NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Wednesday, September 19 - Saturday, September 22)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 22

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What bettors need to know: Missouri at South Carolina
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Missouri at South Carolina (-10, 48)

Entering a high-profile matchup with concerns over the health of your starting quarterback is hardly an ideal recipe, but that's the situation facing both teams when No. 8 South Carolina prepares to host Missouri on Saturday in SEC play. Gamecocks quarterback Connor Shaw has already missed one game and was knocked out of last week's win over Alabama-Birmingham after aggravating an injury to his throwing shoulder, but South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier insisted the junior will play Saturday. Missouri QB James Franklin also sat out last week with inflammation in his right shoulder but said he is certain he will play in the Tigers' first conference road game.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: South Carolina -10, O/U 48.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-80s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out the west.

ABOUT MISSOURI (2-1, 0-1 SEC): The Tigers rebounded from a crushing loss to Georgia in their SEC debut to outlast Arizona State 24-20 a week ago. One early trend Missouri will look to correct is wilting late in games after getting off to fast starts. Georgia scored 32 second-half points against Missouri and Arizona State put up a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to turn it into a nail-biter. The return of Franklin - who declined a pain-killing injection last week - should provide a boost after redshirt freshman Corbin Berkstresser made his first career start last week. Prize recruit Dorial Green-Beckham has yet to make much of an impact, with five receptions for 39 yards.

ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (3-0, 1-0 SEC): After squeaking out a four-point win at Vanderbilt in the season opener, the Gamecocks have steamrolled overmatched East Carolina and UAB by a combined 97-16. Shaw exited last week's win prior to halftime with a hairline fracture, but South Carolina has not missed a beat behind backup Dylan Thompson. The sophomore has thrown for 507 yards and five touchdowns against zero interceptions. Star RB Marcus Lattimore has scored four TDs in his three games but has seen a limited workload in the back-to-back routs. The Gamebacks will be without standout safety D.J. Swearinger, who was suspended one game for a helmet-to-helmet hit last week.

TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in Tigers’ last four games as a road underdog.
* Gamecocks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.
* Gamecocks are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The teams have met only twice - both in bowl games - and Missouri won both matchups, including a 38-31 victory in the 2005 Independence Bowl.

2. The Gamecocks are seeking their second straight 4-0 start and eighth consecutive win, which would be the second-longest in school history and one shy of the record nine-game streak set in 1984.

3. Missouri SS Kenronte Walker was named the SEC defensive player of the week after batting away a pass in the end zone and making an interception on Arizona State's final two drives last Saturday.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 22

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What bettors need to know: Michigan at Notre Dame
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Michigan at Notre Dame (-5, 49.5)

Notre Dame’s defense has looked impressive in winning its first three games. It will get a different sort of test when the 15th-ranked Fighting Irish host No. 17 Michigan and Denard Robinson on Saturday night. Robinson has been a thorn in the side of Notre Dame in each of the last two meetings between the schools, both of which ended in last-second Wolverines wins. But the Fighting Irish have allowed only 30 points total through their first three games and easily dispatched Michigan State last Saturday to announce themselves as a legitimate contender. Michigan failed its first test against a national opponent and could use the momentum of a road win over a nationally-ranked team heading into the Big Ten slate next month.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Notre Dame -5, O/U 49.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s with a 60 percent chance of rain. Winds will be out of the west at 13 mph.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (2-1): The Wolverines have broken the hearts of the Irish in four-point victories each of the last three seasons. Tate Forcier threw the final touchdown pass with 11 seconds left in 2009 and Robinson ran in with 27 seconds left in 2010’s 28-24 win. The 2011 game was even closer, as Michigan recovered from a 24-7 deficit with 28 fourth-quarter points for a 35-31 triumph. Robinson hit Roy Roundtree on a 16-yard pass with two seconds on the clock to put that one away. Michigan was slow out of the gate in 2012, getting trounced by Alabama on the opening weekend and squeezing by Air Force before putting it all together in a 63-13 win over Massachusetts. Robinson put up 397 yards of total offense in the win and completed two-thirds of his passes for three touchdowns. He has accounted for 948 yards of offense in his two starts against Notre Dame.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (3-0): The breakdowns in previous losses to Michigan seem to have been addressed by coach Brian Kelly, who has remade the Fighting Irish into a fearsome defensive bunch. Notre Dame held Michigan State to 237 total yards and forced a turnover in a 20-3 triumph on the road last Saturday thanks to a strong front seven. That front will have to be even better against Michigan without safety Jamoris Slaughter, who tore his left Achilles tendon against the Spartans. The Irish have not allowed a rushing touchdown and will try to keep Robinson in the pocket and force interceptions. Offensively, Notre Dame is succeeding by not making mistakes. Everett Golson has only one interception in the first three games and has been held under 200 yards passing in two of the first three games in the conservative approach.

TRENDS:
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Notre Dame’s last six games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
* Under is 4-0 in Wolverines’ last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Irish have not started 4-0 since 2002 and have not beaten consecutive top-20 teams since that same season.

2. The Wolverines lead the all-time series 23-15-1 and have taken five of the last six.

3. Notre Dame is 80-23-1 all-time in September home games and is 6-2 all-time in night games at home.


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[Udog]

College football betting weather watch: Week 4

Weather has certainly played a factor in the first three weeks of the college football season and will continue to do so in Week 4.

Here are a few key matchups that are being threatened by inclement weather Saturday:

Maryland at West Virginia (-25.5, 59.5)

Site: Mountaineer Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s and a 35 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the south.

UTEP at Wisconsin (-18, 51)

Site: Camp Randall Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s and a 50 percent chance of showers. Winds will out of the north at 11 mph.

Eastern Michigan at Michigan State (-31, 49)

Site: Spartan Stadium

Temperatures are expected to dip into the low-50s and there's an 80 percent chance of precipitation at game time. Winds will be light out of the north.

Gardner-Webb at Pittsburgh Odds N/A

Site: Heinz Field

Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-60s and there’s a 50 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the west.

Louisville at FIU (13.5, 53)

Site: FIU Stadium

It will be hot and humid today in the Miami area with temperatures expected to soar into the mid-80s. With that comes an 80 percent chance of a thundershower. Winds will be light out of the north.

Temple at Penn State (-7.5, 43)

Site: Beaver Stadium

Temperatures should reach the mid-60s by kickoff with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be relatively calm out of the south.

Michigan at Notre Dame (-5, 49.5)

Site: Notre Dame Stadium

Expect wet and windy conditions for this clash between two, top-20 schools. Temperatures will be in the low-50s and there’s a 70 percent chance of precipitation throughout the evening hours. Winds will be out of the west at 15 mph.

Vanderbilt at Georgia (-15, 50.5)

Site: Sanford Stadium

Weather models suggest temperatures will be in the mid-70s with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind shouldn't be a factor.