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**Udog** · 09-27-2012, 09:38 AM

NFL odds: Week 4 opening line report

Upsets continue to be the big story of the 2012 NFL season, especially after a week in which teams getting the points finished 10-6 SU and 12-4 ATS.

None of those underdogs barked louder and with more blowback than the Seattle Seahawks, who stunned the Green Bay Packers 14-12 as 3-point home favorites, thanks to a questionable call from the replacement officials on the final play of the game.

According to reports out of Las Vegas and online books, as much as $250 million may have swung on that Hail Mary play, giving NFL bettors backing the Seahawks reason to celebrate.

Seattle’s controversial win improves it to 2-1 SU and ATS heading into Week 4's road date with the St. Louis Rams. The Sports Club, a Nevada-based odds service, sent out a suggested spread of Seahawks -2.5 and early lines popping up at online books tabbed Seattle as 1.5-point road chalk for Sunday’s game in St. Louis.

“I still think (the Seahawks) are going to go through some growing pains,” Peter Korner, founder of The Sports Club, told Covers. “They didn’t have a good second half, offensively (Monday), and basically got a gift on that last play.”

“It’s tough to take from these games, week to week, because we still don’t really know the nature of these teams – which is great for booking these games,” he says. “It’s messing with people’s minds. But we just go on setting the odds as normal.”

Korner says games like Monday’s, which have featured blunders by the replacement refs, have skewed the way bettors look at the games. The lack of consistency has been a boon to sportsbooks, who have cashed in big with underdogs going 29-18-1 ATS heading into Week 4.

“As far as bookmaking goes, all this stuff is fabulous,” adds Korner.

Here are the opening lines and early moves for some of Week 4’s biggest NFL games:

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 54.5)

Who would have thought there would be only one win between these two teams when they met in Week 4? Green Bay is 1-2 SU after the controversy in Seattle Monday, but it’s still the more stable team in this matchup. The Saints are 0-3 SU and need a big win to stop them from circling the drain.

“Neither team is playing up to their standards which will help booking this a lot,” says Korner, who originally sent out Green Bay -7. “We're not sure who will attract the big cash in this one on game day but we're thinking the Packers.”

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (+4.5, 39.5)

The Niners make the cross-county hike to New Jersey, trying to put last weekend’s brain fart against Minnesota in the rearview. The Sports Club suggested San Francisco -3, which is where most shops opened.

However, early action has pushed this spread off the key number and as high as 49ers -4.5 as of Tuesday morning. Road chalk has gone just 7-12 SU and 6-13 ATS so far this season.

“We were low to start and with the injury news of New York CB Darrelle Revis being out, the early action is strictly on the road favorites,” says Korner.

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 42)

The spread for the Monday nighter opened at Dallas -3 and jumped to -4 with early money on the home side. The Cowboys improved to 2-1 SU with an ugly win over Tampa Bay and, while the defense has looked solid, the offense is struggling to move the chains. That’s reflected in the move for the total, which has dropped from as high as 45 to 42 points.

“Good game which should help divide the action,” says Korner. “Both teams will be good to root for. This is a toss-up.”

**Udog** · 09-27-2012, 09:39 AM

Football lines that make you go hmmm...

The NFC East has bigger personality swings than Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde playing a heated game of Madden against Bruce Banner and the Hulk.

Through the first three weeks of the 2012 NFL season, the Giants, Cowboys, Eagles and Redskins have all looked great at one time or another. And, at one time or another, all four of those teams have looked downright terrible.

The schizophrenic division gets a moment of clarity Sunday night, when Philadelphia plays host to New York.

Oddsmakers have tabbed the Eagles as the favorites but depending on where you bet, you can grab the home side anywhere from -1 to -2.5, which is a world of difference when betting on teams with such extreme identity crises. It looks like even the oddsmakers don't know what they're dealing with in this NFC East grudge match.

“This is not a must-win game for Philly but they need to show well,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Covers. “Each team has a big-time receiver injured with (Hakeem) Hicks and (Jeremy) Maclin banged up.”

The Giants are 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Eagles, but the road team is a profitable 8-2 ATS in their last 10 encounters. See, even the betting trends are confused when it comes to this divisional showdown.

Here are some other spreads making football bettors go “hmmm…” heading into the weekend:

NFL

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 44.5)

As bad as San Diego looked last Sunday, should it really be a 1-point underdog in Arrowhead? Early bettors seem to think so. The spread has flipped from Kansas City +1, with sharp action impressed with the Chiefs’ overtime road win in New Orleans.

Covers Expert Teddy Covers said he saw some “quit” in Norv Turner’s team during last Sunday’s blowout loss to the Falcons. However, oddsmakers do expect more money on the Bolts as gametime draws near. San Diego is just 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 trips to Kansas City.

NCAAF

Oregon State Beavers at Arizona Wildcats (-2.5, 56.5)

Depending on your feelings about Arizona, this spread may look a little wonky to you. But the number that has football fans scratching their heads is the lofty 56.5-point total. Oregon State has only played two games thanks to a postponed opener, but the Beavers have gone against the Pac-12 grain and are getting the job done with defense.

Their state rivals, the Ducks, laid out the blueprint for beating the Wildcats with their 49-0 shutout last Saturday. Rich Rod will make some adjustments but OSU has a great bend-but-don’t-break mentality, holding foes to a 13.79 percent success rate on third downs – best in the country.

Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (+7, 45)

Boxing and MMA bettors love to play this math game when figuring out their wagers: If Fighter X beat Fighter Y, and Fighter Y beat Fighter Z, then Fighter X should mop the floor with Fighter Z. Not always the case, unfortunately.

Virginia Tech, which was stunned 35-17 by Pitt in Week 3, is a 7-point favorite versus Cincinnati, which thumped that same Pitt team 34-10 in Week 2. So what gives with the touchdown being gift wrapped to the Bearcats for this game at FedEx Field?

The Hokies offense is sputtering and meets a Cincy squad coming off a bye. The Bearcats, while only playing two games so far, can put points on the board. If Virginia Tech is going to win, it’ll be on defense and that 7-point spread may be a little too much for an offense that ranks seventh in the ho-hum ACC.

**Udog** · 09-27-2012, 09:44 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Cleveland at Baltimore
The Browns look to bounce back from their 24-14 loss to Buffalo last week and build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Cleveland is the pick (+12) according to Dunkel, which has the Ravens favored by only 10. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+12). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 27

Game 101-102: Cleveland at Baltimore (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.690; Baltimore 140.806
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 10; 48
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 12; 44
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+12); Over

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 30

Game 205-206: New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.358; Buffalo 135.662
Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 4; 52
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4); Under

Game 207-208: Minnesota at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.259; Detroit 133.529
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 8 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3); Under

Game 209-210: Carolina at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 132.952; Atlanta 138.196
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5; 53
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+7); Over

Game 211-212: San Francisco at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.218; NY Jets 128.471
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4); Under

Game 213-214: San Diego at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.591; Kansas City 133.033
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 1; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-1); Over

Game 215-216: Tennessee at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 128.839; Houston 139.085
Dunkel Line: Houston by 10; 42
Vegas Line: Houston by 12 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+12 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Seattle at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 128.172; St. Louis 128.082
Dunkel Line: Even; 41
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over

Game 219-220: Miami at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 131.864; Arizona 130.611
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Arizona by 6 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+6 1/2); Over

Game 221-222: Oakland at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 124.414; Denver 134.878
Dunkel Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 6 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6 1/2); Under

Game 223-224: Cincinnati at Jacksonville (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.605; Jacksonville 126.859
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1); Under

Game 225-226: New Orleans at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 127.610; Green Bay 141.775
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14; 57
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7 1/2); Over

Game 227-228: Washington at Tampa Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 127.686; Tampa Bay 132.524
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 5; 50
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3); Over

Game 229-230: NY Giants at Philadelphia (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 137.563; Philadelphia 136.390
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Under

MONDAY, OCTOBER 1

Game 231-232: Chicago at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 133.203; Dallas 137.533
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 2; 36
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 09-27-2012, 09:45 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Cleveland at Baltimore, 8:20 ET NFL
Cleveland: 13-5 Under in all games
Baltimore: 9-1 ATS in home games after a win by 3 or less

Sunday, September 30, 2012

New England at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New England: 13-4 ATS in road games
Buffalo: 10-2 Over as an underdog

Minnesota at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 0-6 ATS off a home win
Detroit: 9-2 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Carolina at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 40-23 Under in the first month
Atlanta: 1-12 ATS at home after 3 wins ATS

San Francisco at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 6-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite
NY Jets: 9-1 Over off a road win

San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 0-7 ATS where the total is between 42.5 and 45
Kansas City: 13-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 11-2 Under in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
Houston: 7-0 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game

Seattle at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 8-1 ATS after playing a game at home
St. Louis: 5-13 ATS in all lined games

Miami at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Miami: 13-4 Under in road lined games
Arizona: 5-15 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins

Oakland at Denver, 4:05 ET
Oakland: 6-0 ATS in road games versus division opponents
Denver: 51-29 Over as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Cincinnati at Jacksonville, 4:05 ET
Cincinnati: 4-17 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game
Jacksonville: 10-2 ATS after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half

New Orleans at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
New Orleans: 32-17 Over against NFC North division opponents
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Washington at Tampa Bay, 4:25 ET
Washington: 12-2 ATS in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards
Tampa Bay: 50-28 Under in the first month of the season

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET NBC
NY Giants: 9-2 ATS as an underdog
Philadelphia: 6-0 Under versus division opponents

Monday, October 1, 2012

Chicago at Dallas, 8:35 ET ESPN
Chicago: 6-0 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3
Dallas: 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

** Week 4 Byes: Indianapolis, Pittsburgh **

**Udog** · 09-27-2012, 09:46 AM

NFL

Week 4

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 27

8:20 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BALTIMORE
Cleveland is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland

Sunday, September 30

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Minnesota is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Seattle
St. Louis is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing Seattle

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
New England is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Houston
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
Houston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. NY JETS
San Francisco is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 17 of the NY Jets last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games when playing San Francisco

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
Carolina is 3-11-2 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. KANSAS CITY
San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games at home
Kansas City is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against San Diego

4:05 PM
MIAMI vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games on the road
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Arizona is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

4:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 11 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Jacksonville's last 19 games
Jacksonville is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

4:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

4:15 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. GREEN BAY
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games at home

4:15 PM
WASHINGTON vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington

8:20 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home

Monday, October 1

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. DALLAS
Chicago is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing Chicago
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

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**Udog** · 09-27-2012, 09:47 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Thursday's game
Browns (0-3) @ Ravens (2-1)—Short week for both teams; Ravens playing with heavy hearts after burial of Torrey Smith’s brother, and with possible letdown after emotional revenge win over Patriots- they’ve beaten Cleveland eight times in row and 19 of 26 overall, with six of those eight wins by 10+ points. Browns lost last four visits here by average score of 26-11. Since 2007, Ravens are just 4-8-1 vs spread as a divisional home favorite; they’re 1-7 in last eight games as double digit favorite. Last two Baltimore games were both decided by a single point. Browns lost Weeden’s first three starts by 1-7-10 points; they were down 7 at half in all three games. Cleveland is 7-4 vs spread in last 11 games as divisional road dogs. Average total in last six series games, 32.0. All three Baltimore games this season went over total. Divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread, so far this season.

**Udog** · 09-27-2012, 09:48 AM

NFL

Week 4

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Tale of the tape: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
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The AFC North steps into the Thursday night spotlight when the Cleveland Browns visit the Baltimore Ravens. We break down the offenses, defenses and special teams and give you a tale of the tape for Thursday Night Football.

Offense

The Ravens’ new no-huddle attack is getting the job done, ranked fourth in yards and second in scoring, averaging over 32 points a game. Baltimore unleashed its down-field attack versus New England last Sunday night, putting up 382 yards and three scores – two of which went to budding WR Torrey Smith, who played Week 3 with a heavy heart following the death of his brother.

The Browns offense took a step back last week after a promising effort versus Cincinnati. Cleveland is averaging only 19 points on 296.3 yards per game – both ranked 26th in the league. Rookie QB Brandon Weeden told reporters he’s going to be looking for big strikes against the Ravens defense, after posting no completion over 27 yards through the first three games. Weeden has a 3-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio and has been sacked eight times. Fellow first-year stud, RB Trent Richardson, took a step backwards in Week 3 following his first 100-yard effort in against Cincy.

Edge: Baltimore

Defense

While the identity of the Ravens has swung a bit from hard-nosed defense to free-wheelin’ offense, the heart and soul of Baltimore football remains the stop unit. The Ravens defense features staples like S Ed Reed and LB Ray Lewis, but these players may be getting on in age. Baltimore is ranked 27th in yards allowed, giving up more than 400 per game so far. The Ravens, however, do cause chaos, recovering three fumbles, picking off three passes and sacking the QB eight times.

Cleveland has been picked apart by opponents’ passing games through the first three weeks of the schedule, allowing 269 yards through the air an outing - 27th in the NFL. The Browns watched Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick connect for three TDs last week and failed to record a sack after picking up six against the Bengals. They do, however, lead the league with five interceptions – two coming from LB D'Qwell Jackson.

Edge: Baltimore

Special teams

The Ravens special teams came away with a controversial field goal in the final seconds versus New England. Baltimore kicker Justin Tucker is 7 for 7 on FG attempts, hitting three between 40-49 yards and two of 50-plus. The Ravens kick coverage isn’t great, ranked 27th in kickoffs and 24th in punts. They haven’t been outstanding in returning kicks either.

The Browns' kick coverage has been one of the biggest weaknesses for the club this season. Cleveland watched Pacman Jones go 81 yards for a punt return TD in Week 2 and have allowed an average of 24.8 yards on their six punts this season. Kickoff coverage is a little better, allowing 25.1 yards per kickoff. Josh Cribbs is still a return threat and sits eighth in average kickoff return yards and seventh in punt return yards. Kicker Phil Dawson is 5 for 5 on FG attempts, including two between 40-49 yards.

Edge: Tie

Word on the street

"Not to be cocky or talking mess, but if you're an athlete or you're a competitor, why would you stand down for anybody?" Richardson said. "I know Ray Lewis is going to come at me and I'm going to come right back at him. That's just football. He knows what football's about and I know what football's about, we've been playing it for years. Both of us are going to give all we can." – Browns RB Trent Richardson, about his matchup with veteran LB Ray Lewis.

"I never liked it when the Thursday night game came out," Reed told the Ravens' official website. "It's all about money. Like I said, it's out of my hands." – Ravens S Ed Reed, about how the Thursday game has Baltimore playing four games in 17 days.

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**Udog** · 09-27-2012, 09:48 AM

NFL

Week 4

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Thursday Night Football: Browns at Ravens
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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-13, 43.5)

The Baltimore Ravens won't have much time to enjoy last week's thrilling win, as they make a quick turnaround to host the Cleveland Browns on Thursday.

The Ravens are coming off an emotional 31-30 victory over New England on Sunday night, a game in which they racked up 503 total yards and rallied from an early 13-0 deficit. Trying to keep up with Baltimore's explosive offense will be a challenge for the Browns, who start rookies at quarterback (Brandon Weeden) and running back (Trent Richardson).

The Browns have averaged just 296 total yards per game during an 0-3 start, and they managed only 240 yards in Sunday's 24-14 home loss to Buffalo. Cleveland has lost nine straight dating to last season. To snap the skid, the Browns will have to end an eight-game losing streak against Baltimore dating to 2007. Only two games during the streak have been decided by a touchdown or less.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Baltimore opened as a 12-point favorite and has been bet up to -13. The total has moved from 44 to 23.5 since opening.

WEATHER: There is a chance of rain in Baltimore Thursday night, with the forecast calling for a 43 percent chance later in the evening. Temperatures will dip into the low 60s and winds are expected to reach speeds of 5 mph, blowing east from corner to corner.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Over 58 percent of players are on Baltimore. 50.6 percent is on the under.

ABOUT THE BROWNS (0-3, 1-1-1 ATS): Cleveland has managed to stay in games so far this season, but it hasn't been able to finish. The Browns dropped a tough 17-16 loss to the Eagles in Week 1, fell 34-27 to Cincinnati in Week 2 and couldn't overcome an awful first quarter last week against Buffalo. The defense has been solid, especially against the pass, but the young offense hasn't been able to keep up.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): Quarterback Joe Flacco is off to a strong start with a 101.1 rating after passing for 913 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions through three games. Ray Rice notched his first 100-yard rushing game of the season against the Patriots with 101 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. He could be a handful for a Browns defense that was gashed by Buffalo backs C.J. Spiller and Tashard Choice last week.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Baltimore's defense, which has been dominant for so long, might have finally lost a step. The Ravens rank 27th in the league in total defense, allowing 401.3 yards per game, but they have forced six turnovers.

2. Weeden, the 22nd pick in this year's draft, looked overmatched in Week 1 but has quickly improved. He has completed 56.5 percent of his passes for 677 yards with three touchdowns and six interceptions.

3. Ravens WR Torrey Smith matched a career-high with six catches totaling 127 yards and two touchdowns Sunday, just hours after learning his younger brother had been killed in a motorcycle accident.

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**Udog** · 09-27-2012, 09:49 AM

NFL injuries bettors should watch in Week 4

The Bills know that beating the Patriots, even at home, requires keeping the offensive engine tuned up. That’s why all eyes are on running Fred Jackson this week as he tries to return from knee injuries suffered in Week 1 of the season.

"From the workout and the rehab (Monday) morning, it went extremely well,” Bills coach Chan Gailey told the Buffalo News. “It looks like he's going to practice Wednesday and we'll see how he feels during the course of the week. I'm very optimistic."

Having Jackson on board might help push money towards the Bills, who have held at +4 (52) midweek. Getting him back for Week 4 is especially imperative after backup C.J. Spiller suffered a shoulder injury last week, after two solid outings, and will miss the next few weeks recovering.

Here are other injuries that could push lines either way in Week 4:

Jacob Tamme, Denver Broncos TE

Peyton Manning is having a tough time getting rolling and not having one of his familiar go-to guys in the lineup at 100 percent wouldn’t help. Tamme is listed as probable, but could be slowed by a groin injury when Denver is home against the Raiders (Broncos -6.5, 47.5) Sunday.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions QB

Stafford was actually hurt (hip) playing defense after the Lions lost a fumble and at mid-week the team is uncertain if he’ll go vs. Minnesota. Shaun Hill actually got late snaps in Detroit’s wild 44-41 loss to Tennessee, but Hill isn’t the long-term answer. Detroit is -7 (45.5) at home against the Vikings.

Darrelle Revis, New York Jets CB

Revis is perhaps the only defensive player in the league who can bump a line one way or the other, and oddsmakers have the Jets at +4 against the Niners at home this week in what probably would have been a field-goal game with him in the lineup.

Reggie Bush, Miami Dolphins RB

Speaking of Revis, Bush threw salt on the wound with his comments on a radio show this week, saying “What goes around comes around” when asked about the Jets shutdown corner. Bush is dealing with his own ailment and is currently listed as questionable against the Cardinals (Arizona -6) Sunday. The running back is very important to the Fins attack, especially with the roster thin on playmakers.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears RB

The Bears have a huge Monday night meeting with the Cowboys (Dallas -3.5) and may not have their top offensive weapon in the holster. Forte is listed as doubtful due to a sprained ankle and Chicago is scrambling for options at RB. Former Packers RB Ryan Grant looked like an option but took a job with the Redskins. Jacob Hester, Steve Slaton and DuJuan Harris have all tried out for the Bears empty RB position.

**Udog** · 09-27-2012, 10:41 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 27

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CLEVELAND (0 - 3) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 9/27/2012, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 30

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NEW ENGLAND (1 - 2) at BUFFALO (2 - 1) - 9/30/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 147-109 ATS (+27.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (2 - 1) at DETROIT (1 - 2) - 9/30/2012, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (1 - 2) at ATLANTA (3 - 0) - 9/30/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 1) at NY JETS (2 - 1) - 9/30/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (2 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 2) - 9/30/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (1 - 2) at HOUSTON (3 - 0) - 9/30/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (2 - 1) at ST LOUIS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 87-124 ATS (-49.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 94-125 ATS (-43.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 42-67 ATS (-31.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 61-88 ATS (-35.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (1 - 2) at ARIZONA (3 - 0) - 9/30/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (1 - 2) at DENVER (1 - 2) - 9/30/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 27-60 ATS (-39.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 39-68 ATS (-35.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (2 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 2) - 9/30/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 105-139 ATS (-47.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (0 - 3) at GREEN BAY (1 - 2) - 9/30/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 144-105 ATS (+28.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (1 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 2) - 9/30/2012, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 0-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (2 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) - 9/30/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 148-108 ATS (+29.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 1

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CHICAGO (2 - 1) at DALLAS (2 - 1) - 10/1/2012, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 09-28-2012, 10:12 AM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Now that NFL bettors can no longer blame their sorrows on the replacement refs, it’s time to really buckle down and do some homework. The Sunday schedule is still a few days off, but tracking line moves is a great way to spot value before it dries up.

We talk with Mike Colbert, race and sportsbook director for Cantor Gaming in Nevada, about the biggest mid-week line moves and where he sees the spread landing before kickoff.

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams – Open: St. Louis +1, Move: St. Louis +3

Coming off a controversial win over Green Bay at home, Seattle hits the road for a divisional matchup with St. Louis. Bettors are jumping on the Seahawks, pushing this spread as high as a field goal at some books, but Colbert isn’t completely sold on Seattle.

“I don’t think (Seattle is) a bad team but I like the home dog quite a bit,” Colbert told Covers. “I think it’s the wrong favorite.”

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons – Open: Atlanta -9, Move: Atlanta -7

Sharp money pounced on the Panthers as soon as this game hit the board, driving it down to a clean touchdown. Colbert says it’s been all sharp money on Carolina so far and says last week’s outcomes had a heavy impact on that opening line.

“This spread was inflated a bit,” he says. “Carolina looked really bad last week and Atlanta looked good against San Diego. We’ve taken quite a bit of sharp money on the dog.”

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions – Open: -7, Move: -4.5

This spread is a tricky one. Most shops, especially in Las Vegas, don’t have the game on the board as of Thursday morning due to the injury to Detroit QB Matthew Stafford. However, it looks as though the Lions signal-caller is probable for Sunday.

Colbert expects the opening line at Cantor properties to come out around -5 or 5.5 Detroit later Thursday, but isn’t discounting the Vikings or their upset win over the Niners last week.

“I think it was a great spot,” Colbert says of Minnesota’s 24-13 win, “but I also think the Vikings are pretty good – or at least better than what most people thought. Christian Ponder seems to be getting comfortable and coming into his own. They’re not great but better than we thought.”

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: Kansas City +1, Move: Kansas City -1

Cantor Gaming opened this game at a pick’em and took instant action on the Chiefs, pushing the spread to K.C. -1. Colbert has zero faith in the Chargers, especially after last weekend’s blowout loss to Atlanta.

“San Diego was completely exposed,” he says. “The Chargers had a win over a bad Oakland team, a win over a bad Tennessee team and then got their ass kicked by Atlanta. I think Kansas City should be favored by more, in my opinion.”

**Udog** · 09-29-2012, 10:32 PM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 4

Want to handicap Sunday's NFL action but don't have time to research every game? Check out our NFL poolies cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs. We give you quick-hitting notes on all of Week 4's action.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (4, 51)

Patriots QB Tom Brady has an 18-2 career mark against the Bills with 46 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. In last's season’s game at Buffalo, WR Wes Welker had career highs in catches (16) and receiving yards (217) and tied a career best with two TD receptions. New England is 7-1 ATS in its last eight contests in Buffalo.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-12, 45)

Texans RB Arian Foster leads the NFL in carries and a rushing attack that has averaged 150 yards per game over the first three games. The Titans have surrendered a league-high 37.7 points per game, but QB Jake Locker had the best game of his pro career with 378 yards passing in last week’s overtime victory over the Lions. The over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (1, 44.5)

Jamaal Charles put any concerns about the condition of his surgically-repaired knee to rest, rushing for 233 yards and a TD to rally the Chiefs past the New Orleans Saints last week. Chargers QB Philip Rivers was intercepted twice by the Falcons and threw for only 173 yards last week, his lowest output since the final game of the 2009 season. The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-4.5, 47)

Second-year QB Christian Ponder is off to a fast start, completing 70.1 percent of his passes with four TDs and a 104.9 rating. He'll have another weapon to throw to as speedster Jerome Simpson (suspension) makes his season and Vikings' debut Sunday. Lions QB Matthew Stafford practiced this week and appears healthy enough to play Sunday after exiting last week’s loss to the Titans because of a strained leg muscle. Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-7, 48)

Carolina's 27th-ranked rush defense will need to contend with Michael Turner, who has gouged the Panthers for an average of 104 yards and scored 11 TDs during a seven-game span. The Falcons defense has produced 11 takeaways - including a league-best plus-10 ratio so far this campaign. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (2.5, 39)

The Seahawks look to open a season at 3-1 for the first time since 2007 as they try for their fourth consecutive win over the Rams and 14th in 15 meetings. The health of RB Steven Jackson (groin) remains a concern for the Rams after he gained only 29 yards on 11 carries against the Bears last week. Jackson did not practice on Wednesday. The Seahawks are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

San Francisco 49ers at N.Y. Jets (4, 41.5)

The New York Jets suffered a crushing blow when it was revealed that star defensive back Darrelle Revis would miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Jets signal-caller Mark Sanchez will also be without one of his weapons on Sunday, with rookie receiver Stephen Hill (hamstring) expected to sit out. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5, 39)

Dolphins RB Reggie Bush is questionable after suffering a sprained ligament in his left knee against the Jets last week. Bush, who underwent an MRI that revealed no structural damage, is averaging six yards per carry. Arizona may have some reinforcements for Sunday as S Adrian Wilson (ankle) and TE Todd Heap (knee) could return from injuries. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-6.5, 48.5)

The Raiders, who have won four straight at Denver, got their running game pumping with Darren McFadden leading the way with 113 yards and a TD in last week's win over Pittsburgh. Broncos RB Willis McGahee suffered a rib injury against Houston last week and was a limited participant in practice Wednesday, but is expected to play. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (1, 43.5)

The Bengals' passing game has been clicking, as QB Andy Dalton looks for his third consecutive 300-yard game. Dalton has a rising star on the receiving end of many of his passes in A.J. Green, who racked up a career-high 183 receiving yards last week. Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew's holdout has had little effect on his ability, as he ranks second in the NFL with 314 rushing yards. The Jaguars have won seven of the last nine meetings in Jacksonville.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-9, 53)

The Saints defense has been atrocious (league-worst 477.3 ypg) and is a major reason why the team is 0-3 for the first time since 2007. Quarterback Drew Brees broke his own completion percentage record last season (71.6), but is connecting on just 54.7 percent of his attempts, the lowest rate since he became a full-time starter. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has been sacked a league-high 16 times so far this season. The poor protection has led to Green Bay's 24th ranking in scoring (19.0 ppg). The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5, 47)

Washington, surprisingly, is the league's highest-scoring team thanks to rookie QB Robert Griffin III, but it has also allowed the second-most points in the NFC. Tampa Bay has the league's top rushing defense, but suffered a big blow when DE Adrian Clayborn, the team's sack leader in 2011, suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. The Bucs have won six straight home games against the Redskins.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-1, 47.5)

The Giants defense was stellar in Week 3, picking off Cam Newton three times in a 36-7 rout of the Carolina Panthers. On offense, RB Ahmad Bradshaw (neck) will return to the starting lineup this week and split carries with Andre Brown. Philadelphia leads the league with 12 turnovers thanks mostly to the sloppy play of QB Michael Vick, who has thrown six INTs and fumbled the ball away three times. The Giants are 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings.

**Udog** · 09-29-2012, 10:37 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Sunday's games
Patriots (1-2) Bills (2-1)—Since 2004, New England is 30-16-1 vs spread as road favorites- they’re 22-7 vs spread in game following their last 29 losses. Buffalo’s 34-31 upset win here LY was their only win in last 17 series games; New England won 10 of last 12 visits to western NY, with seven of last eight wins by 13+ points, but Pats are under .500 (1-2) for first time in decade after giving up 508 yards in last-second loss at Baltimore. Red flag is NE is 1-2 start, despite being plus in turnovers all three games. Bills have run ball for 195-201-138 yards, so offense has decent balance (178 ypg rushing, 193 passing)- they’re 15-32 on third down and Fitzpatrick has only been sacked once. Favorites are 6-1 vs spread in AFC divisional games so far this season. Since ’05, Bills are 3-8-1 vs spread as a divisional home dog. Average total in last four series games, 60.0.

Vikings (2-1) @ Lions (1-2)— You screw up a game the way Lions did last week (allowed two special teams TD’s, a defensive score, then butchered end-game when center didn’t know he wasn’t supposed to snap ball on 4th down in OT), it tends to have lingering effects. Only Detroit win so far was in last 0:10 vs Rams- they’ve allowed four odd TDs, and half of six TDs the defense gave up came on drives shorter than 60 yards, so they’ve been shooting themselves in foot. Health of Lions’ QB Stafford (hamstring) in question here, although backup Hill is one of league’s better #2 QB’s. Detroit won last three series games by 7-3-6 points, after losing 20 of previous 22 vs Minnesota; Vikings lost last two visits here, 20-13/34-28. Lions are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 games as home favorites. Minnesota is 2-6 in last eight games as divisional road dogs, but they’ve outgained all three opponents this year, as OC Musgrave has worked wonders with young QB Ponder.

Panthers (1-2) @ Falcons (3-0)—Carolina had three extra days to prepare after hideous home loss to Giants; they’ve lost four in row and six of last seven to Atlanta, giving up 31 points in each of last four series games. Panthers lost last four visits here by average score of 29-19, with three of four losses by 14+ points. Carolina scored 10-7 points in two losses, running ball 33 times for 70 yards; they scored 35 in only win, running ball 41 times for 219 yards. Atlanta allowed 152-118-116 rushing yards in its three wins, all vs AFC West opponents. Falcons are 11-2-1 vs spread in last 14 games as divisional home favorite; they’re 25-10-1 as single digit favorites under Smith. Atlanta is already +8 in turnovers this year; they’ve had 20 points at halftime in all three games. Carolina is 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as divisional road underdog- they’ve allowed 11 plays of 20+ yards in their last two games.

49ers (2-1) @ Jets (2-1)—Niners lost turnover battle in only 4 of Harbaugh’s 21 games as HC, but they’re 1-3 in those games (15-2 in others); loss of defensive ace Revis leaves Gang Green crippled, since four of six TDs offense has scored came on drives of less than 55 yards. Jets rely on defense to set up the offense; they’ve completed just 31-72 (43.1%) of passes last two games, and were lucky to escape Miami (Bush got hurt, Fish led by 10 at one point) with win. NFC West teams are 7-2 vs spread in non-divisional games, 1-1 when favored. AFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread, 2-2 as dogs. Since ’09, Niners are 15-4-2 in game following a loss, 3-0 under Harbaugh. Since ’05, Jets are 9-6 as home dogs, 2-0 under Ryan; they’re 20-15 vs spread in game following their last 35 wins. 49ers won nine of 11 series games, winning five of six played here, with only loss 22-14 in last visit here, back in ’04.

Chargers (2-1) @ Chiefs (1-2)—KC was 0-2 and down 24-6 in Superdome when Charles ran 91 yards for TD and turned their season around; home side won last five games in this series, with Chargers losing 21-14/23-20ot in last two visits here. Chiefs ran ball for 152-160-273 yards in three games (195 ypg) but don’t have TD drive of less than 73 yards, thanks to minus-6 TO ratio (lost four fumbles last two games). Turner is 7-5-1 vs spread in last 13 games where spread was 3 or less points; he’s 11-6-1 vs spread in last 18 AFC West road games. Chiefs allowed 40-35-24 points this season (avg 33 ppg), giving up 11 TDs on 33 drives, despite outgaining all three foes. Last two games, KC has one TD, five FGs on seven drives in red zone, that’s a red flag. Chiefs covered twice in last nine AFC West home games. All three San Diego games this year stayed under total.

Titans (1-2) @ Texans (3-0)—Tennessee won one of wildest games in NFL history last week, scoring TDs on PR-KR-FR, but still needed OT to win, after failing to cover onside kick and allowing two TDs in last 0:18 of regulation. Titans, who used to be Houston Oilers, won five of last seven visits here, but lost first meeting with Texans last three years (20-0/41-7 last two years)- they’ve run ball for just 39 ypg so far, a red flag against terrific Houston offense that is scoring 32.7 ppg. You could make case for Texans as NFL’s #1 team right now; they’ve scored 10 TDs on 36 drives, with only two turnovers. Since ’07, they’re 16-11-1 as home favorites, 6-2 in AFC South games. Titans are 5-9 vs spread in game after their last 14 wins; Locker has been shaky in red zone (one TD, five FGs in six trips). Sometimes tough to pay double digits with team making rare showing on Monday Night Football next year, but locals’ dislike of Titan owner Bud Adams should keep Texans engaged here.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Rams (1-2)—Humungous trap game for Seattle, after beating Cowboys/Packers at home, travelling 2,126 miles on short week to face lowly division rival they’ve beaten 13 of last 14 times, including six of last seven visits here. Seahawks won last three series games by average score of 23-9, but these Rams aren’t those Rams under Fisher- they’re more competitive, more pugnacious (trailed Chicago 13-6 with 9:00 left before fatal pick-6 ended game). Biggest “IF” for Rams is can they block aggressive Seattle front-7 that sacked Rodgers eight times in first half Monday (none in second half). St Louis gained 451 yards in only home game this year, coming back from down 21-6 to beat Redskins. Seattle didn’t turn ball over in either win, and they got gift from referees to win Monday’s game. If Rams’ front can keep Bradford upright, he’ll hit enough plays to spring minor upset here, as two of three Seattle games have come down to last play.

Dolphins (1-2) @ Cardinals (3-0)—Redbirds are 3-0 for first time since ’74, when Ford was President/Coryell was coach; this is first time Arizona is favored this season; since 2009, Cardinals are 4-8-2 vs spread as home favorites- they’re 7-10 vs spread in last 17 games vs AFC squads. Cardinals won last two series games after losing previous eight; seven of 10 games were decided by 13+ points. Miami split its previous two visits to desert. Dolphins have committed to running ball (263-185 rushing yards last two games), to protect rookie QB Taneyhill (just 34-66 passing last two games), but Bush got hurt last week, which cost them against Jets. Fish are 19-36 on 3rd down last two games. Former Indy GM Bill Polian praised their coaching staff, that’s good enough for us. Underdogs are 7-1-1 vs spread in Arizona’s last nine games. All three Cardinal games stayed under the total.

Raiders (1-2) @ Broncos (1-2)—Since 2006, Denver is unspeakably bad 6-24-1 vs spread as home favorites, 1-11-1 in AFC West games, so this is big game for Fox/Manning regime, vs Oakland coach Allen, who was Denver’s DC LY. Huge upgrade at QB for Broncos since then; Denver has six TDs, three FGs in nine red zone trips, and figure to improve as schedule softens (opened with Pitt-Atl-Hst) and Manning gets better chemistry with WRs. Oakland allowed 27-31 points last two games, and has yet to hold opponent under 6.1 yards/pass attempt; they’re 19-13 vs spread as road dog last 4+ years. Raiders won four of last five series games, winning last four visits to Mile High City; seven of last nine series games were decided by 14+ points, with average total in last four, 60.0. Denver outscored opponents 52-26 in second half of games, but they trailed all three at halftime. Oakland is 16-27 vs spread in game after its last 43 losses.

Bengals (2-1) @ Jaguars (1-2)— Cincy OC Gruden threw WR pass for 71-yard score on first play of game last week; aggressive Bengal approach posted 34-38 points last two games, with minimal help (one takeaway in each game) from defense. Cincy had four plays of 20+ yards on first down last week, after not having one in first two games. Jaguars pulled first win out of hat last week, scoring on 80-yard pass one play after Colts had taken lead with last-minute FG. Jax is 11-7 vs one-time division rivals, but lost last two meetings, 21-19/ 30-20; home team won 12 of 18 series games, with Bengals losing seven of nine visits here. Four of last seven series games were decided by 7 or less points. AFC North teams are 3-5 vs spread outside the division (1-3 as favorites); AFC South teams are 5-3, 3-3 as underdogs. Bengals are now 17-10 vs spread in game following their last 27 wins; am thinking we’ve underestimated the coaching job Lewis has done working for cheapskate Mike Brown.

Saints (0-3) @ Packers (1-2)— Green Bay on short week after chaotic last-minute loss in Seattle, game where Rodgers got sacked eight times in first half; Pack covered 14 of last 19 tries as home favorite- they’re 10-3 vs spread in game following last 13 losses. Rudderless Saints allowed 3rd-most yards in history of NFL in first three games- they’ve allowed 34 ppg in 0-3 start, blowing 24-6 lead at home to 0-2 Chiefs last week, giving up 273 rushing yards- they’ve giving up average of 215 rushing yards/game. NO is underdog for first time this year; since ’07, they’re 5-8-1 vs spread as road dogs. Teams split four meetings (average total, 64) over last seven years; Saints lost three of four visits here (before that, all their visits to Wisconsin were played in Milwaukee). Guessing its been while since team (Saints) scored 83 points in first three games, but didn’t cover any of them. Safe to say Roger Goodell won’t be attending this game.

Redskins (1-2) @ Buccaneers (1-2)— Not sure Washington is better with RGIII but they sure as hell are more exciting, scoring 45-28-31 points in its 1-2 start; problem is, defense has had attrition, allowing 8.1/12.8 yards/pass attempt to Rams/Bengals last two games. Redskins have run ball for 153-176-213 yards, but are just 11-40 on 3rd down, part of why they’ve lost field position by 12-8 yards last two games. All three Buc games were decided by 7 or less points; of their four TDs in last two games, only one came on drive longer than 29 yards. Bucs have 8 takeaways already (+4) but only one win, not a good sign. Tampa won three of last four series games, all decided by 6 or less points; since 1994, Redskins lost seven of eight visits here. Average total in last five series games is 29.6. Underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in NFC East teams’ non-divisional road games (2-0 as road dogs). NFC South home favorites are 1-3 outside their division. Former Buc coach Morris is Skins' secondary coach.

Giants (2-1) @ Eagles (2-1)—You can’t turn ball over three times a game and win for any length of time; Eagles are 2-1 despite 12 giveaways (6 INT, 6 fumbles) already, include horrific mishap before half in desert last week, when time/score blunder turned what should’ve been 17-3 deficit into 24-0 debacle. Giants had three extra days to prepare after crushing Panthers last week; they’ve scored 61 points in last five quarters, averaging 10.0/7.2 yards/pass attempt in last two games. Both Eagle wins this year are by single point, when Vick led winning drive in last 2:00; they’re 6-10 in last 16 tries as home favorite, 15-13 in last 28 games where spread was 3 or less points. Giants covered five of last seven as road dogs; they’re 4-1-1 in last six where spread was 3 or less points. Philly won seven of last eight series games, with visitor winning four of last five; Giants are 3-2 in last five visits here- they’ve won first meeting with Iggles in five of last seven years.

Monday's game
Bears (2-1) @ Cowboys (2-1)—Dallas struggling mightily on offense, scoring 23 points in last two games, with only one TD drive longer than 23 yards; they’ve run ball 39 times for 87 yards vs Seattle/Tampa, neither of which reminds us of ’85 Bears. Cowboys started 3 of 12 drives in Tampa territory, still scored only 16 points last week. Dallas has now covered only three of last 15 games as home favorite, though they’ve been better home favorite outside the division (13-10 since ’07, compared to 3-11 vs NFC East foes). Cutler is 28-58 passing last two games; he just looks bad when pressured, moreso than most QBs. Since ’07, Chicago is 6-10-2 vs spread as non-divisional road underdog- they’ve converted only 13 of 41 on 3rd down, but they do have 11 sacks in last two games. Underdogs are 10-0 vs spread in non-divisional games involving NFC East teams; NFC East squads are 0-7 as non-divisional favorites, 0-4 at home.

**Udog** · 09-29-2012, 10:43 PM

NFL

Week 4

Sunday, September 30

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49ers at Jets: What bettors need to know
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San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (+4, 40.5)

The New York Jets suffered a crushing blow when it was revealed that star defensive back Darrelle Revis would miss the rest of the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. If that news wasn’t bad enough, they are also going to have to find a way to get their offense going against the San Francisco 49ers this week. For the third time in the first four weeks, the 49ers will have to travel at least two time zones to play on the road.

The Minnesota Vikings used a mobile quarterback to get around San Francisco’s fearsome defense, which means Tim Tebow could see more touches this week for New York. Tebow has been most effective on special teams early in the season and has yet to assert himself as an offensive playmaker with the Jets. New York will be looking to drop San Francisco to .500 when the teams meet in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Oddsmakers opened the 49ers as 3-point road favorites which was bet up to -4. The total dropped from 40.5 to 39.5 before being bet back to the original number.

WEATHER: The forecast for MetLife Stadium is calling for a 50 percent chance of rain with temperatures dipping into the mid-60s. Winds will blow NNE at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): San Francisco was on the very short list of the best teams in the NFL after convincing wins over the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, but slipped up last week in a 24-13 loss at Minnesota. The 49ers struggled to contain Christian Ponder in the pocket, and Alex Smith was uncharacteristically sloppy at quarterback. They just have to get through New York before enjoying a stretch of five of their next six games at home. San Francisco could try to exploit the Jets’ Revis-less secondary by featuring Randy Moss, who has been limited to eight catches in the first three weeks. Smith got a pair of new receivers in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham in the offseason but is still focusing on tight end Vernon Davis in the passing game.

ABOUT THE JETS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): There is plenty of doom and gloom surrounding New York after Revis’ diagnosis. The Pro Bowler served as the quarterback of the Jets defense, and his ability to lock down a receiver in single coverage made it easier for Rex Ryan to call multiple blitz packages. Now that Revis is done, Antonio Cromartie steps into the No. 1 cornerback slot and Kyle Wilson will replace Revis in the lineup. New York showed several areas of weakness in a sloppy 23-20 overtime win in Miami last weekend, including a running game that is averaging just 3.3 yards per attempt. Tebow lined up for 12 plays with the offense against Miami and accounted for zero yards. The Wildcat packages designed to get him onto the field have not worked and Tebow spent most of his time at H-back in Miami. Mark Sanchez has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in each of the last two weeks.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* 49ers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. team with winning road record.
* Over is 26-11 in Jets' last 37 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Sanchez will be without one of his weapons on Sunday, with rookie receiver Stephen Hill (hamstring) expected to sit out.

2. The 49ers are 10-1 under coach Jim Harbaugh when winning the time of possession battle and 5-3 when coming out on the short end.

3. San Francisco KR Kyle Williams set a career high with 144 yards on returns last week, outgaining the offense by himself at one point.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thursday, September 27 - Monday, October 1)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thursday, September 27 - Monday, October 1)

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