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The Bum's Monday's MLB Best Bets !

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  • The Bum's Monday's MLB Best Bets !

    Hot & Not

    September 17, 2012

    The postseason is rapidly approaching meaning teams still in it to win it are making those final pushes while teams with nothing left to fight for are either rolling over or trotting more of their younger talent out to the playing field. Here’s a look at what some of the best and worst teams did over the course of the last week against the closing baseball betting lines.

    Money-Makers

    Milwaukee Brewers (5-1, $363): The Brew Crew’s late season charge continued this past week after manager Ron Roenicke’s squad went out and swept the Wild Card leading Atlanta Braves at home before taking two of three from the woeful Mets. Ryan Braun has continued to rip the cover off the ball and is now the NL home run leader (40) after launching two more in Sunday’s series finale. Now two-games over the breakeven point, Milwaukee finds itself just 21/2-games out of the play-in Wild Card slot.

    On The Docket: It’s once again do or die for Milwaukee this week with each of their next 10-games to be played away from the comfy confines of Miller Park in Pittsburgh, Washington, and Cincinnati. While the team sits a healthy 17-games over .500 as a host, it possesses a 28-43 overall mark on the road (-$1854) but has won 13 of its L/16 versus +.500 opposition.

    San Diego Padres (5-1, $363): It truly is a shame that the Padres dug themselves into such a deep hole throughout the first-half of the season. Because of it, manager Bud Black’s squad realistically has no shot of qualifying for the second season with them being forced to leapfrog six other ball clubs in order to qualify. However, the building blocks look to be firmly in place for this franchise to compete for the foreseeable future, so look for SD to continue relishing its role of spoiler as it looks to claw even closer to .500.

    On The Docket: The Padres will embark upon a six-game road trip starting Tuesday night in Arizona before wrapping up in San Francisco. Chase Headley and his mates have won 12 of their L/15 series openers, 19 of their L/26 overall, and split their 60 overall NL West tussles.

    Oakland A’s (5-2, $346): We questioned the A’s and their abilities at September’s outset thinking they’d struggle after catapulting themselves back into the postseason picture by beating up on lesser opposition. However, after going into Anaheim and taking three of four from a Halos outfit that desperately needed that series win, call us believers! “The Swingin’ A’s” enter the last couple weeks of the regular season firing on all cylinders having only dropped one series in their last nine played. That in and of itself is commendable, but more importantly, Oakland is now the best overall bet in baseball having reeled their supporters in a whopping $3257 worth of profit on the year!

    On The Docket: Baseball bettors will now truly get a feel for what the overall Wild Card leaders are all about over the next 10 days with each of their next three series set to go in Detroit, New York, and Texas – all possible second season entrants. Oakland’s won 22 of its L/30 on the road as well as five of its L/6 away from the Coliseum versus +.500 opposition.

    Honorable Mentions: Baltimore Orioles (4-2, $280), Chicago Cubs (4-2, $241), San Francisco Giants (4-2, $201), Detroit Tigers (4-2, $166), New York Yankees (4-2, $142)

    Money-Burners

    Pittsburgh Pirates (1-5, -$458): After dropping nearly a nickel for its baseball betting backers last week, manager Clint Hurdle’s outfit managed to pile on another hefty tally to that wretched mark after managing just one win in the six games it played against the division rival Reds and Cubs this past week. This outfit has hemorrhaged betting losses throughout the second-half of the season, and now finds itself a couple more losses away from being in the red overall; hardly expected after this club was both in the division and Wild Card races just two months ago.

    On The Docket: If the Buccos have any shot of still qualifying for the playoffs, they must hold serve at home against the Brewers before turning their attention to the road trip to Houston. That said, Pittsburgh has dropped 19 of its L/26 overall games played and fallen seven of the L/10 times it welcomed Milwaukee into PNC.

    Tampa Bay Rays (1-5, -$446): Once a sexy pick to outlast everyone in the AL East just a couple weeks ago, the Rays are now the forgotten team after putting forth a truly pitiful effort when the exact opposite was needed in trips to Baltimore and the Bronx last week. After pulling out just one win, Tampa Bay sits six-games in back of Oakland and four behind the Orioles with only the Angels to jump. While still doable, manager Joe Maddon’s outfit must make hay over the next week at home to have any shot.

    On The Docket: The first step to turning things around will come against Boston who the Rays have dropped seven of 12 against in 2012, and it will be followed up with a visit from Toronto who the Rays have flat out dominated winning 11 of the 15 previous quarrels; they’ve won five of six when hosting the rivalry.

    St. Louis Cardinals (2-5, -$358): The second-half of the defending champs season has hardly gone as well as it did just a short season ago. It was around this time last year that the Redbirds were so red hot that they made the charge that allowed them to snag the Wild Card. This time around, they’re clinging on for dear life in hopes of holding onto the play-in slot. The Dodgers, Brewers, Pirates, Phillies, and D’Backs are all breathing down their collective neck, so any prolonged losing streak would certainly see them miss out on the opportunity of defending their title.

    On The Docket: The Cardinals return home from a miserable West Coast road trip (2-5) to host the Astros before taking their final trip to Wrigley Field to battle the hated Cubs. They’ll then close out the roady with a trip to Houston which means each of the team’s next nine games will come against opponents that check in a combined 81-games under .500. Losing ball clubs are what the Redbirds have feasted upon all season long – they’re 12-2 their L/14 vs. sub .400 opposition.

    Dishonorable Mentions: New York Mets (1-5, -$378), Minnesota Twins (2-5, -$314), Los Angeles Dodgers (2-4, -$247), Cleveland Indians (2-5, -$175), Philadelphia Phillies (4-3, -$117), Colorado Rockies (2-4, -$101)
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Diamond Trends - Monday

    September 17, 2012

    SU TREND OF THE DAY:

    -- The Rockies are 9-0 since May 23, 2012 when playing a night game as a road dog of more than +140, with a total under 10 after allowing 6+ runs in a loss for a net profit of $1493.

    OU TREND OF THE DAY:

    -- The Cubs are 0-9 OU since 2011 when it’s not the first game of the series after playing a night game after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.

    STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

    -- The Tigers are 0-8-2 OU since August 09, 2011 when Doug Fister starts on the road after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.

    MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

    -- The Orioles are 12-1 (+2.8 rpg) since June 2005 in the first game of a road series when they are off a win in which they trailed at the end of the first inning.

    TODAY’S TRENDS:

    -- The Tigers are 8-0 since September 05, 2011 when Doug Fister starts after August for a net profit of $860.

    -- The White Sox are 5-0 since May 30, 2012 when Jose Quintana starts after a quality start at home for a net profit of $592.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Mets look to spoil Philly playoff push Monday

      PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (73-74)

      at NEW YORK METS (66-80)


      First pitch: Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
      Line: Philadelphia -110, New York +100, Total: 6½

      As the Phillies have pushed their way back into Wild Card contention, the Mets will look to play spoiler and give Cy Young contender R.A. Dickey his N.L.-leading 19th win of the season.

      The Phillies entered Houston on Thursday with a seven-game win streak, but dropped three of four to the Astros, the majors’ worst team (48-99). They’ll take on another slumping team in the Mets, who have lost eight of their past nine, surpassing three runs just twice in this nine-game span. But Dickey is the only pitcher who can compete with that sort of run support, sporting a 2.60 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 18-5 record in 29 starts this season. He has been just as good lately with a 1.72 ERA and 3-1 record in his past five starts. On Monday, he faces southpaw Cliff Lee, who has recovered from a poor start to develop a 5-7 record in 2012 on a 3.36 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has been particularly dominant lately in his past four starts (all Phillies wins), going 3-0 with an 0.99 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 23 K’s and just two walks in 27.1 innings. But the Mets appear poised to play spoiler here given their domination of the Phillies this season, having taken 10 of the 15 series games already in 2012. And as home underdogs with one of baseball’s best pitchers on the mound, they should be the play. Take NEW YORK to prevail in this one.

      This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also favor the Mets:

      Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) - with an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last 10 games, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts. (56-41 over the last 5 seasons.) (57.7%, +42 units. Rating = 3*).

      N.Y. METS are 28-8 (77.8%, +24.2 Units) against the money line after a game where they had 2 or less hits since 1997. The average score was N.Y. METS 5.0, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 3*).

      Cliff Lee earned his first win of 2012 against the Mets on July 4, snapping a 13-start personal winless streak to start the season. Overall, in seven career starts against the Mets, he has a 3-1 record (team 4-3) with a 2.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. And, by averaging 7.0 innings per start this year, he largely eliminates one of Philadelphia’s greatest weaknesses—its bullpen. Philly relievers have a 5.07 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road in 2012 with just 19 saves in 29 chances (66%). The bullpen has been much better this month though, sporting a 2.33 ERA in 38.2 September innings.

      Like Lee, Dickey’s endurance is key to his success, as the knuckleballer is averaging 7.0 innings per start. He averages 7.2 innings per start at home, where he has a stellar 2.40 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and an 8-2 record. And with the Mets bullpen sporting a poor 4.69 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the season, it’s best that they pitch as little as possible. Given the Mets anemic offense, Dickey will have to throw a gem to win this one, but he has done that regularly in 2012. He has also had success against the Phils, sporting a 2.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in eight career starts against them, leading his team to three straight wins in the series with a 3.00 ERA and 6.0 K-to-BB ratio (18 K, 3 BB) in this span. The home underdogs are the choice here.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        MLB
        Armadillo's Write-Up

        Monday, September 17

        Hot pitchers
        -- Lee is 3-0, 1.32 in his last four starts. Dickey is 3-1, 1.72 in his last five.
        -- Wood is 2-0, 0.66 in his last couple starts.
        -- Chacin is 2-2, 2.84 in his last five starts.

        -- Cobb is 2-0, 2.84 in his last four starts.
        -- Tillman is 2-0, 2.70 in his last three starts, but has a sore elbow.
        -- Fister is 2-0, 2.84 in his last three starts.

        Cold pitchers
        -- Hudson is 1-2, 4.34 in his last three starts. LeBlanc is 0-3, 4.50 in his last three outings.
        -- Correia is 2-3, 5.72 in his last five starts.
        -- Bumgarner is 0-3, 7.36 in his last four starts.

        -- Cook is 0-5, 7.20 in his last six starts.
        -- Noesi is 0-5, 5.59 in his last five starts, last of which was July 4.
        -- Quintana is 1-2, 9.24 in his last three starts.

        Hot Teams
        -- Braves won three in row, 10 of last 14 games. Miami won three of its last four home games.
        -- Cubs won seven of their last nine games.
        -- Giants won 12 of their last 18 games.

        -- White Sox won their last three games, scoring five runs. Tigers won four of their last five games.

        Cold Teams
        -- Mets lost eight of their last nine games. Phillies just lost three of four games in Houston.
        -- Pirates lost seven of their last nine games.
        -- Rockies lost nine of their last eleven games.

        -- Red Sox lost 14 of their last 18 games. Tampa Bay lost seven of ten.
        -- Orioles lost three of their last four road games. Seattle lost three of its last four games overall.

        Totals
        -- Ten of last thirteen Atlanta games stayed under the total.
        -- 18 of last 27 Met games stayed under the total.
        -- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Pirate-Cub games.
        -- Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen San Francisco games.

        -- Six of last seven Boston games stayed under the total.
        -- Over is 8-3-1 in last twelve Baltimore games.
        -- Under is 19-4-1 in last 24 Detroit games.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          MLB

          Monday, September 17

          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Five MLB teams running out of gas in September
          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          September is the most exciting time of the baseball season. The tension rises, pressure becomes a daily part of the lives of players and the wear and tear of the vigorous MLB schedule begins to take its toll.

          Here are five teams, which are a combined 22-39-7 over/under this month, that seem to be running out of offensive firepower down the stretch:

          Statistics used are from games scheduled between Sept. 1- Sept. 15.

          Cincinnati Reds

          September offensive stats: 36 runs scored, 10 home runs, .221 team batting average
          September record: 6-7, 1-10-3 over/under
          Up next: at Cubs, vs. Dodgers, vs. Milwaukee

          Cincinnati has a comfortable 11-game lead in the NL Central heading into action Sunday, but its offense is cooling off. The team has averaged 2.77 runs per game in September, going 6-7 over that stretch. The Reds’ 36 runs scored and .221 team batting average are the lowest totals in the bigs this month.

          Atlanta Braves

          September offensive stats: 44 runs scored, 10 home runs, .237 team batting average
          September record: 9-5, 4-10 over/under
          Up next: at Marlins, at Phillies, vs. Marlins

          Atlanta slugger Jason Heyward belted his team-leading 27th homer on Saturday, but the Braves are last in the majors with a .231 average with runners in scoring position this season. Only one year removed from a late-September collapse, you have to wonder if the pressure of making the playoffs is taking its toll once again. The good news for bettors is Atlanta continues to be a profitable under bet this season (63-78-5 O/U).

          Oakland Athletics

          September offensive stats: 55 runs scored, 18 home runs, .225 team batting average
          September record: 10-4, 6-7-1 over/under
          Up next: At Tigers, at Yankees, at Rangers

          The Athletics could use all the room they can get with a 10-game road trip through Detroit, New York and Texas beginning Tuesday. Oakland trails the Rangers by two games in the AL West and has a 2.5-game advantage over the Angels for a wild card spot. The A’s continue to hit for power, but their team batting average is plummeting this month, putting even more strain on their young pitching staff.

          Toronto Blue Jays

          September offensive stats: 54 runs scored, 11 home runs, .221 team batting average
          September record: 5-8, 7-5-1 over/under
          Up next: at Yankees, at Rays, at Orioles

          It’s been a nightmare season on the injury front for the Blue Jays. Brett Lawrie, J.P. Arencibia and slugger Jose Bautista have missed significant time with injuries and the team has struggled to put runs on the board without them. Toronto has called up many of its top prospects for the remainder of the season and that’s reflected in its weak offensive statistics this month.

          Los Angeles Dodgers

          September offensive stats: 37 runs scored, 10 home runs, .227 team batting average
          September record: 6-7, 4-7-2 over/under
          Up next: at Nationals, at Reds, at Padres

          The Dodgers have fallen way behind the Giants in the NL West and are now in a dogfight for a wild card spot. The blockbuster trade with Boston that brought Adrian Gonzalez to L.A. has failed to spark the offense. Slugger Matt Kemp went 0-for-4 Saturday and is 3-for-32 in his last eight games.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            Been taking a beating the last 2 out of 3 days but still swimming above the Century marks in units.

            Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

            09/16/12 12-*18-*0 40.00% -*4075 Detail
            09/15/12 14-*12-*0 53.85% +*1210 Detail
            09/14/12 9-*19-*0 32.14% -*5985 Detail
            09/13/12 8-*8-*0 50.00% +*380 Detail
            09/12/12 18-*10-*0 64.29% +*4015 Detail
            09/11/12 11-*19-*0 36.67% -*4225 Detail
            09/10/12 11-*8-*1 57.89% +*1535 Detail
            09/09/12 16-*11-*1 59.26% +*3980 Detail
            09/08/12 9-*7-*2 56.25% +*895 Detail
            09/07/12 15-*14-*1 51.72% +*215 Detail
            09/06/12 5-*5-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
            09/05/12 9-*5-*2 64.29% +*1985 Detail
            09/04/12 17-*9-*3 65.38% +*5270 Detail
            09/03/12 17-*11-*0 60.71% +*3655 Detail
            09/02/12 18-*11-*1 62.07% +*3840 Detail
            09/01/12 14-*13-*2 51.85% -*735 Detail

            Totals 203-*180-*13 53.00% +11860

            Monday, September 17

            Game Score Status Pick Amount

            Detroit - 2:10 PM ET Detroit -119 500
            Chi. White Sox - Under 9 500

            Boston - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -185 500
            Tampa Bay - Under 8.5 500

            Atlanta - 7:10 PM ET Miami +122 500
            Miami - Under 7.5 500

            Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -103 500
            NY Mets - Over 6.5 500

            Pittsburgh - 8:05 PM ET Pittsburgh -107 500
            Chi. Cubs -

            Baltimore - 10:10 PM ET Baltimore -115 500
            Seattle - Under 7.5 500

            Colorado - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -199 500
            San Francisco - Over 7 500
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment

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