.

3. Packers TE Jermichael Finley (shoulder) isn't expected to practice until at least Friday - if at all - and will likely be a game-time decision.


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[Udog]

NFL betting weather report: Wet and windy Week 6

Find out if weather will impact your wagers in Week 6 of the NFL season:

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 44.5)

The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium is calling for temperatures in the high 60s and winds blowing SSW – from sideline to sideline – at 13 mph.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+1, 42.5)

It will be a windy Battle of Ohio at Cleveland Browns Stadium, with winds expected to reach speeds of 20 mph, blowing SSW from corner to corner. Temperatures will climb into the low 70s later in the game with a 59 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon.

St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins (-4.5, 37.5)

There is a 40 percent chance of rain, turning into thunderstorms later in the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s and winds are expected to blow ENE at 14 mph.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-3.5, 44)

Winds will blow SW, across the field at MetLife Stadium, at speeds of 13 mph. Temperatures will be in the mid 60s with a 24 percent chance of showers.

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5, 44)

Rain is in the forecast for Seattle – surprise – with a 96 percent chance of showers and game-time temperatures in the mid 60s in CenturyLink Field.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45.5)

The winds in the Bay Area are expected to blow west, from sideline to sideline, at speeds of 13 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 60s.

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (Pick)

Winds are expected to blow SSW at 13 mph before settling down later in the evening. Temperatures will be in the high 60s.

[Udog]

NFL

Week 6

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Tale of the tape: Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
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The AFC West steps into the primetime spotlight for Monday Night Football in Week 6. Here’s the tale of the tape for Monday’s divisional tilt between the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers:

Offense

The Broncos offense has spiked with Peyton Manning under center. Denver is posting 287.2 passing yards per game – fifth in the NFL – and is averaging 27 points a contest. Receiver Demaryius Thomas is emerging as a deep threat while TE Joel Dreessen is a prime red-zone target, catching three TD passes in the past three games. The Broncos’ rushing attack is 17th in the league, rumbling for 101.2 yards per outing on the shoulders of veteran RB Willis McGahee. However, while McGahee has shown he still has plenty of tread on the tires – with two 100-plus yard games – his fourth-quarter fumble inside the red zone sunk Denver’s chances of a comeback versus New England last weekend.

The Bolts' scoring attack has regrouped since being limited to just three points in a loss to the Falcons in Week 3. San Diego QB Philip Rivers passed for a season-high 354 yards in a loss to New Orleans last week but has had trouble with turnovers in recent games. Rivers has thrown five INTs in his last four contests. Running back Ryan Mathews is beginning to get healthy after missing the start of the schedule with a collarbone injury. He rushed for 80 yards and a score in the loss to the Saints and averaged 6.7 yards per carry in that contest. Mathews is expected to start after coming off the bench the last two games.

Edge: Denver


Defense

The Broncos were bowled over by the Patriots in their loss last weekend, allowing Tom Brady and New England to pick up a team-record 35 first downs. The defense did tighten up in the second half, especially with the pass rush. Linebacker Von Miller led a disruptive front seven that sacked Brady four times. The Broncos had trouble slowing down New England’s ground game and have watched opposing rushers run for 120.2 yards a game this season. That’s allowed opponents to control the clock and keep Manning off the field. Denver ranks just 24th in time of possession this season.

The Chargers' stop unit has been stout against the run, giving up just 74 yards an outing. Opponents are averaging 3.7 yards per carry versus San Diego but those numbers are a bit skewed thanks to a porous pass defense that is allowing foes to throw for 260 yards per game – 20th in the NFL. The Bolts do have some dangerous playmakers on defense though, and have picked off six passes this season. Antoine Cason and Eric Weddle each have two INTs. San Diego has also forced seven fumbles, recovering four of those loose balls.

Edge: San Diego


Special teams

Denver ranks near the bottom of the AFC in kick returns and averages just 7.4 yards per punt return. The Broncos have countered that with solid kick coverage, allowing an NFL-low 16.2 yards per kickoff and an AFC-best 5.6 yards per punt return. Kicker Matt Prater is 7 for 7 on FG attempts, delivering on two kicks from 50-plus yards this season.

The Chargers average 25.8 yards per kick return but just 5.8 yards per punt return – an AFC low. The Bolts have held opposing special teams to 24.4 yards per kick return and 10.9 yards per punt return – ninth in the NFL. Kicker Nate Kaeding is also a perfect 7 for 7, connecting on three FGs between 40-49 yards. He has yet to attempt a FG of 50 or more yards.

Edge: Denver


Word on the street

"It's an area where we can be better in. We've got good pass rushers, we've got good cover people. We've just got to do that part a little better, eliminate some of the exposure we've had. That's an area where we feel we can significantly improve in, and right away." – Broncos defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio on stopping teams on third down.

“I anticipate our crowd to be loud. They will be a big part of how we play and they can really affect the game. When you are playing a team that is no huddle and you are asking your crowd to be loud, you have to make calls, too. We have to make our adjustments. I just want them to get that feeling of the no-huddle.” – Chargers coach Norv Turner on facing Denver’s no-huddle offense.


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[Udog]

NFL

Week 6

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Monday Night Football: Broncos at Chargers
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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+1, 48.5)

It is only Week 6 in the NFL, but Monday night's game between the Denver Broncos and host San Diego Chargers should go a long way in determining the AFC West winner.

With Oakland and Kansas City not expected to contend for the division title, San Diego has the opportunity to take a two-game lead on Denver, the defending AFC West champion and only other legitimate threat. The Chargers are 9-3 against the Broncos since quarterback Philip Rivers took the reins in 2007, while Denver quarterback Peyton Manning is 4-5 all-time against San Diego and has lost five of the last six meetings.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 70s. Winds are expected to blow west at 3 mph.

LINE: Oddsmakers opened the Chargers as 1-point home favorites but money flipped the spread, setting the Bolts as slight home dogs. The total has been bet down from 50 to 48.5 points.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent of Covers Consensus players are taking the Broncos. 64 percent is playing the over.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-3, 2-3 ATS): Denver couldn't handle Tom Brady and the Patriots' hurry-up offense and lost at New England 31-21 last week. The Patriots recorded a team-record 35 first downs and kept the Broncos' defense on the field for 35:49, a trend which must be reversed if Denver expects to win. Another issue is wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, who made nine receptions for a career-high 180 yards against the Patriots, but lost a fumble for the third straight week.

Manning faces San Diego for the first time in a Denver uniform. He has performed admirably as a Bronco - except for the first quarter in Atlanta when he threw three interceptions - while appearing 100 percent healthy following neck surgeries which forced him to miss the entire 2011 season. Denver will face the NFL's No. 5 rushing defense, and needs Willis McGahee to repeat his 117-yard rushing performance in last season's win.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (3-2, 3-2 ATS): San Diego led 24-14 last week before previously winless New Orleans scored the game's final 17 points to deny the Chargers a second consecutive 4-1 start. Rivers has been sacked 14 times, tied for sixth-most in the NFL, and faces two of the league's top pass rushers in Denver's Von Miller (five sacks) and Elvis Dumervil (three).

Running back Ryan Mathews is expected to regain his starting spot Monday despite not being on the field during the Chargers' final drive against the Saints. He had 80 yards rushing and 59 receiving against New Orleans. Mathews, who has shared time in the backfield with Jackie Battle and Ronnie Brown, must hang onto the ball: He has 10 fumbles (five lost) in 29 career games. The Broncos' minus-6 turnover differential could play right into the hands of an opportunistic Chargers' defense which has six interceptions and recovered four fumbles.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Broncos are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. McGahee is the only RB to rush for more than 100 yards against the Chargers in their last 12 games.

2. Mathews has rushed for more than 100 yards in his three games against Denver (127.3 average) with three touchdowns.

3. Denver snapped a four-game losing streak to San Diego with a 16-13 victory in overtime in the second meeting last season. This will be the fourth encounter on Monday Night Football since 2007 - the Chargers won the last meeting 35-10 in 2010.


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