Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 09-24-2012, 07:34 PM

Nationals Begin Final Road Trip At Philadelphia

Had someone been living under a rock the past six months only to crawl out today to take their first glance at the MLB standings, they might be inclined to think there was a misprint in the NL East where the Washington Nationals rank at the top with the Philadelphia Phillies down in third.

We wouldn't blame anyone for thinking that given the preseason MLB futures odds in April. Philadelphia was priced at -185 to take home a sixth consecutive division flag with Washington (+450) expected to finish third at best. Instead, the Nationals are looking at a magic number of five to win their first division title since playing as the Expos back in 1981 while the Phillies, though mathematically still in the hunt, are relegated to playing the role of spoilers.

Washington will look to trim that magic number against the Phils beginning Tuesday when the clubs begin a 3-game series in the City of Brotherly Love. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is at 7:05 p.m. (ET) and will be delivered by Cole Hamels with the Phillies opening as $1.45 favorites. Opposing him in the all-southpaw duel is Ross Detwiler and a quick check of the Don Best Pro Odds finds a 7½-run total priced to the 'under.'

The schedule maker didn't do the Nats many favors with a tough slate to close out the 2012 campaign. Since reaching a season-high 35 games over .500 with a sweep of the Mets on Sept. 12, Washington has stumbled a bit with a 4-6 mark heading into this set at Philadelphia. That record coincidentally corresponds to the announcement the team was shutting down ace Stephen Strasburg for the season. Strasburg has missed two potential outings during the Nationals' 4-6 run.

The good news is Davey Johnson still has a quality starting quartet to take his crew into the postseason. Gio Gonzalez, who will likely make just one more start before the regular season draws to a close, leads the foursome that also includes Detwiler, Jordan Zimmermann and Edwin Jackson. That group will be backed up by a solid relief corps that is only now seeing former closer Drew Storen round into form after missing the first half with elbow trouble.

Detwiler has been on a pretty good roll since the all-star break with the Nationals 9-4 behind him in the second half. That includes a 3-0 shutout vs. Philadelphia in early-August when the former Missouri State star tossed seven shutout frames and allowed just three hits.

Three of the four losses Washington has suffered with Detwiler on the hill the past three months have come on the road. The Nationals have also dropped two of his three assignments in Philly, though Detwiler has pitched to a 2.95 ERA in his career on the Citizens Bank Park bump.

Hamels, meanwhile, has been a Nats killer with Philly sporting a 16-7 record in his 23 career outings vs. Washington and pitching to a 2.48 ERA. All three of his starts this season have been quality efforts and resulted in two Phillies wins. One note about those numbers is Hamels had never pitched at Nationals Park before this year, making 11 straight starts vs. Washington at home from 2008-11 before taking the mound in DC back in May.

Philadelphia backers have cashed in seven of Hamels' last eight starts while he has pared about a quarter-run off his season ERA since the end of July.

These outfits have seen each other 12 times already this season, and will meet once again for a 3-game series in Washington next week to close out the schedule. The Phillies have a 7-5 lead in the season series, and are 52-28 against the Nats at home since CBP opened in 2004. The last time they got together in Philly, 'under' bettors swept the set to give low-side wagers a 5-1 record in the six games played this year in Philadelphia.

A few clouds are in the forecast for Tuesday night with the thermometer in the upper-60s for the start of the game. A southerly wind (out to center) of 10 mph is also in the mix.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-24-2012, 07:37 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

September 24, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Diamondbacks are 11-0 since June 06, 2012 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $1100.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Indians are 17-0-1 OU since April 10, 2011 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $1700 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Tigers are 0-13-1 OU since May 13, 2011 when Justin Verlander starts as a 140+ favorite when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $1300 when playing the under.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Twins are 13-1-2 OU (2.2 rpg) since May 06, 2011 after scoring 3 runs or less and winning. 4-1-1 this season.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Nationals are 6-0 since July 18, 2012 when Jordan Zimmermann starts as a favorite after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $600.

-- The Royals are 5-0 since May 12, 2012 when Luke Hochevar starts on the road after giving up 2 or more home runs for a net profit of $695.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-24-2012, 07:39 PM

Hot & Not

September 24, 2012

While the National League division winners are all wrapped up, there's still plenty of work to be done in both the American League and both league's Wild Card races. Here's a look at what some of the hottest and coldest teams did over the course of the last week with the postseason right around the corner.

$$$-Makers

San Francisco Giants (6-1, $500): Now amongst the Top 5 in baseball betting profit for the year, the Giants are one of only two teams that have clinched their division's 2012 pennant. That in and of itself is a huge accomplishment considering the franchise missed out on postseason festivities a year after winning it all in 2010, and had their batting champion stripped from the line-up. Though the club is allergic to the long ball, it hits for average and throws one of the nastiest starting-fives at its opponent every passing game.

On The Docket: Though just three-games off the pace for the NL's top overall record, leapfrogging both the Reds and Nationals in the standings looks to be a stretch. They'll take their best shot at doing so this week against Arizona at home before closing their regular season campaign out on the road at San Diego and Los Angeles; the Giants check in 40-23 versus division opposition to date.

Milwaukee Brewers (5-1, $429): The Brewers once again find themselves on this list for the third straight week as their blistering month of September continues. Manager Ron Roenicke's troops had won 17 of their previous 22 games before getting destroyed in their series finale with the Nationals Monday afternoon. Still, with nine-games remaining on the 2012 docket, the Brew Crew only sits three-games back for the play-in Wild Card along with the Dodgers.

On The Docket: Milwaukee will attempt to take advantage of what it hopes will be a disinterested Reds outfit of whom their 5-7 against to date before returning home to host the Astros and Padres in their final two series of the regular season; the Brew Crew sits a hefty 17-games over .500 as a host ($1032).

Arizona Diamondbacks (5-1, $389): Hanging on for dear life are last year's surprising NL West winners. Manager Kirk Gibson's squad has had every opportunity to fold up shop, but they haven't, and that speaks volumes about the winning mentality this franchise now possesses. The Snakes currently have the largest deficit to make up of the still contending teams for the play-in Wild Card (4.5 games), but the remainder of their slate looks very promising.

On The Docket: Zona will attempt to pull off the four-game sweep of the Rockies in Coors on Monday night before traveling to San Francisco where they hope many of the Giants regulars will be resting. From there, they return home to host the Cubs and Rockies; two teams that sit a combined 71-games under .500. The D'Backs have won 11 of their L/12 versus teams playing sub .400 ball.

Honorable Mentions: Baltimore Orioles (5-1, $409), New York Yankees (5-1, $345), St. Louis Cardinals (5-1, $327), Kansas City Royals (4-2, $207), Atlanta Braves (4-2, $196), Tampa Bay Rays (5-2, $149), Los Angeles Angels (4-2, $139)

$$$-Burners

Colorado Rockies (0-7, -$700): The Rockies continue to burn their betting backers every chance they get, as Manager Jim Tracy's squad managed to come out on the short end of each and every one of their game's played last week. This club's won just five of its 22 played games in September (-$1030), and if not for the Houston Astros, it would be the biggest money-burner the National League has to offer (-$2378).

On The Docket: The Rox will continue playing the role of everyone else's piñata only 10 more times. They actually might even be able to win a couple games in their Coors Field finale against the woeful Chicago Cubs. That said, the Cargo-less Rockies have dropped five of their L/6 as hosts.

Toronto Blue Jays (0-6, -$600): At one point this season, you couldn't name a single starter in the Blue Jays starting rotation. Well, there was Ricky Romero, but the lefty has turned into nothing short of an afterthought as poor a 2012 campaign as he's had. Though Toronto brings up the rear of the AL East, the team possesses a ton of talent on its roster. Unfortunately, the injury bug was none to kind to them this season. That should however have them amped up and ready to go for 2013 since injuries very rarely plague a team in consecutive seasons.

On The Docket: Not surprisingly, the Blue Jays were dogged in each and every one of their games played last week, and that trend should continue moving forward with them set to take on both the Orioles and Yankees before putting the finishing touches on a disappointing season back at home against the Twins.

Chicago Cubs (1-6, -$449): Last but not least are the "Loveable Losers" from the North Side of Chicago. Manager Dale Sveum had to of known he was up against it before taking the gig, but now that he's 153 games into the rebuilding project, do you think he's suffering from managing remorse. Plenty more defeats are sure to be in store for this franchise as Theo and Jed look to retool the roster, but if Chicago is to continue being as bad as it's been for a couple more seasons, they might have to actually start giving tickets away at the corner of Sheffield and Addison.

On The Docket: Thankfully, the 2012 campaign will be over in just nine short games. Trips to Coors and Chase Field are up first before the Cubbies fittingly close out their season against the Houston Astros - the worst bet in all of baseball - whom they'll be taking on in NL Central play for the last time ever.

Dishonorable Mentions: Miami Marlins (1-5, -$351), Chicago White Sox (2-5, -$334), Pittsburgh Pirates (2-5, -$333)

**StarDust Bum** · 09-24-2012, 07:41 PM

Tigers favored big over Royals on Monday

KANSAS CITY ROYALS (70-82)

at DETROIT TIGERS (80-72)

First pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -270, Kansas City +235, Total: 7½

One game back in the AL Central, the Tigers need to do work against the Kansas City Royals, with their four-game series beginning Monday night.

The Tigers enter this game in desperate need of a win after getting swept in a double-header by the lowly Twins on Sunday. Ace Justin Verlander will look to right the ship with a 2.74 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the season. Though he was shelled in his last start against them, he historically dominates the Royals with a 14-2 career record, 2.76 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Luke Hochevar, however, has never been able to figure out the Tigers—in 11 career starts he is 4-5 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. His numbers on the season—8-14 record, 5.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP—are no more encouraging, neither are his three most recent starts, a span in which he has a 5.89 ERA. Even as super heavy favorites, take DETROIT in what has become nearly a must-win game for them.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Tigers:

Play On - Any team (DETROIT) - revenging a 3-game sweep at the hands of their opponents, off a loss to a division rival as a favorite. (39-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.9%, +28 units. Rating = 3*).

When Verlander pitched against the Royals August 28, he had possibly his worst start of the season, allowing 12 hits and eight earned runs in 5.2 innings. But his impressive career numbers given such a rough start only speaks to his historical dominance of the Royals. The Tigers are 16-6 in his 22 career starts against them. Although Detroit has lost three of its past four contests, this game is critical. And averaging 7.6 innings per start at home, Verlander doesn’t make much use of his bullpen, but he’ll find solid support back there if needed, with his relievers sporting a 3.30 home ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

Hochevar may need the bullpen more given the way he’s been battered around lately and his paltry 5.8 innings per start on the season. The good news is Kansas City relievers have a 2.99 ERA and 1.30 WHIP and a 2.72 ERA on the road. The Royals also enter this game hot, having won four of their past five. They held their opponents, Chicago and Cleveland, to three runs or less in four of those five games, but the Indians put the Royals in their place Sunday night with a 15-4 win.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-24-2012, 07:46 PM

Sept Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/24/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
09/23/12 16-*13-*1 55.17% +*2640 Detail
09/22/12 16-*13-*1 55.17% +*1225 Detail
09/21/12 12-*14-*0 46.15% -*1110 Detail
09/20/12 10-*14-*0 41.67% -*2340 Detail
09/19/12 15-*18-*1 45.45% -*2160 Detail
09/18/12 13-*11-*0 54.17% +*1345 Detail
09/17/12 4-*8-*1 33.33% -*2735 Detail
09/16/12 12-*18-*0 40.00% -*4075 Detail
09/15/12 14-*12-*0 53.85% +*1210 Detail
09/14/12 9-*19-*0 32.14% -*5985 Detail
09/13/12 8-*8-*0 50.00% +*380 Detail
09/12/12 18-*10-*0 64.29% +*4015 Detail
09/11/12 11-*19-*0 36.67% -*4225 Detail
09/10/12 11-*8-*1 57.89% +*1535 Detail
09/09/12 16-*11-*1 59.26% +*3980 Detail
09/08/12 9-*7-*2 56.25% +*895 Detail
09/07/12 15-*14-*1 51.72% +*215 Detail
09/06/12 5-*5-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/05/12 9-*5-*2 64.29% +*1985 Detail
09/04/12 17-*9-*3 65.38% +*5270 Detail
09/03/12 17-*11-*0 60.71% +*3655 Detail
09/02/12 18-*11-*1 62.07% +*3840 Detail
09/01/12 14-*13-*2 51.85% -*735 Detail

Totals 289-*273-*17 51.42% +7675

Toronto - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore -203 500
Baltimore - Over 9 500

Kansas City - 7:05 PM ET Kansas City +246 500
Detroit - Over 7.5 500

Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +106 500
NY Mets - Under 8 500

St. Louis - 8:05 PM ET St. Louis -215 500
Houston - Under 8 500

Oakland - 8:05 PM ET Oakland +158 500
Texas - Over 9.5 500

NY Yankees - 8:10 PM ET Minnesota +161 500
Minnesota - Over 9 500

Cleveland - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -243 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 8.5 500

Arizona - 8:40 PM ET Colorado +136 500
Colorado - Over 10.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 09-24-2012, 07:49 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, September 24

Hot pitchers
-- Estrada is 2-1, 1.75 in his last four starts. Zimmerman is 2-0, 2.50 in his last three outings.
-- Lynn is 2-0, 0.73 in his last couple starts.
-- Cahill is 3-0, 2.79 in his last three starts.

-- Verlander won his last two starts, tossing 13 shutout innings.
-- Chen is 0-0, 2.84 in his last couple starts. SJohnson won both his '12 starts, allowing two runs in six IP. Last start was August 25.
-- Straily is 2-0, 2.08 in two road starts this season. Holland is 2-0, 2.17 in his last four starts.
-- Sale is 2-1, 1.93 in his last three starts.
-- Pettitte is 2-1, 2.89 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- McPherson lost his first start, allowing two runs in 4.1 IP. Mejia lost his first start, allowing five runs in three IP.
-- Abad is 0-5, 6.97 in his last five starts.
-- Chatwood is 0-2, 8.62 in his last four starts.

-- Hochevar is 1-3, 8.04 in his last five starts.
-- Alvarez is 2-6, 6.52 in his last nine starts. Romero is 0-6, 6.69 in his last seven outings.
-- McAllister is 0-4, 7.94 in his last five starts.
-- Hendriks is 1-1, 4.71 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Brewers won 25 of their last 32 games.
-- Cardinals won six of their last seven games. Astros are actually 8-8 in their last sixteen games.
-- Arizona won six of its last seven games.

-- Royals won four of their last five games.
-- Orioles won six of their last seven games.
-- Bronx won nine of its last 11 games. Minnesota won four of six.

Cold Teams
-- Washington lost six of its last nine games.
-- Pirates lost 12 of their last 16 games. Mets lost 10 of their last 14.
-- Rockies lost 16 of their last 18 games.

-- Tigers lost three of their last four games.
-- Blue Jays lost ten of their last twelve games.
-- Athletics lost five of their last seven games. Texas is 4-9 in game following its last 13 wins.
-- White Sox lost their last five games, scoring eight runs. Indians lost 11 of their last 15 games.

Totals
-- Over is 15-7-1 in last 23 Milwaukee games.
-- Under is 21-11-1 in Mets' last 33 games.
-- Seven of last eleven St Louis games stayed under total.
-- 12 of last 14 Colorado games went over the total.

-- Six of last eight Detroit games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Baltimore games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Oakland games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-5-1 in last fourteen Bronx road games.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-24-2012, 07:53 PM

MLB

Monday, September 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Athletics at Rangers: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers (-168, 9.5)

The Texas Rangers can move closer to clinching the American League West crown when they open a pivotal four-game series against the visiting Oakland Athletics on Monday. Texas has a four-game lead over Oakland with 10 to play and can sew up the division by sweeping the Athletics. Oakland can make things interesting by closing the gap this week as the two teams finish the season next week with three games in the Bay Area.

The Athletics have a 2 1/2-game lead over the Los Angeles Angels for the AL’s second wild card. Oakland has lost five of its last seven games and is 2-4 during a 10-game road trip. The status of Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton is still fuzzy due to sinus issues that have affected his vision. Hamilton has missed five consecutive games. The Rangers have won 90 games for the third straight season and sixth time in franchise history. The teams have split 12 games this year.

TV: 8:05 p.m. ET, Comcast SportsNet California (Oakland), Fox Sports Southwest (Texas)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Athletics RH Daniel Straily (2-1, 4.13 ERA) vs. Rangers LH Derek Holland (11-6, 4.42)

Straily is making his sixth start of the season. He lost to the Baltimore Orioles in his last outing by allowing four runs and five hits in 4 2/3 innings. Straily has surrendered eight homers in just 28 1/3 innings.

Holland has won four consecutive decisions since his last loss on July 31. He defeated the Los Angeles Angels in his last start when he gave up two runs and six hits in seven innings. Holland has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last four outings. He defeated Oakland on June 5 when he gave up three runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings to raise his career mark against the Athletics to 4-1 in 10 appearances (seven starts).

TRENDS:

* Oakland is 3-11 in its last 14 games in Texas.
* Over is 6-1 in Athletics’ last seven overall.
* Rangers are 5-1 in Holland’s last six starts vs. Athletics.
* Athletics are 4-1 in Straily’s last five starts.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Oakland OF Josh Reddick is batting just .138 in September and is hitless in 24 at-bats over the past five games.

2. Rangers C/DH Mike Napoli is batting .389 with three homers in six games since returning from a quadriceps injury.

3. Athletics OF Coco Crisp is questionable due to the bout with pink eye that has forced him to miss five straight starts.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-24-2012, 07:57 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, September 24

National League

Milwaukee at Washington, 1:05 ET
Estrada: Milwaukee 10-26 SU as a road underdog
Zimmermann: Washington 27-11 SU vs. NL Central opponents

Pittsburgh at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
McPherson: Pittsburgh 5-16 SU in September
Mejia: Mets 22-9 Over off 6+ division games

St. Louis at Houston, 8:05 ET
Lynn: 12-1 TSR vs. division opponents
Abad: Houston 1-10 SU revenging a three-game sweep

Arizona at Colorado, 8:40 ET
Cahill: 7-1 TSR away in night games
Chatwood: Colorado 10-29 SU after allowing 8+ runs

American League

Kansas City at Detroit, 7:05 ET
Hochevar: Kansas City 4-17 SU off a division loss by 6+ runs
Verlander: 20-3 TSR at home in the second half of the season

Toronto at Baltimore, 7:05 ET Game Two
Romero: 1-13 TSR in the second half of the season
Chen: 9-2 Under vs. division opponents

Oakland at Texas, 8:05 ET
Straily: Oakland 15-3 SU off 6+ road games
Holland: 11-3 Over as a home favorite of -150 to -200

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 ET
McAllister: Cleveland 18-35 SU playing with double-revenge
Sale: White Sox 21-7 SU at home off 5+ losses

NY Yankees at Minnesota, 8:10 ET
Pettitte: Yankees 18-6 Under off BB Overs
Hendriks: Minnesota 13-35 SU as a home underdog of +125 or higher

Write-In Game

Toronto at Baltimore, 4:05 ET Game One
Alvarez: 6-15 TSR with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs
Johnson: Baltimore 30-15 SU in day games

Announcement

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