Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 10-03-2012, 06:57 PM

Yankees look to clinch AL East on Wednesday

BOSTON RED SOX (69-92)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (94-67)

First pitch: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -330, Boston +265, Total: 9

After a thrilling 12-inning victory on Tuesday, the Yankees look to close the regular season by clinching an AL East title and sweeping the rival Red Sox for good measure.

Raul Ibanez hit a pinch-hit, game-tying homer in the ninth and a weakly-hit, seeing-eye single in the 12th inning to lead New York back from a 3-1 deficit to a 4-3 victory and keep the Yankees one game in front of Baltimore (which beat Tampa Bay 1-0) for the division lead. On Wednesday, New York is once again heavily favored in a lopsided matchup of Japanese-born pitchers, Hiroki Kuroda (2.73 home ERA) and Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka for Boston, who has been blasted in his past three starts (13.04 ERA and 2.28 WHIP). Although Kuroda is clearly the better option, he has not pitched well down the stretch, throwing just one quality start in his past six starts and carrying a 5.02 ERA. And although Matsuzaka has been terrible in 2012, his past two outings versus the Yanks were both pretty good, as he allowed just two runs in each start with 13 K’s and just seven hits allowed in these 13 innings. And although the Red Sox are in the midst of a terrible slump, losing 11 of their past 12 games, this is team is 37-22 ATS (63%) in road games revenging 4+ straight losses versus an opponent over a two-year stretch since 1997. With such a ridiculous money line, take longshot BOSTON to finish the season with a victory.

This rare four-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Red Sox:

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (BOSTON) - stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season, after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games. (34-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (58.6%, +37.8 units. Rating = 4*).

Matsuzaka knows this will likely be his final start in a Red Sox uniform, a team he cost $103.1 million to sign six years ago. Opponents are batting .400 off him in September, and he is winless on the road this year with an atrocious 10.89 ERA and 2.11 WHIP in five away starts. However, the Red Sox are somehow 4-6 when he takes the mound this year. Matsuzaka is 3-3 all-time versus the Yankees, but has a 5.52 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in these 10 starts. Boston figures to use a lot of its relievers again on Wednesday. The Red Sox bullpen has been solid on the road this year, going 10-8 with a 3.62 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 209 strikeouts.

Kuroda (15-11, 3.34 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) has a 2.73 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 18 home starts this year, leading his team to an 11-7 record in these games. But in his past two outings at Yankee Stadium, the right-hander has allowed nine runs (8 ER) on 11 hits in just 11.2 innings. Kuroda has faced the Red Sox four times this season, with three straight quality starts against them, sporting a 2.42 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Although he averages 6.6 innings per start this season, that number has dropped to 5.2 IP per start over the past three contests. However, New York’s bullpen is perfectly capable of nailing down the victory, considering it is 24-17 with a 3.44 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 51 saves in 64 chances (80%) this year.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-03-2012, 07:00 PM

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

October 3, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Nationals are 10-0 since May 06, 2012 with a total of 7+ after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1045.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Rays are 0-20-2 OU (-3.2 ppg) since May 14, 2011 following a one run loss where they total was at least 7.5 and the opposing starter went less than 7 innings for a net profit of $2000.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Diamondbacks are 11-0 since May 05, 2011 when Ian Kennedy starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches at home for a net profit of $1100.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- Edwin Jackson has produced a team record of 1-10 following a start where he allowed at least six runs while striking out less than eight batters.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Angels are 7-0 since May 23, 2012 when Jered Weaver starts after his team scored a total of seven or more runs in his last start for a net profit of $700.

-- The Cubs are 0-6 since June 08, 2012 when Travis Wood starts after losing as an away dog in his last start for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

-- The Phillies are 0-5 since April 13, 2012 when Cliff Lee starts after losing as an an away favorite in his last start for a net profit of $680 when playing against.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-03-2012, 07:04 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 3

Hot pitchers
-- Burnett has a 1.93 RA in his last four starts.
-- Lee is 4-1, 1.43 in his last seven starts.
-- EGonzalez is 3-1, 4.15 in five starts for Houston.
-- Kennedy is 3-0, 2.67 in his last four starts.
-- Vogelsong is 2-0, 1.50 in his last couple starts.
-- Gallardo is 2-1, 3.28 in his last four starts.
-- Bailey is 3-1, 2.01 in his last six starts. Wainwright is 1-0, 3.32 in his last three outings.

-- Griffin is 2-0, 1.23 in his last three starts.
-- Weaver is 4-0, 1.98 in his last four starts. Beavan has a 2.89 RA in his last three outings.
-- Diamond is 1-0, 2.51 in his last couple starts. Morrow is 1-1, 2.65 in his last three outings.
-- Huff is 2-0, 3.09 in his last couple starts. Floyd is 2-1, 3.50 in his last three starts.
-- Tillman is 3-0, 1.50 in his last five starts. Hellickson has a 2.51 RA in his last six outings.
-- Scherzer is 5-1, 1.62 in his last eight starts. Mendoza is 1-0, 3.32 in his last three outings.

Cold pitchers
-- Sheets is 0-3, 8.27 in his last three starts (last one was August 24).
-- Jackson is 0-2, 9.31 in his last four starts.
-- Wood is 0-2, 6.32 in his last three starts.
-- Hefner is 1-2, 8.04 in his last four starts. Koehler allowed five runs in 8.1 IP in seven big league games; he was 12-11, 4.17 in 27 AAA starts.
-- Francis is 0-3, 7.88 in his last four starts.
-- Fife is 0-2, 3.77 in his last three starts.
-- Werner is 0-2, 8.78 in his last three starts.

-- Dempster is 1-2, 6.32 in his last three starts.
-- Matsuzaka is 0-3, 13.50 in his last four starts. Kuroda is 3-3, 4.93 in his last seven starts.

Hot Teams
-- Atlanta won 11 of its last 16 games.
-- Astros are 7-4 in their last eleven games.
-- Cincinnati won nine of its last fourteen games. Cardinals won 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Giants won 14 of their last 18 games. Dodgers won their last six.

-- Indians won six of their last nine games.
-- Orioles won 12 of their last 16 games. Tampa Bay won 11 of its last 13.
-- Bronx won 15 of its last 20 games.
-- Detroit won seven of its last nine games.
-- A's won 17 of their last 22 home games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost 16 of their last 24 games.
-- Phillies lost six of their last nine games. Washington lost three of five.
-- Marlins lost ten of their last fourteen games. Mets lost last four games.
-- Cubs lost 12 of their last 14 games.
-- San Diego lost six of their last seven games. Brewers are 4-5 in last nine.
-- Arizona is 4-5 in its last nine games. Rockies lost four of their last five.

-- White Sox lost 11 of their last 14 games.
-- Blue Jays lost 14 of their last 22 games. Minnesota lost five of six. .
-- Red Sox lost 11 of their last 12 games.
-- Royals lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Rangers lost six of their last eight games.
-- Mariners lost 13 of their last 18 games. Angels lost last three games.

Totals
-- Under is 18-7-2 in Atlanta's last 27 games.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Washington games.
-- Under is 8-3-2 in Miami's last thirteen games.
-- Under is 10-5 in Houston's last fifteen games.
-- Last three Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- 17 of last 21 Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
-- 17 of last 23 Colorado games went over the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Giant games went over the total.

-- Seven of last nine Cleveland games went over total.
-- Under is 6-4-2 in last dozen Minnesota games.
-- Six of last nine Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
-- Over is 6-3-2 in last eleven Bronx games.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Kansas City games..
-- Over is 10-5-1 in last sixteen Oakland games.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in Angels' last eight games.

Umpires
-- Atl-Pitt-- Five of last six Blaser games went over total.
-- Phil-Wsh-- Six of last eight Gibson games went over total.
-- NY-Mia-- Home side won Fletcher's last 13 games behind plate.
-- Hst-Chi-- Home side won 12 of last 17 Tumpane games.
-- SD-Mil-- Underdogs won seven of last ten Hoye games.
-- Cin-StL-- Visiting team won eight of last eleven Marquez games.
-- Col-Az-- Five of last seven Ripperger games went over.
-- SF-LA-- Nine of last 12 Vanover games went over total.

-- Chi-Cle-- Last five Everitt games stayed under the total.
-- Min-Tor-- Basner is rookie ump; don't have much info on him.
-- Bos-NY-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Bucknor games.
-- Blt-TB-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five TBarrett games.
-- Det-KC-- Under is 11-3-2 in last sixteen Winters games.
-- Tex-A's-- Underdogs are 7-4 in last 11 Cederstrom games.
-- LA-Sea-- Last four Davidson games stayed under the total.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-03-2012, 07:08 PM

Holy cow! 'Under' goes undefeated in Tues. MLB

The penultimate night of the major league baseball season turned out to be the ultimate night of the season for under bettors.

The under went an incredible 13-0-2 against the total with the only two pushes coming in the Angels-M’s and Mets-Marlins games. The Mets-Marlins contest even needed extra innings to reach the push.

The highest scoring game of the night was the Rockies-Diamondbacks, which saw only 8 runs scored and fell 1.5 runs shy of the 9.5-run total. Seven games saw a combined seven runs scored, while the lowest scoring game was the O’s-Rays, where Baltimore squeaked out a 1-0 victory in a contest that saw just four hits.

Cold weather plays a key factor this time of year, which can make it more difficult for the ball to carry. Teams are also giving less experienced players a chance to get in the lineup for the clubs with no hope of reaching the playoffs.

At the same time, teams trying to make the playoffs are throwing out their best pitchers and you’re likely to see fielders sacrificing more to make plays. All that said, it's a bit of a fluke for this to happen. (We're looking into the last time it happened - if it ever did.)

Oddsmakers did what they could to limit the damage – the highest over/under on the board was 9.5 yesterday and seven games saw totals of either 7 or 7.5 runs

**StarDust Bum** · 10-03-2012, 07:11 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, October 3

National League

Atlanta at Pittsburgh, 12:35 ET
Sheets: Atlanta 2-7 SU in October
Burnett: 9-1 TSR in day games

Philadelphia at Washington, 1:05 ET
Lee: 4-11 TSR pitching off a team loss
Jackson: Washington 19-6 SU on Wednesdays

Houston at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 ET
Gonzalez: Houston 8-31 SU off 4+ road games
Wood: Cubs 14-4 Under off a shutout division loss

NY Mets at Miami, 4:10 ET
Hefner: Mets 38-19 Under in October
Koehler: Miami 6-19 SU off BB wins by 2 runs or less

Colorado at Arizona, 7:10 ET
Francis: 7-24 TSR vs. division opponents
Kennedy: 24-4 TSR vs. division opponents

San Francisco at LA Dodgers, 7:15 ET
Vogelsong: 10-2 TSR after allowing 1 or 0 ER's last start
Kershaw: Dodgers 9-18 SU revenging a loss as a home favorite

San Diego at Milwaukee, 8:10 ET
Werner: San Diego 13-5 SU revenging 3+ losses
Stinson: Milwaukee 15-8 Over off a win by 1 run

Cincinnati at St. Louis, 8:15 ET
Bailey: 12-3 TSR in road games
Miller: St. Louis 18-7 Under on Wednesdays

American League

Texas at Oakland, 3:35 ET MLB
Dempster: 8-3 Under in day games
Griffin: 6-1 TSR in home games

LA Angels at Seattle, 6:40 ET
Weaver: 22-5 TSR as a favorite
Beavan: Seattle 23-48 SU off 3+ division games

Minnesota at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Diamond: 8-1 Over away with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs
Morrow: Toronto 9-21 SU after winning 3 of their last 4 games

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Floyd: White Sox 15-6 SU revenging a loss by one run
Huff: Cleveland 26-41 SU off a win

Boston at NY Yankees, 7:05 ET ESPN
Matsuzaka: Boston 6-20 SU revenging 3+ losses
Kuroda: 9-2 Under pitching off BB team wins

Baltimore at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET ESPN2
Tillman: 10-4 TSR in the second half of the season
Hellickson: 3-10 TSR pitching off a team loss

Detroit at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
Marte: Detroit 33-14 Under off BB Unders
Mendoza: 11-5 TSR vs. division opponents

** End of MLB Regular Season **

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