Announcement

**Udog** · 10-04-2012, 08:13 AM

NFL odds: Week 5 opening line report

There are three undefeated teams left standing after four weeks of football. The Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans improved to 4-0 this past Sunday, but books are treating them all very differently heading into Week 5 of the NFL schedule.

The Falcons (3-1 ATS) are 3-point road favorites in D.C. Sunday, taking on the Washington Redskins. The Sports Club, a Nevada-based odds service, originally sent out Atlanta -2. But sportsbooks tabbed on an additional point, making the spread a clean field goal and forcing bettors to take a long look at the underdog.

“We're definitely low here and we like the higher number we see out there,” Peter Korner, founder of The Sports Club, says. “After a lot of hype, the Skins have settled down to the team we had medium expectations for. The Falcons are every bit as good as they appear.”

The Cardinals nearly lost their first game of the season against the Miami Dolphins last Sunday, needing overtime to stay perfect. Arizona (3-1 ATS), a profitable underdog through the first three weeks, is again the betting favorite, sitting as slight 1-point chalk in St. Louis Thursday night. The Sports Club suggested an opening number of Cardinals -2. Online books opened with Arizona as high as -2.5 which has since been bet down as low as pick'em.

"We're right there with this line. In fact, we're a little higher and that's where we prefer to be," says Korner. "Entering undefeated, the Cardinals are the better team and we recommend to keep the parlay cards above the current line as well."

As for the Texans (4-0 ATS), some books are dealing Houston -9 heading to the Meadowlands to face the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. The Sports Club originally suggested Texans -7 and many books followed suit, opening the spread around a touchdown.

However, with the Jets’ dismal offensive effort against the San Francisco 49ers – another stout defensive team like Houston – early money is fading the home side and has driven the spread as high as -9 at some online markets.

Korner has suggested his clients stay high on this game and expects the sharp money to lay the big favorite for this prime time matchup. The Jets have a loyal public following and the murmurs surrounding a QB switch from Mark Sanchez to Tim Tebow will only fuel the fire.

Here are the opening odds for some of the biggest NFL games on the Week 5 schedule:

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-7, 51.5)

This game will get a ton of media coverage thanks to the Manning vs. Brady angle. The early money has moved this spread from as low as 6.5 to as high as 7.5. The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of -8 on Sunday and expects to see a lot of parlay cards tied into this game.

“This is a no-brainer with the -7.5. Being a late game with few options for bettors at this point, (books should) stay clear of Patriot money as much as (they) can,” says Korner. “Denver has shown they are Jekyll-and-Hyde at home versus the road.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 44)

The Battle for Pennsylvania is leaning slightly in favor of the Steelers, who welcome their state rivals to Heinz Field Sunday. The Sports Club’s oddsmakers sent out Pittsburgh -4, however, some online books are already down to a field goal with money on Philadelphia.

Korner says the numbers are pretty solid for this AFC North-NFC East showdown. The Steelers are coming off the bye while the Eagles escaped with a home win against the New York Giants in Week 4 to lead the division at 3-1 (0-3-1 ATS).

Philadelphia is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in its last seven meeting with Pittsburgh, going back to 1988.

**Udog** · 10-04-2012, 08:13 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Arizona at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to take advantage of a St. Louis team that is coming off a 19-13 win over Seattle and is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU win. Arizona is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-1). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 4

Game 301-302: Arizona at St. Louis (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 132.310; St. Louis 129.430
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3; 35
Vegas Line: Arizona by 1; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-1); Under

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7

Game 411-412: Atlanta at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 134.442; Washington 133.740
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 54
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

Game 413-414: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 134.390; Pittsburgh 135.289
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Over

Game 415-416: Green Bay at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 134.537; Indianapolis 129.704
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7); Under

Game 417-418: Cleveland at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.455; NY Giants 140.563
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 16; 41
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 9; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-9); Under

Game 419-420: Tennessee at Minnesota (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 126.511; Minnesota 128.259
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+6); Over

Game 421-422: Miami at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 131.864; Cincinnati 132.551
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 4; 45
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+4); Over

Game 423-424: Baltimore at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.469; Kansas City 130.795
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 5; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+5); Under

Game 425-426: Seattle at Carolina (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 131.001; Carolina 135.952
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 43 1/2;
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-3); Under

Game 427-428: Chicago at Jacksonville (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 136.891; Jacksonville 126.543
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 10 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Chicago by 5 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-5 1/2); Over

Game 429-430: Denver at New England (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 131.425; New England 143.404
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2); Under

Game 431-432: Buffalo at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 129.662; San Francisco 138.350
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 8 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 10; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+10); Over

Game 433-434: San Diego at New Orleans (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 131.591; New Orleans 133.820
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 2; 58
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3 1/2); Over

MONDAY, OCTOBER 8

Game 435-436: Houston at NY Jets (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 139.692; NY Jets 132.154
Dunkel Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Houston by 9; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+9); Under

**Udog** · 10-04-2012, 08:14 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 4

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ARIZONA (4 - 0) at ST LOUIS (2 - 2) - 10/4/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 121-158 ATS (-52.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 121-158 ATS (-52.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 62-88 ATS (-34.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 88-124 ATS (-48.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 95-125 ATS (-42.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 43-67 ATS (-30.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 7

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ATLANTA (4 - 0) at WASHINGTON (2 - 2) - 10/7/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 2) - 10/7/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 53-31 ATS (+18.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (2 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) - 10/7/2012, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (0 - 4) at NY GIANTS (2 - 2) - 10/7/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (1 - 3) at MINNESOTA (3 - 1) - 10/7/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 39-17 ATS (+20.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (1 - 3) at CINCINNATI (3 - 1) - 10/7/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 106-139 ATS (-46.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (3 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 3) - 10/7/2012, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (2 - 2) at CAROLINA (1 - 3) - 10/7/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 51-79 ATS (-35.9 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-49 ATS (-29.9 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
CAROLINA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 3) - 10/7/2012, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (2 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 2) - 10/7/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 148-109 ATS (+28.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 1) - 10/7/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (3 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 4) - 10/7/2012, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in dome games since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, October 8

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HOUSTON (4 - 0) at NY JETS (2 - 2) - 10/8/2012, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 10-04-2012, 08:14 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Arizona at St. Louis, 8:20 ET NFL
Arizona: 17-5 Under as a road favorite
St. Louis: 0-8 ATS off a home game

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Atlanta at Washington, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 27-9 ATS away after allowing 400+ total yards
Washington: 2-6 ATS off a road win

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 6-1 Over after allowing 75 or less rushing yards
Pittsburgh: 9-0 ATS off a loss

Green Bay at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 10-2 Under away off a home win
Indianapolis: 5-17 ATS at home off a loss by 6 points or less

Cleveland at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 6-0 ATS away off BB losses
NY Giants: 1-6 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

Tennessee at Minnesota, 4:25 ET
Tennessee: 39-17 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Minnesota: 2-9 ATS off a win

Miami at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Miami: 7-1 ATS playing on artificial turf
Cincinnati: 13-2 Over vs. conference opponents

Baltimore at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 8-1 ATS away off an ATS loss
Kansas City: 0-6 ATS at home off a home game

Seattle at Carolina, 4:05 ET
Seattle: 6-0 ATS off BB games scoring 17 points or less
Carolina: 7-0 Over off a raod game

Chicago at Jacksonville, 4:05 ET
Chicago: 28-12 Under away vs. non-conference opponents
Jacksonville: 2-11 ATS at home off 3+ Unders

Denver at New England, 4:25 ET
Denver: 12-2 Over off an Under
New England: 6-0 ATS vs. NFC West opponents

Buffalo at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Buffalo: 17-6 ATS vs. NFC West opponents
San Francisco: 13-27 ATS after allowing 9 points or less

(TC) San Diego at New Orleans, 8:30 ET NBC
San Diego: 10-2 Over away after having a TO margin of +3 or better
New Orleans: 6-0 ATS at home off an ATS win

Monday, October 8, 2012

Houston at NY Jets, 8:35 ET ESPN
Houston: 7-0 ATS after scoring 30+ points
NY Jets: 2-10 ATS at home off a loss by 21+ points

** Week 5 Byes: Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, Tampa Bay **

(TC) = Time Change

**Udog** · 10-04-2012, 08:15 AM

NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 4

8:20 PM
ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing Arizona
St. Louis is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Arizona

Sunday, October 7

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Miami's last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
Cincinnati is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Miami
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Miami

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games at home

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City's last 15 games

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland's last 13 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
CHICAGO vs. JACKSONVILLE
Chicago is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

4:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. CAROLINA
Seattle is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Carolina's last 11 games
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

4:15 PM
DENVER vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
Denver is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
New England is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Denver
New England is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games

4:15 PM
BUFFALO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Buffalo's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo

4:25 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MINNESOTA
Tennessee is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

8:20 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. NEW ORLEANS
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Diego's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing San Diego
New Orleans is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games

Monday, October 8

8:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. NY JETS
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games

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**Udog** · 10-04-2012, 08:15 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Thursday's game
Cardinals (4-0) @ Rams (2-2)-- Arizona has now won last 10 games that were decided by less than 7 points; three of their four wins this year came down to last minute, so long travel on short work week could be dicey, seeing how Rams won both home games (albeit both wins came vs rookie QBs). Cardinals won 10 of last 11 series games, winning last seven visits here by average score of 29-20, but these Rams aren't those Rams, having forced 8 turnovers in four games (+2). Problem for St Louis is porous OL; they've run ball for just 134 yards on 44 carries (3.0/carry) in last two games, scoring one TD, and that on 52-yard drive. Home teams are 10-12 vs spread in divisional games so far this season. Average total in last four series games was 32.5.

**Udog** · 10-04-2012, 08:16 AM

NFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football: Cardinals at Rams
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Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (+1, 39.5)

THE STORY: The Arizona Cardinals try to become the first team to five wins as they bring their perfect record into the Edward Jones Dome to face the NFC West-rival St. Louis Rams on Thursday.

Arizona remained one of three undefeated clubs in the league with a wild 24-21 overtime victory at home over Miami in Week 4. The Cardinals extended their home winning streak to eight games, the longest run for the franchise since the 1925 Chicago Cardinals captured nine in a row.

St. Louis is coming off a spirited home triumph over Seattle in which it scored its only touchdown on a fake field-goal attempt. The rest of the offense came from rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein, who booted four field goals. Zuerlein twice set the franchise record for the longest field goal, booting a 58-yarder in the first quarter before hitting from 60 yards in the third. The Rams had lost four straight and 13 of 14 against the Seahawks prior to Sunday.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Oddsmakers opened the Rams as high as 2.5-point home underdogs but that spread has been bet down to +1. The total has climbed from 38.5 to 39.5.

CONSENSUS: 60 percent of consensus players are on Arizona Thursday night.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (4-0, 3-1 ATS): The team is off to its best start since 1974, when it won its first seven games while based in St. Louis. Quarterback Kevin Kolb overcame eight sacks against the Dolphins to throw three touchdown passes, including a 15-yarder to Andre Roberts on 4th-and-2 with 22 seconds remaining in regulation. The Cardinals' running game was virtually non-existent as they gained 28 yards on the ground. Safety Adrian Wilson returned to action after missing a game with an ankle injury and made eight tackles while also recording a sack. Arizona registered four sacks, marking the NFL-best 10th straight game it has notched at least two.

ABOUT THE RAMS (2-2, 3-1 ATS): Rookie punter Johnny Hekker, who was a quarterback in high school, threw St. Louis' lone touchdown pass Sunday. With Seattle expecting Zuerlein to boot his second field goal of the game, Hekker tossed the ball to a wide-open Danny Amendola for a 2-yard score. The Rams already have matched their win total from last season, when they finished tied with Indianapolis with a league-worst 2-14 record. They are 2-0 this year at home, where they were victorious just once in 2011.

TRENDS:

* Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in St. Louis.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald matched Mel Gray's franchise record Sunday by catching a pass in his 121st consecutive game.

2. Zuerlein is a perfect 12-for-12 on field-goal attempts.

3. Arizona has posted five overtime victories during its eight-game home winning streak.

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**Udog** · 10-04-2012, 12:25 PM

NFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the tape: Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
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The NFC West takes the Thursday night stage for a showdown between the undefeated Arizona Cardinals and the improving St. Louis Rams. Here’s the tale of the tape for this divisional matchup:

Offense

The Cardinals are on their second QB of the season after No. 1 John Skelton went down with an ankle injury in Week 1. Kevin Kolb has stepped in under center, helping Arizona to a 4-0 mark. Kolb has a 7-2 TD-to-INT ratio, a 62.6 percent completion rate and a QB rating of 97.6. It helps having a WR like Larry Fitzgerald (245 yards, two TDs) and a budding target in Andre Roberts, who has hauled in four TD catches. The Cardinals' rushing attack is ranked 28th in the league, averaging only 68.8 yards per game. Rookie Ryan Williams leads the team with 131 yards but has already fumbled twice.

The Rams offense is among the worst in the NFL, averaging only 19.8 points on 287 yards per game. Quarterback Sam Bradford has struggled the past two games, posting a 52.4 completion rate, zero TDs and three INTs. St. Louis’ big offensive weapon, RB Steven Jackson, has been slowed due to injury, rushing for only 195 yards - 3.3 yards per carry – and has failed to find the end zone.

Edge: Arizona

Defense

Arizona’s stop unit has a bend-but-don’t-break mentality, sitting 17th in yards allowed (357 per game) but third in points allowed (15.2 per game). The Cardinals’ speedy pass rush is getting to opposing QBs, totaling 16 sacks on the year so far – second most in the NFL. Linebacker Sam Acho leads the team with three QB kills. Arizona is allowing 101 yards on the ground per game, 14th in the NFL, and locked Miami down for just 86 yards rushing in Week 4. The Cardinals have forced seven fumbles, recovering six of those – one for a TD.

St. Louis is among the best ball-hawking teams in the league, picking off eight passes through the first four weeks of the schedule. Three of those came against Detroit last week. Corner Cortland Finnegan has three INTs in his first four games since being acquired this offseason. While the pass defense has been respectable, the Rams have been rolled by the run, giving up 135.2 yards per game on the ground. Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch rumbled for 118 yards and a TD against St. Louis last Sunday.

Edge: St. Louis

Special teams

Arizona kicker Jay Feely gave the Cardinals a 24-21 win over Miami in overtime with a 46-yard FG. He’s 7-for-7 on the season and is 3-for-3 on FGs of more than 40 yards this season. Arizona has punted a league-high 26 times, averaging 47.5 yards per punt. On the other side of that, the Cardinals have averaged only 7.9 yards per punt return and 24.9 yards per kickoff return. Top return man Patrick Peterson’s longest punt return has been 17 yards.

The Rams have also been perfect on FGs with kicker Greg Zuerlein going 12 for 12, including going 3 for 3 from 50-plus yards. St. Louis is averaging 46.6 yards per punt while allowing foes to return those for just 8.2 yards per punt. The Rams return team ranks last in the league in kickoff returns (17.8 yards per) and 18th in punt returns (9.1 yards per). Receiver Danny Amendola has been fielding punts, with his biggest return standing at 22 yards this season.

Edge: Draw

Word on the street

“Honestly, it’s going to feel the same as any other game. It doesn’t matter how many people are watching, you just go out there play the game." – St. Louis K Greg Zuerlein about kicking under the pressure of a primetime game.

“That’s the confidence we have late in games. Our offense believes in our defense and our defense believes in our offense. That’s what helps us win.” – Arizona WR Andre Roberts on the team’s success late in games.

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**Udog** · 10-04-2012, 12:27 PM

Betting the bye: NFL's best/worst bets off the bye week

Week 5 of the NFL season is the first time football bettors will deal with teams coming off bye weeks.

The break in the schedule can be a blessing or a burden, depending on a team’s situation. This week, two teams are returning to action following the bye – the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts.

The Steelers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) got an extra week to rid the taste of an upset loss to the Oakland Raiders in Week 3 as well as give RB Rashard Mendenhall, S Troy Polamalu and LB James Harrison some added recovery time.

Pittsburgh, which takes on state rival Philadelphia as a 3.5-point home favorite Sunday, is just 10-13 ATS (14-9 SU) coming off a bye week since 1990.

The Colts had a rough week off with news that head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia. Pagano will step away from the team for treatment, leaving the head coaching duties to offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. Indianapolis followed its first win of the season with a close loss to Jacksonville in Week 3, failing to cover as a 3-point home favorite.

Oddsmakers have tagged the Colts as 7-point underdogs hosting Green Bay in their first game back from the break. Since 1990, Indianapolis is 12-10-1 ATS (13-10 SU) following the bye.

Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, and Tampa Bay are all off in Week 5 and betting the bye week can be a useful handicapping tool throughout the NFL season. Here’s a look at the best and worst bets coming off the bye:

Stats since 1990 (1993 season had two bye weeks):

Best bets off the bye

Dallas Cowboys: 16-7 ATS/16-7 SU
Denver Broncos: 16-6-1 ATS/17-6 SU
Philadelphia Eagles: 16-7 ATS /19-4 SU
Arizona Cardinals: 14-9 ATS/10-13 SU
Buffalo Bills: 14-8-1 ATS/15-8 SU

Worst bets off the bye

Seattle Seahawks: 4-17-2 ATS/6-17 SU
New York Giants: 7-15-1 ATS: 8-15 SU
Oakland Raiders: 8-14-1 ATS/9-14 SU
San Francisco 49ers: 8-14-1 ATS/10-13 SU
Cincinnati Bengals: 10-13 ATS/6-17 SU

**Udog** · 10-04-2012, 09:18 PM

NFL Week 5 line moves: Browns-Giants see big drop

Tracking line moves as we head into the second quarter of the schedule. We spoke with Mike Perry at sportsbook.ag and Aron Black at bet365.com for a look at a few games as we follow the money.

Cleveland Browns at New York Giants – Open: Cleveland +13, Move: Cleveland +8
Betonline opened this one at a fat 13, but most everyone else was in the Browns +10 range, and since then it has been bet down a bit. “The Browns have been competitive in every game they’ve played this year,” notes Perry, and Black adds that “The Giants seem to be playing bad one week and good the next.” The public, says Perry, is on the Browns by a 2-1 margin, while Black reports light action on this one.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: Jacksonville +3, Move: Jacksonville +6
The Jags have only two problems – one is offense, the other defense. Both should be on display this week. And As Perry notes, “It’s tough to argue with people backing the Bears after the way they looked against the Cowboys on Monday night.” Black, meanwhile, sees a very difficult game ahead for offensive-challenged Jacksonville. Perry’s book pulls in the rope a bit and now lists J-Ville at +5.5, even though bettors are heavy (93 percent) on the Bears.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals – Open Bengals -5.5, Move Bengals -3
This has been bet down to a field goal game, mainly because the Dolphins have been able to hang in over the last few weeks, losing by three each to the Jets and unbeaten Cardinals. Perry points out that the Dolphins had a good chance to beat Arizona last weekend. “Do they pull the upset this week?” he asks. Bettors say no, expecting a cover by a 65-35 margin. The Bengals could be overvalued, as Black notes that they will be playing their fifth straight game against a first- or second-year quarterback.

Houston Texans at New York Jets – Open: Jets +9, Move Jets +8
These teams are going in opposite directions, and the betting public (decisively on the Texans) apparently doesn’t care that the game will be played in New Jersey and that New York will be getting a touchdown and change. “If San Francisco can go up 34 on the Jets with no reply,” says Black, “what is Houston capable of?” The Jets haven’t been this big a home dog since they got 7.5 against the Colts in 2006. Jets die-hards can still get 9 by shopping around. “Question is,” says Perry, “will the Jets even make it competitive on Monday night?”

**Udog** · 10-05-2012, 09:43 PM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 5

Want to handicap Sunday's NFL action but don't have time to research every game? Check out our NFL poolies cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs. We give you quick-hitting notes on all of Week 5's action.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 45)

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill will likely not have to go against the full strength of the Cincinnati secondary, with at least four cornerbacks either doubtful or questionable. Miami still has to face a Bengals’ pass rush that has racked up a league-leading 16 sacks, though. Miami leads the NFL in rushing defense, surrendering just 56.8 yards, but has been susceptible to the pass. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (6, 46.5)

The Ravens, who played their first four games in an 18-day span, seek their first road win of the season against a bumbling Chiefs team that committed six turnovers in last week's 37-20 loss to the Chargers. Kansas City ranks last in the NFL in turnover margin at minus-13. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (3, 51)

A pair of red-hot quarterbacks meet in the nation’s capital on Sunday as Matt Ryan brings the undefeated Falcons into FedEx Field for a meeting with rookie sensation Robert Griffin III. Ryan is the top-rated passer, completing more than 69 percent of his attempts with 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Griffin is on pace to throw for 4,000 yards and run for an additional thousand. The rookie from Baylor is aiming to help Washington end a seven-game slide at home. The Redskins have played over the total in their last five home contests.

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 43)

Pittsburgh benefited from having a bye week to lick its wounds after dropping a 34-31 overtime decision to Oakland on Sept. 23. The Steelers are expected to be buoyed by the return of running back Rashard Mendenhall, who is coming back from last season's torn ACL injury. Stud safety Troy Polamalu could also return after missing two games with a strained calf and James Harrison eyes his season debut after nursing a sore left knee. The Steelers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (7, 48)

The Indianapolis Colts received a shocking setback when it was revealed earlier in the week that first-year head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia. Pagano will be hospitalized for six to eight weeks to undergo treatment, leaving interim coach Bruce Arians to guide the Colts. Green Bay is expected to be without wideout Greg Jennings, who aggravated a groin injury in last week's contest. These clubs have played over the total in their last four meetings.

Cleveland Browns at N.Y. Giants (-9.5, 44)

The Browns attempt to snap a 10-game losing streak against the Giants on Sunday. Cleveland RB Trent Richardson leads AFC rookies with 222 rushing yards and has a rushing TD in three straight games. The Giants will likely be without WR Hakeem Nicks (knee, foot) for a third straight week, but QB Eli Manning has thrown for 1,320, the second highest total in the league and has won seven straight starts against the AFC dating back to last season.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3, 43.5)

The Seattle offense has been unimpressive under rookie QB Russell Wilson, ranking 28th in scoring (17.5) and 29th in total yards (281.5). But the defense has kept the Seahawks in games, allowing just 14.5 points and 275.8 total yards per game. The most puzzling aspect of Carolina’s early-season struggles has been the inconsistency of the run game, which averaged 35 yards on the ground against Tampa Bay and the New York Giants and 209 rushing yards against New Orleans and Atlanta. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (4.5, 41)

The Jacksonville Jaguars own the worst offense in the NFL - and now host a Chicago Bears team that has forced seven interceptions in the last two weeks and leads the NFL with 11 on the season. The home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-6.5, 51.5)

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, two of the most iconic quarterbacks in NFL history, will meet for the 13th time when the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Brady is 8-4 head-to-head against Manning - all during Manning's 14 seasons with Indianapolis. New England became the first team in NFL history with a 300-yard passer last week at Buffalo, two 100-yard rushers (Brandon Bolden, Stevan Ridley) and a pair of 100-yard receivers (Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski). The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight October games.

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, 44.5)

San Francisco had a dominant performance against the Jets last week. The defense allowed a season-low 145 total yards in the shutout, and the offense was efficient, which has become quarterback Alex Smith's hallmark. Smith has been steady as ever, completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 784 yards with five touchdowns and one interception, and Frank Gore (326 yards, 3 TDs) averages 4.9 yards per attempt. The over is 8-2-1 in the Bills’ last 11 road games.

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 44)

The Titans’ biggest problem is a defense that is allowing an NFL-worst 37.8 points per game. The passing defense has been especially horrific, allowing an NFL-worst 75.3 percent completion rate and the second most touchdowns (10). The Titans' other current issue is at quarterback after Jake Locker (shoulder) was injured in the loss to Houston last week. Veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck, who had a pair of interceptions returned for touchdowns in relief, will be called on to start. The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 54)

The Saints will continue to have trouble winning until their NFL-worst defense (463.2 yards per game) figures out a way to keep the opponent out of the end zone. The Chargers are coming off a 37-20 victory at Kansas City, and will try for their second consecutive 4-1 start. New Orleans has played over the total in eight of its last nine games overall.

**Udog** · 10-05-2012, 09:47 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Sunday's games
Falcons (4-0) @ Redskins (2-2)—Washington plays fun games to watch; all four went over total, with Skins scoring 24+ in every game, allowing 22+- they’ve got 13 TDs on 48 drives, averaging 5.27 ppp in red zone- they’ve run ball for 175.5 yards/game, so you wonder how bad their defense would be if they weren’t running ball so well. One area Skins have struggled is on 3rd down, converting just 13 for 51 (25.4%), part of why they’ve won field position battle only once in four games. Atlanta pulled home game out of hat last week vs Carolina team with mobile QB Newton; Falcons won field position battle in all four games; they’re +8 in turnovers, with seven INTs and only three giveaways. Road team won last four series games, with average total in last five, 48.8. Falcons won their last three visits here- they’re 10-5 vs spread in last 15 games as road favorite, 20-8-1 in last 29 games where spread was 3 or less points. Since ’08, Washington is 9-11-2 as a home dog.

Eagles (3-1) @ Steelers (1-2)—Iggles have three wins by total of four points, as Vick has led game-winning drive in last 2:00 of all three wins; last week was their first turnover-free game, after they had 12 giveaways in first three games (-6). Philly off physical win over divisional rival Giants; they scored only one offensive TD in last two games (19 drives) and scored total of 23 points in splitting pair of road games. Pitt off bye after sluggish 1-2 start; add in Steelers’ post-bye stat. Eagles are 8-3 in last 11 series games, splitting last four visits here. Over last seven years, Steelers are 18-10 vs spread vs NFC foes; since ’06, they’re 17-12 as non-divisional home favorites. Eagles are 5-9 vs spread in last 14 vs AFC squads, but since ’06, they’re 13-4 as road underdog. Three of four Philly games stayed under the total. NFC teams are (9-4) vs AFC squads so far this season.

Packers (2-2) @ Colts (1-2)—Figure Colts to be emotional here- they found out this week their head coach has leukemia, and will be gone for most of rest of season. Indy off its bye, after splitting pair of close home games with Vikes/Jags (they led both games by 11 points at half). Add in Colts’ post-bye stats. Last two Packer games were decided by total of 3 points; they lost only road game (14-12 on controversial late TD at Seattle) and haven’t had takeaway in three of four games, so defense is suspect. Home side won last five series games, with Green Bay 0-3 in Indy, giving up 41 ppg, but those trends are all with #18 under center. Since 2006, Pack is 16-7-1 vs spread as road favorites- they’ve covered 15 of last 20 games vs AFC opponents. Football teams generally do worse with change of routine (see Saints) so shift of duties with Coach Pagano on sick leave will hamper progress of young Indy squad.

Browns (0-4) @ Giants (2-2)—Game opened Giants -13, was quickly bet down to -9, as Browns have yet to lose game by more than 10 points-- they’ve also had three extra days to prep after 23-16 loss (+11) in Baltimore last Thursday. Cleveland defense has been decent in red zone last three weeks, allowing four TDs, three FGs (4.00 ppp) last 10 times they were threatened. Problem for Browns is they haven’t run ball well (30 rushes for 76 yards in last two games), which exposes defense to Giant aerial attack (10.0/7.2/7.4 ypa last three games). Underdogs are 12-0 vs spread in non-divisional games involving NFC East squads (NFC East non-divisional favorites are 0-8). Trap game for Giants, after last-minute loss in Philly and with 49ers on deck; since ’09, Big Blue is 6-17-1 as home favorite (4-10-1 outside division)- they covered twice in last seven games as double digit favorite, should spread creep back to 10+ points. Three of four games for both sides stayed under the total.

Dolphins (1-3) @ Bengals (3-1)—Miami lost in OT last two weeks to Jets/ Cardinals; they’re 7th team over last 5+ years to play OT games in consecutive weeks- other six teams were 1-3-1 vs spread in that next game (one team had a bye). Three teams lost back/back OT games; those three were 1-2 vs spread in that third game, with both losses by 3 points- the three games were decided by total of 10 points. Miami is 14-5 in series vs Bengals, 8-3 here, but this is rare occasion where Cincy has better squad, having won last three games, scoring 34-38-27 points (scored 11 TDs on last 32 drives). Explosive passing attack averaged 8.0/12.8/7.9 ypa in last three games. Dolphins have seven TD drives of 75+ yards in last three games, after getting shut down by Texans in opener; Miami has to cut down on turnovers (10, -5 ratio) but they have to be pleased with progress of rookie QB Taneyhill (394 PY last week). Both teams had three of four games go over the total.

Ravens (3-1) @ Chiefs (1-3)— Word of caution on what looks like low number; since 2005, Ravens are 3-10 vs spread as road favorites in non-divisional games. Flat spot for Baltimore, coming off primetime games with Pats/Browns, and with big name Cowboys/Texans on deck. Illness to Colts’ coach Pagano had to hit hard here- he was Ravens’ defensive aide for last four years (DC LY). Chiefs are off to dismal start, allowing 34 ppg- they were down 24-6 at winless Saints in their only win, before rallying for win. KC ain’t running ball for 275 yards against Raven defense.that allowed 120 yards on 51 carries in last two games (Pats/Browns). Chiefs were outscored 58-12 in first half of last three games. OC Cameron is trying to pump up Raven passing game, but they averaged only 4.9 ypa in only road game, a 24-23 loss at Philly. Teams haven’t met since Ravens whacked KC 30-7 in ’10 playoffs, their third straight series win. Both teams had three of first four games go over total.

Seahawks (2-2) @ Panthers (1-3)— Greatest moment in Seahawk history was 34-14 win over Carolina in ’05 NFC title game, but that was many moons ago. Home side won all five series games, with Seattle losing both visits here, 26-3/13-10. Hawks have sturdy defense this year, but they don’t trust rookie QB Wilson enough to win tough road games, having scored 14.5 ppg (two TDs on 22 drives) in losing first two away games 20-16/19-13. Carolina had its guts ripped out in tough 30-28 loss at Falcons last week, when Newton fumbled on game-clinching run, with ball being recovered short of first down marker; Panthers allowed 31 ppg in last three games- they’re -6 in turnovers already and allowed nine offensive TDs in last three games (seven of nine on drives of 68+ yards). Seahawks are 15-22-3 vs spread in last 40 games where spread was 3 or less points; Panthers are 8-10 in their last 18 such games. All four Seattle games stayed under total.

Bears (3-1) @ Jaguars (1-3)—Trap game for Chicago after surprisingly easy Monday night win in Dallas; their only loss was road game at Lambeau on short week; this is road game on short week, but Jags are hardly Packer-esque, scoring two offensive TDs on 21 drives in home losses to Texans (27-7), Bengals (27-10). Bears have 11 INTs in four games- they ran three of them back for TDs in last two games, and are already +7 in turnovers. Gabbert has played better on road, averaging 2.2/3.6 ypa at home, 6.1/6.7 on road. Chicago is 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as road favorite, 12-10-3 in last 25 vs AFC teams. Jaguars are 3-8 vs spread in last 11 games as home underdogs-- road team covered all four of their games this season. Home side won last three series games; this is Bears’ first visit here since ’04. Jags’ owner Khan is from Illinois (big Illini booster) via Pakistan. Last three Jacksonville games stayed under the total.

Titans (1-3) @ Vikings (3-1)—Hard to endorse Tennessee squad that already lost games by 26-28-24 points; in their only win, they scored three non-offensive TDs, and still needed OT to beat struggling Detroit. Titans are 3-4 as road underdogs under Munchak; they’ve had only two takeaways in four games (-6 turnover ratio). Vikings didn’t score an offensive TD last week, but used PR/KR for TDs to nip the Lions in Detroit, week after they upset 49ers here; underdogs all four of their games this season. In their last three games, Minnesota allowed only 228 rushing yards on 70 carries (3.3/carry), so could be more tough sledding for Chris Johnson. Titans had 158 yards on ground last week, after having total of 117 in first three games. Vikes are 1-4 vs spread in last five games as home favorites. Minnesota won four of last five series games, with last four decided by 10+ points; titans lost six of seven visits here, with only win 20 years ago. Last three Viking games stayed under the total.

Broncos (2-2) @ Patriots (2-2)—Belichick crushed Tebow-led Broncos twice LY, 41-23 at Mile High, 45-10 at home in playoffs, but Denver has a better QB now; Patriots lost four of last five meetings with Manning brothers, with two losses to Eli in Super Bowls. Not only that, but Pats’ OC McDaniels faces his old team for first time since they fired him as HC after ’10 season. Broncos have 12 offensive TDs on 42 drives, as Manning develops chemistry with his new WRs- they pummeled Raiders LW, outgaining them 503-237, but off big divisional win and with pre-bye tilt at San Diego up next, this might be bigger game for Patriot squad that lost its only home game to 4-0 Cardinals. Pats scored 30+ points in all three away games, but were held to one TD, five FG tries in home opener. Since 2007, NE is 15-11 vs spread as a non-divisional home favorite. Keep in mind that through four weeks, underdogs are 27-14 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Bills (2-2) @ 49ers (3-1)—Buffalo was 2-1 and up at half over Patriots last week, then they gave up 45 points in second half and now its hard to tell what to make of them, considering that high-priced pass rusher Mario Williams has touched opposing QBs three times in four games. All four Bills games were decided by 10+ points, with favorites covering all four. Buffalo’s losses by 48-28/52-28 scores. Since ’05, Bills are 12-16-2 vs spread as non-divisional road dogs. Niners bounced back from loss at Metrodome by crushing dysfunctional Jets 34-0 in Swamp; 49ers’ other two wins this year are by 8 points each- they’re 8-0 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 9-4-1 vs spread in game following a win. Three of four Buffalo games went over total; last three 49er games stayed under. Niners were +28 in turnovers LY, then even in first three games this year, before +4 last week got them back on track. Since ’05, Buffalo is 10-15-3 vs spread when facing an NFC squad.

Chargers (3-1) @ Saints (0-4)—Impossible to endorse Saints as favorites here, even though Sean Payton/Mickey Loomis are attending game at request of Drew Brees, who opposes his former team here; winless Saints don’t defend well, allowing 32.5 ppg (13 TDs, 10 FGA on 45 drives)- their last two losses were by total of 4 points, but they also blew a 24-6 lead at home to 1-3 Chiefs, giving up 273 rushing yards to KC. San Diego had six takeaways (+6) LW after having total of three in first three games, but they’ve only gained 300+ TY in one game so far. Bolts are 7-3 in series, winning all four games played here; last time teams met Saints won 37-32 in London in ’08. Since 2004, San Diego is 16-8-4 as road underdogs (1-4 LY). Three of four Charger games stayed under; three of four Saint games went over total. This is one of only two games Chargers will play on artificial turf this season; other one is Week 16 at Jets.

Monday' game
Texans (4-0) @ Jets (2-2)—NY-area panic mongers have Jets dead in water after pair of losses that surrounded less-than-stellar OT win in Miami and season-ending injury to defensive ace Revis, but fact is they’re tied for first in division and facing team they’re 5-0 against, with three of five wins by 15+ points. Now would be good time for Jets to reveal grand plan as to why Tebow was brought to Swamp—he hasn’t been much of factor thus far, and team has completed just 44.1% of passes in last three games (team has 2 TDs on last 33 drives). Houston is on road for third time in last four weeks; they’ve won in Denver and outsacked opponents 13-3 this year- they had two defensive scores last week and already have four TD drives of less than 50 yards. Texans convert 45.2% (28-62) on 3rd down and are +7 in turnovers, throwing just one pick in four games. Desperate home dogs have long been solid value of Monday nights, but in this case, it takes leap of faith on Sanchez’ Jets.

**Udog** · 10-06-2012, 07:20 PM

NFL

Sunday, October 7

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Broncos at Patriots: What bettors need to know
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Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-6.5, 52)

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, two of the most iconic quarterbacks in NFL history, will meet for the 13th time when the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Brady is 8-4 head-to-head against Manning - all during Manning's 14 seasons with Indianapolis. Manning, who is fourth all-time with 143 wins, and Brady (fifth, 126) did what they do best last week - lead their teams to resounding victories. The Patriots erased a 14-point deficit and scored 45 points in the second half en route to a 52-28 win at Buffalo, while the Broncos crushed Oakland 37-6 as Manning excelled in his first taste of the bitter rivalry.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Patriots -6.5, O/U 52.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s and a 80 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the west.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-2): Denver has already faced three playoff teams from 2011, including two of the three undefeated teams this season (Houston, Atlanta) - and now takes on the defending AFC champion. If the Broncos are to stop the No. 1 offense at 438.3 yards per game, they must get huge performances from pass-rushing specialists Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller and cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter. Denver's chances will also be enhanced if its offensive balance continues. Running back Willis McGahee, who leads active players in 100-yard rushing games with 32, had 112 last week and Manning threw for 338 yards, including touchdowns to a tight end, a wide receiver and a running back.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2): New England last week became the first team in NFL history with a 300-yard passer (Brady), two 100-yard rushers (Brandon Bolden, Stevan Ridley) and a pair of 100-yard receivers (Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski) - but the No. 1 offense at 33.5 points per game will face a stiffer challenge in the NFL's No. 7 defense. The Patriots beat the Broncos twice last season - 41-23 in Denver during the regular season and 45-10 in the AFC divisional playoffs - as Brady threw 10 touchdowns against only one interception in those games. New England's defense has six interceptions and five fumble recoveries; the Patriots are second in the NFL with a plus-8 turnover margin. Brady is 2-5 against Denver in the regular season and 1-1 in the postseason, the only team against which he has a losing record.

TRENDS:

* The favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 meetings.
* Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 14 points.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. This is the second time in NFL history two QBs with 125-plus victories will meet. Denver and John Elway (148) played Miami and Dan Marino (147) in 1998. Brett Favre is the all-time leader with 186 victories.

2. The Patriots and Broncos both must buck the odds to make the playoffs: Teams that start 2-2 have made the postseason only 35.3 percent of the time since the NFL expanded to 12 playoff teams in 1990.

3. All-Pro TE Gronkowski (hip) did not practice Wednesday, but was questionable when he had five catches for 104 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo.

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**Udog** · 10-07-2012, 09:37 AM

NFL weather watch: 100 percent chance of rain for ATL/WSH

NFL game weather and resulting stadium conditions can have a significant impact on player performance and the outcome of football games. Bettors should take weather conditions into consideration, especially when placing over/under wagers.

Here are the matchups being threatened by inclement weather Sunday:

Cleveland Browns at New York Giants (-9, 43)

Site: MetLife Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s with a 75 percent chance of rain. Winds will be out of the west.

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 43)

Site: Heinz Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s with a 40 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the west.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (3, 50.5)

Site: FedEx Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s with a 100 percent chance of rain. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 41.5)

Site: Bank of America Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 45 percent of precipitation. Winds will blow out of the north at 8 mph.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (5.5, 40.5)

Site: EverBank Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-80s and partly cloudy skies at kickoff. However, the threat of a thunderstorm increases to 25 percent in the
early evening hours. Winds will be light out of the east.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-6.5, 51.5)

Site: Gillette Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 75 percent chance of rain. Winds will be calm.

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (-10, 45)

Site: Candlestick Park

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s and partly cloudy skies. The real weather story here will be the westerly 17 mph winds.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thursday, October 4 - Monday, October 8)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thursday, October 4 - Monday, October 8)

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