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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thursday, September 27 - Monday, October 1)

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  • #16
    NFL

    Week 4

    Sunday, September 30


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    Saints at Packers: What bettors need to know
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    New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-9, 53)

    Drew Brees recently said the replacement referees were “an embarrassment to the league.” Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers agreed. The good news is the regular referees will be back on the field - the NFLRA and the league reached an agreement late Wednesday - when the Packers try to rebound and send the the New Orleans Saints to just their second 0-4 start in 16 seasons Sunday at Lambeau Field. Brees’ Saints may be searching for answers after blowing an 18-point lead to fall to 0-3 last week, but the Packers are feeling the biggest losers heading into their Week 4 matchup after being robbed of a win Monday night.

    Green Bay was leading Seattle 12-7 when the replacement referees ruled that Golden Tate hauled in a Hail Mary and upheld the call upon review, despite visual evidence that showed M.D. Jennings clearly had made a game-clinching interception. The backlash quickly forced a deal between the league and the officials. This is the first meeting since the memorable 2011 season-opening shootout that was won by the Packers 42-34 thanks to a last-second goal-line stand.

    TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

    LINE: Packers -9, O/U 53

    WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s and sunny skies at Lambeau Field. Winds will be light out of east.

    ABOUT THE SAINTS (0-3): Who ‘Dat? The answer, lately, is everyone. The Saints, who are still dealing with the fallout of Bountygate, are 0-3 for the first time since 2007 after losing to Kansas City 27-24 in overtime last week. Brees, who signed a five-year, $100 million contract this summer, hasn’t looked the same without suspended head coach Sean Payton calling the plays, and the defense has been atrocious (league-worst 477.3 ypg). Brees broke his own completion percentage record last season (71.6), but is connecting on just 54.7 percent of his attempts, the lowest rate since he became a full-time starter. He has a pedestrian touchdown-to-interception ratio (7 TDs, 5 INTs). Brees’ main target has been running back Darren Sproles, who leads the team with 18 catches. The speedy Sproles failed to record a reception for the first time since 2010 last week. Meanwhile, TE Jimmy Graham has a touchdown catch in six straight games.

    ABOUT THE PACKERS (1-2): Green Bay is seething after having a game literally ripped away from it on Monday night. Several Packers players took to Twitter, bashing the league and the outcome. But they have other issues to address, mainly the fact that Rodgers has been sacked more times (16) than any quarterback after being taken down eight times in the first half of Monday’s loss. The poor protection has led to the Packers being ranked 24th in scoring (19.0). Like Brees, something is amiss about Rodgers as well. After throwing 45 touchdowns last season, the reigning league MVP has just three thus far. Green Bay’s defense is markedly improved, perhaps in part to Charles Woodson’s move to safety, and is No. 1 in the league against the pass (125.3 ypg). Linebacker Clay Matthews is well on his way to a bounce-back season, leading the league with six sacks.

    TRENDS:

    * Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
    * Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
    * Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
    * Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

    EXTRA POINTS:

    1. “(The) 13th man beat us tonight.” – a tweet from Green Bay tight end Tom Crabtree in reference to Seattle’s famed 12th man – the 13th man being the officials.

    2. The Saints are 2-9 on the road against the Packers.

    3. New Orleans didn’t record a single first down in its final 12 offensive snaps last week. Brees was 0-for-6 in the fourth quarter and overtime.


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    Comment


    • #17
      NFL weather watch: Six matchups threatened by rain

      NFL game weather and resulting stadium conditions can have a significant impact on player performance and the outcome of football games. Bettors should take weather conditions into consideration, especially when placing over/under wagers.

      Here are the matchups being threatened by inclement weather Sunday:

      New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (4, 48.5)

      Site: Ralph Wilson Stadium

      Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 60 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the north.

      San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (4, 41)

      Site: MetLife Stadium

      Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with a 30 percent of precipitation. Winds will blow out of the west at 5 mph.

      Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-7, 48.5)

      Site: Sports Authority Field at Mile High

      Forecasts are calling for mild temperatures in the low-70s with a slight 15 percent of rain. Winds will blow out of the north at 11 mph.

      Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (1, 44.5)

      Site: EverBank Field

      It will be a hot and humid day in Florida. Temperatures are expected to soar into the high-80s with a 60 percent chance thunderstorms throughout the afternoon. Winds will be light out of the east.

      Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 47.5)

      Site: Raymond James Stadium

      Forecasts are predicting temperatures in the high-80s with a 20 percent of thunderstorms in the Tampa area. Winds will blow out of the south at 10 mph.

      New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-1, 47)

      Forecasts suggest temperatures will dip into the high-50s for the Sunday nighter. There is also a 65 percent chance of showers and winds will blow out of the west at 7 mph

      Comment


      • #18
        NFL

        Week 4

        Monday, October 1


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        Tale of the tape: Bears at Cowboys
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        Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys.

        Offense


        Bears Pro Bowl RB Matt Forte resumed practicing this week after injuring his ankle against Green Bay in Week 2, but it's unknown how much - if at all - he'll play on Monday. Chicago's offense ranks 27th overall and 28th in passing with Jay Cutler at the helm. His passer rating of 58.6 is second worst among qualifiers, ahead of only Miami rookie Ryan Tannehill (58.3).

        Dallas could use a little more help from DeMarco Murray. The running back had 131 yards in a season-opening win over the Giants but has totaled just 82 over the past two games. The Cowboys offense has been sputtering lately, producing just two touchdowns in the past eight quarters. Tight end Jason Witten and wideout Dez Bryant have yet to record a TD reception this season.

        Edge: Tie


        Defense


        The Chicago defense recorded six of its league-best 14 sacks and forced two interceptions, one returned 45 yards for a TD by Major Wright in a convincing win over the Rams last week. The Bears boasts the sixth-ranked rushing defense, allowing only 76 yards per game and lead the league in third-down defense since Lovie Smith took over as coach. The Chicago stop unit has yielded first downs just 24.3 percent of the time this season on the oppositions’ third down.

        Dallas held Tampa Bay to just 166 total yards en route to a 16-10 victory and leads the NFL in fewest yards allowed (250 YPG). Safety Gerald Sensabaugh, who missed last week’s game with a calf straight, expects to play on Monday and will have a keen eye on Bears WR Brandon Marshall.

        Edge: Tie


        Special teams


        Bears special team’s coordinator Dave Toub said last week Devin Hester was close to breaking a return for a TD. Hester has had one kickoff return of at least 31 yards in each of the first three games and has punt returns of 19 and 23 yards.

        The last time the Bears allowed a punt return TD was against the host Cowboys in Week 2 of 2010, when then rookie Dez Bryant rumbled for a 62-yard score. Bryant has a 44-yard return this season but is averaging just 6.4 yards.

        Edge: Bears


        Word on the street


        "We've been around Tony (Romo) long enough that we can tell, based on his facial expressions, how he's feeling. He shows his emotions to us. So he doesn't have to say anything. We see what he's going through." – Cowboys offensive guard Nate Livings on the recent lack of protection the unit has provided QB Tony Romo.

        “We try to get him the ball. It doesn’t always work out, like that one in the end zone (against the Rams on Sunday) that was designed for him. Basically it was a one-man route. We’re trying to find ways to get him the ball. Sometimes the coverage dictates we’re going to go to him, sometimes it doesn’t.” - Bears offensive coordinator Mike Tice on Hester’s recent frustration with his role within the team's offense.


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        Comment


        • #19
          NFL

          Week 4

          Monday, October 1


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          Bears at Cowboys: What bettors need to know
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          Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 41.5)

          Tony Romo and Jay Cutler have come under fire for less-than-stellar performances thus far this season. While their respective stat lines haven't been aesthetically pleasing, the end results have still been promising. Both quarterbacks will look to guide their respective teams to an impressive 3-1 start when Romo's Dallas Cowboys host the Chicago Bears on Monday night. The clubs rode solid defensive efforts to their victories last week as Dallas held Tampa Bay to just 166 total yards en route to a 16-10 victory. Not to be outdone, Chicago benefited from six of its NFL-leading 14 sacks in last week's 23-6 triumph over St. Louis. The Cowboys' beleaguered offensive line is on notice after committing several penalties while struggling with pass protection.

          TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

          LINE: Cowboys -3.5, O/U 41.5.

          ABOUT THE BEARS (2-1): Cutler has been erratic at best this season, and will now have to keep a wary eye on right outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (four sacks). Left tackle J'Marcus Webb, who was on the receiving end of a sideline shove from Cutler, will bear most of the responsibility for protecting his quarterback. Pro Bowl RB Matt Forte resumed practicing after injuring his ankle against Green Bay in Week 2, but it's unknown how much - if at all - he'll play on Monday. Michael Bush had 55 yards last week and scored his third touchdown of the season.

          ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2-1): Dallas would be well served to get DeMarco Murray untracked. The Cowboys' starting rusher had an 11-yard touchdown last week, but mustered just 38 yards on 18 carries - with seven of those coming for a loss. Keeping Bears stud wide receiver Brandon Marshall in check would be wise as well. Marshall has scored a touchdown in both career contests versus Dallas, but he'll likely be paid a visit by Gerald Sensabaugh. The safety missed last week's game with a calf strain, but expects to play on Monday.

          TRENDS:

          * Under is 6-0 in Cowboys last six games overall.
          * Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
          * Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.
          * Under is 7-3 in Bears’ last 10 road games.

          EXTRA POINTS:

          1. Dallas S Danny McCray will replace starter Barry Church, who underwent season-ending surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon. In addition, the Cowboys signed punter Brian Moorman to fill in for an injured Chris Jones (sprained knee).

          2. Cutler's passer rating of 58.6 is second worst among qualifiers, ahead of only Miami rookie Ryan Tannehill (58.3).

          3. Although Dallas boasts big CBs Brandon Carr and rookie Morris Claiborne, no member of the team's secondary has an interception this season. Cutler, who has thrown six, is tied with Cleveland rookie Brandon Weeden and Philadelphia's Michael Vick for the most this season.


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