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**StarDust Bum** · 10-01-2012, 06:52 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

October 1, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Astros are 0-13 since April 28, 2012 on the road after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $1300 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Royals are 0-12-2 OU since May 19, 2011 as a home dog when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher, if they didn’t go to extra innings last game for a net profit of $1210 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Cardinals are 9-0 OU since June 14, 2011 when Jaime Garcia starts as a favorite vs a team that lost their starters last two starts for a net profit of $905 when playing the over.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- C.C Sabathia has produced a team record of 16-0 (4.8 rpg) since May 2009 as a favorite when his team is in the first game of a series with no rest, if he allowed fewer than 7 runs in his last start. 2-1 this season.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Cardinals are 7-0 since September 03, 2011 when Jaime Garcia starts as a home favorite after August for a net profit of $700.

-- The Angels are 6-0 since April 30, 2012 when C.J. Wilson starts vs a team that lost their starters last three starts for a net profit of $600.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-01-2012, 06:54 PM

Hot & Not

October 1, 2012

Say what you want about the extra wild card added to this season’s race for the playoffs, but it’s no doubt added more excitement for all MLB bettors with both races coming down to the wire. There might only be three games left in the regular season, but there’s a ton still to decide. The following is a look at which teams have risen to the occasion and closed shop as we near the second season.
Money-Makers

Detroit Tigers (6-1, $466): As up and down the Tigers have had over the course of the last six months, it’s nice to finally see this supposed runaway AL Central winner playing its best ball of the season when it matters most. Either trailing or holding a two or less game lead in the division, manager Jim Leyland’s squad are a win or a White Sox loss away from wrapping up the division and heading back to the postseason in successive campaigns for the first time since 1934-35.

On The Docket: Detroit will attempt to put an end to their disappointing regular season effort and charge full steam ahead into the second season by snagging at least one win from the Royals over the next three days. They just swept KC in four straight at home last week and have won six of their L/9 away from Comerica Park ($234).

Tampa Bay Rays (5-1, $408): On paper, it looks to be too little too late for manager Joe Maddon’s Rays whose elimination number now sits at one with only three home games remaining against the AL East or Wild Card hopeful Baltimore Orioles. Even if they hold up their end of the bargain and win their next three, they’ll be partaking in some late night scoreboard watching in hopes of Texas going into Oakland and busting out the brooms.

On The Docket: The Rays have dropped nine of their 15 overall clashes with the Orioles, and they’ve split the six overall match-ups with them at home. Making the Rays postseason hopes all the more grim is the fact that they only sit 10-games over. 500 as a host and have cost their MLB betting backers $511 in those contests. That said, Tampa’s won 10 of its L/11 overall and each of its L/5 in the Trop.

Los Angeles Dodgers (5-1, $393): Faced with a similar fate as the Rays but not as dire, the Dodgers currently sit two games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the play-in Wild Card slot. With that the case, manager Don Mattingly’s troops must at the very least win two of their next three at home over the next three days and hope the Redbirds drop two of three in their final home series of the regular season. If that occurs, LA will host a one-game Wild Card-determining tiebreaker.

On The Docket: The Dodgers will enter Game 1 of Monday night’s crucial home series with the current NL West-champion San Francisco Giants winners of five in a row, but that came against the sub .500 Padres and Rockies. LA’s just 2-7 as a host versus the L/9 +.500 opponents they’ve faced and have dropped five of the L/6 versus their hated rivals.

Honorable Mentions: Oakland A’s (5-2, $364), Atlanta Braves (5-1, $331), Cleveland Indians (4-2, $293), New York Mets (4-3, $161), ), San Francisco Giants (4-2, $138), St. Louis Cardinals (4-2, $105), Los Angeles Angels (4-2, $102)

Money-Burners

Boston Red Sox (0-5, -$500): Thankfully the end of the regular season has arrived for the Boston Red Sox who are now the not so proud owners of the worst money mark in all of baseball having cost their wagering supporters a whopping -$3,385 on the year. The first year of the Bobby Valentine era was an epic fail in Beantown as the club could possibly finish up 20-games ‘under’ its predicted win total of 89’.

On The Docket: The BoSox could possibly have a say in the final standings with them going into the Bronx for their final three games with the Yankees in a dogfight with the Orioles for the AL East pennant. However, Boston has tallied just one win in its L/10 games played and has dropped 39 of its L/55 overall. Crazier things have happened, but it seems far-fetched that they’ll even be remotely competitive here with reservations to golf courses having already been made weeks ago.

Kansas City Royals (1-6, -$481): I have a bone to pick with Kansas City. They were one of the teams I targeted as possibly being a huge money-maker this year. With the gobs of young talent the team possessed and the way Manager Ned Yost’s squad closed out 2011, it seemed like a no brainer. Yet 159 games into the season, KC has a year-long deficit of -$267 and though it stands 33-36 within the division and gave the White Sox headaches all season long, it never once challenged for division supremacy.

On The Docket: The Royals will not only have the few that pack the stands at Kauffman Stadium in their corner over the next three days, but they’ll also have the White Sox rooting them on in hopes that they pull off the sweep. While KC either swept or got swept in its two home series versus the Tigers, the odds of another broom job occurring for either team over the next three days are extremely long.

Chicago White Sox (2-5, -$462): Nobody expected the White Sox to be a player this season. Not even the linemakers who set their season win ‘total’ at 75 ½ games. While the Palehose toppled that tally by registering 83 wins heading into their final series of the regular season, missing out on the postseason will be a tough pill to swallow for South Siders after their beloved team held a lead atop the division for a majority of the L/6 months.

On The Docket: For Paul Konerko and his mates to have any shot of catapulting themselves into the second season, they must win all three of their games at Progressive Field – a venue they’re 4-2 in to date – and hope the Royals do them a solid by pulling off an unthinkable sweep of the Tigers with a trip to the playoffs and the AL Central pennant on the line. If that scenario fails to occur, Chicago will have only itself to blame after dropping 10 of its L/12 games.

Dishonorable Mentions: Seattle Mariners (1-5, -$315), San Diego Padres (2-4, -$207), Pittsburgh Pirates (2-5, -$291), Chicago Cubs (1-5, -$329), Miami Marlins (1-5, -$363)

**StarDust Bum** · 10-01-2012, 06:56 PM

MLB Betting Notes

October 1, 2012

With only a few days before the season ends, we can look back over the first 159 games and reflect back on what might be the greatest story of the season. We’ve had seven no-hitters, the Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera trying for the first “Triple Crown” since 1967 and an Angels’ rookie in Mike Trout that took our breath away nightly with one spectacular play after another.
But when I look back, what brings the biggest smile to my face is the rise of Oakland A’s and Baltimore Orioles, while at the same time watching big money teams like the Red Sox and Phillies take a season off.

At the beginning of the season, only the Astros at 300/1 had longer odds to win the World Series than the A’s at 200/1. Oakland’s ‘over-under’ season win total was 71 ½, now here they are, on their way to a Wild Card game with a 91-68 record doing the impossible with the second-lowest payroll in baseball.

The LVH currently has the A’s at 16/1 odds to win the World Series and even if they go no further than the Wild Card game this week, it has been a blast watching them daily.

Baltimore was 100/1 to start the season and it’s currently in a battle with the Yankees for the AL East, which is huge because the winner doesn’t have to play in the one-and-done Wild Card game. They were only expected to win 69 ½ games this season, less than the A’s, only because they play in the tough AL East with the mighty Yankees, Rays and Red Sox.

Before the season started, you could have also had 80/1 odds on the Orioles to win the division with a decision that will be posted on Wednesday.

With three games to go, the Orioles are 16/1 to win the World Series. They have secured their first winning season since 1997, which was also the last time they made the postseason. They have also done it with a payroll of just over $81 million, which is in the bottom third of MLB salaries. It’s not quite the $55 million of the A’s, but it’s still worth noting because three of the top four salaries in baseball will not be making the playoffs.

The Phillies ($174M), Red Sox ($173M) and Angels ($154M) will be watching two teams in the postseason that don’t have a combined salary as fat as any of theirs. It’s a nice change!

Outside of the Orioles possibly winning the AL East, most of the divisions fell into place with the favorites winning with the exception being Baltimore‘s neighbor, the Washington Nationals. The Nats were 15/2 to win the division behind the Phillies at heavy ¼ odds (Bet $400 to win $100), the Braves at 4/1 and the Marlins at 6/1.

Remember the Marlins hype with the new stadium, high priced free-agent signings, and Showtime following them around doing reality TV, how’d that all work out? Try last place at 67-92 through Sunday’s games.

The LVH Super Book did a wonderful job of providing the most intense list of odds in Nevada for the 2012 season with hundreds of Players Props. Here’s a look at some of them fared:

Most Home Runs - 42 ½: Cabrera and Josh Hamilton each have 43.

Most RBIs - 128 ½: Cabrera (136) has topped the number with Hamilton close at 127.

Most Hits - 213 ½: Derek Jeter currently has 213, no other player has topped 200 yet.

Most Stolen Bases - 61 ½: Mike Trout leads this Earl Weaver era of waiting for the bomb with only 48 steals.

Most Losses - 17: Ubaldo Jimenez has 17, but won’t get the opportunity to break to the push because he won’t be starting again.

Most Wins - 21 ½: Gio Gonzalez starts Tuesday and could win his 22nd game of the year making the OVER the winner here.

Most Saves - 47 ½: Jim Johnson has 50 on the season for Baltimore.

The one individual player prop that received a lot of attention was Ryan Braun with a home run total posted at 30 ½. He won the MVP last season and came in with all kinds of suspicions that he was juiced up, but he went out and had an even better year in 2012 with 41 home runs, 112 RBI’s and a .320 average.

Adam Dunn had a home run total posted at 18 ½ after looking like career was over last season, but he pounded out 41 for the White Sox this season.

Toronto’s Jose Bautista had hit 97 home runs over the past two seasons and had a total of 35 ½ posted for 2012, which seemed low. But the main variable in these props is staying healthy and Bautista only got 332 at-bats and went deep only 27 times.

The Angels highest-paid player in Albert Pujols had a home run total posted at 35 ½ and managed only 30 in his debut season in Los Angeles.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-01-2012, 06:58 PM

Boston tries to spoil New York's division hopes

BOSTON RED SOX (69-90)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (92-67)

First pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -215, Boston +195, Total: 8

Long since eliminated from playoff contention, the Red Sox will look to play spoiler to their bitter rival Yankees, who sit tied atop the AL East with the Orioles.

Although the Yanks have not secured the division crown, they have a Wild Card berth under their belts at the least. And as they fight for the AL East title, they will receive an important boost from Mark Teixeira, who is expected to return for the first time since September 8 when he re-injured his calf with an ill-advised head-first slide into first base. Ace CC Sabathia takes the mound for New York on Monday with a 3.42 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 14-6 record in 2012. But the Red Sox have destroyed him over the past two years, saddling him with a 1-4 record and 6.81 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in these six starts. That includes a six-inning, six-run performance from earlier this year. Clay Buchholz has a 4.22 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 11-7 for Boston, and he has been one of their lone bright spots lately with a 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his past three starts. And no matter how bad Boston has been this season, it never has trouble playing hard at Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox are 15-9 (.625) over the past three seasons in the Bronx. Take BOSTON and the heavy money in this one.

This rare five-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Red Sox:

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (BOSTON) - stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season, after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games. (34-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.7%, +39.8 units. Rating = 5*).

Sabathia comes into this game hot off two consecutive eight-inning performances, tallying 21 strikeouts and allowing just two earned runs between the outings. Going deep into games is no problem for him, averaging 7.1 innings per start on the year. He is even better at home, where he has a 2.73 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and tallies 7.4 innings per start. Should he need to be pulled early though, the Yankees bullpen is usually happy to oblige with stellar support. New York relievers have a 3.48 ERA on the season with 51 saves in 64 chances (80%) and a 23-17 record. Hopefully for New York fans, the pitching and the addition of Teixeira can reverse the team’s trend of alternating wins and losses for the past nine games.

While Sabathia is better at home, Buchholz is much nastier on the road where he has a 3.77 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 5-3 record. He also goes deep into games, albeit not as deep as Sabathia, averaging 6.7 innings per start on the year. Boston relievers have been surprisingly solid for them with a 21-20 record this year and 3.77 ERA. They could be needed, given Buchholz’s career struggles against New York, with a 2-4 record, 5.84 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in eight career starts. In the last one, he really hurt his numbers, yielding five home runs in a 6-2 loss. The Red Sox have lost five in a row and nine of 10, but are such heavy underdogs here, they deserve the action.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-01-2012, 07:00 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 1

Hot pitchers
-- Maholm is 1-0, 1.35 in his last couple starts.
-- Lannan is 4-0, 4.23 in five starts this season.
-- Marcum is 1-0, 2.25 in his last couple starts.
-- Arroyo is 3-2, 2.87 in his last five starts. JGarcia is 2-0, 2.27 in his last three starts.
-- Cain is 3-0, 1.32 in his last four starts.

-- Santiago lasted only 12.1 IP in three starts, but he does have a 2.92 RA.
-- Cobb is 3-1, 3.22 in his last six starts.
-- Sabathia is 1-0, 1.13 in his last two starts.
-- BChen is 1-1, 1.35 in his last couple starts.
-- Parker is 3-1, 2.31 in his last five starts.
-- FHernandez is 0-0, 1.93 in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Locke is 0-3, 7.50 in five starts this season.
-- Kendrick is 1-2, 7.24 in his last three starts.
-- JJohnson is 0-3, 4.26 in his last three starts. Familia is making his first start; he's allowed 8 runs in 8.1 IP in seven relief appearances this season.
-- Harrell is 0-3, 4.35 in his last seven starts. Berken is 0-2, 7.71 in his three starts this season.
-- Richard has a 6.33 RA in his last four starts, but San Diego won eight of his last ten starts anyway.
-- Miley is 2-2, 6.21 in five starts this month. Pomeranz is 1-2, 6.14 in his last six starts.
-- Harang is 1-3, 4.11 in his last six starts.

-- Kluber is 1-1, 5.82 in his last four starts.
-- Laffey is 1-1, 5.29 in his last four starts. EVasquez is 0-2, 5.88 in five starts this season.
-- WChen is 0-3, 6.21 in his last five starts.
-- Buchholz is 0-4, 4.88 in his last seven starts.
-- Porcello is 0-6, 5.91 in his last eight starts.
-- MPerez is 0-2, 17.36 in his last couple starts.
-- Wilson is 0-1, 6.92 in his last three starts.

Hot Teams
-- Atlanta won 11 of its last 14 games.
-- Washington is 6-0 in game following its last six losses.
-- Mets won seven of their last ten games, lost last two.
-- Astros are 5-4 in their last nine games.
-- Cincinnati won nine of its last twelve games. Cardinals won 10 of their last 13 games.
-- Arizona won five of its last seven home games.
-- Giants won 14 of their last 17 games. Dodgers won their last five.

-- Indians won five of their last seven games.
-- Orioles won 11 of their last 14 games. Tampa Bay won 10 of its last 11.
-- Bronx won 13 of its last 18 games.
-- Detroit won six of its last seven games.
-- A's won 15 of their last 20 home games.
-- Angels won 11 of their last 16 games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost 16 of their last 22 games.
-- Phillies lost five of their last seven games.
-- Marlins lost ten of their last twelve games.
-- Cubs lost ten of their last twelve games.
-- Brewers lost six of their last nine games. San Diego lost four of five.
-- Colorado lost its last three games, scoring one run.

-- White Sox lost ten of their last twelve games.
-- Blue Jays lost 14 of their last 20 games. Minnesota lost three of four.
-- Red Sox lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Royals lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Rangers lost four of their last six games.
-- Mariners lost 12 of their last 16 games.

Totals
-- Under is 16-7-2 in Atlanta's last 25 games.
-- Over is 8-0-1 in last nine Washington games.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in Miami's last eleven games.
-- Six of Cubs' last eight games went over total.
-- Over is 19-10-1 in last 30 Milwaukee games.
-- 15 of last 19 Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
-- 16 of last 21 Colorado games went over the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Giant games went over the total.

-- Under is 8-5 in White Sox' last thirteen games.
-- Three of last four Minnesota road games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Over is 5-2-2 in last nine Bronx games.
-- Seven of last eight Kansas City games went over total.
-- Over is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Oakland games.
-- Over is 5-0-1 in Angels' last six games.

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