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**StarDust Bum** · 09-18-2012, 04:54 PM

Rangers And Angels Continue Series In Anaheim

Texas started the series on Tuesday with a 3-game lead in the AL West.

It's hard not to find a crucial series on the MLB schedule right now. The addition of a second wild card in each league has done its job to keep more teams in the hunt, and created a free-for-all in the American League where eight teams are fighting for five slots with two weeks remaining on the regular season slate.

So it's not an overused cliché to call this week's meeting in Anaheim between the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers a big series. One look at the pitching matchups might lead one to think the playoffs are already here with both clubs trotting their top three starters out for the 3-game set that got underway Tuesday night.

Wednesday's middle game of the set pits a pair of southpaws as Derek Holland is in line for the Rangers against their former teammate CJ Wilson. First pitch from Angel Stadium is 10:05 p.m. (ET) with ESPN providing the telecast and leading into the contest with the A's-Tigers tilt in Detroit.

Early MLB odds for Game 2 listed the Angels as $1.25 favorites with an 8½-run total ('under' -120).

The series began with the Rangers on top of the AL West, 7.5-games in front of the Halos. That margin might normally have had Texas feeling comfortable about its chances to take a third consecutive division flag, but the Oakland Athletics are sitting between the Rangers and Angels just three games out.

Los Angeles held a slight 7-6 lead in this year's series against Texas, taking four of the previous six played in Anaheim. Totals split down the middle in those six fames, 3-3.

Wilson will be seeking the fourth consecutive win on his ledger, and first against his old club when he climbs the hill for Wednesday's clash. He has been solid so far this month with a 2.55 ERA in three assignments, and appears to have gotten things back on track with the Angels winning his last five starts following a stretch in which they lost eight of nine with Wilson on the mound.

It's the fifth time he has faced Texas this season, including back-to-back starts in Arlington back in April. Los Angeles halved the previous four, but Wilson failed to decision in the two triumphs, including a dandy performance in Anaheim on June 2 when he blanked the Rangers over six innings. The Rangers beat him around pretty good in Texas the other three outings, leaving Wilson with an overall 7.27 ERA against them this season.

Like Wilson, Holland appears to be getting into a groove recently after a very inconsistent first four months of the campaign that included a DL stint. His ERA has come down more than half a run since early August, and Holland has pitched well enough to be riding a personal 5-game win streak going into Wednesday's battle. But his offense and bullpen failed him the last two times out, both no-decisions for Holland and eventual losses for the Rangers.

Holland has been consistent in his two assignments vs. the Angels this season, though not consistently good. He took the loss in both games, one in Texas and the other in Anaheim, working 6-2/3 innings and surrendering six runs each time along with five homers combined. Holland was 5-1 against LA entering this year with a 4.14 ERA covering nine starts and three relief appearances.

The latest injury news for the Angels had reserve infielder Maicer Izturis questionable while dealing with a rib cage issue. Texas was hoping to have closer Joe Nathan back for the start of the series after he was given time off to rest his arm for the stretch run and playoffs.

Tuesday's series opener was still pending in a mound duel between Ryan Dempster and Jered Weaver. The Angels were listed at -140 behind their lanky ace and the contest carried a 7½-run total. Thursday's finale finds Yu Darvish on the bump for Texas opposite LA's Zack Greinke.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-18-2012, 04:57 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

September 18, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Astros are 0-11 since April 28, 2012 on the road after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Red Sox are 0-10-1 OU since April 19, 2011 on the road with a total under 10 after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Diamondbacks are 12-0 since May 20, 2011 when Ian Kennedy starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1298.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Reds are 14-0 (5.4 rpg) since 2009 after a single-digit win where they had at least 16 hits.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Cardinals are 6-0 since April 10, 2012 when Kyle Lohse starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $603.

-- The Red Sox are 0-7 since June 22, 2012 when playing a night game after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $992 when playing against.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-18-2012, 04:59 PM

Weekly Betting Notes

September 18, 2012

The Angels have 15 games left to make something happen or their season is finished. They are 7 ½ games out of first place in the AL West, but only three games out for one of the Wild Card spots, their most likely path to the playoffs. In order for them to make it happen, they are going to have to win the series beginning Tuesday in Anaheim against the first place Rangers.

"Forget winning series. We're talking about winning every pitch," Angels manager Mike Scioscia told the Associated Press. "That's where we are. The only thing we control is how we play. We need to bring it for the last 15 games."

The Angels definitely have a sense of urgency with this series and it works out that their rotation is set up perfect. It's almost set up like a playoff series where they have their big guns on the mound, starting with Jered Weaver on Tuesday, C.J. Wilson on Wednesday, and Zack Greinke on Thursday. The Rangers are stacked with their top starters as well, which shows in the series price where the Angels are only a -135 favorite.

Right now, the A's and Orioles have the edge over the Angels in the Wild Card race. But what if the Angels sweep the Rangers? It's unlikely, but they have played some great baseball lately, winning 14 of their last 19 games. The only hiccup over that stretch was when Oakland took three of four from them last week. If they were to get the sweep, it would put a lot of pressure on the Rangers who are being pressed by the A's -- three games back of Rangers. And then the Angels would have a chance to do it again when they meet in Arlington for a three-game set next weekend.

If you think it's possible, then 15-to-1 odds on the Angels to win the World Series might be for you. With the way Greinke is rolling right now and Weaver getting back on track, they would be a tough team to tackle in a five or seven-game series. Even Ervin Santana has been pitching lights out lately.

I may be trying to infuse more drama into the AL situation just to keep myself entertained, but the NL race doesn't need any prodding with eight teams vying for the two Wild Cards. Even the Padres are only six games out. We've got so many different scenarios unfolding that could make the final day of action come close to rivaling what we saw last season when we were taught that anything can happen in baseball as the Red Sox and Braves faltered down the stretch while the Cardinals and Rays took advantage.

The Cardinals' improbable run last year wasn't improbable for a few bettors that hit their 300-to-1 odds to win the World Series tickets. Most of the sports books in Las Vegas got clobbered on that one and also learned a valuable lesson about not falling asleep at the wheel, which is easy to do with football taking over as the most important sport being booked.

So much changes from day-to-day in baseball. For the last two weeks it was the Phillies making a Wild Card run and their odds dropped from 200-to-1 last Monday to 50-to-1 this week. The Phillies got cooled off in Houston, but the new hard charger coming fast on the outside lane is the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that traded away Greinke in July because they thought they had no chance.

Since August 20, no one is playing better baseball than the Brewers as they have won 20 of 26 games through Sunday. Last Monday, the Brewers were 300-to-1 to win the World Series. This week, they're 40-to-1. They're only 2 ½ games out of the final Wild Card position that the Cardinals currently hold. For the last month, most of us have been paying more attention to the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Pirates for the final Wild Card berth, but as last season taught us, anything is possible.

The Dodgers, one game out of the final Wild Card slot, had their odds raised from 12-to-1 up to 25-to-1, even though they have one of the largest liabilities of all the teams. The reasoning behind the hike in odds is because of Clayton Kershaw who has a nagging hip injury that could shut his season down. Without Kershaw, even though he's struggled over his past five starts, the Dodgers chances of advancing -- even if they make the playoffs -- seems unlikely.

What's up Johnny?
The Reds are co-favorites to win the National League at 13-to-5 with the Nationals, but if their ace doesn't start getting his act together, it may be a short playoff run for them. The Reds have lost four of his past five starts and Cueto has taken the loss in his last three where he's given up 14 runs combined. It's by far the worst stretch of his season. Just last month he was in the conversation with R.A. Dickey and Gio Gonzalez as being one of the top voted pitchers for the Cy Young Award. But now, he can't even get out of the fifth inning.

Zito in a Groove
The Giants are 3-to-1 to win the NL Pennant and despite not having the big bats some of the other contenders have, you have to like their chances just because of their pitching. One of those pitchers currently making a great is Barry Zito. The Giants have won his past eight starts, with Zito getting the win in four of them. He hasn't been dominant in any of the starts, but for some reason, the Giants bats come alive when he's on the mound. Three of the Giants wins over Zito's streak have been by the scores of 9-8, 9-6, and 8-7.

Orioles are Winners
The Orioles' chances of making the playoffs are still up the air, but one thing is for sure, they are winners in 2012. For the first time since 1997, Baltimore will finish the season with a winning record. Their win Sunday at Oakland assured them of a winning mark with 82 wins on the season. The Orioles' odds to win the World Series were raised from 25-to-1 up to 30-to-1 Monday at the LVH Super Book.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-18-2012, 05:02 PM

Week in Review

September 18, 2012

MLB Betting Week of Sept. 10

Baseball can be a funny game. The Philadelphia Phillies had won seven games in a row, gotten back over .500 and surged into the National League wild-card race entering a four-game series last weekend at Houston, easily the worst team in baseball. It should have been a lock series victory for the Phils.

But Houston won three of the four games, dealing a big blow to the Phillies' playoff hopes. In addition, one of the book's biggest wins of any MLB game this season came on the Astros' 5-0 victory on Saturday. Behind what had been a red-hot Kyle Kendrick, Philadelphia closed as a -179 favorite for that game and took a little more than 98 percent of the action. It was even more lopsided on the Phillies at minus-1.5 runs (-120), with more than 99 percent of the lean on Philadelphia.

The Phillies had shot to 12/1 to win the NL pennant and +350 to make the postseason (no at -500) but their chances are now longer with several teams to climb over for that second wild-card spot. Philadelphia did have one game last week that was a big win for players, its 3-1 victory over Miami on Wednesday. Behind Cliff Lee, the Phillies closed as -171 favorites and took nearly 74 percent of the action. At minus-1.5 runs (-125), Philadelphia took more than 90 percent of the action.

Bettors' top win was the Los Angeles Angels' 6-0 victory over Oakland on Thursday to salvage a game in that four-game series. With ace Jered Weaver on the mound, L.A. closed as a -144 favorite and took more than 74 percent of the action. At minus-1.5 runs (+145), the Halos took almost 93 percent.

The Angels also were responsible for bettors' top series result of the week as they took two of three at Kansas City over the weekend as a -175 favorite. The top series win for the book was Boston (-105) winning two of three at Toronto (-125).

Early-Week Live Betting Schedule

After struggling for weeks, the New York Yankees have won back-to-back series to reclaim the lead in the American League East and their home series opener vs. Toronto on Tuesday will have live play-by-play betting at the book.

New York opened as a big -220 favorite for the opener as it welcomes back veteran left-hander Andy Pettitte. The 40-year-old hasn't pitched in the majors since suffering a broken ankle on June 27. The Yankees are hoping to get him four starts before the end of the regular season so Pettitte (3-3, 3.22) is in rhythm for the playoffs. His 19 postseason wins are the most in MLB history. The Yankee pitching staff could use the boost as it has a 4.56 ERA in September, the highest of any month.

Pettitte will be opposed by Ricky Romero, who brings a rather amazing streak into the game. The Jays' lefty has lost 13 straight games, tying a franchise record. Toronto also has lost the past six times he has started vs. the Yankees; three of the losses in his current skid are against New York.

Also available for live betting Tuesday, and Wednesday, is Rangers at Angels. Texas is a playoff lock but trying to hold off Oakland for the AL West title, while the Halos must start winning now to grab a wild-card spot. L.A. had been reposted at -325 to miss the playoffs and +250 to make it before that weekend series in K.C. The Rangers, 9/2 World Series favorites, lead the majors in batting average and runs scored, while the Angels are second and fourth, respectively.

Texas has won eight of its past nine series and starts Ryan Dempster opposite Jered Weaver in Tuesday's opener, with the Angels as slight -135 favorites. Dempster has won his past five starts, with a 1.91 ERA, while Weaver is 2-1 with a 5.94 ERA vs. Texas this year. Los Angeles has won seven of 13 matchups with the Rangers in 2012.

The other live betting game available Wednesday outside of Rangers-Angels is Phillies-Mets. Check back Thursday for a weekend live betting preview at the book.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-18-2012, 05:04 PM

Tigers open long homestand Tuesday vs. Oakland

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (84-62)

at DETROIT TIGERS (77-69)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -150, Oakland +140, Total: 7½

With the Tigers sitting three games out in the AL Central and 5½ games behind the A’s and the Orioles in the AL Wild Card, they will host Oakland Tuesday for a three-game set kicking off a 10-game homestand.

The A’s enter this game as heavy underdogs with rookie A.J. Griffin on the mound, though his recent performances make that line curious. Standing at 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA on the season, Griffin is 3-0 with an 0.89 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in his past three starts. He showed no trouble pitching against a playoff contender his last time out, tossing eight shutout innings in a 4-1 win over the Angels last Wednesday. He will get a tough battle from Max Scherzer, however, who has been just as hot with a 6-0 record and 1.29 ERA over his past seven starts. But he’s facing an Oakland squad that has won eight of its past 10 while Detroit has been cold with a 4-6 record in the same span. Take the money and OAKLAND to win this one.

This rare pair of four-star FoxSheets trends also favor the A’s:

OAKLAND is 31-17 (64.6%, +22.0 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season. The average score was OAKLAND 4.2, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 4*).

OAKLAND is 47-20 (70.1%, +29.7 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season this season. The average score was OAKLAND 4.8, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 4*).

The A’s are 2-2 against the Tigers this season but 4-2 against them in Detroit over the past three years. Griffin has succeeded with his ridiculously good K-to-BB ratio that is near 5-to-1 right now (53 K’s, 11 BB). And pitching on the road is no problem for him either, where he has a 1.15 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 4-0 record, averaging 6.3 innings per start compared to 5.9 overall. Even if he doesn’t make it deep in this game, the Oakland bullpen has been nothing short of fantastic. Athletics relievers have a 2.90 ERA on the season with a 1.17 WHIP, already having notched 42 saves and a 24-11 record (.686) in 2012. Take these heavy underdogs.

Scherzer has been nothing short of spectacular lately with 60 strikeouts in his past 49 innings, giving him an majors-best 220 K’s in just 176.2 innings pitched this year. Like Griffin, he is better on the road than at his pitchers’ park at home, going 7-2 (team is 9-3) with a 3.36 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 12 away starts. And just like the A’s, Detroit also has a stellar bullpen that has a 3.68 ERA and 35 saves in 2012. That bullpen ERA is even better on the road at 3.14, where the relievers sport a 15-8 record. Scherzer whiffed nine and allowed two earned runs in a 10-6 win against the A’s earlier this year on May 10, and now owns a 2-1 career record with a 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in three career starts in this series. While the Tigers are a dominant home team with a 43-28 record (.606, 5th-best in majors), the A’s are 41-32 (.562) on the road, tying them with Baltimore for the best away record in the American League. Play against heavily favored Detroit here.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-18-2012, 05:12 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, September 18

Hot pitchers
-- Gallardo is 1-0, 2.77 in his last couple starts.
-- Zimmerman is 1-0, 3.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Harvey is 2-2, 2.40 in his last five starts.
-- Bailey is 1-0, 1.66 in his last three starts.
-- Stults is 3-0, 1.85 in his last four starts. Kennedy is 2-0, 2.33 in last three.
-- Lincecum is 2-0, 3.37 in his last three starts.

-- Griffin is 5-0, 1.54 in his last seven starts. Scherzer is 6-0, 1.29 in his last seven starts.
-- Hellickson has a 1.59 RA in his last three starts.
-- Dempster is 5-0, 2.18 in his last five starts. Weaver is 1-1, 1.46 in his two starts this month.
-- ERamirez is 1-1, 1.53 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Burnett is 0-3, 5.76 in his last five starts.
-- Harang is 0-2, 5.14 in his last four starts.
-- Cloyd is 1-1, 4.95 in four starts this season.
-- Maholm is 1-3, 7.46 in his last five starts. Eovaldi is 0-4, 7.58 in his last four outings.
-- Germano is 0-5, 9.51 in his last five starts.
-- Abad is 0-4, 7.47 in four starts this season. Lohse is 0-1, 6.50 in his last three outings.
-- Francis is 0-1, 8.03 in his last three starts.

-- Romero is 0-6, 7.71 in his last six starts. Pettitte is 0-1, 4.70 in his last four starts, last of which was June 27.
-- Walters is 0-3, 12.27 in his last five starts. Huff hasn't allowed a run in two relief stints (six IP) this year; he is 16-25, 5.37 in 48 major league starts.
-- Doubrant is 0-4, 7.95 in his last five starts.
-- Floyd is 1-1, 6.26 in his last six starts. Hochevar is 1-2, 9.43 in his last four outings.
-- WChen is 0-2, 6.27 in his last three starts.

Hot Teams
-- Brewers won 20 of their last 26 games.
-- Phillies won 17 of their last 24 games.
-- Braves won four in row, 11 of last 15 games.
-- Cubs won seven of their last ten games. Reds won eight of 12 on road.
-- Astros won three of their last four games.
-- Padres won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Giants won 13 of their last 19 games.

-- Bronx won four of its last five games. Blue Jays won four in row on road.
-- Red Sox won three of their last four games.
-- White Sox won their last four games, allowing nine runs.
-- A's won eight of their last ten games. Tigers won four of last six.
-- Angels won 14 of their last 19 games. Texas is 9-5 in its last 14.
-- Orioles won five of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Washington lost its last three games, scoring six runs. Dodgers lost eight of their last eleven.
-- Mets lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Marlins lost five of their last seven games.
-- Cardinals lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last eleven home games.
-- Rockies lost ten of their last twelve games.

-- Twins lost five of their last six games. Indians lost seven of last nine.
-- Tampa Bay lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Royals lost three of their last four games.
-- Seattle lost five of its last six games.

Totals
-- 13 of last 17 Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-0-1 in Washington's last six home games.
-- 19 of last 28 Met games stayed under the total.
-- Ten of last fourteen Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five St Louis games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Arizona games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Colorado games went over the total.

-- Five of last seven Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 19-4-2 in last 25 Detroit games.
-- Seven of last eight Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in White Sox' last eleven road games.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Angel games.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Baltimore games.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-18-2012, 05:16 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, September 18

National League

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh, 7:05 ET
Gallardo: Milwaukee 8-18 SU away after allowing 1 or 0 runs
Burnett: 13-5 TSR as a home underdog

LA Dodgers at Washington, 7:05 ET MLB
Harang: Dodgers 7-15 SU on Tuesdays
Zimmermann: Washington 31-15 SU with a total of 8 to 8.5 runs

Philadelphia at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
Cloyd: Philadelphia 7-14 SU off a combined score of 4 runs or less
Harvey: Mets 19-11 SU off BB games allowing 3 runs or less

Atlanta at Miami, 7:10 ET
Maholm: Atlanta 24-13 SU off a win by 2 runs or less
Eovaldi: 1-10 TSR pitching off a team loss

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs, 8:05 ET
Bailey: 12-3 TSR away in night games
Germano: 6-23 TSR in night games

Houston at St. Louis, 8:15 ET
Abad: Houston 1-12 SU away after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Lohse: St. Louis 11-0 SU at home after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

San Diego at Arizona, 9:40 ET
Stults: San Diego 16-7 SU after winning 4 of their last 5 games
Kennedy: Arizona 11-19 SU off BB games allowing 3 runs or less

Colorado at San Francico, 10:15 ET MLB
Francis: 5-0 TSR away pitching off 3+ team losses
Lincecum: 5-12 TSR pitching off a team win

American League

Toronto at NY Yankees, 7:05 ET
Romero: 1-12 TSR in the second half of the season
Pettitte: Yankees 17-7 Under at home off BB wins

Minnesota at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Walters: Minnesota 10-5 SU vs. Cleveland
Huff: Cleveland 9-18 SU at home after losing 2 of their last 3 games

Oakland at Detroit, 7:05 ET MLB
Griffin: 7-0 TSR as an underdog of +150 or less
Scherzer: Detroit 6-12 SU at home off 6+ road games

Boston at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Doubront: Boston 12-30 SU in September
Hellickson: Tampa Bay 10-3 SU off 3+ losses

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
Floyd: White Sox 30-14 SU off BB wins
Hochevar: 16-6 Over vs. division opponents

Texas at LA Angels, 10:05 ET MLB
Dempster: Texas 15-28 SU after allowing 2 runs or less
Weaver: 16-2 TSR at home vs. division opponents

Baltiomre at Seattle, 10:10 ET
Chen: 7-2 TSR away with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs
Ramirez: Seattle 9-31 SU after allowing 9+ runs

**StarDust Bum** · 09-18-2012, 05:27 PM

Tuesday, September 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

LA Dodgers 0 PPD Washington -153 500
Washington 0 Under 8 500

Minnesota - 7:05 PM ET Minnesota +127 500
Cleveland - Over 9 500

Oakland - 7:05 PM ET Oakland +142 500
Detroit - Over 7.5 500

Milwaukee - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +110 500
Pittsburgh - Over 7 500

Boston - 7:10 PM ET Boston +150 500
Tampa Bay - Over 7.5 500

Atlanta - 7:10 PM ET Miami +142 500
Miami - Under 8.5 500

Cincinnati - 8:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs +146 500
Chi. Cubs - Over 8 500

Chi. White Sox - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox +100 500
Kansas City - Over 8.5 500

Houston - 8:15 PM ET Houston +264 500
St. Louis - Under 8.5 500

San Diego - 9:40 PM ET San Diego +134 500
Arizona - Under 9.5 500

Texas - 10:05 PM ET Texas +126 500
LA Angels - Under 7.5 500

Baltimore - 10:10 PM ET Baltimore -134 500
Seattle - Under 7 500

Colorado - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -190 500
San Francisco - Under 7 500

Announcement

The Bum's Tuesday's MLB Best Bets !

The Bum's Tuesday's MLB Best Bets !

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