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[StarDust Bum]

Athletics, Yankees Fight For Playoff Positioning In New York

Lots of pundits keep waiting for the bottom to drop out for the Oakland A’s. By now, however, it’s getting to the point that if and when it happens might be sometime in the postseason as the Billy Beanes close in on one the most-unlikely playoff berths in recent years.

The A’s and their modest $55 million payroll, however, aren’t there yet, and must run a nasty gauntlet over the last two weeks of the season that includes home-and-home series with the AL West leading Rangers plus this weekend set in The Bronx against the Yankees.

But we’d be fools to forecast doom for Oakland, as have so many others. The A’s have displayed admirable fortitude all season long as they have persevered through injuries (including pitcher Brandon McCarthy’s scary head injury when hit by a line drive two weeks ago) and even suspension (Bartolo Colon) yet have not skipped a beat, especially since June 1 when sitting 8 games under .500. Entering Friday’s series opener at Yankee Stadium, Oakland had gone 63-34 since, a cool .649 winning rate, and a big reason the A’s rate behind only Baltimore as in the MLB “money leaders” standings at +1884 units into Friday’s opener.

And when teetering earlier in the week after losing thee first two of a three-game set at Detroit, Oakland admirably restored order and easily averted a sweep when swamping the Tigers by a 12-4 count on Thursday.

After Friday’s matchup between Jarrod Parker and CC Sabathia, the A’s and Yanks play the middle game of this three-game weekend set on Saturday afternoon at Yankee Stadium. Oakland will be sending young Travis Blackley to the mound to oppose New York’s Ivan Nova, and make sure to check out the latest Don Best MLB odds.

First pitch will be at 1:05 p.m. (ET), although for TV coverage you’ll either have to access your MLB package or extended cable TV. We might prefer Oakland’s Comcast Bay Area feed, with Glen Kuiper and the best color man in the business, Ray Fosse, over the YES telecast which will require listening to a lot of Michael Kay.

We know Yankee fans are going to prefer the latter, but we strongly suggest the A’s telecast if you have a choice.

Of course, the Yankees are in a dogfight themselves for the AL East crown, although their playoff prospects look a lot more secure at the moment than they did a week ago. With Tampa Bay and the Angels slipping off the pace, it would seem unlikely that New York could miss an AL postseason slot. There’s still a battle being waged with a gallant Orioles team (just one game behind the Bronx Bombers entering this weekend) for the top spot in the East, but even if the Yanks conspire to lose the division race they would seem to be close to a sure thing to qualify as an AL wild card.

In which case they might be facing the A’s in the one-game playoff in less than two weeks, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

As for the Yankees, they were no doubt encouraged by the most-recent start made by Nova, who went six strong innings last Saturday vs. Tampa Bay, allowing just 4 hits and 2 runs while striking out 8 in a 5-3 Yankee win. It was Nova’s return from a stint on the DL due to a sore shoulder and roughly coincided with another starting pitcher, Andy Pettitte, also resurfacing from the DL to give Joe Girardi his full complement of pitchers as he gears up for the postseason.

Over the past week, SS Derek Jeter returned to the everyday lineup after serving only in a DH capacity for a week after suffering a bruised heel. Slugging 1B Mark Teixeira, however, remains on the MLB injury report until later next week (at the earliest) as he continues to be burdened by a calf strain.

As for Nova, he’s faced Oakland twice this season, earning a win back on May 25 and then not figuring in the decision of a 3-2 loss on July 20. Both of those games were at the Coliseum and mark the only times in Nova’s career that he has faced the A’s. Overall this season, Nova’s numbers have not been terribly impressive (including a 4.85 ERA) despite his 12-7 record.

As for Oakland counterpart Blackley, he returns to the rotation and makes his first start since August 29 when the A’s beat Cleveland, 8-4. Manager Bob Melvin wanted to pitch the lefty Blackley against the Yankees in this game, a decision that was made even before Brett Anderson went down with an oblique strain earlier this week. This Saturday start was originally slated for Dan Straily, who will now instead pitch on Monday against the Rangers.

This will be the first time Blackley has faced the Yankees in his career.

The A’s are hopeful that catalyst OF Coco Crisp will be available for the Saturday contest and this series after missing three of four previous games heading into this weekend due to a bothersome case of conjunctivitis in both eyes. Meanwhile, slugging OF Yoenis Cespedes has been suffering from a bruised right foot but has continued to play and produce.

These teams have met in a pair of series earlier this season at the Coliseum with contrasting results, as the Yankees swept a 3-game set in late May before Oakland returned the favor, and then some, with a 4-game sweep not long after the All-Star break.

The Yankees entered this series having won five straight games, while the A’s had won 13 of their last 16 on the road prior to Friday night’s encounter.

[StarDust Bum]

Reds Host Dodgers on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball

It should be celebration time this weekend for the Cincinnati Reds, who entered this three-game set with the Dodgers with a magic number of a scant two to win the NL Central crown for the second time in three seasons.

By the time this Sunday night matchup rolls around, the Reds might already have that division crown in their back pocket. But don’t think for a second that Cincinnati is about to shift into cruise control once the playoff berth is secured.

No, the Reds need to keep winning to pressure Washington in hopes of overhauling the Nationals for the best record in the NL. With that comes home-field edge throughout the playoffs and into the World Series, with the NL side also getting the home edge in the Fall Classic due to the winning result in July’s All-Star game. Conversely, a slump could threaten Cincy’s status as the number two NL seed into the postseason with the surging San Francisco Giants (also likely to be crowned NL West champions this weekend) lurking not too far behind.

So, every game remains important in these final two weeks for the Reds, including the Sunday nighter at Great American Ballpark against the visiting Dodgers. We know the Reds will be giving the ball to Homer Bailey...more on him in a moment.

Into the opener of the series on Friday night, however, it was unclear what the Dodgers would be doing for a starting pitcher, with Clayton Kershaw’s sore hip and a midweek rainout at Washington wreaking havoc with Don Mattingly’s rotation. With Kershaw temporarily on ice, and Stephen Fife forced into the start on Saturday, it appears as if L.A. is going to have to scramble for a starter on Sunday.

Either Mattingly gives the ball to Aaron Harang or Josh Beckett (who pitched both ends of Wednesday’s doubleheader at Washington) on three days' rest or he gives the start to John Ely, who won the Pacific Coast League pitching triple crown this year in his time with Triple-A Albuquerque. Ely has a 20.25 ERA in two games in relief since getting promoted, but he might be the Dodgers' only realistic alternative for Sunday. The only other option would be to use mostly relievers in a bullpen game.

Whatever, action will commence at 8:05 p.m. (ET) on Sunday night, with the regular ESPN crew of Dan Shulman, Orel Hershiser, and Terry Francona on hand to describe the action. Make sure to check out the latest MLB odds before the first pitch.

While the Reds prepare for the postseason, the Dodgers entered this weekend clearly in scramble mode as they had fallen three games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the final NL wild card berth, and as of Friday had even dropped behind the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers in chasing the Cardinals.

It’s all a far cry from the first 2 ½ months of the season when the season was one big parade for the Dodgers, who were on pace to crack 100 wins until well after Memorial Day.

Since mid-June, however, it’s all gone pear-shaped for the Blue, at one point 42-25 but only 35-48 since (entering Friday). And the downturn has certainly not been down to any inactivity by the front office, which wheeled and dealed before and after the trade deadline with a series of blockbuster additions which have yet to translate into sustained success.

Injuries have been another problem for the Dodgers, beginning with Matt Kemp’s recurring hamstring problems after his quick break from the gate hinted at a possible Tripe Crown season. Instead, Kemp’s recurring woes with his hammy resulted in two separate stints on the DL covering almost seven weeks before the All-Star break, by which point the Dodgers were in full retreat.

L.A. has also been hampered lately by injury problems to its pitching staff, with not only Kershaw forced into inactivity the past ten days but also Chad Billingsley forced to the DL last month after providing the Dodgers with lots of hope after he won six straight decisions into mid August before being shut down with elbow problems.

Pitching, however, has not been the bane of L.A. in recent weeks. Rather, it’s been lack of run production from a diva-laden, homerun-happy lineup characterized by free swings from Kemp and SS Hanley Ramirez which have resulted in few sustained rallies. The Dodgers entered this weekend having scored more than three runs just four times in their last nineteen games, helping result in a 14-4-1 ‘under’ mark in those games entering Friday. The Blue had also dropped 15 of its last 23 before Friday’s series opener.

As promised earlier, a word on Reds starter Bailey, whose recent efforts have been outstanding. Bailey has wins in his last two starts but has been pitching lights-out for the past couple of weeks. Indeed, over his last four starts, he’s allowed only five runs total while allowing only 18 hits and striking out 26 in 29 IP. His ERA over that span is a hard-to-detect 1.55. Bailey is also 3-1 in his career vs. the Vin Scullys.

The Dodgers took 2 of 3 from the Reds in early July at Chavez Ravine but didn’t face Bailey in that series. And like a lot of other things, much is different in L.A. than it was earlier in the season.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Sunday

September 23, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Blue Jays are 0-13 since May 25, 2012 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $1300 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Angels are 0-14-1 OU since April 10, 2011 when playing a day game as a 140+ favorite after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1400 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Brewers are 19-0 since June 24, 2010 when Yovani Gallardo starts as a favorite after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $1900.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Yankees are 9-0 since September 16, 2009 when playing at least their eighth straight home game if not more than a -300 favorite.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Cardinals are 8-0 since April 21, 2011 when Kyle Lohse starts as a 140+ favorite when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $800.

-- The Diamondbacks are 9-0 since June 22, 2011 when Ian Kennedy starts as a favorite after winning as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $900.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, September 23

Hot pitchers
-- Nolasco is 3-0, 1.80 in his last four starts.
-- Bailey is 2-0, 1.55 in his last four starts.
-- Gallardo is 2-0, 1.83 in his last three starts.
-- Lohse is 1-1, 2.33 in his last three starts.
-- Kennedy is 3-0, 1.98 in his last four starts.
-- Stults is 3-1, 2.37 in his last five starts. Lincecum is 3-0, 2.52 in his last four outings.
-- Lee is 4-0, 1.27 in his last five starts.

-- Griffin is 3-1, 2.52 in his last four starts.
-- Scherzer is 5-0, 1.20 in his last seven starts, but left his last outing in third inning with a tired shoulder.
-- Tillman is 2-0, 1.69 in his last three starts.
-- Weaver is 2-1, 2.33 in his last three starts.
-- Dempster is 5-1, 3.47 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Young is 1-2, 4.66 in his last five starts.
-- Harang is 0-3, 4.97 in his last five starts.
-- Wang is 1-3, 6.62 in four starts this season.
-- Lyles is 1-1, 5.49 in his last four starts. Burnett is 0-4, 5.22 in his last five.
-- Germano is 0-6, 8.79 in his last six starts.
-- Francis is 0-2, 6.75 in his last four starts.
-- Hudson is 2-2, 4.94 in his last four starts.

-- Kuroda is 2-2, 4.67 in his last five starts.
-- Walters is 0-3, 12.86 in his last four starts. Diamond is 1-3, 7.33 in his last four starts. Smyly has a 5.82 RA in his last four starts, last fo which was on August 25.
-- Doubrant is 1-4, 7.22 in his last six starts.
-- Cobb is 1-1, 4.84 in his last four starts. Jenkins has allowed 10 runs in 18.1 IP in big leagues this year; he was 5-9, 4.96 in 20 starts at AA this summer.
-- Huff allowed three runs in 4.1 IP in his first '12 start.
-- Kansas City's big pitching prospect Odorizzi was 15-5, 3.03 in minors this year, mostly in AA.
-- Floyd has a 5.51 RA in his last seven starts.
-- Vargas is 1-2, 5.18 in his last four starts.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals won five of their last six games.
-- Brewers won 24 of their last 31 games.
-- Phillies won 20 of their last 27 games. Atlanta won six of its last eight.
-- Reds won five of their last six games.
-- Astros are actually 8-7 in their last fifteen games.
-- Arizona won five of its last six games.
-- Giants won 18 of their last 24 games.

-- Bronx won nine of its last ten games.
-- Tigers won seven of their last ten games.
-- Tampa Bay won its last four games, scoring 43 runs.
-- Orioles won their last six games, scoring 39 runs.
-- Royals won last four games, allowing nine runs.
-- Angels won 17 of their last 24 games.
-- Rangers are 12-1 in game following their last 13 losses.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost six of their last eight games.
-- Washington lost five of its last eight games.
-- Mets lost ten of their last thirteen games. Miami lost eight of last 11.
-- Dodgers lost eleven of their last sixteen games.
-- Pirates lost 12 of their last 15 games.
-- Rockies lost 15 of their last 17 games.
-- San Diego lost four of its last five games.

-- Oakland lost five of its last six games.
-- Twins lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Red Sox lost 18 of their last 24 games.
-- Blue Jays lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Indians lost 11 of their last 14 games.
-- White Sox lost last four games, scoring seven runs.
-- Mariners lost six of their last nine games.

Totals
-- Seven of last ten St Louis games stayed under total.
-- 15 of last 22 Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Under is 12-5-1 in last eighteen Atlanta games.
-- Under is 20-11-1 in Mets' last 32 games.
-- Ten of last thirteen Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Pittsburgh games.
-- 11 of last 13 Colorado games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven San Francisco games went over total.

-- Seven of last eleven Bronx games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Detroit games went over (after a 19-2-2 under run).
-- Four of last five Boston games went over the total.
-- Last five Tampa Bay games went over the total.
-- Four of last six Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Under is 12-2-2 in White Sox' last sixteen road games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Texas road games.

Umpires
-- Mil-Wsh-- Underdogs are 9-4 in last thirteen TBarrett games.
-- Mia-NY-- Last seven Schrieber games went over the total.
-- StL-Chi-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Bucknor games; underdogs won six of his last seven games behind the plate.
-- Atl-Phil-- Visiting team won five of last six Barry games.
-- Pitt-Hst-- Over is 6-0 in Timmons games if total is 9.5 or higher; 6-17 if the total is 9 or lower.
-- LA-Cin-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Holbrook games.
-- Az-Col-- Underdogs won last five Nelson games.
-- SD-SF-- 15 of 16 Baker games stayed under the total.

-- Blt-Bos-- Eight of last eleven Porter games went over total.
-- Min-Det-- Four of last five Hallion games stayed under. Eight of last nine O'Nora games also stayed under.
-- Tex-Sea-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Danley games.
-- A's-NY-- Six of last seven Estabrook games stayed under.
-- Tor-TB-- Bob Davidson has no discernable trends as an umpire, besides fact that he calls too many balks.
-- Cle-KC-- Home side won seven of last nine Ripperger games.
-- Chi-LA-- Home side won last eight Hickox games, with four of his last five games going over the total.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, September 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oakland - 1:05 PM ET Oakland +146 500
NY Yankees - Over 8.5 500

Minnesota - 1:05 PM ET Minnesota +231 500
Detroit - Under 8 500

Miami - 1:10 PM ET Miami -101 500
NY Mets - Over 8 500

Baltimore - 1:35 PM ET Baltimore -117 500
Boston - Over 9 500

Atlanta - 1:35 PM ET Atlanta +134 500
Philadelphia - Over 7 500

Milwaukee - 1:35 PM ET Milwaukee -133 500
Washington - Over 8 500

Toronto - 1:40 PM ET Tampa Bay -243 500
Tampa Bay - Under 8 500

Pittsburgh - 2:05 PM ET Houston +123 500
Houston - Over 8 500

Cleveland - 2:10 PM ET Kansas City -120 500
Kansas City - Over 9 500

St. Louis - 2:20 PM ET St. Louis -175 500
Chi. Cubs - Under 8 500

Arizona - 3:10 PM ET Arizona -138 500
Colorado - Under 10.5 500

Chi. White Sox - 3:35 PM ET Chi. White Sox +178 500
LA Angels - Under 7.5 500

San Diego - 4:05 PM ET San Francisco +127 500
San Francisco - Over 7.5 500

Texas - 4:10 PM ET Seattle +136 500
Seattle - Under 7 500

Minnesota - 7:05 PM ET Minnesota +215 500
Detroit - Under 9 500