NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thursday, September 20 - Monday, September 24)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Wednesday, September 5 - Monday, September 10

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL odds: Week 3 opening line report

New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is seething over what he deems a “cheap shot” at the end of his team’s 41-34 come-from-behind win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday.

Coughlin should be more concerned about his team’s bumpy start to the season rather than the ethics of late-game football. New York is barely 1-1 and has failed to cover in each outings – both times as the betting favorite.

The Giants are once again the betting chalk in Week 3, sitting as 1.5-point road favorites in Carolina Thursday night.

Some oddsmakers, like Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based line consultants The Sports Club, actually went to the table with the Panthers as slight home favorites. But, with this game stepping into the Thursday night spotlight, both oddsmakers and books know there will be no shortage of New York money and played it safe.

“That was an impressive comeback win Sunday and that is what is going to be on bettors’ minds,” Korner told Covers. “Yeah, (the Giants) do have some injuries and yeah they haven't been playing well. but there is just too much Giants money out there to think Carolina should be favored.”

“I think it will stay around 1 or 2 and that’s where it will close.”

Here’s a glance at some of the opening spreads for some of Week 3’s biggest games:

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (-9, 54.5)

The Saints have been fade bait since the Bounty Gate scandal broke in the offseason. New Orleans is 0-2 after embarrassing losses to Washington and Carolina, but books are confident it will right in the ship in Week 3.

“They’re definitely under-performing, but if there is a team that is going to break out this week, it’s the Saints,” says Korner. “This is a game between two 0-2 teams, but it is more of a must-win for the Saints.”

The Sports Club sent out a suggested line of New Orleans -11.5 but most books opened low, with the Saints as 9-point favorites. Korner says if he were a book, he’d much rather be cheering for New Orleans to win than a Chiefs team that looks to be in total disarray.

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (+4, 44)

Only five teams are undefeated heading into the Monday nighter, and this is a battle between two of them. Arizona, surprisingly is among those 2-0 starts and is coming off a huge road win over the New England Patriots in Week 2.

“I actually came with Arizona as the favorite,” says Korner. “As a handicapper, this game would have to raise eyebrows. Philadelphia, even though they’re 2-0, haven’t looked good. Arizona, well, you can’t look any better than coming off a win over the Patriots.”

“I think this should be closer to a pick. You don’t want to go much higher than Eagles -4,” he adds. “All the sharp money is going to be on the home underdog.”

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 48.5)

This rematch of the AFC Championship Game has the hard number of Ravens -3 and books should see two-way action on this game. Korner says the injury to Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez won’t have an impact on the spread because Tom Brady has so many other weapons in the passing game.

“I don’t think there is going to be a big rush of New England money,” he says. “We’ll get to see the guts of the Patriots, coming off that loss to Arizona.”

[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 20, 2012

NY Giants at Carolina, 8:20 ET NFL
NY Giants: 10-2 ATS away off a win
Carolina: 11-3 Over vs. conference opponents


Sunday, September 23, 2012

St. Louis at Chicago, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 0-7 ATS off a home game
Chicago: 6-0 Over at home off a division game

Tampa Bay at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 25-11 ATS after scoring 30+ points
Dallas: 4-16 ATS as a favorite

San Francisco at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 8-0 ATS in the first half of the season
Minnesota: 3-8 ATS off a road loss

Detroit at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 1-9 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Tennessee: 38-17 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Cincinnati at Washington, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 10-1 ATS off BB games allowing 400+ total yards
Washington: 3-12 ATS at home after rushing for 175+ yards

NY Jets at Miami, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 15-5 Over in road games
Miami: 18-35 ATS off a win as an underdog

Kansas City at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 8-1 ATS off a road loss
New Orleans: 25-12 Under at home after allowing 30+ points

Buffalo at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 4-13 ATS off BB games with 150+ rushing yards
Cleveland: 7-0 Under off a road game

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 14-6 ATS after scoring 9 points or less
Indianapolis: 10-5 Over off a home game

Philadelphia at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Philadelphia: 29-15 ATS vs. NFC West opponents
Arizona: 3-12 ATS off BB wins by 6 points or less

Atlanta at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Atlanta: 14-5 ATS with a total of 42.5 to 49 points
San Diego: 10-5 Over off a home game

Houston at Denver, 4:25 ET
Houston: 12-3 ATS vs. conference opponents
Denver: 13-4 Over with a total of 42.5 to 49 points

Pittsburgh at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 1-8 ATS off a home win by 10+ points
Oakland: 6-0 ATS after having 300+ passing yards

New England at Baltimore, 8:25 ET NBC
New England: 10-2 ATS away with a total of 45.5+ points
Baltimore: 6-0 Over off a loss by 6 points or less


Monday, September 24, 2012

Green Bay at Seattle, 8:35 ET ESPN
Green Bay: 6-0 Over off a division game
Seattle: 11-3 ATS at home vs. conference opponents

[Udog]

NFL

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 20

8:20 PM
NY GIANTS vs. CAROLINA
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games
Carolina is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing NY Giants


Sunday, September 23

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games
St. Louis is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 11 games on the road
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Detroit
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games
Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Dallas's last 17 games at home

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. MIAMI
NY Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 16 of the NY Jets last 21 games on the road
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. MINNESOTA
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CLEVELAND
Buffalo is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Buffalo is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
Cleveland is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. NEW ORLEANS
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
New Orleans is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games on the road
Washington is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games

4:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. SAN DIEGO
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

4:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. OAKLAND
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Pittsburgh is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oakland's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games at home

4:15 PM
HOUSTON vs. DENVER
Houston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Denver is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:20 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BALTIMORE
New England is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing at home against New England
Baltimore is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home


Monday, September 24

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing Seattle
Green Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games at home
Seattle is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Thursday's Game
Giants (1-1) @ Panthers (1-1)— G-men lost opener to Dallas, then were down 24-13 at half to Bucs, before they scored 25 points in 4th quarter to even their record with wild 41-34 win, with Manning throwing for 510 yards. Giants allowed 9.4/7.6 yards/pass attempt in first two games, so chance for Newton to make big plays—11 of their 15 explosive plays have come on first down. Big Blue playing first ’12 road game, making first trip to Charlotte in six years; they split previous two visits, in series where six of seven games were decided by 10+ points. Since ’06, Carolina is 8-10 vs spread as home underdog; since ’05, Giants are 17-8 as road favorites. NFC East teams non-divisional favorites are 0-5 vs spread so far this season; NFC South teams covered three of four non-divisional tilts.

[Udog]

NFL

Week 3

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Thursday Night Football: Giants at Panthers
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New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (+1, 51)

THE STORY: The New York Giants have little time to get healthy as they take to the road Thursday to face the Carolina Panthers.

New York rallied from a 14-point deficit in the second half and pulled out a thrilling 41-34 home victory over Tampa Bay on Sunday as Eli Manning threw for a career-high 510 yards and three touchdowns, including two in the fourth quarter. But the win came at a price as running back Ahmad Bradshaw (neck), receiver Domenik Hixon (concussion) and tackle David Diehl (knee) suffered first-half injuries and did not return.

Carolina is coming off an exciting win of its own as it held off the New Orleans Saints for a 35-27 triumph, the Panthers' first victory over their NFC South rivals since 2009. Carolina carried a 15-point lead into the fourth quarter but needed an interception by Jon Beason with 31 seconds remaining to keep New Orleans winless after two weeks.

The Panthers and Giants last met in Week 1 of the 2010 season, when New York posted a 31-18 victory in its inaugural game at MetLife Stadium. Carolina does have the distinction of being the last team to play New York at Giants Stadium as it cruised to a 41-9 win in Week 16 of the 2009 campaign and eliminated the Giants from playoff contention.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Oddsmakers opened the Giants as 1.5-point road favorites and it really depends on the book to see where the line has moved. Some have the Panthers favored by as much as 2.5 while others have the Panthers as low as -1. Either way, it's a big move for a Thursday night primetime NFL game. The total has fallen from 52 to 51 points.

WEATHER: The forecast for Bank of America Stadium is calling for clear skies, temperatures in the lows 60s and zero chance of rain. Winds will blow slightly South.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS): Manning erased his three-interception first half by throwing for 295 yards after halftime, three shy of Phil Simms' club record. He passed for 243 of those yards during a 25-point fourth quarter, the team's biggest since 2006. Manning shattered his previous career high of 420 passing yards set last season against Seattle. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz were Manning's favorite targets. Nicks had 10 receptions for 199 yards and a TD while Cruz hauled in 11 passes for 179 yards and a score.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS): Receiver Steve Smith, who battled a knee injury, caught three passes for 104 yards against the Saints. It was the 39th time in his career he has amassed at least 100 receiving yards. Being interception-free is key for Cam Newton as Carolina is 6-1 over the past two seasons in games in which he has not been picked off. Newton led the Panthers' rushing attack against New Orleans with 71 yards, two more than DeAngelo Williams on one less carry.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Giants are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. New York's 604 total yards against the Buccaneers fell five shy of the franchise record set on Dec. 3, 1950, in a 51-7 triumph over the New York Yanks.

2. After rushing for a dubious franchise record-tying 10 yards against Tampa Bay in their season opener, the Panthers gained 219 yards on the ground versus New Orleans.

3. The Giants became the second team in NFL history to have a 500-yard passer and two 150-yard receivers in a game, joining the 1951 Los Angeles Rams.


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[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

NY Giants at Carolina
The Giants look to take advantage of a Carolina team that is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 September games. New York is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 20

Game 303-304: NY Giants at Carolina (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 135.912; Carolina 135.437
Dunkel Line: Even; 53
Vegas Line: Carolina by 2 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Over


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 23

Game 401-402: St. Louis at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 125.082; Chicago 136.005
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 11; 41
Vegas Line: Chicago by 7 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-7 1/2); Under

Game 403-404: Tampa Bay at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.692; Dallas 137.533
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 11; 43
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Under

Game 405-406: San Francisco at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 137.086; Minnesota 129.681
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6 1/2); Over

Game 407-408: Detroit at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 130.154; Tennessee 132.776
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 2 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: Cincinnati at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 130.845; Washington 130.226
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3 1/2); Under

Game 411-412: NY Jets at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 129.543; Miami 126.404
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 3; 43
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 1; 40
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-1); Over

Game 413-414: Kansas City at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 122.585; New Orleans 141.744
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 19; 49
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 8 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-8 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Buffalo at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 126.467; Cleveland 131.651
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Under

Game 417-418: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.230; Indianapolis 126.282
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Over

Game 419-420: Philadelphia at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 137.416; Arizona 135.310
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 47
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3 1/2); Over

Game 421-422: Atlanta at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 136.442; San Diego 136.176
Dunkel Line: Even; 45
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Under

Game 423-424: Houston at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.005; Denver 135.670
Dunkel Line: Denver by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+2 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Pittsburgh at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 132.289; Oakland 127.414
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 40
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 44
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-4); Under

Game 427-428: New England at Baltimore (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.057; Baltimore 138.997
Dunkel Line: New England by 3; 46
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (+3); Under


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 24

Game 429-430: Green Bay at Seattle (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 136.918; Seattle 136.130
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3 1/2); Over

[Udog]

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Sportsbooks have been busy adjusting the odds for Week 3 of the NFL season.

There have been many line moves heading towards the weekend, and we spoke with veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, of William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, about those changes, the reasons behind them and where he sees the odds landing before kickoff.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys – Open: Dallas -7, Move: Dallas -9

The Cowboys remain a double-faced team, following their big win over the Giants with a lackluster effort in Seattle last Sunday.

Bettors are sticking by Dallas, but Vaccaro says most of that has to do with Tampa Bay’s fourth-quarter collapse to New York in Week 2. He expects some buy-back by sharps on this line but the popularity of the Cowboys, especially on parlay cards, will keep this spread from coming down.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans – Open: Tennessee +3, Move: Tennessee +4

It didn’t take long for this spread to move off the key number and go to Titans +4 with the majority of bets coming in on the Lions. Vaccaro says it wouldn’t have mattered where this line opened at – bettors would be playing against Tennessee following two losses, injuries and team turmoil.

“If it opened at +4 it would have went to +5. If it goes to +6 by Sunday, people will still give the points,” Vaccaro told Covers. “I put Tennessee right up with Jacksonville and Cleveland. In fact, I think Cleveland is a much better team than them.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins – Open: -4, Move: -3

Another line move involving a key number, early bettors have faith in the Bengals versus Robert Griffin III and the Redskins. Vaccaro says the Bengals are underrated and believed the opening spread was too large to begin with.

“I can understand the move,” he says. “This one won’t go back to four, even though about 60 percent of the bets are going to be on the Redskins come Sunday.”

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins – Open: Miami +3, Move: Miami +1

These AFC East rivals have looked very different in their first two games of the season. Miami is coming off a one-sided win over Oakland and early bets have grabbed the Dolphins as field-goal dogs at home. Vaccaro says this could be one of the biggest decisions on Sunday’s schedule.

“I’ll be rooting my little Italian butt off for the Dolphins come Sunday morning,” he laughs. “Seven out of every 10 bets are going to be on the Jets. It’s a perfect scenario to bet New York for those public players.”

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos – Open: Pick, Move: Denver +2.5

Denver didn’t look very sharp to start Monday Night Football, especially Peyton Manning. There are plenty of questions surrounding his arm strength but Vaccaro says it is a growing confidence in Houston that has this line swinging the other way.

“There was a lot of money in Weeks 1 and 2 on Houston to win the Super Bowl. This is a tell that maybe this team is finally at a spot where so many people thought they would be or could be the past few years.”

[Udog]

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 3

Want to handicap Sunday's NFL action but don't have time to research every game? Check out our NFL poolies cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs. We give you quick-hitting notes on all of Week 3's action.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-9, 46.5)

Cowboys QB Tony Romo loves playing against the Bucs. Romo has passer ratings of 148.9, 140.6 and 133.9 in three career games against Tampa Bay with 11 TD passes. The Bucs defense was shredded by Eli Manning last week, giving up 512 yards through the air. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears (-9, 43.5)

Bears QB Jay Cutler was sacked seven times against Green Bay last week, causing him to lash out at left tackle J’Marcus Webb. To make matters worse, Cutler may not have RB Matt Forte (ankle) at his disposal on Sunday. Three-time Pro Bowl RB Steven Jackson (groin) is “day-to-day,” according to Rams coach Jeff Fisher and will be a game-time decision. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (6.5, 43)

San Francisco effectively shut down 2011 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers in Week 1, then Matthew Stafford and the high-powered Lions in Week 2. The Niners can go 3-0 to begin a season or the first time since 1998 if they can find a way to contain RB Adrian Peterson, who has failed to reach the 100-yard plateau in each of his last seven games, one shy of a career high. The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (3.5, 47)

The Titans have been outscored 72-23 in dropping their first two games. RB Chris Johnson, who rushed for over 2,000 yards in 2009 has only 21 yards on 19 carries. The Lions could get a boost at RB on Sunday with the return of Mikel Leshoure. The 2011 second-round draft pick was suspended for the first two games of the season after violating the NFL’s substance-abuse policy. The over is 3-0-1 in Detroit’s last four games overall.

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins (-3, 48.5)

Washington QB Robert Griffin III has impressed in his two games, throwing for 526 yards and picking up five TDs. Washington dropped its final six home games last season, but has won five straight home openers. The Cincinnati defense has allowed an average of 434.5 yards to rank 30th in the league - a far cry from the 316.3 per game it surrendered last season. The Bengals are 0-3-2 ATS in their last five road games.

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (-9, 53)

The Saints' 75 points allowed are tied - with Kansas City - for the highest total through two weeks. New Orleans is last in the league in overall defense at 461.0 yards per game and rushing defense. The Saints have played over the total in seven games dating back to last season and now host the Chiefs, who boast the fifth best rushing attack in the league (151 yards per game).

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (1, 40)

Dolphins RB Reggie Bush has averaged 126.7 rushing yards in his last six games - the most of any player since Week 13 of 2011. Miami has won two straight and five of its last six home games heading into its contest Sunday against New York. Jets QB Mark Sanchez has averaged 219.5 passing yards with nine TDs and four interceptions while going 2-4 versus Miami in his career. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (3, 44.5)

Bills RB C.J. Spiller leads the NFL with 292 rushing yards and 364 yards from scrimmage after running for 123 and two scores Sunday against the Chiefs. Buffalo has gone over the total in six straight September games and faces a Cleveland squad that’s 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games overall.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 41.5)

Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert just plain stunk last week against Houston, finishing with 53 yards passing - his fewest as a starter. Gabbert suffered a glute injury in the contest, but he’s expected to suit up in Week 3. That's good news for the Colts, who have played under the total in their last six home games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (3.5, 43)

The Cardinals defense is a major reason why they’re 2-0 and pulled off a major upset over the Patriots last week. The unit has only allowed two touchdowns and 3.4 yards per carry so far this season. The Eagles are the first team in NFL history to begin with a pair of one-point victories despite committing nine turnovers, which is three more than any other team. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers (-3, 47.5)

Falcons QB Matt Ryan is the league's top-rated passer with a rating of 117.6, and he's completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 518 yards and five touchdowns. San Diego’s offense is also rolling with 60 points scored and just one turnover after two games and the defense is allowing a league-low 41.5 rushing yards per game under new defensive coordinator John Pagano. The under is 10-1 in San Diego’s last 11 games as a home favorite.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (1, 44.5)

Broncos QB Peyton Manning tossed three interceptions in the first eight minutes of Denver’s Week 2 loss to the Falcons, but was 16-2 against Houston during his time in Indianapolis. His 110.6 QB rating against the Texans is his best against any team he's played more than four times. Houston is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (3.5, 44.5)

Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall (ACL) is on the mend and back at practice. His return could boost a running game that ranks 30th in the league in yardage while averaging just 2.6 per carry. The Raiders are also having trouble on the ground. Oakland is gaining an NFL-worst 2.0 yards per carry and RB Darren McFadden had just 22 yards on 11 attempts in last Sunday's loss at Miami. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 49.5)

New England lost tight end Aaron Hernandez to an ankle injury Sunday against the Cardinals. The Patriots signed former Cleveland and Tampa Bay tight end Kellen Winslow on Wednesday to fill in and complement Rob Gronkowski. QB Tom Brady has a 69.1 passer rating in six career games against Baltimore including the postseason - his worst against any opponent. New England is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Baltimore.

[Udog]

NFL weather watch: Rain expected in Cleveland, Miami

NFL game weather and resulting stadium conditions can have a significant impact on player performance and the outcome of football games. Bettors should take weather conditions into consideration, especially when placing over/under wagers.

Here are two key matchups that are being threatened by inclement weather Sunday:

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (3, 44)

Site: Cleveland Browns Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and a 20 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the west.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (1, 41)

Site: Sun Life Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-80s and a 70 percent chance of thunderstorms in the Miami area. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

[Udog]

NFL

Week 3

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Chiefs at Saints: What bettors need to know
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Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (-9, 53)

Whether it's the loss of head coach Sean Payton, a hangover from the ongoing bounty investigation or just an atrocious defense, the 0-2 New Orleans Saints host the Kansas City Chiefs desperate for their first win of the season. Kansas City seems to be just the right remedy. While New Orleans has been upset by the Washington Redskins and Carolina Panthers, the Chiefs haven't even been competitive in losses to the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills.

Playing from behind, both the Saints' and the Chiefs' offenses have put up big numbers in their first two games, but they are tied for last in the NFL in scoring defense, having allowed 75 points apiece on the season. Saints quarterback Drew Brees threw for 325 yards last week in rebounding from Week 1 when he completed just 46 percent of his passes.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Saints -9, O/U 53.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (0-2): Oddly enough, led by Matt Cassel, the Chiefs have won eight of their last 10 games against the NFC. Cassel is 10-5 against NFC teams and Jamaal Charles has also had good success rushing for an average of over seven yards a carry against out-of-conference foes. But Kansas City has struggled offensively to start the season once again, raising questions about Romeo Crennel’s credibility as a head coach. Charles (probable) is off to a dreadful start with just 90 yards on the ground in his first two outings and he injured his surgically repaired left knee last week. Tight end Kevin Boss is questionable with a head injury.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (0-2): Brees has thrown for an NFL-record 300 yards in nine straight games. New Orleans, however, has lost the last three of them. The Saints appear distracted by the aftermath of the NFL's investigation into the team’s alleged bounty system that cost Payton his job for the season. The defense is still reeling from the loss of several key members, including linebacker Jonathan Vilma, and has surrendered nearly 400 yards rushing in their first two games. New Orleans couldn't contain the athletic Cam Newton in last week's loss or rookie Robert Griffin III in the opener. Newton ran for a career-high 71 yards. It could have more success against the far less-mobile Cassel.

TRENDS:

* Over is 7-0 in Saints’ last seven games overall.
* Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five September games.
* Saints are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Chiefs’ last six September games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Saints are 0-2 for the first time since 2007.

2. The Saints won the last meeting 30-20 back in 2008.

3. Kansas City began last season 0-3.


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[Udog]

NFL

Week 3

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Patriots at Ravens: What bettors need to know
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New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-1.5, 49.5)

The Baltimore Ravens have some bad memories of the last time they faced the New England Patriots - a last-second loss in the AFC Championship Game. The Ravens will get home field advantage in Sunday night’s rematch and have the more confident kicker this time around. The Patriots’ Stephen Gostkowski missed badly on a 42-yarder in the final seconds last weekend, dooming the team to a rare home loss. Billy Cundiff, who missed a last-second 32-yard attempt in the title game last January, has been replaced by rookie Justin Tucker, who is 6-for-6 so far. Both teams looked strong in Week 1 but will be trying to avoid dipping below .500 after disappointing showings in Week 2.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Ravens -1.5, O/U 49.5. Most sportsbooks opened the Ravens as -3 favorites, but that line has since been bet down to -1.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s and clear skies at M&T Bank Stadium. Wind won’t be a factor.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (1-1): The record-setting offense from past years did not show up against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2, with Tom Brady not throwing a touchdown pass until late in the fourth quarter. That unit could be in trouble again on Sunday without tight end Aaron Hernandez, who suffered an ankle sprain against the Cardinals and will miss 4-to-6 weeks. New England signed free agent Kellen Winslow and brought back wide receiver Deion Branch during the week. Wes Welker, who led the NFL in receptions last season and has been one of the most prolific receivers in the game since joining the Patriots, was replaced in the starting lineup by Julian Edelman last week as new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels continues to tinker with the offense. The bright spot has been a much-improved defense, especially rookie DE Chandler Jones.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (1-1): Baltimore will catch a break without Hernandez on the field but will still have to account for Rob Gronkowski. The Ravens had trouble containing Philadelphia Eagles tight end Brent Celek in a 24-23 loss last Sunday. Baltimore’s defense is under the direction of new coordinator Dean Pees, who spent the previous few seasons with the Patriots, and is ranked just 27th through the first two weeks. The offense looked strong enough to overcome those deficiencies in the Week 1 thrashing of Cincinnati, but quarterback Joe Flacco was just 22 of 42 against the Eagles and the Ravens converted only 4 of 14 third downs. Flacco actually outperformed Tom Brady in last January’s meeting but was let down when his sure touchdown pass was knocked out of the hands of Lee Evans right before Cundiff’s missed kick.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 6-0 in Ravens’ last six September games.
* Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Patriots’ last five road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Baltimore S Bernard Pollard, who knocked out Brady for the 2008 eason with a low hit in the opening weekend and was responsible for Gronkowski’s ankle injury in last season’s meeting, is questionable for Sunday with a rib contusion.

2. Patriots rookie Jones will be playing for the first time against his brother, Ravens DE Arthur Jones.

3. New England is 7-1 against Baltimore, including the playoffs.


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[Udog]

NFL

Week 3

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Tale of the tape: Packers at Seahawks
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks.

Offense

The Packers’ offense has gotten off to a slow start, but QB Aaron Rodgers could be a man on a mission after having his leadership skills called out earlier this week by TE Jermichael Finley’s agent. Wide receiver Greg Jennings sat out last week's game versus Chicago with a groin injury, but returned to practice earlier this week and is questionable Monday.

Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch has certainly stepped up as the leader for his team, amassing 207 yards and a touchdown while dealing with the lingering effects of a balky back. Rookie QB Russell Wilson is commanding a passing attack that is averaging a league-low 136 yards per game.

Edge: Packers


Defense

The Packers enter with the second-ranked pass defense in the league. The Green Bay secondary came up huge last week, picking off Bears QB Jay Cutler four times. LB Clay Mathews is giving opposing QBs nightmares, opening the season with six sacks, the highest total in the league.

The Seahawks boast the second-ranked rushing defense in the NFL, allowing an average of just 46 yards per game. The Seattle defense held Tony Romo and the high-powered Cowboys offense to just seven points in Week 2 and only 49 yards on the ground.

Edge: Seahawks


Special Teams

Packers punter Tim Masthay connected on a 27-yard touchdown pass to tight end Tom Crabtree on a faked field-goal attempt that helped spur last week's victory over the Bears. That was the team’s second special teams TD of the season following Randall Cobb’s 75-yard punt return for a score against San Francisco in the season opener.

The Seahawks also scored a special teams TD on a blocked punt in their win over the Cowboys last week. Additionally, the unit recovered a Dallas fumble on the game’s opening kickoff that was turned into a field goal.

Edge: Packers


Word on the street

“You start with your offensive line and quarterback, that's the biggest stress point in my mind when you play in loud stadiums. The perimeter players have to keep their eye on the ball. Aaron (Rodgers) does a very job with cadence, in loud stadiums and in our own stadium. It's something we put a lot of time into as far as our cadence, and not just training one quarterback and one center. It'll be a big challenge, something we've been preparing for all week.” – Packers coach Mike McCarthy on the crowd noise in Seattle.

“I think that he is one of the truly special ‘effort’ guys in the league. He’s quick, he’s strong, he’s instinctive and all of that, but what separates him is that he’s relentless.”--Seahawks coach Pete Carroll on Clay Mathews. Carroll also said he plans to keep a tight end on Mathews to block and will have his running backs chip him before going out on a route.


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[Udog]

NFL

Week 3

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Monday Night Football: Packers at Seahawks
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Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (3, 44.5)

After splitting their first two games at Lambeau Field, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will take their high-octane offense to the Pacific Northwest for a Monday night date with the Seattle Seahawks. Rodgers wasn't even the star of the show in the Packers' last game on Sept. 13 as the defense flustered Jay Cutler and the NFC North rival Chicago Bears in a 23-10 triumph. Seattle's defense wasn't too shabby in its own right last week, keeping Tony Romo and Dallas under wraps en route to a 27-7 victory.

As for Rodgers, the Packers quarterback is used to being the target of opposing defenses. This past week, however, the league's reigning MVP was on the receiving end of a jab from Green Bay tight end Jermichael Finley's agent, who used his Twitter account to take aim at Rodgers' leadership abilities. Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch has certainly stepped up as the leader for his team, amassing 207 yards and a touchdown while dealing with the lingering effects of a balky back.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Packers -3, O/U 44.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with a 20 percent chance of showers. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (1-1): Greg Jennings sat out last week's game versus Chicago with a groin injury, but returned to practice earlier this week. The talented wideout, however, was held out of practice on Thursday following a setback in his recovery and is uncertain in his return for Monday game. Running back Cedric Benson responded to criticism following a paltry season-opening performance to rush for 81 yards in Week 2. The backfield, however, will likely be crowded with the return of last season's leading rusher James Starks, who has been plagued by a nagging turf toe injury.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (1-1): While coach Pete Carroll would be well served to utilize Lynch and keep Rodgers and company off the field, rookie quarterback Russell Wilson will still need to come up timely plays. The former Wisconsin star, who beat out ex-Packers backup Matt Flynn for the starting job, will need to cast a wary eye on NFL sacks leader Clay Matthews (six sacks). Seattle has enough trouble throwing the ball as it is, averaging a league-low 136 passing yards this season.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 3-0-2 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.
* Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.
* Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Packers haven't fared well on Monday nights since Rodgers took the helm of the club. Green Bay is 0-4 when playing away from Lambeau Field.

2. Seahawks WR Sidney Rice suffered an apparent head injury during the third quarter against Dallas. Rice returned to the contest and was not listed on the
team's injury report this week.

3. Green Bay has won the last three meetings versus Seattle and six of seven dating to 2003. The clubs have split their four games in the Pacific Northwest.


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[Udog]

Where the action is: Monday Night Football line moves

As the crowd noise rises in CenturyLink Field, the total for Monday night’s game between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks falls.

The over/under number has been bet down from as high as 47.5 points to as low as 44 heading into Monday’s primetime game in Seattle. As of Monday, nine of the 15 Week 3 games have finished below the number.

According to Jay Rood, sportsbook director for the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, the smart money has come in on the under but, as is the case with most standalone games, there is no shortage of over bets made by the public. The total is currently sitting at 45 points.

“I think the best unit on the field right now is Seattle’s defense,” Rood told Covers. “They’re playing at the highest level, compared to Seattle’s offense, Green Bay’s offense and Green Bay’s defense. If you believe that, the 46 and 45 points seem too high.”

Rood also points to the Packers' once-potent offense, which is averaging just 247 passing yards per game after putting up 307.8 yards an outing last season. Star QB Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played to his MVP-caliber level, tossing three touchdowns to two interceptions and touting an 89.9 passer rating -14th in the NFL.

Green Bay also has a laundry list of ailments for some of Rodgers’ top targets, like Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb and tight end Tom Crabtree. All three are expected to play through injuries Monday.

Rood doesn’t expect the spread, which stands at Green Bay -3, to move from the key field-goal number, even though the majority of wagers are coming in on the favorite.

“If I believe it’s going to be a short game, and I do, looking to go to 3.5 could be detrimental,” he says. “If it lands on three, everybody kisses their sisters and goes home. If we go to 3.5, then we’re on the hook for a side.”

The Packers are 3-0-2 ATS in their last five meetings with the Seahawks. The over is 3-0-1 in the past four encounters between these teams.