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  • The Bum's Sunday's MLB Best Bets !

    Padres Close Series Against Lincecum & Giants

    The San Francisco Giants know they are going to be participating in the postseason for the first time since their World Series win two years ago. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres know they won’t be in the playoffs as their postseason drought extends to six years.

    Nonetheless, there is a bit of intrigue attached to the conclusion of this weekend’s three-game series at Petco Park on Padres’ Fan Appreciation Day.

    The finale of this weekend set on Sunday features an interesting pitching duel between a pair of decorated hurlers who have battled inconsistency this season. For Bruce Bochy’s Giants, it will be former two-time Cy young winner Tim Lincecum (10-15, 5.15 ERA) on the mound, while Bud Black’s Padres counter with Edinson Volquez (11-11, 4.13 ERA). Don Best is sending this matchup out as a pick 'em.

    First pitch at Petco Park on Sunday will be at 4:05 p.m. (ET). Those with the MLB TV package will be spoiled for choice with either the legendary Dick Enberg at the microphone for FOX Sports San Diego, or the entertaining Duane Kuiper-Mike Krukow combo on Comcast Sports Bay Area.

    Although the Giants have long since clinched the NL West, there remains a bit of urgency in this final handful of regular-season games as they try to improve their position in the race for home-field edge in the NL playoffs. Entering the weekend, San Francisco was three games behind Cincinnati and four games behind Washington with just six games to play. Unless the Giants make up the deficit, they won’t have home-field edge when the NLDS commences, likely against either the Nationals or Reds.

    Moreover, Sunday’s matchup is an important one for Lincecum, whose inconsistencies suggest he cannot be assured of a spot in Bochy’s postseason rotation. Particularly troubling to Bochy was Lincecum’s last outing on September 25 at home vs. the Diamondbacks when he surrendered seven runs on five hits and four walks in just four innings of work of an eventual 7-2 loss.

    Those control issues have recurred throughout the season for Lincecum, who seemed to eradicate the problems during the summer only to be bitten by the “walk bug” again in recent weeks. Lincecum has surrendered 17 free passes in his last four starts covering 22 2/3 IP, raising concerns with Bochy and pitching coach Dave Righetti that some of the mechanical flaws they identified and earlier adjusted in Linceum’s delivery have indeed resurfaced.

    Prior to the loss to Arizona, and despite the recurrence of the walks, Lincecum’s recent efforts had not been too bad, as he had posted a 2.78 ERA in six previous starts, with the Giants winning five of those outings before the loss to the D-backs. But another effort similar to the meltdown last Tuesday vs. Arizona would cause Bochy and Righetti much angst heading into the playoffs.

    Some other Lincecum numbers from this season are also discouraging, including a 6.46 ERA on the road. Lincucum was also hit hard the last time he faced San Diego on July 25, allowing five runs and seven hits in just 4 2/3 IP of an eventual 6-3 loss.

    Overall, the Giants have lost two of Lincecum’s three starts this season vs. the Padres, though his career stats vs. San Diego (10-5 record, 2.28 ERA) are still very much on the positive side.

    Meanwhile, Lincecum’s San Diego counterpart Volquez, though also struggling with control issues earlier this season, has performed with a bit more consistency of late, and was extremely sharp in his last outing, working seven shutout innings last Tuesday vs. the Dodgers in an eventual 2-1 Padres win.

    Volquez, who will be making his last start of the 2012 campaign, also (like many Padres pitchers) has fared better at Petco Park than on the road this season, reflected in his 2.89 ERA at home in 2012.

    The ex-Red Volquez was also on the mark in his only previous start vs. the Giants this season, holding them to two runs and three hits while striking out eight over a solid seven innings of work on July 24 at AT&T Park, although the bullpen eventually betrayed the Padres in the ninth inning when Joe Thatcher surrendered the winning run in the Giants’ 3-2 win.

    Over five starts in his career, Volquez is 2-1 with a 5.54 ERA vs. San Francisco.

    As this series concludes, however, it’s worth noting that San Francisco has offered good value on the road in 2012, having stood 43-32 as a visitor entering this weekend set. (Maybe opening the postseason on the road won’t bother Bochy’s team too much.) The Giants had also won 14 of their last 21 at Petco and had not dropped a series in San Diego since April of 2010.

    In the five previous series between these teams this season, the Giants had also won two out of three on each occasion.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Diamond Trends - Sunday

    September 30, 2012

    SU TREND OF THE DAY:

    -- The Brewers are 18-0 since April 10, 2011 as a home 140+ favorite when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1800.

    OU TREND OF THE DAY:

    -- The Phillies are 8-0-1 OU since April 18, 2008 when Cole Hamels starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $800 when playing the over.

    STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

    -- The Braves are 20-0 since June 03, 2010 when Kris Medlen starts after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $2085.

    MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

    -- The Marlins are 4-21 since August 2010 in day games after a loss where they left more on base as a team than their opponent. 4-7 this season.

    TODAY’S TRENDS:

    -- The Phillies are 0-8 since May 18, 2006 when Cole Hamels starts on the road after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1020 when playing against.

    -- The White Sox are 7-0 since June 12, 2012 when Jose Quintana starts after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $762.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      MLB
      Armadillo's Write-Up

      Sunday, September 30

      Hot pitchers
      -- Hamels is 5-0, 2.87 in his last nine starts. Eovaldi is 0-0, 1.29 in his last two outings.
      -- Atlanta won Medlen's last 22 starts (9-0, 1.16 in 11 starts this year).
      -- Cueto is 2-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts. WRodriguez is 4-0, 3.28 in his last six outings.
      -- Lynn is 3-0, 0.93 in his last three starts.
      -- Lincecum is 5-0, 2.61 in his last five road starts. Volquez is 2-1, 3.44 in his last three outings.
      -- Collmenter is 4-0, 3.41 in his last five starts.

      -- Hughes is 3-1, 3.96 in his last four starts.
      -- Price is 3-0, 2.70 in his last four starts.
      -- Greinke is 5-0, 1.62 in his last seven starts. Darvish is 4-0, 1.70 in his last five outings. ESantana is 2-1, 2.36 in his last four starts. Holland is 2-0, 2.81 in his last five starts.
      -- Milone is 2-0, 3.52 in his last four starts. ERamirez has a 2.84 RA in his last five starts.

      Cold pitchers
      -- Mejia is 1-1, 5.63 in two starts this season.
      -- Lyles is 1-2, 5.70 in his last five starts. Fiers is 0-2, 8.03 in his last three.
      -- Detwiler is 1-1, 4.91 in his last four starts.
      -- De La Rosa is 0-1, 13.50 in two starts this season. Beckett is 0-2, 4.01 in his last four starts.
      -- Rusin is 0-1, 11.42 in his last couple starts.

      -- Alvarez is 2-3, 4.65 in his last five starts.
      -- ZStewart allowed 15 runs in 8.2 IP in his last two starts. Saunders is 0-2, 3.54 in his last three starts.
      -- Quintana is 0-1, 7.45 in his last three starts; he left his last start in the first inning due to injury/illness.
      -- ASanchez is 2-2, 3.49 in his last four starts. Hendriks is 1-1, 6.92 in his last five starts.
      -- Hochevar is 1-3, 8.89 in his last five starts. McAllister is 0-4, 6.91 in his last six starts.

      Hot Teams
      -- Cincinnati won eight of its last eleven games.
      -- Atlanta won 10 of its last 13 games. Mets won six of their last eight.
      -- Cardinals won nine of their last 12 games.
      -- Astros are 4-4 in their last eight games.
      -- Arizona won five of its last six home games.
      -- Padres won 10 of last 14 at home. Giants won 13 of last 16 overall.
      -- Dodgers won five of their last six games; Colorado won four of six.

      -- Bronx won 12 of its last 17 games.
      -- Orioles won ten of their last thirteen games.
      -- Indians won four of their last six games.
      -- Angels won ten of their last fourteen games.
      -- Detroit won five of its last six games.
      -- Tampa Bay won nine of its last ten games.
      -- A's won 14 of their last 19 home games.

      Cold Teams
      -- Pirates lost 15 of their last 21 games.
      -- Marlins lost nine of their last 11 games. Phillies lost five of last seven.
      -- Brewers lost five of their last eight games.
      -- Nationals lost five of their last eight road games.
      -- Cubs lost ten of their last eleven games.

      -- Blue Jays lost 13 of their last 19 games.
      -- Red Sox lost eight of their last nine games.
      -- Royals lost six of their last seven games.
      -- Minnesota lost six of its last eight home games.
      -- Rangers lost three of their last four games.
      -- White Sox lost nine of their last eleven games.
      -- Mariners are 4-11 in their last fifrteen games.

      Totals
      -- 14 of last 18 Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
      -- Under is 6-3-1 in Miami's last ten games.
      -- Under is 16-6-2 in Atlanta's last 24 games.
      -- Over is 19-9-1 in last 29 Milwaukee games.
      -- Over is 7-0-1 in last eight Washington games.
      -- Six of Cubs' last seven games went over total.
      -- Eight of last eleven Giant games went over the total.
      -- 15 of last 20 Colorado games went over the total.

      -- Over is 4-2-2 in last eight Bronx games.
      -- Five of last seven Boston games stayed under total.
      -- Six of last seven Kansas City games went over total.
      -- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels' last four games.
      -- Ten of last fourteen Detroit games went over the total.
      -- Eight of last twelve White Sox games stayed under total.
      -- Over is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Oakland games.

      Umpires
      -- Cin-Pitt-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Carlson games.
      -- Hst-Mil-- Underdogs are 9-4 in last thirteen West games.
      -- NY-Atl-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Demuth games.
      -- Phil-Mia-- Six of last eight Scott games went over the total.
      -- Wsh-StL-- Road team won nine of last ten Guccione games, with last four going over the total.
      -- Chi-Az-- Six of last seven Bellino games stayed under total.
      -- SF-SD-- Nine of last eleven Cederstrom games stayed under.
      -- Col-LA-- Last seven Carapazza games stayed under.

      -- NY-Tor-- Favorites won last five Diaz games.
      -- Det-Min-- Road team won eight of last ten Wolf games.
      -- Sea-A's-- Eight of last nine Kellogg games stayed under.
      -- Bos-Blt-- Home side won eight of last nine Cuzzi games.
      -- KC-Cle-- Tumpane is a rookie ump; not enough data on him.
      -- TB-Chi-- Visiting team won five of last six Hallion games.
      -- LA-Tex-- 17 of last 21 Joyce games went over the total. Underdogs won six of last nine Hoye games.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        MLB

        Sunday, September 30

        Game Score Status Pick Amount

        Kansas City - 1:05 PM ET Kansas City +124 500
        Cleveland - Over 9 500

        LA Angels - 1:05 PM ET LA Angels +115 500
        Texas -

        NY Yankees - 1:07 PM ET NY Yankees -199 500
        Toronto - Under 9 500

        Philadelphia - 1:10 PM ET Miami +149 500
        Miami - Over 7.5 500

        NY Mets - 1:35 PM ET NY Mets +278 500
        Atlanta - Over 7 500

        Cincinnati - 1:35 PM ET Cincinnati -136 500
        Pittsburgh - Over 7.5 500

        Tampa Bay - 2:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -160 500
        Chi. White Sox - Over 7.5 500

        Detroit - 2:10 PM ET Minnesota +161 500
        Minnesota - Under 9 500

        Washington - 2:15 PM ET St. Louis -133 500
        St. Louis - Under 8 500

        Seattle - 4:05 PM ET Oakland -188 500
        Oakland - Under 7.5 500

        San Francisco - 4:05 PM ET San Diego -113 500
        San Diego - Over 7.5 500

        Chi. Cubs - 4:10 PM ET Arizona -203 500
        Arizona - Under 9.5 500

        Colorado - 4:10 PM ET Colorado +215 500
        LA Dodgers - Over 7.5 500
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          Good Luck today Bum

          Comment

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