NFL WEek 5

[roccodean]

getting them in early before lines move

2* St. Louis over Arizona (probable upgrade to 3*)
Sharp money will be on St. Lou, but public will be on Arizona. I would wait to see where this line goes after the public speaks which will be close to game time. I would bet it if you see it drop anymore.

2* Miami +4.5 over Cin (probable upgrade to 3*)

2* Cleveland +10 over NYG

1* NYJ over Houston (possible upgrade to 2*)
When the public speaks Monday night they will be all over Houson so I would wait for this line to keep climbing.

[roccodean]

St. Louis upgraded to 4* !!
It's my biggest play of the year so far with the Rams as a 4*. Arizona is coming off a tough fought OT win and now is traveling on a very short week to St. Louis. On the other hand, the Rams are off a home dog win. This win puts them in position for a 61% ATS trend (over 326 games). Arizona is 4-0 and their defense is above average (9th vs the rush in YPR and 14 in YPPA), but their offense is terrible. They are 2nd to last in YPR and 25th in YPPA. The Rams are slightly below average statistically, but the schedule and trends are so strong on them they are a 4*!

[LeRoy]

GL Rocco GOOO!!!! RAMS

[yabmane]

GL Rocco. I'm riding with you.

[Dat Boi E]

gl rocc

[roccodean]

thanks boys...got them at +1.5

[roccodean]

2* Indy +7 over GB
The stats simply don't support GB being a TD road favorite. If you just look at the stats and cover up the team name they are simply mediocre. Offensively, they are 18th in YPR and 20th in YPPA and on D they are 24th in run D and 15th in pass D. Indy is slightly worse statistically, but this does not warrant them being a 7 point home dog. They are off a bye and I thnk they will get an emotional boost from their coaches health situation. Give me the value on the Colts.

[roccodean]

1* KC +6.5
After KC got embarrassed last week at home, I see them coming fired up for this game. KC is 1st in the league in YPR and should be able to control the line of scrimmage and cover the big spread here. There is a 94-47 ATS trend favoring the Chiefs based on their home dog loss last week. KC is an astounding -13 )with 8 fumbles) in TO ratio which is a big reason they are losing, and this is unlikely to continue (if they continued at this rate they would be the 2nd most in history,the most is -63). TO's are one of the biggest factors that determines game. Teams +1 in TO battle are 75% SU and if they are +3 they are 95% SU. The Chiefs have actually outgained their opponents by an average of 85 yards/game. Ill take the Chiefs with the points.

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco

[roccodean]

Added Jax +6.5 as 1*

[roccodean]

got NYJ +10 as 1*

[roccodean]

Looking forward to week 6 after 5-2 this week and 12-3 since week 1. thanks guys!

[10DimeBry]

great job rocco.

keep it rollin