The Bum's Wednesday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Athletics & Angels Continue Big Series In Anaheim

A huge series with playoff implications in the American League continues Wednesday night when the Los Angeles Angels host the Oakland Athletics.

Monday's series opener went to the A's who are looking to rebound from a sweep by the Angels in Oakland last week. The Halos will send Ervin Santana to the mound on Wednesday as a $1.25 favorite against Athletics rookie AJ Griffin. The third tilt in this 4-game affair will carry an 8-run total shaded 15-cents to the 'under.'

Griffin (5-0, 2.21) will be making his 11th big league start and has yet to allow more than three earned runs or two walks in any of his previous 10 outings. Don Best analyst Todd Fuhrman called Griffin a "hidden gem" in Bob Melvin's rotation.

The right-hander out of San Diego U. has been especially tough in his last two starts, combining for 12-1/3 innings while surrendering just two runs and striking out 12 in victories over Boston and Seattle. The A's are 8-2 when Griffin heads to the hill and Wednesday will be his first career appearance vs. the Angels.

Santana (8-11, 5.21) will be seeing the Oakland lineup for a third time in 2012, and is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA in the previous two starts. Los Angeles has won his last two starts and is 6-1 in Santana's games since August opened.

Oakland leads the American League wild-card chase with the second-best record overall. The Angels are 3.5 behind the A's in that race and have both the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays to climb over to claim the second wild card spot.

"This is a team with as much talent as anybody in the American League," Fuhrman said of the Angels. "However, they haven't put it all together, and the real issue, they need to get things over the hump and they have 20 some-odd games to do it."

Fuhrman likes the -125 price on Santana and the Angels in Wednesday's contest.

Stay up to date with the latest news, notes and betting information with Don Best Pro Odds as Major League Baseball heads down the stretch and into October's playoffs.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

September 12, 2012


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Royals are 0-11 since May 13, 2011 when playing a night game on the road after a win in which they left 18+ men on base in a night game for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Angels are 0-10-3 OU since April 23, 2011 when playing a night game as a favorite of more than -115 after a one run loss for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Tigers are 10-0 since April 24, 2011 when Max Scherzer starts as a favorite after more strikeouts than hits allowed on the road for a net profit of $1000.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Royals are 1-17 in since July 9, 2010 in road night games after a night game where they score 6+ runs. 1-4 this season.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Rays are 0-6 since May 30, 2012 after a 5+ run loss in a night game for a net profit of $705 when playing against.

-- The Brewers are 11-0 since June 15, 2012 when Yovani Gallardo starts as a favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $1100.

-- The Phillies are 0-7 since July 09, 2011 when Cliff Lee starts at home after giving up no walks for a net profit of $1147 when playing against.

[StarDust Bum]

Orioles look to stay atop AL East hosting Rays

TAMPA BAY RAYS (77-64)

at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (79-62)


First pitch: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -120, Baltimore +110, Total: 8½

After taking game one of the series Tuesday night 9-2, the Orioles will look to remain atop the AL East as they continues their three-game set with the Rays, who sit just two games behind both Baltimore and the Yankees.

Alex Cobb takes the hill for the Rays with a 4.28 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9-8 record in 2012. But he has been especially good lately, with a 2.18 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his past three starts. Since August 1, Cobb is 5-0 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.08 WHIP leading the Rays to a perfect 7-0 record in those games. Cobb faces Miguel Gonzalez on Wednesday, who sports a 3.84 ERA and 1.22 WHIP as a starter this season, managing 6.2 innings per start. This should be an interesting matchup because Cobb excels by limiting home runs, having allowed just nine in 19 starts this year, while the Orioles have been mashing at the plate lately with 15 home runs in their past five games. And given Cobb’s struggles on the road, where he has a 5.30 ERA this year, the O’s should be in good position to tee off yet again. Play on BALTIMORE as the home underdog in this one.

This rare four-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Orioles:

Play On - Home teams (BALTIMORE) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) -AL, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. (86-42 since 1997.) (67.2%, +53.1 units. Rating = 4*).

Although the Orioles and Rays have already played 13 times this year, with the O’s holding a slight 7-6 advantage, Cobb has yet to face Baltimore. Tampa Bay has displayed some power of its own lately, with six home runs in its past two games, but has struggled to string together runs, tallying just 13 runs in the past four games, spanning 39 innings. The Rays failed to eclipse three runs in three of those four contests. The good news for Tampa is that even if Cobb falls into his typical road struggles, he is backed up by a strong bullpen that has a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this year. That ERA balloons to 3.72 on the road, however, and the Rays ‘pen has a 4.91 ERA so far in September. Play against these road favorites.

The Orioles have been in a dogfight to remain near the top of the AL East, and have been grinding out wins to stay close. Although they will miss RF Nick Markakis (thumb) for the rest of the season, they have been mashing without him and have guys who have been doing well against the Rays. J.J. Hardy, who smacked two homers in Tuesday’s series opener and has 10 RBI in his past eight games, will look to carry that over into another game with the Rays, against whom he has a .327 average and .899 OPS this year. And Gonzalez should be able to pitch well this game, as he has done much better at home lately, going 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his past two starts at Camden Yards. Although Tampa Bay shelled Gonzalez on July 25 in Baltimore (2.2 IP, 7 H, 7 ER), he shut down the Rays at Tropicana Field on Aug. 5, allowing just two hits over seven shutout innings of a 1-0 win in 10 innings.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, September 12

Hot pitchers
-- Lee is 2-0, 1.33 in his last three starts. JJohnson is 1-0, 1.20 in his last couple starts.
-- Lohse is 3-0, 3.09 in his last seven starts. Richard is 5-1, 2.92 in his last seven outings.
-- Bailey is 0-0, 1.84 in his last couple starts.
-- Harvey is 2-1, 2.52 in his last four starts. Lannan is 2-0, 3.47 in his two starts this season.
-- Wood is 1-0, 3.09 in two starts this month, after an 0-5, 4.38 August.
-- Gallardo is 6-0, 3.04 in his last eight starts. Maholm has a 1.75 RA in his last five road starts.
-- Lincecum is 2-1, 3.09 in his last four starts. Francis is 1-0, 3.26 in his last four starts.
-- Harang is 2-1, 3.86 in his last five starts.

-- Cobb is 2-0, 2.61 in his last three starts.
-- Dempster is 4-0, 2.08 in his last four starts.
-- Scherzer is 5-0, 1.26 in his last six starts.
-- Griffin is 5-0, 2.21 in ten starts this season. ESantana is 3-1, 2.91 in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Burnett is 0-2, 6.46 in his last four starts.
-- Abad is 0-3, 8.76 in three starts this season.
-- Cahill is 1-3, 6.67 in his last five home starts.

-- Romero is 0-12, 8.25 in his last 13 starts. Millwood is 1-4, 5.75 in his last seven starts.
-- MGonzalez is 1-2, 4.42 in his last three starts.
-- Phelps is 1-1, 5.74 in his last five starts. Cook is 0-4, 7.56 in his last five.
-- Gomez is 1-3, 8.37 in his last five starts.
-- Floyd had a 6.35 RA in his last five starts before going on DL.
-- Hochevar is 0-4, 6.80 in his last seven starts. Walters is 0-2, 11.93 in his last four starts.

Hot Teams
-- Phillies won ten of their last twelve games.
-- Nationals won eight of their last ten games.
-- Cincinnati won three of its last four games.
-- Cubs won four of their last five games.
-- Braves won seven of their last ten games. Brewers won 17 of last 22.
-- Giants won nine of their last eleven road games.
-- Padres won 16 of their last 21 games.

-- Toronto won four of its last five games.
-- Orioles won 11 of their last 15 home games. Tampa Bay won six of its last nine games.
-- Rangers won nine of their last twelve home games.
-- Minnesota won three of its last four games.
-- Angels won 11 of their last 14 games, but lost last two. Oakland won 14 of its last 17 games.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Mets lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Pirates lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Astros lost 18 of their last 24 games.
-- Colorado lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last six games. Arizona lost eight of its last 11 home games.
-- Cardinals lost ten of their last fourteen games.

-- Mariners lost four of their last six games.
-- Boston lost 11 of its last 13 games. Bronx Bombers are 4-8 in their last twelve games.
-- Royals are 4-5 in their last nine road games.
-- Detroit lost 16 of its last 21 road games. White Sox are 5-7 in their last 12 games overall.
-- Cleveland lost 13 of its last 16 road games.

Totals
-- Over is 7-1-1 in Miami's last nine games.
-- Over is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Washington games.
-- Under is 8-0-2 in last ten Cincinnati games.
-- Last four Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Ten of last thirteen Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- 16 of last 23 Colorado games stayed under the total. Over is 11-4-2 in last seventeen Giants' games.
-- Seven of last eight Arizona games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight St Louis games went over the total.

-- Five of last six Seattle road games stayed under.
-- Four of last six Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Bronx games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Texas home games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-1-2 in last ten Kansas City games.
-- Under is 17-2-1 in last 20 Detroit games.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in Oakland's last thirteen games.

Umpires
-- Mia-Phil-- Fagan hasn't worked enough MLB games to have trends.
-- Wsh-NY-- Four of West's last five games went over the total.
-- Pitt-Cin-- Favorites won 11 of last 13 Gonzalez games.
-- Chi-Hst-- Five of last seven Demuth games stayed under.
-- Atl-Mil-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Barksdale games.
-- SF-Col-- Five of last six Campos games stayed under total.
-- LA-Az-- Four of last five Scott games went over the total.
-- StL-SD-- Underdogs are 7-6 in last thirteen Dimuro games.

-- Sea-Tor-- 25 of 28 Emmel games went over the total.
-- TB-Balt-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Hudson games.
-- NY-Bos-- Under is 11-6-1 in last 17 Marquez games.
-- Cle-Tex-- Over is 12-5-1 in last eighteen Conroy games.
-- Det-Chi-- Home side won nine of last eleven Tichenor games.
-- KC-Min-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Bellino games.
-- A's-LA-- Five of last six Everitt games went over the total.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, September 12

National League

Miami at Philadelphia, 4:05 ET
Johnson: 30-17 TSR as an underdog of +100 or higher
Lee: Philadelphia 9-15 SU at home when the total is 7 or less

St. Louis at San Diego, 6:35 ET
Lohse: St Louis 7-13 SU when the total is 7 or less
Richard: San Diego 13-6 SU after having won 4 of their last 5

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
Burnett: Pittsburgh 2-8 SU in September
Bailey: Cincinnati 43-23 SU in the second half of the season

Washington at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
Lannan: Washington 12-2 SU in road games
Harvey: NY Mets 5-16 SU in home games

Chicago Cubs at Houston, 8:05 ET
Wood: Chicago Cubs 25-18 SU after 6 or more consecutive road games
Abad: Houston 6-21 SU after allowing 2 runs or less

Atlanta at Milwaukee, 8:10 ET
Maholm: Atlanta 5-13 SU revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite
Gallardo: 22-7 TSR after a win

San Francisco at Colorado, 8:40 ET
Lincecum: San Francisco 30-15 SU against left-handed starters
Francis: Colorado 7-20 SU after allowing 9 runs or more

LA Dodgers at Arizona, 9:40 ET
Harang: 16-10 TSR in road games
Cahill: Arizona 8-15 SU after allowing 1 run or less


American League

Seattle at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Millwood: Seattle 9-31 SU in road games against AL East opponents
Romero: Toronto 33-24 SU with 3 straight losses against opponent

Tampa Bay at Baltimore, 7:05 ET ESPN2
Cobb: Tampa Bay 0-7 SU after a loss by 6 runs or more
Gonzalez: Baltimore 21-13 SU after 2 or more consecutive overs

NY Yankees at Boston, 7:10 ET ESPN
Phelps: NY Yankees 25-10 SU after 4 or more consecutive road games
Cook: Boston 9-27 SU in September

Cleveland at Texas, 8:05 ET
Gomez: Cleveland 8-21 SU after 3 or more consecutive losses
Dempster: Texas 60-32 SU when the total is 8.5 to 10

Detroit at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 ET
Scherzer: Detroit 40-21 SU after having lost 3 of their last 4
Floyd: White Sox 15-20 SU at home when the total is 8 to 8.5

Kansas City at Minnesota, 8:10 ET
Hochevar: Kansas City 15-7 SU off an upset win over a div rival as a dog
Walters: Minnesota 15-29 SU in home games after a loss

Oakland at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
Griffin: Oakland 19-6 SU after 5 or more consecutive road games
Santana: LA Angels 5-13 SU after having won 15 or more of their last 20

[StarDust Bum]

UMMMMMMMM a bit of a setback yesterday but those days will come.....so onward we go....+163 Units i can deal with....

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/11/12 11-*19-*0 36.67% -*4225 Detail
09/10/12 11-*8-*1 57.89% +*1535 Detail
09/09/12 16-*11-*1 59.26% +*3980 Detail
09/08/12 9-*7-*2 56.25% +*895 Detail
09/07/12 15-*14-*1 51.72% +*215 Detail
09/06/12 5-*5-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/05/12 9-*5-*2 64.29% +*1985 Detail
09/04/12 17-*9-*3 65.38% +*5270 Detail
09/03/12 17-*11-*0 60.71% +*3655 Detail
09/02/12 18-*11-*1 62.07% +*3840 Detail
09/01/12 14-*13-*2 51.85% -*735 Detail

Totals 142-*113-*13 55.69% +16315

MLB

Wednesday, September 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 4:05 PM ET Miami +146 500
Philadelphia - Over 7 500

St. Louis - 6:35 PM ET San Diego +125 500
San Diego - Over 7 500

Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +115 500
Baltimore - Under 8.5 500

Seattle - 7:07 PM ET Seattle +121 500
Toronto - Over 9 500

NY Yankees - 7:10 PM ET Boston +145 500
Boston - Under 9.5 500

Washington - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -108 500
NY Mets - Under 7.5 500

Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati -138 500
Cincinnati - Over 8 500

Cleveland - 8:05 PM ET Cleveland +226 500
Texas - Under 10 500

Chi. Cubs - 8:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs -115 500
Houston - Under 8 500

Atlanta - 8:10 PM ET Atlanta +130 500
Milwaukee - Under 8 500

Detroit - 8:10 PM ET Detroit -138 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 9 500

Kansas City - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City -111 500
Minnesota - Over 9 500

San Francisco - 8:40 PM ET San Francisco -121 500
Colorado - Over 9.5 500

LA Dodgers - 9:40 PM ET Arizona -123 500
Arizona - Under 9 500