The Bum's Thursday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Tigers And Athletics Close Series At Comerica Park

It's getaway day in Motown on Thursday when the Detroit Tigers wrap up a big 3-game set with the Oakland Athletics.

First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. (ET) with Anibal Sanchez on the hill for Jim Leyland's Tigers. Bob Melvin counters with Tommy Milone for the A's. The Motor City squad went out as an early $150 favorite with the MLB odds board showing an 8½-run total.

Detroit drew first blood in the series opener on Tuesday, an easy 12-2 victory behind Miguel Cabrera's big stick. The victory still left the Tigers 3-games behind the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central and 5.5 out of a wild card entry. Oakland remained three back of the Texas Rangers in the AL West, and a half-game in front of the Yankees and Orioles, one of which will win the AL East, for the top wild card slot in the Junior Circuit.

Tuesday's victory might have come with a cost for Leyland's crew as starting pitcher Max Scherzer exited the game with what is being described as "shoulder fatigue." The good news is there doesn't appear to be anything wrong with his right shoulder, and the Tigers are hoping that a short amount of rest will do the trick.

The middle game of the contest on Wednesday pitted Brett Anderson vs. Justin Verlander, and was still pending with the Tigers decided favorites at -170.

Oakland is enduring a very difficult closing stretch on the schedule with this road trip continuing into New York against the Yankees and then on to Texas following Thursday's matinee. Things started well by taking five of seven from the Angels and Orioles last week, but the A's need to rekindle some of their road magic from earlier when they won 12 straight away from home.

Milone has been solid of late, both at home and on the road, with the Athletics winning five of the southpaw's last six assignments. The rookie out of USC also found success against this Tigers batting order back in May when he worked seven frames and allowed just one earned run to grab the cash as a +115 underdog. Heading into Wednesday's game against another Oakland left-hander in Anderson, Detroit was 23-22 against southpaws.

Sanchez didn't get off to a great start with the Tigers following his trade from Miami, and the Tigers are just 3-6 in his nine assignments so far. However, he has pitched well enough to have won his last five outings only to get very little help from his lineup or defense while posting a 2.07 ERA in that span (Tigers 2-3).

Thursday will be Sanchez's first career appearance vs. the Athletics.

There is a 40 percent chance of morning showers in the Detroit area on Thursday, but the weatherman says that should clear off by the afternoon. The high is only expected to climb into the low-70s with a 10-12 mph wind from the SW (in from right).

Veteran Gary Darling is in line to have plate duty for the series finale. Now in his 25th season as an MLB umpire, the native San Franciscan's previous 33 times to call balls and strikes this season have resulted in a 17-16 'over' mark.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Thursday

September 20, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Cubs are 0-13 since April 11, 2012 when playing a day game as a dog after allowing 6+ runs in a night game for a net profit of $1300 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Cardinals are 11-0 OU since June 19, 2011 when Jaime Garcia starts as a favorite when he is off a start in which their team scored first and lost for a net profit of $1105 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Astros are 0-12 since May 26, 2012 when Bud Norris starts on the road for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Blue Jays are 1-37 since May 2009 as an away dog when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they allowed at least four walks, as long as they did not hold a three-plus run lead.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Reds are 6-0 since April 22, 2012 when Johnny Cueto starts on the road when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $660.

-- The Red Sox are 5-0 since June 01, 2012 when Clay Buchholz starts on the road after a quality start for a net profit of $505.

[StarDust Bum]

Dodgers take on Nats in Thursday rubber match

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (77-72)

at WASHINGTON NATIONALS (90-58)


First pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Washington -125, Los Angeles +115, Total: 8

After tying up the series Wednesday with a 7-6 victory, the Dodgers will look to win the rubber game Thursday against the Nationals and stay in the NL playoff picture.

Two lefties will duel in this game with Ross Detwiler and Chris Capuano taking the hill. Capuano is coming off a rough start in which he did not make it out of the fifth inning, allowing four runs (two earned) on six hits and three home runs. He has an 11-10 record, 3.60 ERA and 1.19 WHIP this year, though his road splits—4.30 ERA and 1.27 WHIP— are noticeably worse. Detwiler is coming off a gem against the Braves, having allowed just one earned run over six innings. He has a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts and an overall 3.33 ERA this season, working his way to an 8-6 record as a starter. Detwiler is even better at home where he has a 6-2 record as a starter with a 2.82 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, leading his club to a 10-3 mark in these home starts. That fits right in line with the Nationals’ dominance at home where they have a 45-28 record (.616), tying them for the third-best mark in the majors. Take WASHINGTON as slight favorites here.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Nationals:

Play On - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (WASHINGTON) - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games. (57-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (75%, +33.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Detwiler hasn’t lost since Aug. 22, leading his team to a 3-1 record in his past four starts. He has started against Los Angeles once this year, a loss on April 27 in which he allowed three earned runs in six innings. Overall, in two career starts against the Dodgers, he is 0-1 (team 1-1) with a 4.63 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Going deep into games is not one of Detwiler’s strengths, he averages just 5.7 innings per start, but that works to his benefit with the National bullpen supporting him. Nationals relievers have a 3.20 ERA, 24-17 record and 48 saves on the season. Although the Nationals have lost four of their past five contests, look for them to reverse their fortunes here.

Capuano threw a gem against the Nationals earlier this season on April 29, allowing just three hits over 6.2 shutout innings. Overall he is 3-3 (team 3-4) in his career against them with a 3.72 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Although the Dodgers have won three straight Capuano starts, he individually is 0-2 in his past six outings with Los Angeles falling in the previous three. Dating back to June 28, he is 2-8, while his team is 6-9 over these 15 starts. He’s averaged a mere 5.4 innings per start in his past three outings, but he can’t really count on L.A.’s bullpen to bail him out again, considering it has a 4.18 ERA on the road this season. The Dodgers are 4-1 against the Nats this year and are in more need of a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, trailing both Atlanta and St. Louis by two games in the NL Wild Card race. Still, avoid L.A. without too much help from the lines.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, September 20

Hot pitchers
-- Norris has a 3.00 RA in his last three starts, but has zero wins in his last 17 starts; his last win was May 21.
-- Richard is 4-0, 3.18 in his last five starts.
-- Zito won his last two starts, allowing one run in 13 IP.
-- WRodriguez is 3-0, 2.10 in his last four starts.
-- Detwiler is 2-0, 3.42 in his last four starts.

-- Milone is 2-0, 2.92 in his last couple starts. ASanchez is 2-2, 2.70 in his last five outings.
-- Hughes is 3-1, 3.20 in his last four starts.
-- Price is 4-1, 2.27 in his last seven starts.
-- Guthrie is 2-0, 1.48 in his last four starts.
-- Darvish is 3-0, 1.86 in his last four starts. Greinke is 4-0, 1.70 in his last five outings.

Cold pitchers
-- JGarcia is 1-3, 5.53 in his last five starts.
-- Cueto is 0-3, 8.22 in his last three starts. Berken allowed six runs (only two earned) in four IP in his first '12 start.
-- Skaggs is 0-2, 7.13 in his last four starts.
-- De La Rosa is making first '12 start after being hurt; he is 54-49, 4.90 in his 126 career starts.
-- Fiers is 1-2, 7.43 in his last three starts.
-- Capuano is 0-2, 6.23 in his last six starts.
-- Cloyd is 1-1, 4.95 in his last four starts. Hefner is 0-2, 5.40 in his last four.

-- EVasquez is 0-2, 7.54 in three starts this season. Kluber is 1-2, 6.53 in his last four starts.
-- Laffey is 0-3, 5.12 in his last seven starts.
-- Buchholz is 0-3, 5.40 in his last five starts.
-- Liriano is 1-1, 6.75 in his last four outings.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals won their last three games, allowing three runs.
-- Brewers won 22 of their last 28 games.
-- Phillies won 18 of their last 25 games.
-- Reds won 10 of their last 14 road games.
-- Padres won nine of last 13 games, but lost last two. Arizona won its last three games, scoring 19 runs.
-- Giants won 15 of their last 21 games.

-- Twins won three of their last four road games.
-- Bronx won six of its last seven games.
-- Red Sox won four of their last six games.
-- White Sox won five of their last six games.
-- Tigers won six of their last eight games.
-- Angels won 15 of their last 21 games. Texas is 10-6 in its last 16.

Cold Teams
-- Astros lost 11 of their last 15 road games.
-- Cubs lost four of their last five games.
-- Pirates lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Washington lost four of its last five games. Dodgers lost nine of their last thirteen.
-- Mets lost ten of their last eleven games.
-- Rockies lost 12 of their last 14 games.

-- Indians lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Blue Jays lost six of their last eight games.
-- Tampa Bay lost ten of its last fourteen games.
-- Royals lost four of their last six games.
-- Oakland lost its last three games, outscored 27-9.

Totals
-- 13 of last 19 Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in Washington's last eight home games.
-- 20 of last 29 Met games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven St Louis games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Arizona games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Colorado games went over the total.

-- Seven of last nine Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Under is 19-6-2 in last 27 Detroit games.
-- Seven of last ten Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 10-2-1 in White Sox' last thirteen road games.
-- Under is 7-3-2 in last twelve Angel games.

Umpires
-- Mil-Pitt-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Fairchild games.
-- LA-Wsh-- Under is 10-2-2 in last fourteen Winters games.
-- Phil-NY-- Under is 7-3-1 in last ten Gorman games.
-- Cin-Chi-- Road team won five of last six Everitt games.
-- Hst-StL-- Seven of last ten Vanover games went over total.
-- SD-Az-- Last five Nauert games stayed under the total.
-- Col-SF-- Over is 13-6-1 in last twenty Conroy games.

-- Min-Cle-- Home side won last ten Fletcher games, with six of last seven staying under the total.
-- A's-Det-- Seven of last eight Darling games stayed under total.
-- Tor-NY-- Seven of last ten LBarrett games went over total.
-- Bos-TB-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Hudson games.
-- Chi-KC-- Underdogs won four of last six Foster games.
-- Tex-LA-- Seven of last ten BWelke games went over total.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Thursday, September 20

National League

Houston at St. Louis, 1:45 ET
Norris: Houston 2-19 SU away revenging a shutout loss
Garcia: St. Louis 12-1 SU at home off 4+ Unders

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 ET
Cueto: 13-2 TSR in day games
Berken: Cubs 17-37 SU off BB losses

San Diego at Arizona, 3:40 ET
Richard: San Diego 22-44 SU off BB Unders
Skaggs: Arizona 14-2 SU after having 6+ extra-base hits

Colorado at San Francisco, 3:45 ET
De La Rosa: Colorado 13-30 SU vs. left-handed starters
Zito: 9-2 TSR vs. division opponents

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh, 4:05 ET
Fiers: Milwaukee 3-12 SU away off 3+ games allowing 3 runs or less
Rodriguez: Pittsburgh 9-1 SU at home off 3+ games scoring 4 runs or less

LA Dodgers at Washington, 7:05 ET MLB
Capuano: Dodgers 36-22 Under as an underdog
Detwiler: 9-0 TSR as a favorite


American League

Minnesota at Cleveland, 12:05 ET
Vasquez: Minnesota 15-30 SU away with a line of -125 to +125
Kluber: Cleveland 7-0 SU off BB home division losses

Oakland at Detroit, 1:05 ET
Milone: Oakland 10-1 SU playing with triple-revenge
Sanchez: 10-19 TSR in the second half of the season

Toronto at NY Yankees, 7:05 ET MLB
Laffey: Toronto 11-25 SU off BB Unders
Hughes: 18-1 TSR as a home favorite of -175 to -250

Boston at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Buchholz: Boston 5-18 SU away with a total of 7.5 runs or less
Price: 40-17 TSR vs. division opponents

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
Liriano: 23-11 Under away in the second half of the season
Guthrie: 9-27 TSR off BB starts allowing 1 or 0 walks

Texas at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
Darvish: Texas 15-29 SU after allowing 2 runs or less
Greinke: 13-1 TSR at home vs. division opponents

Philadelphia at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
Cloyd: Philadelpia 20-11 Over off BB games scoring 3 runs or less
Hefner: Mets 0-8 SU at home in September

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, September 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Minnesota - 12:05 PM ET Minnesota +136 500
Cleveland - Under 9.5 500

Oakland - 1:05 PM ET Oakland +120 500
Detroit - Under 8.5 500

Houston - 1:45 PM ET Houston +208 500
St. Louis - Under 8 500

Cincinnati - 2:20 PM ET Cincinnati -162 500
Chi. Cubs - Over 8.5 500

Colorado - 3:45 PM ET San Francisco -151 500
San Francisco - Under 8 500

Milwaukee - 4:05 PM ET Milwaukee -117 500
Pittsburgh - Over 7.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, September 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Toronto - 7:05 PM ET Toronto +219 500
NY Yankees - Under 9.5 500

LA Dodgers - 7:05 PM ET LA Dodgers +122 500
Washington - Under 8 500

Boston - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -200 500
Tampa Bay - Over 7 500

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets +113 500
NY Mets - Under 8 500

Chi. White Sox - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox +103 500
Kansas City - Over 8 500

Texas - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -118 500
LA Angels - Under 7 500