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  • The Bum's Wednesday's MLB Best Bets !

    Nationals Begin Final Road Trip At Philadelphia

    Had someone been living under a rock the past six months only to crawl out today to take their first glance at the MLB standings, they might be inclined to think there was a misprint in the NL East where the Washington Nationals rank at the top with the Philadelphia Phillies down in third.

    We wouldn't blame anyone for thinking that given the preseason MLB futures odds in April. Philadelphia was priced at -185 to take home a sixth consecutive division flag with Washington (+450) expected to finish third at best. Instead, the Nationals are looking at a magic number of five to win their first division title since playing as the Expos back in 1981 while the Phillies, though mathematically still in the hunt, are relegated to playing the role of spoilers.

    Washington will look to trim that magic number against the Phils beginning Tuesday when the clubs begin a 3-game series in the City of Brotherly Love. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is at 7:05 p.m. (ET) and will be delivered by Cole Hamels with the Phillies opening as $1.45 favorites. Opposing him in the all-southpaw duel is Ross Detwiler and a quick check of the Don Best Pro Odds finds a 7½-run total priced to the 'under.'

    The schedule maker didn't do the Nats many favors with a tough slate to close out the 2012 campaign. Since reaching a season-high 35 games over .500 with a sweep of the Mets on Sept. 12, Washington has stumbled a bit with a 4-6 mark heading into this set at Philadelphia. That record coincidentally corresponds to the announcement the team was shutting down ace Stephen Strasburg for the season. Strasburg has missed two potential outings during the Nationals' 4-6 run.

    The good news is Davey Johnson still has a quality starting quartet to take his crew into the postseason. Gio Gonzalez, who will likely make just one more start before the regular season draws to a close, leads the foursome that also includes Detwiler, Jordan Zimmermann and Edwin Jackson. That group will be backed up by a solid relief corps that is only now seeing former closer Drew Storen round into form after missing the first half with elbow trouble.

    Detwiler has been on a pretty good roll since the all-star break with the Nationals 9-4 behind him in the second half. That includes a 3-0 shutout vs. Philadelphia in early-August when the former Missouri State star tossed seven shutout frames and allowed just three hits.

    Three of the four losses Washington has suffered with Detwiler on the hill the past three months have come on the road. The Nationals have also dropped two of his three assignments in Philly, though Detwiler has pitched to a 2.95 ERA in his career on the Citizens Bank Park bump.

    Hamels, meanwhile, has been a Nats killer with Philly sporting a 16-7 record in his 23 career outings vs. Washington and pitching to a 2.48 ERA. All three of his starts this season have been quality efforts and resulted in two Phillies wins. One note about those numbers is Hamels had never pitched at Nationals Park before this year, making 11 straight starts vs. Washington at home from 2008-11 before taking the mound in DC back in May.

    Philadelphia backers have cashed in seven of Hamels' last eight starts while he has pared about a quarter-run off his season ERA since the end of July.

    These outfits have seen each other 12 times already this season, and will meet once again for a 3-game series in Washington next week to close out the schedule. The Phillies have a 7-5 lead in the season series, and are 52-28 against the Nats at home since CBP opened in 2004. The last time they got together in Philly, 'under' bettors swept the set to give low-side wagers a 5-1 record in the six games played this year in Philadelphia.

    A few clouds are in the forecast for Tuesday night with the thermometer in the upper-60s for the start of the game. A southerly wind (out to center) of 10 mph is also in the mix.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Rangers & Athletics Continue Crucial Set In Texas

    The A’s are 26-28 this season when facing a left-handed starting pitcher.

    Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
    MLB Betting Preview
    Date: 09/26/2012, 8:05 p.m. (ET) ESPN
    Opening Lines: Rangers -135, O/U 9½


    Oakland Athletics: The A's (86-67, +29.4 units through Monday) were just 2-5 on this current road trip heading into Tuesday's tilt that was still pending. Oakland's lead for the second AL wild card spot was down to two over a fast-charging Angels team, and was a decided +180 underdog in Game 2. The Athletics will send Jarrod Parker to the mound for Game 3 on Wednesday with the rookie in search of his 12th win of the campaign. Parker has pitched at least seven innings his last four times to the hill and allowed two runs or less in the outings, but Oakland's offense has failed to support his efforts with a 2-2 team mark in those games. He faced the Rangers in Oakland on June 4 and surrendered just one hit in eight shutout frames for the win as a +120 underdog. Parker's last four starts, and eight of the last 10, have stayed 'under' the total.

    Texas Rangers: Ron Washington and the Rangers (91-62, +2.1 units) went into Tuesday's second game of the series having seen their magic number for a third consecutive AL West title sliced to five with a 5-4 victory in Monday's series opener. Texas sends rookie Martin Perez to the mound on Wednesday for his second consecutive start since being recalled in early September. The southpaw has four starts overall to his credit (Rangers 1-3) along with six relief appearances. The Venezuelan earned his first MLB victory vs. the A's in Oakland on June 30, working into the sixth and allowing just two runs while striking out five. Perez was not sharp his last time out and took a 6-3 loss at Seattle, the only 'over' among his four starts to date. Oakland is 26-28 this year when facing a left-handed starter while Texas is 64-45 vs. righties.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Two Early Starts:

      Wednesday, September 26

      Game Score Status Pick Amount

      NY Yankees - 1:10 PM ET Minnesota +190 500
      Minnesota - Over 8 500

      LA Dodgers - 6:35 PM ET San Diego -110 500
      San Diego - Under 7 500
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        Evening Games:

        Wednesday, September 26

        Game Score Status Pick Amount

        LA Dodgers 0 Bot 0 San Diego -110 500
        San Diego 0 Under 7 500

        Toronto - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore -181 500
        Baltimore - Under 8.5 500

        Washington - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia -122 500
        Philadelphia - Over 8.5 500

        Kansas City - 7:05 PM ET Detroit -149 500
        Detroit - Under 8.5 500

        Tampa Bay - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -132 500
        Boston - Over 9 500

        Miami - 7:10 PM ET Miami +136 500
        Atlanta - Over 7.5 500

        Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +106 500
        NY Mets - Over 8 500

        Milwaukee - 7:10 PM ET Milwaukee +122 500
        Cincinnati - Over 8.5 500

        St. Louis - 8:05 PM ET St. Louis -177 500
        Houston - Under 8 500

        Oakland - 8:05 PM ET Oakland +124 500
        Texas - Under 9 500

        Cleveland - 8:10 PM ET Cleveland +149 500
        Chi. White Sox - Over 9 500

        Chi. Cubs - 8:40 PM ET Colorado -124 500
        Colorado - Over 10.5 500

        Seattle - 10:05 PM ET Seattle +132 500
        LA Angels - Under 7 500

        Arizona - 10:15 PM ET Arizona +141 500
        San Francisco - Under 6.5 500
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          MLB
          Armadillo's Write-Up

          Wednesday, September 26

          Hot pitchers
          -- Kendrick is 6-2, 2.17 in his last eight starts. Lannan is 3-0, 4.43 in four starts this season.
          -- Richard is 5-0, 3.60 in his last six starts.
          -- Arroyo is 5-1, 2.60 in his last eight starts.
          -- Cain is 2-0, 1.77 in his last three starts.

          -- MGonzalez is 2-1, 3.16 in his last four starts.
          -- Guthrie is 2-0, 1.98 in his last five starts.
          -- Cobb is 2-1, 3.45 in his last five starts.
          -- Parker is 2-1, 1.86 in his last four starts.
          -- Santiago is 1-0, 1.00 in two starts this year (9 IP).
          -- Wilson is 3-1, 4.44 in his last five starts.

          Cold pitchers
          -- Harang is 0-3, 4.97 in his last five starts.
          -- Marcum is 0-1, 6.37 in his last six starts.
          -- Locke is 0-2, 6.64 in four starts this season. Hefner is 0-3, 8.31 in his last five starts.
          -- JJohnson is 1-4, 4.26 in his last six starts. Maholm is 1-3, 6.47 in his last six starts.
          -- Norris is 0-4, 5.51 in his last six starts; he's winless in his last 18 starts. Carpenter allowed two runs in five IP in his first '12 start.
          -- Berken is 0-1, 5.40 in two starts this month. Pomeranz is 0-2, 7.94 in his last five starts.
          -- Miley is 2-2, 5.34 in his last five starts.

          -- Sabathia is 0-3, 4.37 in his last five starts. Deduno is 1-3, 6.98 in his last five outings.
          -- Villanueva is 0-2, 7.36 in his last four starts.
          -- Porcello is 0-6, 5.59 in his last seven starts.
          -- Lester is 1-3, 4.86 in his last five starts.
          -- Perez is 1-2, 4.64 in four starts this season.
          -- Masterson is 0-3, 7.27 in his last three starts.
          -- FHernandez is 0-3, 7.13 in his last four starts.

          Hot Teams
          -- Phillies won nine of their last eleven home games.
          -- Braves won eight of their last ten games.
          -- Mets won four of their last five games.
          -- Brewers won 25 of their last 34 games. Cincinnati won six of eight.
          -- Cardinals won eight of their last nine games.
          -- Padres won nine of their last eleven home games.
          -- Arizona won six of its last nine games. Giants won 11 of last 13.

          -- Tigers won six of their last nine home games.
          -- Orioles won seven of their last ten games.
          -- Tampa Bay won its last six games, scoring 51 runs.
          -- Bronx won 10 of its last 13 games.
          -- Rangers won seven of last eleven home games.
          -- Angels won eight of their last eleven games.

          Cold Teams
          -- Washington lost seven of its last eleven games.
          -- Marlins, who appear disinterested, lost seven of last eight games.
          -- Pirates lost 13 of their last 18 games.
          -- Astros lost six of their last eight games.
          -- Colorado lost 16 of its last 20 games; Cubs lost seven of eight.
          -- Dodgers lost 12 of their last 18 games.

          -- Royals lost last three games, allowing 23 runs.
          -- Blue Jays lost 11 of their last 15 games.
          -- Red Sox lost five of their last six games.
          -- A's lost six of their last nine games.
          -- White Sox lost ix of their last seven games. Indians lost 12 of their last 17.
          -- Minnesota lost six of its last eight home games.
          -- Mariners lost eight of their last eleven games.

          Totals
          -- Under is 7-4-1 in Philly's last twelve home games.
          -- Under is 4-1-1 in Miami's last six games.
          -- Over is 16-8-1 in last 25 Milwaukee games.
          -- Under is 21-12-2 in Mets' last 35 games.
          -- Nine of last thirteen St Louis games stayed under total.
          -- 13 of last 16 Colorado games went over the total.
          -- 12 of last 15 Dodger games stayed under the total.
          -- Six of last seven Giant games went over the total.

          -- Seven of last ten Detroit games went over the total.
          -- Six of last eight Baltimore games stayed under total.
          -- Five of last seven Tampa Bay games went over total.
          -- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Oakland games.
          -- Six of last nine Cleveland games went over the total.
          -- Under is 8-5-3 in last ixteen Bronx road games.
          -- Under is 9-5-1 in last fifteen Angel games.

          Umpires
          -- Wsh-Phil-- Unerdogs are 7-4 in West's last eleven games.
          -- LA-SD-- Last eight Kellogg games stayed under the total.
          -- Mil-Cin-- Five of last seven Scott games went over total.
          -- Pitt-NY-- Home side won seven of last eight Cuzzi games.
          -- Mia-Atl-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Reyburn games.
          -- StL-Hst-- Six of last nine Hernandez games stayed under.
          -- Chi-Col-- Last eight Joyce games went over the total.
          -- Az-SF-- Last six Carapazza games stayed under the total.

          -- Tor-Balt-- Visiting team won seven of last eight Hallion games.
          -- KC-Det-- Visiting team won seven of last eight Guccione tilts.
          -- A's-Tex-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Wolf games.
          -- Cle-Chi-- Four of Layne's last five games went over total.
          -- NY-Min-- Under is 11-5 in last sixteen Eddings games.
          -- TB-Bos-- Home side won four of last five Diaz games.
          -- Sea-LA-- Eight of last ten Cederstrom games stayed under.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            MLB
            Short Sheet

            Wednesday, September 26

            National League

            LA Dodgers at San Diego, 6:35 ET
            Harang: LA Dodgers are 17-31 SU when playing on Wednesday
            Richard: San Diego 25-15 SU at home when the total is 7 to 8.5

            Washington at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET ESPN2
            Lannan: Washington 17-7 SU on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5
            Kendrick: Philadelphia 6-14 SU at home when the total is 8.5 to 10

            Milwaukee at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
            Marcum: Milwaukee 6-21 SU as a road underdog of +125 to +175
            Arroyo: Cincinnati 55-36 SU when the money line is -100 to -150

            Pittsburgh at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
            Locke: Pittsburgh 11-3 SU after scoring 9 runs or more
            Hefner: NY Mets 9-21 SU in home games in September

            Miami at Atlanta, 7:10 ET
            Johnson: Miami 10-27 SU after 3 games versus a division rival
            Maholm: Atlanta 11-2 SU off a one run win over a division rival

            St. Louis at Houston, 8:05 ET
            Carpenter: ST Louis 24-13 SU in road games after a win by 4 or more
            Norris: Houston 7-38 SU as an underdog of +175 to +250

            Chicago Cubs at Colorado, 8:40 ET
            Berken: Chicago Cubs 15-8 SU after allowing 10 runs or more
            Pomeranz: 0-8 TSR when the money line is +125 to -125

            Arizona at San Francisco, 10:15 ET
            Miley: Arizona 2-9 SU after 2 games with 1 or less extra base hits
            Cain: San Francisco 31-13 SU after scoring 2 runs or less


            American League

            NY Yankees at Minnesota, 1:10 ET
            Sabathia: NY Yankees 41-21 SU after 2 or more consecutive road games
            Deduno: Minnesota is 9-24 SU at home when the total is 8 to 8.5

            Toronto at Baltimore, 7:05 ET
            Villanueva: Toronto 19-30 SU after having won 2 of their last 3
            Gonzalez: Baltimore 21-13 SU at home when the total is 8 to 8.5

            Kansas City at Detroit, 7:05 ET
            Guthrie: 7-0 TSR when the total is 8 to 8.5
            Porcello: Detroit 19-25 SU when the total is 8 to 8.5

            Tampa Bay at Boston, 7:10 ET
            Cobb: Tampa Bay 11-4 SU in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7
            Lester: Boston 7-16 SU when playing on Wednesday

            Oakland at Texas, 8:05 ET ESPN
            Parker: Oakland 15-9 SU when playing on Wednesday
            Perez: Texas 9-17 SU after 3 games where they committed no errors

            Cleveland at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 ET
            Masterson: Cleveland 6-15 after a one run win
            Peavy: White Sox 14-5 SU revenging a one run loss to opponent

            Seattle at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
            Hernandez: Seattle 18-4 SU after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8
            Wilson: LA Angels are 2-7 SU at home after 7 or more home games
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #7
              Brewers desperate for a win Wednesday vs. Reds

              MILWAUKEE BREWERS (79-75)

              at CINCINNATI REDS (93-61)


              First pitch: Wednesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
              Line: Cincinnati -130, Milwaukee +120, Total: 8½

              With the Brewers 4½ games back of the NL Wild Card and desperate for wins, they will take on playoff-bound Cincinnati in game two of a three-game set on Wednesday.

              The Reds enter this game having won six of their past eight games, giving up just 2.9 runs per game in that span. That includes a 4-2 win over Milwaukee on Tuesday, the third loss in four games for the Brewers, who had won six straight contests before the slump. Though he has struggled since returning from a two-month DL stint, Shaun Marcum finally made it six innings against the Nationals last week, allowing just two earned runs in a 4-2 win. Bronson Arroyo takes the mound for the Reds with a 3.63 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 12-8 record in 2012. He has made it at least six innings in each of his past eight starts, a span in which he is 5-1. Furthermore, Great American Ballpark has not been a friendly home to the Brewers, who have lost four in a row and six of seven there this season. In the past three seasons, the Reds have claimed 18 of their past 24 home games against Milwaukee. Take CINCINNATI as slight home favorites here.

              This four-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Reds:

              CINCINNATI is 21-4 (84.0%, +16.6 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 20-game span this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 4.5, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 4*).

              The Brewers have been a miserable road team this year, going 33-46 (.418) away from Milwaukee. Although Marcum’s last start was encouraging, it is important to be wary of his numbers because since coming back from the DL—he is 0-1 with a 5.16 ERA in those six starts. And his lack of stamina since his return (4.9 innings per start) tends to be a problem because the Milwaukee bullpen has struggled in 2012 with a 4.54 ERA (4th-worst in majors) and 1.48 WHIP, converting on just 61% of save chances. Overall in 2012, Marcum is 5-4 in 19 starts with a 3.86 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. In his career, he is 0-1 (team 0-3) in three career starts versus the Reds with a 4.07 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. None of those starts were this season.

              Arroyo has been dominant at home lately with a 4-0 record and 2.97 ERA in his past five starts in Cincinnati. And the Brewers are a familiar opponent in 2012—he has already seen them four times, going 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 24 K’s in 25.2 IP. He has started a total of 25 times against Milwaukee in his career, with his team winning 16 of those games (.640) as he compiled a 13-8 record, 3.81 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. And should he falter, he has baseball’s best bullpen behind him. Cincinnati relievers have a major-league leading 2.61 ERA, which lowers to a 2.18 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and 263 strikeouts in 239.1 innings at Great American Ballpark.
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment

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