The Bum's Wild Card-NLDS-ALDS Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

2012 MLB Playoff Results

October 8, 2012

American League Divisional Series

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 New York Yankees (-170) at Baltimore 7-2 FAVORITE OVER
2 New York Yankees at Baltimore (+117) 3-2 UNDERDOG UNDER
3 Baltimore at New York Yankees Wed Oct. 10 - -
4* Baltimore at New York Yankees Thu Oct. 11 - -
5* Baltimore at New York Yankees Fri Oct. 12 - -

Detroit vs. Oakland
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Oakland at Detroit (-185) 4-1 FAVORITE UNDER
2 Oakland at Detroit (-155) 5-4 FAVORITE OVER
3 Detroit at Oakland Tue Oct. 9 - -
4* Detroit at Oakland Wed Oct. 10 - -
5* Detroit at Oakland Thu Oct. 11 - -

National League Divisional Series San Francisco vs. Cincinnati
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Cincinnati (+120) at San Francisco 5-2 UNDERDOG OVER
2 Cincinnati (+138) at San Francisco 9-0 UNDERDOG OVER
3 San Francisco at Cincinnati Tue Oct. 9 - -
4* San Francisco at Cincinnati Wed Oct. 10 - -
5* San Francisco at Cincinnati Thu Oct. 11 - -

Washington vs. St. Louis
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Washington (+105) at St. Louis 3-2 UNDERDOG UNDER
2 Washington at St. Louis (-105) 12-4 FAVORITE OVER
3 St. Louis at Washington Wed Oct. 10 - -
4 St. Louis at Washington Thu Oct. 11 - -
5* St. Louis at Washington Fri Oct. 12 - -

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Betting Notes

October 9, 2012

Entering Monday's action, it appears that home-field advantage doesn't count for much in the 2012 Major League Baseball playoffs. That's because six of the first eight postseason games were won by the road team, and that has been a boon for the book in MLB betting.

It started with Friday's one-game wild-card playoffs. Baltimore, in the postseason for the first time in 15 years, was a +195 dog at Texas (-225) and took barely 37 percent of the action in the 5-1 upset. The Rangers, who were World Series favorites at the book most of the season, took more than 75 percent of the run-line action (minus-1.5 at -120). Rangers star Josh Hamilton was a non-factor in the game by going 0-for-4 and it was a big win for the book on Hamilton under 2.5 combined hits, runs and RBIs.

Entering that game, the Orioles were 7/1 long shots to win the AL pennant and the book is exposed at that number. Texas was 9/4, tied with the Yankees as the favorites.

The National League wild-card playoff featured St. Louis at Atlanta, a game the Braves lost 6-3 possibly due to a completely blown infield-fly rule call as the Braves were attempting to rally in the eighth inning. It turned out to be the final game for retiring Braves third baseman Chipper Jones, a lock first-ballot Hall of Famer. Because Kris Medlen was on the mound and the Braves had won an MLB-record 23 straight of his starts, Atlanta was a -167 favorite and took more than 61 percent of the lean. At minus-1.5 runs (+125), the Braves took more than 67 percent of the betting. The over seven runs also was a win for the book with less than 40 percent of the action there.

One of the book's top player props wins of the week was on Chipper in that game. He was paired against the Cardinals' Matt Holliday for most combined hits, runs and RBIs. Holliday hit a solo homer off Medlen in the sixth inning to give St. Louis a 4-2 lead and finished with two hits, two runs and that lone RBI. Jones was 1-for-5 with no runs or RBIs, and he took the majority lean on this prop.

The only team to hold serve at home in the first two games of the Division Series was the Detroit Tigers against Oakland. And bettors' top game result of last week was the Tigers' 3-1 victory over the A's in Game 1 on Saturday. As usual when ace Justin Verlander is on the mound, the Tigers were big favorites, this time at -187. And Detroit took more than 70 percent of the action there. At minus-1.5 runs (+110), the Tigers took almost 77 percent. Bettors also hit on the under 7.5 runs with more than 57 percent of the lean. Verlander going over seven strikeouts (had 11) was one of bettors' top player prop wins of the week.

The Tigers' strong start has moved them to the AL pennant favorites at 6/5 and co-World Series favorites with Cincinnati at 11/4. Detroit entered the playoffs at 13/2 to win the Fall Classic and the book is exposed there. The National League team the book was most exposed on for the pennant entering the postseason was San Francisco at 13/4 (now 16/1).

The Giants' season could end as soon as Tuesday in Cincinnati, as could Oakland's as they host the Tigers trying to avoid elimination. There will be live play-by-play betting on both games, as there will on every postseason game. The Reds are -140 opening favorites as they start Homer Bailey, who had the final no-hitter in MLB this season, against Ryan Vogelsong. Oakland is a -135 favorite to extend its season behind Brett Anderson, who hasn't pitched since leaving a Sept. 19 loss to Detroit early with a strained oblique. He's opposed by Anibal Sanchez.

[StarDust Bum]

Tigers look to sweep away A's on Tuesday night

DETROIT TIGERS (90-74)

at OAKLAND A’S (94-70)


American League Division Series – Detroit leads series 2-0
First pitch: Tuesday, 9:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Oakland -130, Detroit +120, Total: 7

Detroit will look to advance to the ALCS with a sweep over Oakland on Tuesday night.

Southpaw Brett Anderson takes the mound for the A’s, looking for a strong finish to a season in which he dominated in his limited action. Missing much of the year with Tommy John Surgery—and not having pitched since Sept. 19 with an oblique injury—Anderson registered just six starts on the season, but compiled a 4-2 record, 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. At home, he had a 1.38 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in two starts, winning both of those outings. He faces Anibal Sanchez, amid a season in which he logged a 9-13 record, 3.86 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Sanchez’s lone career start against the A’s came in September when he gave up six runs (five earned) in 5.2 innings, a 12-4 Oakland victory at O.co Coliseum. That fits in line with the A’s dominance at home, where they compiled a 49-30 (.620) record this season, the third-best mark in the majors. Play on OAKLAND to survive another day in this series as they return to those friendly home confines.

These rare four-star FoxSheets trends also favor the A’s.

OAKLAND is 39-18 (68.4%, +27.6 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last 5 games this season. The average score was OAKLAND 5.2, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 4*).

OAKLAND is 57-28 (67.1%, +33.5 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season this season. The average score was OAKLAND 5.0, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 4*).

The Tigers are 6-3 so far this season against the A’s, but went 2-2 in Oakland. Sanchez enters this game amid a hot streak, finishing the regular season off with a 2.57 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 22 K’s in 21 IP over his final three starts, one of which as a nine-inning, three-hit shutout. He averages 6.3 innings per start, but Detroit might want him to pitch as deep into this game as possible. The Tigers own subpar bullpen numbers on the road with a 4.32 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, compiling a terrible 7-14 record away from home this season.

Anderson’s oblique injury came against the Tigers, a start in which he did not make it out of the third inning because of the ailment. Prior to that, however, he had pitched well against the Tigers, allowing just one run on seven hits in 11 innings in his previous two starts against them, a big step up from the nine runs (3 ER) in 3.1 IP he allowed the first time he faced Detroit in May of 2009. Although Anderson may not be able to pitch deep into this game coming off an injury and averaging just 5.8 innings per start this year, he is backed by one of baseball’s best bullpens. Oakland relievers have a 2.95 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, figures that drop to 2.68 and 1.12, respectively, at home. At O.co Coliseum, the bullpen has an incredible 20-3 record. Take them as slight home favorites.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

San Francisco at Cincinnati
The Giants look to stay alive in the series and take advantage of a Cincinnati team that is 1-5 in Homer Bailey's last 6 home starts. San Francisco is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 9

Game 921-922: San Francisco at Cincinnati (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.813; Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.266
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125); Under

Game 923-924: Detroit at Oakland (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 15.907; Oakland (Anderson) 16.286
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-135); Over




MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 9

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SAN FRANCISCO (94 - 70) at CINCINNATI (99 - 65) - 5:35 PM
RYAN VOGELSONG (R) vs. HOMER BAILEY (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 6-3 (+3.9 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

RYAN VOGELSONG vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
VOGELSONG is 1-3 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 5.84 and a WHIP of 1.703.
His team's record is 4-4 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-2. (+1.9 units)

HOMER BAILEY vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
BAILEY is 1-0 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 5.59 and a WHIP of 1.517.
His team's record is 3-2 (+3.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-1. (+3.0 units)

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DETROIT (90 - 74) at OAKLAND (94 - 70) - 9:05 PM
ANIBAL SANCHEZ (R) vs. BRETT ANDERSON (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-3 (+2.1 Units) against OAKLAND this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.1 Units)

ANIBAL SANCHEZ vs. OAKLAND since 1997
SANCHEZ is 0-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 7.94 and a WHIP of 1.411.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

BRETT ANDERSON vs. DETROIT since 1997
ANDERSON is 2-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.501.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 9

Vogelsong is 2-0, 1.59 in his last three starts; he allowed six runs in his 13 IP in two no-decisions vs Cincinnati this season. Bailey is 3-1, 1.85 in last five starts; he allowed three runs (two earned) in 6.1 IP against Giants April 26th. Reds are 12-6 in last 18 games, Giants are 11-7- Reds are 6-3 against SF this year after winning twice out west. Under is 9-2 in Cincinnati's last 11 home games, despite it being a hitter's park; six of last nine Giant road games also stayed under. Reds sweep series with win here.

Detroit is 6-3 vs Oakland this year, won 10 of last 12 games overall. A's got here because of solid defense/timely hitting, but haven't done much of either in first two series games, failing badly on defense in late innings of game Sunday. Anderson return from oblique injury to start here-- he hurt it in Detroit, as he allowed three runs in 2.2 IP while trying to fight thru it. Overall, Anderson is 4-2, 2.83 in six starts this year, after he returned from arm injury. Sanchez is 2-0, 0.59 in his last two starts, since A's got six runs off him in 5.2 IP in 12-4 win Sept 20. Detroit sweeps series with win here.




MLB

Tuesday, October 9

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Trend Report
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5:37 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CINCINNATI
San Francisco is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
San Francisco is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati's last 11 games at home
Cincinnati is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home

9:07 PM
DETROIT vs. OAKLAND
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Detroit


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MLB

Tuesday, October 9

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NLDS betting preview: Giants at Reds
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San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (-138, 8)

Cincinnati leads series 2-0

The Cincinnati Reds look for a three-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants when the National League Division Series heads to Great American Ball Park for Game 3.

The Giants have been outscored 14-2 in the first two games of the series, and they’re facing an uphill battle after leaving home without a victory. None of the other 21 teams that have started the NLDS down 0-2 have come back to win the series. The Reds were 50-31 during the regular season at home, where they didn’t lose three consecutive home games all year. With Johnny Cueto (back spasms) questionable for the rest of the series, the Reds will start Homer Bailey in Game 3.

San Francisco is in danger of an early postseason exit, and there’s plenty of blame to go around. The first two batters in the Giants lineup - Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro - are 1-for-17 in the series, and the heart of their order has done little aside from Buster Posey’s solo home run in Game 1. After starters Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner failed to work past the fifth inning in the first two games, the Giants are hoping for a solid outing in Game 3 from Ryan Vogelsong, who got the nod over Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito.

The Reds hit an NL-worst .230 as a team in September, but they scored nine runs in Game 2 and outhit the Giants 13-2. Brandon Phillips is 5-for-10 with a home run and four RBI for Cincinnati, which is seeking its first postseason sweep since beating the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first round in 1995.

TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 60s. Winds are expected to blow SSW at 7 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Reds RH Homer Bailey (13-10, 3.68 ERA) vs. Giants RH Ryan Vogelsong (14-9, 3.37)

Bailey is set to make his second career postseason pitching appearance and his first career playoff start. He’s 1-0 with a 5.59 ERA in five career starts against the Giants, including one outing this year when he gave up three runs (two earned) over 6 1/3 frames on April 26. Bailey finished the season on a strong note, allowing just 10 runs in his last seven starts covering 48 2/3 innings.

Vogelsong has gone 2-3 with a 5.08 ERA in 15 career appearances against Cincinnati, and he had a 4.15 ERA in two starts this season. After struggling for much of the second half, he finished the season with a 0.53 ERA over his final three starts. Phillips is 7-for-14 lifetime against Vogelsong, who allowed three runs or fewer in 24 of his 31 starts this season.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in Baileys last four starts vs. Giants.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Cincinnati.
* Giants are 1-4 in the last five meetings.
* Giants are 1-7 in the last eight meetings in Cincinnati.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Giants haven’t swept three games in Cincinnati since April 5-7, 1999, when the Reds played at Riverfront Stadium.

2. Reds 3B Scott Rolen is 1-for-7 in the first two games of the series and 28-for-136 (.206) in his career in the postseason.

3. San Francisco lost just one series on the road after the All-Star break, going 10-1-1.


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MLB

Tuesday, October 9

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ALDS betting preview: Tigers at Athletics
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Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics (-132, 7)

Detroit leads series 2-0

The Oakland Athletics trailed the Texas Rangers by 13 games on June 30 and still found a way to win the American League West, so they’re used to seemingly insurmountable challenges. Down 0-2 in the AL Division Series, the Athletics return home to face a Detroit Tigers squad that’s riding a wave of momentum after two close wins.

The Tigers are getting timely hitting, but they’re still waiting for Prince Fielder to heat up. The power-hitting first baseman is 1-for-8 with no RBI in the series, and he’s batting .183 over 17 career playoff games. Oakland is hoping right fielder Josh Reddick’s eighth-inning homer on Sunday is a sign of things to come. Reddick, who led the Athletics with 32 regular-season homers, opened the series with six straight strikeouts.

Detroit’s bullpen was a key part of Sunday’s 4-3 win, but Joaquin Benoit allowed his 15th home run in 73 innings this season. Reliever Al Alburquerque drew the ire of some Oakland players when he kissed the ball and looked at the Athletics dugout before getting the final out in the ninth. The Athletics have fanned 23 times in the first two games, and that number figures to climb dramatically if the series goes five games. Games 4 and 5 starters Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander each had more than 200 strikeouts this season, and Verlander fanned 11 in the series opener.

TV: 9:00 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: There is a 16 percent chance of rain for the Bay Area with temperatures dipping into the mid 50s. Winds are expected to blow west at 11 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Athletics LH Brett Anderson (4-2, 2.57 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (4-6, 3.74)

Anderson is set to make his first start since Sept. 19, when he left his start against Detroit in the third inning with a right oblique strain. He missed most of the season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he posted a WHIP of 1.03 in six starts down the stretch. In two home starts covering 13 innings, he allowed two earned runs while striking out 10. Anderson is 2-2 with a 3.66 ERA in four career starts against the Tigers.

Sanchez was a solid midseason addition, making 12 starts after being acquired from the Marlins in late July. He finished the season on a high note, allowing one run in his last two starts covering 15 1/3 innings. Sanchez struggled in his lone start against Oakland this season on Sept. 20, giving up six runs (five earned) over 5 2/3 frames. He’ll be pitching on eight days' rest on Tuesday, which could bode well for Sanchez. He’s posted a 3.07 ERA in 23 career starts on six or more days of rest.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings in Oakland.

UMP TRENDS - Dana DeMuth:

* Under is 5-1 in DeMuths last six Tuesday games behind home plate vs. Oakland.
* Home team is 5-1 in DeMuths last six games behind home plate vs. Detroit.
* Under is 3-1-1 in DeMuths last five Tuesday games behind home plate.
* Under is 7-3-2 in DeMuths last 12 games behind home plate.
* Athletics are 2-5 in their last seven games with DeMuth behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Athletics have lost each of their last six postseason games, all against Detroit. Oakland was swept by the Tigers in the 2006 ALCS.

2. 3B Miguel Cabrera has reached base safely in all 13 of his post-season games with the Tigers, trailing only Charlie Gehringer (16) and Hank Greenberg (18).

3. Oakland has started a series 0-2 eight times and never come back to win.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, October 9

National League

NL Division Series, Game Three (Cincinnati Leads, 2-0)
San Francisco at Cincinnati, 5:35 ET TBS
Vogelsong: San Francisco 7-0 SU away revenging a loss as a home favorite
Bailey: Cincinnati 5-15 SU at home off 4+ games allowing 4 runs or less


American League

NL Division Series, Game Three (Detroit Leads, 2-0)
Detroit at Oakland, 9:05 ET TBS
Sanchez: 1-8 TSR after allowing 1 or 0 ER's last start
Anderson: Oakland 31-13 SU as a home favorite of -125 to -150

[StarDust Bum]

Couldn't post first game but this is what i went with.

Tuesday, October 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Francisco - 5:30 PM ET Cincinnati -138 500
Cincinnati - Over 8 500

Detroit - 9:00 PM ET Oakland -128 500
Oakland - Under 7 500

[Letswinalot]

GL man. I bet to win 50 on the Reds. It's a little stressful, 500 would be terrifying.

[StarDust Bum]

Your too funny WINS......

[StarDust Bum]

ALDS betting preview: Orioles at Yankees

Series tied 1-1

After earning a split of the first two games in Baltimore, the New York Yankees attempt to cash in on their home-field advantage when they host Game Three of their American League Division Series against the Orioles on Wednesday.

New York broke open a tight series opener in the ninth inning Sunday but dropped a 3-2 nail-biter at Camden Yards on Monday as Baltimore closer Jim Johnson bounced back from a disastrous outing to set down the Yankees in order and notch his first career postseason save.

Game 2 followed the same pattern as the opener, with New York scoring a run in the first inning and Baltimore plating two in the third. The difference may have been the fourth inning as the Orioles allowed the tying run to score on Monday but escaped a bases-loaded, one-out jam Tuesday to preserve their lead. Wei-Yin Chen notched the win in his postseason debut while 40-year-old Andy Pettitte took the loss, failing to add to his all-time playoff victory total of 19.

The Orioles improved to 76-0 when leading after seven innings and 30-9 in one-run games this year. They posted a 6-3 record at Yankee Stadium during the regular season.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: The forecast in the Bronx is calling for a 20 percent chance of showers earlier in the evening, eventually clear off with temperatures falling into the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow WSW at 13 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Miguel Gonzalez (9-4, 3.25 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Hiroki Kuroda (16-11, 3.32)

Gonzalez won his final three starts of the regular season and allowed two runs or less in five of his last six outings. The 28-year-old Mexican was impressive on the road in his first major league campaign, going 6-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 11 games - including two relief appearances. Gonzalez was 2-0 against the Yankees, with both victories coming in New York. He yielded four runs while striking out eight over 6 2/3 innings July 30 and fanned nine in seven scoreless frames Aug. 31.

Kuroda also finished the regular season strong, winning four of his final five decisions. The 37-year-old native of Japan had the majority of his success this year at home, where he went 11-6 with a 2.72 ERA in 19 outings. Kuroda split his two starts against the Orioles, both of which were at Yankee Stadium. He allowed one run over seven innings in a win April 30 while yielding four runs over 8 1/3 frames in a loss to Gonzalez on Aug. 31.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in New York.
* Orioles are 29-59 in the last 88 meetings in New York.
* Orioles are 25-56 in the last 81 meetings.

UMP TRENDS - Brian Gorman:

* Over is 4-0-1 in Gormans last five Wednesday games behind home plate.
* Road team is 4-0 in Gormans last four Wednesday games behind home plate vs. New York.
* Over is 5-2 in Gormans last seven games behind home plate vs. New York.
* Orioles are 0-4 in their last four Wednesday games with Gorman behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Yankees LF Ichiro Suzuki went 1-for-5 on Monday to extend his hitting streak at Camden Yards to 21 games.

2. New York (245) and Baltimore (214) were the top two teams in the major leagues in home runs during the regular season, but have combined for one over the first two games of the series.

3. Yankees RF Nick Swisher has one hit in his last 33 postseason at-bats with runners in scoring position.

[StarDust Bum]

NLDS betting preview: Cardinals at Nationals

St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (-107, 7.5)

Series tied at 1-1

The Washington Nationals are about to host the city’s first playoff game since 1933 when they host the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday. Once that novelty wears off, they will get back to the business of trying to win a series.

The Nationals squandered a chance to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the best-of-five National League Division Series when Jordan Zimmermann struggled in Game 2. Now it is the Cardinals with some momentum and a red-hot Carlos Beltran.

Beltran homered twice in Game 2, boosting his career postseason slugging percentage to higher than .800 and setting the Cardinals on a familiar path. St. Louis dropped the opener of both the NLDS and the NL Championship Series last year before recovering to advance and eventually win the World Series. Washington is full of players making their first postseason appearance but one of the few veterans - Edwin Jackson - gets the start in Game 3.

Jackson was with the Cardinals last October and made four postseason starts. This time, he will be going up against a lineup that pounded out four home runs in Game 2 and led the majors in on-base percentage during the regular season. Allen Craig, Daniel Descalso and Jon Jay all had success in Game 2 and Matt Holliday has yet to break out.

TV: 1:07 p.m. ET, MLBN

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for partialy cloudly skies and temperatures in the mid 60s. Winds are expected to blow SW at 8 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Chris Carpenter (0-2, 3.71 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Edwin Jackson (10-11, 4.03)

Last year’s playoff hero, Carpenter missed the majority of the season after undergoing surgery and has made only three starts in 2012. The veteran right-hander, who accelerated his rehab in order to come back and help the team in the playoffs, did not allow more than three earned runs in any of those three turns and has recorded 12 strikeouts against three walks in 17 total innings. Carpenter is 9-2 with a 3.05 ERA in 15 career postseason starts and has been strong in the past against Washington, posting a 6-1 record with a 3.27 ERA in 12 turns.

Jackson struggled with his consistency down the stretch, allowing one run in three of his final seven starts and a total of 23 (21 earned) in the other four. That inconsistency was at its most apparent against St. Louis. The right-hander struck out eight and did not allow and earned run over eight innings in a win over the Cardinals on Aug. 30 but was pounded for nine runs (eight earned) in only 1 1/3 innings at St. Louis on Sept. 28. Jackson has been better at Nationals Park this season, going 6-6 with a 3.35 ERA in 15 starts.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Washington.
* Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in Carpenters last seven starts vs. Nationals.
* Cardinals are 1-8 in the last nine meetings in Washington.

UMP TRENDS - Joe West:

* Road team is 10-1 in Wests last 11 Wednesday games behind home plate.
* Road team is 4-1 in Wests last five games behind home plate.
* Over is 3-1-1 in Wests last five games behind home plate vs. Washington.
* Over is 19-7 in Wests last 26 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
* Home team is 15-7 in Wests last 22 games behind home plate vs. Washington.
* Nationals are 5-14 in their last 19 games with West behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Nationals rookie CF Bryce Harper is 1-for-10 with a double and six strikeouts through the first two games.

2. After failing to record an extra-base hit in Sunday’s opener, the teams combined for 11 in Game 2. St. Louis accounted for eight, including four homers and a triple.

3. Washington has committed four errors in the series while St. Louis has only been charged with one. Of course, the Cardinals’ error led to the deciding runs in the Nationals’ 3-2 victory in Game 1.

[StarDust Bum]

Top 5 MLB Trends



SF
CIN

Under is 5-0-1 in SF last 6 playoff road games.



BAL
NYY

Over is 6-0 in NYY last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.



BAL
NYY

Over is 5-0-1 in NYY last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.



BAL
NYY

NYY are 6-0 in Kurodas last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.



BAL
NYY

Under is 6-0 in Gonzalezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

[StarDust Bum]

2012 MLB Playoff Results

October 10, 2012

Overall Results:
-- Home teams are 5-6
-- Underdogs are 6-5
-- Favorttes that won are 4-1 on the Run-Line (-1.5)
-- The 'over/under' is 6-5

American League Divisional Series

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 New York Yankees (-170) at Baltimore 7-2 FAVORITE OVER (7.5)
2 New York Yankees at Baltimore (+117) 3-2 UNDERDOG UNDER (8)
3 Baltimore at New York Yankees Wed Oct. 10 - -
4* Baltimore at New York Yankees Thu Oct. 11 - -
5* Baltimore at New York Yankees Fri Oct. 12 - -

Detroit vs. Oakland
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Oakland at Detroit (-185) 4-1 FAVORITE UNDER (7.5)
2 Oakland at Detroit (-155) 5-4 FAVORITE OVER (7.5)
3 Detroit at Oakland (-135) 2-0 FAVORITE UNDER (7)
4 Detroit at Oakland Wed Oct. 10 - -
5* Detroit at Oakland Thu Oct. 11 - -

National League Divisional Series San Francisco vs. Cincinnati
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Cincinnati (+120) at San Francisco 5-2 UNDERDOG OVER (6.5)
2 Cincinnati (+140) at San Francisco 9-0 UNDERDOG OVER (7)
3 San Francisco (+130) at Cincinnati 2-1 UNDERDOG UNDER (7.5)
4 San Francisco at Cincinnati Wed Oct. 10 - -
5* San Francisco at Cincinnati Thu Oct. 11 - -

Washington vs. St. Louis
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Washington (+105) at St. Louis 3-2 UNDERDOG UNDER (7)
2 Washington at St. Louis (-105) 12-4 FAVORITE OVER (7.5)
3 St. Louis (+100) at Washington 8-0 UNDERDOG OVER (7.5)
4 St. Louis at Washington Thu Oct. 11 - -
5* St. Louis at Washington Fri Oct. 12 - -

[StarDust Bum]

Orioles-Yankees meet in Game 3 in the Bronx

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (95-70)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (96-68)


American League Division Series – Series tied 1-1
First pitch: Wednesday, 7:35 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -165, Baltimore +155, Total: 8½

The ALDS shifts to the Bronx for Wednesday's pivotal Game 3 between the Orioles and Yankees.

Game 3 will pit Baltimore right-hander Miguel Gonzalez against New York righty Hiroki Kuroda. These two faced each other on Aug. 31, a game the Orioles won 6-1 at Yankee Stadium, thanks to seven shutout innings from Gonzalez. That was one of six victories for Baltimore in the Bronx this season, taking all three series, two games to one. It was also one of nine Orioles victories in the past 11 games Gonzalez has started. Although Kuroda has been tough at home this year (11-6, 2.72 ERA), all the pressure is squarely on the Yankees here. And while many of the big New York hitters have been terribly unclutch in key spots in recent postseasons, the O's have thrived in pressure all season, going 30-9 in one-run games, and prevailing in 16 straight extra-inning affairs with their stellar bullpen. The pick here is heavy underdog BALTIMORE, which is 63-47 (.573) as an underdog of +100 or more this year, to win Game 3.

This four-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Orioles:

BALTIMORE is 25-11 (69.4%, +19.9 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.9, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 4*).

Gonzalez (9-4, 3.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) has had a brilliant rookie campaign, which has been even more impressive on the road. The 28-year-old is 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in nine away starts, beating New York twice in Yankee Stadium, racking up 17 strikeouts and just one walk in those 13.2 innings. He also finished 2012 on a high note, leading his team to four straight victories by going 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Gonzalez has pitched at least six innings in 10 of his past 11 starts, but if he gets into trouble in his first career postseason outing, Baltimore's bullpen is perfectly capable of bailing him out. Orioles relievers are 32-12 (.727) with a 3.02 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 56 saves (78% success rate) overall this season. These numbers are even more impressive on the road: 16-4 record, 2.53 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 31 saves in 38 chances (82%).

Unlike Gonzalez, Kuroda (9-4, 3.36 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) has struggled down the stretch, allowing 4+ runs in four of his past seven starts. He carries a 4.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in this span that started when he surrendered four runs in 8.1 innings in that 6-1 loss to Gonzalez and the Orioles to end August. However, Kuroda did shut down Baltimore in his only other outing against them on April 30, limiting the O's to just one run on four hits in seven strong innings. This will be Kuroda's first postseason appearance since the 2009 NLCS when he was blasted for six runs on six hits in just 1.1 innings in an 11-0 loss in Philadelphia. However, Kuroda pitched very well in his other two playoff starts, both in 2008, going 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has completed seven innings just once in his past six starts this year, which means the Yankees bullpen will likely be needed much more than they have so far this series (1.1 innings, all by David Robertson). New York's bullpen has been solid overall this season (24-17, 3.42 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 80% save conversion rate), but it hasn't been nearly as effective in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, going 10-7 with a 3.69 ERA.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 10

Jackson was with Cardinals LY; he was 1-1, 5.60 in four postseason starts in Cards' World Series run. He allowed one (unearned) run vs Cards Aug 30 in a 8-1 win, then gave up nine runs (eight earned) in 12-2 loss at St Louis Sept 28, which sums up his career. He has allowed 12 runs in 22 career postseason IP. Washington is 5-4 vs Cardinals this year, with home side 6-3 in those games; seven of the nine games went over total. Carpenter is 0-2, 3.71 in three starts this season, allowing only 19 baserunners in 17 IP. He is 9-2, 3.05 in his 15 career postseason starts.

Cueto is out until World Series, if Reds get that far; Leake takes his place here- he is 1-0, 3.32 in his last three starts, and beat Giants 5-1 with CG effort back on June 29. Zito is 5-0, 2.35 in his last five starts; he allowed one run in six IP in both his '12 starts vs Cincy, but didn't win either one. Zito is 4-3, 3.25 in his seven postseason starts. Reds/Giants are both 12-7 in their last 19 games; Reds are 6-4 against SF this year after winning twice out west. Under is 10-2 in Cincinnati's last 11 home games, seven of last ten Giant road games also stayed under. Ball doesn't carry as well in this park in cooler weather.

MGonzalez is 3-0, 2.10 in his last four starts, 2-0, 2.63 in two starts against Bronx this season, both in this park. Kuroda is 2-0, 2.92 in his last two starts, 1-1, 2.93 in two starts vs Baltimore this year. Road team is 13-7 in Bronx-O's games this season; Orioles are 6-3 at this site. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven series games. Keep in mind Baltimore is 30-9 in one-run games and has won sixteen extra-inning games in a row. They're a confident team. Pressure is on Bronx.

Detroit is 6-4 vs Oakland this year, won 10 of last 13 games overall, but lost 12 of last 20 road games. Oakland won seven in row and nine of last ten home tilts, Scherzer is 5-1, 1.50 in his last nine starts but has been battling physical problems, most recently a bum ankle- he allowed three runs in 7.1 IP vs A's this year. Griffin is 1-1, 7.79 in his last four starts; he allowed five runs in 4.2 IP at Detroit Sept 18. Home side won all three series games; visitors are 7-2 in other nine playoff games.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Tuesday, October 9

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ALDS betting preview: Orioles at Yankees
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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-170, 8.5)

Series tied 1-1

After earning a split of the first two games in Baltimore, the New York Yankees attempt to cash in on their home-field advantage when they host Game Three of their American League Division Series against the Orioles on Wednesday.

New York broke open a tight series opener in the ninth inning Sunday but dropped a 3-2 nail-biter at Camden Yards on Monday as Baltimore closer Jim Johnson bounced back from a disastrous outing to set down the Yankees in order and notch his first career postseason save.

Game 2 followed the same pattern as the opener, with New York scoring a run in the first inning and Baltimore plating two in the third. The difference may have been the fourth inning as the Orioles allowed the tying run to score on Monday but escaped a bases-loaded, one-out jam Tuesday to preserve their lead. Wei-Yin Chen notched the win in his postseason debut while 40-year-old Andy Pettitte took the loss, failing to add to his all-time playoff victory total of 19.

The Orioles improved to 76-0 when leading after seven innings and 30-9 in one-run games this year. They posted a 6-3 record at Yankee Stadium during the regular season.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: The forecast in the Bronx is calling for a 20 percent chance of showers earlier in the evening, eventually clear off with temperatures falling into the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow WSW at 13 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Miguel Gonzalez (9-4, 3.25 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Hiroki Kuroda (16-11, 3.32)

Gonzalez won his final three starts of the regular season and allowed two runs or less in five of his last six outings. The 28-year-old Mexican was impressive on the road in his first major league campaign, going 6-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 11 games - including two relief appearances. Gonzalez was 2-0 against the Yankees, with both victories coming in New York. He yielded four runs while striking out eight over 6 2/3 innings July 30 and fanned nine in seven scoreless frames Aug. 31.

Kuroda also finished the regular season strong, winning four of his final five decisions. The 37-year-old native of Japan had the majority of his success this year at home, where he went 11-6 with a 2.72 ERA in 19 outings. Kuroda split his two starts against the Orioles, both of which were at Yankee Stadium. He allowed one run over seven innings in a win April 30 while yielding four runs over 8 1/3 frames in a loss to Gonzalez on Aug. 31.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in New York.
* Orioles are 29-59 in the last 88 meetings in New York.
* Orioles are 25-56 in the last 81 meetings.

UMP TRENDS - Brian Gorman:

* Over is 4-0-1 in Gormans last five Wednesday games behind home plate.
* Road team is 4-0 in Gormans last four Wednesday games behind home plate vs. New York.
* Over is 5-2 in Gormans last seven games behind home plate vs. New York.
* Orioles are 0-4 in their last four Wednesday games with Gorman behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Yankees LF Ichiro Suzuki went 1-for-5 on Monday to extend his hitting streak at Camden Yards to 21 games.

2. New York (245) and Baltimore (214) were the top two teams in the major leagues in home runs during the regular season, but have combined for one over the first two games of the series.

3. Yankees RF Nick Swisher has one hit in his last 33 postseason at-bats with runners in scoring position.