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**StarDust Bum** · 10-02-2012, 08:09 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 2

Hot pitchers
-- GGonzalez is 4-1, 2.32 in his last five starts.
-- Dickey is 5-2, 2.28 in his last eight starts.
-- Norris has a 3.23 RA in his last five starts.
-- Latos is 2-0, 2.27 in his last five starts. Carpenter has a 3.27 RA in his two starts this season.
-- Chacin is 3-2, 3.43 in his last eight starts.
-- Zito is 4-0, 2.19 in his last four starts.

-- Phelps is 1-0, 1.46 in his last couple starts.
-- Shields is 3-1, 2.21 in his last five starts. MGonzalez is 2-0, 2.79 in his last three starts.
-- Fister is 3-1, 2.86 in his last five starts. Guthrie is 0-0, 2.79 in his last four outings.
-- Harrison is 3-1, 2.54 in his last four starts.
-- Haren is 4-2, 3.22 in his last six starts. Iwakuma is 5-2, 2.81 in his last eight outings.

Cold pitchers
-- Hanson is 1-4, 6.00 in his last seven starts. Correia is 0-2, 8.71 in his last couple starts.
-- Cloyd is 1-1, 6.30 in his last four starts.
-- Turner is 0-2, 8.18 in his last couple starts.
-- Volstad is 0-1, 11.37 in his last three starts.
-- Thornburg is 0-0, 6.30 in two starts this season. Bass is 0-2, 7.59 in his last four starts, last of which was June 20.
-- Corbin is 1-2, 7.40 in his last five starts.
-- Capuano is 1-1, 5.52 in his last five starts.

-- Masterson is 0-3, 7.36 in his last four starts. Peavy is 1-2, 4.50 in his last four starts.
-- Jenkins is 0-2, 4.15 in two starts this season. Swarzak is 0-4, 8.35 in four starts last year; last start was May 25.
-- Lester is 0-3, 4.62 in his last four starts.
-- Blackley allowed nine runs in three IP in his last two starts.

Hot Teams
-- Atlanta won 11 of its last 15 games.
-- Astros are 6-4 in their last ten games.
-- Cincinnati won nine of its last thirteen games. Cardinals won 11 of their last 14 games.
-- Giants won 14 of their last 18 games. Dodgers won their last six.

-- Indians won five of their last eight games.
-- Orioles won 11 of their last 15 games. Tampa Bay won 11 of its last 12.
-- Bronx won 14 of its last 19 games.
-- Detroit won seven of its last eight games.
-- A's won 16 of their last 21 home games.
-- Angels won 12 of their last 17 games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost 16 of their last 23 games.
-- Phillies lost five of their last eight games. Washington lost three of four.
-- Marlins lost ten of their last thirteen games. Mets lost last three games.
-- Cubs lost 11 of their last 13 games.
-- San Diego lost five of their last six games. Brewers are 3-5 in last eight.
-- Arizona is 3-5 in its last eight games. Rockies lost three of their last four.

-- White Sox lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Blue Jays lost 14 of their last 21 games. Minnesota lost four of five.
-- Red Sox lost ten of their last eleven games.
-- Royals lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Mariners lost 13 of their last 17 games.

Totals
-- Under is 17-7-2 in Atlanta's last 26 games.
-- Over is 8-1-1 in last ten Washington games.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in Miami's last twelve games.
-- Six of Cubs' last nine games went over total.
-- Over is 19-11-1 in last 31 Milwaukee games.
-- 16 of last 20 Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
-- 17 of last 22 Colorado games went over the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Giant games went over the total.

-- Seven of last eight Cleveland games went over total.
-- Over is 8-5 in last thirteen Toronto games.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Baltimore games.
-- Over is 6-2-2 in last ten Bronx games.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Kansas City games..
-- Over is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Oakland games.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in Angels' last seven games.

Umpires
-- Atl-Pitt-- 10 of last 14 BWelke games went over the total.
-- Phil-Wsh-- Home team won 10 of last 11 Gonzalez games.
-- NY-Mia-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Drake games.
-- Hst-Chi-- Four of last five Bell games stayed under the total.
-- SD-Mil-- Nine of last 12 Reynolds games stayed under.
-- Cin-StL-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Fairchild games.
-- Col-Az-- Last six Meals games went over the total.
-- SF-LA-- Over is 27-4-1 in Emmel's 32 games this year.

-- Chi-Cle-- Eight of last nine Schrieber games went over total.
-- Min-Tor-- Last three Fagan games stayed under total.
-- Bos-NY-- Seven of last nine Miller games went over.
-- Blt-TB-- Home side won nine of last ten Hickox games.
-- Det-KC-- Five of last six Knight games stayed under.
-- Tex-A's-- 17 of last 19 Culbreth games stayed under total.
-- LA-Sea-- Four of last five Tichenor games went over total.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-02-2012, 08:12 PM

MLB

Tuesday, October 2

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MLB Tuesday: Previewing the games that still matter
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A brief look at all the games Tuesday that still have something on the line in terms of playoff qualification and placement. The odds listed below are the suggested overnight lines. Most sportsbooks have delayed the odds for these games as oddsmakers wait on lineups and other key info, as per usual at this time of year.

Boston at NY Yankees 7:05 PM ET (-130, O/U 9)

The Boston Red Sox are showing more interest in development than winning at this point, leaving the New York Yankees with a clear path to the American League East title. The Red Sox started a lineup that included only two players from the opening day roster in Monday’s series opener and ended up getting crushed, 10-2, for their sixth straight loss. With the Orioles losing, the Yankees now lead the East by one game with two left. The total salary for Boston’s starting lineup on Monday was $12.5 million, about $136 million less than New York’s.

The Boston Red Sox are showing more interest in development than winning at this point, leaving the New York Yankees with a clear path to the American League East title. The Red Sox started a lineup that included only two players from the opening day roster in Monday’s series opener and ended up getting crushed, 10-2, for their sixth straight loss. With the Orioles losing, the Yankees now lead the East by one game with two left.

The total salary for Boston’s starting lineup on Monday was $12.5 million, about $136 million less than New York’s. The Yankees looked like the clearly superior team, putting up nine runs in the second inning and cruising to the win. New York got Mark Teixeira back after a two-week absence and the slugger contributed a home run during the second-inning barrage. The hottest player for the Yankees lately has been Robinson Cano, who has multiple hits in seven straight games and homered among three extra-base hits Monday. The Red Sox are giving time to everyone on the 40-man roster at this point. Four players in Monday’s lineup came in batting less than .200.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, NESN (Boston), YES (New York)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox LH Jon Lester (9-14, 4.94 ERA) vs. Yankees RH David Phelps (4-4, 3.34)

Lester, like most of the team, is coming to the end of a disappointing campaign. The former All-Star has suffered the loss in each of his last three starts and has allowed at least three runs in seven consecutive turns. Lester is guaranteed to finish with his highest full-season ERA, WHIP and batting average against. He issued seven walks in 5 1/3 innings against the Yankees on Sept. 11 and is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA in four starts against the rivals this season.

Tuesday would be Ivan Nova’s normal spot in the rotation, but New York has decided to skip the struggling right-hander in favor of Phelps, who has had two strong starts against Boston since Aug. 18. Phelps has bounced between the bullpen and the rotation this season, posting a 2-2 record with a 3.81 ERA in 10 starts. The rookie allowed one run in 5 2/3 innings to beat the Red Sox on Sept. 12 and turned in a quality start in a losing effort Aug. 18.

WALK-OFFS

1. Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia (finger) and CF Jacoby Ellsbury (unspecified injury) both sat out on Monday. Both could return Tuesday.

2. New York 3B Alex Rodriguez snapped an 11-game streak without an RBI with a sacrifice fly Monday.

3. Boston would clinch its first last-place finish since 1992 with a loss Tuesday.

Philadelphia at Washington 7:05 PM ET (-200, O/U 8)

The Washington Nationals have clinched the National League East and the next task is earning the top record in the league. Washington is tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the best mark entering Tuesday’s game against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies, but holds the tiebreaker edge on the Reds. Philadelphia will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006 and needs to win one of its final two games for its 10th straight winning season. The Nationals plan to start ace Gio Gonzalez to keep him on normal schedule for a probable Game 1 start in the postseason. Gonzalez leads the majors with 21 victories and is among the top candidates for the NL Cy Young Award.

The Washington Nationals have clinched the National League East and the next task is earning the top record in the league. Washington is tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the best mark entering Tuesday’s game against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies, but holds the tiebreaker edge on the Reds. Philadelphia will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006 and needs to win one of its final two games for its 10th straight winning season.

The Nationals plan to start ace Gio Gonzalez to keep him on normal schedule for a probable Game 1 start in the postseason. Gonzalez leads the majors with 21 victories and is among the top candidates for the NL Cy Young Award. First baseman Adam LaRoche needs one RBI to reach 100 for the second time in his career. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman (2006, 2009) and former Nationals outfielder Adam Dunn (2009-10) are the only Washington players to reach 100 RBIs. Philadelphia plans to use an all-relievers pitching alignment with B.J. Rosenberg opening the contest.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, CS Philadelphia, MASN (Washington)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Phillies RH B.J. Rosenberg (1-2, 6.86 ERA) vs. Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (21-8, 2.89)

Rosenberg has pitched 21 innings in 21 appearances and has never started a major league game. He has pitched 3 1/3 hitless innings against Washington this season. The decision to pitch a bullpen game was made when Tyler Cloyd was shut down with a tired arm. Tyson Brummett was recalled Sunday and will pitch in Tuesday’s contest.

Gonzalez has been strong all season but is finishing with a flourish. He is 5-1 with a 1.35 ERA over his last six outings, allowing only 24 hits in 40 innings during the stretch. Gonzalez is 3-1 with a 2.52 ERA in four starts against the Phillies. He beat Philadelphia on Thursday when he allowed three runs and six hits in six innings.

WALK-OFFS

1. Nationals C Kurt Suzuki is batting .393 with seven RBIs over his last eight games.

2. Phillies SS Jimmy Rollins (calf) missed the opener and also might be sidelined for the final two games.

3. Washington 2B Danny Espinosa is batting only .167 with no homers and one RBI in 16 games against Philadelphia this season.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay 7:10 PM ET (-150, O/U 7)

The Rays, despite winning 11 of their last 12 games, were eliminated from postseason contention Monday night when the Oakland Athletics beat Texas to clinch the last playoff spot and move into a tie with the Orioles for the American League wild card lead. Monday's 5-3 loss snapped a four-game winning streak for Baltimore, which is one game behind the division-leading New York Yankees in the AL East. Division title aside, the Orioles have tons of incentive to win their last two games, particularly with the possibility of having to fly to Oakland for a one-game playoff because the Athletics hold the tiebreaker.

The hottest team in baseball has nothing to play for, but it remains to be seen if that will help the visiting Baltimore Orioles when they face the Tampa Bay Rays in the second of a three-game series Tuesday. The Rays, despite winning 11 of their last 12 games, were eliminated from postseason contention Monday night when the Oakland Athletics beat Texas to clinch the last playoff spot and move into a tie with the Orioles for the American League wild card lead.

Monday's 5-3 loss snapped a four-game winning streak for Baltimore, which is one game behind the division-leading New York Yankees in the AL East. Division title aside, the Orioles have tons of incentive to win their last two games, particularly with the possibility of having to fly to Oakland for a one-game playoff because the Athletics hold the tiebreaker. Baltimore will send right-hander Miguel Gonzalez to the mound to oppose Tampa Bay's James Shields.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, MASN 2 (Baltimore), Sun Sports (Tampa Bay)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Miguel Gonzalez (8-4, 3.45 ERA) vs. Rays RH James Shields (15-9, 3.62)

Gonzalez won his second straight start last time out, holding Toronto to two runs on five hits in seven innings. He has pitched at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts and has gone 6-2 in that span. Gonzalez earned a no-decision against the Rays on Sept. 12, giving up two runs and six hits while walking a season high-tying five in six innings. He is 5-2 away from home in his rookie campaign.

Shields is seeking to match his career-high win total set last year. He did not factor in the decision last time out despite limiting the Chicago White Sox to two runs in 6 1/3 innings. Shields has won five consecutive starts at Tropicana Field, allowing a total of seven runs in that span. He is 9-6 in 23 career starts against the Orioles, but has split of pair of decisions this year, yielding 11 runs in 12 1/3 innings.

WALK-OFFS

1. Orioles RF Chris Davis has gone deep six times during a five-game home streak, the longest in franchise history since Reggie Jackson homered in six straight games in 1976.

2. Rays closer Fernando Rodney earned his 47th save with another scoreless appearance and his 0.61 ERA remains tied with the record set by Dennis Eckersley of the 1990 Oakland Athletics for lowest ERA by a reliever who pitched at least 50 innings.

3. Orioles C Matt Wieters hit his career-high 23rd home Monday, surpassing his previous high set last year

Cincinnati at St. Louis 8:15 PM ET (-125, O/U 7.5)

The St. Louis Cardinals can clinch a National League wild card berth by beating the Cincinnati Reds for the second consecutive night on Tuesday. The Cardinals are one win or one Los Angeles Dodgers loss away from returning to the postseason. The defending World Series champions have played superb baseball down the stretch and Monday’s victory was their 11th in 14 games. Cincinnati is tied with the Washington Nationals for best record in the National League. Manager Dusty Baker was back in the dugout for the Reds after missing 11 straight games because of a minor stroke and irregular heartbeat. Cincinnati needs to finish ahead of Washington to claim the top seed because the Nationals won the season series.

The St. Louis Cardinals can clinch a National League wild card berth by beating the Cincinnati Reds for the second consecutive night on Tuesday. The Cardinals are one win or one Los Angeles Dodgers loss away from returning to the postseason. The defending World Series champions have played superb baseball down the stretch and Monday’s victory was their 11th in 14 games. Cincinnati is tied with the Washington Nationals for best record in the National League.

Manager Dusty Baker was back in the dugout for the Reds after missing 11 straight games because of a minor stroke and irregular heartbeat. Cincinnati needs to finish ahead of Washington to claim the top seed because the Nationals won the season series. Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips (groin) was in the lineup and had a run-scoring single one day after leaving a game early. St. Louis outfielder Carlos Beltran remains three short of his eighth 100-RBI campaign but has three homers in eight career at-bats against Reds starter Mat Latos.

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, FS Ohio (Cincinnati), FS Midwest (St. Louis)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Reds RH Mat Latos (13-4, 3.52 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Chris Carpenter (0-1, 3.27)

Latos has won three straight decisions and his last loss came when he was roughed up by the Cardinals on Aug. 24. He gave up seven runs and nine hits in five innings and that was only his second-poorest outing against St. Louis this season. He gave up eight runs and nine hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Cardinals on April 18. Latos is 1-4 with a 10.24 ERA in six career starts against St. Louis. He is 0-2 with a 9.77 ERA in three starts this season.

Carpenter is making his third start since returning from major shoulder surgery. He has allowed two runs in each of his previous two outings. Carpenter has dominated Cincinnati over his career, compiling a 14-4 mark and 2.48 ERA in 23 starts.

WALK-OFFS

1. Cincinnati 1B Joey Votto is batting .400 with two homers in 35 career at-bats against Carpenter.

2. Cardinals OF Matt Holliday had two hits Monday and is batting .345 against Cincinnati this season.

3. Reds OF Ryan Ludwick (groin) was in the starting lineup for the first time since Sept. 19 but left in the sixth inning during a double switch.

Texas at Oakland 10:05 PM ET (+150, 7.5)

The Texas Rangers have enjoyed sole possession of first place in the American League West since April 9, but that could change if they lose a second straight game to the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday. Oakland won the series opener Monday to clinch a postseason berth and move within a game of the Rangers for the division title. The Athletics, who must win the remaining two games to win the division, also climbed into a tie with Baltimore for the wild card lead. Oakland has won four straight and six of seven. The Rangers have a decided edge in the pitching matchup, sending 18-game winner Matt Harrison to the mound against Travis Blackley, who has pitched a total of three innings in his last two starts.

The Texas Rangers have enjoyed sole possession of first place in the American League West since April 9, but that could change if they lose a second straight game to the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday. Oakland won the series opener Monday to clinch a postseason berth and move within a game of the Rangers for the division title. The Athletics, who must win the remaining two games to win the division, also climbed into a tie with Baltimore for the wild card lead.

Oakland has won four straight and six of seven. The Athletics trailed the Rangers by 13 games on June 2 but have posted a major league-best 70-38 record since that time. Texas has lost five of its last seven but will wrap up its third straight AL West crown with one win. The Rangers have a decided edge in the pitching matchup, sending 18-game winner Matt Harrison to the mound against Travis Blackley, who has pitched a total of three innings in his last two starts.

TV: 10:05 p.m. ET, FS Southwest (Texas), CS California (Oakland)
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PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers LH Matt Harrison (18-10, 3.26 ERA) vs. Athletics LH Travis Blackley (5-4, 4.25)

Harrison beat Blackley and Oakland in his last start, although he was not exceptionally sharp in giving up four runs on seven hits in six innings. He is 2-0 in three starts against the Athletics this season to improve to 6-1 with a 4.13 ERA in 12 appearances (nine starts) against them. Harrison has been outstanding on the road this season, logging a 10-6 record and 3.03 ERA in 17 starts.

Blackley's last two spot starts have been a disaster. He lasted only one inning against the Rangers on Thursday, giving up five runs on five hits - including two homers. He wasn't much better in his previous outing against the New York Yankees, getting yanked after surrendering four runs on five hits in only two innings.

WALK-OFFS

1. Harrison can become the first left-hander in franchise history to win 19 games.

2. The Athletics are a season-high 24 games over .500. They haven't been that many games over .500 since the end of the 2006 season - the last time they made the playoffs..

3. Oakland RHP Grant Balfour has converted 16 consecutive save opportunities since reclaiming the closer's role in mid-August.

San Francisco at LA Dodgers 10:10 PM ET (-140, O/U 7.5)

The Los Angeles Dodgers will learn early in their game Tuesday whether they still have a shot at the second National League wild card spot. The Cardinals clinched at least a tie for the second NL wild card with a 4-2 win over Cincinnati on Monday, which means Los Angeles will be eliminated from the postseason with one more loss or a St. Louis victory. The Cardinals’ game Tuesday against the Reds begins approximately two hours before the Dodgers face the visiting San Francisco Giants.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will learn early in their game Tuesday whether they still have a shot at the second National League wild card spot. The Cardinals clinched at least a tie for the second NL wild card with a 4-2 win over Cincinnati on Monday, which means Los Angeles will be eliminated from the postseason with one more loss or a St. Louis victory. The Cardinals’ game Tuesday against the Reds begins approximately two hours before the Dodgers face the visiting San Francisco Giants. Los Angeles has matched its longest winning streak of the season at six games, while the Giants are merely getting ready for the postseason after clinching the NL West last week.

After slumping in early September, Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez has been on a tear in recent weeks. He went 2-for-4 on Monday to extend his hitting streak to 13 games, and he has exactly two hits in seven of his last eight games. The Giants are in danger of losing their first road series since July 6-8, but they’re more focused on preparing for the first game of the NL Division Series against either Washington or Cincinnati. Matt Cain will start game one on his normal four days of rest after pitching five innings on Monday.

TV: 10:10 p.m. ET, CS Bay Area (San Francisco), KCAL (Los Angeles)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants LH Barry Zito (14-8, 4.19 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Chris Capuano (12-11, 3.69)

Zito is making a strong push for the Giants’ postseason rotation, allowing six runs over 24 2/3 innings through his last four outings. He is 8-10 with a 3.74 ERA in 25 career games against the Dodgers, including 2-2 with a 2.55 ERA in four outings this season. Andre Ethier is 7-for-41 (.171) with nine strikeouts against Zito in his career.

Capuano recorded his first win since Aug. 12 on Thursday against the Padres, giving up one run in 5 1/3 innings. The strong outing was a surprise for Capuano, who was 0-3 with a 6.13 ERA in his previous seven starts. He is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two starts against San Francisco this season.

WALK-OFFS

1. Giants 2B Marco Scutaro has hit safely in a career-best 18 games, giving him the longest active hitting streak in the majors.

2. Los Angeles starters have allowed only two runs in their last 26 innings and have posted a 1.24 ERA in the team’s last 10 games dating to Sept. 21.

3. Giants catcher Buster Posey, who leads the NL in batting with a .336 average, left Monday’s game as a precaution with back spasms.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-02-2012, 08:16 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, October 2

National League

Atlanta at Pittsburgh, 7:05 ET
Hanson: Atlanta 6-14 SU revenging a loss as a road favorite
Correia: 26-10 Over in home games

Philadelphia at Washington, 7:05 ET
Rosenberg: Philadelphia 19-28 SU off 3+ division games
Gonzalez: 15-5 TSR in night games

NY Mets at Miami, 7:10 ET
Dickey: 9-2 TSR away pitching off BB team losses
Turner: Miami 3-16 SU as a home udnerdog of +125 to +150

Houston at Chicago Cubs, 8:05 ET
Norris: Houston 7-31 SU off 4+ road games
Volstad: 9-1 Over after allowing 0 walks last start

San Diego at Milwaukee, 8:10 ET
Kelly: San Diego 14-5 Over away revening BB losses
Thornburg: Milwaukee 26-8 SU at home off BB Unders

Cincinnati at St. Louis, 8:15 ET
Latos: 14-4 TSR on Tuesdays
Carpenter: 6-14 TSR pitching off BB team wins

Colorado at Arizona, 9:40 ET
Chacin: Colorado 15-34 SU vs. left-handed starters
Corbin: Arizona 15-6 Over at home revenging a loss as a home favorite

San Francisco at LA Dodgers, 10:10 ET
Zito: San Francisco 32-13 SU after scoring 2 runs or less
Capuano: Dodgers 8-2 Under off 4+ division wins

American League

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Peavy: White Sox 10-0 SU off a division win by 6+ runs
Masterson: Cleveland 1-6 SU off a division loss by 8+ runs

Minnesota at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Swarzak: Minnesota 1-6 SU in October
Jenkins: Toronto 44-25 Over on Tuesdays

Boston at NY Yankees, 7:05 ET
Lester: Boston 6-19 SU revenging 3+ losses
Phelps: Yankees 10-2 SU after hitting 6+ extra-base hits

Baltimore at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Gonzalez: 7-2 TSR vs. division opponents
Shields: 25-9 Under on Tuesdays

Detroit at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
Fister: 12-31 TSR in road games
Guthrie: Kansas City 12-4 SU revenging 5+ losses

Texas at Oakland, 10:05 ET
Harrison: 13-5 Under in night games
Blackley: Oakland 9-2 SU off 6+ division games

LA Angels at Seattle, 10:10 ET
Haren: 14-23 TSR vs. division opponents
Iwakuma: Seattle 19-6 SU after losing 6 or 7 of their last 8 games

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