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**Udog** · 10-09-2012, 08:13 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six interesting games on next weekend's football schedule.......

-- Oklahoma (-3) vs Texas-- Longhorns scored 45 last week, still lost.

-- Northwestern (-3.5) @ Minnesota-- Big Dozen darkhorses meet.

-- Florida (-7.5) @ Vanderbilt-- Huge trap/sandwich game for Gators.

-- South Carolina (+2.5) @ LSU-- How will Tigers bounce back?

-- Packers @ Texans (-5)-- Green Bay is 2-4 if they lose here.

-- Broncos @ Chargers (-2.5)-- Big game for leaders in AFC West.

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but............

13) Spent some time today in an eye doctor's office, as my dad had surgery for cataracts; what a business they have. Thanks to Dr Duffy in Latham for helping my dad out. Glad you studied more than I did in school!!!

12) John Daly and Las Vegas is always an interesting combination; he shot 63 Friday, was contending, then all hell broke loose Saturday, when he shot an astonishingly-bad 86. How does a professional golfer shoot 14-over par for 18 holes, the day after he shoots a 63?

11) NFL Films needs to mike Sean Payton for an afternoon while he is watching the Saints at home in his living room. A unique opportunity.

10) Nick Markakis had pins taken out of his broken thumb and could be ready to play in two weeks, if the Orioles last that long.

9) Houston Texans' coach Gary Kubiak totally coached not to lose against the Jets Monday night and it worked, but if Texans are going to beat good teams down the road, he's going to have to get more daring, especially with all the offensive weapons his team has.

Late Update: Brian Cushing tore his ACL, huge blow to Texan defense.

8) Saw some video on Manute Bol's son, a 6-5 7th grader, playing AAU ball in Indianapolis. Just like his dad, he shoots from too far outside!!!

7) I'm happy to report the NBA package on DirecTV is still $180 for the season, same as it was the last two years. Of course last year, $180 was a ripoff, since the season was shortened to 66 games.

6) In Wisconsin, a company sells condoms with Wisconsin Badger mascot Bucky Badger on them; on the box it says, "Get Lucky with Bucky".

5) I'm a big CSI fan, but only watch them on latenight reruns; have to admit, I like Ted Danson as boss. Never got used to Lawrence Fishburne in that role-- Gil Grissom was a tough character to replace. Always better to replace the man who replaced the man.

4) Last two years, Michael Vick has nine red zone turnovers; no one else has more than five.

3) Would love to know the whole story as to why NC State fired Russell Wilson before his senior year, allowing him to transfer without sitting out a year. Coach O'Brien's team upset Florida State Saturday, but there have to be people in Raleigh who aren't really happy about what happened.

I mean, how do you recruit when an NFL QB transferred out of NC State, seemingly with the coach's blessing?

2) Oregon State QB Mannion (knee) is out this week, so the unbeaten Beavers will play at BYU with a backup; Cougars have already won a game 6-3, lost a game 7-6, so another pitcher's duel wouldn't be surprising.

1) How different would pro sports be if every player was working under a one-year contract?

**Udog** · 10-09-2012, 08:14 AM

NFL odds: Week 6 opening line report

Betting the Green Bay Packers as underdogs in recent seasons has been about as rare as Dracula’s steak. However, NFL bettors get that chance when the Packers limp into the Lone Star State to take on the Houston Texans in Week 6.

The early odds for Sunday night’s showdown have the Cheeseheads set as high as 5.5-point pups, facing a Texans team that is undefeated heading into Monday night’s matchup with the New York Jets.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, says depending on Houston’s performance at MetLife Stadium, this spread could go as high as -6 by Monday night.

“This was one of the toughest lines to make in a long time,” Korner, who sent out a suggested spread of Houston -4, told Covers. “Our guys had it as high as -7 and as low as -3.5. Houston has the short week and we’ll see what happens Monday. But this is a must-win for Green Bay.”

The Packers are reeling from a 30-27 upset loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5, failing to cover as 6.5-point favorites and dropping to 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS on the season.

Green Bay was an underdog only once last season, set at +6.5 versus the Detroit Lions in the final game of the season – a throw-away game for the Packers, who still won 45-41. During the 2010 regular season, Green Bay was a 14-point pup at New England with Aaron Rodgers sidelined in Week 15, a 2.5-point underdog at Atlanta in Week 12, and got 6.5 points from books visiting the Jets in Week 8.

The Packers were tagged as 1-point underdogs in their first two playoff games that year, winning and covering in both en route to a Super Bowl title. Green Bay is a profitable 5-1 ATS in its last six games as the betting underdog.

Here are the opening odds for some of the biggest games on the Week 6 schedule:

Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5, 48.5)

The undefeated Falcons opened as low as 8.5-point home favorites versus the rested Raiders and have since been bet up a point.

Korner was shocked to see so many online markets open the spread that low and suggests his clients keep this number as high as they can.

“I think that line is absurd,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested spread of Atlanta -10.5. “We set it high and will be unyielding in our advice to keep this spread high. We expect money on the favorite to be around 10-1 or 15-1.”

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6, 45.5)

These teams know each other well after two run-ins last season, including a thrilling 20-17 overtime victory for the Giants in the NFC Championship Game.

There is a measure of revenge involved, as far as 49ers backers are concerned, but oddsmakers put more weight into the teams’ current forms when making the odds. The Niners, coming off a dominant win against the Buffalo Bills, are 6-point home chalk in this heated rematch.

Korner says Nevada books will likely have this game a little higher, especially in the northern part of the state, thanks to the proximity of California and the Bay Area. The Sports Club sent out a suggested line of San Francisco -7 with the total posted two points higher at 47.

“We recommend our clients going a little higher with this spread,” says Korner. “They’re going to be blitzed by San Francisco money on the (parlay cards).”

The Niners won 27-20 as 4-point home favorites versus the Giants in Week 10 last season, then fell in overtime as 2-point home faves in the NFC Championship.

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 43.5)

The Ravens escaped Arrowhead Stadium with a weird 9-6 win over the Chiefs in Week 5, settling for three field goals from kicker Justin Tucker.

Baltimore’s new-look offense has been impressive up to that point and oddsmakers aren’t putting too much weight into the dud in Kansas City when setting the spread for Sunday’s home date versus Dallas.

“Sometimes you just need to throw away a game and forget about it, says Korner. “That’s what we’re doing with Baltimore here.”

The Cowboys had a bye week to wash away the stink of their Monday night mess against Chicago. Dallas’ offense has been terrible – ranked 30th in points (16.2 per game) – and has pushed the opening total down from 44 to 43.5. However, the Cowboys have shown a tendency to tighten the screws during the week off and boast an NFL-best 16-7 SU and ATS mark coming off the bye since 1990.

“We don’t use those past results,” Korner says of Dallas' record off the bye week. “We let the bettors look at that and bet them all they want.”

**Udog** · 10-09-2012, 08:16 AM

MLB
Dunkel

San Francisco at Cincinnati
The Giants look to stay alive in the series and take advantage of a Cincinnati team that is 1-5 in Homer Bailey's last 6 home starts. San Francisco is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 9

Game 921-922: San Francisco at Cincinnati (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.813; Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.266
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125); Under

Game 923-924: Detroit at Oakland (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 15.907; Oakland (Anderson) 16.286
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-135); Over

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 9

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SAN FRANCISCO (94 - 70) at CINCINNATI (99 - 65) - 5:35 PM
RYAN VOGELSONG (R) vs. HOMER BAILEY (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 6-3 (+3.9 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

RYAN VOGELSONG vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
VOGELSONG is 1-3 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 5.84 and a WHIP of 1.703.
His team's record is 4-4 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-2. (+1.9 units)

HOMER BAILEY vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
BAILEY is 1-0 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 5.59 and a WHIP of 1.517.
His team's record is 3-2 (+3.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-1. (+3.0 units)

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DETROIT (90 - 74) at OAKLAND (94 - 70) - 9:05 PM
ANIBAL SANCHEZ (R) vs. BRETT ANDERSON (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-3 (+2.1 Units) against OAKLAND this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.1 Units)

ANIBAL SANCHEZ vs. OAKLAND since 1997
SANCHEZ is 0-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 7.94 and a WHIP of 1.411.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

BRETT ANDERSON vs. DETROIT since 1997
ANDERSON is 2-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.501.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 9

Vogelsong is 2-0, 1.59 in his last three starts; he allowed six runs in his 13 IP in two no-decisions vs Cincinnati this season. Bailey is 3-1, 1.85 in last five starts; he allowed three runs (two earned) in 6.1 IP against Giants April 26th. Reds are 12-6 in last 18 games, Giants are 11-7- Reds are 6-3 against SF this year after winning twice out west. Under is 9-2 in Cincinnati's last 11 home games, despite it being a hitter's park; six of last nine Giant road games also stayed under. Reds sweep series with win here.

Detroit is 6-3 vs Oakland this year, won 10 of last 12 games overall. A's got here because of solid defense/timely hitting, but haven't done much of either in first two series games, failing badly on defense in late innings of game Sunday. Anderson return from oblique injury to start here-- he hurt it in Detroit, as he allowed three runs in 2.2 IP while trying to fight thru it. Overall, Anderson is 4-2, 2.83 in six starts this year, after he returned from arm injury. Sanchez is 2-0, 0.59 in his last two starts, since A's got six runs off him in 5.2 IP in 12-4 win Sept 20. Detroit sweeps series with win here.

MLB

Tuesday, October 9

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Trend Report
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5:37 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CINCINNATI
San Francisco is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
San Francisco is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati's last 11 games at home
Cincinnati is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home

9:07 PM
DETROIT vs. OAKLAND
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Detroit

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MLB

Tuesday, October 9

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NLDS betting preview: Giants at Reds
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San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (-138, 8)

Cincinnati leads series 2-0

The Cincinnati Reds look for a three-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants when the National League Division Series heads to Great American Ball Park for Game 3.

The Giants have been outscored 14-2 in the first two games of the series, and they’re facing an uphill battle after leaving home without a victory. None of the other 21 teams that have started the NLDS down 0-2 have come back to win the series. The Reds were 50-31 during the regular season at home, where they didn’t lose three consecutive home games all year. With Johnny Cueto (back spasms) questionable for the rest of the series, the Reds will start Homer Bailey in Game 3.

San Francisco is in danger of an early postseason exit, and there’s plenty of blame to go around. The first two batters in the Giants lineup - Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro - are 1-for-17 in the series, and the heart of their order has done little aside from Buster Posey’s solo home run in Game 1. After starters Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner failed to work past the fifth inning in the first two games, the Giants are hoping for a solid outing in Game 3 from Ryan Vogelsong, who got the nod over Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito.

The Reds hit an NL-worst .230 as a team in September, but they scored nine runs in Game 2 and outhit the Giants 13-2. Brandon Phillips is 5-for-10 with a home run and four RBI for Cincinnati, which is seeking its first postseason sweep since beating the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first round in 1995.

TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 60s. Winds are expected to blow SSW at 7 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Reds RH Homer Bailey (13-10, 3.68 ERA) vs. Giants RH Ryan Vogelsong (14-9, 3.37)

Bailey is set to make his second career postseason pitching appearance and his first career playoff start. He’s 1-0 with a 5.59 ERA in five career starts against the Giants, including one outing this year when he gave up three runs (two earned) over 6 1/3 frames on April 26. Bailey finished the season on a strong note, allowing just 10 runs in his last seven starts covering 48 2/3 innings.

Vogelsong has gone 2-3 with a 5.08 ERA in 15 career appearances against Cincinnati, and he had a 4.15 ERA in two starts this season. After struggling for much of the second half, he finished the season with a 0.53 ERA over his final three starts. Phillips is 7-for-14 lifetime against Vogelsong, who allowed three runs or fewer in 24 of his 31 starts this season.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in Baileys last four starts vs. Giants.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Cincinnati.
* Giants are 1-4 in the last five meetings.
* Giants are 1-7 in the last eight meetings in Cincinnati.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Giants haven’t swept three games in Cincinnati since April 5-7, 1999, when the Reds played at Riverfront Stadium.

2. Reds 3B Scott Rolen is 1-for-7 in the first two games of the series and 28-for-136 (.206) in his career in the postseason.

3. San Francisco lost just one series on the road after the All-Star break, going 10-1-1.

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MLB

Tuesday, October 9

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ALDS betting preview: Tigers at Athletics
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Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics (-132, 7)

Detroit leads series 2-0

The Oakland Athletics trailed the Texas Rangers by 13 games on June 30 and still found a way to win the American League West, so they’re used to seemingly insurmountable challenges. Down 0-2 in the AL Division Series, the Athletics return home to face a Detroit Tigers squad that’s riding a wave of momentum after two close wins.

The Tigers are getting timely hitting, but they’re still waiting for Prince Fielder to heat up. The power-hitting first baseman is 1-for-8 with no RBI in the series, and he’s batting .183 over 17 career playoff games. Oakland is hoping right fielder Josh Reddick’s eighth-inning homer on Sunday is a sign of things to come. Reddick, who led the Athletics with 32 regular-season homers, opened the series with six straight strikeouts.

Detroit’s bullpen was a key part of Sunday’s 4-3 win, but Joaquin Benoit allowed his 15th home run in 73 innings this season. Reliever Al Alburquerque drew the ire of some Oakland players when he kissed the ball and looked at the Athletics dugout before getting the final out in the ninth. The Athletics have fanned 23 times in the first two games, and that number figures to climb dramatically if the series goes five games. Games 4 and 5 starters Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander each had more than 200 strikeouts this season, and Verlander fanned 11 in the series opener.

TV: 9:00 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: There is a 16 percent chance of rain for the Bay Area with temperatures dipping into the mid 50s. Winds are expected to blow west at 11 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Athletics LH Brett Anderson (4-2, 2.57 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (4-6, 3.74)

Anderson is set to make his first start since Sept. 19, when he left his start against Detroit in the third inning with a right oblique strain. He missed most of the season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he posted a WHIP of 1.03 in six starts down the stretch. In two home starts covering 13 innings, he allowed two earned runs while striking out 10. Anderson is 2-2 with a 3.66 ERA in four career starts against the Tigers.

Sanchez was a solid midseason addition, making 12 starts after being acquired from the Marlins in late July. He finished the season on a high note, allowing one run in his last two starts covering 15 1/3 innings. Sanchez struggled in his lone start against Oakland this season on Sept. 20, giving up six runs (five earned) over 5 2/3 frames. He’ll be pitching on eight days' rest on Tuesday, which could bode well for Sanchez. He’s posted a 3.07 ERA in 23 career starts on six or more days of rest.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings in Oakland.

UMP TRENDS - Dana DeMuth:

* Under is 5-1 in DeMuths last six Tuesday games behind home plate vs. Oakland.
* Home team is 5-1 in DeMuths last six games behind home plate vs. Detroit.
* Under is 3-1-1 in DeMuths last five Tuesday games behind home plate.
* Under is 7-3-2 in DeMuths last 12 games behind home plate.
* Athletics are 2-5 in their last seven games with DeMuth behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Athletics have lost each of their last six postseason games, all against Detroit. Oakland was swept by the Tigers in the 2006 ALCS.

2. 3B Miguel Cabrera has reached base safely in all 13 of his post-season games with the Tigers, trailing only Charlie Gehringer (16) and Hank Greenberg (18).

3. Oakland has started a series 0-2 eight times and never come back to win.

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**Udog** · 10-09-2012, 11:13 AM

MLB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, October 9

National League

NL Division Series, Game Three (Cincinnati Leads, 2-0)
San Francisco at Cincinnati, 5:35 ET TBS
Vogelsong: San Francisco 7-0 SU away revenging a loss as a home favorite
Bailey: Cincinnati 5-15 SU at home off 4+ games allowing 4 runs or less

American League

NL Division Series, Game Three (Detroit Leads, 2-0)
Detroit at Oakland, 9:05 ET TBS
Sanchez: 1-8 TSR after allowing 1 or 0 ER's last start
Anderson: Oakland 31-13 SU as a home favorite of -125 to -150

Announcement

Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/9 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/9 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

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